Nikola Topic - 2024 NBA Draft Prospect

[timvp]

https://www.spurstalk.com/nikola-topic-spurs-2024-nba-draft/

[Mr. Body]

Never really gave the Spurs what they needed. What does he do that Tre doesn't already do, minus defense? Add major injury concerns. Add the Serbian 'lie about everything.' No thanks.

[Russ]

https://www.spurstalk.com/nikola-topic-spurs-2024-nba-draft/

Drafting Topic at #8 would be criticized apocalyptically on draft night and then celebrated as the obvious pick we all saw coming at the time a few years down the road.

[z0sa]

Drafting a guy who's reportedly going to sit out the entire season would suck, but feels very PATFO-y if last season is any indication.

[TrainOfThought5]

Drafting a guy who's reportedly going to sit out the entire season would suck, but feels very PATFO-y if last season is any indication.

Start the CIA Shadow Tank Rumors IMMEDIATELY

[couchman]

This is a “swing for the fences” prospect.
He has some of the highest upside in the draft but could also be a bust.
I believe his outside shot will come and it all depends on his health.
I’d be happy to take a chance on him at 8.

[z0sa]

Start the CIA Shadow Tank Rumors IMMEDIATELY

Yep, it would give the Tank Crew a free year to spout their non-sense 24/7 without reprieve, regardless of what PATFO or the players say about winning.

[Uriel]

The Serbian’s lack of athleticism is a concern. While he exhibits some wiggle when going to the rim, he’s otherwise underwhelming in the athleticism department. Defensively, his lack of speed, quickness or length are definite issues. It’s not clear what type of player he could guard in the NBA.

Offensively, we know Topic can pass but how will the rest translate? He finished at the basket well in Europe but everything he did was below the rim. I’m not even sure he has the athleticism to elevate above the rim in traffic. Successful below the rim finishers in the NBA are typically blessed with strength, burst, power or speed — and he isn’t that type of athlete.
This sounds like it could have been written pre-draft about Nikola Jokic.

[SpursFan86]

As much as I want to give up on this guy after the ACL news, he just totally seems like the type of dude who we look back on in 5 years and go, “How the hell did we pick _____ over Topic?”

He’s not my first choice at #8 but I wouldn’t be upset at all if we go that route.

[Mr. Body]

This sounds like it could have been written pre-draft about Nikola Jokic.

I'm also not very athletic and am a pretty good passer.

[baseline bum]

As much as I want to give up on this guy after the ACL news, he just totally seems like the type of dude who we look back on in 5 years and go, “How the hell did we pick _____ over Topic?”

He’s not my first choice at #8 but I wouldn’t be upset at all if we go that route.

Or maybe we look back in five years like "How the hell did Detroit pick Killian Hayes 7th?"

[exstatic]

I'm also not very athletic and am a pretty good passer.

Did you play in Europe at age 17 and 18, and do well?

[Mr. Body]

Did you play in Europe at age 17 and 18, and do well?

Lots of guys play well in Europe and suck in the NBA. Let's stop this crappy narrative. "Oh, he can't jump he must be Jokic."

[TimmehC]

The guy has two near-elite level skills: passing and rim pressure.

Problem is that the main skills a team with an established franchise player usually need - and the Spurs are no exception to this - are defense and outside shooting(spacing). There's a decent chance the shooting eventually comes around, but his weird-ass body makes me doubtful about him ever being even an average defensive player.

[exstatic]

Lots of guys play well in Europe and suck in the NBA. Let's stop this crappy narrative. "Oh, he can't jump he must be Jokic."

Not at 17 or 18 years old on the parent club. One of those pops up maybe very 3-4 years. Porzingod 2013, Luka 2018, Sengün 2021.

[baseline bum]

Not at 17 or 18 years old on the parent club. One of those pops up maybe very 3-4 years. Porzingod 2013, Luka 2018, Sengün 2021.

It's all Europe, it's all the same. ABA and the ACB league, same shit amirite?

[Robz4000]

If the Spurs trade back to the mid-teens I wouldn't hate taking a flier on him, otherwise hard pass tbh.

[The Truth #6]

The two knee injuries, the disappointing measurements, the lies from his camp, the concern that he was propped up on his lower level squad, the concern he couldn't even play next year... seems like enough bad vibes, unfairly or not, for me to want to move on. It's not like picking an injured Embiid at #3 where you know he's a great player if he can regain his health. It's not even clear how well he translates to the NBA before all the other concerns piled up. That's if they still want him. I say move on.

I'm not about appeasing VW like teams do with LeBron, but VW wants to improve and not waste another season. Drafting Topic seems like wasting another season unless there are other moves in place.

I don't know. If they really like him, they should still consider trading back and not take him too high.

[TrainOfThought5]

The real player we need to be talking about is Devin Carter.

[JPB]

This sounds like it could have been written pre-draft about Nikola Jokic.
Jokic is the exception not the rule. He's one in a million. and can't be used as a reference. pretty much every euro PG who's have been and will be described with the red flags Timvp mentioned about Topic failed or didn't even made the NBA for those reasons, even when they came in their prime.

Jokic passing game was already described as potentially elite pre-draft, better than Topic actually. and Jokic wasn't expected to have burst nor defend fastest, POA opponents. I'm still honestly puzzled about how people seem so high on a kid who's not very fast, not really athletic, play under the rim, can't really shoot and can't defend at all and whose playmaking skills are OK but, not elite either, just becomes he "dominated" in a minor european league in pro, wihtout any indication he would against real opposition, with just 2 Euroleague games where he's being transparent as data.

Not sure about the idea here? That he learns how to shoot, how to defend, and become Usain Bolt within spurs program? Again, not like his playmkaing skills are Doncic-esque or Rubio-esque. He lacks almost everything spurs need... Luka, TP, Jokic mentioned when talking about Topic, there might be a bit too much fantasy about the kid.

