2024 Hurricane Season

[UNT Eagles 2016]

All major outlets are predicting a near-record or record-breaking 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, at least in terms of overall accumulated cyclone energy, total hurricanes, and total major hurricanes. Will be difficult to beat the 30 named storms of 2020, but that year had a ton of weak and short-lived storms that arguably should not have been named.

Official government forecast is for 17-25 named storms, the most bullish forecast in history.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season

Current Sea surface temperature anomalies centralized in the Atlantic similar to 2005. Neutral conditions persist as of late May 2024 with a displaced La Nina to the east and El Nino persisting in the West Pacific equatorially. This is known as the Modoki setup which is very similar to what happened from 2004 leading into 2005, the most powerful and devastating hurricane season in modern history, including Katrina, Dennis, Rita, and Wilma. Expect La Nina to gradually strengthen between now and the end of 2024 and for a weak to moderate La Nina to impact the coming winter.


https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/cb/ssta/ssta.daily.current.png

[UNT Eagles 2016]

June Fajrun, but, no "A" storm yet or nothing on the horizon.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

As per the SST maps, seems like El Nino Modoki seems to persist. La Nina in the East Pacific, but El Nino remains in the 3.4 and 4 regions, closer to the West Pacific and Indonesia.

Reminds me a lot of June 2005. Ominous. We didn't get a storm that year until mid June but then it REALLY ramped up quickly.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

I will say this, in early June 2005 the "neutral" across the Pacific was more evenly spread out, and we didn't have that hot pool in the far north Pacific near Alaska like this year.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2005/anomnight.6.4.2005.gif

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Easterly La Nina / El Nino Modoki split continues to persist. SST anomalies have cooled in the southern Atlantic near the Gulf of Guinea, though not nearly to the extent of 2005 to this point. Wind shear is still too strong to permit most development in the Atlantic, but we do have our first couple disturbances. The one off the East coast won't develop, but I expect to see our first named storm out of the orange coded one in the Bay of Campeche:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_7d0.png

[UNT Eagles 2016]

baseline bum

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024061318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_49.png

[UNT Eagles 2016]

18Z is 13:00 so 1PM CDT.

in honor of summer 2022 Marissa, it's 19:06 in Michigan and Ohio... 18:06 in Texas.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

That's definitely a landfalling 50-60 MPH tropical storm Alberto and a big time soaker for South Texas.

[baseline bum]

baseline bum

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024061318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_49.png

Yeah no I'm not taking much from a nonlinear differential equation's time series two weeks out.

[Ef-man]

Ok, I see 9 posts but where are Andy's travel logs, dating opportunities, taking mom along in travel, political landscape, misogamy references, and misadventures at?

[UNT Eagles 2016]

travel logs

Google Timeline shut down literally on May 24th and my phone deleted all of that data. Before, in the past 15 and a half years I've been able to store it neatly on my web browser. Given that I'm a millennial and thus a computer person and not a phone person, the future seems very bleak.


dating opportunities

Very bleak. I haven't had sex since May 29th, 2023, in Wausau, Wisconsin. That relationship ended June 2, 2023 with me calling the cops on her for stranding me at a dentist office Amanda drove off threw a 7 year old girl temper tantrum and almost crushed my feet with her Nissan Rogue in the process.. I haven't had any decent shot at any relationship with anyone else since.


taking mom along in travel

Non existent since June 4-July 5, 2022. But, that trip home with her shouldn't have happened. Not only was I completely dead and cranky at 1:30am when mega construction forced me off I-35 in Waco on the night of July 5th/ going into 6th, costing me an hour in time and more in sanity, but if I would only have just paid for the extended stay at that hotel to help Marissa transition away from her parents' house into living with me, I probably would have had a good wife by now in her. Instead, I dumped her in the parking lot, in Plymouth Michigan because I'm a jerk, at least was in 2022. The way that relationship ended... was completely my fault.


political landscape
It's going to be close. Whoever wins wins fair and square, I just hope the counting is completed on the night of election night and all relevant states and the presidency can be called. 2020 was shenanigans. 2012 was fair and square. 2016 and 2008 also.


misogamy references
Yeah, I was railroaded. Don't even get me started. I'm appealing the adjudication, for sure, and have a damn good lawyer up there in Lynchburg VA. She's going to get that shit overturned, but it can take up to another year or so.


