Serious Question: Has Vassell ever come up in the clutch?

[scott]

I’ve brought this up in a few threads, but as Devin clanked an ill advised 28 footer in OT, it reminded me once again that I cannot think of a single instance where Devin has come up big in the clutch. I cannot think of a single time where he has made a game winning/tying/icing shot in his entire career. Even Keldon has a few of those.

The best I can think of is the play-in game against NO where DJM got into early Foul Trouble, Devin stepped up and hit 7 threes (notably, he didn’t make any 2pt FGs that game).

Looking at Devin’s clutch stats this season (however it is that the NBA defines that), he leads the team in clutch time minutes (112) but is 14-41 (34.1%) from the field, 6-23 from 3 (26.1%).

Should we be concerns that Devin lacks the clutch gene? Not only does he not make the big shots, his BBIQ also seems to drop by 50 points when it’s crunch time (evidences by some of the ill advised shots he takes).

This is my biggest reason that I’m actually not all that high on Devin and think we’d be best off cashing in on his potential this offseason and moving on.

[Dejounte]

The stance I often take is the one of high probability based on trends, actions, and words spoken.

The question of if Vassell should be a long term Spur or if the Spurs should sell high therefore depends on what actions the Spurs have done to show Vassell’s value on the team, how Vassell is trending up or down as far as his role on the team, and what has Spurs’ leadership (mainly Pop) said about Vassell.

1) what have the Spurs done
—they gave him a big contract. Now do the Spurs immediately ship players they commit big money to? Sure they do. They did it with Murray, but that was an entirely different situation when the team didnt have a foundation piece in Wemby. So i’ll give this a 50/50.

2) Vassell’s role on the team
—he’s given the keys in the offense in the clutch. There are plays with him and Victor that they have drawn up that shows there are efforts to feature him as the 1B on offense to Victor’s 1A. So this is in favor of Vassell.

3) Words about Vassel
—Pop constantly says that they’re trying to build a one two punch combo consisting of Vassell and Wemby. He is really viewing Vassell as the Robin to Wemby’s Batman. I think they will continue to until Vassell stagnates next season or drops off. This season can’t really be viewed as a failure for Vassell, since overall performance-wise, he has shown improvement. This is in favor of Vassel.

in summary, I don’t think the book is closed on Vassell to where the Spurs will want to sell high on him. There have been no indication that the Spurs are disappointed in his overall performance. An example of disappointment would be how Keldon was relegated to the bench. If Vassell’s flaws become severe enough to where Pop starts benching him or reducing his role, then that’s when I agree that his time is almost up. Until then, the Spurs probably believe his performances in the clutch will develop and improve over time.

[John B]

It would be on Wemby’s hands, but Devin is willing and able to take the last shot as the 2nd option, likewise Keldon as the 3rd option. I think this season has been that, baptism by fire. Last night, I was hoping they put Wesley on Brunson as the better defender, but Pop stayed with Tre, because win or lose, Pop wants Tre to get that experience for Tre’s personal growth. The kids are getting the mileage, that they wouldn’t had gotten had the PATFO signed veteran help. I’m not saying the Spurs will not get help this off-season. They should and they would, explore everything to surround Wemby with as much help.

Devin has shown willingness to take difficult shots. I think those difficult shots will become easier shots, as the whole team gets better, and should raise his FG percentage.

[Dejounte]

It would be on Wemby’s hands, but Devin is willing and able to take the last shot as the 2nd option, likewise Keldon as the 3rd option. I think this season has been that, baptism by fire. Last night, I was hoping they put Wesley on Brunson as the better defender, but Pop stayed with Tre, because win or lose, Pop wants Tre to get that experience for Tre’s personal growth. The kids are getting the mileage, that they wouldn’t had gotten had the PATFO signed veteran help. I’m not saying the Spurs will not get help this off-season. They should and they would, explore everything to surround Wemby with as much help.

Devin has shown willingness to take difficult shots. I think those difficult shots will become easier shots, as the whole team gets better, and should raise his FG percentage.

You keep saying you wish Wesley was on Brunson last night, but he was. He defended him plenty during the first half and did subpar. The broadcaster even commented on it.

[scott]

It would be on Wemby’s hands, but Devin is willing and able to take the last shot as the 2nd option, likewise Keldon as the 3rd option. I think this season has been that, baptism by fire. Last night, I was hoping they put Wesley on Brunson as the better defender, but Pop stayed with Tre, because win or lose, Pop wants Tre to get that experience for Tre’s personal growth. The kids are getting the mileage, that they wouldn’t had gotten had the PATFO signed veteran help. I’m not saying the Spurs will not get help this off-season. They should and they would, explore everything to surround Wemby with as much help.

Devin has shown willingness to take difficult shots. I think those difficult shots will become easier shots, as the whole team gets better, and should raise his FG percentage.

Yes, Devin is very willing to take the shots... but that isn't the question. Can you think of a single example of where he has made one?

[scott]

The stance I often take is the one of high probability based on trends, actions, and words spoken.

The question of if Vassell should be a long term Spur or if the Spurs should sell high therefore depends on what actions the Spurs have done to show Vassell’s value on the team, how Vassell is trending up or down as far as his role on the team, and what has Spurs’ leadership (mainly Pop) said about Vassell.

1) what have the Spurs done
—they gave him a big contract. Now do the Spurs immediately ship players they commit big money to? Sure they do. They did it with Murray, but that was an entirely different situation when the team didnt have a foundation piece in Wemby. So i’ll give this a 50/50.

2) Vassell’s role on the team
—he’s given the keys in the offense in the clutch. There are plays with him and Victor that they have drawn up that shows there are efforts to feature him as the 1B on offense to Victor’s 1A. So this is in favor of Vassell.

3) Words about Vassel
—Pop constantly says that they’re trying to build a one two punch combo consisting of Vassell and Wemby. He is really viewing Vassell as the Robin to Wemby’s Batman. I think they will continue to until Vassell stagnates next season or drops off. This season can’t really be viewed as a failure for Vassell, since overall performance-wise, he has shown improvement. This is in favor of Vassel.

in summary, I don’t think the book is closed on Vassell to where the Spurs will want to sell high on him. There have been no indication that the Spurs are disappointed in his overall performance. An example of disappointment would be how Keldon was relegated to the bench. If Vassell’s flaws become severe enough to where Pop starts benching him or reducing his role, then that’s when I agree that his time is almost up. Until then, the Spurs probably believe his performances in the clutch will develop and improve over time.

I appreciate the response and agree with pretty much everything you said... but it's not really answering the question. I don't think the Spurs will move on from Devin, but I'm looking for a (valid) discussion whether Devin has a clutch gene. Because despite what the Spurs FO might do, it could inform a fan's perspective of evaluating the team's path going forward. If PAFTO truly believes Devin can be a clutch player... maybe that can just be chalked up to another example of their relative subpar talent evaluation skills as of late.

[Jordan Jackson]

I’m withholding judgment until there is a legitimate 2nd option next to Wemby. Devin is probably being asked to do things above his skill level - at this moment.

[Dejounte]

I appreciate the response and agree with pretty much everything you said... but it's not really answering the question. I don't think the Spurs will move on from Devin, but I'm looking for a (valid) discussion whether Devin has a clutch gene. Because despite what the Spurs FO might do, it could inform a fan's perspective of evaluating the team's path going forward. If PAFTO truly believes Devin can be a clutch player... maybe that can just be chalked up to another example of their relative subpar talent evaluation skills as of late.


does Devin have the clutch gene?

—my ideal answer is “TBD” but some people won’t accept that. If i had to choose for now, I’ll say no and go by the evidence you’ve provided.