[Bruno]

In the "Toronto pick watch" thread, a popular idea was that is was better to have the pick this year because in 2025 Spurs will have 2 to 4 other first round pick and don't need an extra one. If you pick Topic at #8, you're basically turning the Toronto pick into a 2025 pick (with one year less on a cheap rookie contract)...

Topic is really a talented player. There will be a point where a team will be ready to wait one year for that extra talent over other prospects. If I have to guess, it will be between #14 and #20. #8 is way too early for him.

[LeBowen]

Jokic is the exception not the rule. He's one in a million. and can't be used as a reference. pretty much every euro PG who's have been and will be described with the red flags Timvp mentioned about Topic failed or didn't even made the NBA for those reasons, even when they came in their prime.

Jokic passing game was already described as potentially elite pre-draft, better than Topic actually. and Jokic wasn't expected to have burst nor defend fastest, POA opponents. I'm still honestly puzzled about how people seem so high on a kid who's not very fast, not really athletic, play under the rim, can't really shoot and can't defend at all and whose playmaking skills are OK but, not elite either, just becomes he "dominated" in a minor european league in pro, wihtout any indication he would against real opposition, with just 2 Euroleague games where he's being transparent as data.

Not sure about the idea here? That he learns how to shoot, how to defend, and become Usain Bolt within spurs program? Again, not like his playmkaing skills are Doncic-esque or Rubio-esque. He lacks almost everything spurs need... Luka, TP, Jokic mentioned when talking about Topic, there might be a bit too much fantasy about the kid.

European guards don't have any success in the NBA unless they're all-time great talents.
It's easier to make up for lack of athleticism when you're a skilled wing or big, especially if you're a great shooter.

Unathletic guards just aren't a thing in today's league unless they can shoot lights out.
Topic can't.

Once again, here's the list.

Foreign* guards in recent drafts:
2022: #7 Dyson Daniels
2021: #6 Josh Giddey
2020: #7 Killian Hayes
2018: #3 Luka Doncic
2017: #8 Frank Ntilikina
2015: #5 Mario Hezonja, #7 Emmanuel Mudiay
2014: #27 Bogdan Bogdanovic (came over in 2017 at 25 years old)
2013: #17 Dennis Schroeder

*Foreign as in NBA being their first American basketball experience, I'm not counting foreign players that went to college.

All those players did way more than Topic in their teenage years. And none of them since Bogdan made it. Except for the greatest European prospect ever.

[exstatic]

It's all Europe, it's all the same. ABA and the ACB league, same shit amirite?

Jokic played in the Serbian and Adriatic leagues, so yeah, it kinda is. If you’re 17/18 playing well and getting minutes (pretty rare) in a grown ass man’s league over across the pond, you’re something different.

[exstatic]

The real player we need to be talking about is Devin Carter.

Miniature SG. The end.

[LeBowen]

Jokic played in the Serbian and Adriatic leagues, so yeah, it kinda is. If you’re 17/18 playing well and getting minutes (pretty rare) in a grown ass man’s league over across the pond, you’re something different.

That's why I wrote about guards being different than forwards and bigs.
In FIBA basketball slow guards are still a think and it's way easier to make up for their lack of athleticism.
It's not a thing in the NBA. If they're not lights out from deep, that is.

I agree that Topic looks like he has generational passing and court vision talent, but not a single other facet of his game is even close to NBA level.
Yeah, he's got a good touch around the rim, but rim protection in ABA league is a joke.
He can't shoot at all. I don't care about FT percentages. While they obviously show he could become a good shooter, in his current state he's at least two years away.
He's disgustingly bad on defense. Hard to watch bad.


Miniature SG. The end.

Miniature? He measured at 6'2.5 without shoes, with 6'9 wingspan and all of his athletic results were great.
While Topic theoretically has a higher ceiling, Carter is guaranteed to be a great defender and he can actually shoot.
I also wouldn't pick Carter because we have a shooting guard, but he's guaranteed to be a solid contributor in the league.

[exstatic]

That's why I wrote about guards being different than forwards and bigs.
In FIBA basketball slow guards are still a think and it's way easier to make up for their lack of athleticism.
It's not a thing in the NBA. If they're not lights out from deep, that is.

I agree that Topic looks like he has generational passing and court vision talent, but not a single other facet of his game is even close to NBA level.
Yeah, he's got a good touch around the rim, but rim protection in ABA league is a joke.
He can't shoot at all. I don't care about FT percentages. While they obviously show he could become a good shooter, in his current state he's at least two years away.
He's disgustingly bad on defense. Hard to watch bad.



Miniature? He measured at 6'2.5 without shoes, with 6'9 wingspan and all of his athletic results were great.
While Topic theoretically has a higher ceiling, Carter is guaranteed to be a great defender and he can actually shoot.
I also wouldn't pick Carter because we have a shooting guard, but he's guaranteed to be a solid contributor in the league.

I don’t hate Carter, but 6’3” in the NBA is a miniature SG. If he were 6’7” or 6’8”, he’d be in the discussion for #1 overall. Everyone in this draft has at least one shortcoming, and his are size and playmaking. His asst/TO ratio isn’t unworkable, but at < 2, it’s really more of a SG/SF ratio, not a PG.

[LeBowen]

I don’t hate Carter, but 6’3” in the NBA is a miniature SG. If he were 6’7” or 6’8”, he’d be in the discussion for #1 overall. Everyone in this draft has at least one shortcoming, and his are size and playmaking. His asst/TO ratio isn’t unworkable, but at < 2, it’s really more of a SG/SF ratio, not a PG.

His size won't be a problem for teams that have bigger playmakers.
I think #5 is a bit too high for him, but he'd complement Cade perfectly.
Space the floor and cut, be a POA defender.

[exstatic]

His size won't be a problem for teams that have bigger playmakers.
I think #5 is a bit too high for him, but he'd complement Cade perfectly.
Space the floor and cut, be a POA defender.

I agree, but with a mini SG, you need multiple large playmakers, or at least high level connectors, or you surrender size when your version of Cade goes to the bench.

