2003(ish) Spurs series of events vs now

[stnick2261]

This stuff with LM reminds me of the 2003 draft. One of the best drafts of all time, but we had the 28th pick because we were fresh off a championship.

You could argue that tanking that ‘02-‘03 season could have gotten us LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwayne Wade, or Chris bosh… but we wouldn’t have that championship.

Notable All-Stars still on the board at #28 were Josh Howard, Mo Williams, and Kyle Korver. You could argue that drafting any of them would have been the right choice.

Instead, we traded that pick to the Suns for their 2005 draft pick (ended up being #30). That pick ended up being David Lee. You could argue that (with us having trouble finding a big man to play next to Tim) David Lee would have been the perfect outcome.

However, halfway into the ‘04-‘05 season, we ended up trading that 2005, #30 draft pick to New York (along with Malik Rose) for Nazr Mohammed. We probably don’t win the ‘05 championship without Nazr.

Drafting David Lee, or any of the 9 All-Stars in the 2003 draft may have been better “long-term” beneficial choices… but the choices that were made led to immediate championships.

I believe drafting top 3-5 next summer may lead to longer overall success, but trading for LM (or making another move) might lead to a higher immediate success, so I’m good either way. And either way, I’m glad the Spurs are prioritizing stockpiling other teams’ picks (/swaps).

Just don’t stop halfway and end up somewhere in the middle.

[Manu20]

Or we would have drafted Darko in 2003 :pop:

Man, Pistons really messed that up...lol

[LeBowen]

You could argue that signing JKidd in free agency could've gotten us at least a threepeat.


I believe drafting top 3-5 next summer may lead to longer overall success, but trading for LM (or making another move) might lead to a higher immediate success, so I’m good either way. And either way, I’m glad the Spurs are prioritizing stockpiling other teams’ picks (/swaps).

The entire problem with that assumption and something that needs to be stickied at the top of this forum is that the odds of getting a top5 pick are very low.
There are going to be at least 6, probably 8 teams that will blatantly tank and lose games on purpose.
We can't tank with Wemby already being in MVP contention and Hawks obviously won't tank since they don't own their pick. The East is garbage and they'll easily be a play-in team.

We'll have a ~25% chance of getting one top5 pick with those two picks, those are simply not good odds.
Tanking and gambling for odds is only acceptable when you don't have your franchise player.

I'm not saying Spurs should trade 5 FRPs for Markkanen, but forget about getting more top5 picks unless we get ridiculously lucky yet again.
Idk about you, but I think Spurs have had their share of lottery luck in these two drafts.

[stnick2261]

Or we would have drafted Darko in 2003 :pop:

Man, Pistons really messed that up...lol

Pistons traded for that pick 6 years ahead of the draft. Perfect case of trading for far away picks.

Darko always said he never got better as a player because the Pistons were already good and never gave him playing time. Pistons should have drafted better. We got lucky in '05 that Pistons busted in the '03 draft.

[R. DeMurre]

Tanking with a prime Tim Duncan wouldn't be possible.

[stnick2261]

You could argue that signing JKidd in free agency could've gotten us at least a threepeat.



The entire problem with that assumption and something that needs to be stickied at the top of this forum is that the odds of getting a top5 pick are very low.
There are going to be at least 6, probably 8 teams that will blatantly tank and lose games on purpose.
We can't tank with Wemby already being in MVP contention and Hawks obviously won't tank since they don't own their pick. The East is garbage and they'll easily be a play-in team.

We'll have a ~25% chance of getting one top5 pick with those two picks, those are simply not good odds.
Tanking and gambling for odds is only acceptable when you don't have your franchise player.

I'm not saying Spurs should trade 5 FRPs for Markkanen, but forget about getting more top5 picks unless we get ridiculously lucky yet again.
Idk about you, but I think Spurs have had their share of lottery luck in these two drafts.

This is exactly why I'm hoping we trade for Markkanen... but only at a decent cost. Far out picks from other teams is how we might draft our Lebron/Darko.

[stnick2261]

Tanking with a prime Tim Duncan wouldn't be possible.

Tanking with a prime David Robinson wouldn't be possible.

[LeBowen]

This is exactly why I'm hoping we trade for Markkanen... but only at a decent cost. Far out picks from other teams is how we might draft our Lebron/Darko.

