Zaccharie Risacher - 2024 NBA Draft Prospect

[scott]

COMPLETELY IGNORING the player that would be taken at #2, and whether you should move up to #2 for him, I think 4 + 35 + a future SRP should be more than enough to move from #4 to #2. I am with Mr. Body that 4+8 is a major major major overpay, especially in a flat draft. 4 + 35 alone may honest be enough to get it done. Considering the Spurs very likely do not want to bring in 3+ rookies this year, that's a move I'd do from a value POV (though I don't necessarily love Risacher).

[DAF86]

COMPLETELY IGNORING the player that would be taken at #2, and whether you should move up to #2 for him, I think 4 + 35 + a future SRP should be more than enough to move from #4 to #2. I am with Mr. Body that 4+8 is a major major major overpay, especially in a flat draft. 4 + 35 alone may honest be enough to get it done. Considering the Spurs very likely do not want to bring in 3+ rookies this year, that's a move I'd do from a value POV (though I don't necessarily love Risacher).

It is not #4 and #8 just for #1, it is #4 and #8 for #1 and #26.

Sure, I would be down with your idea, but if the Wizards say no, I would offer 4 and 8 for 2 and 26, tbh.

[baseline bum]

My logic is that Hawks won't get much worse as long as they don't own their picks.
And what are the odds of them moving into top4 again from 10-15 range?

Can this draft already be over with, it's a completely uncharted territory for us. :lol
Talking about all the potential draftees with worse picks is fun because noone expects them to be franchise altering, but when it's two top10 picks in a draft full of uncertainty, it gets stressful.
One of these picks absolutely must develop into at least a Devin level player.

I'm betting they'll see the grass isn't greener on the other side when they trade Trae and see they have become a deep lottery team.

[LeBowen]

I'm betting they'll see the grass isn't greener on the other side when they trade Trae and see they have become a deep lottery team.

I don't think they trade Trae. Even though he's obviously not good enough to be the man, he's got the reputation and he sells ticket. Really important for a treadmill franchise.
We can hope they fuck up DJ, Capela, maybe even Bogdan trades and get worse. And that whoever they pick with #1 doesn't develop.

[scott]

In my opinion, 4 and 8 for 2 and 26 is still an overpay. Below is a very outdated chart, but I think it still holds *relatively* true.

1009888366605881344

If we went by these values, #2 is worth 3060 pts and 4+35 would be worth 2970, which is why I said maybe one more future SRP to make it work.

4+8 = 4460 pts, and 2+26 = 3900, so this would be an overpay about the value of pick #35.

In this draft, I'd say there the values 1-10 are flatter. There is a 53% drop off in value from #1 to #10 from this value chart, but I'd argue it's a lot less this year, and from 1-5 or even 1-8 it's even flatter (saw in another thread a quote from an "anonymous GM" who said there are 8 guys who could go Top 5).

I made my own pick chart, accounting for the flatter draft and for it being "Weak" at the top.

https://i.postimg.cc/MpdXJLwd/Pick-Chart.png

Using my chart, 4+35 is 3340 pts and #2 is 3350 so it's almost perfect. 4+8 would be 4900 and 2+26 would be 4190, which would be a difference of about the 28th/29th pick.

[exstatic]

I don't think they trade Trae. Even though he's obviously not good enough to be the man, he's got the reputation and he sells ticket. Really important for a treadmill franchise.
We can hope they fuck up DJ, Capela, maybe even Bogdan trades and get worse. And that whoever they pick with #1 doesn't develop.

They’ll have to, eventually. He has an opt out in the summer of 2026, and will be 28 when the 2026-2027 season starts. They’ll want to trade him before the summer of 2025, when he essentially becomes a rental.

[LeBowen]

They’ll have to, eventually. He has an opt out in the summer of 2026, and will be 28 when the 2026-2027 season starts. They’ll want to trade him before the summer of 2025, when he essentially becomes a rental.

What makes you think they won't offer him the bag?
And it's not like other teams will be lining up to pay $300M or whatever to Trae.

[DAF86]

In my opinion, 4 and 8 for 2 and 26 is still an overpay. Below is a very outdated chart, but I think it still holds *relatively* true.

1009888366605881344

If we went by these values, #2 is worth 3060 pts and 4+35 would be worth 2970, which is why I said maybe one more future SRP to make it work.

4+8 = 4460 pts, and 2+26 = 3900, so this would be an overpay about the value of pick #35.

In this draft, I'd say there the values 1-10 are flatter. There is a 53% drop off in value from #1 to #10 from this value chart, but I'd argue it's a lot less this year, and from 1-5 or even 1-8 it's even flatter (saw in another thread a quote from an "anonymous GM" who said there are 8 guys who could go Top 5).

I made my own pick chart, accounting for the flatter draft and for it being "Weak" at the top.

https://i.postimg.cc/MpdXJLwd/Pick-Chart.png

Using my chart, 4+35 is 3340 pts and #2 is 3350 so it's almost perfect. 4+8 would be 4900 and 2+26 would be 4190, which would be a difference of about the 28th/29th pick.

What would the overpay be, roughly 500 pts, so a 35 to 40th pick? I can live with that.

Specially 'cause I think the difference between 1 and 2 and the rest of the top 10 prospects is bigger than you suggest. If the Spurs trade up, it is because they see Risacher (or Sarr) as a much better option than the prospects they can get at 4. Also, in this draft, it is very possible that the 26th pick ends up being better than the 8th pick. Would you be surprised if a guy like Bub Carrington or Zach Edey end up being being better NBA players than guys like Ron Holland, Matas Buzelis or Salaun?

[DAF86]

Of course I would start the negotiations lowballing the Wizards and offering #4 and a 2nd rounder for #2, but if they don't accept, I would be willing to do 4 and 8 for 2 and 26. I'm just stating what my final offer would be. We all agree that #4 and #8 just for #2 is ridiculous.

[scott]

What would the overpay be, roughly 500 pts, so a 35 to 40th pick? I can live with that.

Specially 'cause I think the difference between 1 and 2 and the rest of the top 10 prospects is bigger than you suggest. If the Spurs trade up, it is because they see Risacher (or Sarr) as a much better option than the prospects they can get at 4. Also, in this draft, it is very possible that the 26th pick ends up being better than the 8th pick. Would you be surprised if a guy like Bub Currington or Zach Edey end up being being better NBA players than guys like Ron Holland, Matas Buzelis or Salaun?

It's possible in every draft for the 26th pick ending up better than the 8th pick. In fact, the Spurs are a great example of that having multiple times made the #29 pick (Murray, White, Keldon) better than the #8 pick in those years (Marquese Chriss, Frank Ktilikina, Jaxson Hayes). I agree that the "overpay" is worth it if the team making the overpay feels its worth it based on their own evaluation... but of course sometimes teams make bad trades because their evaluations were wrong. It's all subjective in the end.

The only thing I disagree with (which again, is my own subjective opinion) is that the #1 and #2 picks are worth more than the rest of the top 10... I definitely don't see Risacher and Sarr as significantly better prospects than these other guys. Sarr especially IMO, I don't understand the value on. It seems like he's consistently mocked in the top 2 because that's where he's been mocked all season and there is just inertia there. IMO, he's about an equivalent prospect as Jalen Duren. A nice player, but I'm not taking a rim-running defensive center with a Top 4 pick.

[DAF86]

It's possible in every draft for the 26th pick ending up better than the 8th pick. In fact, the Spurs are a great example of that having multiple times made the #29 pick (Murray, White, Keldon) better than the #8 pick in those years (Marquese Chriss, Frank Ktilikina, Jaxson Hayes). I agree that the "overpay" is worth it if the team making the overpay feels its worth it based on their own evaluation... but of course sometimes teams make bad trades because their evaluations were wrong. It's all subjective in the end.

The only thing I disagree with (which again, is my own subjective opinion) is that the #1 and #2 picks are worth more than the rest of the top 10... I definitely don't see Risacher and Sarr as significantly better prospects than these other guys. Sarr especially IMO, I don't understand the value on. It seems like he's consistently mocked in the top 2 because that's where he's been mocked all season and there is just inertia there. IMO, he's about an equivalent prospect as Jalen Duren. A nice player, but I'm not taking a rim-running defensive center with a Top 4 pick.

I agree with Sarr, I just named him because him and Risacher are the consensus 1 and 2 picks. I do think it is entirely possible that a guy in the top 10 ends up being a much better player than Risacher. In fact, I don't project Risacher as a star at all. I just think he's, by far, the surest thing to become a 35 mpg guy on a championship team. I would take that without thinking it twice in this draft, tbh. That's my reasoning behind wanting to trade up.

[LeBowen]

I agree with Sarr, I just named him because him and Risacher are the consensus 1 and 2 picks. I do think it is entirely possible that a guy in the top 10 ends up being a much better player than Risacher. In fact, I don't project Risacher as a star at all. I just think he's, by far, the surest thing to become a 35 mpg guy on a championship team. I would take that without thinking it twice in this draft, tbh. That's my reasoning behind wanting to trade up.

I don't think trading up in this draft is worth it, but it would finally show some initiative by PATFO.

Risacher won't be a star, but he's got three most important skills in today's league.
Size, defense, 3pt shooting.
The only prospect who's as close as it gets to being a guaranteed positive contributor on both ends of the floor.

Other wings can't shoot.
Guards can either shoot or defend.
Those who could do both, like Carter, are undersized.

Getting Risacher means that three starting positions for the roster that's supposed to start winning are filled.

[exstatic]

What makes you think they won't offer him the bag?
And it's not like other teams will be lining up to pay $300M or whatever to Trae.

They’ve been shopping him like a $2 ho for a year. If he re-signs, it will be with the understanding that he will be traded. The relationship is pretty broken. He may even force his way out this summer.

[Bruno]

To me, Spurs trading up is highly unlikely.

The biggest issue is that, at #3, anyone can be picked because Rockets might trade their pick. A scenario like Hawks or Wizards picking Risacher for Spurs and Spurs picking Clingan for them doesn't work because Clingan can be picked at #3 and be traded to a team by Rockets for a vet.

You can imagine scenarios where a trade up might work like Wizards or Hawks liking Risacher a little more than Clingan. They pick Risacher, keep him if Clingan isn't at #4 or trade him for Clingan + something if Clingan is there at #4. That's a very specific scenario and it would require that the "something" added is significant enough to tilt the balance in favor of Clingan for Wizards/Hawks.

[TD 21]

I agree with Sarr, I just named him because him and Risacher are the consensus 1 and 2 picks. I do think it is entirely possible that a guy in the top 10 ends up being a much better player than Risacher. In fact, I don't project Risacher as a star at all. I just think he's, by far, the surest thing to become a 35 mpg guy on a championship team. I would take that without thinking it twice in this draft, tbh. That's my reasoning behind wanting to trade up.

Exactly. The comp is here is Jaden McDaniels. He doesn't have a deep "bag" and a lot of his individual metrics aren't necessarily great either, but he's capable of playing the exact role you outlined.

In the absence of obvious star power/upside, that's the next best thing and it appears attainable to the Spurs, who should have more impetus to grasp it than anyone else in this range.

I don't care about overpaying (within' reason) to do so either. That's something people are going to have to wrap their head around because it's highly unlikely some miracle trade is going to fall in their lap.