Should we be concerned about Devin lacking the clutch gene? And should that affect the team’s path forward?

—No and no. What percentage of games are determined by what happens in the clutch? I would hope the team’s goal to become a powerhouse involves them being a team that doesn’t find themselves in that position often (say, less than 10% of games). Their focus should be to construct a roster that blows out the other team for most of their wins and let the bench handle their business in fourth quarters. I just think the evaluation on Vassell has too much emphasis on how he performs in the clutch. LeBron was terrible in the clutch for the first quarter of his career, if anyone remembers that.

[scott]

What percentage of games are determined by what happens in the clutch?

This is actually a really good question.

This season, Pascal Siakam leads the league in games played in "clutch time" with 41. Obviously that is split between IND and TOR, so it's a little misleading. Dejounte Murray is #2 with 40 GP. Chicago appears third with 30, then GSW with 38.

Among good teams, MIL has played 36, PHX, 36, DEN 36, SAC 35, CLE 33, LAC 32, OKC 30. BOS, has played 29.

Looking at historically great Spurs teams, it looks like the 2013-2014 Spurs played 27 (at least that is how many Boris played in, which led the team). That year, Demar Derozan lead the league with 51 GP in "clutch".

The 2015-16 Spurs who won 67 games were led by LaMarcus with 26 clutch games played. Again, the league leader (Paul George) had 51.

The 2016-17 Spurs were lead by Kawhi with 37 GP. League leader was Bradly Beal with 53.

2006-07 Spurs were led by Bruce with 38 GP. KG led the league with 47.

2004-05 Spurs were led by Bruce with 29. KG led the league with 54.

2002-03 Spurs were led by Timmy with 43. Allen Houston led the league with 57.

1998-99 Spurs were lead by Avery Johnson with 20. Reggie Miller lead league with 36 (50 game season).

So it appears that when the Spurs are Championship level good, they play in about half the number of clutch time games than the league leaders, and about 35-45% of games played will end up "clutch time", which is still a significant number.

[Mr. Body]

I like how one person asks whether Vassell can do it in the clutch and another user immediately starts talking about trading him.

Never change, SpursTalk!

[Seventyniner]

Yes, Devin is very willing to take the shots... but that isn't the question. Can you think of a single example of where he has made one?

One single basket? I think you are being very reductionist here, both in this post and in the thread in general. The question shouldn't be "has Vassell ever come up in the clutch?" because a single example shows that the answer is "yes".

Instead, ask "does Vassell come up in the clutch enough?". This is a subjective question but at least opens the door for nuance.

Even then, there have been many papers and articles showing that the "clutch gene" doesn't exist. Here is one that looked at data from 2008-2019, meaning it is fairly recent.

https://www.econ.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/Can%20Sarioz%20-%20Honors%20Thesis.pdf


Even though clutch performances occur as singular events, they are not tied to
particular abilities possessed by certain players. With repeated evidence against clutch ability in
the literature and again in this paper, an interesting further research would be looking at the
underlying reasons why clutchness is still widely believed by the fans and the media.

One thing that does worry me about Vassell in particular is that he is a bad free throw shooter in the clutch. That is one stat that does have a correlation to clutch performance, albeit a weak one.

https://stats100blog.wordpress.com/2024/03/13/real-or-myth-an-exploration-of-the-clutch-gene-in-the-nba/


Thus, there seems to be no robust way to predict clutchness based on regular season performance, at least with multiple linear regression, however, the one silver lining is that there does seem to be a consistent, non-negligible relationship between free throw percentage and clutchness.

Vassell's FT% in clutch situations (defined by NBA.com as neither team leading by more than 5, in the last 5 minutes of the game) is 65% this season, 60% last season, and 50% two seasons ago. That is horrible. Still, the r^2 correlation value between clutch FT% and overall clutch elevation was only 0.218, which is pretty weak.

Overall, I wouldn't use stats, or especially highlights (or lowlights in this case) as a reason to believe Vassell will or will not be an effective player going forward. There are far more useful data points to use for such an argument.

[scott]

I like how one person asks whether Vassell can do it in the clutch and another user immediately starts talking about trading him.

Never change, SpursTalk!

I mean, I brought up trading him in the original post. Certainly not off topic.

[scott]

One single basket? I think you are being very reductionist here, both in this post and in the thread in general. The question shouldn't be "has Vassell ever come up in the clutch?" because a single example shows that the answer is "yes".



Great post and data, thank you.

In regards to being reductionist, I'm not trying to do so - I just legitimately struggle to think of a single instance where he delivered the game winning/tying/icing shot in his entire 4-year career here. I can think of several times when Keldon has done. Several when DJM did it. Several when Wemby has done it already. I can't for Devin (but I can recall the shots he's taken in these moments). Also a slight distinction, I used his clutch time stats (which you defined above), but I specifically refering to game winning/tying/icing situations (which yes, is reductionist in that regard).

I just question whether our #2 can be a #2 if he can't deliver in those big moments.

With that said, the links you provided look great and I look forward to diving into them.

[Mr. Body]

I mean, I brought up trading him in the original post. Certainly not off topic.

Right, everyone here is in a lunatic asylum.

[scott]

Right, everyone here is in a lunatic asylum.

Maybe you should just shoot yourself in the head?

[Mr. Body]

Maybe you should just shoot yourself in the head?

I do every time I come back to SpursTalk. Damn it, I promised myself to cut it out. There's decent draft stuff, but the opinions around here are just cack awful.

So... why the FUCK would you trade a really good and developing young SG just because he's not clutch? WHY THE FUCK WOULD YOU DO THIS. If he's not hitting clutch shots, YOU FIND ANOTHER PLAYER WHO CAN. YOU STILL NEED GOOD PLAYERS EVERY OTHER FUCKING PART OF THE GAME.

Wembanyama has been pretty miserable in the clutch, too, you know. Trade his fucking ass, too. Then we can whine about not having any players.

[scott]

I do every time I come back to SpursTalk. Damn it, I promised myself to cut it out. There's decent draft stuff, but the opinions around here are just cack awful.

So... why the FUCK would you trade a really good and developing young SG just because he's not clutch? WHY THE FUCK WOULD YOU DO THIS. If he's not hitting clutch shots, YOU FIND ANOTHER PLAYER WHO CAN. YOU STILL NEED GOOD PLAYERS EVERY OTHER FUCKING PART OF THE GAME.

Wembanyama has been pretty miserable in the clutch, too, you know. Trade his fucking ass, too. Then we can whine about not having any players.

IDK man, maybe it's because he isn't some role player. He's your supposed #2 who you are paying $30MM/year. You kind of need that guy to come up in big moments, not jack up contested 26-footers while we are up two with 24 seconds to play, or any of the other ill-advised decision making we've seen out of him in big moments. Maybe in his 8th year he'll finally be a contributor in clutch time?

As for Wemby, we've seen plenty of instances of him coming up big in these instances. I'd feel a lot more comfortable seeing Devin do it just once.

[John B]

You keep saying you wish Wesley was on Brunson last night, but he was. He defended him plenty during the first half and did subpar. The broadcaster even commented on it.

That was a general response to Pop putting a line-up to “get experience” as opposed to merely getting the W. I would think his defensive strategy would be different when winning matters more, i.e. playoff, etc. But to reiterate, the season is getting the experience. Devin has plenty of situations where he takes the difficult shots, make it or not. I agree with you, those clutch shots should be less as the Spurs develop a powerhouse that blows up competition, which should also raise the FG percentage for everyone. Bowen, Neal, Mills, Green, etc they all benefited from that “system” where roles where placed, and they didn’t have to decide on a fly. Likewise I expect the same once PATFO assembled that line-up where everyone would be “comfortable” with their respective roles, Devin as a 1B or not after infusing the necessary help, whether through draft, trades, etc. I think the whole team would have “easier shots,” thus the question whether Devin is a clutch shot is less significant, than is Devin willing and capable of taking shots. Yes he will.

