Why not just hold a national coin toss every 4 years instead of a national election?

[Millennial_Messiah]

Every 4 years each of the two parties goes back and forth on which side gets to call the coin. Coin is tossed fairly by a non-partisan individual. Winner of coin toss is awarded 4 year term. That way we can do away with wasting money and time on campaigning, voting, and political warfare. That would also de-polarize the country a lot because less people would complain and say the other side cheated and used dirty money etc if it's a fair, 50-50 coin toss.

Thoughts?

[Blake]

Or just have the election outcome based on the popular vote like every other normal election in the history of ever

[z0sa]

The only reason it's a cointoss (to you) is the EC. More, usually significantly more, are voting Democrat in all but one election since 2000.

[Winehole23]

The only reason it's a cointoss (to you) is the EC. More, usually significantly more, are voting Democrat in all but one election since 2000.you could dial it back to "since 1988" and still be right

[baseline bum]

Or just have the election outcome based on the popular vote like every other normal election in the history of ever

Electoral college should have been wiped away once slavery was since that was the whole point of it in the first place, eg for slaveowners to get representation for their slaves without giving them the right to vote. Would be nice to cast a vote that actually mattered every four years.

[pgardn]

Or just have the election outcome based on the popular vote like every other normal election in the history of ever

Because the Republicans will lose is what M and M really wants to say and knows.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Or just have the election outcome based on the popular vote like every other normal election in the history of ever

i'll be sure to bookmark this post in case Trump wins the national popular vote but loses by way of losing PA/MI/WI by like a thousand votes.

it's not a scenario that's too far fetched this year around imo

[Winehole23]

Electoral college should have been wiped away once slavery was since that was the whole point of it in the first place, eg for slaveowners to get representation for their slaves without giving them the right to vote. Would be nice to cast a vote that actually mattered every four years.After George Wallace got 46 electoral votes in 1968, the House voted for a constitutional amendment to switch to direct popular election. It died in the Senate.

I recommend clicking through to the Congressional debate. It's genteel, lucid and as pertinent now as ever.

1838021174967570893

1838074570118742426https://x.com/greggiroux/status/1838021174967570893

[Ef-man]

i'll be sure to bookmark this post in case Trump wins the national popular vote but loses by way of losing PA/MI/WI by like a thousand votes.

it's not a scenario that's too far fetched this year around imo

Another red wave wish cast :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

After George Wallace got 46 electoral votes in 1968, the House voted for a constitutional amendment to switch to direct popular election. It died in the Senate.

I recommend clicking through to the Congressional debate. It's genteel, lucid and as pertinent now as ever.

1838021174967570893



Both the House and Senate were Safe D at that period of US History with the coalescence of the Dixiecrat Democrats which are mostly modern (R)s outside of the VRA districts, though, along with the progressives in the northeast, union belt, and out west. And the vote itself was bipartisan and roughly equally the fault of both party.


Another red wave wish cast :lol
How is mentioning a possibility of a scenario of Trump losing a red wave wish cast?

even if the Senate and House go near worst case scenario for D's (it's have to be some very narrow split ticketing in a lot of states, possible but a very slim squeeze) and the Rs max out in both chambers with a 6-3 SCOTUS but Kamala beats Trump, it's a huge win for Democrats and a crushing blow to MAGA and probably the end of the MAGA movement forever. Even the Freedom Caucus is mostly dead. It's basically 2014 again in America.



Yam Tits winning popular vote is wish casting

Trump winning the popular vote means much more to the pride of partisan libs than actual pragmatist people.

I mean, would you rather win by getting favorable ref calls and making your free throws despite shooting a lower %, or, would you rather lose with a higher shooting percentage, less turnovers, but the other team got :cry 49/50 on free throws :cry ?? That is the question and the latter seems to be you libs' answer.

[Ef-man]

Both the House and Senate were Safe D at that period of US History with the coalescence of the Dixiecrat Democrats which are mostly modern (R)s outside of the VRA districts, though, along with the progressives in the northeast, union belt, and out west. And the vote itself was bipartisan and roughly equally the fault of both party.


How is mentioning a possibility of a scenario of Trump losing a red wave wish cast?

Yam Tits winning popular vote is wish casting

[Winehole23]

Both the House and Senate were Safe D at that period of US History with the coalescence of the Dixiecrat Democrats which are mostly modern (R)s outside of the VRA districts, though, along with the progressives in the northeast, union belt, and out west. And the vote itself was bipartisan and roughly equally the fault of both party.The broad bipartisan sentiment of the House in 1969 was that the possibilities of popular election losers winning the presidency and faithless electors are per se bad, and tend to delegitimate the system. I agree.

