Would you rather have ONLY the #3 draft pick or BOTH the 7th & 8th draft pick?

[C-Dub]

Would you rather the Raptors 2024 draft pick not convey this season and recieve just 1 draft pick, or convey this season and end up with the 7th (Spurs) & 8th (Raptors) draft pick and if so, what player/s would you want the Spurs to select as their draft selections?

[spurraider21]

7th and 8th and its not a close decision

[TD 21]

Definitely 7th and 8th. Bird in the hand when it comes to the Craptors 1st, for reasons I've said ad nauseam.

Plus, in this draft, 7 and 8 might get them to 3.

[Dejounte]

Even if the most desired prospect was there at 3 I’d still want 7 and 8. This draft is hardcore garbage.

[spurraider21]

Definitely 7th and 8th. Bird in the hand when it comes to the Craptors 1st, for reasons I've said ad nauseam.

Plus, in this draft, 7 and 8 might get them to 3.
tbh im not sure i'd want the #1 overall pick instead of #8 and #9 this year :lol

and thats without factoring in the "bird in the hand" aspect with toronto's pick

only scenario where the #1 pick would be better is if the decision makers who are much smarter than me have an extremely high confidence level in Wemby-Sarr being able to coexist well

[Mugen]

Definitely 7th and 8th. If they wanted, they could package those picks and move into the top 5 pretty easily tbh.

[BacktoBasics]

I fully understand that we want that Rap pick to convey. But I think we’d end up with a better player if it lands in the 10-14 range next year.

[LeBowen]

I don't want any of these point guards.
Rather have just one wing instead of a wing and a guard.
Two wings would be the best outcome.

[baseline bum]

I fully understand that we want that Rap pick to convey. But I think we’d end up with a better player if it lands in the 10-14 range next year.

Problem is you don't want to be developing four rookies in 25, which could be likely if the Toronto pick doesn't convey this year since the Chicago 2025 is only top 10 protected.

[Leetonidas]

In this draft I think I'd rather have 7 and 8

[scott]

7 and 8. Then I'd package them along with the CHI pick to move up to 3.

(That last part is a joke. 7 and 8.)

[Uriel]

7 and 8 and I'll tell you why mathematically.

Let's say the #3 draft pick has a 70% chance of having a successful career and let's say the 7th and 8th picks each have a 50% chance of having a successful career. Given that, the probability that at least one of the 7th and 8th picks having a successful career is 1-(0.5*0.5)=0.75 or 75%.

Therefore, the probability that at least one of the 7th and 8th picks having a successful career is higher than just the 3rd pick having a successful career, so it's better to have 7 and 8 than just 3.

[spurraider21]

7 and 8 and I'll tell you why mathematically.

Let's say the #3 draft pick has a 70% chance of having a successful career and let's say the 7th and 8th picks each have a 50% chance of having a successful career. Given that, the probability that at least one of the 7th and 8th picks having a successful career is 1-(0.5*0.5)=0.75 or 75%.

Therefore, the probability that at least one of the 7th and 8th picks having a successful career is higher than just the 3rd pick having a successful career, so it's better to have 7 and 8 than just 3.
do you know that the 50% and 75% numbers are accurate? could throw off your numbers if thats your basis

[Uriel]

I found this graph (https://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm) on 82games.com that speaks to this question.

https://www.82games.com/Image16.gif

The "relative value" of pick #3, according to their data, is 87%, while for picks 7 and 8, it's 70% and 66% respectively. If we interpret "relative value" to mean "the probability that a player's career pans out" (that's not how the author defines it, but let's just go with that for the sake of simplicity), the probability of 7 and 8 resulting in a good player is still higher than just 3 alone.

[jjspur]

In this below average draft, definitely 7 & 8. We'll have picks next year in a much better draft class.

[SPURt]

7 and 8, purely because I’m sure the Spurs FO have throbbing boners for players that could be had at 20 and 21

[rascal]

I don't want any of these point guards.
Rather have just one wing instead of a wing and a guard.
Two wings would be the best outcome.

No get wings next year.

Next year the wings are better in the draft and it's loaded with wings in the current projected top 10. The wings this year aren't any better than the pgs.

[mo7888]

Would you rather the Raptors 2024 draft pick not convey this season and recieve just 1 draft pick, or convey this season and end up with the 7th (Spurs) & 8th (Raptors) draft pick and if so, what player/s would you want the Spurs to select as their draft selections?