[LeBowen]

I agree, but with a mini SG, you need multiple large playmakers, or at least high level connectors, or you surrender size when your version of Cade goes to the bench.

Or you just match their minutes.
If not, I don't think an elite defender with his wingspan, despite the lack of height, would have trouble with guarding any bench shooting guards.
Kind of how for example Derrick and Jrue easily take care of any 6'7 or under player who's not named Luka Doncic.

[baseline bum]

The two knee injuries, the disappointing measurements, the lies from his camp, the concern that he was propped up on his lower level squad, the concern he couldn't even play next year... seems like enough bad vibes, unfairly or not, for me to want to move on. It's not like picking an injured Embiid at #3 where you know he's a great player if he can regain his health. It's not even clear how well he translates to the NBA before all the other concerns piled up. That's if they still want him. I say move on.

I'm not about appeasing VW like teams do with LeBron, but VW wants to improve and not waste another season. Drafting Topic seems like wasting another season unless there are other moves in place.

I don't know. If they really like him, they should still consider trading back and not take him too high.

It's just red flag after red flag with this guy. Camp says the injury is no big deal, turns out it's a partial ACL tear. Camp says his wingspan is 7 feet, turns out he has negative wingspan. Can't shoot the three. Has no midrange game. No floaters, no stop and pop at 15 feet, just scores at the rim over ABA scrubs but couldn't do it that effectively in Euroleague. Doesn't play defense. I can't understand why anyone would argue for this guy over Castle.

[spurraider21]

I'm also not very athletic and am a pretty good passer.
The worst passer in this draft is a much better passer than you

[TD 21]

Miniature? He measured at 6'2.5 without shoes, with 6'9 wingspan and all of his athletic results were great.

That and he rebounds and blocks shots better than some bigs.

He's not a lead creator, but can absolutely play as the nominal PG some alongside Wembanyama and Vassell, who are going to take on a lot of the ball handling duties until they upgrade Jones anyway.

[R. DeMurre]

That and he rebounds and blocks shots better than some bigs.

He's not a lead creator, but can absolutely play as the nominal PG some alongside Wembanyama and Vassell, who are going to take on a lot of the ball handling duties until they upgrade Jones anyway.

:lol:toast We posted very similar thoughts on Carter at the same time in different threads.

I think it brings up a great draft question, of whether using an 8th pick on a guy who might be a great 6th man is advisable... and I think without Wemby the answer is probably no, but with him it very well might be yes.

[scott]

It's just red flag after red flag with this guy. Camp says the injury is no big deal, turns out it's a partial ACL tear. Camp says his wingspan is 7 feet, turns out he has negative wingspan. Can't shoot the three. Has no midrange game. No floaters, no stop and pop at 15 feet, just scores at the rim over ABA scrubs but couldn't do it that effectively in Euroleague. Doesn't play defense. I can't understand why anyone would argue for this guy over Castle.

When you list out Topic’s pros and cons, it sounds like someone who should go in the early second tbh. I don’t see a ton of differences between Topic and Nunez, other than a couple of inches, but Topic gets them from a freakishly long neck and weird body type, which I’m not sure is even a selling point.

[TD 21]

:lol:toast We posted very similar thoughts on Carter at the same time in different threads.

I think it brings up a great draft question, of whether using an 8th pick on a guy who might be a great 6th man is advisable... and I think without Wemby the answer is probably no, but with him it very well might be yes.

In this draft, both in terms of the projected quality or lack thereof at the top, the Spurs having multiple lottery picks and the best prospect in 20 years if not ever, I have no qualms whatsoever about taking an older prospect who might have a 6th man ceiling because I think he has a better chance of hitting that than these mystery box wings (or combo guard, in Castle's case) have of becoming starters.

It'll be difficult for him to exceed that here because of the lack of a big guard/wing lead creator, but plenty of similar archetypes have . . .


The Spurs have been beneficiaries with the likes of Hill, Murray and White. Others include Caruso, Podziemski, Nembhard, Mann, Melton, Brogdon, Brown and Quickley.

[Mr. Body]

The worst passer in this draft is a much better passer than you

Thanks for taking seriously the point I was making and really thinking about whether I should be drafted. I appreciate it.

[John B]

It’d be disappointing at draft night to pick Topić who might not be playing the entire season. But If Spurs draft him at 8, it could be because they know more about the player Topic would become down the line, having the highest ceiling. The Spurs are not contending next season. So an injured Topic wouldn’t make a big difference in drafting him.

[CorrectCrusader]

This is the most meh pick of the draft for me. I wouldn't be happy or upset. We'd be drafting a good basketball player and that seems to always pan out long term. Especially elite free throw shooters

[Teamduncan21]

Thanks for taking seriously the point I was making and really thinking about whether I should be drafted. I appreciate it.

With the weak draft this year. Maybe you would.

[jjspur]

European guards don't have any success in the NBA unless they're all-time great talents.
It's easier to make up for lack of athleticism when you're a skilled wing or big, especially if you're a great shooter.

Unathletic guards just aren't a thing in today's league unless they can shoot lights out.
Topic can't.

Once again, here's the list.

Foreign* guards in recent drafts:
2022: #7 Dyson Daniels
2021: #6 Josh Giddey
2020: #7 Killian Hayes
2018: #3 Luka Doncic
2017: #8 Frank Ntilikina
2015: #5 Mario Hezonja, #7 Emmanuel Mudiay
2014: #27 Bogdan Bogdanovic (came over in 2017 at 25 years old)
2013: #17 Dennis Schroeder

*Foreign as in NBA being their first American basketball experience, I'm not counting foreign players that went to college.

All those players did way more than Topic in their teenage years. And none of them since Bogdan made it. Except for the greatest European prospect ever.

I was thinking kind of the same thing about Euro guards, but I'm glad someone pointed out some of the players drafted. Other than Luka, these guys were drafted fairly high and are sort of meh even after playing in the NBA, and some didn't pan out at all. Is this whom the spurs want to draft, someone who may not even be as good as the chumps on this list ?