[Ariel]

COMPLETELY IGNORING the player that would be taken at #2, and whether you should move up to #2 for him, I think 4 + 35 + a future SRP should be more than enough to move from #4 to #2. I am with Mr. Body (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=397) that 4+8 is a major major major overpay, especially in a flat draft. 4 + 35 alone may honest be enough to get it done. Considering the Spurs very likely do not want to bring in 3+ rookies this year, that's a move I'd do from a value POV (though I don't necessarily love Risacher).
4+8 for 2 could make sense in a very top heavy class like that of '22, where Banchero and Chet went top 2 and 4 and 8 were Keegan Murray and Dyson Daniels respectively. In this class it's clearly not a reasonable proposal, the most I could see the Spurs paying in that scenario would be a far out, lottery protected pick, and that's only if the FO absolutely LOVES Risacher. Personally, I might offer the Charlotte "first" so that Washington can save face and say they got back a first even when we all know it's really 2 SRPs.

[CGD]

To me, Spurs trading up is highly unlikely.

The biggest issue is that, at #3, anyone can be picked because Rockets might trade their pick. A scenario like Hawks or Wizards picking Risacher for Spurs and Spurs picking Clingan for them doesn't work because Clingan can be picked at #3 and be traded to a team by Rockets for a vet.

You can imagine scenarios where a trade up might work like Wizards or Hawks liking Risacher a little more than Clingan. They pick Risacher, keep him if Clingan isn't at #4 or trade him for Clingan + something if Clingan is there at #4. That's a very specific scenario and it would require that the "something" added is significant enough to tilt the balance in favor of Clingan for Wizards/Hawks.

Houston is the wildcard, but to me the only player that would cause the feeding frenzy this far is Clingan. Like would OKC swap picks and overwhelm HOU with future assets? Risky as a division rival, but they have the ammo. Clearly they want a big and were recently liked to try Knicks’ Hartlesien.

And in that case, Castle is there who WAS may like (just not at 2). Would Spurs give up Castle at 4 AND an asset to get ZR? I don’t know that I would.

[BatManu20]

Trading picks 4 + 8 for 2 + 26 would be terrible in this draft... Just an awful idea tbh. Risacher isn't nearly good enough to warrant that imo. Dude projects as a career role player. Even in a weaker draft, I'd much rather have 4 and 8 than 2 and a late 1st Rounder where there really isn't a single player I'm actually interested in tbh.

[rascal]

Houston is the wildcard, but to me the only player that would cause the feeding frenzy this far is Clingan. Like would OKC swap picks and overwhelm HOU with future assets? Risky as a division rival, but they have the ammo. Clearly they want a big and were recently liked to try Knicks’ Hartlesien.

And in that case, Castle is there who WAS may like (just not at 2). Would Spurs give up Castle at 4 AND an asset to get ZR? I don’t know that I would.

No, rather have Castle. Spurs have to come away with Castle out of this draft.

[TD 21]

:lmao At people still worried about this "star" nonsense instead of realizing that two-way players with size are even more valuable than certain (pseudo) stars and that if they don't get their own, they'll eventually have to pay an arm and a leg to get proper ones anyway.

Or they can keep hoarding every asset like it's going to the grave with them and wasting picks on high bust archetypes like Castle.

[LeBowen]

:lmao At people still worried about this "star" nonsense instead of realizing that two-way players with size are even more valuable than certain (pseudo) stars and that if they don't get their own, they'll eventually have to pay an arm and a leg to get proper ones anyway.

Or they can keep hoarding every asset like it's going to the grave with them and wasting picks on high bust archetypes like Castle.

There's a fine line between undervaluing and overvaluing FRPs.
For example, if Spurs traded 4 FRPs for Markkanen, everyone would lose their shit.
But 4 Spurs FRPs before Wemby were Sochan, Branham, Wesley and Primo.
Even if you expand it to Vassell, Keldon and Samanic, I'm not sure those 7 players are worth as much as Markkanen.

Picking and more importantly developing young players is really fucking hard.
Developing a handful of them at the same time while being an awful team makes it even harder.

Every defender who can has a semblance of consistent 3pt shoot gets paid a lot these days.
We got zero good perimeter defenders and one consistent shooter.
But people would rather take theoretical players that won't offer anything for a couple more years.

[rascal]

COMPLETELY IGNORING the player that would be taken at #2, and whether you should move up to #2 for him, I think 4 + 35 + a future SRP should be more than enough to move from #4 to #2. I am with Mr. Body that 4+8 is a major major major overpay, especially in a flat draft. 4 + 35 alone may honest be enough to get it done. Considering the Spurs very likely do not want to bring in 3+ rookies this year, that's a move I'd do from a value POV (though I don't necessarily love Risacher).

35 is likely a player that won't even stick in the league so that's basically 4 for 2 and a longshot of a player at 35. Bad trade for the team trading away 2. But 4 and 8 is too much for 2.

It would be a trade for the Spurs to move up to get 2. Why would Wash want a player at 35 in this draft?

[scott]

35 is likely a player that won't even stick in the league so that's basically 4 for 2 and a longshot of a player at 35. Bad trade for the team trading away 2. But 4 and 8 is too much for 2.

It would be a trade for the Spurs to move up to get 2. Why would Wash want a player at 35 in this draft?

Plenty of examples have been provided of this happening already.

[scott]

There's a fine line between undervaluing and overvaluing FRPs.
For example, if Spurs traded 4 FRPs for Markkanen, everyone would lose their shit.
But 4 Spurs FRPs before Wemby were Sochan, Branham, Wesley and Primo.
Even if you expand it to Vassell, Keldon and Samanic, I'm not sure those 7 players are worth as much as Markkanen.

Picking and more importantly developing young players is really fucking hard.
Developing a handful of them at the same time while being an awful team makes it even harder.

Every defender who can has a semblance of consistent 3pt shoot gets paid a lot these days.
We got zero good perimeter defenders and one consistent shooter.
But people would rather take theoretical players that won't offer anything for a couple more years.

Really fantastic example. Draft picks are kind of like new cars - and once you drive them off the lot (make the pick), most of them lose value unless its a Porsche 911 GT3RS (Wemby) that will hold its value. Draft picks in almost every sport are overvalued because of the unknown factor that it could end up something more than what you're giving up.

A lot of posters on this board have rightful mentioned that the Spurs recent draft history shouldn't give us a whole lot of confidence in plucking the diamond out of the rough, and maybe we'd be better off moving the picks for a proven quantity. Certainly hard to argue with that!

[Russ]

No way you trade up to get Risacher.

He's Jabari Smith, Brandon Miller -- no bust factor at all. You could do way worse.

But you don't trade up for that.

[TrainOfThought5]

I would kill to have Brandon Miller on this roster starting at PF. Absolutely trade 4+35 for 2 for that.

[MR-Clutch]

No way you trade up to get Risacher.

He's Jabari Smith, Brandon Miller -- no bust factor at all. You could do way worse.

But you don't trade up for that.

I don’t think you watched much of Brandon miller if you think that.

[BatManu20]

Brandon Miller >> Risacher. Get real.

But I agree, I’m not trading up for Risacher either. Especially with so many better wing prospects expected in the lottery next year.

[CGD]

COMPLETELY IGNORING the player that would be taken at #2, and whether you should move up to #2 for him, I think 4 + 35 + a future SRP should be more than enough to move from #4 to #2. I am with Mr. Body that 4+8 is a major major major overpay, especially in a flat draft. 4 + 35 alone may honest be enough to get it done. Considering the Spurs very likely do not want to bring in 3+ rookies this year, that's a move I'd do from a value POV (though I don't necessarily love Risacher).

4+8 for 2 is disgusting, but 4+35, while a slight overpay, is doable.

This exercise only makes sense if they are swinging for Garland with 8. Otherwise I’m not contorting myself to get ZR, at the risk on losing out on Castle at 4.

[objective]

I don't mind including 35 with 4 in a move up because I don't think the Spurs property value picks in the 30s after trading the one last year for 2 weaker seconds.

Better to lose it in a move up than a future move down

[Ariel]

I don’t think you watched much of Brandon miller if you think that.
Not even a 5' clip

[CGD]

I don't mind including 35 with 4 in a move up because I don't think the Spurs property value picks in the 30s after trading the one last year for 2 weaker seconds.

Better to lose it in a move up than a future move down

SRPs seem like tools to keep agents happy tbh.

[Dejounte]

The Spurs finally land their first star and fans want to settle for mediocrity so quickly by going after mid role players. We deserve more years of losing at this rate.

[exstatic]

I don't mind including 35 with 4 in a move up because I don't think the Spurs property value picks in the 30s after trading the one last year for 2 weaker seconds.

Better to lose it in a move up than a future move down

You must have a crystal ball if you know the value of two SRPs in 2026 and 2028.

[DAF86]

The Spurs finally land their first star and fans want to settle for mediocrity so quickly by going after mid role players. We deserve more years of losing at this rate.

I would argue a 6'9"/6'10" ish player that can defend and shoot the three is far from mediocre. In fact, it is the exact type of player you need to have in your roster if you want to win.

You know what type of player isn't a prototype you want to have in your roster if you want to win championships? A Trae Young type, and, I might be wrong, but I think you were a supporter of such a move.

You are going about this whole thing with the complete oposite mindset. It is exactly because we got Wemby that we need to go for more sure prospects in the draft. I would rather secure a 6'9" 3 and D role player than take a swing on a high ceiling, but likely bust prospect. If we didn't had Wemby, I would be fine with going for someone like Holland hoping he pans out, but since we got Wemby, I would rather draft a guy with a higher chance of sticking and being a good fit next to him.

[PhantomDashCam]

With the Spurs confirmed to be working out Risacher and Salaun, I’d assume they bring in Buzelis for one too (if they haven’t already). If they deem Zach is worth trading up for by being significantly better than them both (maybe just safer/better fit?), cool, I’d have to give them the benefit of the doubt.

[Russ]

With the Spurs confirmed to be working out Risacher and Salaun, I’d assume they bring in Buzelis for one too (if they haven’t already). If they deem Zach is worth trading up for by being significantly better than them both (maybe just safer/better fit?), cool, I’d have to give them the benefit of the doubt.

I have no idea of what you just said.

But I dig it!

[rascal]

Plenty of examples have been provided of this happening already.

List them

Draymond Green and Herbert Jones is about it.

Far more misses at 35

[Ariel]

You must have a crystal ball if you know the value of two SRPs in 2026 and 2028.
Spurs traded the 33rd pick for Utah's '26 SRP and Minnesota's '28 SRP, so yeah, I'd say it's a pretty safe bet those picks will be significantly worse, no crystal ball required.

[exstatic]

Spurs traded the 33rd pick for Utah's '26 SRP and Minnesota's '28 SRP, so yeah, I'd say it's a pretty safe bet those picks will be significantly worse, no crystal ball required.

One of those picks was five years away when the trade was made, the other three years, so you don’t know shit about what they will be. You might as well spin yourself around blindfolded,and try to throw a dart at a dart board.

[Ariel]

One of those picks was five years away when the trade was made, the other three years, so you don’t know shit about what they will be. You might as well spin yourself around blindfolded,and try to throw a dart at a dart board.
Sure, but I know of 30 possible landing places, 2 are better and 27 are worse. Last I checked, 2 < 27

[TD 21]

Basing decisions on the '24 draft on the '25 one is fools gold, especially with an overly conservative, rigid organization like this.

Bird in the hand.


The Spurs finally land their first star and fans want to settle for mediocrity so quickly by going after mid role players. We deserve more years of losing at this rate.