All PATFO needs to do is tell Ainge to call them when he's ready to make the trade and state the best offer he has on the table.
We can easily beat any offer, it's just about if it would be worth it.

[SpursFan86]

Tanking with a prime Tim Duncan wouldn't be possible.

This…and in the same vein, tanking with even 2nd year Wemby would be extremely tough (especially considering how many teams are shaping up to be awful next year).

We’re almost certainly going to end up in that “middle ground” territory where we’re not a bottom 5-6 team and we’re not in the playoffs. And that’s fine. The idea that we should just intentionally make ourselves as bad as possible to land another top 3 pick when we already have one of the brightest young players in NBA history is asinine.

[baseline bum]

This stuff with LM reminds me of the 2003 draft. One of the best drafts of all time, but we had the 28th pick because we were fresh off a championship.

You could argue that tanking that ‘02-‘03 season could have gotten us LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwayne Wade, or Chris bosh… but we wouldn’t have that championship.

Notable All-Stars still on the board at #28 were Josh Howard, Mo Williams, and Kyle Korver. You could argue that drafting any of them would have been the right choice.

Instead, we traded that pick to the Suns for their 2005 draft pick (ended up being #30). That pick ended up being David Lee. You could argue that (with us having trouble finding a big man to play next to Tim) David Lee would have been the perfect outcome.

However, halfway into the ‘04-‘05 season, we ended up trading that 2005, #30 draft pick to New York (along with Malik Rose) for Nazr Mohammed. We probably don’t win the ‘05 championship without Nazr.

Drafting David Lee, or any of the 9 All-Stars in the 2003 draft may have been better “long-term” beneficial choices… but the choices that were made led to immediate championships.

I believe drafting top 3-5 next summer may lead to longer overall success, but trading for LM (or making another move) might lead to a higher immediate success, so I’m good either way. And either way, I’m glad the Spurs are prioritizing stockpiling other teams’ picks (/swaps).

Just don’t stop halfway and end up somewhere in the middle.

Spurs aren't going to be drafting 3-5 with their own pick next year unless Wemby gets hurt or they have a lot of luck in the lottery. Win 30-35 games and you're somewhere from 8th to 10th worst in the league and it's hard to imagine not getting to that 30 win mark just on Wemby's improvement alone much less having Paul who can throw an entry pass and a lob and having Barnes take some of Collins' minutes.

[stnick2261]

Spurs aren't going to be drafting 3-5 with their own pick next year unless Wemby gets hurt or they have a lot of luck in the lottery. Win 30-35 games and you're somewhere from 8th to 10th worst in the league and it's hard to imagine not getting to that 30 win mark just on Wemby's improvement alone much less having Paul who can throw an entry pass and a lob and having Barnes take some of Collins' minutes.

yup, I was clearly on #TeamTank before we got Paul and Barnes. Now, I don't want them to stop. Get the team as good as possible as quickly as possible... and rely on other team's picks to reload over the years.

[scott]

All PATFO needs to do is tell Ainge to call them when he's ready to make the trade and state the best offer he has on the table.
We can easily beat any offer, it's just about if it would be worth it.

I've been thinking about this a little bit and how it would work in practice.

First, for Ainge to do this, he would burn bridges (only a little) with other teams who negotiated in good faith with him. It's one thing to negotiate with multiple parties for the best deal, it's another to string one party along just to hand the deal over to another party. Yes, Ainge has to look out for his own interests, but he can't cavalierly burn other relationships in the process.

Second, there is nothing to stop Ainge from just lying to the Spurs. It's not like the Spurs can call up the Warriors and verify what Ainge is telling them ("hey guys, can you tell us what you offered to Utah so we can beat it?"). So Ainge could just tell them that it's 5 FRPs and 3 swaps. The Spurs will still have to call the bluff at some point and draw their own lines in the sand.

In practice, if the Spurs are interested (which I don't think they are), they'll just tell Ainge "hey... you have our current offer... we want to make this happen. If you have other ideas, let us know what you're thinking and maybe we can make this happen" - but in the end it will still hold that the Spurs will have to estimate what GSW (or any other team) can really offer. For GSW, it's actually pretty easy to figure out and I believe we can easily beat that with what I feel is fair value. The problem comes if there are other unknown teams in the mix... that can really throw a monkey wrench into the plans.

