Who are we tanking for?

[vy65]

Not to toot my own horn, but an undercurrent in several threads has been the merits of "tanking" in 2025 to secure a top pick in the "Cooper Flagg" sweepstakes. So, that begs the question of, what are the chances that blowing the 2024-2025 season actually garners a Robin to Wemby's Batman.

As it stands right now, with much of free agency resolved, the following teams could be said to be "better" in the tanking sweepstakes:

1. Brooklyn
2. Utah
3. Washington
4. Detroit
5. Portland
6. Chicago
7. Charlotte

That leaves us in a tier with Toronto and Atlanta for 8, 9, and 10. And, that is to say nothing about injuries derailing the Clippers, Warriors, or Lakers, making them fall into the remaining three slots of the top-ten. At its most charitable, meaning not even accounting for any of these possible risks, that leaves:

8. S/ATL
9. S/ATL
10. Toronto.

Assuming that scenario to be the most likely outcome, our 2025 odds would be as follows:

#8
Pick: (1) (2) (3) (4) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (Avg)
Odds: 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.2 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4. >0.0 7.0

#9
Pick: (1) (2) (3) (4) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (Avg)
Odds: 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 50.7 25.9 3.0. 0.1 >0.0 8.0

Those are the odds. 6% and 4.5% respectively. I know it's too early to tell, but just going off of Tankathon, the projected #7 and #8 picks (assuming the averages hold out) are Khaman Maluch and Tre Johnson. Are either of those two vaunting us into contention at the start of 2025-2026? Tankathon has us taking Liam McNeely at 9 and Egor Demin at 10. Again, who here wants to articulate how any (or a combination) of these 4 will vaunt us into perennial title contention within the next 3-5 years?

Again, I understand it's too early to tell. But it's not too early to evaluate the team's strategy going into the 2024-2025 season. There has been no meaningful move to get us into the top 5 worse teams (e.g., trade Vassell/Sochan/Keldon for future draft capital). By all appearances, they're trying to improve by drafting Castle and signing CP3. So, again, what is it that we're doing as we head into next season?

I get that there is a lot of prognostication in this exercise, and that there is a meaningful chance this thread is thrown around next year as proof that "the tank worked." But there is a greater probability that these numbers hold out, and we're looking at two people no one has ever heard of as being the help Wemby needs. So again, who are we tanking for?

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Spurs fans want to tank in year 2 of Wemby. Cowards.

[scott]

Indeed. For as deep as next year's class seems to have the potential to be - has there ever been a draft class 10 players deep? I know that you can find HOFs anywhere in the draft... but then luck and scouting exceptionalism come into play. I can't recall any draft that had 10 guys who were "obvious" picks.

[CGD]

You are tanking for the #2, ideally a wing. The Jason Tatum to the Jaylon Brown.

You hope Castle exceeds your wildest expectations, but everyone else on the current roster, except for Devin (a good #3), is a role player. I love Devin, but eventually he’ll move on too.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Your schtick gets old. Do you yell at your wife if dinner is 10 minutes late? They said they were going to focus on the 2025 draft at the end of last year. An unwarranted sense of urgency is how you make bad trades. Ask Atlanta. Better yet go root for Atlanta and spare us your mantra.

[vy65]

You are tanking for the #2, ideally a wing. The Jason Tatum to the Jaylon Brown.

You hope Castle exceeds your wildest expectations, but everyone else on the current roster, except for Devin (a good #3), is a role player. I love Devin, but eventually he’ll move on too.

Who is the #2? Please tell me their name, and what the front office is doing to maximize the possibility of landing them.

Otherwise, the strategy you've articulated is the same as the guy who does a bunch of blow and throws 10k on red at the roulette table.

[CGD]

Spurs fans want to tank in year 2 of Wemby. Cowards.

Not so much tanking, but taking stock of where you are by Feb and choosing a path. The west is gonna be good again, so even if the spurs try their very best, they may not be near the top. Alternatively, if they exceed expectations, it’s at that point that a “go for it” trade might make sense.

[timtonymanu]

It's the Spurs fan copium for when we are a terrible team again next season. Then we will trade our 2025 lottery pick for the 2044 NBA draft FRP.

[vy65]

Your schtick gets old. Do you yell at your wife if dinner is 10 minutes late? They said they were going to focus on the 2025 draft at the end of last year. An unwarranted sense of urgency is how you make bad trades. Ask Atlanta. Better yet go root for Atlanta and spare us your mantra.

This is a boomer response. "Stop complaining" isn't meaningful. It's you trying to be heard while having nothing to say. Do better.

[CGD]

Who is the #2? Please tell me their name, and what the front office is doing to maximize the possibility of landing them.

Otherwise, the strategy you've articulated is the same as the guy who does a bunch of blow and throws 10k on red at the roulette table.

I mean, yeah, you just described the draft. There are no sure things. Even a Wemby or LBJ or Duncan can get hurt. Just ask Portland.

When you suck, you want as many chances at it. We still suck, sorry to break it to you.

[mudyez]

If there is a sure fire no1 star, I trust our luck to pick first again. (as long, as one of the picks ends up in the lottery)

[CGD]

Ah, I see this is a back door Laurie Markenen thread. Shame on me for taking the bait.

[vy65]

I mean, yeah, you just described the draft. There are no sure things. Even a Wemby or LBJ or Duncan can get hurt. Just ask Portland.

When you suck, you want as many chances at it. We still suck, sorry to break it to you.

We do suck, but not enough for it to matter. Sorry to break it to you.

[buttsR4rebounding]

This is a boomer response. "Stop complaining" isn't meaningful. It's you trying to be heard while having nothing to say. Do better.

Please. 1. I stated they indicated 2025 was their plan all along. 2. I stated unwarranted urgency is how you make bad trades. You are the one whining like a little bitch. Who needs to do better? Maybe you can just delay your response until 2031..

[Spurs Homer]

We tanked to have the privilege of throwing away the #8 pick!

