Draft Game Theory: Lotto Team Needs and Strategies

[scott]

I wanted to start this thread as a discussion space for the OTHER teams in the lottery since there is a lot of chatter about what they might do in other threads, and we have a vested interest in their movements. The goal here is to narrow in on what we think other teams might do, not really focus on the Spurs. Someone did some perusing around the internet to see what other team's fans were saying, and that context is helpful too if you want to add it.

Here is my initial take on where other teams are. Just going to focus on the Top 10 for now, but may add later. I'll also edit this original post as folks fill in details. I'm hoping to have a one-stop resource for Other Team's needs and strategies to help us build out our takes for what the Spurs should do.

Atlanta

Despite whatever rooting interest we have in the Hawks going forward and the Trae/DJM drama, I've got to say that the Hawks winning the lottery is one of the more exciting things that could have happened because it's just so out of the blue and it really shakes things up. So, kudos to the NBA writers for this plot twist.
It's almost a forgone conclusion they'll take Sarr because their C depth is a rapidly aging Capela and a 6'8" Onyeka Okongwu. Sarr seems to make a ton of sense. Could they fall in love with Clingan instead?
With that said, a SF like Risacher or Buzelis would make a lot of sense as well. I think either guy would slot nicely next to Jalen Johnson and give them a promising front court with length.
What does Atlanta do about Trae and DJM? Do they view this #1 pick as a true rebuilding opportunity or do they try to move one of these guys for a useful player as opposed to picks? Could that impact their draft strategy?
They have plenty of guard options (too many perhaps) so it seems it really comes down to wing and C
5/20 Update: Hawks brass were in attendance to watch one of Risacher's best performances of the year. It seems highly likely they will choose between Sarr and Risacher.


Washington

They "need everything" in the way the Spurs (outside of Wemby) kind of do. No one is really good enough to be irreplaceable on this team
With that said, they have plent of wings: Deni, Kispert, Bilal, Kuzma. So that doesn't appear an option unless they want to move some other guys.
Center and PG are obvious choices... Do they view Clingan as good enough to take at 2? With Topic now hurt again, I really think Dilly is in play here whereas I thought he could slide all the way down to 8 before.
5/20 Update: There is a possibility Sarr falls to them, but there are some question marks as to whether C would be their preferred direction. Would they view Risacher or Buzelis as a 4 and open room for them (especially if they move Kuzma)? Seems like Dilly and Topic are the primary targets... but maybe a dark horse landing spot for Sheppard?


Houston

If it weren't for the fact that we all hate the Rockets, I would find this another fun wrinkle to this draft. I'm fascinated by them at 3 because they don't have any obvious holes.
I assume they view their SL as FVV (for now), Green, Brooks, Jabari, Sengun. Amen could slot in for FVV or Brooks.
Whitmore and Eason are nice SF/PF guys on their bench... would they dare disrupt things by going Risacher or Matas?
Fans want Reed Sheppard, that seems like a fit if Amen moves into the SL for Brooks as a point forward
I feel like they are in a really great spot to consolidate some young players and this pick and go make a big move though. Seems up Ainge's alley for Lauri (ugh, I would hate this) or maybe they go back to Bridges or even look at a Khris Middleton.
5/20 Update: Feels like Dillingham is picking up some momentum in the rumor mill/think tanks. I have a hard time seeing them take Sarr (if available) or Clingan. A Top 3 pick for a backup C seems rich, and I don't see Sarr or Sengun as PFs.


Detroit

Poor bastards.
Seems like big wing is the obvious choice here, and if Risacher, Matas or maybe even Cody Williams is there they have to take them. The have plenty of young, talented guards, and Ausar at SF and Isaiah Stewart at PF. Steward isn't good enough to worry about displacing.
Duren looks solid, but is this maybe a sneaky Clingan destination?
Really tough spot for Detroit to land in if someone grabs Risacher and the Spurs love Matas. I don't see Holland as fit. Salaun here in maybe a surprise jump?
Really feel like this is worst case scenario for Detroit, who needs to pray that one of Risacher or Matas is left
5/20 update: Connections to Matas as surfacing.


Charlotte

This team is so irrelevant I forgot about them
PG and SF are locked up, but besides that who knows. I feel like they'll resign Bridges, as I don't know that there will be any other homes for him
Is Mark Williams THE GUY? Maybe Clingan here?
Castle makes a ton of sense, I assume they'll do that but we just found out today that Castle is a lot smaller than expected. Certainly not Knecht, right?
5/20 Update: Castle saying he will refuse to workout for teams with a starting PG in place and that he views himself as a PG. This was the popular landing spot for him... I think Clingan and Sheppard make sense as potential backup options. Buzelis as a PF here maybe? I do think they'll resign Bridges.


Portland

rascal promised me they'd get the #1 pick and draft Sarr. Oh well.
Guard looks set, but do they move Simons? Grant and Ayton on paper is a decent front court, but could this maybe be another Clingan spot? If not here, maybe Missi or Flip with their #14 pick?
This is maybe the biggest mystery to me. I don't appear to have obvious holes, but they also suck ass. Hard to evaluate
5/20 Update: ​Seems like the floor for Holland


Memphis

I think this is Clingan's floor and god I hope someone else gets him first, because he's such a great fit here
Other than that, they have the luxury of just going BPA and setting up for next year. Knecht here maybe?


Utah

Need to caveat that they have the assets to move up anywhere they want, and that is dangerous



Another BPA kind of situation? Another team where it is hard to pinpoint a glaring hole but it's not like they are good, so who knows?

[Dejounte]

There was a report a few weeks ago that said an anonymous Assistant GM would draft Topic if they had the #1 pick. I looked up some teams who have assistant GM’s and noticed that Washington has one. Washington was so going to draft Topic with their #2, and tbh I feel there’s a chance they still will if they were so in love with him.

[mo7888]

I wanted to start this thread as a discussion space for the OTHER teams in the lottery since there is a lot of chatter about what they might do in other threads, and we have a vested interest in their movements. The goal here is to narrow in on what we think other teams might do, not really focus on the Spurs. Someone did some perusing around the internet to see what other team's fans were saying, and that context is helpful too if you want to add it.

Here is my initial take on where other teams are. Just going to focus on the Top 10 for now, but may add later. I'll also edit this original post as folks fill in details. I'm hoping to have a one-stop resource for Other Team's needs and strategies to help us build out our takes for what the Spurs should do.