Won't happen unless the filibuster gets nuked, which I support. In normal democracies the majority rules.

[FrostKing]

Or just have the election outcome based on the popular vote like every other normal election in the history of ever
What's the point when people aren't ID'd, unlike the rest of us here in the 1st World

[ChumpDumper]

What's the point when people aren't ID'd, unlike the rest of us here in the 1st World

Prove there is widespread fraud.

[baseline bum]

What's the point when people aren't ID'd, unlike the rest of us here in the 1st World

LOL doesn't know that first world just means the US's allies in their war on the Soviets.

[Blake]

i'll be sure to bookmark this post in case Trump wins the national popular vote but loses by way of losing PA/MI/WI by like a thousand votes.

it's not a scenario that's too far fetched this year around imo

OK. We can also discuss gerrymandering and bookmark it later in the same fashion. A good policy/ procedure is a good policy/ procedure.

[TSA]

Yam Tits winning popular vote is wish castingHe's tied now in several National polls...it isn't wishcasting at this point.

https://x.com/QuantusInsights/status/1838953923123511442

[Winehole23]

Trump has a decent chance to win

[MultiTroll]

Trump has a decent chance to win
Immorality is big in the U.S., he sure does.

[Ef-man]

He's tied now in several National polls...it isn't wishcasting at this point.

https://x.com/QuantusInsights/status/1838953923123511442

several

:lol

[TSA]

several

:lol

what's funny about that?

[baseline bum]

Trump has a decent chance to win

He's got a great chance to win the electoral vote. Little chance at being the peoples' choice.

[Ef-man]

what's funny about that?

This is so typical of you.

If 4 out of 5 dentists recommend chewing sugarless gum, you would glorify the virtues of chewing whatever fringe shit that 5th dentist recommended.

You can't help yourself. :lol

[TSA]

This is so typical of you.

If 4 out of 5 dentists recommend chewing sugarless gum, you would glorify the virtues of chewing whatever fringe shit that 5th dentist recommended.

You can't help yourself. :lolThis is so typical of you.

Is the CNN/SSRS a fringe poll?
Is the Times/Sienna a fringe poll?

You just can't help yourself :lol

[Ef-man]

He's tied now in several National polls...it isn't wishcasting at this point.

https://x.com/QuantusInsights/status/1838953923123511442

“Based on regression analysis using Gallup's party ID and historical election results”

And you are a fringe liar :lol

[TSA]

“Based on regression analysis using Gallup's party ID and historical election results”

And you are a fringe liar :lol

Fringe liar? What does that even mean? What are you claiming I'm lying about?

[TSA]

This is so typical of you.

Is the CNN/SSRS a fringe poll?
Is the Times/Sienna a fringe poll?

You just can't help yourself :lol

Where did Ef-man go?

[ChumpDumper]

Which polls good now?

[Ef-man]

Yam Tits winning popular vote is wish casting


This is so typical of you.

Is the CNN/SSRS a fringe poll?
Is the Times/Sienna a fringe poll?

You just can't help yourself :lol

Where did Ef-man go?

The topic is about winning the popular vote, not the EC.

Do these polls show Yam Tits winning the popular vote?

Idiot :lol

[TSA]

The topic is about winning the popular vote, not the EC.

Do these polls show Yam Tits winning the popular vote?

Idiot :lol

Those are National polls you fucking idiot :rollin

[TSA]

Fringe liar? What does that even mean? What are you claiming I'm lying about?

Might as well just skip answering these and save yourself from more embarrassment you fucking dunce.

[Ef-man]

Those are National polls you fucking idiot :rollin

National polls (excluding your fringe polls) do not show Yam Tits winning the popular vote, idiot :lol

[TSA]

National polls (excluding your fringe polls) do not show Yam Tits winning the popular vote, idiot :lol

Is the CNN/SSRS a fringe poll?
Is the Times/Sienna a fringe poll?

[TSA]

Forum dunce forum duncing :lol

[Ef-man]

Is the CNN/SSRS a fringe poll?
Is the Times/Sienna a fringe poll?

Now you start with the answer me :lol

The national polls do not show Yam Tits winning the popular vote, idiot!!! Your fringe Nate Silvers might.

Do you know the difference between winning the popular vote vs EC? That was the discussion I was having with MM or are you that stupid to not understand?

Forum idiot crying muh National polls :lol

[Ef-man]

Muh answer me, answer me answer me!!!! :lol

[ChumpDumper]

TSA isn't posting Nate Silver stuff anymore.