My thoughts exactly. Avoid Castle at all costs . . . I knew you'd see it my way.

[rankingtear]

Can't get a big wing like this anywhere but the draft. Teams hold unto this guys regardless of their lifecycle. A lot hold on to 2 or more of these. They are frictionless ceiling raisers. 4 and 8 is steep but this is the a puzzle piece you can't get at any point after the draft.

[Mr. Body]

Most three and D only guys go later in the draft. What are you talking about?

The problem here is that he doesn't do anything beside those two things and that he's questionable on both.

A lot of support in picking him doesn't even have to do with him as a player, it's him as a template, which is a major problem.

You shouldn't be drafting templates, you should be drafting the player. But no one's actually supporting or defending him as a player. He's just what they think the team needs in terms of a player archetype. That's kind of a yikes from me.

[rankingtear]

Most three and D only guys go later in the draft. What are you talking about?

The problem here is that he doesn't do anything beside those two things and that he's questionable on both.

A lot of support in picking him doesn't even have to do with him as a player, it's him as a template, which is a major problem.

You shouldn't be drafting templates, you should be drafting the player. But no one's actually supporting or defending him as a player. He's just what they think the team needs in terms of a player archetype. That's kind of a yikes from me.

There is barely any 3 and D big wings in the league. Is there one in 2023?

[MannyIsGod]

The Spurs finally land their first star and fans want to settle for mediocrity so quickly by going after mid role players. We deserve more years of losing at this rate.

Yes why aren't Spurs fans manifesting a star out of thin air in this draft? Shame on them!


Such a weird comment.

[LeBowen]

There is barely any 3 and D big wings in the league. Is there one in 2023?

Exactly. I don't think players who can hit a three when left wide open in the corner should classify as 3-D.
McDaniels getting $130M from Minnesota says a lot. There aren't many 3-D wings who can hit threes on high volume.

Anunoby is probably the best 3-D guy that doesn't do much else and he'll get close to $40M a year from the Knicks.
And I'd argue that he's worth it when healthy.

[Dejounte]

Yes why aren't Spurs fans manifesting a star out of thin air in this draft? Shame on them!


Such a weird comment.

Not even close to how my comment should be interpreted.

[MannyIsGod]

Not even close to how my comment should be interpreted.

Then maybe you should stop posting like a teenage girl on Instagram and actually say what you mean?

[Dejounte]

Exactly. I don't think players who can hit a three when left wide open in the corner should classify as 3-D.
McDaniels getting $130M from Minnesota says a lot. There aren't many 3-D wings who can hit threes on high volume.

Anunoby is probably the best 3-D guy that doesn't do much else and he'll get close to $40M a year from the Knicks.
And I'd argue that he's worth it when healthy.

You know maybe looking at these overpaid 3 and D players in the league and the team they’re on and how they’re not that successful should tell you something. Minnesota isn’t where they are because of Jaden. It’s because they have three “psuedo stars” (as TD 21 likes to say) carry them. Anunoby doesn’t even raise their ceiling and is probably a reason why it will never be raised because they’re locked on to him. You’re making correlations here and failing to look at the results. Saying “look at these highly paid players! This is a good reason to invest a top 5 pick on one!” is far too simplistic.

[Dejounte]

Then maybe you should stop posting like a teenage girl on Instagram and actually say what you mean?

I’ve said my case ad nauseum. Maybe I should create a thread just to link it to anyone who asks like TD 21. Totally serious and not bashing you TD.

[LeBowen]

You know maybe looking at these overpaid 3 and D players in the league and the team they’re on and how they’re not that successful should tell you something. Minnesota isn’t where they are because of Jaden. It’s because they have three “psuedo stars” (as TD 21 likes to say) carry them.

First off, you completely missed my point and then went all out agressive, digging yourself deeper.
I mentioned McDaniels' new contract because I think he's nothing special and got overpaid.
But that just shows how valuable 3-D players are in today's league.
He's obviously just a role player, but his and NAW's defense were massive for Minnesota and one of the reasons why they got to WCF.


Anunoby doesn’t even raise their ceiling and is probably a reason why it will never be raised because they’re locked on to him.

Anunoby doesn't raise their ceiling?
Knicks were 20-3 with Anunoby this season.
Without him? 30-29.
Eliminated Sixers in the first round.
Went 2-0 up in second and then lost 4 out of 5 after he went down.
I'm sure you'll try to strawman that one into a coincidence.

If he's worth $40M a year is a valid question, but he's surely worth $30M.
He's the closest thing to 2014 nephew in the league right now. Injury issues included.


You’re making correlations here and failing to look at the results. Saying “look at these highly paid players! This is a good reason to invest a top 5 pick on one!” is far too simplistic.

Again, you completely missed the point and picked a very strange hill to die on.

Basketball is a simple game.
Not counting Luka, Mavs are 5-32 from 3pt in these two games. Both were very winnable.
Through the entire playoffs DJJ and Washington were praised for their 3-D game.
They defended well and hit important shots on the other end.
Their shot stops falling and they're 0-2 down.
If they don't start hitting shots again, they're going to get swept.


Would Risacher at #4 be worth it if he's another Jaden McDaniels? No.
Would Risacher at #4 be worth it if he's another OG Anunoby? Hell yes.
Very few drafts have 4 better players than OG Anunoby and this class is one of the weakest in a very long time.
There's not a single other player with good defense and reliable shot in it.
And the couple of players with star potential and a lot of red flags will probably be available at #8 to take an upside swing.

If there were legit star potential players in this awful draft, I'd be all for it.
But picking Buzelis or whichever other theoretical player is just not it.
It's going to come down to Sheppard, Castle or Risacher at #4, which I don't mind.
But I most definitely do want Dillingham over for example Knecht at #8.

[Dejounte]

Look, man

I’m going to make a quick reply because I’m about to start my day and then likely a better one later (as best I can through my phone… i cant do all the fancy quoting youre doing)

first, I wasnt at all trying to be aggressive. The words I put out, when i re-read it, have no aggression in my mind

second, please understand the difference between floor raiser and ceiling raiser because I think that is lost in your post

[LeBowen]

second, please understand the difference between floor raiser and ceiling raiser because I think that is lost in your post

What makes you think I don't understand it?
My entire argument is that I'd take Risacher if he's available at #4 because there are no actual floor raisers in this draft other than Sheppard/Risacher if their skillset instantly translates to the NBA.
Ignite wings would be useless in the first couple of seasons even if they had star potential, Castle is another ceiling raiser if he doesn't develop his shot.

More importantly, my preference is to make Markkanen trade happen if there's a chance for it.
He'd be our both floor and ceiling raiser.

[DAF86]

Look, man

I’m going to make a quick reply because I’m about to start my day and then likely a better one later (as best I can through my phone… i cant do all the fancy quoting youre doing)

first, I wasnt at all trying to be aggressive. The words I put out, when i re-read it, have no aggression in my mind

second, please understand the difference between floor raiser and ceiling raiser because I think that is lost in your post

We already got our ceiling raiser in Wemby, we need to start surround him with some floor raisers so that we can stop sucking.

[rankingtear]

We already got our ceiling raiser in Wemby, we need to start surround him with some floor raisers so that we can stop sucking.

Wemby is the engine he is the floor raiser. Ceiling raisers are high end role players.

[DAF86]

Wemby is the engine he is the floor raiser. Ceiling raisers are high end role players.

That's a strange way to look at it. I see superstars as the pieces that make you championship contenders, hence "ceiling raisers".

If you have a team full of good role players, you won't be a bad team, but you will never win it all. Hence "floor raisers".

I guess one could see it as: "we already have a superstar, if we add some good role players we can win it all", so I guess it can work both ways, but I think the Superstar being the "ceiling raiser" makes more sense. DeRozan raises the floor, Wemby raises the ceiling.

[LeBowen]

That's a strange way to look at it. I see superstars as the pieces that make you championship contenders, hence "ceiling raisers".

If you have a team full of good role players, you won't be a bad team, but you will never win it all. Hence "floor raisers".

I guess one could see it as: "we already have a superstar, if we add some good role players we can win it all", so I guess it can work both ways, but I think the Superstar being the "ceiling raiser" makes more sense. DeRozan raises the floor, Wemby raises the ceiling.

True superstars raise both floor and ceiling.
As in they're capable of carrying shit rosters to the playoffs, even winning a series here and there.

Solid all-stars and fake superstars like Harden are floor raisers.
They're capable of carrying shit rosters, looking good on legit rosters, but when they need to raise the ceiling and win you a playoff series, they disappear.

Role players are ceiling raisers.
Clutch role players are ceiling raisers in the playoffs.

[Kevin]

Dusty Garza is on Twitter saying the Spurs are targeting Zacc in a trade up with the Hawks and later on hints that Trae Young might be included in a mega deal.

It would probably looks like this:

Spurs get:
Trae Young
1st pick

Hawks get:
Keldon Johnson
Zollins
4th pick
8th pick
full refund on the DJM picks.

Spurs staring lineup:

Trea
Dev
Zacc
Sochan
Wemby

[dubross]

I wouldn’t do that trade if I’m the spurs

[ChumpDumper]

Dusty Garza is on Twitter saying the Spurs are targeting Zacc in a trade up with the Hawks and later on hints that Trae Young might be included in a mega deal.

It would probably looks like this:

Spurs get:
Trae Young
1st pick

Hawks get:
Keldon Johnson
Zollins
4th pick
8th pick
full refund on the DJM picks.

Spurs staring lineup:

Trea
Dev
Zacc
Sochan
Wemby

That trade looks...not great....

And if someone is tweeting a thing, just post the tweet.

[z0sa]

Dusty Garza is on Twitter saying the Spurs are targeting Zacc in a trade up with the Hawks and later on hints that Trae Young might be included in a mega deal.

It would probably looks like this:

Spurs get:
Trae Young
1st pick

Hawks get:
Keldon Johnson
Zollins
4th pick
8th pick
full refund on the DJM picks.

Spurs staring lineup:

Trea
Dev
Zacc
Sochan
Wemby

Waaaaaaaaaay too big of a package for Trae Young. I want him, but not at that absurd cost.

[itzsoweezee]

Dusty Garza is on Twitter saying the Spurs are targeting Zacc in a trade up with the Hawks and later on hints that Trae Young might be included in a mega deal.

It would probably looks like this:

Spurs get:
Trae Young
1st pick

Hawks get:
Keldon Johnson
Zollins
4th pick
8th pick
full refund on the DJM picks.

Spurs staring lineup:

Trea
Dev
Zacc
Sochan
Wemby

Yuck. What a horrible trade. That can’t be real

[SpursFan86]

1800879942000906677

This reeks of BS tbh :lol Think dude is just looking for clicks.

[BatManu20]

Fuck no. Spurs would be getting bent over in that trade.

Furthermore, Spurs don’t leak shit like this so you know it’s bullshit.

[exstatic]

Dusty Garza is on Twitter saying the Spurs are targeting Zacc in a trade up with the Hawks and later on hints that Trae Young might be included in a mega deal.

It would probably looks like this:

Spurs get:
Trae Young
1st pick

Hawks get:
Keldon Johnson
Zollins
4th pick
8th pick
full refund on the DJM picks.

Spurs staring lineup:

Trea
Dev
Zacc
Sochan
Wemby

Crusty Schmarza. Yeah, let me go put some money down on that.