[exstatic]

That one legged three pointer late against the Jazz was pretty clutch.

[scott]

That one legged three pointer late against the Jazz was pretty clutch.

A nice shot with the shot clock running down... in the first half of a game.

[JPB]

I do every time I come back to SpursTalk. Damn it, I promised myself to cut it out. There's decent draft stuff, but the opinions around here are just cack awful.



People's opinions diverge and a lot of things here, but one thing most people will agree on is that this board's quality and fun would rise by 100% just by you staying away, and the "godam, isn't this weird guy annyoing with his constant "me against all this stupid posters" schitck in every freaking thread" would drop by 100% in everybody's head..., specially when said weird guy has some of the worst takes ever.

[MannyIsGod]

Hard to judge how clutch a player is when he's on shit teams that allow the defense to focus on him in end game situations and when he has a coach that is awful at end of game situations. An unanswerable question imo.

[MannyIsGod]

People's opinions diverge and a lot of things here, but one thing most people will agree on here is that this board's quality and fun would rise by 100% just by you staying away, and the "godam, isn't this weird guy annyoing with his constant "me against all this stupid posters" schitck in every freaking thread" would drop by 100% in everybody's head...

1000000000%

[scott]

Hard to judge how clutch a player is when he's on shit teams that allow the defense to focus on him in end game situations and when he has a coach that is awful at end of game situations. An unanswerable question imo.

Fair AF, tbqh

[Light]

Vassell has hit big shots late in games, but the not the "clutch" shot as been defined in this thread.

[JPB]

To the point, I believe that probable absence of clutch/killer gene is one of the reasons that will keep Devin's ceiling as an elite role player and a 3rd or even 4th option on a contender.

And I do'nt see any real future in that Devin/Wemby combo, when Devin isn't a playmaker nor elite driver and is pretty bad at throwing lobs. I see his future in a contending spurs team as a pure shooting guard, next to a star PG. i don't believe you want him with the ball in his hands in the clutch, but rather as a spot up shooter with Wemby or your star PG (or swingman) making the plays...

[baseline bum]

I’ve brought this up in a few threads, but as Devin clanked an ill advised 28 footer in OT, it reminded me once again that I cannot think of a single instance where Devin has come up big in the clutch. I cannot think of a single time where he has made a game winning/tying/icing shot in his entire career. Even Keldon has a few of those.

The best I can think of is the play-in game against NO where DJM got into early Foul Trouble, Devin stepped up and hit 7 threes (notably, he didn’t make any 2pt FGs that game).

Looking at Devin’s clutch stats this season (however it is that the NBA defines that), he leads the team in clutch time minutes (112) but is 14-41 (34.1%) from the field, 6-23 from 3 (26.1%).

Should we be concerns that Devin lacks the clutch gene? Not only does he not make the big shots, his BBIQ also seems to drop by 50 points when it’s crunch time (evidences by some of the ill advised shots he takes).

This is my biggest reason that I’m actually not all that high on Devin and think we’d be best off cashing in on his potential this offseason and moving on.

I remember Devin hitting a pretty crazy scoop shot layup over Chet with 1:30 left in the OKC game February 29th but it was more the basket to seal the win vs say being one to decide it.

[The Truth #6]

I thought he hit clutch shots last year iirc. I thought he would be better this year in that regard but I don't think he's unclutch.

[MultiTroll]

A nice shot with the shot clock running down... in the first half of a game.
And the Jazz obviously tanking.

But the 1st half part is the clincher. :lol

[MultiTroll]

Should we be concerns that Devin lacks the clutch gene? Not only does he not make the big shots, his BBIQ also seems to drop by 50 points when it’s crunch time (evidences by some of the ill advised shots he takes).

This is my biggest reason that I’m actually not all that high on Devin and think we’d be best off cashing in on his potential this offseason and moving on.
Chucking ballhoggy shot last night when Wemby had rolled to the FT line and was wide open was and is absolute b.s.
Don't wanna hear about how "young" or "inexperienced" Vassell is. That was pure selfish Meball.
Only caveat i can say is since he does not have a coach, perhaps if and when the Spurs do get a competent coach he can be taught / encouraged / ney threatened to pass to the wide open man with the 10Xs better shot options in the clutch.

#2 or #3 option to Wemby in the future? Looks like no effing way at this point.
While GNob and Parker may be far too high a bar for Robbin and Robbin status for Vassell, regardless both of them came up clutch a zillion times. As scott has noted, name even one time Vassell has. Even if you can find one, how many eggs has he laid in the clutch? Dozens.

[baseline bum]

And the Jazz obviously tanking.

But the 1st half part is the clincher. :lol

I don't think so, they were playing their guys.

[Light]

I thought he hit clutch shots last year iirc. I thought he would be better this year in that regard but I don't think he's unclutch.

the game that comes to mind is the one against the Heat where he hit a couple of big shots that iced the game.

[Pauleta14]

Vassel’s struggle comes from his difficulty at creating a gap between him and the defender. He’s just not a great ball handler and ends up taking difficult shots which lowers his %

We’ve been saying all year long he needs a PG as much as Wemby

As for the option of trading him, it’s not an absurd one considering his coming salary and his attractiveness for potential teams we’d like to trade with.

It’s been 4 seasons already and he hasn’t shown any Allstar potential (a requirement to be part of a Big2 or Big3)

[MultiTroll]

I don't think so, they were playing their guys.
Eyeball test. Any time they got close, funny plays would happen.

If you look at where the Jazz are in the standings, they absolutely want to stay below Brooklyn. Can also catch and pass Memphis and Toronto, however unlikely.

[rascal]

Eyeball test. Any time they got close, funny plays would happen.

If you look at where the Jazz are in the standings, they absolutely want to stay below Brooklyn. Can also catch and pass Memphis and Toronto, however unlikely.

The Jazz fo has no desire to win games. They are on an 8 game losing streak.

[TD 21]

"Clutch" doesn't exist and is a term mostly used to mythologize certain individuals who have been or are cash cows for the league.

Of course Vassell, a secondary creator at heart (lacks a tight handle, explosive athleticism and overwhelming strength) that's been forced into a lead role, would struggle when defenses antennas are naturally up in "clutch time" (defined as within' 5 in the last 5 minutes).

Put him in his proper role, give him a large enough sample size and he'd most likely more or less progress to his mean.

[baseline bum]

Eyeball test. Any time they got close, funny plays would happen.

If you look at where the Jazz are in the standings, they absolutely want to stay below Brooklyn. Can also catch and pass Memphis and Toronto, however unlikely.

Players don't tank, they're trying to get paid. Front offices and occasionally coaches do, put players never have any incentive to.

[scott]

the game that comes to mind is the one against the Heat where he hit a couple of big shots that iced the game.

Thanks, I don't remember this one - but I definitely believe ya'll and this is good to hear.

[scott]

"Clutch" doesn't exist and is a term mostly used to mythologize certain individuals who have been or are cash cows for the league.

Of course Vassell, a secondary creator at heart (lacks a tight handle, explosive athleticism and overwhelming strength) that's been forced into a lead role, would struggle when defenses antennas are naturally up in "clutch time" (defined as within' 5 in the last 5 minutes).

Put him in his proper role, give him a large enough sample size and he'd most likely more or less progress to his mean.

