Millennial_Messiah
03-17-2024, 05:36 PM
I believe Matt Dolan will win the primary and the general unfortunately. He is extremely well funded. It will be the shy McCormick-PA-2022 vote on steroids. Dolan doesn't typically poll well, but he overperformed polls in the 2022 primary against Vance and co. and he's already polling close to Moreno just before the primary election. There are more establishment conservatives in Ohio than in PA. See the DeWine margin of victory in 2022.
Dolan will be Rob Portman 2.0, not the most socially conservative candidate, not the biggest ally of Trump but a generic Republican. The gay scandal will be enough to turn out evangelical conservative Ohioans against Moreno in the GOP primary under concerns of elooctability vs. Sherrod Brown.
Trump and Vance endorsed Moreno, but DeWine and a lot of the establishment endorsed Dolan, and Dolan has a ton of money. LaRose was probably the best "toe the line" candidate to win both the MAGA and establishment base, but unfortunately he never had much money.
I expect Dolan to win the primary on the back of establishment conservatives in the west and south parts of the state, plus the Cincinnati, north Columbus, and Cleveland suburbs. Moreno will do well in the remote areas near PA and WV, and in the Youngstown area, and maybe the north central area between Toledo and Lorain County, but it won't be enough. Dolan will win the general on the back of Trump and being pegged as generally a moderate.
Dolan will be Rob Portman 2.0, not the most socially conservative candidate, not the biggest ally of Trump but a generic Republican. The gay scandal will be enough to turn out evangelical conservative Ohioans against Moreno in the GOP primary under concerns of elooctability vs. Sherrod Brown.
Trump and Vance endorsed Moreno, but DeWine and a lot of the establishment endorsed Dolan, and Dolan has a ton of money. LaRose was probably the best "toe the line" candidate to win both the MAGA and establishment base, but unfortunately he never had much money.
I expect Dolan to win the primary on the back of establishment conservatives in the west and south parts of the state, plus the Cincinnati, north Columbus, and Cleveland suburbs. Moreno will do well in the remote areas near PA and WV, and in the Youngstown area, and maybe the north central area between Toledo and Lorain County, but it won't be enough. Dolan will win the general on the back of Trump and being pegged as generally a moderate.