Atlanta

Despite whatever rooting interest we have in the Hawks going forward and the Trae/DJM drama, I've got to say that the Hawks winning the lottery is one of the more exciting things that could have happened because it's just so out of the blue and it really shakes things up. So, kudos to the NBA writers for this plot twist.
It's almost a forgone conclusion they'll take Sarr because their C depth is a rapidly aging Capela and a 6'8" Onyeka Okongwu. Sarr seems to make a ton of sense. Could they fall in love with Clingan instead?
With that said, a SF like Risacher or Buzelis would make a lot of sense as well. I think either guy would slot nicely next to Jalen Johnson and give them a promising front court with length.
What does Atlanta do about Trae and DJM? Do they view this #1 pick as a true rebuilding opportunity or do they try to move one of these guys for a useful player as opposed to picks? Could that impact their draft strategy?
They have plenty of guard options (too many perhaps) so it seems it really comes down to wing and C


Washington

They "need everything" in the way the Spurs (outside of Wemby) kind of do. No one is really good enough to be irreplaceable on this team
With that said, they have plent of wings: Deni, Kispert, Bilal, Kuzma. So that doesn't appear an option unless they want to move some other guys.
Center and PG are obvious choices... Do they view Clingan as good enough to take at 2? With Topic now hurt again, I really think Dilly is in play here whereas I thought he could slide all the way down to 8 before.


Houston

If it weren't for the fact that we all hate the Rockets, I would find this another fun wrinkle to this draft. I'm fascinated by them at 3 because they don't have any obvious holes.
I assume they view their SL as FVV (for now), Green, Brooks, Jabari, Sengun. Amen could slot in for FVV or Brooks.
Whitmore and Eason are nice SF/PF guys on their bench... would they dare disrupt things by going Risacher or Matas?
Fans want Reed Sheppard, that seems like a fit if Amen moves into the SL for Brooks as a point forward
I feel like they are in a really great spot to consolidate some young players and this pick and go make a big move though. Seems up Ainge's alley for Lauri (ugh, I would hate this) or maybe they go back to Bridges or even look at a Khris Middleton.


Detroit

Poor bastards.
Seems like big wing is the obvious choice here, and if Risacher, Matas or maybe even Cody Williams is there they have to take them. The have plenty of young, talented guards, and Ausar at SF and Isaiah Stewart at PF. Steward isn't good enough to worry about displacing.
Duren looks solid, but is this maybe a sneaky Clingan destination?
Really tough spot for Detroit to land in if someone grabs Risacher and the Spurs love Matas. I don't see Holland as fit. Salaun here in maybe a surprise jump?
Really feel like this is worst case scenario for Detroit, who needs to pray that one of Risacher or Matas is left


Charlotte

This team is so irrelevant I forgot about them
PG and SF are locked up, but besides that who knows. I feel like they'll resign Bridges, as I don't know that there will be any other homes for him
Is Mark Williams THE GUY? Maybe Clingan here?
Castle makes a ton of sense, I assume they'll do that but we just found out today that Castle is a lot smaller than expected. Certainly not Knecht, right?


Portland

rascal promised me they'd get the #1 pick and draft Sarr. Oh well.
Guard looks set, but do they move Simons? Grant and Ayton on paper is a decent front court, but could this maybe be another Clingan spot? If not here, maybe Missi or Flip with their #14 pick?
This is maybe the biggest mystery to me. I don't appear to have obvious holes, but they also suck ass. Hard to evaluate


Memphis

I think this is Clingan's floor and god I hope someone else gets him first, because he's such a great fit here
Other than that, they have the luxury of just going BPA and setting up for next year. Knecht here maybe?


Utah

Need to caveat that they have the assets to move up anywhere they want, and that is dangerous



Another BPA kind of situation? Another team where it is hard to pinpoint a glaring hole but it's not like they are good, so who knows?


The one's ahead of us are what I'm focused on so far, although that'll change shortly I'm sure.

Atlanta- i think they're forced to trade the pick or trade Trae. I don't think we're going to want him and it'll suck for them, but i think they just bite the bullet.

Washington- I wouldn't be stunned if they took another wing and move off a couple of they guys on the roster. Deni would be of interest to me of he becomes available. If they take a guard (Dilly), they'll still move at least one of their wings.

Houston- I agree that Utah is the team to watch here with Lauri. If they don't do a dral then Shephard is their guy.

So, both PG's that are healthy will be off the board when it gets to us. Im not disappointed because Matas + Knecht, Holland, or Williams isn't a bad outcome.

[scott]

The one's ahead of us are what I'm focused on so far, although that'll change shortly I'm sure.

Atlanta- i think they're forced to trade the pick or trade Trae. I don't think we're going to want him and it'll suck for them, but i think they just bite the bullet.

Washington- I wouldn't be stunned if they took another wing and move off a couple of they guys on the roster. Deni would be of interest to me of he becomes available. If they take a guard (Dilly), they'll still move at least one of their wings.

Houston- I agree that Utah is the team to watch here with Lauri. If they don't do a dral then Shephard is their guy.

So, both PG's that are healthy will be off the board when it gets to us. Im not disappointed because Matas + Knecht, Holland, or Williams isn't a bad outcome.

What would you think about #8 for Deni? WAS might view that as an opportunity to make some rook for an income Wing and accelerate their rebuild a little. We could take Dilly and add Deni.

[DPG21920]

What would you think about #8 for Deni? WAS might view that as an opportunity to make some rook for an income Wing and accelerate their rebuild a little. We could take Dilly and add Deni.

Easily. Would I trade Cody, Dillingham, Holland or Knecht for Deni. I will take a for sure thing that’s 23 for that no doubt.

[mo7888]

What would you think about #8 for Deni? WAS might view that as an opportunity to make some rook for an income Wing and accelerate their rebuild a little. We could take Dilly and add Deni.

I probably wouldn't. I'd rather move Keldon who can play 3/4 and would pair pretty good in that role there and I think Deni fits better here with the SL.

[scott]

Easily. Would I trade Cody, Dillingham, Holland or Knecht for Deni. I will take a for sure thing that’s 23 for that no doubt.

So same answer if it's is Deni for #4?

[DPG21920]

So same answer if it's is Deni for #4?

Nope - because Risacher or Buzelis I’d rather have.