The spurs do have a history of drafting foreign players. If the player is generational like Luka, I totally understand. If they are the MVP of their league I understand. I they just wow you at the combine and in personal workouts, I understand. Topic is none of those things. A number of Euro players get drafted . Some even have decent NBA careers, most dont and go back to Europe. Even injured, Topic may be worth drafting based on his potential, just not in the top 10. Will he be a star... very early but on first glance, probably not. Will he be a role player on some NBA team, possibly, just look at the list. Could he be a bust? That's also possible given his injury.

Conclusion. Definitely pass at 4, and pass at 8. There are other players who better fit our immediate needs. If the spurs are tanking again, I can see them taking Topic. I just hope they don't tank and don't draft Topic. I know this draft is a bit wonky but geez. Spurs, do your homework.

[Mr. Body]

Not counting Victor, the Spurs have only drafted two foreign players in the last nine years.

[The Truth #6]

Not counting Victor, the Spurs have only drafted two foreign players in the last nine years.

It's a good point. From what I can tell,Brian Wright is not as enamored with European players.

[jjspur]

Not counting Victor, the Spurs have only drafted two foreign players in the last nine years.

True, but Luka was a major dud and the jury is still out on G-league Siddy. If you go just a bit bit further back there are a number of foreign born players that the spurs drafted. Again it's just their history, can't change that. The players may be long gone, but the people that drafted them may not. Nothing against drafting a foreign player, but when you draft any player in the top 10, you try to draft the best player, foreign born or not.

[Mr. Body]

True, but Luka was a major dud and the jury is still out on G-league Siddy. If you go just a bit bit further back there are a number of foreign born players that the spurs drafted. Again it's just their history, can't change that. The players may be long gone, but the people that drafted them may not. Nothing against drafting a foreign player, but when you draft any player in the top 10, you try to draft the best player, foreign born or not.

How those players did isn't the point. The question is whether the Spurs draft a lot of foreign players. The answer, right now, is "No."

[jjspur]

How those players did isn't the point. The question is whether the Spurs draft a lot of foreign players. The answer, right now, is "No."

The answer may be no "right now", but in a few weeks, the new answer could be yes and that would change the stats a bit. Then the question then really becomes did the team make the right choice. Once it happens, its history. We can discuss whether it was 3 in the last 9 years which is true or 3 in the last 5 years which is also true - but that's just a silly statistic which could easily change.

As fans, we all want the spurs to just make a good choice - its an important start on the pathway to a winning future. We want them to choose players that can be successful and are less likely to flame out, American or foreign. We'll see in a few weeks.

[MultiTroll]

Stop fluffing this guy. :lol

Easy pass.

[poopbox]

Not a fan but I got a bad gut feeling that if one of Castle or Dilli is not there, Topic will be a Spur, if for no other reason he starts off a stealth tank in the 2025 draft where the Spurs will again have at least 2 pics

[Uriel]

Not counting Victor, the Spurs have only drafted two foreign players in the last nine years.
Part of that, I think, is because prior to being hired by the Spurs, Wright was the head of college scouting for the Pistons, so he knows that world much better. On the other hand, RC, as we know, specialized in scouting in Europe.

Another reason has to do with us picking higher in the draft in recent years. Back then, our modus operandi was to find diamonds in the rough late in the draft, which going to Europe was good for. But when you’re constantly picking in the lottery, it’s just easier to stick with domestic players, who are more accessible and get more local exposure.

[Mr. Body]

Part of that, I think, is because prior to being hired by the Spurs, Wright was the head of college scouting for the Pistons, so he knows that world much better. On the other hand, RC, as we know, specialized in scouting in Europe.

Another reason has to do with us picking higher in the draft in recent years. Back then, our modus operandi was to find diamonds in the rough late in the draft, which going to Europe was good for. But when you’re constantly picking in the lottery, it’s just easier to stick with domestic players, who are more accessible and get more local exposure.

Your second point would be close to my guess. The Spurs used to try to get a march on other teams by picking foreign players that were overlooked. Once teams started scouting internationally much more, those supposed gems were rising on the boards year over year. Like Mahinmi. I don't remember his stats or production at time of draft, but nowadays a very young player with his athletic profile might be considered in the late lottery.

And so, the NBA started chasing a different sort of player, causing the Spurs to shift back into the domestic player market. I mean, much of this is just happenstance. But I do think the way the league was changing according to international players had a part. Ousmane Dieng wouldn't have been a lottery pick ten years ago.

[exstatic]

Your second point would be close to my guess. The Spurs used to try to get a march on other teams by picking foreign players that were overlooked. Once teams started scouting internationally much more, those supposed gems were rising on the boards year over year. Like Mahinmi. I don't remember his stats or production at time of draft, but nowadays a very young player with his athletic profile might be considered in the late lottery.

And so, the NBA started chasing a different sort of player, causing the Spurs to shift back into the domestic player market. I mean, much of this is just happenstance. But I do think the way the league was changing according to international players had a part. Ousmane Dieng wouldn't have been a lottery pick ten years ago.

He shouldn’t have been when he was selected. He’s so bad that paying 3 FRPs for the pick absolutely cancels out the Jalen Williams hit late in the first, and makes it a wash.

[JPB]

Jokic played in the Serbian and Adriatic leagues, so yeah, it kinda is. If you’re 17/18 playing well and getting minutes (pretty rare) in a grown ass man’s league over across the pond, you’re something different.

European leagues have very different levels. The best players (euros, US or wordlwide) naturally go and play where the money is... Spain, Turkey (and until recently Russia), then Grece, France, Italy, Germany... ABA League is a minor league that doesn't pay as much. Top down to mid players don't go play there. The top team is the Red star belgrad who is OK and concentrates the bet players of the ABA League (they were 11-23 in euroleague this year) but behind the average level is pretty poor compared to bigger leagues.

[Mr. Body]

The local YMCA is a grown man league. Stop saying grown man league like it means anything. G League is a grown man league and it's proven to be really shitty for young players because it's a bullshit league with no coaching. NBL turns out bad NBA players despite being a brien man league. It means nothing.