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Not so much tanking, but taking stock of where you are by Feb and choosing a path. The west is gonna be good again, so even if the spurs try their very best, they may not be near the top. Alternatively, if they exceed expectations, it’s at that point that a “go for it” trade might make sense.

Or they could add talent now in an effort to get the best chance at a playoff series and the experience.

Both conferences are top heavy but there are soft middles as well.

The OP's justification is he doesn't understand what they are doing as his excuse. You guys are planning scared.

[baseline bum]

As it stands right now, with much of free agency resolved, the following teams could be said to be "better" in the tanking sweepstakes:

1. Brooklyn
2. Utah
3. Washington
4. Detroit
5. Portland
6. Chicago
7. Charlotte

That leaves us in a tier with Toronto and Atlanta for 8, 9, and 10. And, that is to say nothing about injuries derailing the Clippers, Warriors, or Lakers, making them fall into the remaining three slots of the top-ten. At its most charitable, meaning not even accounting for any of these possible risks, that leaves:

8. S/ATL
9. S/ATL
10. Toronto.

Assuming that scenario to be the most likely outcome, our 2025 odds would be as follows:

#8
Pick: (1) (2) (3) (4) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (Avg)
Odds: 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.2 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4. >0.0 7.0

#9
Pick: (1) (2) (3) (4) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (Avg)
Odds: 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 50.7 25.9 3.0. 0.1 >0.0 8.0


I think the most important thing to consider is the odds of moving into the top 4. Your ninth worst record for the Spurs projection seems pretty reasonable without any major moves, which gives you a 20.2% chance of advancing to the high end talent of Flagg, Ace Bailey, Nolan Traore, and Dylan Harper (of course that'll change but guys like Gonazles and Edgecombe look like they have the chance to become the level of prospect those four are projected at now). So yeah that's way too low of odds of advancing to advocate for a soft tank at the expense of a Markannen trade. At the same time I really don't want to move Atlanta's 2025 nor the Spurs 2025, mainly because this team needs talent ASAP and the Spurs 2026 pick with an unprotected Atlanta swap and the Atlanta unprotected 2027 pick are good enough to be the centerpiece of a trade for Markannen since Trae is probably on the way out of Atlanta next summer. Especially factoring in the 2030 Spurs and 2031 Minnesota are picks that will have huge value for Ainge while the meat of their value came from the Dillingham trade so was cheap for the Spurs to acquire. I think those four and salary ballast to make the trade work are a great return for Ainge if he is looking to tank, so the Spurs can probably get it done with those assets if they're not on the retard soft tank train.

[baseline bum]

Your schtick gets old. Do you yell at your wife if dinner is 10 minutes late? They said they were going to focus on the 2025 draft at the end of last year. An unwarranted sense of urgency is how you make bad trades. Ask Atlanta. Better yet go root for Atlanta and spare us your mantra.

Are you worried that Wemby is fool's gold to build around like Trae turned out to be?

[stnick2261]

Indeed. For as deep as next year's class seems to have the potential to be - has there ever been a draft class 10 players deep? I know that you can find HOFs anywhere in the draft... but then luck and scouting exceptionalism come into play. I can't recall any draft that had 10 guys who were "obvious" picks.

2003 will finish with 4 Hall of Famers, and 9 total All-Stars and a long list of starters and rotation players. I don’t want to tank (I want ATL’s pick to jump to top 4), but our roster is very bare. We need to trade or add someone from free agency (like LM), but also fill the gaps from the next 2 drafts. Liam McNeeley would fill a gap perfectly and we wouldn’t need to tank for him. But adding Ace Bailey or Flagg, or any number of “lottery winning” picks could make us unstoppable (in conjunction with trade/FA)

Waiting to add LM in summer of 2025 would be ideal (in my opinion), but if we trade for him, we need to keep our ‘25 & ‘26 draft picks to fill our gaps.

[CGD]

Are you worried that Wemby is fool's gold to build around like Trae turned out to be?

Two things can be true: Wemby is legit and Wemby is not yet ready to take the leap at Year 2.

Watching the France game today, for example, it was a reminder that he still needs to build out his body (even though he crushed a bad Turkish side).

[vy65]

Please. 1. I stated they indicated 2025 was their plan all along. 2. I stated unwarranted urgency is how you make bad trades. You are the one whining like a little bitch. Who needs to do better? Maybe you can just delay your response until 2031..

I don't give a flying fuck as to what the stated plan is. The whole point of this thread is to look at what they're doing to execute on said plan. But keep it up with the boomerish "little bitch" bullshit. It's clear you have absolutely nothing to say.

[scott]

2003 will finish with 4 Hall of Famers, and 9 total All-Stars and a long list of starters and rotation players. I don’t want to tank (I want ATL’s pick to jump to top 4), but our roster is very bare. We need to trade or add someone from free agency (like LM), but also fill the gaps from the next 2 drafts. Liam McNeeley would fill a gap perfectly and we wouldn’t need to tank for him. But adding Ace Bailey or Flagg, or any number of “lottery winning” picks could make us unstoppable (in conjunction with trade/FA)

Don't disagree at all, and I actually want us to get LM without giving up our 2025 picks (even if they ended up #11 and #20, for example). Utah actually has 3 FRPs in 2025 already, so we are lucky in that they likely prioritize other picks anyway.

The 4 picks I'd offer them are: SA26 (w/ ATL swap), SA28 (with BOS swap), SA30 (with MIN/DAL swap), MIN31. I'd actually try and make 26 a swap if we could (I detailed in the LM thread).

Landing LM and adding two pieces in the 2025 draft is having our cake and eating it too.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

I don't give a flying fuck as to what the stated plan is. The whole point of this thread is to look at what they're doing to execute on said plan. But keep it up with the boomerish "little bitch" bullshit. It's clear you have absolutely nothing to say.

All you are saying is that you do not understand and using that as an excuse to be a coward.

