Spurs 2024-25 Win O/U

[MannyIsGod]

1812708582984397191

35.5 seems a bit higher than some on here thought but it looks fair to me.

[Seventyniner]

35.5 seems high to me. If I were forced to take a side I would pick the under.

[Uriel]

Over. Barring major injury, I see this team making a huge jump and becoming a 40-win team.

[Joseph Kony]

"Anyone who takes the under is an idiot"

-Mrs. Body

[MultiTroll]

Don't underestimate Popplevich.

Last years 28 or whatever it was.

[jhfenton]

That's a pretty good line. If I were a bettor, I wouldn't find that attractive in either direction.

I've been guessing 38 wins +/- 3 (ie. 35-41), so if you made me guess, I'd say just slightly over.

[KingKev]

Very fair line and I wouldn’t put any risk on that. This team full steam i’m hitting over but PATFO is very calculated in what they are doing which is likely a late lottery team with some potential to push for the play-in.

[SpursFan86]

Yeah probably a couple of wins higher than I expected…if it was 32-33 I was planning on betting the over pretty easily but 35.5 is much less attractive.

Will probably stay away from it but if I had to choose I’d still lean over.

[dbestpro]

Over. I cant help but keep thinking what Alcindor did with Oscar.

[3&D_TBH]

Over cause fuck it but that is a fair line.

[Arguendo]

Over. Barring major injury, I see this team making a huge jump and becoming a 40-win team.
I think 35 is very reasonable, but lots of upside variance.

To me it comes down to Wemby G/MP. If Wemby plays 80 games at 34+ a game, 40+ is very reasonable, but I think he play 70ish @ 32/mpg, and the Spurs lose almost every game he misses.
So Spurs go 35-35 in Wemby games and maybe win 1/2 without him...that seems reasonable and still a huge jump yr/yr.

[fafo]

Will depend on health. With last year's early growing pains out of the way, the addition of solid vets, and other teams tanking for Flagg, I feel like the over is easily doable. But if they continue to be hyper cautious like they were with Victor's ankle roll last December, who knows.

[LeBowen]

Will depend on if Pop actually tries to win games or continues fucking around with the lineups.
If they're serious about winning, injury free and CP3 doesn't go to a contender, I'd say it's a realistic number.

Wemby will be ridiculous and a top10 player. The team will actually be functional with CP3 and Barnes, we just need Devin to take the next step.

[Leetonidas]

32-35 wins sounds about right

[ambchang]

Once bitten twice shy. Under for me.

[Pauleta14]

1812708582984397191

35.5 seems a bit higher than some on here thought but it looks fair to me.

If you take away the 1st month with Sochan PG and Zollins starting, Vic without position etc

The BS minutes limited from a BS injury of Vic

The BS coaching and rotations to soft tank

Just that would have made last season's team a 30 wins for sure

Without injuries this team MUST reach 40 wins imo

[exstatic]

ST stampedes to bet the under…then we get Lauri. :lol

[heyheymymy]

Think Spurs put CP3 bonuses at 32 and they are "frugal" so I feel like that's probably pretty locked in

I'd take this under. It's a long season, 35 over would require a lot of things to go right. Realistically, someone will miss time, someone will fail to progress, someone will tinker with rotations/lineups.

I think Spurs will be better than last season for sure. Going out to get vets will help progress and at least one player will turn a corner (Dev, Sochan etc).

[heyheymymy]

Yeah good point ex

If spurs get Lauri, gotta figure 35 becomes the new low end expectation

Exactly why I'm bearish on a 35 over right now. Vets are nice and help and things should be better than last season imho. But a win now move on a guy like Lauri is a whole other ballgame

[heyheymymy]

also kinda doubtful on LAL hitting 44.5

[scott]

I would have predicted the first lines to come in at 33.5, so this is pretty close.

Wonder if the DK book knows the irrational optimism of Spurs fans and is just pricing themselves in for a little extra cushion :lol

I hate Sports betting for the most part anyway (but do have $10 on the Spurs to win the title at +15000), but I definitely wouldn't want to lay down anything on this line in the middle of the summer.

[SpurSpike]

Wonder why the Spurs are not one of the teems that aren't listed due to trade speculation. ��

[scott]

Wonder why the Spurs are not one of the teems that aren't listed due to trade speculation. ��

:pop: that's not who we are

[lefty20]

Interesting thing of note is that the Hawks o/u is set under ours. Only by 1 game, but still.

[DPG21920]

One of CHA or TOR will hit their overs. One of those teams, along with ATL if Trae is mostly healthy, will be play-in teams.

[scott]

Thought it might be worthwhile to look at these O/U and Tankathon rankings side by side. This is starting with the worst teams (so, draft seeding order). I'll keep this updated up through the start of the season and then we can compare with the final pre-lotto draft order. Can add other odds sources over time as well.

