8 Questions About the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery and the Spurs

[timvp]

https://www.spurstalk.com/questions-spurs-2024-nba-draft-lottery/

[jesterbobman]

1. Quite bad, though that's a mix of it seems weaker in overall talent (there'll always be variation year to year) AND it's particularly uncertain at the top.
2. Yes, #1 is relatively cheap, can either trade down or just have first overall pick, money difference isn't that big.
3. Future contract, being overly attracted to your own guys. Being overly focused on f#@*ing up and dealing with the downside is poor approach, you should focus on adapting on what you see and be willing to admit a mistake, even if it followed good process.
4 (and 5). Always debate. I think Toronto should be (is?) thinking that Barnes is a good enough player to build around, and won't want to waste his first deal rebuilding with no promise. A Quickly / RJ / Scottie / ? / Poeltl wit Dick, Olynyk, etc should be decent though not amazing. Gets into a debate of 7 this year vs 90% having 10 next year / 9% at #10 in 2026. Small difference at 7, think you can go either way on risk preference.
6. Trade down and get more assets / Sarr / depends on the combination with the Toronto pick. You've got to think of building to a title contender eventually, and acknowledge that you're not at the point to pick for a particular need as there are so many (and, viewed with retrospect, as we're unlikely to be contending next year) BPA will be the best option. I think that's Sarr, but I don't think it's so clear where you'd take him no matter what, like Wemby was last year.
7. Mostly the same people with the Toronto pick. Maybe avoid combos like Dilly / Topic, but mostly just BPA.
8. A GOAT level player is worth about 20 wins a year, a fringe all star is probably worth about 10, with a slow progress down until 5th starters are worth 5 or so wins a year. Last year was huge (and we got lucky), this year we're looking at a tiny difference. Worst outcome is probably more Atlanta moves up (as it limits the upside of the unprotected swaps if they pick well) rather than wherever the Spurs end up. I'd love 1 and 7, but most things are fine.

[Mugen]

The pick should convey now. Toronto could just as easily tank for the '25 draft if it doesn't convey this year. That's what I'd do if I were them tbh.

I'm also concerned about having too many picks in next year's draft as silly as that sounds. But I do not trust Wright at all with that many picks (look at the last time he had 3 first rounders). He'd definitely waste a few of them instead of trading them for future 1st rounders like Presti would do tbh.

[Mr. Body]

In a questionable draft with no top 1-4 players, you should definitely NOT want a pick in that range. You're going to have excruciating decisions down the line with ballooning contracts. Either expect to max that player out or expect to not have them their full career.

If you combined this year's draft with 2023, Rob Dillingham probably supplants Anthony Black as the number 6 pick with 1-5 from last year remaining where they are. The ridiculous overvalue of Sarr goes away and he drops to around where Derek Lively went. The rest would be a crapshoot.

Getting the TOR pick is optimal. The desire to tank again will be high for many teams next year and we already have two picks anyway. Even if we go 7, 8 or so, we have two lottery grade players to try out.

[Mr. Body]

The pick should convey now. Toronto could just as easily tank for the '25 draft if it doesn't convey this year. That's what I'd do if I were them tbh.

I'm also concerned about having too many picks in next year's draft as silly as that sounds. But I do not trust Wright at all with that many picks (look at the last time he had 3 first rounders). He'd definitely waste a few of them instead of trading them for future 1st rounders like Presti would do tbh.

Can you explain to me who the Spurs should have picked in 2022 with those late first rounders instead? The only possible miss was Kessler, but he's already starting to be unplayable.

Look through the list and tell me who they should have very clearly drafted that night: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NBA_draft

[Mugen]

Can you explain to me who the Spurs should have picked in 2022 with those late first rounders instead? The only possible miss was Kessler, but he's already starting to be unplayable.

Look through the list and tell me who they should have very clearly drafted that night: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NBA_draft

Looking at the next 9 picks after Wesley and I'd immediately want Jovic, Watson, Nembhard and Jaylin Williams over him tbh. I dont even care about missing on J Dub and Kessler with the other picks tbh.