[JPB]

It’d be disappointing at draft night to pick Topić who might not be playing the entire season. But If Spurs draft him at 8, it could be because they know more about the player Topic would become down the line, having the highest ceiling. The Spurs are not contending next season. So an injured Topic wouldn’t make a big difference in drafting him.

Sure but that's still one year lost in his development if you want to make him your future starting PG and Wemby waiting for a buddy to play or improve with...

And I value and care more about Wemby's career and development (every year of Vic's career should be sanctified, worshipped and glorified...). Topic is not a franchise player, is it worth losing on year waiting for him while you have victor on your team? Not like Topic was a no brainer of a pick and a surefire future star either. If he busts, after a year out, that makes the pick even more damaging. and you still don't have your future PG.

Anyway, I personally don't believe spurs are on Topic.

[exstatic]

The local YMCA is a grown man league. Stop saying grown man league like it means anything. G League is a grown man league and it's proven to be really shitty for young players because it's a bullshit league with no coaching. NBL turns out bad NBA players despite being a brien man league. It means nothing.

Grown man’s league in Europe means the senior team, not the youth team. You can look at stats from both, but senior team stats bear much more weight. Most senior teams don’t play 17/18 year olds anything other than spot minutes, like a late season MLB call up. If they’re playing big minutes and doing well, take notice.

[Mr. Body]

Sure but that's still one year lost in his development if you want to make him your future starting PG and Wemby waiting for a buddy to play or improve with...

And I value and care more about Wemby's career and development (every year of Vic's career should be sanctified, worshipped and glorified...). Topic is not a franchise player, is it worth losing on year waiting for him while you have victor on your team? Not like Topic was a no brainer of a pick and a surefire future star either.

Anyway, I personally don't believe spurs are on Topic.

I keep saying that Topic isn't much different than Tre Jones. And I mean it. Topic may be faster, he may have some better vision, but their skill set is practically the same and Jones is the better defender.

When I'm looking at candidates I'm looking at categories of skills and what they do. I don't know that Topic changes much.

[Strategic]

Draft this guy and next year would have to draft like he doesn’t exist because they won’t know if he’ll ever be a player. Gives me a headache just thinking about it.

[exstatic]

Draft this guy and next year would have to draft like he doesn’t exist because they won’t know if he’ll ever be a player. Gives me a headache just thinking about it.

That can be said about every player in this draft, and damn near every player in every draft.

[rascal]

Topic is the perfect pick if the spurs want to tank another year for a top pick in 25.

[Extra Stout]

So Topic has that “it” that true pure point guards have, the passing, the court vision, the processing speed, and he has some size, but otherwise his basketball skills are limited and his athleticism is poor. He has succeeded against minus competition. His sample size against better competition is minuscule but wasn’t great.

It also appears that his agent has been heavily manipulating the situation to hide his red flags and flaws, which is in and of itself a red flag.

I understand what the appeal is, on paper at least (pure point guard with size), but nothing about Topic gives me a good feeling.

[JuneJive]

His agent is a famous one with lots of clients.
Of course he's gonna downplay the significance of the injuries and whatnot, but I wouldn't categorize that as a red flag when deciding whether to draft him or not.

Topic's father is a former player, pretty well known.
That in itself could be a green flag.

[exstatic]

So Topic has that “it” that true pure point guards have, the passing, the court vision, the processing speed, and he has some size, but otherwise his basketball skills are limited and his athleticism is poor. He has succeeded against minus competition. His sample size against better competition is minuscule but wasn’t great.

It also appears that his agent has been heavily manipulating the situation to hide his red flags and flaws, which is in and of itself a red flag.

I understand what the appeal is, on paper at least (pure point guard with size), but nothing about Topic gives me a good feeling.

There’s a saying common among pro players and coaches that only God makes PGs, and he’s made one here. Those things you posted that I bolded cannot be taught. NBA teams have been trying for decades to convert short SGs to PGs, and it fails every time.

[Strategic]

That can be said about every player in this draft, and damn near every player in every draft.
True enough, but if you draft a healthy player at least you have the ability to get some in game evaluation during the year. Topic will still be a complete mystery

[John B]

Sure but that's still one year lost in his development if you want to make him your future starting PG and Wemby waiting for a buddy to play or improve with...

And I value and care more about Wemby's career and development (every year of Vic's career should be sanctified, worshipped and glorified...). Topic is not a franchise player, is it worth losing on year waiting for him while you have victor on your team? Not like Topic was a no brainer of a pick and a surefire future star either. If he busts, after a year out, that makes the pick even more damaging. and you still don't have your future PG.

Anyway, I personally don't believe spurs are on Topic.

The kid is 18. And it’s not as if he starts if he’s healthy. I’m sure Pop would have Tre still start until the position is taken from him. I’d be okay to put Topić in a sideline for a year, IF he has that “it” of becoming the future starting PG. I have a feeling Topić will be another Sengun that teams would pass up on. And Spurs should scoop him at 8th if he’s available.

[JPB]

That can be said about every player in this draft, and damn near every player in every draft.

His point was you would have to draft next year without having one year to evaluate Topic and how it could impact your 2025 choice.

[R. DeMurre]

It'd be a cool story arc if Topic went from the guy the Spurs had hoped to get with a top pick to the second player they get, at 8, after seeing his stock drop. I still like the guy-- he's still the player that dominated everyone his own age a year ago at the U18 and ANGT tournaments, gets into the paint at will, and is a savant passer-- and I think some of the "backlash" is a bit exaggerated. I didn't buy the 7' wingspan story early on after watching tape, so for me the disappointing measurement doesn't weigh much. If he'd been 6'4" with a 6'5" wingspan the whole time, I don't think anyone would've batted an eye, so now that he's 6'6" with a 6'5.5" wingspan he's still to me a PG with perfectly fine size.

Just in terms of storylines, it has been interesting to watch him go from early darling of the draft to later villain, though I think almost all of the criticisms have to go to his agent rather than to him as a teenaged prospect. I'd be totally happy if he kills it in the G League for a few months while the Spurs develop their #4 guy.