This is the only part that I'm not sure I agree with. Some players elevate their game when the big moment arrives (Robert Horry), some shrivel up in the moment (James Harden). In the case of Big Shot Rob, the "big moment" came in the form of single plays to close out the game. For Harden, it's not only big individual moments but also big games in general. To Vassell's credit, the only "big game" of consequence he has ever played in (the Play-in game vs NOP), he game up big.

[z0sa]

To the point, I believe that probable absence of clutch/killer gene is one of the reasons that will keep Devin's ceiling as an elite role player and a 3rd or even 4th option on a contender.

And I do'nt see any real future in that Devin/Wemby combo, when Devin isn't a playmaker nor elite driver and is pretty bad at throwing lobs. I see his future in a contending spurs team as a pure shooting guard, next to a star PG. i don't believe you want him with the ball in his hands in the clutch, but rather as a spot up shooter with Wemby or your star PG (or swingman) making the plays...

+1

Vassell should be a guy who can drop 30 on any given night with basically no dribbles. That role's definitely not #2 on a contender but it might be a pretty good #3.

[TDMVPDPOY]

i dont believe in clutch, if u that good, ur team shouldnt be playing from behind to rely on a last shot win, u hit it..they call you clutch, u miss it they call you a scrub

td never in his life time rely on situations like that to pull out a miracle win cause his to busy winning games at a 71%, they dont call him clutch, they call him a winner...

[JeffDuncan]

…
Should we be [concerned] that Devin lacks the clutch gene? …



I’d say the short answer is, no. The reason being, Vassell isn’t the team’s #1 player. It’s like wondering if Reaves is clutch, when he’s playing with LeBron late in a Fakers game. It would be usual to focus on Reaves.

Of course anything is fair in a basketball discussion. No problem, as far as that goes. But is this the correct focus?

As far as him clanking a 28-footer in OT, the question it raises for me, is the team’s coaching clutch? Why does that situation even arise?



This is my biggest reason that I’m actually not all that high on Devin and think we’d be best off cashing in on his potential this offseason and moving on.


With all the problems the team has, it would be absurd to actively shop Vassell. He’s a 20 ppg shooting guard, within half a point, and he has some respectable defensive ability (when the coaches are doing their job.) Replacing Vassell has got to be way way down on the priority list.

[Light]

Thanks, I don't remember this one - but I definitely believe ya'll and this is good to hear.

This is the game I was thinking of. First possession comes at the 8:11 mark where he extends the lead. He then hits the go-ahead shot on the next possession. It's not quite the buzzer beater or last possession situations he's come up short in, so I'd still like to see him be better in those moments.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXio7thLnHk

[LeBowen]

The biggest issue for Devin is that his archetype is way too common in the NBA which lowers his value by a lot.

6'5 guard with average athleticism and subpar playmaking? Yeah, he's got the scoring fundamentals down and is becoming a great 3pt shooter, but is he someone worth 30% of the cap?
He's a good player, will probably end up as one of those players who gets his without most people noticing it, but that's just not enough for someone who's also not that great of a defender. He's solid, but right now the only skills he excels at are mid-range and 3pt shooting. He can't even get to the line.

In my subjective opinion, not good enough.
Yes, he's not a finished product and can get better, but if he can't impose himself on singificantly worse offensive players like Jeremy and Tre, I don't think he'll ever be able to do it when we get an actual playoff roster.

If only Devin got a contract similar to Keldon's, he'd definitely be worth keeeping, but for me he's not worth 30M a year.
Scoring 20, even 25 a game isn't good enough if you don't do anything else as a guard, especially if you're not the decisive factor in the clutch in most games.

[scott]

Curiosity got the better of me, so I went and looked at the game logs of close games the Spurs have played (which I defined as a final margin of less than 8 points) and looked specifically at the last 2:00 and then last 1:00 of play in both the 4Q and OT.

This is imperfect because Devin definitely could have impacted the game in some non-boxscore way that doesn't show up in the play-by-play, but that's the best I can do without watching all these games again



Date
Score
Vassell From 2:00 to 1:01
Vassell Last 1 Min


10/25
DAL 126 @SA 119
Devin does not appear in the play-by-play (DNA)
Devin 27-foot 3PA blocked by Grant Williams (Down 7 with 17 seconds)


10/27
@SA 126 HOU 122 (OT)
DNA Reg / DNA OT
DNA Reg / Devin Misses 2 FT with 21.1 to play in OT up 4


10/31
SA 115 @PHX 114
1:38 Devin DREB down 3

1:23 Devin misses 10-foot shot down 3
22.1 Devin DREB down 3

8.1 Devin misses 25-foot 3PA down 3


11/5
TOR 123 @SA 116 (OT)
DNP
DNP


11/10
MIN 117 @SA 110
1:25 Devin out of bounds lost ball TO down 8

1:21 Devin personal take foul down 8

1:04 Devin makes 3 FTs
DNA


11/12
MIA 118 @SA 113
1:06 Devin misses 11-foot shot down 4
DNA


11/17
SAC 129 @SA 120
DNP
DNP


11/22
LAC 109 @SA 102
DNP
DNP


11/24
@GS 118 SA 112
1:31 Devin makes 28-foot 3PA to cut lead to 8
27.2 Devin personal foul down 4

13.1 Devin personal foul down 4


11/30
ATL 137 SA 135
DNP
DNP


12/6
@MIN 102 SA 94
1:20 Devin makes 23-ft 3PA to cut lead to 8
31.0 Devin DREB down 8


12/13
LAL 122 @SA 119
DNA
DNA (I think Branham was in the game for Devin the last two minutes based on the play-by-play, I don't remember if Devin got hurt in this game?)


12/29
@POR 134 SA 128
DNA
56.0 Devin makes 32-ft 3PA to cut lead to 10

48.1 Devin take foul

9.2 Devin misses 25-ft 3PA down 7


1/2
@MEM 106 SA 98
1:18 Devin DREB down 10
DNA


1/4
MIL 125 @SA 121
DNA
22.1 Devin DREB down 3


1/7
@CLE 117 SA 115
1:07 Devin DREB down 9
DNA


2/22
@SAC 127 SA 122
DNA
14.0 Devin Take Foul down 3

(Note, Devin made a 3 at 2:12 to put us up by 4)


2/23
@LAL 123 SA 118
DNA
DNA

Note: this game not as close as final score indicates. We had Mamu and Blake in at the end of the game.


3/7
@SAC 131 SA 129
1:55 Devin out of bounds bad pass TO up 1
0.2 Devin misses 28-ft 3PA down 2. This was the play where it appeared Wemby was open on a cut to the basket, but it's not clear whether there was time to make the pass. 0.2 is when Sochan rebounded Devin's shot.


3/12
@HOU 103 SA 101
1:31 Devin makes 26-foot 3PA to put us down 4
8.2 Devin take foul down 1

3.1 Devin makes 1 of 2 FT to put us down 2 (he missed second FT on purpose)


3/17
@SA 122 BKY 115 (OT)
DNA reg

1:33 OT Devin misses 25-ft 3PA down 1
29.2 Devin misses 25-ft 3 up 3 in reg

38,0 OT Devin assists Wemby ally oop to put us up 1


3/19
DAL 113 @SA 107
1:07 Devin makes layup to cut lead to 3
DNA


3/22
MEM 99 @SA 97
DNA
42.1 Devin misses 26-ft 3PA down 4

24.1 Devin makes 23-ft 3PA to cut lead to 3


3/25
@SA 104 PHX 102
DNA
56.1 Devin misses 25-ft 3PA up 1


3/27
SA 118 @UTA 111
DNA
3.2 Devin DREB up 6

3.2 Devin makes 1 of 2 FT to increase lead to 7


3/29
@SA 130 NYK 126 (OT)
1:29 Devin assists Wemby ally oop to tie game in 4th

DNA in OT
DNA in 4th

25.0 OT - Devin Misses 24-foot step back 3PA up 2




Couple of observation here:


when Devin takes shots at the end of games they are almost always 3PA.
to his semi-credit, a lot of those missed 3PA were in desperation time
Devin's name appears a lot less than Keldon's as I went through this. Not sure how I feel about that :lol
There are a few 3PA (3 specifically in my mind) that were questionable decisions (and they all missed). It's a biased POV, but those stand out most in my memory bank.
His 3 with 24 seconds to go against MEM to cut it to 3 is probably the biggest shot he's made this season... which isn't really saying much.