[LeBowen]

Looking at the next 9 picks after Wesley and I'd immediately want Jovic, Watson, Nembhard and Jaylin Williams over him tbh. I dont even care about missing on J Dub and Kessler with the other picks tbh.

It's hillarious how Spurs went from picking random Euros noone knew or cared about to missing Euro prospects in favor of fundamentally flawed charity cases.

[TD 21]

I've long been resigned to not moving up or having the Craptors pick convey (and if/when it doesn't, then it should be included in any significant trade that might occur between now and the '25 draft).

I just hope they don't throw the natural pick in the garbage on some raw, (perceived) choir boy wing, who can't shoot.


I'm also concerned about having too many picks in next year's draft as silly as that sounds. But I do not trust Wright at all with that many picks (look at the last time he had 3 first rounders). He'd definitely waste a few of them instead of trading them for future 1st rounders like Presti would do tbh.

For The Bigots And The Uninitiated (spurstalk.com) (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=303507)

[scott]

With the draft being so weak at the top, should the Spurs actually hope for the first pick?

The Spurs have about a 10% chance of landing the first pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Even though the top of the draft is weak, San Antonio would still be very happy to get the top pick.
First of all, the first pick is a really good trade asset. Secondly, the rookie scale ensures that the contract will be reasonable. Most importantly, landing the first pick would guarantee the Spurs the chance of drafting the top player on their board. Given San Antonio’s impressive history in the draft spanning decades, that’d be an enviable position.Not buying into this whatsoever. The Spurs' recent history isn't nearly as impressive (it's shining moment is making the obvious choice of picking Victor). In the Wright era (regardless of who is actually making the picks), the Spurs have been quite lackluster, and until proven otherwise that is the only history I'm basing things on. Whatever scouting department hit on Tony, Manu, Nephew, DJM, Derrick, etc. isn't the same scouting department that is in place now, so the previous history is irrelevant.

[Knoxxx]

The pick should convey now. Toronto could just as easily tank for the '25 draft if it doesn't convey this year. That's what I'd do if I were them tbh.

I'm also concerned about having too many picks in next year's draft as silly as that sounds. But I do not trust Wright at all with that many picks (look at the last time he had 3 first rounders). He'd definitely waste a few of them instead of trading them for future 1st rounders like Presti would do tbh.

Your second paragraph is arguably absurd so I will refrain from commenting on that.

As far as your first point, yes I educated the entire board on that early on its the old saying “a bird in hand…”

Of course it’s too difficult to prove I educated the board on that, and some of course refuse to be educated at any cost. However, it’s patently obvious TOR could completely implode and their pick NEVER convey. Also, the fact that the current draft is “weak” makes having two top 10 picks more valuable. I know, hard to wrap your brain around but think about it.

Caveat: I had two glasses of champagne before this post, HAPPY MOTHERS DAY!!! (in case your thought I was actually just a sock account for MultiTroll or something with my absurdly brash takes, LOL)

[Knoxxx]

Not buying into this whatsoever. The Spurs' recent history isn't nearly as impressive (it's shining moment is making the obvious choice of picking Victor). In the Wright era (regardless of who is actually making the picks), the Spurs have been quite lackluster, and until proven otherwise that is the only history I'm basing things on. Whatever scouting department hit on Tony, Manu, Nephew, DJM, Derrick, etc. isn't the same scouting department that is in place now, so the previous history is irrelevant.

Yes except you fail to account for dumb ass luck. We got lucky then not lucky then lucky again. It happens.

[scott]

Yes except you fail to account for dumb ass luck. We got lucky then not lucky then lucky again. It happens.

Drafting Primo over Sengun (as an example) is not “bad luck” - it’s bad drafting.

[DPG21920]

Great day for Spurs overall. A very nice win for Wright locking in pick 8 for Jakob.

Spurs should be able to move around now in the draft if they need too, but it’s setting up for a Dillingham + one of Reed/Cody/Castle/Holland draft IF Dillingham can survive the first 3 picks

[baseline bum]

Great day for Spurs overall. A very nice win for Wright locking in pick 8 for Jakob.