One has to wonder why.

[Ef-man]

TSA isn't posting Nate Silver stuff anymore.

One has to wonder why.

Probably no longer fringy enough for him or Nate blocked him after a text wall of "answer me's!"

[TSA]

Now you start with the answer me :lol

The national polls do not show Yam Tits winning the popular vote, idiot!!! Your fringe Nate Silvers might.

Do you know the difference between winning the popular vote vs EC? That was the discussion I was having with MM or are you that stupid to not understand?

Forum idiot crying muh National polls :lolI have to ask you multiple times because you make idiotic statements/claims and then run from them when called out.

You claimed Trump winning the popular vote was wishcasting. I said Trump was tied in several National polls therefore Trump winning the popular vote is not wishcasting at this point. I never claimed those two National polls showed Trump winning the popular vote. You can't even keep track of your own stupidity. :lol

[TSA]

That was the discussion I was having with MM or are you that stupid to not understand?


I missed that :lol

MM brought up Trump losing the EC and you said he was wishcasting another red wave. How stupid are you?:lol

[Ef-man]

I have to ask you multiple times because you make idiotic statements/claims and then run from them when called out.

You claimed Trump winning the popular vote was wishcasting. I said Trump was tied in several National polls therefore Trump winning the popular vote is not wishcasting at this point. I never claimed those two National polls showed Trump winning the popular vote. You can't even keep track of your own stupidity. :lol

Wrong, you know that R's have not won the popular vote in ages and the polls do not show him ahead in the popular vote, idiot.

Stop trying to change the goalpost.

muh National posts :lol

[TSA]

Wrong, you know that R's have not won the popular vote in ages and the polls do not show him ahead in the popular vote, idiot.

Stop trying to change the goalpost.

muh National posts :lol

No goalpost was changed by me and the previous post prove it. There is no point to continue this discussion as it's clear you either aren't smart enough or are purposely lying.

[Ef-man]

No goalpost was changed by me and the previous post prove it. There is no point to continue this discussion as it's clear you either aren't smart enough or are purposely lying.

Yam Tits is not leading in the popular vote polls (fringe polls excluded) and implying so is wish casting.

Your capitulation is duly noted.

[Millennial_Messiah]

He's got a great chance to win the electoral vote. Little chance at being the peoples' choice.

Eh, with much of CA/NY/IL along with FL/TX swinging pretty substantially to the right compared to 2016 & 2020 (won't change the electoral outcomes in any of those states), but the 7-8 key swing states holding pretty much similar give or take a few percent compared to 2016/2020, I think all four scenarios are in play:

-Trump wins election and popular vote (20%)
-Trump loses popular vote, wins election (30%)
-Trump loses election and popular vote (30%)
-Trump wins popular vote, loses election (20%)


As for the Senate races the polls are DEFINITELY underestimating the GOP candidates in pretty much every case, in some cases substantially you'll see on election night. Or, polls there could (rightfully) tighten later into October. The shy Moreno, McCormick, Rogers, Hovde, even Lake voter is very real. Moreno was supposed to lose the primary to Dolan and he won by >20%. McCormick was supposed to lose to Dr. Oz AND Kathy Barnette by a wide margin in the May 17, 2022 primary but came up like 600 votes short even with the Trump, national GOP and McConnell endorsements going for Dr. Oz.

[baseline bum]

Eh, with much of CA/NY/IL along with FL/TX swinging pretty substantially to the right compared to 2016 & 2020 (won't change the electoral outcomes in any of those states), but the 7-8 key swing states holding pretty much similar give or take a few percent compared to 2016/2020, I think all four scenarios are in play:

-Trump wins election and popular vote (20%)
-Trump loses popular vote, wins election (30%)
-Trump loses election and popular vote (30%)
-Trump wins popular vote, loses election (20%)


As for the Senate races the polls are DEFINITELY underestimating the GOP candidates in pretty much every case, in some cases substantially you'll see on election night. Or, polls there could (rightfully) tighten later into October. The shy Moreno, McCormick, Rogers, Hovde, even Lake voter is very real. Moreno was supposed to lose the primary to Dolan and he won by >20%. McCormick was supposed to lose to Dr. Oz AND Kathy Barnette by a wide margin in the May 17, 2022 primary but came up like 600 votes short even with the Trump, national GOP and McConnell endorsements going for Dr. Oz.

What makes you think CA is going to swing to the right for Trump after he raised their taxes?

