Castle WILL 100% be in the starting lineup. There's NO WAY Castle doesn't start from day 1.

[C-Dub]

Aside from Wemby, Castle is the best talent the Spurs have selected in a draft in a long time. If Sochan started from day 1, there's no way, no how, Castle doesn't start from day being a superior talent. Barnes as a vet, will completely understand coming off the bench, as long as he's getting sufficient minutes and mentoring the young guys.

CP3, Dev, Castle, Sochan, Wemby
Tre, Branham, KJ, Barnes, Collins

If Sochan's IQ doesn't get better, I see Barnes eventually taking over that PF starting position. I know some people don't think that Castle and Sochan can start together due to not being able to consistently knock down the 3 ball, but I disagree. CP3, Dev, and Wemby can all knock down the 3 ball. When Wemby is initiating the offense, which we all know will be a lot of the time, CP3 will be posted up at 3 point line, locked and loaded for a catch and shot from Wemby. If CP3 isn't traded by the trade deadline and finish the season healthy, I can see the Spurs resigning him on a 2 year deal with the 2nd being a team option. By the end of that time, Castle will be seasoned and primed to take over as the starting Point Guard moving forward.

[baseline bum]

Will be quite disappointing to not see Castle starting and getting 30 minutes a night. Dude has such sky high potential and should already greatly improve the team's defense as long as he doesn't get rooked for playing physical defense.

[Dex]

Will be quite disappointing to not see Castle starting and getting 30 minutes a night. Dude has such sky high potential and should already greatly improve the team's defense as long as he doesn't get rooked for playing physical defense.

:pop: He needs to get over himself.

[Mr. Body]

It's one thing to claim he will start from day one, it's another to slot him in as a wing. Stephon Castle is not a wing. He's a point guard. Sticking him in the corner is taking away all his utility as an offensive player.

[SpursFan86]

Hate to break it to you guys, but I’d say that it’s pretty likely he doesn’t start day 1. And that’s fine - CP3 is going to miss games and probably won’t play much over 25 mpg anyways. There will be plenty of opportunities for Castle to get playing time as both the primary ball-handler/initiator as well as learning how to play off-ball (which is also extremely important) as a tertiary playmaker.

If he’s so good that he forces his way into the starting lineup mid-year then that’ll be awesome. But let’s pump the brakes after seeing just one SL game. He doesn’t “need” to start right off the bat.

[paperboy77]

CP3, Dev, Castle, Barnes, Wemby
Tre, KJ, Sochan, Mamu, Collins

Need to make sure that first unit builds a lead. Second unit can feature KJ and have a bunch of other hustle-play type guys.

[BacktoBasics]

Your day 1 starting 5 will be.

Paul
Vassell
Barnes
Sochan
Wemby

[thOOdee]

100% he doesn’t start on day one. But I’m sure he’ll have many starts throughout the year and will be one of the spurs’ top 3 players this year.

[baseline bum]

It's one thing to claim he will start from day one, it's another to slot him in as a wing. Stephon Castle is not a wing. He's a point guard. Sticking him in the corner is taking away all his utility as an offensive player.

I'd expect they'd want to use him as a secondary initiator when Paul is on the floor and first initiator when he isn't. No one wants Castle just standing at the perimeter waiting for catch and shoot three point attempts.

[TeKu]

Amen Thompson, last years #4 pick, started 23 games for a Houston team at a similar type development stage. Would expect similar for Castle. His starts will come as replacements for injured/resting starters.

[The Truth #6]

Developing Wemby with a real point guard in CP is likely more highly prioritized then handing the keys to a rookie over a top point guard of all time. Just thinking big picture.

[Obstructed_View]

Popovich didn't play Splitter for like three years. Nothing is guaranteed.

[BackHome]

I am not worried who is starting just as long as he gets playing time and with the long term plan of him being our PG of the future.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Developing Wemby with a real point guard in CP is likely more highly prioritized then handing the keys to a rookie over a top point guard of all time. Just thinking big picture.