[vy65]

I think the most important thing to consider is the odds of moving into the top 4. Your ninth worst record for the Spurs projection seems pretty reasonable without any major moves, which gives you a 20.2% chance of advancing to the high end talent of Flagg, Ace Bailey, Nolan Traore, and Dylan Harper (of course that'll change but guys like Gonazles and Edgecombe look like they have the chance to become the level of prospect those four are projected at now). So yeah that's way too low of odds of advancing to advocate for a soft tank at the expense of a Markannen trade. At the same time I really don't want to move Atlanta's 2025 nor the Spurs 2025, mainly because this team needs talent ASAP and the Spurs 2026 pick with an unprotected Atlanta swap and the Atlanta unprotected 2027 pick are good enough to be the centerpiece of a trade for Markannen since Trae is probably on the way out of Atlanta next summer. Especially factoring in the 2030 Spurs and 2031 Minnesota are picks that will have huge value for Ainge while the meat of their value came from the Dillingham trade so was cheap for the Spurs to acquire. I think those four and salary ballast to make the trade work are a great return for Ainge if he is looking to tank, so the Spurs can probably get it done with those assets if they're not on the retard soft tank train.

I'm not a stats guy, but can you say that we have a ~23.2% (add up the chances for each set of top 4 and divide by 2) chance of a top four pick, assuming we and ATL end up 9/10? What gets me about the "soft tank" is how the flattened odds would cut us out from picks 5-8, where there is going to be particular good value in this draft. We're going all or nothing on a 1 in 5 chance for Wemby's future. That's not inspiring at all.

[baseline bum]

Don't disagree at all, and I actually want us to get LM without giving up our 2025 picks (even if they ended up #11 and #20, for example). Utah actually has 3 FRPs in 2025 already, so we are lucky in that they likely prioritize other picks anyway.

The 4 picks I'd offer them are: SA26 (w/ ATL swap), SA28 (with BOS swap), SA30 (with MIN/DAL swap), MIN31. I'd actually try and make 26 a swap if we could (I detailed in the LM thread).

Landing LM and adding two pieces in the 2025 draft is having our cake and eating it too.

So would you consider 27 ATL off limits as a replacement for the 28+swap? I'd definitely offer your plan first but would pivot to my proposal if needed.

[baseline bum]

I'm not a stats guy, but can you say that we have a ~23.2% (add up the chances for each set of top 4 and divide by 2) chance of a top four pick, assuming we and ATL end up 9/10? What gets me about the "soft tank" is how the flattened odds would cut us out from picks 5-8, where there is going to be particular good value in this draft. We're going all or nothing on a 1 in 5 chance for Wemby's future. That's not inspiring at all.

Agreed, I'd love pick 5 or 6 but not doable with this team unless Wemby misses significant time.

[scott]

So would you consider 27 ATL off limits as a replacement for the 28+swap? I'd definitely offer your plan first but would pivot to my proposal if needed.

I'd be fine with that as well, I just do the 28 because it fits Utah's war chest better. Utah already has 4 picks in 2027. If it made the deal, I'd let Ainge pick which one he wants... I'm indifferent at that point because my core is going to be Wemby + Lauri + Devin + Castle + SA25 + ATL25.

[vy65]

All you are saying is that you do not understand and using that as an excuse to be a coward.

"Don't be a fagget" is an awesome take. Yes, bro, I lift.

[exstatic]

Not to toot my own horn, but an undercurrent in several threads has been the merits of "tanking" in 2025 to secure a top pick in the "Cooper Flagg" sweepstakes. So, that begs the question of, what are the chances that blowing the 2024-2025 season actually garners a Robin to Wemby's Batman.

As it stands right now, with much of free agency resolved, the following teams could be said to be "better" in the tanking sweepstakes:

1. Brooklyn
2. Utah
3. Washington
4. Detroit
5. Portland
6. Chicago
7. Charlotte

That leaves us in a tier with Toronto and Atlanta for 8, 9, and 10. And, that is to say nothing about injuries derailing the Clippers, Warriors, or Lakers, making them fall into the remaining three slots of the top-ten. At its most charitable, meaning not even accounting for any of these possible risks, that leaves:

8. S/ATL
9. S/ATL
10. Toronto.

Assuming that scenario to be the most likely outcome, our 2025 odds would be as follows:

#8
Pick: (1) (2) (3) (4) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (Avg)
Odds: 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.2 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4. >0.0 7.0

#9
Pick: (1) (2) (3) (4) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (Avg)
Odds: 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 50.7 25.9 3.0. 0.1 >0.0 8.0

Those are the odds. 6% and 4.5% respectively. I know it's too early to tell, but just going off of Tankathon, the projected #7 and #8 picks (assuming the averages hold out) are Khaman Maluch and Tre Johnson. Are either of those two vaunting us into contention at the start of 2025-2026? Tankathon has us taking Liam McNeely at 9 and Egor Demin at 10. Again, who here wants to articulate how any (or a combination) of these 4 will vaunt us into perennial title contention within the next 3-5 years?

Again, I understand it's too early to tell. But it's not too early to evaluate the team's strategy going into the 2024-2025 season. There has been no meaningful move to get us into the top 5 worse teams (e.g., trade Vassell/Sochan/Keldon for future draft capital). By all appearances, they're trying to improve by drafting Castle and signing CP3. So, again, what is it that we're doing as we head into next season?

I get that there is a lot of prognostication in this exercise, and that there is a meaningful chance this thread is thrown around next year as proof that "the tank worked." But there is a greater probability that these numbers hold out, and we're looking at two people no one has ever heard of as being the help Wemby needs. So again, who are we tanking for?

We don’t need to win ,just jump into the top 4. Anyone there will be nice.

Pick 8 26.2%
Pick 9 20.2%

So,unless we do something stupid like trade the ATL pick to Danny Ainge, we have a 46.4% chance of hitting a top 4 pick with one of our two FRPs in your scenario.

I’ve hesitated to bring this up, but we may need those odds to get another franchise player. It’s a pretty bleak outlook, but what if Wemby is Porzingis? Kristaps played 72 games as a rookie, 28 minutes per. Then, the wheels literally fell off. He’s never played 70 games since,hovering between 43 and 65 games, with a lost season sandwiched in there. Food for thought.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

"Don't be a fagget" is an awesome take. Yes, bro, I lift.