Not sure ho long you’ve been here, but this place was founded to get away from him.

[SpursDynasty85]

Dusty Garza is on Twitter saying the Spurs are targeting Zacc in a trade up with the Hawks and later on hints that Trae Young might be included in a mega deal.

It would probably looks like this:

Spurs get:
Trae Young
1st pick

Hawks get:
Keldon Johnson
Zollins
4th pick
8th pick
full refund on the DJM picks.

Spurs staring lineup:

Trea
Dev
Zacc
Sochan
Wemby. There is a reason Spurs haven't showed interest in Trae Young. Trae Young costs too much for Spurs to do that. They value their money and flexibility.

[Joseph Kony]

Dusty Garza is on Twitter saying the Spurs are targeting Zacc in a trade up with the Hawks and later on hints that Trae Young might be included in a mega deal.

It would probably looks like this:

Spurs get:
Trae Young
1st pick

Hawks get:
Keldon Johnson
Zollins
4th pick
8th pick
full refund on the DJM picks.

Spurs staring lineup:

Trea
Dev
Zacc
Sochan
Wemby
https://i.ibb.co/PmNPwrk/full.gif

[DPG21920]

That trade looks...not great....

And if someone is tweeting a thing, just post the tweet.

Agree and aside fro that, I would rather have picks 4 and 8 than 1 tbh….

[DPG21920]

I dont really want him period, but I would only do something like:

Spurs Get: Trae + Pick 1

ATL Gets: Collins + Keldon + 3 ATL picks back

Spurs get pick 1 and keep 4 and 8 too.

[td4mvp2k]

Waaaaaaaaaay too big of a package for Trae Young. I want him, but not at that absurd cost.
spurs shouldnt include all the hawks picks back since their in a corner with him on the roster... other then that no problem with the deal.

[scott]

I dont really want him period, but I would only do something like:

Spurs Get: Trae + Pick 1

ATL Gets: Collins + Keldon + 3 ATL picks back

Spurs get pick 1 and keep 4 and 8 too.

I was gonna say, this seems like a super over pay. If the Spurs really wanted to do this, then I would leave #4 out of it... but even then, I'm not interested for the Spurs (and I'm not a Trae hater by any means. I actually like him as a player - just like all of those ATL picks better).

[scott]

Also, lol Dusty Garza. Haven't heard that pathetic name in a long time.

[z0sa]

spurs shouldnt include all the hawks picks back since their in a corner with him on the roster... other then that no problem with the deal.

Exactly. If we're giving them their picks back, we're enabling them to actually tank with a purpose and rebuild likewise. That's going to cost you Trae Young with the usual salary filler on both sides. Giving them our picks as well is raw on our side.

[Seventyniner]

I was gonna say, this seems like a super over pay. If the Spurs really wanted to do this, then I would leave #4 out of it... but even then, I'm not interested for the Spurs (and I'm not a Trae hater by any means. I actually like him as a player - just like all of those ATL picks better).

That's only one net first outgoing plus salary ballast for Trae; ATL 2026 is only a swap. Plus the incoming first is the #1 pick, albeit in a draft without a clear-cut best player.

What are the chances that ATL 2025/2026/2027 net you more than Trae and 2024 #1 overall? I think it's actually rather low. Most years there are 4-5 teams that suck all year and another 3 or so that tank down the stretch. I expect the next two season to have even more teams tanking given the quality at the top of the draft.

If the Hawks have no incentive to tank they should be able to stay out of the bottom 8 teams each year, meaning the Spurs would have at most a 20% chance at a top 4 pick each time. That's about a 50% chance at a top 4 pick once, when the alternative is an All-Star PG and this year's #1 overall.

I'm not saying it's a total no-brainer for the Spurs, though I think the Hawks hang up the phone because getting one net first for Trae is a really bad look.

[duncan2150]

The more i think of it the less i think the spurs will trade with the hawks, for example you can't reinforce them with two top ten picks for a risacher. I also don't see a deal where we send back those atlanta picks even for a young.

[DAF86]

That's only one net first outgoing plus salary ballast for Trae; ATL 2026 is only a swap. Plus the incoming first is the #1 pick, albeit in a draft without a clear-cut best player.

What are the chances that ATL 2025/2026/2027 net you more than Trae and 2024 #1 overall? I think it's actually rather low. Most years there are 4-5 teams that suck all year and another 3 or so that tank down the stretch. I expect the next two season to have even more teams tanking given the quality at the top of the draft.

If the Hawks have no incentive to tank they should be able to stay out of the bottom 8 teams each year, meaning the Spurs would have at most a 20% chance at a top 4 pick each time. That's about a 50% chance at a top 4 pick once, when the alternative is an All-Star PG and this year's #1 overall.

I'm not saying it's a total no-brainer for the Spurs, though I think the Hawks hang up the phone because getting one net first for Trae is a really bad look.

That sounds a lot better than it really is, tbh. The all-star PG is, arguably, the most flawed star player in the league. One that I don't ever see becoming part of a championship core. And the #1 pick in this year's draft has a Nic Batum type ceiling.

[Kevin]

I dont really want him period, but I would only do something like:

Spurs Get: Trae + Pick 1

ATL Gets: Collins + Keldon + 3 ATL picks back

Spurs get pick 1 and keep 4 and 8 too.

Zollins is a bad contract and carries negative value. Keldon's value is pretty close to neutral as a bench chucker with little defense getting 20M per season. So Atlanta getting all their picks back for Trae is pretty fair.

I agree tho on trading the the 4 and 8 for the 1. Overpay in such a flat draft. I'd do the 4 and the Bulls pick to move up to 1 and keep the 8. If DMR bolts Chicago this summer that pick never conveys.

[LeBowen]

Zollins is a bad contract and carries negative value. Keldon's value is pretty close to neutral as a bench chucker with little defense getting 20M per season. So Atlanta getting all their picks back for Trae is pretty fair.

I agree tho on trading the the 4 and 8 for the 1. Overpay in such a flat draft. I'd do the 4 and the Bulls pick to move up to 1 and keep the 8. If DMR bolts Chicago this summer that pick never conveys.

#1 for #4 and #8 is a non-starter.
There are only two ways I'd deal with the Hawks if their Clingan interest is actually real.

Either the usual trade, something like #1 for #4, #35 and Charlotte '25.

Or a deal where we get DJ.
Hawks need to get rid of Capela to get under the cap. Drafting Clingan makes him obslote.
Spurs can absorb his expiring and he'd be decent enough backup for a year. (We'd get rid of Collins in another trade).

#1, DJ, Capela for #4, #8 Keldon, Tre.

Hawks would improve from #1 to #4 and #8 which are more valuable while getting the player they want.
They'd also shed around $20M in salary to get under the cap.
But they'd downgrade DJ for a solid backup PG and a rotation wing.

This trade looks fair if Spurs weren't in ownership of all the Hawks picks.
Meaning it won't happen because it's too embarrassing for them.
I'd maybe be willing to include the return of '26 swap instead of #8 this year, but '25 and '27 picks should be off limits unless we're trading for a proven star player.

[Kevin]

#1 for #4 and #8 is a non-starter.
There are only two ways I'd deal with the Hawks if their Clingan interest is actually real.

Either the usual trade, something like #1 for #4, #35 and Charlotte '25.

Or a deal where we get DJ.
Hawks need to get rid of Capela to get under the cap. Drafting Clingan makes him obslote.
Spurs can absorb his expiring and he'd be decent enough backup for a year. (We'd get rid of Collins in another trade).

#1, DJ, Capela for #4, #8 Keldon, Tre.

Hawks would improve from #1 to #4 and #8 which are more valuable while getting the player they want.
They'd also shed around $20M in salary to get under the cap.
But they'd downgrade DJ for a solid backup PG and a rotation wing.

This trade looks fair if Spurs weren't in ownership of all the Hawks picks.
Meaning it won't happen because it's too embarrassing for them.
I'd maybe be willing to include the return of '26 swap instead of #8 this year, but '25 and '27 picks should be off limits unless we're trading for a proven star player.

That's a yuck trade for the Spurs. Capela is bad fit next to Wemby on offense and DJM isnt a true star level player. Hawks could only get 1 unprotected first for him at the deadline according to reports.

[DPG21920]

That's a yuck trade for the Spurs. Capela is bad fit next to Wemby on offense and DJM isnt a true star level player. Hawks could only get 1 unprotected first for him at the deadline according to reports.

My guess is Spurs would use Capela to trade elsewhere…there would likely be a third team in a deal like this where Clint goes somewhere and an asset goes to SA for Capela.

[LeBowen]

That's a yuck trade for the Spurs. Capela is bad fit next to Wemby on offense and DJM isnt a true star level player. Hawks could only get 1 unprotected first for him at the deadline according to reports.

What makes you think Capela would start?
He'd be an overpaid backup on an expiring contract. Washed, but still better than Collins.
Collins we'd get rid of in another deal.

DJ doesn't need to be a true star level player and he's not paid as one.
His contract is almost the same as Devin's. Perfect for two of them to be the 3rd/4th option while Spurs look for a legit second option.

I can't emphasize enough how valuable DJ's contract is in current market.
Borderline all-star point guard with size that's about to turn 28 making just $25M? One of the biggest bargains in the league.

[Knoxxx]

What makes you think Capela would start?
He'd be an overpaid backup on an expiring contract. Washed, but still better than Collins.
Collins we'd get rid of in another deal.

DJ doesn't need to be a true star level player and he's not paid as one.
His contract is almost the same as Devin's. Perfect for two of them to be the 3rd/4th option while Spurs look for a legit second option.

I can't emphasize enough how valuable DJ's contract is in current market.
Borderline all-star point guard with size that's about to turn 28 making just $25M? One of the biggest bargains in the league.

Si

[scott]

That's only one net first outgoing plus salary ballast for Trae; ATL 2026 is only a swap. Plus the incoming first is the #1 pick, albeit in a draft without a clear-cut best player.

What are the chances that ATL 2025/2026/2027 net you more than Trae and 2024 #1 overall? I think it's actually rather low. Most years there are 4-5 teams that suck all year and another 3 or so that tank down the stretch. I expect the next two season to have even more teams tanking given the quality at the top of the draft.

If the Hawks have no incentive to tank they should be able to stay out of the bottom 8 teams each year, meaning the Spurs would have at most a 20% chance at a top 4 pick each time. That's about a 50% chance at a top 4 pick once, when the alternative is an All-Star PG and this year's #1 overall.

I'm not saying it's a total no-brainer for the Spurs, though I think the Hawks hang up the phone because getting one net first for Trae is a really bad look.

On the net, my proposal would be two firsts and a swap on the net for Trae. The original proposal is three firsts and a swap net. I like Trae, but I don't think he's worth it.

[Mr. Body]

https://dizzledynasty.substack.com/p/zaccharie-risacher-tidjane-salaun

Good breakdowns of the French players. Especially why Risacher is a dull pile of meh. No way should he be ranked this high, an accident of fate vastly in his favor. I dread that we'll wind up with him, but whatever. Hope it works out.

[Seventyniner]

On the net, my proposal would be two firsts and a swap on the net for Trae. The original proposal is three firsts and a swap net. I like Trae, but I don't think he's worth it.

Is one of those two firsts the Charlotte 2025 pick?

[scott]

Is one of those two firsts the Charlotte 2025 pick?