Agreed, gotta run a competent offense before as oppose to wasting a quarter of a season a forced PG experiment

[talkspurs]

Why does everyone think Paul will start? I could see him coming off the bench. This would help lower his minuets, make it effect the team less when he missed a game and let Castle lead the team more. If Castle doesnt work then they could put someone else in there next to him.

[rankingtear]

Why does everyone think Paul will start? I could see him coming off the bench. This would help lower his minuets, make it effect the team less when he missed a game and let Castle lead the team more. If Castle doesnt work then they could put someone else in there next to him.

Timvp said it. I think CP3 also said it to a reporter.

[Mr. Peabody]

I can already see the meltdown here when Castle is stuck on the second unit watching Keldon take ill-advised 3s.

[talkspurs]

Timvp said it. I think CP3 also said it to a reporter.

I must have missed that but I just looked it up and saw the report on it. I am not big on him starting but I doubt they will ask me.

[SpursFan86]

Yeah, it has been reported that one of the main appeals of coming to SA from CP3’s perspective was to prove he’s still capable of being a high impact starter.

It’s also pretty wild to think that Castle would just be given the starting job over a guy of CP3’s caliber :lol Even in CP3’s late age it would be shocking if Castle is a better player at this juncture.

[scott]

Either way, bench unit is looking rough AF. Barnes would help that and even if he is starting, I think TD 21 has the idea nailed as far as how rotations will work. Hopefully we see a lot of minutes with Devin leading the second unit as someone mentioned as well. Pop is going to have to get a little more creative with his rotations than the wholesale unit swaps we've seen in recent years.

[DAF86]

Wemby, Paul, Vassell, Keldon, Tre. I don't know if Castle is gonna get as many on ball reps as people here think, tbh.

[scott]

This goes against convention, and certainly likely against what was promised to certain players... but I wouldn't mind us starting out with our best lineup from last year, which posted an impressive +20.8 Net Rating in 142 minutes across 39 games (our second most frequently used lineup, and what was our "closing lineup"): Jones-Vassell-Johnson-Sochan-Wemby.

That lineup was 5th best lineup in terms of Net Rating in the entire league last year with a qualifier of at least 100 minutes played, and ours actually comes from the largest sample of games played. The only four better lineups all came from playoff teams:

#1 - PHI - Batum - Harris - Embiid - Melton - Maxey +34.0 - 219 min (14 games)
#2 - NYK - Hartenstein - Hart - Brunson - DiVincenzo - McBride +31.1 - 172 min (14 games)
#3 - CLE - LeVert - Niang - Garland - Okoro - Mobley +23.1 - 118 min (17 games)
#4 - MIL - Lopez - Lillard - Giannis - Connaughton - Beasley +21.7 - 120 min (26 games)

Of the four above and the Spurs at #5, the Spurs had the second best DEFRTG at 96.6, just behind MIL at 95.7.

Roll out that lineup and have Paul/Castle/Champ/Barnes/Collins be your bench. If Collins regains his shooting touch, the shooting of the second unit is going to be significantly better. The bench actually looks a lot better than other compositions here.

Of course, I'm sure Paul has a promise to start, and Keldon has pushed to a 6th man role... but that would be interesting.

[Raven]

i give him like a 15% chance to start.

[slick'81]

With pop wth knows

[Chinook]

Something that may not be apparent from the stats is that the Spurs players could behave differently in closing situations than the rest of the game. Like in a close game, Wemby's defense could be more focused and thus better able to cover for defensive weaknesses. The Spurs are potentially running more deliberate actions on offense and given Jones the ball more while limiting the free styling of the other guys. The opposing team playing for focused sets could mean the ball is in their best scorers' hands more, making Sochan's on-ball defense more useful. Johnson's a strong rebounder for his position, and the heightened emphasis on securing boards at the end of games works to reinforce his strengths. Vassell's ability to make tough shots means teams are going to expect him to have the ball late in games, and that increased focus would allow for Devin's budding play-making to shine through.