[Seventyniner]

The biggest issue for Devin is that his archetype is way too common in the NBA which lowers his value by a lot.

6'5 guard with average athleticism and subpar playmaking? Yeah, he's got the scoring fundamentals down and is becoming a great 3pt shooter, but is he someone worth 30% of the cap?

Vassell's salary of $29.3M next year will be around 21% of the $141M salary cap, if that changes your view as to his worth.

[exstatic]

The biggest issue for Devin is that his archetype is way too common in the NBA which lowers his value by a lot.

6'5 guard with average athleticism and subpar playmaking? Yeah, he's got the scoring fundamentals down and is becoming a great 3pt shooter, but is he someone worth 30% of the cap?
He's a good player, will probably end up as one of those players who gets his without most people noticing it, but that's just not enough for someone who's also not that great of a defender. He's solid, but right now the only skills he excels at are mid-range and 3pt shooting. He can't even get to the line.

In my subjective opinion, not good enough.
Yes, he's not a finished product and can get better, but if he can't impose himself on singificantly worse offensive players like Jeremy and Tre, I don't think he'll ever be able to do it when we get an actual playoff roster.

If only Devin got a contract similar to Keldon's, he'd definitely be worth keeeping, but for me he's not worth 30M a year.
Scoring 20, even 25 a game isn't good enough if you don't do anything else as a guard, especially if you're not the decisive factor in the clutch in most games.

$30M isn’t 30% of the cap ($135M) fool, (22.2%) and the contract decreases as it goes. This is the most expensive year at $29.7, and as the cap increases annually, his contract becomes a smaller and smaller percentage.

[scott]

i dont believe in clutch, if u that good, ur team shouldnt be playing from behind to rely on a last shot win, u hit it..they call you clutch, u miss it they call you a scrub

td never in his life time rely on situations like that to pull out a miracle win cause his to busy winning games at a 71%, they dont call him clutch, they call him a winner...

As I posted earlier, even in years when the Spurs were championship caliber (or champions), about 35-45% of their games were still "clutch" games (meaning a 5-point game with less than 5 minutes to play). And we can post lots of highlights of Timmy (or Manu, or Tony, or Sean, or Horry, or lots of other players) hitting big shots. If you're just going to rely on the games you win by 10+ and concede the rest, you're going to lose a lot more games.

[scott]

$30M isn’t 30% of the cap ($135M) fool, (22.2%) and the contract decreases as it goes. This is the most expensive year at $29.7, and as the cap increases annually, his contract becomes a smaller and smaller percentage.

One small correction, NEXT year is the most expensive year. His extension hasn't kicked in yet, he is still on his rookie deal this season.

[scott]

This is the game I was thinking of. First possession comes at the 8:11 mark where he extends the lead. He then hits the go-ahead shot on the next possession. It's not quite the buzzer beater or last possession situations he's come up short in, so I'd still like to see him be better in those moments.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXio7thLnHk

Thanks for this. This is definitely some the killer energy from Devin that I want to see, definitely better than what we've seen this season - but that could just be a function of the opportunities Devin has had this season (though he's not really risen to the occasion when he has had this this year)

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Is anyone truly clutch on a team that’s this bad?

[LeBowen]

Vassell's salary of $29.3M next year will be around 21% of the $141M salary cap, if that changes your view as to his worth.

You're right, obviously.
My bad, I wrote 30% instead of 20% for some reason.

I'm still sticking with my opiinon if we're talking this version of Vassell.
He either needs to become a better playmaker or a better defender to be worth that deal.
Or just explode as a scorer.

But maybe I'm wrong, I was just never a fan of guards who just score and don't do much else unless they're microwave scorers off the bench.
Obviously, exclude MVP level players, I'm talking about your average guards.


Is anyone truly clutch on a team that’s this bad?

Good point. For me it's about who takes the responsibility.
Obviously, some of it is on Pop's decision making, but since he's supposed to be the second best player on the team, he's got to be more assertive.

[rankingtear]

The clutch thing does not exist. He just needs to clean up his dribble pull up from three. I think it is up 5% from last season so it is trending up.

[Spurminator]

Vassell's ceiling just seems to be Tim Hardaway Jr IMO. That's not a #2 on a contending team but might be able to be your #3 sometimes, provided you have other players who can be #3's on his off nights. THJ has never struck me as the guy you want taking the last shots either.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

https://www.si.com/nba/spurs/news/san-antonio-spurs-devin-vassell-making-most-closer-role-miami-heat

:lol shitbag

[Tyronn Lue]

Most players don't do "well" in the clutch. Those times someone does it becomes bigger than the stats will bear out vs the conversation around it. I don't know that Devin has had that many opportunities to make clutch shots, but in a game like last night, all those baskets were clutch.

[Pauleta14]

I’d say the short answer is, no. The reason being, Vassell isn’t the team’s #1 player. It’s like wondering if Reaves is clutch, when he’s playing with LeBron late in a Fakers game. It would be usual to focus on Reaves.

Of course anything is fair in a basketball discussion. No problem, as far as that goes. But is this the correct focus?

As far as him clanking a 28-footer in OT, the question it raises for me, is the team’s coaching clutch? Why does that situation even arise?




With all the problems the team has, it would be absurd to actively shop Vassell. He’s a 20 ppg shooting guard, within half a point, and he has some respectable defensive ability (when the coaches are doing their job.) Replacing Vassell has got to be way way down on the priority list.


2 points

1- « Devin will have the ball on his hand for us at the end of games » , récent quote from Pop…

I agree with you on the principle but Pop seems to see Devin with a Manu role at the end of games. He just dorsmt have to handled or craftiness to have this role imo

2- I don’t think anyone wants to ACTIVELY shop Vassell as much as being opened to use him in a big trade, because of his coming salary and attractiveness for teams.
It’d be a matter of opportunity more than will to « get rid of him »

[Proxy]

huh? He came up in the clutch just against the knicks?? and the jazz... how does ST define clutch... it's like a cowboys fan shitting on romo for throwing an interception when he had a shit O-line and had to make something happen in the 4th

[Slippy]

2 points

1- « Devin will have the ball on his hand for us at the end of games » , récent quote from Pop…

I agree with you on the principle but Pop seems to see Devin with a Manu role at the end of games. He just dorsmt have to handled or craftiness to have this role imo

2- I don’t think anyone wants to ACTIVELY shop Vassell as much as being opened to use him in a big trade, because of his coming salary and attractiveness for teams.
It’d be a matter of opportunity more than will to « get rid of him »

My point . Just maybe pop see's something in practice we all dont .

The improvement I've seen in Devins game this season. I'm pretty confident he will grow as a player when it comes to late game heroics. A better PG and spurs being in position to actually win majority of their games will help bigtime.

Relying on stats to prove a player isn't clutch on a consistently losing team can easily mislead

[exstatic]

2 points

1- « Devin will have the ball on his hand for us at the end of games » , récent quote from Pop…

I agree with you on the principle but Pop seems to see Devin with a Manu role at the end of games. He just dorsmt have to handled or craftiness to have this role imo

2- I don’t think anyone wants to ACTIVELY shop Vassell as much as being opened to use him in a big trade, because of his coming salary and attractiveness for teams.
It’d be a matter of opportunity more than will to « get rid of him »

While that may be your POV, I don’t think it’s even remotely true.