I am noticing a trend of insecure men. Chinook took the same line of distraction.

The cowardice has nothing to do with masculinity. Your response to not understanding is to give up and try to lose for draft picks.

It's cowardice in a man, woman, dog, or alien.

[vy65]

I am noticing a trend of insecure men. Chinook took the same line of distraction.

The cowardice has nothing to do with masculinity. Your response to not understanding is to give up and try to lose for draft picks.

It's cowardice in a man, woman, dog, or alien.

Bro, I'm talking about odds and draft strategy, not whatever lame Jordan B. Peterson men's awareness schtick you're on. /Unsubscribe

[vy65]

We don’t need to win ,just jump into the top 4. Anyone there will be nice.

Pick 8 26.2%
Pick 9 20.2%

So,unless we do something stupid like trade the ATL pick to Danny Ainge, we have a 46.4% chance of hitting a top 4 pick with one of our two FRPs in your scenario.

I’ve hesitated to bring this up, but we may need those odds to get another franchise player. It’s a pretty bleak outlook, but what if Wemby is Porzingis? Kristaps played 72 games as a rookie, 28 minutes per. Then, the wheels literally fell off. He’s never played 70 games since,hovering between 43 and 65 games, with a lost season sandwiched in there. Food for thought.

I'll leave it to better people than me, but I don't think odds stack like that. In other words, I think you equalize the odds between 26.2 and 20.2 (~23%) and that's what you have for a top four. Otherwise, you're picking 8th and worse. But I could be wrong about that. For the record, I'd be happy with an almost 50% chance of a top 4 pick.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Who is the #2? Please tell me their name, and what the front office is doing to maximize the possibility of landing them.

Otherwise, the strategy you've articulated is the same as the guy who does a bunch of blow and throws 10k on red at the roulette table.

You are just like Chinook with the bullshit distractions. You were also talking about how not understanding was your justification as you do here.

[vy65]

You are just like Chinook with the bullshit distractions. You were also talking about how not understanding was your justification as you do here.

:tu

Hope you're enjoying retirement.

[exstatic]

I'll leave it to better people than me, but I don't think odds stack like that. In other words, I think you equalize the odds between 26.2 and 20.2 (~23%) and that's what you have for a top four. Otherwise, you're picking 8th and worse. But I could be wrong about that. For the record, I'd be happy with an almost 50% chance of a top 4 pick.
No. We have all of our number combinations and all of Atlantas. Its additive.

[benefactor]

Just don't respond to that cocksucker. He's obviously koriwhat jr

[spurraider21]

Your schtick gets old. Do you yell at your wife if dinner is 10 minutes late? They said they were going to focus on the 2025 draft at the end of last year. An unwarranted sense of urgency is how you make bad trades. Ask Atlanta. Better yet go root for Atlanta and spare us your mantra.
link?

[spurraider21]

I am noticing a trend of insecure men. Chinook took the same line of distraction.

The cowardice has nothing to do with masculinity. Your response to not understanding is to give up and try to lose for draft picks.

It's cowardice in a man, woman, dog, or alien.
this is not profound

[vy65]

No. We have all of our number combinations and all of Atlantas. Its additive.

Again, I'm talking out my ass, but I don't think that's right. You can have two chances at a coin flip, each being 50% of being heads. What you're saying is that if you get two flips, you have a 100% chance of getting heads.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Just don't respond to that cocksucker. He's obviously koriwhat jr

Does this mean I cannot be a part of the clique?

[vy65]

Wilt Chamberlain cries at the sacrifice of our lord and savior Jesus Christ. All while getting herpes from bedding 100 women.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

this is not profound

you understand. it is an individual act of cowardice.

[exstatic]

Again, I'm talking out my ass, but I don't think that's right. You can have two chances at a coin flip, each being 50% of being heads. What you're saying is that if you get two flips, you have a 100% chance of getting heads.

Coin flip is a bad analogy. More like a lottery ticket. If you buy one number, you have a 1 in 25 million chance to win the Texas lottery. If you buy a second ticket in the same drawing, you have a 2 in 25 million chance to win the Texas lottery. We have two tickets, and the odds are much better.

[vy65]

Coin flip is a bad analogy. More like a lottery ticket. If you buy one number, you have a 1 in 25 million chance to win the Texas lottery. If you buy a second ticket in the same drawing, you have a 2 in 25 million chance to win the Texas lottery. We have two tickets, and the odds are much better.

That's incorrect:

Of course, someone has to win the jackpot. But don't let that certainty cloud your judgment. The rules of probability dictate you do not increase your lottery odds by playing more frequently, nor by betting larger amounts on each drawing. Each lottery ticket has the same odds of winning no matter how many you buy. Each one has independent probability not altered by the frequency of play or how many other tickets you bought for the same drawing.

https://www.investopedia.com/managing-wealth/worth-playing-lottery/#:~:text=Each%20lottery%20ticket%20has%20the,bough t%20for%20the%20same%20drawing.

[benefactor]

Does this mean I cannot be a part of the clique?
Oh look...more weak trolling from 15 years ago. Roll out another one grandad. We are all here for your arsenal of 2010 clap back game

[benefactor]

you understand. it is an individual act of cowardice.
That's it buddy. Call people cowards. Koriwhat jr indeed

[vy65]

Bene, doing the lord's work as always

[Wilt Chamberlain]

That's it buddy. Call people cowards. Koriwhat jr indeed

If your response to not understanding something is to give up and try to lose with Victor Wembanyama in his second year I see it as cowardice.

There is a term for fear of the unknown for a reason.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Oh look...more weak trolling from 15 years ago. Roll out another one grandad. We are all here for your arsenal of 2010 clap back game

Well if 15 years ago you were in HS sure.

You are behaving like a clique. I assume this kori is an undesirable of the clique's history.

People act like cowards too.