I wouldn't know if any or all of those theories are supported by data. It would take a deeper analysis to figure that out. But I'm just saying that it's possible some lineups work well when they're allowed to be situational and wouldn't be the same if they played a lot outside of those situations. It's like how GS' "death lineup" had to be used with care so it could stay a massive positive. They couldn't survive if they were forced to play that small against conventional lineups the majority of the game. However, depending one who starts, I don't see why the above lineup couldn't be a regular stint after the first subs of the half.

Sample rotation (bolded name represent a player subbing in):




PG
SG
SF
PF
C


12:00
Paul
Vassell
Castle
Sochan
Wembanyama


07:00
Jones
Vassell
Johnson
Sochan
Wembanyama


04:00
Jones
Vassell
Johnson
Barnes
Collins


Quarter







12:00
Jones
Castle
Johnson
Barnes
Collins


09:00
Castle
Champangie
Barnes
Wembanyama
Collins


07:00
Castle
Champangie
Barnes
Sochan
Wembanyama


05:00
Paul
Vassell
Champangie
Sochan
Wembanyama


03:00
Paul
Vassell
Johnson
Sochan
Wembanyama


Half








If my calculations are correct that should be:
10 minutes for Paul
17 minutes for Vassell
12 minutes for Castle (including 4 at PG)
15 minutes for Sochan
17 minutes for Wembanyama
10 minutes for Jones
6 minutes for Champagnie
13 minutes for Johnson
11 minutes for Barnes
9 minutes for Collins

That's a nine-man rotation which is what makes the most sense for a younger team with establishing stars but which is still trying to spread developmental minutes around. It would be difficult to have a 10th player, because even if you reduce some guys' minutes, others could stand to have more minutes anyway. Every position has three guys playing there except for SF (four) and center (two), so there are a lot of different lineups that put players in positions to where they have different responsibilities. I think something like this would be really good to start the year so the team can get a sense of what works. But we'll probably see and 11-man rotation with Branham and Wesley getting minutes and Barnes starting.

[onechance87]

Only way that happens is if castle dominates the summer league and training camp with making outside shots and
being a great playmaker.I expect him to get his shot at starting pg eventually,Cause i see pop sitting paul alot of games for rest anyways.

[scott]

I like that, thanks Chinook. Assuming that the halves are identical, that's 6 min/game of last year's closing lineup (which is a considerable increase over what they averaged last year) + another 6 min/game of functionally the same lineup but with Paul in for Tre. It would be fascinating to compare and contrast those two lineups, though it wouldn't control for the situational variance you point out. It would also be nice if we could see Wemby and Vassell put in 34 mpg on a regular basis, but my guess is that that will trim back some.

The only glaring issue I see is a 7-min stretch at the end of the first and the start of the 2nd where our defense would be quite suspect and worrisome. The start of the second concerns would be significantly mitigated if Castle starts out the defender we hope right out of the gates, but it's probably fair to assume a little bit of an assimilation struggle to start his career. Frankly, I'm not sure we can afford to go prolonged stretches without one of Wemby or Sochan on the floor. A swap for Collins for Lopez (which is off the table now without the cap room) would have majorly alleviated this, as would a swap of Collins for a healthy, one-year-more developed Bassey, which injury I'm afraid has robbed us of (and Bassey may very well be gone).

[Ice009]

Timvp said it. I think CP3 also said it to a reporter.

Has there been interviews with CP since the signing was announced? I haven't read or seen any video with comments from him.

[heyheymymy]

Nice work Chinook. Great way to visualize how the team may stagger lineups.

[mudyez]

It should be (tight rotation...with the others sprinkeling in)...

C: WEMBY, Zollins
Fs: SOCHAN (def), BARNES (vet), Johnson (off)
Gs: Castle (def), PAUL (vet), VASSELL (off)

...CAPS as the starters...once Paul leaves Tre is back in the tight rotation but as the bench guy.