Spurs should be able to move around now in the draft if they need too, but it’s setting up for a Dillingham + one of Reed/Cody/Castle/Holland draft IF Dillingham can survive the first 3 picks

Ugh if Washington takes Dilly that really fucks us since then Houston would surely take Risacher. While if Washington takes Risacher I'm thinking Houston takes Sheppard. Can't see any way Houston takes Dillingham when they have Amen at PG and Sheppard would probably be way better off the ball.

[Russ]

Ugh if Washington takes Dilly that really fucks us since then Houston would surely take Risacher. While if Washington takes Risacher I'm thinking Houston takes Sheppard. Can't see any way Houston takes Dillingham when they have Amen at PG.

What if Topic is the real target . . .

[DPG21920]

Ugh if Washington takes Dilly that really fucks us since then Houston would surely take Risacher. While if Washington takes Risacher I'm thinking Houston takes Sheppard. Can't see any way Houston takes Dillingham when they have Amen at PG.

Ya - if Dillingham is the target, then looks like you have to survive WAS. No way ATL does that if they have Trae and/or DJ still. WAS could easily do it as they will just take BPA and need guards too.

HOU like you said doesnt seem likely but I wouldn’t be surprised either since they draft for talent. But Reed makes more sense for them or Risacher. WAS will be key and I doubt WAS would trade too. Was hoping WAS stayed behind SA…

[LeBowen]

Ugh if Washington takes Dilly that really fucks us since then Houston would surely take Risacher. While if Washington takes Risacher I'm thinking Houston takes Sheppard.

Am I missing something with the Rockets?
They've got Jabari, Amen, Eason and Whitmore on the wings, do they really need another one?
To me it looks like a perfect scenario to pick a point guard, with FVV being a short-term solution.

[baseline bum]

What if Topic is the real target . . .

Please don't make me want to drink at 3PM on a Sunday

[Russ]

Please don't make me want to drink at 3PM on a Sunday

You'll feel better in the long run . . .

[Mugen]

Id say theres close to 0% chance Dillingham goes to Washington at #2.

[baseline bum]

Am I missing something with the Rockets?
They've got Jabari, Amen, Eason and Whitmore on the wings, do they really need another one?
To me it looks like a perfect scenario to pick a point guard, with FVV being a short-term solution.

Amen's going to be their PG and Sheppard would be way better off the ball than Dillingham IMO. Guessing they'd play Risacher at both the 3 and 4.

[DPG21920]

Am I missing something with the Rockets?
They've got Jabari, Amen, Eason and Whitmore on the wings, do they really need another one?
To me it looks like a perfect scenario to pick a point guard, with FVV being a short-term solution.

Jalen Green is there and I doubt they would want Dillingham/Green backcourt but you never know. They draft for BPA always it seems so if that’s Dillingham they will take him.

Plus having Amen likely being the PG too.

[LeBowen]

Amen's going to be their PG and Sheppard would be way better off the ball than Dillingham IMO. Guessing they'd play Risacher at both the 3 and 4.

Sheppard makes sense for them and Detroit.
I'm really high on Whitmore and Jabari is really good, I don't think they'd go for Risacher unless they think he's got all-star potential.

[DPG21920]

Id say theres close to 0% chance Dillingham goes to Washington at #2.

Hoping it goes Sarr to ATL, Risacher to WAS..

[baseline bum]

You'll feel better in the long run . . .

Why are you so high on Topic? He's a good passer with size but he's not getting to the rim in the NBA without either a midrange game or a three point shot, neither of which he has. And despite his size he's still not considered a good defender at all. Seems a very high risk player with a playing in China level floor.

[james evans]

doesn't matter. Popovich and Wright are gonna find some way to fuck up both picks and next season. And when we don't get the first pick in 2025, then what?

[DPG21920]

Wonder if ATL can extract some much needed capital from WAS for Sarr?

ATL trades back to 2, takes Risacher, and gets an extra first from WAS?

[TD 21]

I don't get some of these takes . . .

With a new POBO coming in, I doubt the Pistons will be married to anyone but Cunningham, a big wing primary initiator who could easily play next to Dillingham or Sheppard.

So could (Amen) Thompson, another big wing initiator (in time). If the Rockets select Clingan, it'll indicate they're not married to Sengun long term. They're also candidates to trade the pick for an established player.