I presume DK would have both UTA and CHI worse than us if they weren't off right now - so both sources agree that we'd be the 9th and 10th seed (but in reverse order) for now.



Team
Tankathon 7/15/24
DK O/U 7/15
DK O/U Rank 7/15


BKN
1
19.5
1


WAS
2
22.5
2


DET
3
24.5
4


UTA
4

#N/A


CHA
5
29.5
5


POR
6
22.5
2


CHI
7

#N/A


TOR
8
31.5
6


SA
9
35.5
8


ATL
10
34.5
7


HOU
11
41.5
9


SAC
12
45.5
13


LAC
13
41.5
9


NOP
14
45.5
13


ORL
15
47.5
18


CLE
16
47.5
18


IND
17
45.5
13


LAL
18
44.5
11


MEM
19
46.5
16


GSW
20

#N/A


PHX
21
46.5
16


MIA
22
44.5
11


PHI
23
51.5
21


MIL
24
51.5
21


NYC
25
51.5
21


DAL
26
50.5
20


MIN
27
52.5
24


OKC
28
54.5
26


DEN
29
52.5
24


BOS
30
57.5
27

[exstatic]

One of CHA or TOR will hit their overs. One of those teams, along with ATL if Trae is mostly healthy, will be play-in teams.

I don’t see TOR doing that. It would be a 7 game jump to clear that hurdle. I just haven’t seen acquisitions that would lead to that kind of jump, and why move down in a draft like 2025?

I also don’t see ATL doing anything remotely like that. Their FO has been playing Jenga with their roster the past few seasons, offloading Heurter, Collin’s, DJ with little current tangible return. You keep stripping parts off, and whether you’re tanking or not, your team will collapse. Doesn’t strike me as a happy locker room, either.

The most surprising thing about this list is that for a year of obvious tanking, the lowest O/U line is 19.5, and there are only three other teams under 25. If you could pick out the obvious tankers and spread your bets on like 4 of them, you could probably cash out well. I’d definitely go under on BKN and WSH, and DET and POR are probably likely unders, too.

[scott]

Early O/Us play on the irrational exuberance of fans. I expect some of those to come down as we get closer to the start of the season after they've locked in the suckers.

[Seventyniner]

The more teams that tank, the harder it is for any particular team to go under 20 wins, especially when so many of the tanking teams will be in the same conference.

I would pick the Blazers to have the worst record in the league purely due to strength of schedule.

[KingKev]

Early O/Us play on the irrational exuberance of fans. I expect some of those to come down as we get closer to the start of the season after they've locked in the suckers.

Very little if any actual risk exchanges hands on these lines tbh.

[DPG21920]

I don’t see TOR doing that. It would be a 7 game jump to clear that hurdle. I just haven’t seen acquisitions that would lead to that kind of jump, and why move down in a draft like 2025?

I also don’t see ATL doing anything remotely like that. Their FO has been playing Jenga with their roster the past few seasons, offloading Heurter, Collin’s, DJ with little current tangible return. You keep stripping parts off, and whether you’re tanking or not, your team will collapse. Doesn’t strike me as a happy locker room, either.

The most surprising thing about this list is that for a year of obvious tanking, the lowest O/U line is 19.5, and there are only three other teams under 25. If you could pick out the obvious tankers and spread your bets on like 4 of them, you could probably cash out well. I’d definitely go under on BKN and WSH, and DET and POR are probably likely unders, too.

They way I look at it is:

It took 36 wins to be the 10th seed last season.

Pistons, Wizards, Nets aren’t likely to get there. That leave Bulls, Raptors, Hornets and Hawks for 9 & 10. And last season that was 36 and 39 wins. With teams tanking this year, those spots should have at least those amounts of wins as well.

So to me, I think CHA, ATL are the most likely to have those spots which would put them at over their totals. Bulls got worse and likely come down from 39 wins IMO after losing DeRozan and Caruso. But in theory, if Lavine is healthy, they may not step back too far since he functionally replaces DeRozan.

[DPG21920]

I’d probably take over on DET as well.

[GAustex]

Under

[spurraider21]

I don’t see TOR doing that. It would be a 7 game jump to clear that hurdle. I just haven’t seen acquisitions that would lead to that kind of jump, and why move down in a draft like 2025?

I also don’t see ATL doing anything remotely like that. Their FO has been playing Jenga with their roster the past few seasons, offloading Heurter, Collin’s, DJ with little current tangible return. You keep stripping parts off, and whether you’re tanking or not, your team will collapse. Doesn’t strike me as a happy locker room, either.