[Ariel]

What would you think about #8 for Deni? WAS might view that as an opportunity to make some rook for an income Wing and accelerate their rebuild a little. We could take Dilly and add Deni.
Avdija + Kispert for Zach Collins + Branham + Wesley + #8 + #35 + Charlotte pick

Spurs get young vets that fit better at the expense of #8 + minor draft capital, takes Collins contract off the books, and makes roster space for a few contributors.
Washington gives up 2 young and productive players but takes another swing at #8, gets a look at 2 young guys with potential that fit their timeline, and gambles by some miracle Charlotte makes the playoffs they'll get a mid teens pick in a loaded draft

With #4, Spurs either take Dillingham or Sheppard outright (or maybe Risacher), or if they think they can afford to get one of them at #7, offer Portland #4 for #7 + #14 and still get one of the Kentucky guards plus have a chance to take a swing with anyone who falls (Topic, McCain, Cody Williams, Holland, Collier Devin Carter, etc).

[mo7888]

Avdija + Kispert for Zach Collins + Branham + Wesley + #8 + #35 + Charlotte pick

Spurs get young vets that fit better at the expense of #8 + minor draft capital, takes Collins contract off the books, and makes roster space for a few contributors.
Washington gives up 2 young and productive players but takes another swing at #8, gets a look at 2 young guys with potential that fit their timeline, and gambles by some miracle Charlotte makes the playoffs they'll get a mid teens pick in a loaded draft

With #4, Spurs either take Dillingham or Sheppard outright (or maybe Risacher), or if they think they can afford to get one of them at #7, offer Portland #4 for #7 + #14 and still get one of the Kentucky guards plus have a chance to take a swing with anyone who falls (Topic, McCain, Cody Williams, Holland, Collier Devin Carter, etc).

Now that is tempting ...

[scott]

Avdija + Kispert for Zach Collins + Branham + Wesley + #8 + #35 + Charlotte pick

Spurs get young vets that fit better at the expense of #8 + minor draft capital, takes Collins contract off the books, and makes roster space for a few contributors.
Washington gives up 2 young and productive players but takes another swing at #8, gets a look at 2 young guys with potential that fit their timeline, and gambles by some miracle Charlotte makes the playoffs they'll get a mid teens pick in a loaded draft

With #4, Spurs either take Dillingham or Sheppard outright (or maybe Risacher), or if they think they can afford to get one of them at #7, offer Portland #4 for #7 + #14 and still get one of the Kentucky guards plus have a chance to take a swing with anyone who falls (Topic, McCain, Cody Williams, Holland, Collier Devin Carter, etc).

Where do I sign?

[vy65]

Avdija + Kispert for Zach Collins + Branham + Wesley + #8 + #35 + Charlotte pick

Spurs get young vets that fit better at the expense of #8 + minor draft capital, takes Collins contract off the books, and makes roster space for a few contributors.
Washington gives up 2 young and productive players but takes another swing at #8, gets a look at 2 young guys with potential that fit their timeline, and gambles by some miracle Charlotte makes the playoffs they'll get a mid teens pick in a loaded draft

With #4, Spurs either take Dillingham or Sheppard outright (or maybe Risacher), or if they think they can afford to get one of them at #7, offer Portland #4 for #7 + #14 and still get one of the Kentucky guards plus have a chance to take a swing with anyone who falls (Topic, McCain, Cody Williams, Holland, Collier Devin Carter, etc).

Why would WAS ever do that deal? Zollins is a negative asset given his salary. Avdija would be a top 4 pick this year. Kispert, Branham, and Wesley are all a wash. There’s no reason why anyone would trade Avdija for #8, which is what this trade is on its best day.

[Chinook]

Avdija + Kispert for Zach Collins + Branham + Wesley + #8 + #35 + Charlotte pick

I wouldn't be a fan just for 8, let along adding the other stuff. The Spurs aren't a contender, they don't need cost-controlled role-players. There's a very good chance that there will be a player drafted eighth or later who's better than Avdija or Kispert. The Spurs have to just find him.

[Chinook]

Anyway, this mock I just wanted said the Spurs should take Clingan with the fourth pick. Even though I'm fine with the Spurs exploring options for Wemby playing next to a big, I think this was a bad pick to give them. However, I did get me thinking about the Spurs trading down from 4 to a team like Memphis. The Spurs could get 9 plus additional compensation. There's a legit chance the Spurs still walk away with two of their top-five players, save some salary space and pick up an additional asset. While it's not normal for the Spurs to play draft games, this might be a good draft to try to snag a good deal.

[Ariel]

Why would WAS ever do that deal? Zollins is a negative asset given his salary. Avdija would be a top 4 pick this year. Kispert, Branham, and Wesley are all a wash. There’s no reason why anyone would trade Avdija for #8, which is what this trade is on its best day.
It's rather a swing for Washington, there are several 19 y.o. with perhaps higher upside that fit their timeline better and are more cost controlled, plus they gamble on a couple 21 year olds and some picks that likely yield nothing special but maybe not. Spurs basically transfer risk to Washington in exchange for production, Washington goes for upside. But you're right in that it's likely Washington that balks at this.

I wouldn't be a fan just for 8, let along adding the other stuff. The Spurs aren't a contender, they don't need cost-controlled role-players. There's a very good chance that there will be a player drafted eighth or later who's better than Avdija or Kispert. The Spurs have to just find him.
You're underselling Avdija, he isn't just a "cost controlled role player", he's instantly the best forward on the team, and a better fit with Wemby than anyone we have. You still have plenty of swings left with #4 plus all the other picks, it makes sense to also add some young vets who can contribute while still have room to grow.
As for "the Spurs have to just find him"... well, that's kind of the problem, isn't it?

[DPG21920]

Anyway, this mock I just wanted said the Spurs should take Clingan with the fourth pick. Even though I'm fine with the Spurs exploring options for Wemby playing next to a big, I think this was a bad pick to give them. However, I did get me thinking about the Spurs trading down from 4 to a team like Memphis. The Spurs could get 9 plus additional compensation. There's a legit chance the Spurs still walk away with two of their top-five players, save some salary space and pick up an additional asset. While it's not normal for the Spurs to play draft games, this might be a good draft to try to snag a good deal.

Agreed. This draft seems ripe for value. Either moving up or getting an extra pick if cost is low to get a guy you really like or like you said moving back and still getting 2 of your top guys.

[Chinook]

You're underselling Avdija, he isn't just a "cost controlled role player", he's instantly the best forward on the team, and a better fit with Wemby than anyone we have. You still have plenty of swings left with #4 plus all the other picks, it makes sense to also add some young vets who can contribute while still have room to grow.