misadventures
I've had 1 good adventure (the week in Florida, flew) and two "misadventures" (bad adventures, waste of trip etc), one in early March to MI and MN which was about a week, and the other one in spring spent the majority of it in MI and OH and was pretty much lonely throughout the way. Don't feel like traveling anymore honestly, especially with my Google Timeline memories ripped from the internet server which is essentially my brain.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Could Hurricane Beryl Hit Texas, Deluge San Antonio? baseline bum


The rapidly deepening hurricane off the coast of Africa is set to move west-northwest through the Caribbean, and models seem to be pointing in the general direction of San Antonio:

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c211f80f2617f3fc3ef822a18c28160377745c41ce5a90cdb3 42de26e3a1c396.png

[UNT Eagles 2016]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/13/20241820420_GOES16-ABI-car-13-2000x2000.jpg

[GAustex]

Hopefully hits King Ranch and runs up north about 60 miles west of IH 35 and fills up Lake Travis

[baseline bum]

Could Hurricane Beryl Hit Texas, Deluge San Antonio? baseline bum


The rapidly deepening hurricane off the coast of Africa is set to move west-northwest through the Caribbean, and models seem to be pointing in the general direction of San Antonio:

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c211f80f2617f3fc3ef822a18c28160377745c41ce5a90cdb3 42de26e3a1c396.png

Way too far out still

[GAustex]

Hopefully hits King Ranch and runs up north about 60 miles west of IH 35 and fills up Lake Travis

[GAustex]

Track appears slipping to the east
Rats

[baseline bum]

Track appears slipping to the east
Rats

Crap as of the 10PM update San Antonio is barely even in the cone of prediction, Austin is in the west end of the cone, and the center of the cone at landfall has moved all the way up from Corpus at the 4PM update to Port Lavaca. This thing's probably gonna go to Houston or maybe even LA and we're not going to get shit from it. I bet when tomorrow's NOAA forecast for the area drops we'll go from having high 80s to low 90s for a few days to mid 90s for a couple and then back to ~100.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Crap as of the 10PM update San Antonio is barely even in the cone of prediction, Austin is in the west end of the cone, and the center of the cone at landfall has moved all the way up from Corpus at the 4PM update to Port Lavaca. This thing's probably gonna go to Houston or maybe even LA and we're not going to get shit from it. I bet when tomorrow's NOAA forecast for the area drops we'll go from having high 80s to low 90s for a few days to mid 90s for a couple and then back to ~100.

KMOL (channel 4) has a cat 3 direct strike on Bay City

[Robz4000]

:lol SA not predicted to get any rain from it now

[lebomb]

The San Antonio rainfall DOME strikes again. :depressed

[djohn2oo8]

The San Antonio rainfall DOME strikes again. :depressed
Man this might end up being a Cat 3 :lol

Y’all might have lucked out

[baseline bum]

Man this might end up being a Cat 3 :lol

Y’all might have lucked out

Wouldn't be anything close to Cat 3 upon hitting SA, so would have rather had it come here, give us some rain, and cool us off for a few days. Now we'll get shit from it.

[Trainwreck2100]

Man this might end up being a Cat 3 :lol

Y’all might have lucked out

only gonna be a cat 3 because it's missing us.

[lebomb]

San Antonio FORCE FIELD locked in............ :pctoss

[UNT Eagles 2016]

only gonna be a cat 3 because it's missing us.

It's not even a cat 1 yet which I expected. I see no signs of reintensification into a major hurricane.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Wouldn't be anything close to Cat 3 upon hitting SA, so would have rather had it come here, give us some rain, and cool us off for a few days. Now we'll get shit from it.

If it came directly from the east/southeast like near Port Lavaca and was heading west/northwest as a cat 4-5 at a solid clip there is a solid chance San Antonio could get a direct eye hit from a cat 2 or 3. But that is not the case with Beryl.

[baseline bum]

It's not even a cat 1 yet which I expected. I see no signs of reintensification into a major hurricane.

If it hits the east side of the cone and the eye goes to Houston it'll be travelling over some very hot gulf water that wasn't cooled down by Alberto.