The most surprising thing about this list is that for a year of obvious tanking, the lowest O/U line is 19.5, and there are only three other teams under 25. If you could pick out the obvious tankers and spread your bets on like 4 of them, you could probably cash out well. I’d definitely go under on BKN and WSH, and DET and POR are probably likely unders, too.
poodle missed 32 games, and their breakout player scottie barnes missed 22 games. they also wont have the same in-season turnover this year as opposed to the ever looming rumors of Siakam/Anunoby moves. i think stability will do them some good.

[Ariel]

Yeah good point ex

If spurs get Lauri, gotta figure 35 becomes the new low end expectation

Exactly why I'm bearish on a 35 over right now. Vets are nice and help and things should be better than last season imho. But a win now move on a guy like Lauri is a whole other ballgame
Trading for Lauri and getting anything under 45 wins should be viewed as a colossal failure, that number wasn't even good enough to make the play in last year. Might as well fire people if that happens.

[scott]

Trading for Lauri and getting anything under 45 wins should be viewed as a colossal failure, that number wasn't even good enough to make the play in last year. Might as well fire people if that happens.

For those of us who enjoy a little cynicism… sounds like a good reason for this FO to not go and do things like pursue Lauri. They’ve got a perfect situation now, collecting those league high paychecks with no expectations. Where do I apply for jobs like this?

[Splits]

36 wins last season is the 10th seed, which ATL rolled into the #1 pick. WE ARE GETTING FLAGG

[jjspur]

If it were another coach and front office, sure I could see 35 wins, but this is pop and the spurs front office. They always have some sneaky plan up their sleeves which may or may not work. If Vassell, or Paul or even Wemby get hurt, I can easily see them tanking again. This playbook isn't new. They tanked in a so so draft, they'll surely tank in a good draft, so I'd take 35 wins with a grain of salt.

[exstatic]

If it were another coach and front office, sure I could see 35 wins, but this is pop and the spurs front office. They always have some sneaky plan up their sleeves which may or may not work. If Vassell, or Paul or even Wemby get hurt, I can easily see them tanking again. This playbook isn't new. They tanked in a so so draft, they'll surely tank in a good draft, so I'd take 35 wins with a grain of salt.

They tanked in a so so draft to get a pick to convey by positioning themselves below TOR to increase their odds. That’s not the case this year. In fact, we want to be better than ATL to push their pick that we own higher in the lottery.

If Wemby gets hurt, they won’t have to try to tank. It’ll just happen.

[Seventyniner]

The Spurs stood pat last summer and didn't even try to improve the team from the previous tanking season. They rented out their cap space for picks/swaps and cut almost every player they traded for. A hard tank would have involved sitting Wemby a lot and he would have hated it, so we got a soft tank instead.

This summer the Spurs proactively added Paul and Barnes, were interested in Brandon Ingram (per Shams, a very reliable source), and have been talking with Utah about a Markkanen trade. They aren't tanking this year at all.

[exstatic]

The Spurs stood pat last summer and didn't even try to improve the team from the previous tanking season. They rented out their cap space for picks/swaps and cut almost every player they traded for. A hard tank would have involved sitting Wemby a lot and he would have hated it, so we got a soft tank instead.

This summer the Spurs proactively added Paul and Barnes, were interested in Brandon Ingram (per Shams, a very reliable source), and have been talking with Utah about a Markkanen trade. They aren't tanking this year at all.

My problem with the whole Shams thing is that he’s a story breaker, he wants it known what he knows. Where’s the Tweet? Shouldn’t the local fish wrap guy have retweeted it? Is there a Tweet?

[itzsoweezee]

Thought it might be worthwhile to look at these O/U and Tankathon rankings side by side. This is starting with the worst teams (so, draft seeding order). I'll keep this updated up through the start of the season and then we can compare with the final pre-lotto draft order. Can add other odds sources over time as well.

I presume DK would have both UTA and CHI worse than us if they weren't off right now - so both sources agree that we'd be the 9th and 10th seed (but in reverse order) for now.



Team
Tankathon 7/15/24
DK O/U 7/15
DK O/U Rank 7/15


BKN
1
19.5
1


WAS
2
22.5
2


DET
3
24.5
4


UTA
4

#N/A


CHA
5
29.5
5


POR
6
22.5
2


CHI
7

#N/A


TOR
8
31.5
6


SA
9
35.5
8


ATL
10
34.5
7


HOU
11
41.5
9


SAC
12
45.5
13


LAC
13
41.5
9


NOP
14
45.5
13


ORL
15
47.5
18


CLE
16
47.5
18


IND
17
45.5
13


LAL
18
44.5
11


MEM
19
46.5
16


GSW
20

#N/A


PHX
21
46.5
16


MIA
22
44.5
11


PHI
23
51.5
21


MIL
24
51.5
21


NYC
25
51.5
21


DAL
26
50.5
20


MIN
27
52.5
24


OKC
28
54.5
26


DEN
29
52.5
24


BOS
30
57.5
27



No way in hell the Lakers are winning 45 games with that lineup. If I were a gambling man, that would be easy money