My suggestions:

Hawks Get:

#8
ATL25
ATL27
26 Swap removed
Some Players

Spurs Get:

#1
Trae

So, Atlanta nets 2 picks, a swap, and whatever players are included

Could switch out 8 for 4, but I wouldn't send both.

[rascal]

My suggestions:

Hawks Get:

#8
ATL25
ATL27
26 Swap removed
Some Players

Spurs Get:

#1
Trae

So, Atlanta nets 2 picks, a swap, and whatever players are included

Could switch out 8 for 4, but I wouldn't send both.

No be patient

Things are going to work out for the spurs with all those Atlanta picks. They'll get a player better than Young from all those picks.

[scott]

No be patient

Things are going to work out for the spurs with all those Atlanta picks. They'll get a player better than Young from all those picks.

I already said this is not a trade I would do, just what I think fair value is.

[exstatic]

That's only one net first outgoing plus salary ballast for Trae; ATL 2026 is only a swap. Plus the incoming first is the #1 pick, albeit in a draft without a clear-cut best player.

What are the chances that ATL 2025/2026/2027 net you more than Trae and 2024 #1 overall? I think it's actually rather low. Most years there are 4-5 teams that suck all year and another 3 or so that tank down the stretch. I expect the next two season to have even more teams tanking given the quality at the top of the draft.

If the Hawks have no incentive to tank they should be able to stay out of the bottom 8 teams each year, meaning the Spurs would have at most a 20% chance at a top 4 pick each time. That's about a 50% chance at a top 4 pick once, when the alternative is an All-Star PG and this year's #1 overall.

I'm not saying it's a total no-brainer for the Spurs, though I think the Hawks hang up the phone because getting one net first for Trae is a really bad look.

Hawks gobble up that trade like a fat kid eats Twix.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Getting their own picks back is waaaaaay more valuable to the Hawks than normal FRPs. If they get their bag back then no additional picks:

Hawks get: Atl 25, Atl 27, cancel 26 swap, Char 25, Collins, Tre, filler
Spurs get: Trae, Atl 24

Atlanta is the desperate team here, not the Spurs. That opens up so much flexibility for them it is unreal.

[CGD]

^ just no. This is all ATL driven bc they really don’t want to pick 1 in this draft and bc they have a PG problems

[JPB]

All these sources or "intel" you can find in any shape and form nowadays are baseless, self fed speculations from people repeating, rehashing and mixing what others are repeating, rehashing and mixing frm what they've read or heard around.

And truth to be told, which is a testament to this forum, feels like all these guys (starting by good old Dusty Garza) are reading ST where you can find these trades ideas, projection and reflexion even before it starts to spread all over the Interwebs and media, all the way up to France and the Eric Zhangs of the world.

Be proud, ST people. We are influencers :lol

[CGD]

Getting their own picks back is waaaaaay more valuable to the Hawks than normal FRPs. If they get their bag back then no additional picks:

Hawks get: Atl 25, Atl 27, cancel 26 swap, Char 25, Collins, Tre, filler
Spurs get: Trae, Atl 24

Atlanta is the desperate team here, not the Spurs. That opens up so much flexibility for them it is unreal.

I am not touching ANY hawks pick we own until they show their hands in term of what direction they’re taking. They could well be rebuilding next year guys. Why the hell would you give up those picks?

[Mr. Body]

Trading 4 + 8 is just devastating alone. Doing it for Zaccharie Risacher is unfathomable.

Just bring on the draft. I hate the era of irritating, baseless rumors.

[buttsR4rebounding]

I am not touching ANY hawks pick we own until they show their hands in term of what direction they’re taking. They could well be rebuilding next year guys. Why the hell would you give up those picks?

They are not going into a full rebuild with the requisite tank job without their picks. Their picks are incredibly valuable to them right now since the DJM trade did not produce the desired results. The perceived value of those picks right now is way higher than the likely actual value. Just like trading DJM after his all star year got back premium value trading the picks now gets back premium value again. Just look at this forum. You mention Atlanta 25 and everyone gets a woody. That is a sure sign that people are overvaluing the picks. I've made a shitload of money over the years doing that same thing in the stock and options markets. John Rockefeller once said he got rich by accomodating people. When everyone wants to buy I sell to them. When everyone wants to sell I buy from them. Now is the time to cash in on perceived value.

[Mr. Body]

Trade Atlanta picks because stock market?

[Twisted_Dawg]

Also, lol Dusty Garza. Haven't heard that pathetic name in a long time.

If you've been around for awhile, then you may have been one of the many people banned by Garza on his message board for simply voicing an honest dissent. His forum was an early rival to SpursTalk 20 years ago. Not even sure it's still around. Now he's mastered the art of click bait journalism.

[exstatic]

They are not going into a full rebuild with the requisite tank job without their picks. Their picks are incredibly valuable to them right now since the DJM trade did not produce the desired results. The perceived value of those picks right now is way higher than the likely actual value. Just like trading DJM after his all star year got back premium value trading the picks now gets back premium value again. Just look at this forum. You mention Atlanta 25 and everyone gets a woody. That is a sure sign that people are overvaluing the picks. I've made a shitload of money over the years doing that same thing in the stock and options markets. John Rockefeller once said he got rich by accomodating people. When everyone wants to buy I sell to them. When everyone wants to sell I buy from them. Now is the time to cash in on perceived value.

Atlanta is drowning. They can’t improve without tearing it down, which means they’ll finish like 8-12. What’s lost in the discussion is that’s still a pretty decent pick each year, even if they don’t jump into the top 4. I’m not completely out on the trade, but I’m skeptical, and I think this year is the wrong time to do it.

There was a buzz around the league and the blogosphere this season after the ASB. In brief, it seemed like they made a correction to officiating to allow more defense. Normally,the league releases guidance on this,but they said nothing, leading many to think it was a trial period, leading to a full rollout next season. The gist of it is, they’re not allowing foul hunting to the degree they have in the past. If that’s the case, Trae becomes much less valuable, because he becomes even less efficient with fewer FTs. That’s why I would wait. If someone like the Lakers jumps in and grabs him, good for us. Those three picks will climb, because the only near term pick the Lakers have is this year, at #17, which won’t help Atlanta. Their other two picks are after our 25-27 ATL pick window.

[CGD]

They are not going into a full rebuild with the requisite tank job without their picks. Their picks are incredibly valuable to them right now since the DJM trade did not produce the desired results. The perceived value of those picks right now is way higher than the likely actual value. Just like trading DJM after his all star year got back premium value trading the picks now gets back premium value again. Just look at this forum. You mention Atlanta 25 and everyone gets a woody. That is a sure sign that people are overvaluing the picks. I've made a shitload of money over the years doing that same thing in the stock and options markets. John Rockefeller once said he got rich by accomodating people. When everyone wants to buy I sell to them. When everyone wants to sell I buy from them. Now is the time to cash in on perceived value.

Ok bro

[buttsR4rebounding]

Atlanta is drowning. They can’t improve without tearing it down, which means they’ll finish like 8-12. What’s lost in the discussion is that’s still a pretty decent pick each year, even if they don’t jump into the top 4. I’m not completely out on the trade, but I’m skeptical, and I think this year is the wrong time to do it.

There was a buzz around the league and the blogosphere this season after the ASB. In brief, it seemed like they made a correction to officiating to allow more defense. Normally,the league releases guidance on this,but they said nothing, leading many to think it was a trial period, leading to a full rollout next season. The gist of it is, they’re not allowing foul hunting to the degree they have in the past. If that’s the case, Trae becomes much less valuable, because he becomes even less efficient with fewer FTs. That’s why I would wait. If someone like the Lakers jumps in and grabs him, good for us. Those three picks will climb, because the only near term pick the Lakers have is this year, at #17, which won’t help Atlanta. Their other two picks are after our 25-27 ATL pick window.

I'd have no issue waiting for the trade deadline, but that would eliminate getting the #1 pick. Unless they draft him.

[Seventyniner]

My suggestions:

Hawks Get:

#8
ATL25
ATL27
26 Swap removed
Some Players

Spurs Get:

#1
Trae

So, Atlanta nets 2 picks, a swap, and whatever players are included

Could switch out 8 for 4, but I wouldn't send both.

Oh, your trade involves #8 going out. DPG's version had the Spurs keeping #8.

[Ariel]

They are not going into a full rebuild with the requisite tank job without their picks. Their picks are incredibly valuable to them right now since the DJM trade did not produce the desired results. The perceived value of those picks right now is way higher than the likely actual value. Just like trading DJM after his all star year got back premium value trading the picks now gets back premium value again. Just look at this forum. You mention Atlanta 25 and everyone gets a woody. That is a sure sign that people are overvaluing the picks. I've made a shitload of money over the years doing that same thing in the stock and options markets. John Rockefeller once said he got rich by accomodating people. When everyone wants to buy I sell to them. When everyone wants to sell I buy from them. Now is the time to cash in on perceived value.
On paper it makes sense, Atlanta's picks are more valuable in their hands than they are in the Spurs' because they'd have incentive to maximize their value (i.e., tank), and we could trade them back and split the difference. However, I don't love their assets, and they're incompetent enough that they may still give up high picks even if they don't intend to do so, kind of like Brooklyn's picks. I guess it depends on how desperate they are, if they don't want to recongnize that fact and pay the price, then I'd take my chances with the picks, but if they REALLY want those picks back then I'm sure you can find a way, maybe even re routing their assets (players) to a third team for value.

[Pauleta14]

Getting their own picks back is waaaaaay more valuable to the Hawks than normal FRPs. If they get their bag back then no additional picks:

Hawks get: Atl 25, Atl 27, cancel 26 swap, Char 25, Collins, Tre, filler
Spurs get: Trae, Atl 24

Atlanta is the desperate team here, not the Spurs. That opens up so much flexibility for them it is unreal.

If ATL is desperate, why are you being so generous?

[Bruno]

The whole "he is working out with Spurs because there are talks about Spurs trading up" thing is incredibility stupid. Risacher isn't at all a lock to be drafted top2 and Spurs at #4 would be a great draft outcome for him. I'm quite sure that he would rather be drafted at #4 by Spurs than at #2 by Wizards.

What lies behind all theses rumors is that Hawks don't have an obvious choice with their first pick. Sarr might be too much a project for a team that is trying to win now. Risacher won't really improve their roster given that they already have De'Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Clingan is the player who will help them the most in the next couple of years but they might think he will be there at #3 or #4 with the lower salary associated...

[Uriel]

The whole "he is working out with Spurs because there are talks about Spurs trading up" thing is incredibility stupid. Risacher isn't at all a lock to be drafted top2 and Spurs at #4 would be a great draft outcome for him. I'm quite sure that he would rather be drafted at #4 by Spurs than at #2 by Wizards.

What lies behind all theses rumors is that Hawks don't have an obvious choice with their first pick. Sarr might be too much a project for a team that is trying to win now. Risacher won't really improve their roster given that they already have De'Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Clingan is the player who will help them the most in the next couple of years but they might think he will be there at #3 or #4 with the lower salary associated...
In that case, we should offer to swap the #4 pick and a second round pick or a heavily protected future first round pick in exchange for the #1 pick. And if they say no, then just wager that they pick Clingan anyway and hope Zaccharie falls into our laps.

[DPG21920]

The whole "he is working out with Spurs because there are talks about Spurs trading up" thing is incredibility stupid. Risacher isn't at all a lock to be drafted top2 and Spurs at #4 would be a great draft outcome for him. I'm quite sure that he would rather be drafted at #4 by Spurs than at #2 by Wizards.