I don't see that at all. I see "Mikal Bridges at home" -- a guy filling it up on a horrible team who people are overhyping because he signed a cheap long-term deal. Avdija's stats are not good. He wasn't close to the best Wizard last year. I'm not saying he doesn't still have some upside, but he's being overstated. It's not like if Deni were on the team, I would be pushing folks out of the way to trade for him, but the Spurs either need to aim much higher than this or let the draft work.


As for "the Spurs have to just find him"... well, that's kind of the problem, isn't it?

Not really? It's the problem in the sense it's the task before them, but it's not an impossible feat. It's really, really important to have both top-10 picks in a draft with so much uncertainty. There's no guarantee 8 won't be better than 4. The Spurs having both picks lets them relax way more during the process. It's a huge contrast to a team like Atlanta who cannot mess up their pick if they keep it or the Pistons who are desperate to get a player who can help lead them out of the bottom of the standings.

[scott]

the Pistons who are desperate to get a player who can help lead them out of the bottom of the standings.

I'm just curious why you see the Pistons as any more desperate to get out of the bottom of the standings that the Spurs? Their playoff drought runs exactly as long as our does, and they don't have a Superstar on their team that you'd think you'd want to start winning around.

[jesterbobman]

I think Memphis definitely seems like a Candidate to try and trade up (to Charlotte at 6?), as Adams was so good as a space eater that let JJJ roam, and Clingan fills the archetype better than other Centers in the draft (and Clingan is cheaper than Poeltl through a trade).

Even if it's just something like the Indiana Washington trade last year where they swapped 1sts and got Indiana got 2nds, that'd be great business. I'd love to be able to drop back a spot, still get our guy, then use assets to upgrade the second round pick to get Ware / Tyler Smith / faller in a higher tier on the Spurs board X (might be able to do this with 35 and 48, but that's a bit of a stretch).

[rascal]

Why would WAS ever do that deal? Zollins is a negative asset given his salary. Avdija would be a top 4 pick this year. Kispert, Branham, and Wesley are all a wash. There’s no reason why anyone would trade Avdija for #8, which is what this trade is on its best day.

Just a Spur fan wanting a trade that clearly favors the Spurs.

[ambchang]

Atlanta will get Sarr and will be a great fit with Trae. They should now look to trade dejounte for a couple of young shooters with potential and some mid to late loterry level draft capital.

With Sarr I believe the hawks will do much better and Trae young’s trade value will shoot up.

[The Truth #6]

WAS probably assumes Tyus Jones will bolt and so Reed and Dillingham could be in play.

[Mr. Body]

Rockets want to see the market for the #3 pick, although I don't think they'll see much.

As a note, Castle is just as big as we thought he was.

Washington really likes Avidja. He's like Coby White. These players are not for sale.

[DPG21920]

I'm just curious why you see the Pistons as any more desperate to get out of the bottom of the standings that the Spurs? Their playoff drought runs exactly as long as our does, and they don't have a Superstar on their team that you'd think you'd want to start winning around.

Huge difference in DET and Spurs despite some seemingly on paper similarities. DET is a panic and on fire right now. FO a mess, getting turned down for interviews, fans completely hopeless after years and years truly tanking/rebuilding. Players not fitting together, new coach not helping/working out.

Spurs fans are excited and team clearly has stability and on upswing during early rebuild. DET was supposed to be much better this season and it was a nightmare.

[TD 21]

1. Hawks - Defense is the prime need and Sarr is the obvious choice, with Risacher the likely only other consideration. Preference is apparently to move Young, Capela and Hunter, but door not closed on Murray or Okongwu.

2. Wizards - Offensive ceiling is the prime need, yet Risacher is the obvious choice, to be utilized to trade down for Topic (pending diagnosis) or Dillingham + as they're in asset accumulation mode. Not in a rush to move Kuzma, but he's obviously not in the long term plans and Avdija can probably be pried for a "good" 1st.

3. Rockets - Shooting is the prime need and rim protection is next, so Sheppard, followed by Clingan is the likely choice if retained but expect them to shop it for a top starter. Circling back to Nets for Bridges makes sense, especially with their need at lead guard.

5. Pistons - BPA. Duren is not a good enough defensive anchor to not select Clingan and Ivey hasn't shown enough offensively to not pick Dillingham, especially with incoming TBD POBO. That said, Buzelis is the cleanest fit and his agent is the son of their Vice Chairman. Seems like Cunningham is only definite keeper.

6. Hornets - Wing defense, athleticism, rim pressure. This feels like a Castle or Holland team. Bridges will probably be signed and traded.

7. Trail Blazers - Wings and shooting, but really BPA. Maybe a flyer on Salaun. Conventional wisdom suggests Brogdon is traded, but it could be Simons instead. Close to the tax while re-building is a no go.

[Mr. Body]

For all the swearing that teams draft BPA high in the lottery, pretty much every team is going to be drafting for fit.

Two teams that are in an awkward spot are Detroit and Portland. Washington will get to pick on a direction, Houston probably has a pick of shooter (Sheppard/Risacher) unless they trade. Charlotte is probably happy with defensive upside (Holland/Castle). But for Detroit... they may not see a shooter they need (not taking Dillingham). A lot of Pistons fans are talking Dalton Knecht. As for Portland, there's probably some awkwardness depending on what San Antonio and Charlotte do. I can see them wanting to see Castle or Holland drop.

Washington might determine how picks 4-8 go. And then, if the Rockets take Risacher if Washington doesn't, I can see Sheppard and Clingan both dropping.

[rankingtear]

HOU, DET are BPA teams they draft closer to traditional concepts of fans about best prospect. WAS, POR are the pure upside teams. CHA is best college player. That is how they have drafted so far.

[Uriel]

To me, given what the other teams will do, this draft is not that hard.

If Risacher is there at #4, you take him, then take Dillingham at #8. If he’s not there, you take Dillingham at #4 and draft the best available wing at #8.

[Mr. Body]

HOU, DET are BPA teams they draft closer to traditional concepts of fans about best prospect. WAS, POR are the pure upside teams. CHA is best college player. That is how they have drafted so far.

Houston and Detroit are looking for specific things. If Detroit doesn't find it, shooting, they have a bad time on their hands. They likely go with a forward. Portland also has too many guards, so if Dillingham is the best player, they won't take him. Charlotte also has specific needs. Every team is dealing with fit this draft.

[RC_Drunkford]

To me, given what the other teams will do, this draft is not that hard.