[exstatic]

That's incorrect:

Of course, someone has to win the jackpot. But don't let that certainty cloud your judgment. The rules of probability dictate you do not increase your lottery odds by playing more frequently, nor by betting larger amounts on each drawing. Each lottery ticket has the same odds of winning no matter how many you buy. Each one has independent probability not altered by the frequency of play or how many other tickets you bought for the same drawing.

https://www.investopedia.com/managing-wealth/worth-playing-lottery/#:~:text=Each%20lottery%20ticket%20has%20the,bough t%20for%20the%20same%20drawing.

I’m not sure I can explain why two tickets give you 2/25M odds if you don’t already understand it. Yes, each ticket has 1/25M odds, but you have two of them. Are you really thinking that if you somehow bought every number combination that your odds of winning would still be 1/25M?

I feel like Neil Degrasse Tyson trying to explain to Terence Howard that 1X1 does not in fact equal 2.

[benefactor]

Well if 15 years ago you were in HS sure.

You are behaving like a clique. I assume this kori is an undesirable of the clique's history.

People act like cowards too.
No he's very poor at trolling. Just like you.

[vy65]

I’m not sure I can explain why two tickets give you 2/25M odds if you don’t already understand it. Yes, each ticket has 1/25M odds, but you have two of them. Are you really thinking that if you somehow bought every number combination that your odds of winning would still be 1/25M?

I feel like Neil Degrasse Tyson trying to explain to Terence Howard that 1X1 does not in fact equal 2.

It's the same odds no matter the number of times you try. They don't add up. They reset each time you roll the proverbial dice. The spurs won't get one, 40% shot of a 1-4 pick. They get two shots at ~20% with the same odds resetting each try.

So really, this is like Terrence Howard quoting Feynman to explain why NDT was wrong. "Nuh uh" doesn't cut it.

[benefactor]

I mean come on. You're using a thinly veiled disguise in basketball takes. None of us are stupid. Well except you.

[benefactor]

I mean come on. You're using a thinly veiled disguise in basketball takes. None of us are stupid. Well except you.
And Mr. Body

[Wilt Chamberlain]

I mean come on. You're using a thinly veiled disguise in basketball takes. None of us are stupid. Well except you.

So I'm a troll then.

You are still acting like a clique in your actions. Your clique responds to uncertainty with cowardice in their actions.

[spurraider21]

i miss midnightpulp and HarlemHeat37 tbh

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Now the clique reassures each other.

[buttsR4rebounding]

link?

It was in a Windhorst post. I didn’t save it.

[vy65]

I’m not sure I can explain why two tickets give you 2/25M odds if you don’t already understand it. Yes, each ticket has 1/25M odds, but you have two of them. Are you really thinking that if you somehow bought every number combination that your odds of winning would still be 1/25M?

I feel like Neil Degrasse Tyson trying to explain to Terence Howard that 1X1 does not in fact equal 2.

Hey Neil. So you’re saying the odds add up? So there’s a 46% of a 1-4 pick and an 83% chance of a 9 pick. That’s a 129% chance risk of those five picks when the most possible for all picks is 100%. Sounds like you just won a Nobel Prize for breaking math as we know it.

[exstatic]

It's the same odds no matter the number of times you try. They don't add up. They reset each time you roll the proverbial dice. The spurs won't get one, 40% shot of a 1-4 pick. They get two shots at ~20% with the same odds resetting each try.

So really, this is like Terrence Howard quoting Feynman to explain why NDT was wrong. "Nuh uh" doesn't cut it.

By your logic, everyone has the exact same odds to win the draft lottery, since it doesn’t matter how many number combinations you hold.

[vy65]

By your logic, everyone has the exact same odds to win the draft lottery, since it doesn’t matter how many number combinations you hold.

That’s not what I’m saying not a remotely plausible interpretation of what I’ve said. Try again.

[vy65]

*try again Neil DeGrasse Tyson

[buttsR4rebounding]

It's the same odds no matter the number of times you try. They don't add up. They reset each time you roll the proverbial dice. The spurs won't get one, 40% shot of a 1-4 pick. They get two shots at ~20% with the same odds resetting each try.

So really, this is like Terrence Howard quoting Feynman to explain why NDT was wrong. "Nuh uh" doesn't cut it.

lol. Ex is totally correct. You are not re-rolling the dice. You are rolling them once with multiple combinations that will produce a winner for you. It is hard to believe you are actually arguing the additional chances don’t give you better odds.

[vy65]

The spurs are throwing a 14 sided die twice. After the first throw, one number is removed from the die, so it becomes 13 sided. The first throw has a 20% chance of being numbers 1-4. In this scenario, that makes those odds be 4/14 or 28%. If they hit 1-4, that means there’s a 3/13 chance they do it again, or 21%. That doesn’t mean that the spurs have a 49% chance of getting a 1-4 roll.

[scott]

We need Ariel (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=3526) to do the exact math, because I'm too lazy to do it, but no - the having the 8th and 9th pick (pre-lotto) do not give you a 46.4% chance at getting a Top 4 pick, the same way that they don't give you a 153.4% chance of not getting a Top 4 pick (which is the sum of the odds of all other possible picks).

The same way if you had 10 of the 14 top pick odds, you would not have a 375.9% of getting a Top 4 pick.

By the same token, if you had picks 11-14 (pre lottery), you would not have a 23.7% chance of getting a Top 4 pick. This is in part because hitting on one of them excludes the possibility you can hit on the others. You can add up the odds for any one team and you can add up the odds for any one pick, but you can't do it cumulatively across teams (rows) and picks (columns).

C'mon exstatic, use your brain man.

[exstatic]

That’s not what I’m saying not a remotely plausible interpretation of what I’ve said. Try again.

We hold both our number combinations AND Atlanta’s. If any of their combinations or our combinations are drawn, we move up. It’s one pot of number combinations that we own.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Hey Neil. So you’re saying the odds add up? So there’s a 46% of a 1-4 pick and an 83% chance of a 9 pick. That’s a 129% chance risk of those five picks when the most possible for all picks is 100%. Sounds like you just won a Nobel Prize for breaking math as we know it.