[Ariel]

This summer the Spurs proactively added Paul and Barnes, were interested in Brandon Ingram (per Shams, a very reliable source), and have been talking with Utah about a Markkanen trade. They aren't tanking this year at all.
Shams reports what they want him to report, you can go back for the Trae rumors he himself helped spread for proof. Much like Woj, he gets the scoop on certain transactions, particularly with some teams, in exchange for being of assistance to them in other situations (narrative/damage control, PR, helping spread some rumors, etc). I wouldn't say he's a very reliable source when it comes to the Spurs.

[Seventyniner]

Shams is one of the most trusted sources in the league. I don't think he would jeopardize that position by making stuff up.

The Spurs inquiring about Brandon Ingram makes sense given their interest in Paul and Barnes. That doesn't mean the Spurs would be willing to pay a premium price for Ingram.

[Dex]

Turns out 35.5 was a pretty fair line.

Spurs finish at 34. Would have been different if we hadn't lost our coach and our superstar, but that's NBA for you.

[GAustex]

Under

[LeBowen]

Will depend on if Pop actually tries to win games or continues fucking around with the lineups.
If they're serious about winning, injury free and CP3 doesn't go to a contender, I'd say it's a realistic number.

Wemby will be ridiculous and a top10 player. The team will actually be functional with CP3 and Barnes, we just need Devin to take the next step.

The next step wasn't taken.

[Dex]

32-35 wins sounds about right

Good call.


also kinda doubtful on LAL hitting 44.5

Whoops...but no one could have foreseen the Mavericks gifting them freaking Luka.

[spursistan]

The next step wasn't taken.
Castle's emergence and the 2 vets better-than-expected reliability made up for Sochan/Vassell stagnation/regression..And once again the team barely misses them similar to late last season. I feel like whatever you call "The core" for this team they both don't belong to it anymore (i.e expendable)

[Dex]

Castle's emergence and the 2 vets better-than-expected reliability made up for Sochan/Vassell stagnation/regression..And once again the team barely misses them similar to late last season. I feel like whatever you call "The core" for this team they both don't belong to it anymore (i.e expendable)

The "core" of this team should now be Wemby/Fox/Castle.

Everybody else is now on the trading block.

And Sochan has become the new Collins as far as the guy I don't want to see on the floor anymore. The experiment failed, move on.

[spursistan]

Going 12-18 vs the East including 0-6 against mediocrities like Miami/Chicago/Hornets is where we likely missed out on the play-in. Plenty of room for improvement there record-wise.

Next season it is playoffs or bust. Spurs should very clearly be better than Kings/Dallas/Phoenix and in the same tier/jumble of Memphis, Minny, GSW, LAC and may be the Pelicans.

[baseline bum]

The next step wasn't taken.

It was right there around that corner he turned too

[scott]

Can't remember if there was a pre-season predictions thread and I'm too lazy too look for now... if anyone feels like finding a bumping it. Would be fun to go back and read some bangers.

[heyheymymy]

Good call.



Whoops...but no one could have foreseen the Mavericks gifting them freaking Luka.

I should never bet against LAL getting what they need. Even without Luka they were going to be taken care of with LBJ there. They looked in shambles at the time, 50 wins is an impressive finish.

[ambchang]

Good call.



Whoops...but no one could have foreseen the Mavericks gifting them freaking Luka.

Not only that, but the lakers had an abnormally good record based on their net rating. For some reason these things just somehow happens for the lakers much more than any other team, and never for small market teams, which I just find to be curious to say the least. The lakers are the 3rd seed in the west with a 50-32 record despite being only +1.2, which is significantly worse than any other team in the top 8. You’d have to go to #9 seed kings to find a wc team with a worse point differential than the lakers. In fact, their net rating puts them at an expected win of 44 games this season. They had a +6 which is quite significant as teams are generally within 1 or 2 games. A 44-38 season would again put them as a #8 seed. It’s just exceedingly odd.

At the same time, the lakers are at 23.3 FTA a game, sitting at #3 in the league, when they are a middle of the road #18/18/19 in 3PA, FG from 0-3 feet and 3-10 feet. They are also #25 in opponent FTA. This 2.8 FTA difference is far and away the biggest difference in the league. All other 29 teams follow a relatively predictable case of more 3p attempts, less shots from 0-3 and 3-10 feet, then you have less FTA, whereas the lakers just some now found a way to buck that trend. Just amazing basketball.