[GAustex]

Come on Beryl slide to the west

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Come on Beryl slide to the west

Nooooooooooo

Already had some goddamn rain today almost lost power, don't need any more! Don't need the stupid lawn growing fast again.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

It's a small storm, still a 60 MPH TS, hasn't strengthened AT ALL, and the cone continues to nudge east. All good news.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/031929_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[baseline bum]

It's a small storm, still a 60 MPH TS, hasn't strengthened AT ALL, and the cone continues to nudge east. All good news.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/031929_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

How is that good news? No rain and no cooling for us.

[lebomb]

Nooooooooooo

Already had some goddamn rain today almost lost power, don't need any more! Don't need the stupid lawn growing fast again.


Speak for yoself brutha. Here on the NW side we got a ton of thunder, but not one gattdayum drop of rain. Not a single drop. :flipoff

[GAustex]

Come on Beryl slide to the west

[baseline bum]

Come on Beryl slide to the west

Give it up, Austin is already like 60 miles outside of the edge of the cone. Though you'll still get way more rain than San Antonio.

[GAustex]

Come on Beryl slide to the west
Positive thinking
No to negative energy

[baseline bum]

Positive thinking
No to negative energy

I'm positive Houston stole all our rain

[baseline bum]

LOL our big cooldown from Beryl is it gets to 96 tomorrow. Though they predicted 96 yesterday and instead it got to 101.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

How is that good news? No rain and no cooling for us.

No flooding, no power outages

[baseline bum]

No flooding, no power outages

Meh I had my fucking power go out this morning when the weather was fine.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Meh I had my fucking power go out this morning when the weather was fine.
It flickered for me last night when the rain came and there was some thunder and lightning. I don't recall it ever going out in summer in my lifetime here when there's no lightning or inclement weather

[UNT Eagles 2016]

but yeah, Beryl is a bust. Still 65 MPH tropical storm :lmao

also the invest 96L behind it which was supposed to develop just died a couple days back. Seems like this hurricane season won't be what it was made out to be.

[baseline bum]

but yeah, Beryl is a bust. Still 65 MPH tropical storm :lmao

also the invest 96L behind it which was supposed to develop just died a couple days back. Seems like this hurricane season won't be what it was made out to be.

I don't remember 96L ever being forecast to have more than a 10% chance of development.

[GAustex]

Houston gonna get flooded

[UNT Eagles 2016]

I don't remember 96L ever being forecast to have more than a 10% chance of development.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/atl/202407010257/two_atl_7d0.png

[UNT Eagles 2016]

I don't remember 96L ever being forecast to have more than a 10% chance of development.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/gtwo_archive.php?basin=atl&fdays=7&current_issuance=202407010257

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Beryl, located a couple hundred miles east of the Windward Islands
and on newly formed Tropical Depression Three, located over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.


Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Forecaster Pasch

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Houston gonna get flooded

Nah. Not even Harvey level event.

[baseline bum]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/gtwo_archive.php?basin=atl&fdays=7¤t_issuance=202407010257

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Beryl, located a couple hundred miles east of the Windward Islands
and on newly formed Tropical Depression Three, located over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.


Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Forecaster Pasch

Well shit :lol

Guess I was only watching Beryl and didn't notice the invest until it was only 10%

[djohn2oo8]

Nah. Not even Harvey level event.
Maybe not that severe but it will be a decent flood

[Tyronn Lue]

We need a long drenching rain in the hill country. I don't care if San Antonio gets a lot or not, but further west and northwest needs it.

[Tyronn Lue]

Nah. Not even Harvey level event.
That's like saying "not even Mike Tyson level fighter"

[GAustex]

Maybe not that severe but it will be a decent flood

That dude is a fool

[djohn2oo8]

That dude is a fool
This shit does not feel like a Cat 1. Feels like a Cat 2.

[GAustex]

Nah. Not even Harvey level event.
Turned on the weather channel this morning
First thing the show is a water rescue
In Houston
Dumbfuck

[baseline bum]

Got none of the rain but all the humidity from fucking Beryl.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Got none of the rain but all the humidity from fucking Beryl.

Humidity is only 32% here.

[Thread]

This shit does not feel like a Cat 1. Feels like a Cat 2.

Bend over. I'll give ya a Category 4.

[lebomb]

Didnt get a single drop of rain from Beryl, but yesterday OMW home from work all hell broke loose. I saw well over an inch of rain at my house. :claw

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Tropics couldn't be more quiet heading into August

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png