[scott]

yup, I was clearly on #TeamTank before we got Paul and Barnes. Now, I don't want them to stop. Get the team as good as possible as quickly as possible... and rely on other team's picks to reload over the years.

Yeah, I think the horse has left the barn on team tank with Paul and Barnes... the problem is, it only takes us to no mans land: 30-35 wins and pick 10-12. I'm fully with you, rather than be stuck here, let's take the next step and get the piece (maybe if there are any 7-foot 50/40/90 wings out there) to make us a playoff team, so we can get that critical playoff experience. Do that, and set Wemby up so he will never see the lottery for the rest of his career.

[LeBowen]

Yeah, I think the horse has left the barn on team tank with Paul and Barnes... the problem is, it only takes us to no mans land: 30-35 wins and pick 10-12. I'm fully with you, rather than be stuck here, let's take the next step and get the piece (maybe if there are any 7-foot 50/40/90 wings out there) to make us a playoff team, so we can get that critical playoff experience. Do that, and set Wemby up so he will never see the lottery for the rest of his career.

We were too optimistic last summer, but the biggest issue with our team was as simple as them not knowing how to get the ball to Wemby.
Wemby looks ridiculous right now and with some luck we could sneak into .500 territory.

A lot of teams in the West have questions marks around them.
OKC, Denver, Minnesota and Dallas should still be in 50+ wins territory.
Blazers and Jazz will definitely be worse than us.
Spurs and 7 other teams that can't really be certain how their season will go.

Clippers are old and lost PG...he's PG8 now. ;)
They're desperately trying to stay relevant, but even if they stay healthy they'll be worse than this season.
I'd say ~45 wins best case scenario.

Suns are stuck with their overlapping trio of players and scrubs around them.
KD and Booker will grind out the regular season, but they surely won't get better. Mid to high 40s in win column.
One KD/Booker injury and they're gone. Beal surely won't stay healthy.

NOLA got better with DJ and are still looking for a big, with Ingram leaving.
Zion can't stay healthy, with him they should be in ~50 wins territory, but without him it's going to be a struggle to keep above .500.
If they don't get a good rim protector, they're going to be really flawed on defense since Zion is a traffic con...barrel? ;)

Lakers had a miraculous season with AD staying healthy and still haven't found a big manage his load and keep him healthy.
Lebron is past it and LeNut is the star of the show. They also hired a podcaster as a coach. Will be lucky to stay above .500 even if everyone's healthy.

Kings doubled down on offense. Will be must see TV, but their defense is tragic. Still at ~45 wins if healthy.

Warriors are on life support. Yeah, they got some useful rotation players, but that's a bad, dysfunctional roster.
If Steph shows any signs of decline, they're out of the playoff picture.

Rockets should get better, I expect them to be better than Warriors and Lakers.

Grizzlies are a wildcard. On paper they should go straight up into top4 seed batle, but Ja was out for the season for one reason or another.
And they still lack shooting. Their starting lineup spacing is horrible.


My early prediction is that at least two of Suns/Clippers/Lakers/Warriors implode and never return to contention.
They're all just too close to their expiry date and all look like bad enviroments to work/play in right now.

Two of NOLA/Kings/Rockets/Grizzlies/Spurs make the playoffs with top4 established teams.

Looking at the rosters around West, noone can really deal with Wemby.
Lakers have AD, but don't have enough defensive wings around him.
Rockets have wings, but don't have rim protection.

Our perimeter defense and shooting theoretically got way better, if Wemby continues his exponential growth, I think we're in for a very fun ride.
East teams are way more equipped to deal with him.
Knicks, Bucks, Pacers, Celtics, Sixers have both rim protectors and wing size.

[scott]

We were too optimistic last summer, but the biggest issue with our team was as simple as them not knowing how to get the ball to Wemby.
Wemby looks ridiculous right now and with some luck we could sneak into .500 territory.



I think that's still a little too optimistic. I believe Wemby will somehow exceed our (very high) expectations next year, but I look at this proposed bench (Tre, Castle, Bran, Champ, Keldon, Collins) and see the same as last year: atrocious defense, disjointed offense, and leads disappearing or close games turning into blowout losses.