[Pauleta14]

My point . Just maybe pop see's something in practice we all dont .

The improvement I've seen in Devins game this season. I'm pretty confident he will grow as a player when it comes to late game heroics. A better PG and spurs being in position to actually win majority of their games will help bigtime.

Relying on stats to prove a player isn't clutch on a consistently losing team can easily mislead

Let’s make it easier, do you see Vassell becoming an Allstar?

If the answer is no, he just can’t be part of a Big 2 or 3. As simple as that

What could Pop have seen in him that would suddenly appears after 4-5 years? Genuine question…

Vassell can either be an amazing elite role player or an underwhelming “main” player. That’s the crazy thing about him. He should be admiring for his shooting but all we see is his inabilities to do stuff … he’s not supposed to be good at!! :lol


If Vassell has the ball in last minutes by default (bc horrible roster) I get it this season. If Pop sees him having this role long term I genuinely lost …

[Pauleta14]

While that may be your POV, I don’t think it’s even remotely true.

At best a couple angry STers but I haven’t seen much honestly. Most have the same position than mine, it’s all about opportunities AND it makes sense (contrary to some Uber protective who think he’s HIM).

[Dejounte]

Contrary to popular belief, certain qualities about players (such as if they have all-star potential or not) is not always clear in their first few years. It’s ok to say “we don’t know yet” on a player. History shows that plenty of times there are players who don’t show any indication they’ll be all-stars in their first few years. Tony Parker and Manu’s (to a lesser extent) legacies were carried due to the fact they won championships on the coattails of Tim Duncan. In basketball circles, these two were scarcely mentioned in top 5’s or top 10’s of anything in that era. Only when they were forced to did they start having to include them in anything.

Neither of these guys were statistically impressive early in their careers. It wasn’t until the rise of advanced statistics in basketball that they became more appreciative of what they did— most notably Ginobili for his per minute metrics.

For people to say “I knew they would be good early on because of Tony’s speed and Manu’s winning ways in Euroleague yadda, yadda, yadda” is total bullshit.

More recent examples of top players who were late bloomers:
-Jimmy Butler - was not blowing anyone away in his first three years
-Jalen Brunson - this guy is the PERFECT example of someone who didn’t show anything close to what he’s showing now
-Kyle Lowry - it wasnt until he was 26 before he came a multiple All Star
-Murray - no one believed he would be this good until the very end
-Pascal Siakam - took him four years
-Vanfleet - same as above

[Pauleta14]

Contrary to popular belief, certain qualities about players (such as if they have all-star potential or not) is not always clear in their first few years. It’s ok to say “we don’t know yet” on a player. History shows that plenty of times there are players who don’t show any indication they’ll be all-stars in their first few years. Tony Parker and Manu’s (to a lesser extent) legacies were carried due to the fact they won championships on the coattails of Tim Duncan. In basketball circles, these two were scarcely mentioned in top 5’s or top 10’s of anything in that era. Only when they were forced to did they start having to include them in anything.

Neither of these guys were statistically impressive early in their careers. It wasn’t until the rise of advanced statistics in basketball that they became more appreciative of what they did— most notably Ginobili for his per minute metrics.

For people to say “I knew they would be good early on because of Tony’s speed and Manu’s winning ways in Euroleague yadda, yadda, yadda” is total bullshit.

More recent examples of top players who were late bloomers:
-Jimmy Butler - was not blowing anyone away in his first three years
-Jalen Brunson - this guy is the PERFECT example of someone who didn’t show anything close to what he’s showing now
-Kyle Lowry - it wasnt until he was 26 before he came a multiple All Star
-Murray - no one believed he would be this good until the very end
-Pascal Siakam - took him four years
-Vanfleet - same as above

not sure I get the relevance of ur list of players tbh they’re eastern conference players lmao even Barnes was an Allstar this season and he’s a lot more complete than Vassell.

the question is simple, after 4 years of watching him develop do you see Vassell reaching Allstar level (forget being selected, too much popular vs deserving)?

I truly don’t

I’d gladly be wrong so please explain me if you think he can become one, why and what am I missing?

[ambchang]

The same logic would have had the bulls trading away Scottie Pippen in the late 80s, mchale in early 80s and kobe in the early 00s. How many clutch shots did unibrow make in his first four years with the pels?

[The Truth #6]

I think the issue people have is his salary. It was done in a post Wemby lottery manic episode, basically. But as far as how he's playing, I think the high salary puts him in a role where he is supposed to be taking big shots, handling the ball a lot. I think Devin understandably is playing like someone with a big contract. They have to get a #2 to make him a #3 in the pecking order to make it balance out. So to speak.

[Dejounte]

not sure I get the relevance of ur list of players tbh they’re eastern conference players lmao even Barnes was an Allstar this season and he’s a lot more complete than Vassell.

the question is simple, after 4 years of watching him develop do you see Vassell reaching Allstar level (forget being selected, too much popular vs deserving)?

I truly don’t

I’d gladly be wrong so please explain me if you think he can become one, why and what am I missing?

The question is simple and the answer is simple: I don’t know if Vassell will reach all star status based on what I’ve seen because I don’t think my opinion or the opinion of many others matter because everybody gets it wrong. It’s like I said, what players show in their first years is sometimes not indicative of who they will become. It’s OK to say we don’t know and to wait. That’s the entire point. It’s a simple answer but it’s throws an error in people’s brains sometimes like, “DOES NOT COMPUTE”.

When a player regresses or stagnates, that’s usually the only sign that a player won’t reach higher levels. Period.

[Pauleta14]

The question is simple and the answer is simple: I don’t know if Vassell will reach all star status based on what I’ve seen because I don’t think my opinion or the opinion of many others matter because everybody gets it wrong. It’s like I said, what players show in their first years is sometimes not indicative of who they will become. It’s OK to say we don’t know and to wait. That’s the entire point. It’s a simple answer but it’s throws an error in people’s brains sometimes like, “DOES NOT COMPUTE”.

When a player regresses or stagnates, that’s usually the only sign that a player won’t reach higher levels. Period.

What kind of answer is that?? :lol

of course none of us can see the future, but stop me if I’m wrong the idea of a forum is to exchange pov and perspectives, solutions etc about the Spurs no?

You say we can’t know the first years …. but Vassell has been there for FOUR years! It’s not enough for you to have an idea of a player’s abilities and potential?

If he was playing in the East, why not with injuries and if his team does really well but Vassell has ZERO chances to ever be an Allstar in the West! None

everything in Vassell’s games says (potential elite) rôle player. It’s not hating it’s just observations.

And I’m far from being the toughest critic about him

[exstatic]

What kind of answer is that?? :lol

of course none of us can see the future, but stop me if I’m wrong the idea of a forum is to exchange pov and perspectives, solutions etc about the Spurs no?

You say we can’t know the first years …. but Vassell has been there for FOUR years! It’s not enough for you to have an idea of a player’s abilities and potential?

If he was playing in the East, why not with injuries and if his team does really well but Vassell has ZERO chances to ever be an Allstar in the West! None

everything in Vassell’s games says (potential elite) rôle player. It’s not hating it’s just observations.

And I’m far from being the toughest critic about him

SGA didn’t make an ASG in his first four years.

[MannyIsGod]

Its impossible to say taht Devin can't be an all star right now. Its unlikely, tbh, but it's definitely not an insignificant chance. The same people saying Devin cant' be an all star are likely the same people that didn't believe Dejounte Could be an all star.