[ambchang]

I’m likely in the minority but based on the highlights I saw (admittedly not much) I don’t see some kind of passing wizard. Most of the stuff are basic drive and kicks.

[itzsoweezee]

I’m likely in the minority but based on the highlights I saw (admittedly not much) I don’t see some kind of passing wizard. Most of the stuff are basic drive and kicks.

Agreed. I watched more than an hour’s worth of his supposed highlights and saw nothing but pedestrian ass basketball from him.

[CGD]

He’ll be the pick at 8. The RC wing of the Spurs FO wont be able to help themselves. At 8, I wouldn’t mind it honestly but not at 4.

[Mr. Body]

I’m likely in the minority but based on the highlights I saw (admittedly not much) I don’t see some kind of passing wizard. Most of the stuff are basic drive and kicks.

Yep. It's the same stuff Reed and Rob are doing. They're good passes, but nothing a level above them.

[sfernald]

Have a strong feeling he’s gonna end up a spur! Don’t be sad, it’s coming soon!

[R. DeMurre]

Yep. It's the same stuff Reed and Rob are doing. They're good passes, but nothing a level above them.

LeBowen posted these numbers in the Reed Sheppard thread:

Shots at the Rim for each

Collier 154 (in 27 games)
Castle 149 (34 games)
Topic 121 (in 12 games)
Dillingham 113 (in 34 games)
Sheppard 60 (in 33 games)





If you extrapolate Topic's shots at the rim out to 34 games, that would be 343-- which would be roughly equivalent to the combined totals of Dillingham + Sheppard + Collier. I think that's what potentially makes Topic an offensive weapon, and the assists would come from constantly drawing the defense in away from shooters.

[LeBowen]

LeBowen posted these numbers in the Reed Sheppard thread:

Shots at the Rim for each

Collier 154 (in 27 games)
Castle 149 (34 games)
Topic 121 (in 12 games)
Dillingham 113 (in 34 games)
Sheppard 60 (in 33 games)





If you extrapolate Topic's shots at the rim out to 34 games, that would be 343-- which would be roughly equivalent to the combined totals of Dillingham + Sheppard + Collier. I think that's what potentially makes Topic an offensive weapon, and the assists would come from constantly drawing the defense in away from shooters.

Topic definitely has the best touch around the rim, but ABA league isn't much better than NCAA.
Without reliable mid-range pull up, he wouldn't be a threat in the NBA.

The only way I could see Topic being picked is with that NOLA #21 they're rumored to trade for second rounders.
Move up a bit with #21 and #35 and have Topic redshirt the season.
But then again, we get at least two more picks next year, it's way too many rookies.

Topic at #8 would be a disaster, tbh.

[SouthernFryd]

A guard who's main offense is driving to the basket...that has bad knees?

Uh...this is a no-brainer.

[R. DeMurre]

Topic definitely has the best touch around the rim, but ABA league isn't much better than NCAA.
Without reliable mid-range pull up, he wouldn't be a threat in the NBA.



I don't get this analogy. If the ABA is even a hair better than the NCAA, why would a 17/18 year old's results be somehow null & void there, while an 18 year old's results in the NCAA aren't?
I think Topic never showed a mid-range there because he didn't need it, as he was attacking the rim with extraordinary success and leading his team in assists. I don't see why some would completely dismiss the idea of a player with great touch and a great FT% eventually showing a mid-range, but at the same time feel relatively confident that Castle or Buzelis or Holland might eventually develop a 3 pt shot. Strictly from a betting position, I'd say Topic's chances are better.

[LeBowen]

I don't get this analogy. If the ABA is even a hair better than the NCAA, why would a 17/18 year old's results be somehow null & void there, while an 18 year old's results in the NCAA aren't?


His results aren't null and void, but there's a huge gap between ABA and Euroleague.
Weaker European leagues are all about high IQ players that play the right way, but most of them have no athleticism whatsoever and are stuck on that level because of it.
Because of that, rim protection isn't great. There's no denying that Topic has a great touch, but if you look at any of his videos, most of the layups he gets are a joke.
I'd say that team defense is definitely better in ABA than NCAA, but NCAA has way more actual rim protectors you need to finish over.


I think Topic never showed a mid-range there because he didn't need it, as he was attacking the rim with extraordinary success. I don't get why some would completely dismiss the idea of a player with great touch and a great FT% eventually showing a mid-range,

Fair point.
I actually think he'll be a way better shooter in his rookie year after he redshirts his actual rookie year.
Kind of how DJ took a massive leap after tearing his ACL.


but at the same time feel relatively confident that Castle or Buzelis or Holland might eventually develop a 3 pt shot. Strictly from a betting position, I'd say Topic's chances are better.

I'm probably the biggest Ignite hater in here, I don't want either of those two.
I'm not confident in Castle's shot, but he looks like a sure thing on defense and has everything else except shooting on at least a solid level.
Topic would have to develop both his shot and defense, while having huge red flag because of his knee.

As I said a few times, it should be Risacher/Castle/Sheppard at #4 and then a high upside swing at #8. I'd rather have Dillingham than Topic, but if PATFO is really impressed with this kid, I hope they're right.
It's just that a redshirt rookie doesn't fit with at least two more FRPs next year. Especially since we need all the help we can get right now.

[R. DeMurre]

Yeah, when people were skeptical about the Thompson twins last year I understood the questions, but I also pointed out that at least they did what they were supposed to do and led their team to a 21-1 record iirc. They were supposed to win against their level of competition, and they did. Ignite was 2-32 this year and were horrendously bad with two supposed lottery pics.

[scottspurs]

According to the latest ESPN mock Topic has meetings with Portland, San Antonio, Memphis and Utah

[rascal]

Spurs are still considering drafting him.

[Dejounte]

Spurs are still considering drafting him.