1-4 add up to 46% and then 5-9 add up to the remaining 54% for slot 5.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

The Spurs are not repeating the same probability with multiple picks in a round. They are getting a larger share of the probable outcomes. All the teams get different numbers. The probabilities are additive in this case.

[BackHome]

Haha I still remember people saying it was Stupid to tank last year and that there was No way we would get Wemby. Ahhh Good Times. Lol

[vy65]

We hold both our number combinations AND Atlanta’s. If any of their combinations or our combinations are drawn, we move up. It’s one pot of number combinations that we own.

You’re like Stephen Hawking, but with just the wheelchair and inability to speak and none of his intelligence

[scott]

The spurs are throwing a 14 sided die twice. After the first throw, one number is removed from the die, so it becomes 13 sided. The first throw has a 20% chance of being numbers 1-4. In this scenario, that makes those odds be 4/14 or 28%. If they hit 1-4, that means there’s a 3/13 chance they do it again, or 21%. That doesn’t mean that the spurs have a 49% chance of getting a 1-4 roll.

Bingo.

[vy65]

Brian Wright is a fucking genius for scoring us 200% odds while the rest of the NBA is fucking behind us with 100% odds. Fucking idiots.

[MultiTroll]

Indeed. For as deep as next year's class seems to have the potential to be - has there ever been a draft class 10 players deep? I know that you can find HOFs anywhere in the draft... but then luck and scouting exceptionalism come into play. I can't recall any draft that had 10 guys who were "obvious" picks.
84 had some top talent and was 10 deep.

Michael Jordan
John Stockton
Charles Barkley
Hakeem Olajuwon
Otis Thorpe
Sam Perkins
Kevin Willis
Michael Cage
Jerome Kersey
Alvin Robertson

[Wilt Chamberlain]

The spurs are throwing a 14 sided die twice. After the first throw, one number is removed from the die, so it becomes 13 sided. The first throw has a 20% chance of being numbers 1-4. In this scenario, that makes those odds be 4/14 or 28%. If they hit 1-4, that means there’s a 3/13 chance they do it again, or 21%. That doesn’t mean that the spurs have a 49% chance of getting a 1-4 roll.

And if the lottery was ongoing that would matter. Not only is the lottery not ongoing can you ever recall a pick being traded in the middle of the lottery?

[scott]

To put the dice example more accurately:

If the Spurs had the 8 and 9 seed:

Dice Throw 1, Spurs have 105 out of 1000 combinations.

Assume they do not hit.

Dice Throw 2: Spurs have 105 out of 999 combination.

Assume they do not hit.

Dice Throw 3: Spurs have 105 out of 998 combinations.

Dice throw 4: Spurs have 105 out of 997 combinations.

The tricky part of it is that after throw one, there is one combination that gets thrown out (Because it's already chosen) but there is also between 4 and 139 OTHER combinations that if picked, are invalidated, because the owner of those combinations already got picked. So your odds of landing the 4th pick are impacted by who wins pick 1-3. If Seeds 1-3 get those picks, then on roll 4 you have 105 out of 580 possible winning combos, but if Seeds 12, 13, 14 somehow jumped up, you'd only have 105 out of 970 winning combinations.

Edit, there are actually 1,001 combos - I forgot about that. But only 1,000 are assigned. So it's the same as above. You have the same combos assigned to you throughout picks 1-4, so as combos are drawn, the odds actually adjust based on the number of combos that get nullified ahead of you.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

You guys clearly never understood the point of Schrodinger's cat. To help, in this case the box has not opened and you are discussing what will happen after it is opened.

[vy65]

To put the dice example more accurately:

If the Spurs had the 8 and 9 seed:

Dice Throw 1, Spurs have 105 out of 1000 combinations.

Assume they do not hit.

Dice Throw 2: Spurs have 105 out of 999 combination.

Assume they do not hit.

Dice Throw 3: Spurs have 105 out of 998 combinations.

Dice throw 4: Spurs have 105 out of 997 combinations.

The tricky part of it is that after throw one, there is one combination that gets thrown out (Because it's already chosen) but there is also between 4 and 139 OTHER combinations that if picked, are invalidated, because the owner of those combinations already got picked. So your odds of landing the 4th pick are impacted by who wins pick 1-3. If Seeds 1-3 get those picks, then on roll 4 you have 105 out of 580 possible winning combos, but if Seeds 12, 13, 14 somehow jumped up, you'd only have 105 out of 970 winning combinations.

But how does that get us 400% odds at Cooper Flagg?

[vy65]

You guys clearly never understood the point of Schrodinger's cat. To help, in this case the box has not opened and you are discussing what will happen after it is opened.

:lmao

We need to understand Heisenberg as a precursor to understanding the NBA fucking draft :lol

[vy65]

Look bro, I’ve read Eisenstein. I know Bohr. I tutored Penrose. I’ve watched Oppenheimer. Twice. I can tell you without a doubt we have 900% odds at the #1 pick.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Look bro, I’ve read Eisenstein. I know Bohr. I tutored Penrose. I’ve watched Oppenheimer. Twice. I can tell you without a doubt we have 900% odds at the #1 pick.

Wow are you insecure. Hopefully the clique reassures you soon.

We are discussing probability. You are describing what happens over the course of the 2 hours that a lottery happens and insisting it matters. You are arguing against the view before the event happens outside of those two hours when trades actually happen.

I don't care if you understand it. Seems simple to me.

[vy65]

Wow are you insecure. Hopefully the clique reassures you soon.

We are discussing probability. You are describing what happens over the course of the 2 hours that e lottery happens and insisting it matters. You are arguing against the view before the event happens outside of those to hours when trades actually happen.

I don't care if you understand it. Seems simple to me.

“God doesn’t play dice, but I know how to solve the 2025 NBA draft”

Schr:loldinger’s c:lolt

[TDomination]

It's the Spurs fan copium for when we are a terrible team again next season. Then we will trade our 2025 lottery pick for the 2044 NBA draft FRP.
yes but it will be unprotected so its worth it

[benefactor]

Insecure. Coward. Clique. References and analogies.

Allow me to stand back and let you through. Please continue.