I doubt the Wizards, so early in their re-build, will swing for anything less than a puncher's chance at an (offensive) star. They might select Risacher anyway, but probably to trade back for Dillingham or Topic +.

[DPG21920]

I would also be fine with SA trading these picks for a player if theres one truly worth it. Everything needs to be on the table.

[benefactor]

I would also be fine with SA trading these picks for a player if theres one truly worth it. Everything needs to be on the table.
This is my thinking as well, which is why I said there's no telling what this roster is going to look like. I do think they will go ahead and make both pics though as I can't really see a home run trade for both of them at the moment.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

I think there’s a very good chance Houston don’t pick at 3 but decide to trade it. Even if they do keep the pick I see a very decent chance Risacher is there at 4 for the Spurs if he’s their target. His people likely would want to get him there too.

[scott]

I'm starting to think more and more that this sets Houston up well for a big move this offseason. They have a glut of young talent and the #3 pick.

Some possibilities:


Go back to BKY to talk about Bridges? He should be cheaper than the last time they asked, and the Nets might be kicking themselves to see their pick at #3
Khris Middleton? Chinook has brought up some interesting Middleton scenarios for the Spurs... the might apply here as well. (Note: I'm not suggesting they would trade #3 for Middleton straight up, just that there might be some creative framework here)
Big S&T with the Clippers for PG13?!?
Ainge might be very interested in talking about a deal for #3 and some of the young guns on Houston's roster for Lauri...

[DPG21920]

This is my thinking as well, which is why I said there's no telling what this roster is going to look like. I do think they will go ahead and make both pics though as I can't really see a home run trade for both of them at the moment.

Agree - drafting is 90% the way to go it appears I just have to put disclaimers out for future reference :lol

[DPG21920]

I think there’s a very good chance Houston don’t pick at 3 but decide to trade it. Even if they do keep the pick I see a very decent chance Risacher is there at 4 for the Spurs if he’s their target. His people likely would want to get him there too.

A Risacher/Dillingham draft maybe? SA gets Risacher at 4, then trades CHA 8 + their pick back to move to 6 to take Dillingham?

[DPG21920]

Keldon + pick 8 for pick 3 so SA can take Risacher/Dillingham 3 and 4?

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

we staaaaacked

[skin27]

Keldon + pick 8 for pick 3 so SA can take Risacher/Dillingham 3 and 4?

Pick 2 instead of 3

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

A Risacher/Dillingham draft maybe? SA gets Risacher at 4, then trades CHA 8 + their pick back to move to 6 to take Dillingham?

I’m not convinced the Spurs would want two more rookies on the roster but if they do your scenario would be great. Getting two players that can shoot out of this putrid draft.

[exstatic]

I honestly wouldn’t trade any meaningful capital to move up in this draft if I’m the GM of any team. There just aren’t any real standouts. I half think Sarr is being mocked as #1, because it’s traditional to mock a big there, mock draft inertia from10 years ago.

[DPG21920]

I’m not convinced the Spurs would want two more rookies on the roster but if they do your scenario would be great. Getting two players that can shoot out of this putrid draft.

For sure - think the point is as I think through this is SA should be able to move around to get their guys if they feel the need.

[scott]

Don't see a need to trade up in this draft, unless of course the Spurs feel that someone is a head and shoulders better prospect they have to have (a Kawhi-like situation). Spurs don't typically move up, and I don't want to burn assets to do so in this draft class.

[DPG21920]

Don't see a need to trade up in this draft, unless of course the Spurs feel that someone is a head and shoulders better prospect they have to have (a Kawhi-like situation). Spurs don't typically move up, and I don't want to burn assets to do so in this draft class.

I agree - was more about should be able to do so more easily than usual IF they feel need. Highly doubt they do. Trading back may be the play if you can find a dance partner.

[LeBowen]

Time to tinker about potential offseason scenarios since we know the draft order.
Two rookies will make around $12.8M combined, not guaranteeing Graham would leave us at around $20M in cap space.

rookie/Tre/Wesley
Devin/Branham/?
rookie/Keldon/Champagnie
?/Jeremy/Sidy
Wemby/Collins/Bassey

I think it's a given we'll get a point guard and a wing, I put them in there as starters for the sake of it, they could also start off the bench or Jeremy could start at SF, you get the point.