What lies behind all theses rumors is that Hawks don't have an obvious choice with their first pick. Sarr might be too much a project for a team that is trying to win now. Risacher won't really improve their roster given that they already have De'Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Clingan is the player who will help them the most in the next couple of years but they might think he will be there at #3 or #4 with the lower salary associated...

I just laugh at how so many think mock draft rankings are exactly what teams go off of and that nothing else matters. Value is relative especially in a draft like this. And it’s doubly funny to think ATL would “love” Clingan at 4 but cant stomach taking him at 1?

No, if Clingan in their guy, while they may like to extract extra value, they are going to draft him without hesitation at 1. Theres zero scenario where they say “well we love Clingan the most but you know its just not worth it at one like it is at 4”

[scott]

I can't wait for draft day to get here already since we've been doing this exercise since November :lol

Hope draft day is complete chaos with a zillion unexpected trades tbh

[Bruno]

In that case, we should offer to swap the #4 pick and a second round pick or a heavily protected future first round pick in exchange for the #1 pick. And if they say no, then just wager that they pick Clingan anyway and hope Zaccharie falls into our laps.

It also depends on how Spurs like Risacher compared to other prospect. If they like Castle nearly as much, there is a good chance that at least one of them will be available at #4. Spurs can also trade up with Wizards or Rockets which should be less expensive than trading up with Hawks...

To be honest, I have quite no clue what Spurs will do because I don't know how they have evaluated various prospect and what is their whole rebuilding plan. Aside of listing some various scenarios that are sensible, there isn't a lot more to say. Wait and see...

[Bruno]

I just laugh at how so many think mock draft rankings are exactly what teams go off of and that nothing else matters. Value is relative especially in a draft like this. And it’s doubly funny to think ATL would “love” Clingan at 4 but cant stomach taking him at 1?

No, if Clingan in their guy, while they may like to extract extra value, they are going to draft him without hesitation at 1. Theres zero scenario where they say “well we love Clingan the most but you know its just not worth it at one like it is at 4”

I think it's more complicate than that.

Sarr and Risacher are viewed as the only legit option at #1. If Landry Fields (Hawks GM) goes with Clingan an it doesn't work, he is basically done as a GM. Chris Grant, who made the bold move of going with Anthony Bennett at #1 in 2013, still hasn't recovered from it. If Fields go with Sarr/Risacher and it doesn't work, the backlash will be way smaller because it would be a case of "we were all wrong about him".

Fields also isn't working in a quiet environment with Hawks. Trae Young has publicly put pressure on Hawks FO and there is Hawks owner's son breathing down his neck.

The key factor for Hawks is how they view their future with Young. If they think he will stick with them, Clingan might be the right pick. If they think he will soon ask to be traded, the high upside Sarr should go #1. Risacher is the in-between choice who is a weird fit with their roster.

[onechance87]

I think it's more complicate than that.

Sarr and Risacher are viewed as the only legit option at #1. If Landry Fields (Hawks GM) goes with Clingan an it doesn't work, he is basically done as a GM. Chris Grant, who made the bold move of going with Anthony Bennett at #1 in 2013, still hasn't recovered from it. If Fields go with Sarr/Risacher and it doesn't work, the backlash will be way smaller because it would be a case of "we were all wrong about him".

Fields also isn't working in a quiet environment with Hawks. Trae Young has publicly put pressure on Hawks FO and there is Hawks owner's son breathing down his neck.

The key factor for Hawks is how they view their future with Young. If they think he will stick with them, Clingan might be the right pick. If they think he will soon ask to be traded, the high upside Sarr should go #1. Risacher is the in-between choice who is a weird fit with their roster.

next couple of weeks cant come soon enough.

[Seventyniner]

Fields also isn't working in a quiet environment with Hawks. Trae Young has publicly put pressure on Hawks FO and there is Hawks owner's son breathing down his neck.

imo this is the important part. While many of the deals we discuss here might be good or bad in a vacuum, teams have idiosyncrasies like the Hawks do in your list. That makes teams do strange, even stupid, things sometimes.

The Hawks should be the team that the Spurs are having the most discussions with up to and including draft days (man it's weird to have that be a plural).

Random question: can players picked during round 1 be traded the next day during round 2? I would hope so.

[CGD]

The whole "he is working out with Spurs because there are talks about Spurs trading up" thing is incredibility stupid. Risacher isn't at all a lock to be drafted top2 and Spurs at #4 would be a great draft outcome for him. I'm quite sure that he would rather be drafted at #4 by Spurs than at #2 by Wizards.

What lies behind all theses rumors is that Hawks don't have an obvious choice with their first pick. Sarr might be too much a project for a team that is trying to win now. Risacher won't really improve their roster given that they already have De'Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Clingan is the player who will help them the most in the next couple of years but they might think he will be there at #3 or #4 with the lower salary associated...

Bingo. The Trade up narrative is totally of ATL's (and WAS) doing. Spurs are truly in a great position in this specific draft.

[Mr. Body]

I think it's more complicate than that.

Sarr and Risacher are viewed as the only legit option at #1. If Landry Fields (Hawks GM) goes with Clingan an it doesn't work, he is basically done as a GM. Chris Grant, who made the bold move of going with Anthony Bennett at #1 in 2013, still hasn't recovered from it. If Fields go with Sarr/Risacher and it doesn't work, the backlash will be way smaller because it would be a case of "we were all wrong about him".

Fields also isn't working in a quiet environment with Hawks. Trae Young has publicly put pressure on Hawks FO and there is Hawks owner's son breathing down his neck.

The key factor for Hawks is how they view their future with Young. If they think he will stick with them, Clingan might be the right pick. If they think he will soon ask to be traded, the high upside Sarr should go #1. Risacher is the in-between choice who is a weird fit with their roster.

Totally agree about the tight spot he's in. The fanbase won't be happy with a Clingan pick. Even if none of them know much about Sarr, the narrative has already been set (by mock drafters and ESPN types). "Oh no, we drafted a big white stiff!"

Of course they'd like to squeeze some value out of the pick. I'm not sure trading down with Clingan still in mind is the right way to go, in any case. Supposing the Spurs jump up to get Risacher, then I guess Sarr immediately goes to Washington. The risk is still that Houston trades down with a team that wants to steal the UConn big man. And then (in this scene) Atlanta has the 4 and 8 without the defensive anchor they wanted.

[Vienna]

Sarr and Risacher are viewed as the only legit option at #1.

is it just me and I just got a wrong impression about it, or did someone else also notice that there isn't that much interest in Sarr in the last weeks?
so maybe he is no longer viewed as a legit top 2 pick? that would leave Risacher as the only option for Fields regarding not risking his GM job.

[mo7888]

My suggestions:

Hawks Get:

#8
ATL25
ATL27
26 Swap removed
Some Players

Spurs Get:

#1
Trae

So, Atlanta nets 2 picks, a swap, and whatever players are included

Could switch out 8 for 4, but I wouldn't send both.

I really hope we don't do that. I don't see a scenario where if include 25 atl pick. Maybe the lesser of ours and their's, but that'd be it.

[DPG21920]

I think it's more complicate than that.

Sarr and Risacher are viewed as the only legit option at #1. If Landry Fields (Hawks GM) goes with Clingan an it doesn't work, he is basically done as a GM. Chris Grant, who made the bold move of going with Anthony Bennett at #1 in 2013, still hasn't recovered from it. If Fields go with Sarr/Risacher and it doesn't work, the backlash will be way smaller because it would be a case of "we were all wrong about him".

Fields also isn't working in a quiet environment with Hawks. Trae Young has publicly put pressure on Hawks FO and there is Hawks owner's son breathing down his neck.

The key factor for Hawks is how they view their future with Young. If they think he will stick with them, Clingan might be the right pick. If they think he will soon ask to be traded, the high upside Sarr should go #1. Risacher is the in-between choice who is a weird fit with their roster.

That’s true - but in this draft it’s way less consensus IMO on who is the “top” pick. While Sarr/Risacher may be kind of in the lead, it’s not the no brainer conversation that usually accompanies a legit franchise prospect.

Taking Bennett is a big risk when theres other really higher rated players but in a draft like this, from what I see most fans and pundits all have similar messaging: theres no for sure star so pressure in that regard feels less.

But absolutely Trae is dictating things so there is that but Im factoring all that in as assumed. Clingan wont be their main target if Trae is likely to leave. So Im just saying that if Clingan in their guy its not going to matter getting him at 1 v 4 because they have already done that Trae calculus and arrived at their conclusion.

[scott]

I really hope we don't do that. I don't see a scenario where if include 25 atl pick. Maybe the lesser of ours and their's, but that'd be it.

Yeah I don't actually want this to happen, I just think it's a deal that ATL would agree to. I'm out on the Trae wagon (and I like him more than a lot of folks here)

[Bruno]

is it just me and I just got a wrong impression about it, or did someone else also notice that there isn't that much interest in Sarr in the last weeks?
so maybe he is no longer viewed as a legit top 2 pick? that would leave Risacher as the only option for Fields regarding not risking his GM job.

Sarr being the first choice for Wizards is something a lot of people agree on. He is the kind of long term and high upside prospect that is perfect for a team that is starting a full rebuild like Washington is. He is also playing a position where they don't have a good player or prospect since the Gafford trade.

The only uncertainty about Sarr is whether he will be picked #1 or #2. I'm guessing that's why there isn't a lot of talk about him.

[picnroll]

I pray to god the Spurs don’t acquire Young even for a second round pick in 2050.

[Mr. Body]

I wonder if the real play here is Washington swapping with Atlanta.

That way Atlanta gets to be safe taking Clingan. Washington probably prefers Sarr.

Not sure what it would take but Atlanta could squeeze and asset while still getting their man. Maybe like Kispert, although that feels a little rich.

[CGD]

I wonder if the real play here is Washington swapping with Atlanta.

That way Atlanta gets to be safe taking Clingan. Washington probably prefers Sarr.

Not sure what it would take but Atlanta could squeeze and asset while still getting their man. Maybe like Kispert, although that feels a little rich.

Man, never thought I’d feel bad for a team that got the #1 pick but this is close. Probably CLE in 2013, but those guys got so many 1st in a short span that it’s hard to.

[BatManu20]

1801743360828334519

[DPG21920]

1801743360828334519

I just dont see how this makes sense at all. 4+8 to move up doesnt make sense. Certainly 4 or 8 + an ATL pick back doesnt make sense either IMO.

So what does SA having ATL picks have to do with it?

The only thing I could see and I highly doubt SA does it (Im not talking about a bigger trade involving Trae or Murray, in that case SA having ATL picks makes them linking up reasonable) is pick 1 for ATL 25’ pick back to ATL.

Spurs keep picks 4 & 8 and get pick 1 as well. ATL gets their own pick back in 25’ and then could in theory reset if they wanted to and have some control over their fate. But again, I dont think ATL would do that.

[JuneJive]

Spurs would be crazy to deal those ATL picks back to them.

They have them where they want them.

Barely making the playoffs.

[onechance87]

Spurs would be crazy to deal those ATL picks back to them.

They have them where they want them.

Barely making the playoffs.

Yea theres no way they are this desperate for rissacher.

[CGD]

1801743360828334519

Hawks hype machine fellas. I do wonder if they get desperate enough, if ATL starts to drop their price but even then I don’t know that it’s worth it at all for the Spurs. Just watch, one of historic dumb dumbs like DET, WAS, or CHA will take the bait themselves.

