Hurricane Milton

[Millennial_Messiah]

Also, the remaining hostages from one year ago are all dead. Can we all agree on that?

[Millennial_Messiah]

Record-breaking Category 5 with 180 mph wins - and could grow stronger:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL142024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/213144_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


Direct hit on Tampa and Tampa Bay. 20-40 foot surge possible in Tampa.

[Ef-man]

https://mcimaps.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2020-Democrat-President-Congress-Old-and-New-Line.png

[Millennial_Messiah]

https://mcimaps.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2020-Democrat-President-Congress-Old-and-New-Line.png


Based DeSantis cut out that snake district #5 back in early 2022. :toast

Next year a key ticket item should be to lobby SCOTUS to overturn VRA Section II making it illegal to draw these snake districts on the basis of race. I'm OK with a reprieve like, you need to keep communities of interest together as much as possible within an urban metropolis area (for example the Bronx, the south side of Chicago, the area south of central L.A., Baltimore, Prince George's County MD etc), but a state being forced to draw snakes like that one and the one in Alabama and the one in Louisiana that span many counties just for the sake of capturing as many negroes as possible just because your statewide black population is X %, is fucking retarded.

[hater]

https://x.com/TheBabylonBee/status/1843638263677849779

[Will Hunting]

Based DeSantis cut out that snake district #5 back in early 2022. :toast

Next year a key ticket item should be to lobby SCOTUS to overturn VRA Section II making it illegal to draw these snake districts on the basis of race. I'm OK with a reprieve like, you need to keep communities of interest together as much as possible within an urban metropolis area (for example the Bronx, the south side of Chicago, the area south of central L.A., Baltimore, Prince George's County MD etc), but a state being forced to draw snakes like that one and the one in Alabama and the one in Louisiana that span many counties just for the sake of capturing as many negroes as possible just because your statewide black population is X %, is fucking retarded.
The Tallahassee-Jacksonville seat was never required by the VRA (it was never majority black), it's required by state law. DeSantis has already stipulated that the current map he passed violates state law and his lawyers are arguing that the state law violated the equal protection clause, and the wetback whores DeSantis appointed to the Florida Supreme Court are intentionally slow walking the lawsuit until after the election because they don't have standing to make a finding on the equal protection clause and thus have no way to rule that a new map isn't required.

Remarkable that in all the examples of "urban metropolis" areas you don't mention the ones like the NC Research Triangle, DFW, Salt Lake City, Nashville, Oklahoma City, Jacksonville and Des Moines that all get chopped up or diluted in some form under the current maps. That communities of interest rule would simply replace the Jacksonville-Tallahassee seat with a blue Jacksonville seat contained entirely within Duval County, not the current seat that chops Duval County in half.

[Blake]

https://x.com/TheBabylonBee/status/1843638263677849779

If it takes more than 3-5 days to zelle him the money, will that be okay?

[Ef-man]

tater, will Hurrican Milton not take the roads?

[Will Hunting]

I don’t see how 2025 isn’t a rough year for Florida’s economy. Condo prices in Miami are already crashing, and it’s going to get to a point (if it’s not already there) when people simply won’t be able to get homeowner insurance in the state.

commercial insurance carriers are already denying applications for coverage for properties in Florida en masse.

[Will Hunting]

https://mcimaps.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2020-Democrat-President-Congress-Old-and-New-Line.png
Funny story about district 5 on the first map - the incumbent Democrat on that ridiculous looking Jacksonville / Orlando seat, Corrine Brown, intervened in the 2015 redistricting lawsuit to side with republicans because she didn’t want her seat becoming slightly less red.

There aren’t very many things black democrats like more than helping republicans gerrymander :lol

[pgardn]

I don’t see how 2025 isn’t a rough year for Florida’s economy. Condo prices in Miami are already crashing, and it’s going to get to a point (if it’s not already there) when people simply won’t be able to get homeowner insurance in the state.

commercial insurance carriers are already denying applications for coverage for properties in Florida en masse.

This is what I totally did not understand and thought the insurance companies were pulling some sort of scam by not covering flood and wind damage.