If Risacher is there at #4, you take him, then take Dillingham at #8. If he’s not there, you take Dillingham at #4 and draft the best available wing at #8.

I'd say if Risacher is not there you draft Buzelis, cause otherwise Detroit most likely takes him. Dillingham shuld be there at 8 regardless.

[CGD]

For all the swearing that teams draft BPA high in the lottery, pretty much every team is going to be drafting for fit.

Two teams that are in an awkward spot are Detroit and Portland. Washington will get to pick on a direction, Houston probably has a pick of shooter (Sheppard/Risacher) unless they trade. Charlotte is probably happy with defensive upside (Holland/Castle). But for Detroit... they may not see a shooter they need (not taking Dillingham). A lot of Pistons fans are talking Dalton Knecht. As for Portland, there's probably some awkwardness depending on what San Antonio and Charlotte do. I can see them wanting to see Castle or Holland drop.

Washington might determine how picks 4-8 go. And then, if the Rockets take Risacher if Washington doesn't, I can see Sheppard and Clingan both dropping.

This is good analysis. I agree that WAS is the lynchpin of this whole thing.

Additional thoughts:

- If the Spurs like Castle, I think they'd need to take him at 4. I don't think he gets past CHA.

- I assume the "top" wings (ZR, Matas, Holland) will go before 8, so if they take Castle I wonder if that puts Williams or Saluan at play at 8.

- It feels there is a break in the draft around 9. If Topic is there at 8, I think the Spurs may still take him despite the injuries.

- Read that the DET may be one of the teams most likely to trade out of 5. If Risacher is there at 4 and they see him as their only path to some shooting via this draft, is there a small trade that works that involves us moving back a spot?

- Alternatively, is there a deal with DET to move up to 5 using 8 and 35? DET traded 31 earlier this year so perhaps an early SRP (maybe both?) could appeal. That should still allow them to draft Kenect, while picking up an asset.

[dbestpro]

Topic with the injury yet again could fall to number 8.

[TD 21]

- If the Spurs like Castle, I think they'd need to take him at 4. I don't think he gets past CHA.

- I assume the "top" wings (ZR, Matas, Holland) will go before 8, so if they take Castle I wonder if that puts Williams or Saluan at play at 8.

Maybe not, but the Hornets are probably the only team that might select Castle before 8, they're in asset accumulation mode and I doubt they'd be so high on him to turn down 8+, especially when they can select a similar type in Holland.

The Spurs expending 4 on an archetype that has a high bust rate and a player who in many ways is the antithesis of what they need would be asinine . . . and yet unfortunately can't be ruled out.

[jesterbobman]

The other thing to consider is the teams just below us, and wanting to trade up.

Memphis seems very likely to want Clingan, who could go out of their reach and trade up.

Likewise, Chicago has perimeter talent but Vucevic is not great, and could look to trade up. If Chicago offered 11 and reducing protections on their pick (e.g top 8, top 6, top 4) for 8 I'd be open to that deal, just for the additional value/ certainty of the pick conveying.

[Ariel]

The other thing to consider is the teams just below us, and wanting to trade up.

Memphis seems very likely to want Clingan, who could go out of their reach and trade up.

Likewise, Chicago has perimeter talent but Vucevic is not great, and could look to trade up. If Chicago offered 11 and reducing protections on their pick (e.g top 8, top 6, top 4) for 8 I'd be open to that deal, just for the additional value/ certainty of the pick conveying.
Was about to post this. Lots of teams could be interested in trading up, especially to no. 4:
Detroit at 5: just one pick but could be an important one given their needs, so maybe add in a Keldon / Ivey swap, or a top 4 protected '25 FRP swap.
Charlotte at 6: some players are all but certain to be gone by them, especially the wings. so lowering the protections and extendiing the years of the pick they owe could be a good compromise for both teams. Say something like top 8 protected in '25 and top 4 protected in '26.
Portland at 7: maybe they could offer a future swap, or a Keldon / Simmons swap. Also they have another pick at 14 which could be used to catch someone who falls (Topic, Cody Williams, Collier, Clingan, McCain, Devin Carter, etc).
Chicago at 11: I'd be asking for them to remove all protections. If they want to move up to 8, then having the protections reduced to top 6 or top 8 sounds reasonable.
Lots of possibilities, hope the FO approaches the draft with an open mind and explores the market.

[scott]

I like the way of thinking, but I can't imagine CHA or CHI wanting to jeopardize their 2025 prospects just to move up in this one. Charlotte probably doesn't even care or think about that pick they owe us at this point, and expect to be back in the lotto next year. CHI I could see the possibility that they just move into solid rebuilding mode and have been waiting for next year to really do it.

[mo7888]

Was about to post this. Lots of teams could be interested in trading up, especially to no. 4:
Detroit at 5: just one pick but could be an important one given their needs, so maybe add in a Keldon / Ivey swap, or a top 4 protected '25 FRP swap.
Charlotte at 6: some players are all but certain to be gone by them, especially the wings. so lowering the protections and extendiing the years of the pick they owe could be a good compromise for both teams. Say something like top 8 protected in '25 and top 4 protected in '26.
Portland at 7: maybe they could offer a future swap, or a Keldon / Simmons swap. Also they have another pick at 14 which could be used to catch someone who falls (Topic, Cody Williams, Collier, Clingan, McCain, Devin Carter, etc).
Chicago at 11: I'd be asking for them to remove all protections. If they want to move up to 8, then having the protections reduced to top 6 or top 8 sounds reasonable.
Lots of possibilities, hope the FO approaches the draft with an open mind and explores the market.

Detroit and Portland make the most sens to trade up within the top 10. I think Monte would be pretty high on a Keldon deal.

[Ariel]

I like the way of thinking, but I can't imagine CHA or CHI wanting to jeopardize their 2025 prospects just to move up in this one. Charlotte probably doesn't even care or think about that pick they owe us at this point, and expect to be back in the lotto next year. CHI I could see the possibility that they just move into solid rebuilding mode and have been waiting for next year to really do it.
Probably true, but sometimes teams fool themselves into thinking they'll do better than you'd realistically expect, and Chicago fits that mold: lets remember when they traded for Vucevic and gave up WCJ + 2 lottery picks (8 & 11) one of which became Franz Wagner. After all, they see themselves as a playoff aspiring team, plus it's not like they can expect to jump into top 4 for a couple 2nd rounders.