[Ariel]

1801743360828334519
Is this the caucasian Eric Zhang?

[mystargtr34]

Only way I’d entertain moving up to 1 is offering the Hawks 4 + Keldon + 35 + multiple seconds.

No way I’m doing 4+ 8.

Don’t want DJ and not that high on Trae at least not for what the Hawks would want

[CGD]

I’ve been wondering if ATL would consider trading out of 1 if they recovered the 26swap and CHA FRP, along with 8 and 35?

[rascal]

I’ve been wondering if ATL would consider trading out of 1 if they recovered the 26swap and CHA FRP, along with 8 and 35?

Doubt it. It's the first time atlanta has won the first overall pick during the lottery years. I expect them to draft Sarr.

[rascal]

Yea theres no way they are this desperate for rissacher.

Risacher isn't even worth one Unprotected Atlanta pick. Spurs will get a better SF in next year's draft than Risacher. Just wait and see, keep that Atlanta pick and fill that SF next year with a better player.

[CGD]

Doubt it. It's the first time atlanta has won the first overall pick during the lottery years. I expect them to draft Sarr.

Sarr makes the most sense there. I feel they are bluffing on ZR some and trying to bait the Spurs.

[mystargtr34]

I still can’t see the Hawks taking Risacher at 1. I think the pick will be Sarr.

I can see Risacher going 2nd but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Wiz went Clingan.

[Mr. Body]

I would not be surprised if he dropped to Detroit and that's nothing against him. It's a false narrative that he's obviously top two talent in this draft when that's clearly not true. Top five for him would be great.

[DPG21920]

Oof

1802705590990315620

[LeBowen]

Combine data for international prospects is irrelevant because domestic talent practices for it and obviously rates beter.
And even if it was relevant, it just shows basketball talent is way more important.

[DPG21920]

Combine data for international prospects is irrelevant because domestic talent practices for it and obviously rates beter.
And even if it was relevant, it just shows basketball talent is way more important.

I think that is maybe true if you’re Luka level of talented on offense but if you’re someone who is just ok shooter and not really a self creator or high level creator for others I dont know man..

[Mr. Body]

I personally don't care much about Rizz's athleticism or short wingspan. I don't like him for lots of other reasons.

[LeBowen]

I think that is maybe true if you’re Luka level of talented on offense but if you’re someone who is just ok shooter and not really a self creator or high level creator for others I dont know man..

With team workouts being a thing, I don't see the point of combine.
I'm sure every player Spurs are interested in will have a workout to determine his actual capabilities.
Except injured Topic.

That data is way more valuable and valid than combine stats which are fairly easy to cheat.

[Ariel]

Oof

1802705590990315620
bSPARQ??? :lol WTF is this?

[couchman]

I found the European vertical leap numbers to be shockingly low across the board.
It made me wonder why:
Do they test differently?
Do players not prepare for it?
Is leaping simply less important in European basketball?
Lots of questions…

[Dejounte]

I found the European vertical leap numbers to be shockingly low across the board.
It made me wonder why:
Do they test differently?
Do players not prepare for it?
Is leaping simply less important in European basketball?
Lots of questions…

Or the truth could be that the numbers are what they are and people need to stop looking too hard into it tbh

We live in a world where we believe what we want to believe and nothing or noone can be trusted anymore. Quite sad

[DPG21920]

With team workouts being a thing, I don't see the point of combine.
I'm sure every player Spurs are interested in will have a workout to determine his actual capabilities.
Except injured Topic.

That data is way more valuable and valid than combine stats which are fairly easy to cheat.

Sure - it’s just one data point. It would have been stupid to take Lukas testing and apply too much thought to it with everything you saw him do in real games against great competition.

Just saying that Risacher isn’t a Luka level prospect and theres a lot more questions to his game and a lack of athleticism there raises more of an eyebrow to a degree but its not some death blow especially in this draft

[DAF86]

I found the European vertical leap numbers to be shockingly low across the board.
It made me wonder why:
Do they test differently?
Do players not prepare for it?
Is leaping simply less important in European basketball?
Lots of questions…

People outside the US definitely give less importance to athletic traits, in all of sports, not just basketball. These atheltic and physical measurements aren't a thing at all in the rest of the World (unless it is a field and track sport). If it is a skilled based sport, they only care about wether you can play it or not, and there's no need for measurements there, you can just see it on the court/field/pitch, tbh.

Imagine a soccer team not signing Messi because of his measurements. :lol

[BatManu20]

1803532054073598252

[Uriel]

Is there precedent for a prospect grading poorly on pre-draft analytics models but still turning into a quality NBA player? If so, how much?

[rascal]

Spurs better not over value the French players because they are French.

[Duncan2177]

Spurs better not over value the French players because they are French.

That's what I'm afraid of.

[spurraider21]

bSPARQ??? :lol WTF is this?
i know from being an NFL draft junkie that SPARQ basically is your relative athleticism to other players at your position, accounting for things like size. ie two different defensive ends who have identical athletic testing but one guy is an 2 inches taller and 30 pounds heavier would therefore have the higher SPARQ score. i know for the NFL they also apply it historically, ie if you are a 95th percentile SPARQ score at your position, that is against historical measurements, not just your contemporaries

i can only assume they are doing the same here

[spurraider21]

Is there precedent for a prospect grading poorly on pre-draft analytics models but still turning into a quality NBA player? If so, how much?
tell me which analytic models you are looking at

[Mr. Body]

Spurs better not over value the French players because they are French.

They're already overvalued. Risacher isn't a top 4 pick and Salaun shouldn't be in the lottery.

[CGD]

There was a piece out today that said Reed and Clingan are at the top of their board, but I am curious what HOU would do if Risacher is there at 3.

[TD 21]

Is there precedent for a prospect grading poorly on pre-draft analytics models but still turning into a quality NBA player? If so, how much?

Of course. But despite the perception, their actions have told us this is an organization that (inexplicably) not only doesn't place a premium on analytics, but largely ignores them.

Since Risacher is not a great athlete and has plenty of weaknesses, I'm not expecting his individual metrics to look good. I'd expect his value to eventually show up more team wise, in terms of on/off.


There was a piece out today that said Reed and Clingan are at the top of their board, but I am curious what HOU would do if Risacher is there at 3.

My sense is they'd select Risacher.

[z0sa]

Took a look at some more Risacher tape and man, he's a bit underrated pushing full-court. He's not great in the half court but he can go coast to coast with the ball and finish strong. He's definitely going to have some rough edges, especially in the half court, but he shouldn't be expected to do more than either shoot open shots or make a move against scrambling defenses. He's got decent court vision as well when he does get a step on his defender. He won't be worth much throwing the ball to, defended, with 6 seconds on the shot clock or something, but he absolutely should immediately improve the flow of our offense when our sets click or if he's got a rebound and an open lane.

Fingers crossed we somehow draft this man.

[Extra Stout]

Part of the narrative with Risacher is that has ceiling is limited; he’ll never be much of a ballhandler or playmaker.

Why at 19 is it impossible for him to develop more skills, but totally possible for a Ron Holland or Tidjane Salaun?

[Pauleta14]

Spurs better not over value the French players because they are French.


That's what I'm afraid of.

What makes you think knowing Wemby and Pop/RC that they'd prioritize nationality over need/merit?

Another franchise and another player why not but not them

[rascal]

The easiest skill to improve on is shooting . Many examples of players improving on their shooting. Not many who improve PG Dribbling skills and playmaking.

[Ariel]

i know from being an NFL draft junkie that SPARQ basically is your relative athleticism to other players at your position, accounting for things like size. ie two different defensive ends who have identical athletic testing but one guy is an 2 inches taller and 30 pounds heavier would therefore have the higher SPARQ score. i know for the NFL they also apply it historically, ie if you are a 95th percentile SPARQ score at your position, that is against historical measurements, not just your contemporaries

i can only assume they are doing the same here
Thanks, I didn't know that. I don't follow NFL at all, and I'm extremely skeptical of catch all metrics whose formula isn't specified and the rationale of how it relates to actual sport performance isn't clear. I still don't put any stock into it, but at least it's interesting to know where it comes from.

[TD 21]

The easiest skill to improve on is shooting . Many examples of players improving on their shooting. Not many who improve PG Dribbling skills and playmaking.

Not true, as least as far as enough for the defense to respect it to space the floor (which is all that matters; anything less is superficial).

In a team sport, it's about role. Risacher has a clear cut one. What's Castle's? He's not a primary creator or a floor spacer and this team doesn't have enough of either of those things for him to play a "connector" role.

[rascal]

Not true, as least as far as enough for the defense to respect it to space the floor (which is all that matters; anything less is superficial).

In a team sport, it's about role. Risacher has a clear cut one. What's Castle's? He's not a primary creator or a floor spacer and this team doesn't have enough of either of those things for him to play a "connector" role.

Don't waste the 4 pick on a SF when next year's draft is stacked with better SF than Risacher.

Spurs still have a need for a perimeter defender and Castle will slide right into a combo guard role, playing both at the 1 and 2. Spurs will like that versatility. His offense is solid as he does take it to the basket and is a good finisher around the rim.

[Mr. Body]

Not true, as least as far as enough for the defense to respect it to space the floor (which is all that matters; anything less is superficial).

In a team sport, it's about role. Risacher has a clear cut one. What's Castle's? He's not a primary creator or a floor spacer and this team doesn't have enough of either of those things for him to play a "connector" role.

Castle can play multiple roles. In fact, he's already shown he can between high school and college. He's a jackknife who takes pride in being able to do a lot of different things. Risacher can only stand in the corners and receive the ball.

[Vienna]

The easiest skill to improve on is shooting . Many examples of players improving on their shooting. Not many who improve PG Dribbling skills and playmaking.

I think it‘s exactly the other way around.

[TD 21]

Don't waste the 4 pick on a SF when next year's draft is stacked with better SF than Risacher.

Spurs still have a need for a perimeter defender and Castle will slide right into a combo guard role, playing both at the 1 and 2. Spurs will like that versatility. His offense is solid as he does take it to the basket and is a good finisher around the rim.

Basing a pick on something that may or may not happen a year in advance is foolish.

Risacher would fill that same need and unlike Castle, he can or at least is closer to being able to space the floor and he fills a positional need, at a more difficult to fill one.

Good luck to his lack of pull up jumper, slow, not overly strong, limited wiggle ass trying to get to the rim on a team with one player (Vassell) defenses respect enough to not disregard from 3.

[Uriel]

Why is it that people assume that players with no self-creation ability will never be all-stars? Rashard Lewis didn’t have a ton of self-creation ability, but he still managed to make multiple all-star teams. Obviously, I’m not saying Risacher will definitely turn into Lewis, but I am saying there is precedent for 6-10 forwards whose primary role is spacing the floor and spot-up shooting to make the all-star team.

[Ariel]

Why is it that people assume that players with no self-creation ability will never be all-stars? Rashard Lewis didn’t have a ton of self-creation ability, but he still managed to make multiple all-star teams. Obviously, I’m not saying Risacher will definitely turn into Lewis, but I am saying there is precedent for 6-10 forwards whose primary role is spacing the floor and spot-up shooting to make the all-star team.
A lot is made of Risacher's on ball skills, and it's far from the most important aspect of his game. What I'm really concerned with is how good his shooting truly is, and how his defense translates. If his shooting is elite and his defense is (at least) good, then he's a very fine pick even if he never develops on ball skills. If he fails to live up to expectations on either, that's where he'll disappoint.