I think Paul is a solid move, but it's not like we're adding a star PG. We've acquired Barnes, who I like a lot as wing depth, but I'm less enthused about if he's starting. It's an upgrade over Champ, but he's still a low-end starter (in fact, I hope we still plan on using Castle in the starting lineup, Barnes to the bench makes a lot more sense).

So for now, I'm sticking to 30-35 wins next year unless there is another move.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm still stuck on OP saying we might have tanked in 02-03. What? Why?

[LeBowen]

I think that's still a little too optimistic. I believe Wemby will somehow exceed our (very high) expectations next year, but I look at this proposed bench (Tre, Castle, Bran, Champ, Keldon, Collins) and see the same as last year: atrocious defense, disjointed offense, and leads disappearing or close games turning into blowout losses.

I think Paul is a solid move, but it's not like we're adding a star PG. We've acquired Barnes, who I like a lot as wing depth, but I'm less enthused about if he's starting. It's an upgrade over Champ, but he's still a low-end starter (in fact, I hope we still plan on using Castle in the starting lineup, Barnes to the bench makes a lot more sense).

So for now, I'm sticking to 30-35 wins next year unless there is another move.

Obviously the team still has a lot of glaring flaws, but it's not like the other low-end playoff teams are perfect.
Hopefully Branham loses his minutes, then it's down to Keldon and Collins as the only two really bad defenders.
And I'm still hoping Collins gets traded away.

CP3 isn't an all-star, but as much as I hate him, he makes everyone better.
He averaged 9/7 in 26mpg with the Warriors, a roster and playstyle that obviously didn't suit him.
I think he can easily average 10/10 with us.

[scott]

I'll be in Vegas next week, I'll be curious if any over/unders are posted by then. I expect the Spurs to come in around 33.5

[R. DeMurre]

Tanking with a prime David Robinson wouldn't be possible.

:lol "Timmy, we know you're healthy, and don't need knee surgery, but would you mind sitting out a season in your prime so we can get a better draft pick?"

[SpursFan86]

I think once you start talking about 40+ wins, a LOT has to break our way and it just starts to become pretty unrealistic. Sure, if Wemby leaps into top 5-10 in the league territory + Sochan breaks out + Castle is a positive impact guy from day 1 + CP3 stays healthy and proves he’s still a top floor general in the league…then yeah, 40-45 wins is possible. That’s just asking for a lot and inevitably there will be disappointments in certain areas.

I really do want to project something like 38-40 wins, but even that seems optimistic. I think 35ish sounds right (still probably on the slightly optimistic side).

[TD 21]

I think that's still a little too optimistic. I believe Wemby will somehow exceed our (very high) expectations next year, but I look at this proposed bench (Tre, Castle, Bran, Champ, Keldon, Collins) and see the same as last year: atrocious defense, disjointed offense, and leads disappearing or close games turning into blowout losses.

I think Paul is a solid move, but it's not like we're adding a star PG. We've acquired Barnes, who I like a lot as wing depth, but I'm less enthused about if he's starting. It's an upgrade over Champ, but he's still a low-end starter (in fact, I hope we still plan on using Castle in the starting lineup, Barnes to the bench makes a lot more sense).

So for now, I'm sticking to 30-35 wins next year unless there is another move.

As I said earlier in another thread, expect probably Barnes (with Johnson subbing in mid 1st and 3rd quarter) to play a good amount with the second unit since they need his shooting and someone who can credibly play the four.

But yeah, no real self sufficient scorer, poor spacing, terrible rebounding (a team wide issue sans Wembanyama that'll be exacerbated if Bassey is collateral damage of this trade) and no rim protection.

[LeBowen]

As I said earlier in another thread, expect probably Barnes (with Johnson subbing in mix 1st and 3rd quarter) to play a good amount with the second unit since they need his shooting and someone who can credibly play the four.

But yeah, no real self sufficient scorer, poor spacing, terrible rebounding (a team wide issue sans Wembanyama that'll be exacerbated if Bassey is collateral damage of this trade) and no rim protection.

I expect Devin to be the leader of the second unit, it seems like an obvious choice.
Most teams have their best self-creating starter who's not the first option stay with bench units.
Since we often compare Devin to Middleton's career trajectory, Middleton always played with the bench unit before they got Lillard.
Iirc, KD also likes to play the entire first quarter.

The only thing I don't like is Castle being forced to play off the ball.