[MannyIsGod]

Vassell's ceiling just seems to be Tim Hardaway Jr IMO. That's not a #2 on a contending team but might be able to be your #3 sometimes, provided you have other players who can be #3's on his off nights. THJ has never struck me as the guy you want taking the last shots either.

I strongly disagree with this. Vassal in his current year is already better than any season Hardaway has had and already has a more efficient game than him much less in his 4th year in the league. Even with no improvement he's already step above him, IMO. There's no way I'm completely writing off Vassal taking another step. Even modest improvement makes him substantially better.

[Sugus]

Lol, wow, it's fucking funny seeing Spurs fans saying shit like "clutchness doesn't exist". Having seen Manu's entire career and you truly can't believe some players can and do rise up to the moment more than others?

Manu Ginóbili is and forever will be a legend, an Olympic Gold medalist and a Champion - because of his clutch performanceS. He had his fair share of mistakes as any human does, but he was undeniably clutch. James Harden is, similarly and statistically, unclutch, as well.

No wonder the legendary play that took place when they crossed paths; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjUgDgcAIXY . There's entire compilations of Manu clutch shots, FFS.

[Pauleta14]

SGA didn’t make an ASG in his first four years.

Mate I’m not trying to win an argument for the sake of it so please stop acting stupid, you know what I mean.

SGA had allstar potential and that’s why OKC traded for him to make him the center piece of their project, Vassell isn’t, not because he sucks, he’s an elite shooter, but in today’s NBA (probably ever actually ^^) you can’t be an allstar guard without the ability to create separation with 1st step or great handles. That’s the main requirement to have the ball in the last seconds of a game.

Vassell has shown he can be an elite role player and it’s not an insult to say so, you don’t expect after +4 years a player to change RADICALLY the player he is and incorporate stuff that are worked on from a very young age or are natural.

We’ve seen many times Vassell struggle when pressed in the last possession and ending either taking a bad shot or bad pass because he couldn’t create a separation.

[Pauleta14]

Its impossible to say taht Devin can't be an all star right now. Its unlikely, tbh, but it's definitely not an insignificant chance. The same people saying Devin cant' be an all star are likely the same people that didn't believe Dejounte Could be an all star.

Murray always had the potential at least physically, iircc he had off court issues or doubts that made him slip to the 28Th

Anyways, I’d love to be wrong, we’ll see

[rankingtear]

You're right, obviously.
My bad, I wrote 30% instead of 20% for some reason.

I'm still sticking with my opiinon if we're talking this version of Vassell.
He either needs to become a better playmaker or a better defender to be worth that deal.
Or just explode as a scorer.

But maybe I'm wrong, I was just never a fan of guards who just score and don't do much else unless they're microwave scorers off the bench.
Obviously, exclude MVP level players, I'm talking about your average guards.



Good point. For me it's about who takes the responsibility.
Obviously, some of it is on Pop's decision making, but since he's supposed to be the second best player on the team, he's got to be more assertive.

It is like 16% of the cap on average for 5 years. Rookie max is 25%. When Wemby extension kicks in, it is just 13% of the projected cap equivalent to 18 million this year. That is the 5th highest salary on BOS payroll. It is one of the best value contract right now, the cap landscape would change after 2025 and it runs through that.

[rankingtear]

Lol, wow, it's fucking funny seeing Spurs fans saying shit like "clutchness doesn't exist". Having seen Manu's entire career and you truly can't believe some players can and do rise up to the moment more than others?

Manu Ginóbili is and forever will be a legend, an Olympic Gold medalist and a Champion - because of his clutch performanceS. He had his fair share of mistakes as any human does, but he was undeniably clutch. James Harden is, similarly and statistically, unclutch, as well.

No wonder the legendary play that took place when they crossed paths; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjUgDgcAIXY . There's entire compilations of Manu clutch shots, FFS.

If Devin improves his pull up 3 percentage then naturally he would become more "clutch". If he is the guarded by the second best perimeter defender on the other team when we get another creator then he becomes more "clutch". If Devin shoots 25% on clutch situations but has several of them to make a youtube highlight video then he becomes more "clutch".

[poopbox]

What 4th year players on bad teams are "coming up in the clutch":lol

[JPB]

Lol, wow, it's fucking funny seeing Spurs fans saying shit like "clutchness doesn't exist". Having seen Manu's entire career and you truly can't believe some players can and do rise up to the moment more than others?

Manu Ginóbili is and forever will be a legend, an Olympic Gold medalist and a Champion - because of his clutch performanceS. He had his fair share of mistakes as any human does, but he was undeniably clutch. James Harden is, similarly and statistically, unclutch, as well.

No wonder the legendary play that took place when they crossed paths; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjUgDgcAIXY . There's entire compilations of Manu clutch shots, FFS.

Yeah, weird that an NBA fan can imagine clutchness doesn't exist.

Clutchness is litterally what separates good from great players, the former ones fading, the later ones rising, putting the team on their shoulder and making plays when the game is on the line.

Non clutch players don't want the last shot in game 7, clutch players live for that shot.

[scott]

Lol, wow, it's fucking funny seeing Spurs fans saying shit like "clutchness doesn't exist". Having seen Manu's entire career and you truly can't believe some players can and do rise up to the moment more than others?

Manu Ginóbili is and forever will be a legend, an Olympic Gold medalist and a Champion - because of his clutch performanceS. He had his fair share of mistakes as any human does, but he was undeniably clutch. James Harden is, similarly and statistically, unclutch, as well.

No wonder the legendary play that took place when they crossed paths; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjUgDgcAIXY . There's entire compilations of Manu clutch shots, FFS.

The data suggesting that the "clutch gene" is interesting and certainly compelling, but it belies our own eyes - right? Just like you've mentioned... we've seen Manu (or Horry) time and time again rise up in clutch moments. We've seen Harden time and time again fail to rise up in those moments.

Certainly there is a valid argument that being clutch is a function of opportunity. You have to be in those moments to have a chance to step up in them. And we've certainly seen times when Manu (and Horry, notably against us in 2003) fails in big moments as well... so it's clear that there isn't some perfect "clutch gene".

However, even if the players we think are "clutch" are merely equaling their normal performance level (when adjusting for the increased difficulty of clutch time) - they are still stepping up to take those shots and deliver at some expectation. Contrast that to players who consistently perform WELL BELOW their normal level. There are definitely "unclutch" players! My concern is that Devin is our #2 or #1b... we need him to be big in big moments.

(This wasn't directed at you, Sugus, I just thought your post was good to expand upon)

[scott]

huh? He came up in the clutch just against the knicks?? and the jazz... how does ST define clutch... it's like a cowboys fan shitting on romo for throwing an interception when he had a shit O-line and had to make something happen in the 4th

Did he? What clutch plays specifically did he make in those games? He had good games, but did he make clutch plays? I provided a direct play-by-play in the last two minutes of 4Q and OT for every close game the Spurs have played this year on page 2.


Against Utah, Devin's only appearance in the last two minutes was a rebound and making 1 of 2 FT with 3.2 seconds to go to increase the lead from 6 to 7. Is that clutch?
Against NYK, Devin only appearances in the play-by-play were an assist with 1:29 to play in regulation, and a missed 3 with :24 to go in OT (and if you go back and watch that missed three, it was pretty poor decision making by Devin to even put up that shot, it's in fact the shot the made me decide to make this thread, because we've seen similar shots in at least 2 other cases just in the last month - against SAC and against BKY).


If you are arguing that you can't hold this all against Devin because the rest of the team sucks, okay... that's a decent approach... but it is somewhat undermined by the fact that other Spurs on the same team do make clutch plays more frequently.