[DAF86]

It might not be the greatest of fits, but I think it makes the most sense to start both Castle and Sochan. It makes no sense to start a 32 journeyman like Barnes over any of them.

Paul, Vassell, Castle, Sochan, Wemby and see how to make it work.

Barnes' shooting and size would also be needed in the 2nd unit, which projects to be very limited on those aspects (Tre, Branham, Keldon, Barnes, Collins).

[montgod]

Developing Wemby with a real point guard in CP is likely more highly prioritized then handing the keys to a rookie over a top point guard of all time. Just thinking big picture.

Fully agree. I think Paul's main job coming in is to present how the offense should work and the success from running it right along with how to be a true PG. I think once that is established and Castle/rest of team does well, maybe Paul takes on less minutes and it possibly looked to be traded to a contender.


Amen Thompson, last years #4 pick, started 23 games for a Houston team at a similar type development stage. Would expect similar for Castle. His starts will come as replacements for injured/resting starters.
I think this is a perfect example of what Castle can be/will be.

[BackHome]

I am cool with that as I want him to play but I don’t want to rush him and destroy his confidence

[onechance87]

It might not be the greatest of fits, but I think it makes the most sense to start both Castle and Sochan. It makes no sense to start a 32 journeyman like Barnes over any of them.

Paul, Vassell, Castle, Sochan, Wemby and see how to make it work.

Barnes' shooting and size would also be needed in the 2nd unit, which projects to be very limited on those aspects (Tre, Branham, Keldon, Barnes, Collins).

nope...It makes no sense to have players in the starting lineup who cant shoot.This will only hurt and make it harder for wemby to operate.
The opponents game plan will just be to double wemby and dare socan and castle to take open shots.Unles sochan or castle become better
shooters,Barnes gotta start to give wemby some space.

[LeBowen]

nope...It makes no sense to have players in the starting lineup who cant shoot.This will only hurt and make it harder for wemby to operate.
The opponents game plan will just be to double wemby and dare socan and castle to take open shots.Unles sochan or castle become better
shooters,Barnes gotta start to give wemby some space.

Those few shots he had the other night were enough for me to conclude that Castle shouldn't be put in the same non-shooting tier as Jeremy.
His jumpshot looks good and functional, while Jeremy's still sends shivers down my spine whenever I see him attempt a 3pt.

Castle will probably be a bad shooter in his first season, but way better than Jeremy and teams giving him Ben Simmons treatment on the perimeter.

[montgod]

Popovich didn't play Splitter for like three years. Nothing is guaranteed.

Different circumstances where Spurs were trying to win now mode and Splitter re-signed with his Spanish club for like 2 yrs after getting drafted btw Spurs. So he wasn't even available and probably wouldn't have started over Oberto/Elson. They also had Mahinmi who was a rookie that year and seeing what he could do.

[spurraider21]

Your day 1 starting 5 will be.

Paul
Vassell
Barnes
Sochan
Wemby
yeah it would be a pretty big upset for this not to happen

based on the matchups, they can have Sochan/Barnes cross-match. Barnes can defend smaller 4's and enable to Sochan to match onto the other team's top player, if need be.

Castle probably wears a couple of hats this year... as a reserve wing and point, depending on the rest of the lineup. main bench unit something like Tre/Castle/Champagnie/Keldon/Zollins

[SpursFan86]

yeah it would be a pretty big upset for this not to happen

based on the matchups, they can have Sochan/Barnes cross-match. Barnes can defend smaller 4's and enable to Sochan to match onto the other team's top player, if need be.

Castle probably wears a couple of hats this year... as a reserve wing and point, depending on the rest of the lineup. main bench unit something like Tre/Castle/Champagnie/Keldon/Zollins

Ugh, seeing it listed out just makes it look so unappealing :lol I know Pop will (hopefully) stagger things + those guys will be going up against other teams’ weak benches a lot too, but geez. That lineup just looks so underwhelming from a shooting/defense standpoint. Guess it’s an improvement over last year at least.