[pgardn]

The Tallahassee-Jacksonville seat was never required by the VRA (it was never majority black), it's required by state law. DeSantis has already stipulated that the current map he passed violates state law and his lawyers are arguing that the state law violated the equal protection clause, and the wetback whores DeSantis appointed to the Florida Supreme Court are intentionally slow walking the lawsuit until after the election because they don't have standing to make a finding on the equal protection clause and thus have no way to rule that a new map isn't required.

Remarkable that in all the examples of "urban metropolis" areas you don't mention the ones like the NC Research Triangle, DFW, Salt Lake City, Nashville, Oklahoma City, Jacksonville and Des Moines that all get chopped up or diluted in some form under the current maps. That communities of interest rule would simply replace the Jacksonville-Tallahassee seat with a blue Jacksonville seat contained entirely within Duval County, not the current seat that chops Duval County in half.


Funny story about district 5 on the first map - the incumbent Democrat on that ridiculous looking Jacksonville / Orlando seat, Corrine Brown, intervened in the 2015 redistricting lawsuit to side with republicans because she didn’t want her seat becoming slightly less red.

There aren’t very many things black democrats like more than helping republicans gerrymander :lol

Wtf do you read to find all this stuff out? Every State’s “hometown” newspaper?
Is there some sector of political reads that puts out specific stuff on every state examining every state?

[Winehole23]

This is what I totally did not understand and thought the insurance companies were pulling some sort of scam by not covering flood and wind damage.The unwinding of insured risk will happen gradually, then suddenly. It isn't fully priced in yet.

[Blake]

I don’t see how 2025 isn’t a rough year for Florida’s economy. Condo prices in Miami are already crashing, and it’s going to get to a point (if it’s not already there) when people simply won’t be able to get homeowner insurance in the state.

commercial insurance carriers are already denying applications for coverage for properties in Florida en masse.

The next 100 years tbh

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2024/06/miami-climate-change-floods/678718/

[benefactor]

Tracking further south now. Back to Cat 5 and the pressure is at 902

[Will Hunting]

Wtf do you read to find all this stuff out? Every State’s “hometown” newspaper?
Is there some sector of political reads that puts out specific stuff on every state examining every state?
Don't really have a good explanation. Redistricting and tracking black democrat corruption are both hobbies of mine :lol

[Will Hunting]

This would actually be the "fairest" community-based way to draw North Florida.

Leon County (Tallahassee) and Alachua County (Gainesville) are both counties dominated by college towns with large universities that have a lot in common with each other while they have virtually nothing in common with the more rural, trailer trash counties around them. They can easily be put in the same district, and there's no reason to split Duval County the way DeSantis did. There should a seat drawn entirely within the city boundaries of Jacksonville.

https://i.ibb.co/XzWZqKn/North-Florida.png

[Millennial_Messiah]

This would actually be the "fairest" community-based way to draw North Florida.

Leon County (Tallahassee) and Alachua County (Gainesville) are both counties dominated by college towns with large universities that have a lot in common with each other while they have virtually nothing in common with the more rural, trailer trash counties around them. They can easily be put in the same district, and there's no reason to split Duval County the way DeSantis did. There should a seat drawn entirely within the city boundaries of Jacksonville.

https://i.ibb.co/XzWZqKn/North-Florida.png

We both went back and forth on this subject a ton in the second half of 2021 and the first quarter or so of 2022.

You're hypocriticizing yourself because you're cracking a lot of red counties to make a medium-snake district just to connect two white-liberal college cities that aren't exactly next door. Alachua and Leon/Gadsden are too far apart to justify it.

I agree with the Jacksonville district and a couple other examples you provided, but there's literally no reason to draw a heap of Montgomery County into MD-06 when you can easily complete the western district with common-interest dark-red Carroll County and the northern boonies of Baltimore County (not Baltimore City).