CP3 should play with Wemby as much as possible, Devin and Castle seem like a natural fit if Tre wasn't also in the mix.
Idk where to fit Jeremy since he's such a negative on offense, hopefully he improves over the summer.

[TD 21]

I expect Devin to be the leader of the second unit, it seems like an obvious choice.
Most teams have their best self-creating starter who's not the first option stay with bench units.
Since we often compare Devin to Middleton's career trajectory, Middleton always played with the bench unit before they got Lillard.
Iirc, KD also likes to play the entire first quarter.

The only thing I don't like is Castle being forced to play off the ball.

CP3 should play with Wemby as much as possible, Devin and Castle seem like a natural fit if Tre wasn't also in the mix.
Idk where to fit Jeremy since he's such a negative on offense, hopefully he improves over the summer.

Yeah, I could see that. Try to break up the Jones-Castle backup back court as much as possible and play Jones (one of only three positive impact players last season), as much as possible next to Vassell, the only guard he fits next to.

Of course, that means more Castle-Sochan minutes, but you can only control so much with so many non shooters.

[Splits]

I'll be in Vegas next week, I'll be curious if any over/unders are posted by then. I expect the Spurs to come in around 33.5

under under under. way under

[Wilt Chamberlain]

I've been thinking about this a little bit and how it would work in practice.

First, for Ainge to do this, he would burn bridges (only a little) with other teams who negotiated in good faith with him. It's one thing to negotiate with multiple parties for the best deal, it's another to string one party along just to hand the deal over to another party. Yes, Ainge has to look out for his own interests, but he can't cavalierly burn other relationships in the process.

Second, there is nothing to stop Ainge from just lying to the Spurs. It's not like the Spurs can call up the Warriors and verify what Ainge is telling them ("hey guys, can you tell us what you offered to Utah so we can beat it?"). So Ainge could just tell them that it's 5 FRPs and 3 swaps. The Spurs will still have to call the bluff at some point and draw their own lines in the sand.

In practice, if the Spurs are interested (which I don't think they are), they'll just tell Ainge "hey... you have our current offer... we want to make this happen. If you have other ideas, let us know what you're thinking and maybe we can make this happen" - but in the end it will still hold that the Spurs will have to estimate what GSW (or any other team) can really offer. For GSW, it's actually pretty easy to figure out and I believe we can easily beat that with what I feel is fair value. The problem comes if there are other unknown teams in the mix... that can really throw a monkey wrench into the plans.

Why would Pop be hesitant to call Kerr?

[scott]

Why would Pop be hesitant to call Kerr?

It wouldn't be a hesitation on Pop's part, but why would Kerr give Pop the information he needs to beat him out in trying to get a player? That would be self-defeating on Kerr's part.

[RC_Drunkford]

We definitely don’t win without Nazr Mohammed in 2005. Imagine having to start Rasho Nesterovic against Ben & Rasheed Wallace.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

It wouldn't be a hesitation on Pop's part, but why would Kerr give Pop the information he needs to beat him out in trying to get a player? That would be self-defeating on Kerr's part.

Because they have a good working relationship and it would be about not getting jobbed by Ainge and bid against themselves.

[scott]

Because they have a good working relationship and it would be about not getting jobbed by Ainge and bid against themselves.

I would think if the Warriors are trying to acquire Lauri, their goal would be to actually acquire him, not tank their chances. But maybe Kerr doesn't really want Lauri. This would probably be seen as collusion though. Not sure if that is explicitly against the rules, but it should be (two teams conspiring to lessen the benefit to another team)

[Wilt Chamberlain]

I would think if the Warriors are trying to acquire Lauri, their goal would be to actually acquire him, not tank their chances. But maybe Kerr doesn't really want Lauri. This would probably be seen as collusion though. Not sure if that is explicitly against the rules, but it should be (two teams conspiring to lessen the benefit to another team)

I am just saying that there is a level of respect and trust between Popovich and Kerr that is not between either party and Ainge.

If Ainge is trying to play one off the other, it would make sense that two friends would compare notes.

[scott]

I am just saying that there is a level of respect and trust between Popovich and Kerr that is not between either party and Ainge.

If Ainge is trying to play one off the other, it would make sense that two friends would compare notes.

Agree to disagree in this instance. They may be friends, but they are still competitors. But who knows?