[benefactor]

In fact Pawpaw, isn't it about time to freshen up that coffee pot? Id hate for you to lose any of your edge.

[Pauleta14]

My hope for 25' is to be able to trade as up as possible with 3 1RPs

Only a season ending injury will make us tank so let's forget about a direct lottery pick imo

We need 3 to get a top5 maybe

[vy65]

The collapse of the wave function has as much to do with the draft’s odds as knowing how to assemble a microchip has to do with the recipe for a peanut butter and jelly sandwich.

Now I understand why Trump will be our next president.

Humanity = fucked

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Insecure. Coward. Clique. References and analogies.

Allow me to stand back and let you through. Please continue.

Walks like a duck, talks like a duck, quacks like a duck.

Like and thank your clique-mates some more while trying to stigmatize me.

If it's old to you that just means you haven't changed.

[exstatic]

We need Ariel (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=3526) to do the exact math, because I'm too lazy to do it, but no - the having the 8th and 9th pick (pre-lotto) do not give you a 46.4% chance at getting a Top 4 pick, the same way that they don't give you a 153.4% chance of not getting a Top 4 pick (which is the sum of the odds of all other possible picks).

The same way if you had 10 of the 14 top pick odds, you would not have a 375.9% of getting a Top 4 pick.

By the same token, if you had picks 11-14 (pre lottery), you would not have a 23.7% chance of getting a Top 4 pick. This is in part because hitting on one of them excludes the possibility you can hit on the others. You can add up the odds for any one team and you can add up the odds for any one pick, but you can't do it cumulatively ‘across teams (rows) and picks (columns).

C'mon exstatic, use your brain man.

Got it. If we have our pick and Atlanta’s, we have 4% and 6.5% of getting #1 overall. That’s 40 balls for pick 9 and 65 balls for pick 8. There is another distinct position that has 105 balls in the hopper, position #5. The odds for that # of balls to hit top 4, according to the NBA home page on TaT is 42.1%, which would account for me missing the bolded part of your post.

[benefactor]

Walks like a duck, talks like a duck, quacks like a duck.

:lol Boomerspeak

Which one are you going to break out next? If my aunt had a dick she'd be my uncle?

[Wilt Chamberlain]

The collapse of the wave function has as much to do with the draft’s odds as knowing how to assemble a microchip has to do with the recipe for a peanut butter and jelly sandwich.

Now I understand why Trump will be our next president.

Humanity = fucked

Does the calculation for the wave function start before or after an event? Could said event be analogous to an event like the start of the lottery?

Of course it can.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

:lol Boomerspeak

Which one are you going to break out next? If my aunt had a dick she'd be my uncle?

If you need to categorize me to insult me that says quite a lot. I was going more for simple so you could more easily understand.

[vy65]

Got it. If we have our pick and Atlanta’s, we have 4% and 6.5% of getting #1 overall. That’s 40 balls for pick 9 and 65 balls for pick 8. There is another distinct position that has 105 balls in the hopper, position #5. The odds for that # of balls to hit top 4, according to the NBA home page on TaT is 42.1%, which would account for me missing the bolded part of your post.

So what happens to those 65 balls if one of the 40 is selected? Do they still represent 6.5% of hitting #1 when they really have 0%.

Maybe this is like Schrodinger’s cat…

[vy65]

Does the calculation for the wave function start before or after an event? Could said event be analogous to an event like the start of the lottery?

Of course it can.

:lmao

[vy65]

Pawpaw’s ozempic prescription not only cured his ‘beetus, but it learned him quantum field theory too. Move over black spurs gm, there’s a new sheriff in town.

[exstatic]

So what happens to those 65 balls if one of the 40 is selected? Do they still represent 6.5% of hitting #1 when they really have 0%.

Maybe this is like Schrodinger’s cat…

No, but they have a 19.2% shot at 2-4, the odds of pick 8, positions 2,3,4.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

:lmao

Peanut butter jelly sandwiches is about your level.

[benefactor]

If you need to categorize me to insult me that says quite a lot. I was going more for simple so you could more easily understand.
Look out people.... It's the "I kept it simple because you aren't smart" insult.

Jesus abuelo you are digging deep aren't you:lol

[NASpurs]

Pawpaw’s ozempic prescription not only cured his ‘beetus, but it learned him quantum field theory too. Move over black spurs gm, there’s a new sheriff in town.

:lol

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Look out people.... It's the "I kept it simple because you aren't smart" insult.

Jesus abuelo you are digging deep aren't you:lol

I had just gotten hammered for bringing up Schrodingers's cat. You aren't going to like anything I do.

I am not sure what you are feeling good about.

[vy65]

Peanut butter jelly sandwiches is about your level.

Fuckin’ got rid of that black muslim prez-eh-dent, learned me how to solve for the amplitude in the wave function, got me a bitchin new waterski and matchin tattoo, and now I’m cruisin on spurstalk clowning on fools and cruisin for babes. Life. Is. Good. #saltlife

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Fuckin’ got rid of that black muslim prez-eh-dent, learned me how to solve for the amplitude in the wave function, got me a bitchin new waterski and matchin tattoo, and now I’m cruisin on spurstalk clowning on fools and cruisin for babes. Life. Is. Good. #saltlife

all this blather because you do not understand intermediate probability.

Now that is taken care of, it is valid to add the probabilities by round when looking at FRP before the lottery begins.

[vy65]

Community college is in session boys and girls

[Robz4000]

i miss midnightpulp and HarlemHeat37 tbh

Surprised they haven't resurfaced since we got Wemby tbh.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Community college is in session boys and girls

Do you always whine like this when you are wrong?

[vy65]

Do you always whine like this when you are wrong?

YES I DO THANKS FOR NOTICING

[vy65]

Surprised they haven't resurfaced since we got Wemby tbh.

Didn’t Midnight get blown up by an ordinance in Ukraine? Or was that DeadlyDynasty

[benefactor]

Community college is in session boys and girls
He has switched his shtick from thin basketball knowledge troll to quasi intelligent troll. I was all ready to ignore him but honestly, I'm here for the next chapter. Let's have it Gramps. I will need some of those Boomer sayings as a side dish too. Thanks in advance.