[Sugus]

The data suggesting that the "clutch gene" is interesting and certainly compelling, but it belies our own eyes - right? Just like you've mentioned... we've seen Manu (or Horry) time and time again rise up in clutch moments. We've seen Harden time and time again fail to rise up in those moments.

Certainly there is a valid argument that being clutch is a function of opportunity. You have to be in those moments to have a chance to step up in them. And we've certainly seen times when Manu (and Horry, notably against us in 2003) fails in big moments as well... so it's clear that there isn't some perfect "clutch gene".

However, even if the players we think are "clutch" are merely equaling their normal performance level (when adjusting for the increased difficulty of clutch time) - they are still stepping up to take those shots and deliver at some expectation. Contrast that to players who consistently perform WELL BELOW their normal level. There are definitely "unclutch" players! My concern is that Devin is our #2 or #1b... we need him to be big in big moments.

(This wasn't directed at you, Sugus, I just thought your post was good to expand upon)

No problem, I love the discussion.

Indeed as you say, there is simply far too much "eye test" evidence backing up some players' naturally clutch-er performances and then the "regular mortal" players, who tend to struggle in big moments (which is presumably the default outcome).

At the end of the day, many performances that can statistically be considered "clutch" (close game in final minutes) are simply a product of the players being able to execute plays and shots at a normal level, in spite of the adverse conditions like fatigue, mental hurdle, pressure etc. This is the "Ray Allen 3" performances.

But then -- there's also these extraordinary performances, where a player simply trascends the game and rises a level above the rest in order to win it. The ones where saying "clutch performance" doesn't begin to cut it. These are the "Manu's shot in Athens '04" performances (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OVr1VfRJiY).

Therefore, I'd go further and assert that not only is clutchness real, it is measurable at both the eye-test and statistical level (though the heroics are subjective and can't really be quantified). There's levels to it. I'd love to see the numbers, and I'm sure there's a lot of privately-held stats and information on this for NBA teams to analyze nowadays.

[ambchang]

Th only correct answer to this question is that Devin sucks and he’s clearly the second best player on the spurs, which tells you how historically and the roster is outside of wemby. The only way to not piss off wemby and for him to demand a trade before the rookie deal is up is to trade for Trae young.

Also, PATFO sucks.

[rascal]

I strongly disagree with this. Vassal in his current year is already better than any season Hardaway has had and already has a more efficient game than him much less in his 4th year in the league. Even with no improvement he's already step above him, IMO. There's no way I'm completely writing off Vassal taking another step. Even modest improvement makes him substantially better.

He doesn't take it to the basket enough to be an all star. He doesn't have the ability to beat his man to the basket instead prefering to launch 3 point shots. That's his game because of his limited abilities.

[exstatic]

He doesn't take it to the basket enough to be an all star. He doesn't have the ability to beat his man to the basket instead prefering to launch 3 point shots. That's his game because of his limited abilities.

He takes 16 percent of his shots at the rim, and finishes at an ELITE 71%.

[Splits]

Also, PATFO sucks.

finally we agree on something

[Knoxxx]

I went through about 1 page of this and jumped to the end. The question is MOOT.

Vassell is not the main scorer he's like a 3rd or 4th leading scorer ideally. He's also our best shooter, so if we don't want him taking the "clutch shot" we need another shooter or two. Which is the furthest thing from a news flash this message board needs. Did we think AJ was a clutch shooter before that first championship?

(not to denigrate the premise of the OP but...)

[Pauleta14]

Shooting a clutch shot doesn't mean you're a clutch player.

The same way saying something idiotic doesn't necessarily mean you're an idiot.

[spurraider21]

He takes 16 percent of his shots at the rim, and finishes at an ELITE 71%.
16% is low for a ball handling guard tho. its not like he's just a catch and shoot guy. its not his finishing ability in question, its his consistency at getting to the rim

[scott]

16% is low for a ball handling guard tho. its not like he's just a catch and shoot guy. its not his finishing ability in question, its his consistency at getting to the rim

Devin had a really strong, aggressive drive towards the rim in the closing minutes of regulation against the Knicks that I recall commenting on in the game thread, because it is exactly what we need to see more of from him. IIRC, he earned some FTs with that drive. Need more of that.

[TD 21]

Th only correct answer to this question is that Devin sucks and he’s clearly the second best player on the spurs, which tells you how historically and the roster is outside of wemby. The only way to not piss off wemby and for him to demand a trade before the rookie deal is up is to trade for Trae young.

Also, PATFO sucks.

No, it's that PATFO are above reproach, know more about basketball than you ever will, 99% of the players in the league either suck or aren't good enough in some way to fit into the Spurs precious "culture" and if they're just patient, they'll either stumble into a perfect roster via the draft or will trade for Antetokounmpo or Doncic.

[Silverheart80]

You know a player is clutch when the opponents' strategy is to deny them the ball in game-winning situations. You know a player is clutch when that guy is on your team and you want the ball in his hands for the win.

Neither of these apply to Devin.

I rooted for the Spurs to draft him because I thought he'd a defensive stopper and have the offensive ability to be an All-Star. Wrong on both. Next year is Year Five for him. His high floor is about to touch his ceiling. If it hasn't already.

Plays the game for himself. Doesn't make his teammates better. Makes difficult jumpshots because he generally can't beat his man off-the-dribble, but that's not a recipe for *reliable* shotmaking. He'll never be clutch because he doesn't make smart decisions when games are not on the line, and even less so when they are. Current roster plays smarter ball running offense through Victor when Devin's not on the floor.

He's a Sixth Man of the Year on a championship team. If he's a starter, you're not winning a ring.

[JPB]

Shooting a clutch shot doesn't mean you're a clutch player.

The same way saying something idiotic doesn't necessarily mean you're an idiot.

Yeah, that post doesn't necessarily make you an idiot.

:D

[exstatic]

You know a player is clutch when the opponents' strategy is to deny them the ball in game-winning situations. You know a player is clutch when that guy is on your team and you want the ball in his hands for the win.

Neither of these apply to Devin.

I rooted for the Spurs to draft him because I thought he'd a defensive stopper and have the offensive ability to be an All-Star. Wrong on both. Next year is Year Five for him. His high floor is about to touch his ceiling. If it hasn't already.

Plays the game for himself. Doesn't make his teammates better. Makes difficult jumpshots because he generally can't beat his man off-the-dribble, but that's not a recipe for *reliable* shotmaking. He'll never be clutch because he doesn't make smart decisions when games are not on the line, and even less so when they are. Current roster plays smarter ball running offense through Victor when Devin's not on the floor.

He's a Sixth Man of the Year on a championship team. If he's a starter, you're not winning a ring.

Not sure where that came from. His consensus projection was 3 and D, with the D being team defense. That dovetailed nicely with his #11 draft slot. If you were really expecting an All Star, that would explain the disappointment. The reality is that he is far above his projection, probably a 90-95% development outcome.

[Pauleta14]

Yeah, that post doesn't necessarily make you an idiot.

:D

I genuinely thought of that come back as I wrote that post! :lol

Nice one

[Pauleta14]

Th only correct answer to this question is that Devin sucks and he’s clearly the second best player on the spurs, which tells you how historically and the roster is outside of wemby. The only way to not piss off wemby and for him to demand a trade before the rookie deal is up is to trade for Trae young.

Also, PATFO sucks.

Do you really mean this?

If yes just stop wasting ur energy thinking Wemby could do that. He’s not like us

Only scenario he’d ask to leave is if Pop retires. Even that isn’t given bc he seems to be loyal and a people person.

He’s closer to ManU than Timmy or even worse TP

[Mr. Body]

We got to trade Wembanyama RIGHT NOW because he sucks in the clutch.

:rollin