Odds will be more like
- Trump wins election and popular vote (5%)
- Trump loses popular vote, wins election (45%)
- Trump loses election and popular vote (50%)
- Trump wins popular vote, loses election (0%)

[Millennial_Messiah]

What makes you think CA is going to swing to the right for Trump after he raised their taxes?

Odds will be more like
- Trump wins election and popular vote (5%)
- Trump loses popular vote, wins election (45%)
- Trump loses election and popular vote (50%)
- Trump wins popular vote, loses election (0%) Will Hunting the most objective, active, insider Democrat on this message board who actually knows the politicians and is in a way a (D) internal but fair, has said the same exact thing

just look at 2022 compared to 2020, the margin was under 20% and a lot of the localized races went (R)... there's a large chunk of the population, largely suburbanites and working class Latinos, that are pissed with the Newsom administration and various cost of living increases through the roof, lifestyle decreases, overall societal decay in CA that's happened in the past decade-plus... the fact that they can't write off their 11-13.3% state income tax anymore since 2018 isn't going to be what they vote on tbh. It's much more of an issue in, say, the suburban Minnesota twin cities, though (D) state government including the VP nominee himself could also lower the tax burden there too tbh.

I don't think it's a zero percent chance Trump wins election and loses popular vote. 2022 was a decent example of how it could happen. Not saying midterms are everything, but that's essentially what 2022 equated to on the federal level.

[TSA]

Yam Tits is not leading in the popular vote polls (fringe polls excluded) and implying so is wish casting.

This is the goalpost move. You're such a dunce.

[baseline bum]

the fact that they can't write off their 11-13.3% state income tax anymore since 2018 isn't going to be what they vote on tbh.

It raped the GOP in California in 2020, don't see why people would all of a sudden forget Trump raised their taxes.

[baseline bum]

I don't think it's a zero percent chance Trump wins election and loses popular vote. 2022 was a decent example of how it could happen. Not saying midterms are everything, but that's essentially what 2022 equated to on the federal level.

There is no way, the electoral college is such welfare to the GOP. It's like if you played the Lakers and if at the end of 48 minutes the Lakers are ahead, Lakers win. If the game is tied, Lakers win. If you finish up 1 the Lakers win. If you finish up 2 the Lakers win. If you finish up 3 or 4 you flip a coin to see who wins. If you finish up 5 or more, you (probably) win.

[Millennial_Messiah]

It raped the GOP in California in 2020, don't see why people would all of a sudden forget Trump raised their taxes.

Because that's not a top five issue in California anymore. Neither is abortion for any state that has abortion already enshrined permanently into legality like CA, NY, IL etc so the voters on the left that vote on that issue will be much less enthused compared to states where it's either on the ballot, volatile, or outright banned.


There is no way, the electoral college is such welfare to the GOP. It's like if you played the Lakers and if at the end of 48 minutes the Lakers are ahead, Lakers win. If the game is tied, Lakers win. If you finish up 1 the Lakers win. If you finish up 2 the Lakers win. If you finish up 3 or 4 you flip a coin to see who wins. If you finish up 5 or more, you (probably) win.
I smiled at the analogy because it reminded me of my childhood (the refs were always good for spotting the Lakers 4-5 extra points in a given game on average)... but it simply isn't true, you can't just go by 2020 and 2016 numbers from this. In 2004, for instance, the Democrats cried election fraud and election rigging (i.e. with voter suppression in Cleveland) in Ohio, specifically. Bush won Ohio by exactly 2.1%. He did, however, win the popular vote by 2.4%, securing over 50% of the national popular vote. So, if the Democrats and Kerry had indeed won Ohio, they would have won the electoral college despite losing the popular vote by over 2% and the GOP incumbent candidate receiving over 50% nationally. Who's crying foul now?

The 2022 election results specifically leaning left in the swing states and right in the deep red and deep blue states, showed us specifically how there is absolutely a path for Biden or Harris to defeat Trump in the electoral college and lose to Trump in the popular vote. I don't think it's the most likely scenario, but it's more plausible than you think.

[Ef-man]

This is the goalpost move. You're such a dunce.

That was the whole point of Yam Tits winning the popular vote being wish casting, idiot.

Keep up, muh National polls :lol

[Will Hunting]

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) the most objective, active, insider Democrat on this message board who actually knows the politicians and is in a way a (D) internal but fair, has said the same exact thing

just look at 2022 compared to 2020, the margin was under 20% and a lot of the localized races went (R)... there's a large chunk of the population, largely suburbanites and working class Latinos, that are pissed with the Newsom administration and various cost of living increases through the roof, lifestyle decreases, overall societal decay in CA that's happened in the past decade-plus... the fact that they can't write off their 11-13.3% state income tax anymore since 2018 isn't going to be what they vote on tbh. It's much more of an issue in, say, the suburban Minnesota twin cities, though (D) state government including the VP nominee himself could also lower the tax burden there too tbh.