[DAF86]

nope...It makes no sense to have players in the starting lineup who cant shoot.This will only hurt and make it harder for wemby to operate.
The opponents game plan will just be to double wemby and dare socan and castle to take open shots.Unles sochan or castle become better
shooters,Barnes gotta start to give wemby some space.

Last season we had Tre and Sochan in the SL, now it would be the same, just replace Tre with Castle. And before saying that lineup didn't work, bare in mind that Tre, Vassell, Keldon, Sochan, Wemby had the 5th best rating in the entire league last season.

Also, you need to balance the 2nd unit a bit too. Without Barnes' shooting and size, the 2nd unit lacks in both aspects.

I agree it isn't ideal, but I think the smartest thing to do would be to start the season with that lineup I proposed (CP3, Vassell, Castle, Sochan, Wemby), if it doesn't work, you can always change it up, but I think it is better to give the pieces that are thought to be part of the future a more relevant role than journeymen vets that will be irrelevant for us in a couple of years.

[spurraider21]

Ugh, seeing it listed out just makes it look so unappealing :lol I know Pop will (hopefully) stagger things + those guys will be going up against other teams’ weak benches a lot too, but geez. That lineup just looks so underwhelming from a shooting/defense standpoint. Guess it’s an improvement over last year at least.
Tre actually hit 42% of his 3's post all star break last year. granted, it was low volume (about 3.5 attempts per game)... and it wasnt like he was pulling up behind screens or anything, but if he can be a reasonable catch and shoot guy, it goes a long way, esp in lineups with castle on the floor.

keldon is at least capable of shooting. zollins shouldnt be out there with his main intention being to launch 3's, but he theoretically can be a late shot clock release valve as well.

also yeah, i hope we dont get full hockey shifts

[onechance87]

Those few shots he had the other night were enough for me to conclude that Castle shouldn't be put in the same non-shooting tier as Jeremy.
His jumpshot looks good and functional, while Jeremy's still sends shivers down my spine whenever I see him attempt a 3pt.

Castle will probably be a bad shooter in his first season, but way better than Jeremy and teams giving him Ben Simmons treatment on the perimeter.

bro it was one summer league game.Castle also did this this in college.He would make a couple of threes in one game,Then would
disappear the next few games.Hes just gotta be confident and consistent in his shot and has a real good chance to be really good.

[LeBowen]

bro it was one summer league game.Castle also did this this in college.He would make a couple of threes in one game,Then would
disappear the next few games.Hes just gotta be confident and consistent in his shot and has a real good chance to be really good.

I'm not saying he'll be a good shooter, I just think he'll become somewhat reliable way sooner than Jeremy because his mechanics are functional.
Those few attempts off the dribble are several tiers above anything we've seen from Jeremy in shooting department.

[BSfromTX]

Didn't Castle make it known before the draft that he didn't want to go to a team that planned to use him as a wing?

[onechance87]

Didn't Castle make it known before the draft that he didn't want to go to a team that planned to use him as a wing?

he kinda backtracked his comments after he was drafted,But believes he still best at pq.He will get his chance to
prove if hes a pg or not.

[dbestpro]

I like the idea of Sochan having to earn his minutes and starting on the bench. He makes too many low BBIQ plays and needs to elevate his thinking game.

[onechance87]

I like the idea of Sochan having to earn his minutes and starting on the bench. He makes too many low BBIQ plays and needs to elevate his thinking game.

or we need to elevate our coaching and scouting.Some employees in the front office may need to be replaced.

[DR_Admiral]

It doesn't matter whether he starts in the season opener - having CP3 start in front of him shouldn't be viewed as a slight. But I fully expect Castle to be starting by game 30ish at the latest.