As for Charlotte, you could make the case either way: if they're a high lottery team, it's likely the pick doesn't convey either way, and even if it does it won't be one of the more high profile targets. If they REALLY value a given player much higher than the rest and he's projected to be gone by 4, they might take the prospect they have now, over a pick that may be theirs anyway. It'd be a case of making a compromise on the protections (lower protectiosn for one year, higher protections for 2/3, etc).

[scott]

Probably true, but sometimes teams fool themselves into thinking they'll do better than you'd realistically expect, and Chicago fits that mold: lets remember when they traded for Vucevic and gave up WCJ + 2 lottery picks (8 & 11) one of which became Franz Wagner. After all, they see themselves as a playoff aspiring team, plus it's not like they can expect to jump into top 4 for a couple 2nd rounders.

As for Charlotte, you could make the case either way: if they're a high lottery team, it's likely the pick doesn't convey either way, and even if it does it won't be one of the more high profile targets. If they REALLY value a given player much higher than the rest and he's projected to be gone by 4, they might take the prospect they have now, over a pick that may be theirs anyway. It'd be a case of making a compromise on the protections (lower protectiosn for one year, higher protections for 2/3, etc).

Chicago is going to be interesting and I think we'll know pretty quickly this offseason on whether we need to a "Chicago Pick Watch" thread. If they let Demar walk and trade Lavine for peanuts... I think we'll need to be concerned.

[Knoxxx]

Castle at 4 then worst case is Topic/Knecht/Willams at 8. Possibly someone more interesting if Klingon doesn’t go top 7.

[scott]

Hawks brass courtside watching Risacher today.

If he goes #1, that does shake things up a little bit. At that point I think the first major pivot point is with Houston, who I could see taking Sheppard or Buzelis, but also maybe Clingan Then the Spurs have a few choices to make. Here are some scenarios, using what I think the big board should look like (which is probably not reality, but the best I can do). There are some scenarios here where Detroit is really kind of fucked, because I think they really desperately want one of the top 3 wings, but I have Sheppard as the backup plan for them. Maybe it's Castle or Williams though. I'm assuming POR will want Wing, but I don't know. In many cases they are left only with Williams to choose from and I'm not sure he fits that team. I could see them going Clingan as well. Don't see them taking Sheppard.

The way to read this chart: if you see a blank, then that pick is unchanged from the pick in that slot immediately to the left. I don't love the scenarios where we get Dilly and Sheppard, largely because as see those as risks that the Spurs do something stupid (like take Salaun).




Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5


ATL
Risacher






WAS
Sarr






HOU
Sheppard
Buzelis


Clingan


SA
Buzelis
Dillingham
Holland
Sheppard
Buzelis


DET
Holland
Holland
Sheppard
Holland
Holland


CHA
Castle
Castle
Castle
Castle
Castle


POR
Williams
Williams
Williams
Williams
Williams


SA
Dillingham
Sheppard
Dillingham
Dillingham
Dillingham

[mo7888]

Hawks brass courtside watching Risacher today.

If he goes #1, that does shake things up a little bit. At that point I think the first major pivot point is with Houston, who I could see taking Sheppard or Buzelis, but also maybe Clingan Then the Spurs have a few choices to make. Here are some scenarios, using what I think the big board should look like (which is probably not reality, but the best I can do). There are some scenarios here where Detroit is really kind of fucked, because I think they really desperately want one of the top 3 wings, but I have Sheppard as the backup plan for them. Maybe it's Castle or Williams though. I'm assuming POR will want Wing, but I don't know. In many cases they are left only with Williams to choose from and I'm not sure he fits that team. I could see them going Clingan as well. Don't see them taking Sheppard.

The way to read this chart: if you see a blank, then that pick is unchanged from the pick in that slot immediately to the left. I don't love the scenarios where we get Dilly and Sheppard, largely because as see those as risks that the Spurs do something stupid (like take Salaun).




Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5


ATL
Risacher






WAS
Sarr






HOU
Sheppard
Buzelis


Clingan


SA
Buzelis
Dillingham
Holland
Sheppard
Buzelis


DET
Holland
Holland
Sheppard
Holland
Holland


CHA
Castle
Castle
Castle
Castle
Castle


POR
Williams
Williams
Williams
Williams
Williams


SA
Dillingham
Sheppard
Dillingham
Dillingham
Dillingham



If Atlanta goes Risacher it gets interesting because I'm not sure Washington goes Sarr. If they go with a PG does Houston take Sarr? How far can he fall?

[scott]

If Atlanta goes Risacher it gets interesting because I'm not sure Washington goes Sarr. If they go with a PG does Houston take Sarr? How far can he fall?

A Sarr to DET scenario would be interesting, because it would give them two athletic, non-shooting big men. Paired with Ausar, they could set the league back 20 years trying to win games 79-77!

[Mr. Body]

I think the Spurs grab Sarr if he's there. At the very least field offers to drop a little.

But he won't drop.

[Mr. Body]

I think the Spurs grab Sarr if he's there. At the very least field offers to drop a little.

But he won't drop.

[CGD]

If Atlanta goes Risacher it gets interesting because I'm not sure Washington goes Sarr. If they go with a PG does Houston take Sarr? How far can he fall?

WAS absolutely takes Sarr if he’s there at 2. Their fans here want that too fwiw

[CGD]

Hawks brass courtside watching Risacher today.

If he goes #1, that does shake things up a little bit. At that point I think the first major pivot point is with Houston, who I could see taking Sheppard or Buzelis, but also maybe Clingan Then the Spurs have a few choices to make. Here are some scenarios, using what I think the big board should look like (which is probably not reality, but the best I can do). There are some scenarios here where Detroit is really kind of fucked, because I think they really desperately want one of the top 3 wings, but I have Sheppard as the backup plan for them. Maybe it's Castle or Williams though. I'm assuming POR will want Wing, but I don't know. In many cases they are left only with Williams to choose from and I'm not sure he fits that team. I could see them going Clingan as well. Don't see them taking Sheppard.

The way to read this chart: if you see a blank, then that pick is unchanged from the pick in that slot immediately to the left. I don't love the scenarios where we get Dilly and Sheppard, largely because as see those as risks that the Spurs do something stupid (like take Salaun).




Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5


ATL
Risacher






WAS
Sarr






HOU
Sheppard
Buzelis


Clingan


SA
Buzelis
Dillingham
Holland
Sheppard
Buzelis


DET
Holland
Holland
Sheppard
Holland
Holland


CHA
Castle
Castle
Castle
Castle
Castle


POR
Williams
Williams
Williams
Williams
Williams


SA
Dillingham
Sheppard
Dillingham
Dillingham
Dillingham



I’m think Risacher and Sarr go 1/2 though the order is unclear. The interesting pick will be Houston, and whether they cut a deal to move off it.

[pad300]

Hawks brass courtside watching Risacher today.

If he goes #1, that does shake things up a little bit. At that point I think the first major pivot point is with Houston, who I could see taking Sheppard or Buzelis, but also maybe Clingan Then the Spurs have a few choices to make. Here are some scenarios, using what I think the big board should look like (which is probably not reality, but the best I can do). There are some scenarios here where Detroit is really kind of fucked, because I think they really desperately want one of the top 3 wings, but I have Sheppard as the backup plan for them. Maybe it's Castle or Williams though. I'm assuming POR will want Wing, but I don't know. In many cases they are left only with Williams to choose from and I'm not sure he fits that team. I could see them going Clingan as well. Don't see them taking Sheppard.

The way to read this chart: if you see a blank, then that pick is unchanged from the pick in that slot immediately to the left. I don't love the scenarios where we get Dilly and Sheppard, largely because as see those as risks that the Spurs do something stupid (like take Salaun).




Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5


ATL
Risacher






WAS
Sarr






HOU
Sheppard
Buzelis


Clingan


SA
Buzelis
Dillingham
Holland
Sheppard
Buzelis


DET
Holland
Holland
Sheppard
Holland
Holland


CHA
Castle
Castle
Castle
Castle
Castle


POR
Williams
Williams
Williams
Williams
Williams


SA
Dillingham
Sheppard
Dillingham
Dillingham
Dillingham



So you have Topic dropping outside the top 8 in all your scenarios... Let's just say I think you're seriously underestimating him as a prospect.

[scott]

So you have Topic dropping outside the top 8 in all your scenarios... Let's just say I think you're seriously underestimating him as a prospect.

That's fine, but I think he's an overrated prospect who now has injury concerns with only two teams in the Top 8 who will realistically take a PG (and one of them is taking Sarr in this scenario).

[CGD]

So you have Topic dropping outside the top 8 in all your scenarios... Let's just say I think you're seriously underestimating him as a prospect.

I agree, i think he's a clear Top 5 pick even with the slight knee injury.

[scott]

Updated the original post to include information being discussed in multiple threads and around the internet.

[Dejounte]

Updated the original post to include information being discussed in multiple threads and around the internet.

doing the lord’s work!

By the way:

https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/2024/05/18/woj-views-rockets-as-potential-landing-spot-for-donovan-clingan-expects-more-interviews/

[scott]

doing the lord’s work!

By the way:

https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/2024/05/18/woj-views-rockets-as-potential-landing-spot-for-donovan-clingan-expects-more-interviews/

Good looking out! Interesting that they might feel Clingan can develop a 3pt shot. I have a hard time fully grasping what a long-term Rockets lineup looks like with Clingan in the start 5. Something like this below?

Amen
Green
Jabari
Sengun
Clingan

Lots of length there, could potentially be a defensive beast. Sengun has a decent stroke that kind of reminds me of Big Daddy Val, but he's still a career .300 3-point shooter. Amen, Sengun and Clingan in the starting 5 seems like a shooting disaster, especially since Green isn't exactly lights out himself and Jabari is still developing.

This is one of those "makes sense... but does it?" kind of ideas.

Castle doesn't make any sense to me... seems awfully redundant with Amen, unless the goal was to have 48 minutes of the same archetype playing? Number 3 pick seems rich for that.

Still feels like Houston's best move would be to consolidate some draft capital and some of the young wing talent they have and try to make a big move.

[baseline bum]

Good looking out! Interesting that they might feel Clingan can develop a 3pt shot. I have a hard time fully grasping what a long-term Rockets lineup looks like with Clingan in the start 5. Something like this below?

Amen
Green
Jabari
Sengun
Clingan

Lots of length there, could potentially be a defensive beast. Sengun has a decent stroke that kind of reminds me of Big Daddy Val, but he's still a career .300 3-point shooter. Amen, Sengun and Clingan in the starting 5 seems like a shooting disaster, especially since Green isn't exactly lights out himself and Jabari is still developing.

This is one of those "makes sense... but does it?" kind of ideas.

Castle doesn't make any sense to me... seems awfully redundant with Amen, unless the goal was to have 48 minutes of the same archetype playing? Number 3 pick seems rich for that.

Still feels like Houston's best move would be to consolidate some draft capital and some of the young wing talent they have and try to make a big move.

Feels like a smoke screen to get someone who could really use Clingan to offer more than they would initially to move up and get him.

[Ariel]

Hawks brass courtside watching Risacher today.

If he goes #1, that does shake things up a little bit. At that point I think the first major pivot point is with Houston, who I could see taking Sheppard or Buzelis, but also maybe Clingan Then the Spurs have a few choices to make. Here are some scenarios, using what I think the big board should look like (which is probably not reality, but the best I can do). There are some scenarios here where Detroit is really kind of fucked, because I think they really desperately want one of the top 3 wings, but I have Sheppard as the backup plan for them. Maybe it's Castle or Williams though. I'm assuming POR will want Wing, but I don't know. In many cases they are left only with Williams to choose from and I'm not sure he fits that team. I could see them going Clingan as well. Don't see them taking Sheppard.

The way to read this chart: if you see a blank, then that pick is unchanged from the pick in that slot immediately to the left. I don't love the scenarios where we get Dilly and Sheppard, largely because as see those as risks that the Spurs do something stupid (like take Salaun).




Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5


ATL
Risacher






WAS
Sarr






HOU
Sheppard
Buzelis


Clingan


SA
Buzelis
Dillingham
Holland
Sheppard
Buzelis


DET
Holland
Holland
Sheppard
Holland
Holland


CHA
Castle
Castle
Castle
Castle
Castle


POR
Williams
Williams
Williams
Williams
Williams


SA
Dillingham
Sheppard
Dillingham
Dillingham
Dillingham





I think Sarr and Risacher go top 2 in some combination, whomever Atlanta doesn't take probably Washington does.
Houston is a wild card, I don't buy the Dillingham hype, he doesn't strike me as an Ime kind of PG (Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Fred VanVleet, etc). Probably Sheppard or Clingan make the most sense, but they could be tempted to trade down, especially for Clingan. If they like Sheppard, trading behind the Spurs should give them pause.
Spurs probably need to pick a wing here, given the teams 5-7 wings have a smaller chance of getting to 8. I'd say Castle is probably the favorite, with Buzelis and Cody Williams being in play as well.
Detroit at 5 is a tough one. Holland looks like a guy Troy Weaver would take, which is what got them in this predicament in the first place, so with the franchise head hunting for a new POBO I expect them to follow a more sensible approach. Cody Williams or even Sheppard (if available) make the most sense, but I think they go Buzelis who, despite his awful shooting numbers this season, is more defensible in terms of HS stats.
Charlotte probably takes a wing/forward, with Miles Bridges possibly gone and pretty good shooting in Brandon Miller and Lamelo, Buzelis or Holland would make sense here.
Portland is an enygma. They usually go for perceived upside, and here that would probably be Topic but they already are invested in Scoot, and developing 2 non shooting, ball dominant PGs is a challenge. They probably take whatever wing is available.
Spurs at 8 should take very much into consideratio what they did at 4, if by some miracle Risacher made it to 4 then they'd have more leeway, if they went with Castle they you need a shooter and there aren't many left, probably whomever is left of Dillingham, Sheppard or Cody Williams.
Memphis at 9 should go Clingan if available, else maybe whomever is left of Sheppard or Cody Williams.
Utah at 10 should go for upside, probably Holland if he fell here, otherwise Salaun, Topic or Collier.
Chicago at 11 is difficult, they don't seem like a very logical team in anything they do, but a Knecht, Edey or Salaun could make sense.
OKC at 12 goes for big guys who project as shooters, probably Salaun or Filipowski make the most sense, unless for some miracle Cody Williams made it here.
Sacramento at 13 should go for contribution, probably someone like Knecht, McCain, Devin Carter or Filipowski.
In the last lottery spot, Portland takes whatever upside is left: maybe Topic if he slid due to injury, or Collier as another boom / bust insurance for Scoot.

This is a rough scenario that I could see happening. Did a couple lottery mocks at fanspo, focusing more on the other teams than the Spurs:

Mock 1:
https://i.postimg.cc/Y9YQ26MX/a.png

Mock 2:
https://i.postimg.cc/jjRXFkTs/b.png

[scott]

Thanks Ariel, could definitely see both of those scenarios playing out and one thing I definitely agree with is that from 5-7 we're likely to see all the wings taken. Theoretically you could roll the dice and go Dillingham/Sheppard at 4, but only if you are happy with whatever is left of Castle/Buz/Holland/Williams or you like Knecht or Salaun (which would be very meh for me). With that said, in the possibility that two wings (Risacher + one other) go in the Top 3, then the heat will really be on the Spurs to take one at 4.

Interesting that you're slotting Castle as a wing, despite his comments about being a PG. I wonder if he would care much if he ended up a lead ball handling wing (though I'm not sure he is necessarily the right lead ball handler for our team).

[scott]

Here's a scenario I threw together to be a little different.




Houston gets to move down and still gets their man plus some compensation
Detroit gets their pick of wing rather than the Spurs left overs
I'm theorizing that the Spurs view Castle as a PG and they don't love Holland or Williams here, and they see a diamond in the rough with Salaun (I would not like this)
A run on 4s and 5s at the end of the lotto
https://i.postimg.cc/x8QVzKBg/fanspo-nba-mock-draft-snap-5-20-2024-3-26-09-PM.png

[tbdog]

What's with France making tall NBA players.

[CGD]

I’m really curious how the Spurs view Matas. I haven’t seen anything linking the two yet (mocks, workouts, etc).

Do they really pass on him if ZR and the 2 Cs go 1-3, and they think a PG they like will be there at 8?

[Mr. Body]

I’m really curious how the Spurs view Matas. I haven’t seen anything linking the two yet (mocks, workouts, etc).

Do they really pass on him if ZR and the 2 Cs go 1-3, and they think a PG they like will be there at 8?

I don't think we have any chatter from the organization whatsoever, other than indirectly by way of Wemby talking about his countrymen. It's just been fanbases surmising, and each sub/message board has its favorites. Two players that haven't been discussed much at all, that I've seen among r/nbaspurs or Pounding the Rock or here, are Buzelis and Topic.

[rjv]

Here's a scenario I threw together to be a little different.




Houston gets to move down and still gets their man plus some compensation
Detroit gets their pick of wing rather than the Spurs left overs
I'm theorizing that the Spurs view Castle as a PG and they don't love Holland or Williams here, and they see a diamond in the rough with Salaun (I would not like this)
A run on 4s and 5s at the end of the lotto
https://i.postimg.cc/x8QVzKBg/fanspo-nba-mock-draft-snap-5-20-2024-3-26-09-PM.png



i can totally see this happening on draft night.

[scott]

The more I think of it, the more a DET/HOU swap seems to make sense to me. In fact, for Houston it make sense to make a series of moves down before consolidating assets and moving out altogether and trading for an established name.

[K...]

why would det need to trade up to get buzelis? scared the spurs might take him? i haven't seen buszelis mocked that high

[scott]

why would det need to trade up to get buzelis? scared the spurs might take him? i haven't seen buszelis mocked that high

It would be based solely on having the ability to take any wing they wanted, before the Spurs. If DET wants Buzelis and don't think the Spurs will take him - then there is no need to do this deal. But if the Spurs are a perceived risk, then this makes a lot of sense and probably won't cost much.

[CGD]

The more I think of it, the more a DET/HOU swap seems to make sense to me. In fact, for Houston it make sense to make a series of moves down before consolidating assets and moving out altogether and trading for an established name.

I think this could happen is ZR is that at 3. I suspect a number of teams would call if that were the case, not just DET. Potentially playoff teams looking for plug and play depth.

Houston probably would do it for the right veteran too. For example, not sure if the Middleton interest is fully gone, but that could be a good swap to start a small reboot in MIL. Or 3/Green/Eason for Mitchell.

[Ariel]

The more I think of it, the more a DET/HOU swap seems to make sense to me. In fact, for Houston it make sense to make a series of moves down before consolidating assets and moving out altogether and trading for an established name.
I think Detroit only trades up if Risacher is at 3, otherwise they can just take the next available wing (Buzelis, Cody Williams), shooter (Sheppard, and move on from Ivey) or rim protector (Duren is vastly overrated and leaves a lot to be desired on defense, Clingan would be an immediate upgrade).