I don't think it's a zero percent chance Trump wins election and loses popular vote. 2022 was a decent example of how it could happen. Not saying midterms are everything, but that's essentially what 2022 equated to on the federal level.
The chances of Trump winning the PV and losing the EC are definitely very close to 0% :lol. With Biden as the nominee there was a tiny chance at it happening just because of how much Biden was falling off a cliff in deep blue states while the whole “Scranton Joe!” act makes it so he could have overperformed in the upper Midwest / rust belt.

As whether CA moves right or left and what BB said - even though Trump did raise their taxes voters are stupid and they generally view high taxes / tax increases as policies Democrats should be blamed for whether or not it’s fair. Tens of millions of people claim that their taxes have gone up under Biden even though Biden has literally made no changes to individual income tax rates :lol.

Gavin Newsom meanwhile is a terrible governor who doesn’t actually do anything other than grandstand about how Glocktavius and Watermelonisha wouldn’t kill each other if not for the gun lobby. The local governance is California is terrible and in 2022 CA voters largely took that out on federal Dem candidates which I see happening again.

[Millennial_Messiah]

The chances of Trump winning the PV and losing the EC are definitely very close to 0% :lol. With Biden as the nominee there was a tiny chance at it happening just because of how much Biden was falling off a cliff in deep blue states while the whole “Scranton Joe!” act makes it so he could have overperformed in the upper Midwest / rust belt.

As whether CA moves right or left and what BB said - even though Trump did raise their taxes voters are stupid and they generally view high taxes / tax increases as policies Democrats should be blamed for whether or not it’s fair. Tens of millions of people claim that their taxes have gone up under Biden even though Biden has literally made no changes to individual income tax rates :lol.

Gavin Newsom meanwhile is a terrible governor who doesn’t actually do anything other than grandstand about how Glocktavius and Watermelonisha wouldn’t kill each other if not for the gun lobby. The local governance is California is terrible and in 2022 CA voters largely took that out on federal Dem candidates which I see happening again.
I agree regarding the California stuff and with the notion that Biden would have been the better candidate for the rust belt especially PA, and the scenario of 270D - 268R in the EC was much more likely with Biden than with Harris because Biden's rust belt appeal was much stronger than Harris's (and his sun belt appeal quite possibly somewhat weaker than Harris's). I don't think Kamala is necessarily more popular than Biden in the deep blue states, honestly, outside of maybe the Bay Area specifically, so therefore I disagree that it's close to 0%. It's not the most likely scenario, and quite possibly the 4th most likely (i.e. least likely out of the four possibilities) but I don't think it's zero percent or even single digit %.

Regarding the taxes I think some of the left leaning populists might be pissed off with Biden/Harris for not outright repealing the 2017/18 TCJA outright or at least the part that makes it illegal to deduct state income tax over 10k (minus their property tax, because the stupid SALT deduction in the TCJA is $10k and counts both property tax and SALT income tax as one entity -- screwing over the middle class in SALT states/jurisdictions more). Biden/Harris would inevitably allow the tax cuts to expire in 2025. I don't believe it brings back the individual mandate for the ACA (the one good thing about the TCJA IMO) and it doesn't bring back fully itemized deductions pre-TCJA either, correct me if I'm wrong, but all it would do is restore the pre-2018 tax rates.

[ElNono]

i'll be sure to bookmark this post in case Trump wins the national popular vote

He didn't win it when he was a "better" candidate (ie: unknown), he's not winning it now.

[Millennial_Messiah]

He didn't win it when he was a "better" candidate (ie: unknown), he's not winning it now.

He got 8M more in-person votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. (While it's true, Biden roughly doubled that amount in getting almost 16M more mail-in votes than Hillary got, you can attribute a lot of that to covid.) We're not getting covid-level turnout in 2024, sorry. Early absentee and mail-in ballot requests from the states that are allowing already are strongly favoring Trump and the GOP at this moment. Maybe more Dems will vote early in person in 2024 that voted by mail in 2020, who knows, but the raw data doesn't look good for the Democrats so far in a demographic of method of voting where the Dems need to win by roughly double the margin and amount what they are currently pulling to equal their 2020 level of success and they simply aren't.