[Chinook]

So I wanted to make a sample rotation that incorporated some feedback:




PG
SG
SF
PF
C


12:00
Paul
Vassell
Barnes
Sochan
Wembanyama


07:00
Jones
Vassell
Johnson
Sochan
Wembanyama


05:00
Jones
Vassell
Champagnie
Johnson
Collins


02:00
Castle
Champagnie
Johnson
Barnes
Collins


Quarter







12:00
Castle
Champagnie
Johnson
Barnes
Wembanyama


10:00
Jones
Castle
Champagnie
Barnes
Wembanyama


09:00
Jones
Castle
Champagnie
Barnes
Wembanyama


07:00
Jones
Castle
Champagnie
Sochan
Collins


05:00
Paul
Vassell
Castle
Sochan
Collins


03:00
Paul
Vassell
Johnson
Sochan
Wembanyama


Half









Minutes Distribution:





Total
PG
SG
SF
PF
C


Paul
10
10
0
0
0
0


Jones
10
10
0
0
0
0


Vassell
15
0
15
0
0
0




Champagnie



12
0
4
8
0
0


Castle
11
4
5
2
0
0


Johnson
12
0
0
9
3
0


Sochan
14
0
0
0
14
0


Barnes
12
0
0
5
7
0


Wembanyama
15
0
0
0
0
15


Collins
9
0
0
0
0
9


Team
120
24
24
24
24
24




Thoughts:

So this is as close to the same distribution as I could get while starting Barnes. I don't love this move, as I think both Barnes and Sochan are obvious PFs, and getting caught in who "could" play the three overlooks who "should" play there. The Spurs have multiple wings that need minutes and shouldn't be giving some to a player who wouldn't be in their best position. The main results of that are that Castle gets in the game quite a bit later and that Johnson has to play some PF. You could give Castle Champagnie's distribution to get him the the game earlier, but I like his first stint being as a PG as well as him having those couple of minutes playing with Paul.

I also broke up Jones' minutes into two stints to give Castle PG minutes during the quarter transition as opposed to just in the middle of the second and broke Wemby's minutes into three stints to give him more rest breaks. I reduced Vassel's and Wemby's minutes, and like with Barnes starting, I don't love it. But it's probably realistic. No one called me on my inability to count last time, but the rotation I had created before did have 10 players in it. I realized that when I tried to carve out another stint and realized every position already had a primary backup. Such a role could still be carved out of Champ's and Keldon's early second-quarter minutes. But it would be nice if the Spurs avoided that. There will be plenty of time to give non-rotation players mintues when guys sit.

Overall, I don't know if this rotation creates the same variance in scenarios for the Spurs as the previous attempt did. We don't see any Wemby at PF due to him losing that two-minute stint with Collins. If Wemby and Sochan are going to both start and close, it would be pretty difficult to stagger their minutes within the minutes restrictions reality imposes. In the previous version, that meant Barnes and Collins were the front court for some time. This version gives us Jones, Vassell, Champagnie, Johnson and Collins, which feels like the lineup that will struggle the most on that end. Again, before folks freak out, this is more of what I think could work to start the season. Hopefully if Wemby and to a lesser extent Vassell show they should have the extra minutes, the team should open those up for them. Hopefully Castle shows himself to be a defensive plus right away and can use this bench era to shore up non-Wemby minutes. All things considered, it looks like a solid rotation compared to what they ran last year. Replace Collins with Lopez, and you probably have a pretty strong offering overall.

[slick'81]

Cp3 gonna make castle a star

[scott]

Thanks for another scenario, Chinook. Unfortunately I don't think there is anyway around the fact that there is going to have to be a decent stretch (this time it's the last 5 min of the quarter) where things are going to look pretty ugly on both sides of the ball, and we might see some extremely frustrating +/- stats as a result. It's just a function of the work-in-progress nature of this roster and the fact that we still have a talent deficiency. That's the way it goes though.

[Obstructed_View]

Different circumstances where Spurs were trying to win now mode and Splitter re-signed with his Spanish club for like 2 yrs after getting drafted btw Spurs. So he wasn't even available and probably wouldn't have started over Oberto/Elson. They also had Mahinmi who was a rookie that year and seeing what he could do.
No, I'm talking about when he was in town, sitting on the bench, and the Spurs were a 1 seed who got manhandled by an 8 seed.