My priority would be to get rid of Collins and even Keldon since teams still see him as a positive asset.
But I don't think PATFO would move Keldon at all costs since he's the vocal leader of the team.

It's all lining up for a massive offseason in 2025 that will turn the Spurs into a playoff team, with the next season just being natural growth.
I'm fine with that, but two glaring issues must be addressed.

We need a starting 3-D forward and we need a backup big that will prevent layup lane from happening whenever Wemby sits.
Pat Williams and Oubre look like the only decent FA forwards, I'd pay attention to situation in NOLA and Brooklyn. Markkanen would be ideal, but he's too expensive.
When it comes to bigs, I honestly have no clue. Claxton and Hartenstein will surely want to keep starting and the likes of Drummond/Plumlee are washed up.
But we got to get rid of Collins.

Might consider bringing Mamu back, but it's too early to give up on Sidy.
Give another year to Wesley and Branham and let them go next year if they don't improve.

With both picks being successful, good starting forward addition and a backup rim protector, I think Spurs could get into play-in battle next season.

[scott]

Time to tinker about potential offseason scenarios since we know the draft order.
Two rookies will make around $12.8M combined, not guaranteeing Graham would leave us at around $20M in cap space.

rookie/Tre/Wesley
Devin/Branham/?
rookie/Keldon/Champagnie
?/Jeremy/Sidy
Wemby/Collins/Bassey

I think it's a given we'll get a point guard and a wing, I put them in there as starters for the sake of it, they could also start off the bench or Jeremy could start at SF, you get the point.

My priority would be to get rid of Collins and even Keldon since teams still see him as a positive asset.
But I don't think PATFO would move Keldon at all costs since he's the vocal leader of the team.

It's all lining up for a massive offseason in 2025 that will turn the Spurs into a playoff team, with the next season just being natural growth.
I'm fine with that, but two glaring issues must be addressed.

We need a starting 3-D forward and we need a backup big that will prevent layup lane from happening whenever Wemby sits.
Pat Williams and Oubre look like the only decent FA forwards, I'd pay attention to situation in NOLA and Brooklyn. Markkanen would be ideal, but he's too expensive.
When it comes to bigs, I honestly have no clue. Claxton and Hartenstein will surely want to keep starting and the likes of Drummond/Plumlee are washed up.
But we got to get rid of Collins.

Might consider bringing Mamu back, but it's too early to give up on Sidy.
Give another year to Wesley and Branham and let them go next year if they don't improve.

With both picks being successful, good starting forward addition and a backup rim protector, I think Spurs could get into play-in battle next season.

I'm definitely going to be cranking out some more scenarios in the Ideal Off-Season thread now that we know the picks :lol

But very quickly, in your scenario above, assuming we draft PG and SF. We could still have money to go after Malik Monk for that backup SG/6th man role. Jeremy would still start at PF, bring back Cedi at the vet minimum (if he'll take it) to play backup PF.

[Russ]

Why are you so high on Topic? He's a good passer with size but he's not getting to the rim in the NBA without either a midrange game or a three point shot, neither of which he has. And despite his size he's still not considered a good defender at all. Seems a very high risk player with a playing in China level floor.

Topic will get to the rim in any league. And since coming back from his injury (or whatever) he's 4-5 from three.

They're all high risk.

Topic's floor isn't China, it's (at the very, very worst) Beno.

His ceiling is high.

[DPG21920]

I’m not convinced the Spurs would want two more rookies on the roster but if they do your scenario would be great. Getting two players that can shoot out of this putrid draft.

Also, why do you think SA may not want 2 rookies? Interest to hear your thoughts there as to me it seems likely they would want two rookies since they are still building and there’s plenty of roster spots open to fight for with regards to talent.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Also, why do you think SA may not want 2 rookies? Interest to hear your thoughts there as to me it seems likely they would want two rookies since they are still building and there’s plenty of roster spots open to fight for with regards to talent.