7 & 8....without question

[rascal]

I fully understand that we want that Rap pick to convey. But I think we’d end up with a better player if it lands in the 10-14 range next year.

Are the players really better next year in the 10-14 range? Draft might be better at the top but is it really better in the middle?

[mudyez]

In most drafts it would be #3 but not this year.

[scott]

do you know that the 50% and 75% numbers are accurate? could throw off your numbers if thats your basis

My first guess is that the "success rate" of the 3rd pick would probably not be all that different from the success rate of the 7th or 8th pick, but I decide to do a cursory level of research:

This first analysis is a bit dated, but from the 1989-2008 drafts, the 3rd pick was actually the best at generating Star level players (but the definitions provided by the study), and had a 95% success rate at getting at least a "Solid" player, whereas 7 and 8 were only 70% and 50%, respectively. https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

This next study is a little more recent, looking at 1989-2019 drafts. Interesting, the 3rd pick was again the sweet spot, with a 57% chance of becoming an all-star, second only to the #1 pick at a 63% chance. #7 only had a 10% chance and #8 only a 3% chance. https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5

This study doesn't directly address the question but I found it interesting: https://tonyelhabr.github.io/nba-decision_analysis/what-research-says-about-nba-draft-pick-value.html

This study might be my favorite but doesn't provide data tables to pull from - but you can see by the visualizations (specifically the two with "Tier Percentage by Pick" that there is a significant drop off from pick #3 (which is again, better than pick #2 over time, which is very interesting). Just eyeballing it, it looks like Pick #3 ends up being a starting caliber player (by the PER definitions provided) about 65% of the time, whereas #7 is only around 35% of the time and #8 is only around 20% of the time. Things look a little better for picks 7 and 8 when you only look at their best 3 best seasons, but here is still a big drop off. https://www.bruinsportsanalytics.com/post/nba_first_round

So maybe we are looking at this wrong and that the #3 pick is the correct choice if you go by the math.

[Spurs Homer]

#3 definitely…

not confident that this current spurs front office will nail two good picks at 7/8

but if picking at #3 -even these dumbasses should be able to suss out who the top three best players are and can surely pick whichever of those 3 - is still there at #3

[CGD]

7th and 8th and its not a close decision

[Uriel]

My first guess is that the "success rate" of the 3rd pick would probably not be all that different from the success rate of the 7th or 8th pick, but I decide to do a cursory level of research:

This first analysis is a bit dated, but from the 1989-2008 drafts, the 3rd pick was actually the best at generating Star level players (but the definitions provided by the study), and had a 95% success rate at getting at least a "Solid" player, whereas 7 and 8 were only 70% and 50%, respectively. https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

This next study is a little more recent, looking at 1989-2019 drafts. Interesting, the 3rd pick was again the sweet spot, with a 57% chance of becoming an all-star, second only to the #1 pick at a 63% chance. #7 only had a 10% chance and #8 only a 3% chance. https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5

This study doesn't directly address the question but I found it interesting: https://tonyelhabr.github.io/nba-decision_analysis/what-research-says-about-nba-draft-pick-value.html

This study might be my favorite but doesn't provide data tables to pull from - but you can see by the visualizations (specifically the two with "Tier Percentage by Pick" that there is a significant drop off from pick #3 (which is again, better than pick #2 over time, which is very interesting). Just eyeballing it, it looks like Pick #3 ends up being a starting caliber player (by the PER definitions provided) about 65% of the time, whereas #7 is only around 35% of the time and #8 is only around 20% of the time. Things look a little better for picks 7 and 8 when you only look at their best 3 best seasons, but here is still a big drop off. https://www.bruinsportsanalytics.com/post/nba_first_round

So maybe we are looking at this wrong and that the #3 pick is the correct choice if you go by the math.
If those numbers are correct, then you’re right. The math is telling us that the #3 pick is indeed the correct answer.

[daslicer]

7th and 8th because this draft is a draft where the number 1 pick is as good as any pick in the top 10 when it comes to talent. Spurs have 2 shots at getting a good prospect with 7th and 8th. No guaranteed they will nail it with one of those 2 picks, but I liked the odds of getting 2 chances of possibly picking up a good player.

[TekXX]

#3 Pick, let's hope the draft is better next year and the raps pick conveys.

[JPB]

Yeah #3. Better chances no matter what at a good/great player. 2 good players don't equal one great player, even if the difference is thin.and spurs need room for vet presence. Two more rookies to develop and give time to,, that's another mess of a team.next year.