[exstatic]

Why is it that people assume that players with no self-creation ability will never be all-stars? Rashard Lewis didn’t have a ton of self-creation ability, but he still managed to make multiple all-star teams. Obviously, I’m not saying Risacher will definitely turn into Lewis, but I am saying there is precedent for 6-10 forwards whose primary role is spacing the floor and spot-up shooting to make the all-star team.

This isn’t the 90s. You could be an All star then without a 3 point shot,too.

[Mr. Body]

It depends on what conference you're in. Back in the day Chris Gatling and Jamaal MacGloire became All-Stars because they had so few good players. Last year it was Trae Young who was among the undeserving.

[ace3g]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZgLYztD__c

[JPB]

Is there precedent for a prospect grading poorly on pre-draft analytics models but still turning into a quality NBA player? If so, how much?

https://hoopshype.com/lists/worst-performing-stars-draft-combine-kawhi-durant/

I don't know how they ran the whole thing but those euro combine results were strange overall, not just for Risacher but including prospects known for their athleticism. Teams will have their own tests.

Or maybe Zach sabotaged his tests to fall to #4 :D will be interesting to hear about his workouts with other top picking teams. If he follows the plan, he'll underperform there too...

[Bruno]

I'm a little surprised to see Risacher working out with Wizards. Risacher was said to be looking more as teams where he would fit well over being drafted as high as possible. Wizards might be the worst team possible for him. Maybe he is doing that because no teams he likes has made him a promise, maybe he is sabotaging these workouts as said previously...

And I'm quite convinced Hawks won't pick Risacher at #1 and are bluffing about that with the idea to get a lot from Spurs in a trade to move up.

[DPG21920]

I'm a little surprised to see Risacher working out with Wizards. Risacher was said to be looking more as teams where he would fit well over being drafted as high as possible. Wizards might be the worst team possible for him. Maybe he is doing that because no teams he likes has made him a promise, maybe he is sabotaging these workouts as said previously...

And I'm quite convinced Hawks won't pick Risacher at #1 and are bluffing about that with the idea to get a lot from Spurs in a trade to move up.

Do we really think Spurs value Risacher so clearly that ATL thinks that may work? What would give them that impression that SA loves Risacher above all other players?

[kjhip1]

Do we really think Spurs value Risacher so clearly that ATL thinks that may work? What would give them that impression that SA loves Risacher above all other players?

Would Quinn Snyder and Landry Fields have some type of org knowledge as to how SA goes about their draft processes?

[DPG21920]

Would Quinn Snyder and Landry Fields have some type of org knowledge as to how SA goes about their draft processes?

I highly doubt, even with their relationship, that SA would give them that leverage by letting them know that. But either way, if Im SA I am calling their bluff and see if they take Risacher with pick 1.

I hope they do tbh…

[exstatic]

Would Quinn Snyder and Landry Fields have some type of org knowledge as to how SA goes about their draft processes?

I think Quinn and Landry were only ever in Austin.

If there were ever a draft to get a wrong read on SA, this would be that draft. It’s so flat, and you’re as likely to get Player A at 3 as you are at 8 or 9.

[Mr. Body]

I highly doubt, even with their relationship, that SA would give them that leverage by letting them know that. But either way, if Im SA I am calling their bluff and see if they take Risacher with pick 1.

I hope they do tbh…

Seems an easy bluff to call. Even if the Spurs valued Risacher, it's not hard to see that Atlanta isn't entirely comfortable taking him. Atlanta can't even know that he's at the top of the Spurs' board. They're going on Wembanyama's French relationship and comments he's made supporting a fellow French player. All this while making it clear that they like Clingan.

Meanwhile, the Spurs don't need to jump over Washington or Houston, as neither team will take Risacher either.

[kjhip1]

I think Quinn and Landry were only ever in Austin.

If there were ever a draft to get a wrong read on SA, this would be that draft. It’s so flat, and you’re as likely to get Player A at 3 as you are at 8 or 9.

Yeah, the mocks are all over the place. Although talent is less than ideal, it’ll still make for an interesting night.

[DPG21920]

Seems an easy bluff to call. Even if the Spurs valued Risacher, it's not hard to see that Atlanta isn't entirely comfortable taking him. Atlanta can't even know that he's at the top of the Spurs' board. They're going on Wembanyama's French relationship and comments he's made supporting a fellow French player. All this while making it clear that they like Clingan.

Meanwhile, the Spurs don't need to jump over Washington or Houston, as neither team will take Risacher either.

Agree and based on TIMVP board etc..it doesn’t sound like SA values any one player SO much that they’d trade up to get someone.

[Bruno]

Do we really think Spurs value Risacher so clearly that ATL thinks that may work? What would give them that impression that SA loves Risacher above all other players?

If I were another franchise GMs, I would clearly put Risacher at #1 on Spurs big board for various reasons:
- Risacher is viewed as a top2 prospect along Sarr by a lot of draft analysts.
- Spurs have a huge hole at the starting SF spot and Risacher would be a great fit.
- Spurs have scouted Risacher a lot including RC Buford and Holt.
- Spurs will not worry about Risacher's transition to the US with Wembanyama helping it.

[DPG21920]

If I were another franchise GMs, I would clearly put Risacher at #1 on Spurs big board for various reasons:
- Risacher is viewed as a top2 prospect along Sarr by a lot of draft analysts.
- Spurs have a huge hole at the starting SF spot and Risacher would be a great fit.
- Spurs have scouted Risacher a lot including RC Buford and Holt.
- Spurs will not worry about Risacher's transition to the US with Wembanyama helping it.

That makes sense, but that would still be speculation vs a leak from SA I am guessing. With all the Sarr to WAS noise (meaning SA would only need ATL to pass on Risacher for him to fall to SA at 4), does anyone even with Risacher being a fit for SA think SA values him so much more than anyone else to give up something meaningful to get him?

[CGD]

I don’t buy that ATL is out on Sarr.
Why exactly? Bc of the workout snub and bc WAS really really really wants Sarr? This makes no sense to me.

Instead of playing games with SAS, ATL should instead be playing games with WAS in the hopes they cough up an asset to move up to 1 for Sarr.

[Uriel]

And I'm quite convinced Hawks won't pick Risacher at #1 and are bluffing about that with the idea to get a lot from Spurs in a trade to move up.
What makes you say that?

[Bruno]

That makes sense, but that would still be speculation vs a leak from SA I am guessing. With all the Sarr to WAS noise (meaning SA would only need ATL to pass on Risacher for him to fall to SA at 4), does anyone even with Risacher being a fit for SA think SA values him so much more than anyone else to give up something meaningful to get him?

I hope no other teams GM has leaks from Spurs about who they really like. In reality, Spurs might very well like Castle or Sheppard more than Risacher. It is just that Risacher is the most logical candidate to be on top of Spurs board.

And I agree with you, Spurs shouldn't overpay to get #1 for Risacher especially since he might fall to #4.

[Bruno]

What makes you say that?

It is just that Clingan and Sarr are just way better fit for Hawks. Capela is struggling and they really need a good center.

[Dejounte]

If I were another franchise GMs, I would clearly put Risacher at #1 on Spurs big board for various reasons:
- Risacher is viewed as a top2 prospect along Sarr by a lot of draft analysts.
- Spurs have a huge hole at the starting SF spot and Risacher would be a great fit.
- Spurs have scouted Risacher a lot including RC Buford and Holt.
- Spurs will not worry about Risacher's transition to the US with Wembanyama helping it.

Bro this really reads like all you had were two bullet points and then you added 3 and 4 because you thought two wasn’t enough.

The Spurs have a huge hole at point guard and that’s pretty much what’s acknowledged universally, not SF.

The Spurs have scouted everybody and there’s not much evidence that it was “a lot” nor should it be assumed as more scouted than others just because of the scarcity of reporting.

your 4th point can be valid for all French prospects. Wembanyama doesn’t even follow him on any of his social media. You’d figure there would be something there after yesterday’s workout but nada. Tony didn’t even give him a shoutout like he did with Salaun. I don’t think there’s much of a relationship there.

heavy bias behind these points, tbh

[Bruno]

Bro this really reads like all you had were two bullet points and then you added 3 and 4 because you thought two wasn’t enough.

The Spurs have a huge hole at point guard and that’s pretty much what’s acknowledged universally, not SF.

The Spurs have scouted everybody and there’s not much evidence that it was “a lot” nor should it be assumed as more scouted than others just because of the scarcity of reporting.

your 4th point can be valid for all French prospects. Wembanyama doesn’t even follow him on any of his social media. You’d figure there would be something there after yesterday’s workout but nada. Tony didn’t even give him a shoutout like he did with Salaun. I don’t think there’s much of a relationship there.

heavy bias behind these points, tbh

Well, Spurs have more than 1 hole.

I'm not saying "Risacher is #1 for Spurs". Spurs might even agree with you and have Risacher very low on their board. What I'm saying is for other franchises, Risacher being #1 for Spurs is what seems the most likely.

BTW, Risacher is currently under contract with Parker's team in France. Before traveling to the US, he was practicing in their arena and when he will be drafted, Parker will get some buyout money. But yeah, there isn't much of a relationship...

[z0sa]

Bro this really reads like all you had were two bullet points and then you added 3 and 4 because you thought two wasn’t enough.

The Spurs have a huge hole at point guard and that’s pretty much what’s acknowledged universally, not SF.

The Spurs have scouted everybody and there’s not much evidence that it was “a lot” nor should it be assumed as more scouted than others just because of the scarcity of reporting.

your 4th point can be valid for all French prospects. Wembanyama doesn’t even follow him on any of his social media. You’d figure there would be something there after yesterday’s workout but nada. Tony didn’t even give him a shoutout like he did with Salaun. I don’t think there’s much of a relationship there.

heavy bias behind these points, tbh

In my opinion, it's not that the hole at SF doesn't exist. It's simply that most people realize filling the PG hole first will pay way higher dividends.

Risacher would certainly fill a big gap, provided of course his game actually translates to the NBA. A great PG would be more preferable but if you can get a quality SF prospect in the absence of a PG, it's clearly the next biggest problem. After that, it's PF, unless you believe in Collins, Barlow and/or Bassey.

[TD 21]

I don't see it as an either or between SF and PG. If they trade up to 1 for Risacher, I would think it'd be part of a package for Murray, not as a standalone.

As far as the bigger need, despite the perception, Jones grades out as a higher impact player than Johnson. But, Champagnie provides a secondary rotational caliber option at SF, while Wesley fails to do the same at PG.


Wembanyama doesn’t even follow him on any of his social media. You’d figure there would be something there after yesterday’s workout but nada. Tony didn’t even give him a shoutout like he did with Salaun. I don’t think there’s much of a relationship there.

Victor Wembanyama breaks down France's 2024 NBA draft prospects - ESPN (https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/39416203/victor-wembanyama-breaks-france-2024-nba-draft-prospects)

[spurraider21]

He looked really good today too

[cutewizard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXITDZcE3JQ

[lefty]

He looked really good today too

I watched the Hawks-Pacers highlights, it was fun to watch tbh, both teams seem to have promising young players

[Uriel]

Risacher’s been a pro for a while and it clearly shows. He’s much more polished than most of the other rookies in his class.