No shit, captain obvious

[R. DeMurre]

I'm still mystified by the frequent references to his 6'5.5" wingspan being a deal breaker, only to be followed by a glowing endorsements of Dillingham, McCain, or Sheppard-- all of whom have wingspans under 6'4". This seems outside the realm of objective analysis, and more of an "I'm-mad-at-his-agent-because-he-circulated-a-fake-story-that-i-believed" response. The strength and conditioning coach at Kentucky posted last August that Dillingham had added "17 lbs of muscle" and was at 172 lbs... and then he weighed in at 164 at the combine, nine months later.

[Obstructed_View]

Maybe he can block shots with his long fucking neck. He's the anti-dejuan.

[rascal]

No shit, captain obvious

timvp wrote the spurs had little interest in Topic.

"From everything I’ve heard, the Spurs were never looking to draft Topic."

[BatManu20]

I'm still mystified by the frequent references to his 6'5.5" wingspan being a deal breaker, only to be followed by a glowing endorsements of Dillingham, McCain, or Sheppard-- all of whom have wingspans under 6'4". This seems outside the realm of objective analysis, and more of an "I'm-mad-at-his-agent-because-he-circulated-a-fake-story-that-i-believed" response. The strength and conditioning coach at Kentucky posted last August that Dillingham had added "17 lbs of muscle" and was at 172 lbs... and then he weighed in at 164 at the combine, nine months later.

I tend to agree, though the other 3 players you mentioned are all knock-down shooters, which is the major difference.

I see Topic compared to Dragic quite a bit which I think is a solid comparison, though Dragic was a better shooter at 18 than Topic is. Either way, Dragic was 6'4 with a 6'6.5 wingspan and he was a really good offensive player for quite a few years in the league. Made a couple All-Star Teams as a reserve and had a long, successful career in the league playing into his mid-30's.

Obviously Topic is never going to be a great defender, just like Dragic wasn't. But if you were to surround him with good defenders + Wemby waiting around the rim, it becomes much less of an issue.

[BatManu20]

timvp wrote the spurs had little interest in Topic.

"From everything I’ve heard, the Spurs were never looking to draft Topic."

They were interested enough to ask for his medicals. I guarantee they have some level of interest in the 18 year-old 6'6 euro-PG who happens to play their biggest position of need. Even if they don't draft him, there's definitely some interest there imo.

[exstatic]

timvp wrote the spurs had little interest in Topic.

"From everything I’ve heard, the Spurs were never looking to draft Topic."

In 2011, they didn’t interview or work out Kawhi. Zero contact, although they did spy on him shooting in the gym waiting for an interview with someone else.

[baseline bum]

I'm still mystified by the frequent references to his 6'5.5" wingspan being a deal breaker, only to be followed by a glowing endorsements of Dillingham, McCain, or Sheppard-- all of whom have wingspans under 6'4". This seems outside the realm of objective analysis, and more of an "I'm-mad-at-his-agent-because-he-circulated-a-fake-story-that-i-believed" response. The strength and conditioning coach at Kentucky posted last August that Dillingham had added "17 lbs of muscle" and was at 172 lbs... and then he weighed in at 164 at the combine, nine months later.

Dillingham and Sheppard can shoot the three, Dillingham also has an in between game, while Topic is a stubby armed guy who can only score at the rim and only against ABA competition and now we know why with those measurements.

[LeBowen]

Dillingham and Sheppard can shoot the three, Dillingham also has an in between game, while Topic is a stubby armed guy who can only score at the rim and only against ABA competition and now we know why with those measurements.

Topic will most likely redsihrt his rookie year, which isn't a problem in itself.
Would maybe even help him. Similar how DJ was a noticably improved shooter after his injury. Had plenty of time to put in work.

But having two guaranteed FRPs next year and having Topic as a third rookie at the point when we're starting to compete would be questionable.
Especially since integrating a rookie point guard is really difficult when you're trying to win.
I'd argue that even having two rookies in 25-26 season is too many unless at least one is NBA ready right away.

There are just way too many red flags to pick him unless they think he's the next all-time great passer, because he surely doesn't have superstar potential in any other area.
If he was a domestic prospect, noone would even mention him.
Pendulum somewhat swung the other way and international prospects are getting somewhat overrated.

[Mr. Body]

What gets me about Topic, especially against comps to Dragic and others, is that he seems to be a straight-ahead, bursty driver. I don't see the shiftiness, the hesitations, the manipulative dribbles like hostage dribbles or use of space in the lane. It's all just blasting past some earthbound statue for a layup and then another. I can't say he has no ability to do those things, but the competition is so lousy that's all he does.

In the NBA, when teams know what they're doing, they'll just sag off him and that's it. That's the perfect gameplan. Drop down five feet and give him whatever shot he wants.

He's supposed to be this master playmaker and passer but he seems like a like one-trick pony. So either the miserable state of his opponents is hiding something or he doesn't have that something.

[spurraider21]

What gets me about Topic, especially against comps to Dragic and others, is that he seems to be a straight-ahead, bursty driver. I don't see the shiftiness, the hesitations, the manipulative dribbles like hostage dribbles or use of space in the lane. It's all just blasting past some earthbound statue for a layup and then another. I can't say he has no ability to do those things, but the competition is so lousy that's all he does.

In the NBA, when teams know what they're doing, they'll just sag off him and that's it. That's the perfect gameplan. Drop down five feet and give him whatever shot he wants.

He's supposed to be this master playmaker and passer but he seems like a like one-trick pony. So either the miserable state of his opponents is hiding something or he doesn't have that something.
yeah im not sure his actual ball-handling skills are remarkable, but i do think his passing is top notch in the draft. he absolutely whips cross court, skip passes. quite impressive

[Ariel]

Dillingham and Sheppard can shoot the three, Dillingham also has an in between game, while Topic is a stubby armed guy who can only score at the rim and only against ABA competition and now we know why with those measurements.
That's unfairly harsh. a 6'5.5" wingspan still ranks 2nd among all first round PG prospects, behind Carrington. It just stands out because it's (slightly) negative relative to his height (6'5.75"). At the youth levels he was an MVP of the U18 European Championship, and at the professional level he could only score against the opposition he played against, it wasn't that much worse than a lot of other prospects. I do believe there are a lot of questions to be answered with Topic, but we're acting like they were settled when that's far from the case. His shot as as much of a chance if not better than most projects including Salaun, he hasn't played against real athletic rim protectors but neither have many others, but he can get to the rim at will and has really good court vision. He's not a tier below than a lot of prospects that are being talked about and isn't a lock to be a bust. I never had him at the top of my board and prefer other options, but I'll be curious to follow his progress.