[Raven]

#3 because we have too many assets to develop

[spursparker9]

Given that is a weak draft, better to get 7th and 8th

[Seventyniner]

#3 Pick, let's hope the draft is better next year and the raps pick conveys.

Finally, someone who took into account that it isn't #3 vs #7 + #8 this year, it's #3 + the future TOR pick vs #7 + #8 this year.

Sure, the TOR pick can never be higher than #7, and might be in the teens if the Raptors finally decide not to tank, but it still needs to be taken into account. The difference between #3 and #7 this year can easily outweigh the difference between #8 this year and whatever the TOR pick becomes.

[poopbox]

Number 3 but only if it gets me Sarr. This team would hit another gear with another real offensive big who is an offensive threat next to Wemby.

7 and 8 probably gets us another Devin and another Sochan. 1 is enough. You can make the case that 1 is to many.

[LeBowen]

We already have two guaranteed picks in 2025.
Chicago possibly being the third, I guess they'll be in similar situation to Raptors this year with that top10 protected pick.
And who knows, maybe even Charlotte makes a miracle play-in run, although that's not likely to happen.

I'd rather have two rookies while we're still deciding which direction to take than to have four picks next year.
Yeah, we can trade up, but if PATFO really wants someone, they can trade up with future picks.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

7 and 8, purely because I’m sure the Spurs FO have throbbing boners for players that could be had at 20 and 21

:lol

Yeah, I’m not sold that we’ll do much with 3 or 7&8. We haven’t hit a home run with any draft pick that isn’t teed up perfectly obvious like Wemby.

[DPG21920]

7 and 8. Then I'd package them along with the CHI pick to move up to 3.

(That last part is a joke. 7 and 8.)

:lol

[fafo]

#3. Spurs get to use Toronto’s pick in stronger drafts either next year or the following. They can also decide to move that pick later in a trade since teams tend to be more attracted to the possibilities of a pick than the player drafted with that pick. Plus, they have an increased likelihood of getting their preferred guy at #3.

[spurraider21]

for the people who are saying the #3 pick im curious who they want with that #3 pick

[Mr. Body]

In this draft, 7 or 8 is individually not too different from the 3. There's only one player I'd regret missing on and I don't think the Spurs want him anyway.

Meanwhile, the Spurs probably don't want more than 2 rookies a draft class so they'd have to move TOR next year if they get it anyway.

[fafo]

for the people who are saying the #3 pick im curious who they want with that #3 pick
For me, it's less about valuing a particular player that highly and it's more about using the asset of an extra pick at a later time. I'd rather see if it can be packaged in a trade either this summer or next. If the Spurs do have to use it for themselves, I rather it be next year or the year after with better draft classes.

[John B]

I’ll be greedy. 1 and 7.

[Rosewood]

I’ll be greedy. 1 and 7.
Who would you get with 1?

[jesterbobman]

I'd rather have the 3 this year and the Toronto pick next year than 7 and 8. I think that's clear, even with uncertainty of the Raptors pick conveying.

If I could trade the #3 this year for 7 and 8, I probably do that (though, there's no way for something like that to happen).

[spurraider21]

in a draft where the talent curve is this flat, i dont think you would get the 7th and 8th pick in exchange for the 3rd pick

[intlspurshk]

Can’t Spurs trade 7 or 8 pick with KJ to 2025 unprotected first pick? Some non-playoff teams will be wagered to win next year

[Big Empty]

7 & 8 so we can trade them for Tre Young

[mo7888]

7 & 8 so we can trade them for Tre Young

I'd rather trade them for Murray....or one of them for Derrick White...

[JR3]

#3 and the Toronto pick next year is what I’d prefer over 7&8.

[sfernald]

#3 and the Toronto pick next year is what I’d prefer over 7&8.

The reality is it’s going to #7 and Toronto pick or 7&8. Of course anyone would want the earlier projected pick if you count the Toronto pick. It defeats the point of the hypothetical.

Be warned though, if the Toronto pick doesn’t land this year there’s an increased chance it doesn’t land at all. I believe after two more years it goes away without even a second to
show for it.

[TimmehC]

7 & 8. This draft is almost exclusively role players, so you might as well try to grab a couple of them before making bigger swings in a better draft next year. Also, if that Raps pick doesn't convey this year, there's a decent chance of the Spurs having 4 first rounders next year, so they'd probably be forced to sell at least 1 of those from a poor bargaining position(roster crunch).

[Ignazzz]

#1 2024 & #7 2026 TOR Please