[Knoxxx]

Didn’t Midnight get blown up by an ordinance in Ukraine? Or was that DeadlyDynasty

You’ve got a pretty mouth…

[vy65]

He has switched his shtick from thin basketball knowledge troll to quasi no intelligent troll. I was all ready to ignore him but honestly, I'm here for the next chapter. Let's have it Gramps. I will need some of those Boomer sayings as a side dish too. Thanks in advance.

Not everyday you see the transformation of a boomer to pathetic coffee house faux intellectual in the span of three posts. Like you, I’m here for it. Lay it on us Wilt, and go get you that unsuspecting, below average 19 year old pussy we all know you be fiending for

[Wilt Chamberlain]

He has switched his shtick from thin basketball knowledge troll to quasi intelligent troll. I was all ready to ignore him but honestly, I'm here for the next chapter. Let's have it Gramps. I will need some of those Boomer sayings as a side dish too. Thanks in advance.

Your clique is not to good with the statistics. You are defending your friends I get but it is what it is.

Now you know you can just add the probabilities and why.

[benefactor]

I am really starting to think this is Mr. Bodys alt. All this just feels like some shit he would say if he wasn't under his main.

[vy65]

You’ve got a pretty mouth…

:perv:

[scott]

He has switched his shtick from thin basketball knowledge troll to quasi intelligent troll. I was all ready to ignore him but honestly, I'm here for the next chapter. Let's have it Gramps. I will need some of those Boomer sayings as a side dish too. Thanks in advance.

Sounds like FuzzyLumpkins back for his quarterly meltdown where he accuses Ariel of being a nazi out of the blue.

[benefactor]

Sounds like FuzzyLumpkins back for his quarterly meltdown where he accuses Ariel of being a nazi out of the blue.
I hope ST never changes. Ever.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

So this is how the clique reassures each other for not understanding how probability works.

[Ariel]

We need Ariel (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=3526) to do the exact math, because I'm too lazy to do it, but no - the having the 8th and 9th pick (pre-lotto) do not give you a 46.4% chance at getting a Top 4 pick, the same way that they don't give you a 153.4% chance of not getting a Top 4 pick (which is the sum of the odds of all other possible picks).

The same way if you had 10 of the 14 top pick odds, you would not have a 375.9% of getting a Top 4 pick.

By the same token, if you had picks 11-14 (pre lottery), you would not have a 23.7% chance of getting a Top 4 pick. This is in part because hitting on one of them excludes the possibility you can hit on the others. You can add up the odds for any one team and you can add up the odds for any one pick, but you can't do it cumulatively across teams (rows) and picks (columns).

C'mon exstatic, use your brain man.
Had to do some coding because I somehow lost the small program that did the calculations for me, this should be the joint probability distribution for pre lottery seeds 8 and 9:
https://i.postimg.cc/15whf9FX/t89.png
There's basically 4 quadrants:
1) upper left, both picks are top 4: 3.98%
2) upper right, only pre-lottery seed 8 is top 4: 22.33%
3) bottom left, only pre-lottery seed 9 is top 4: 16.30%
4) bottom right, none is top 4: 57.39%

So, assuming pre-lottery seeds 8 & 9, chances we land EXACTLY 1 top 4 pick are 38,63% and chances we land AT LEAST 1 top 4 pick (1 or 2) are 42,61%.

Will double check tomorrow with a fresh brain, but should be ok.

[rascal]

Portland will be better than last year. Clingan is a good fit and they'll get Sharpe and Scoot back.

[stnick2261]

We (and ATL) just need to be worse than CHI. I wonder what our lottery odds would be if we finished 9, 10 & 11. (and then CHA finishes 15, just for fun)

[KobesAchilles]

We (and ATL) just need to be worse than CHI. I wonder what our lottery odds would be if we finished 9, 10 & 11. (and then CHA finishes 15, just for fun)
If that happens then the Wolves aren’t gonna have any picks in the 2030s :lol

[taps]

link?

It was in a Windhorst post. I didn’t save it.

https://www.poundingtherock.com/2024/4/11/24127702/report-the-spurs-wont-be-looking-to-make-any-big-moves-this-summer

On SiriusXM ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said Spurs aren’t looking to make big moves/trades this summer and will instead focus on the 2025 Draft. When in S.A. recently, he spent one on one time with Spurs GM Brian Wright so it’s likely that this info came from that source. #PorVida pic.twitter.com/MWXfSumHeX
— Dusty Garza (@Dgarza888) April 11, 2024

[TrainOfThought5]

Haha I still remember people saying it was Stupid to tank last year and that there was No way we would get Wemby. Ahhh Good Times. Lol

Overdue for a Thread Bump and laugh tbh

[DrSteffo]

I have heard of McNeely and Demin. Both seem to be very good. Everything is gradual, the progress of the team and the degree of competing and not tanking. We should be slightly better better next season which is fine.

[Raven]

there will be no tanking

[John B]

We should find out soon . If PATFO view Markkanen as target to be #2 next to Wemby, I feel they will do what it’ll take to get him. Spurs have the picks and assets to get it done. And with CP3 acquisition, It looks like it’s leaning towards getting better than the other way around.

[south side spur]

Ace Bailey Rutgers 6’9” 210 lbs
Powder Springs, Georgia
97 ESPN Rating


Draft Express: Ranked No. 2 in the ESPN 100, Bailey has outstanding physical skills, defensive versatility, shot-making prowess and a serious-minded, competitive approach.


LeagueHim: Exceptional versatility while displaying an abundance of offensive creativity, with advanced footwork and craft to get his shot off. Lengthy, fluid, and explosive two-way wing boasting skill and touch.

[rascal]

We do suck, but not enough for it to matter. Sorry to break it to you.

Spurs are a severe ankle sprain to Wemby from being a bottom 5 team. I expect Atlanta to be worse than you think after the Murray trade. No one knows where both the Spurs and Hawks will end up.