[Mr. Body]

yeah im not sure his actual ball-handling skills are remarkable, but i do think his passing is top notch in the draft. he absolutely whips cross court, skip passes. quite impressive

They are good, but also not different from what Sheppard, Dillingham, or Carrington can do?

[spurraider21]

They are good, but also not different from what Sheppard, Dillingham, or Carrington can do?
yeah, i think purely from a vision/passing/anticipation standpoint his ability stands out in the class

the one thing sheppard probably does best is quick, long outlet passes, which is something our team clearly tried to do a lot last year, largely leading to turnovers

im not sure if dilly is the best technical passer but his quickness and handling creates the most lob opportunities. as we know, playmaking is more than just executing passes, its creating the openings for them

[baseline bum]

That's unfairly harsh. a 6'5.5" wingspan still ranks 2nd among all first round PG prospects, behind Carrington. It just stands out because it's (slightly) negative relative to his height (6'5.75"). At the youth levels he was an MVP of the U18 European Championship, and at the professional level he could only score against the opposition he played against, it wasn't that much worse than a lot of other prospects. I do believe there are a lot of questions to be answered with Topic, but we're acting like they were settled when that's far from the case. His shot as as much of a chance if not better than most projects including Salaun, he hasn't played against real athletic rim protectors but neither have many others, but he can get to the rim at will and has really good court vision. He's not a tier below than a lot of prospects that are being talked about and isn't a lock to be a bust. I never had him at the top of my board and prefer other options, but I'll be curious to follow his progress.

He looked like crap in his two Euroleague games and the negative wingspan seems like it could explain why when the level of competition went up. Don't want him unless they can get him super cheap, like trading some second rounders to the Pelicans for pick #21 and then take him there if he's on the board still.

[Ariel]

He looked like crap in his two Euroleague games and the negative wingspan seems like it could explain why when the level of competition went up. Don't want him unless they can get him super cheap, like trading some second rounders to the Pelicans for pick #21 and then take him there if he's on the board still.
He played 30' in Euroleague and shot 3/6 from 2 and 0/2 from 3, with 7 assists, 3 reb., 1 steal, 2 TO. That's not terrible for an 18 y.o. who just joined a high level team. And again, the negative wingspan is still the 2nd highest among top rated PGs, he's the next to last guy it should be used against. It's fair not to want him, but we're coming up with made up reasons to do so.

[R. DeMurre]

He looked like crap in his two Euroleague games and the negative wingspan seems like it could explain why when the level of competition went up. Don't want him unless they can get him super cheap, like trading some second rounders to the Pelicans for pick #21 and then take him there if he's on the board still.

You're talking about a total sample size of 30 minutes. I get that you don't like him, but the amount of weight you're giving those 30 minutes seems disproportionate, especially compared to the dominance he showed at the U18 and ANGT tournaments, where it was clear he was far ahead of everyone in his age group. His per 36 numbers for that tiny sample size are 8.1 pts, 8.1 assists (2.3 TOs), 3.5 rebounds, 50% 2ptFG%. So he scored less and registered more assists playing with the older guys for 2 games of about 15 minutes apiece.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/international/teams/red-star/2024.html

[rascal]

Topic has a WNBA below the rim layup city game. Boring

Let's get some exciting athletic players on the spurs and win that way.

[Biggems]

Topic could be the NBA version of Merton Hanks...giraffe lookin SOB

[rascal]

That's unfairly harsh. a 6'5.5" wingspan still ranks 2nd among all first round PG prospects, behind Carrington. It just stands out because it's (slightly) negative relative to his height (6'5.75"). At the youth levels he was an MVP of the U18 European Championship, and at the professional level he could only score against the opposition he played against, it wasn't that much worse than a lot of other prospects. I do believe there are a lot of questions to be answered with Topic, but we're acting like they were settled when that's far from the case. His shot as as much of a chance if not better than most projects including Salaun, he hasn't played against real athletic rim protectors but neither have many others, but he can get to the rim at will and has really good court vision. He's not a tier below than a lot of prospects that are being talked about and isn't a lock to be a bust. I never had him at the top of my board and prefer other options, but I'll be curious to follow his progress.

Castle has a 6' 9 " wingspan.

[Ariel]

Castle has a 6' 9 " wingspan.
Castle isn't a PG in my book, at least not right now. It may change in the future though, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

[rascal]

That's unfairly harsh. a 6'5.5" wingspan still ranks 2nd among all first round PG prospects, behind Carrington. It just stands out because it's (slightly) negative relative to his height (6'5.75"). At the youth levels he was an MVP of the U18 European Championship, and at the professional level he could only score against the opposition he played against, it wasn't that much worse than a lot of other prospects. I do believe there are a lot of questions to be answered with Topic, but we're acting like they were settled when that's far from the case. His shot as as much of a chance if not better than most projects including Salaun, he hasn't played against real athletic rim protectors but neither have many others, but he can get to the rim at will and has really good court vision. He's not a tier below than a lot of prospects that are being talked about and isn't a lock to be a bust. I never had him at the top of my board and prefer other options, but I'll be curious to follow his progress.

You must like WNBA games because you want a player whose game is WNBA.

[rascal]

Castle isn't a PG in my book, at least not right now. It may change in the future though, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

I don't care about your book! Castle is a pg

[Ariel]

You must like WNBA games because you want a player whose game is WNBA.
Not really, but I might take Caitlin Clarke over Shaedon Sharpe though.