Just think they’ll be more open to wheeling and dealing than normally and with the draft being so meh I could see them being content with a Risacher and a trade for a more win-now player than what a Dillingham or Matas or Holland would be. Like you said, they have the ammo to make various moves, which should make things exciting this offseason.

[DPG21920]

Just think they’ll be more open to wheeling and dealing than normally and with the draft being so meh I could see them being content with a Risacher and a trade for a more win-now player than what a Dillingham or Matas or Holland would be. Like you said, they have the ammo to make various moves, which should make things exciting this offseason.

Gotcha - so it’s more of a weak draft thing than a young player thing in your mind. I just see so many guys who can be replaced or at least should have to really grow and leap and fight for spots so there’s plenty of room.

I would love if there was a legit good player that’s young-ish that SA could trade for using pick 8 + other future picks/players. Just hard to see too many guys there that would be available at the moment

[baseline bum]

Topic will get to the rim in any league. And since coming back from his injury (or whatever) he's 4-5 from three.

They're all high risk.

Topic's floor isn't China, it's (at the very, very worst) Beno.

His ceiling is high.

That's a pretty big statement saying his floor is borderline starter like Udrih was. I agree his ceiling is pretty high if he can ever develop a jumpshot which would make me probably take a risk on him at #8 if the Spurs draft say Risacher, Holland, Buzelis, or Williams at #4 and Dillingham and Sheppard are off the board. Can't say I see him being successful at the rim if his defender can just back off and dare him to miss in the midrange or at the three point line though.

[RC_Drunkford]

Also, why do you think SA may not want 2 rookies? Interest to hear your thoughts there as to me it seems likely they would want two rookies since they are still building and there’s plenty of roster spots open to fight for with regards to talent.

according to exstatic the franchise doesn't have the resources to develop that many young players :lmao

[Russ]

That's a pretty big statement saying his floor is borderline starter like Udrih was. I agree his ceiling is pretty high if he can ever develop a jumpshot which would make me probably take a risk on him at #8 if the Spurs draft say Risacher, Holland, Buzelis, or Williams at #4 and Dillingham and Sheppard are off the board. Can't say I see him being successful at the rim if his defender can just back off and dare him to miss in the midrange or at the three point line though.

Not to belabor it, but Topic hits .878% from the line. That's mid-range and that FT% puts him in the top 10 in the NBA (better than Dillingham's .796%).

[John B]

It’s up to Spurs scouts to do their diligence on who has the “it” factor among these kids. Josh, Samanich, Joe Dirt (forgot his name) all performed really well at the Combine but didn’t have “it”

[Chinook]

These are both still the highest picks the Spurs have had besides Wemby in the Pop era. They're both really important, and my guess is that the Spurs like this draft more than the consensus does

[DPG21920]

These are both still the highest picks the Spurs have had besides Wemby in the Pop era. They're both really important, and my guess is that the Spurs like this draft more than the consensus does

Thats a part of why I wanted it to convey this year. It’s a draft where you may get really solid value if you like some guys beyond consensus and have ability to move around up/back too.

[LaMarcus Bryant]

I'm with Scott this FO has zero credibility with picks outside of Wemby. Compounding the issue is the weak ass draft class itself

[jeebus]

according to exstatic (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=20) the franchise doesn't have the resources to develop that many young players :lmao

He was a huge jeff errors fan. That's all you need to know about his takes.

[benefactor]

He was a huge jeff errors fan. That's all you need to know about his takes.
You can take him, Urinal and Mr. Butt Buddy and blend them together in a blender and make the worst bad takes shake you've ever tasted

[Das Texan]

Not buying into this whatsoever. The Spurs' recent history isn't nearly as impressive (it's shining moment is making the obvious choice of picking Victor). In the Wright era (regardless of who is actually making the picks), the Spurs have been quite lackluster, and until proven otherwise that is the only history I'm basing things on. Whatever scouting department hit on Tony, Manu, Nephew, DJM, Derrick, etc. isn't the same scouting department that is in place now, so the previous history is irrelevant.

More RC and less Wright input in the draft room/ scouting process would be great for this franchise.