If you're gonna start redistricting to make House seat % commensurate with the popular vote in each state then it digs both ways:

https://i.imgur.com/fVtiqeR.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/gkoEu8f.jpg


https://i.imgur.com/fQhVMAm.jpghttps://i.imgur.com/pQaBRNj.jpg



Wtf do you read to find all this stuff out? Every State’s “hometown” newspaper?
Is there some sector of political reads that puts out specific stuff on every state examining every state?
He's the smartest democrat on this message board, he's lived in DC for years, and he's friends with a decent amount of fairly wealthy non-practicing-Jewish (NPJ) Democratic Party insiders. I'd listen to him if I were you

[MultiTroll]

I don’t see how 2025 isn’t a rough year for Florida’s economy. Condo prices in Miami are already crashing, and it’s going to get to a point (if it’s not already there) when people simply won’t be able to get homeowner insurance in the state.

commercial insurance carriers are already denying applications for coverage for properties in Florida en masse.
I hear lots of horror stories of covered insured home owners getting weasled on by the Inc Cos.

Some of the big name ones are the worst.
Farmers and State Farm suck ass, cons.

USAA has gotten kick ass reviews.

[Will Hunting]

We both went back and forth on this subject a ton in the second half of 2021 and the first quarter or so of 2022.

You're hypocriticizing yourself because you're cracking a lot of red counties to make a medium-snake district just to connect two white-liberal college cities that aren't exactly next door. Alachua and Leon/Gadsden are too far apart to justify it.
That district cracks two counties total. 719k of its population comes from counties that aren't cracked and only 50k of its population comes from counties that are cracked. That's a significant improvement over the Gainesville seat on the current map that gets over 206k of its population from a county that's cracked.

Republicans only care about county cracking when it suits them. Communities of interest should be a lot more important than county cracking.


I agree with the Jacksonville district and a couple other examples you provided, but there's literally no reason to draw a heap of Montgomery County into MD-06 when you can easily complete the western district with common-interest dark-red Carroll County and the northern boonies of Baltimore County (not Baltimore City).
Yes there's no question Maryland and Illinois are gerrymandered but the way you drew them makes no sense. You're right that MD-06 should be a solid red district that hugs the PA border into Baltimore County (not city), but you shouldn't be splitting the Delmarva peninsula into multiple seats in order to make the 5th district more red.
https://i.ibb.co/mqH2LyY/MD-Fair.png

I'm not sure wtf you did with Illinois but it's not COI based at all, it's just a map that draws as many solid red seats as possible. It's one of the easiest states in the country to draw a fair map in:
https://i.ibb.co/T1K5tjt/IL-Fair.png

[Blake]

Who's the smartest republican on this board then?

[Millennial_Messiah]

Who's the smartest republican on this board then?
ducks... just kidding.

TSA, me, Dirks_Finale, rmt, no particular order... I might have missed someone.

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) to be fair I made the Maryland map today, but I made that Illinois map in early 2022 (hence the ugliness near Chicago and the lack of population consistency in each district, however to be fair Pritzker's map has a pretty unusually steep difference in population per district), so I've gotten better at it. I was basically just drawing a 10-7 map which is roughly in line with the partisan lean of the state. No question yours is cleaner, though, in blue wave years they could still theoretically get their current 14-3, though the most likely outcome is a 12-5 or even 11-6 since college age white turnout (Bloomington/UIUC) is notoriously shitty.

I agree with not cracking Delmarva (the dems did have one early 2021 proposal that sneaked Annapolis in to Harris's district but it was thrown out in court) though it's pretty hard to decide which is fairer because Charles county is pretty black like PG and has less in common with the other three counties in your MD-05.

On a side note, Baltimore County - not city - is going to largely decide the split ticket margin between Trump and Hogan. They tend to be much more down ballot conservative.

[Will Hunting]

ducks... just kidding.

TSA, me, Dirks_Finale, rmt, no particular order... I might have missed someone.

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) to be fair I made the Maryland map today, but I made that Illinois map in early 2022 (hence the ugliness near Chicago and the lack of population consistency in each district, however to be fair Pritzker's map has a pretty unusually steep difference in population per district), so I've gotten better at it. I was basically just drawing a 10-7 map which is roughly in line with the partisan lean of the state. No question yours is cleaner, though, in blue wave years they could still theoretically get their current 14-3, though the most likely outcome is a 12-5 or even 11-6 since college age white turnout (Bloomington/UIUC) is notoriously shitty.
The Pritzker map (and every other in every other state) has the same population in every district. It's illegal to have population deviations in congressional districts outside of deviations that are tiny (like less than 1%). Pritzker drawing a map that deviates in population would be retarded since that's literally the only way to get a map thrown out in federal court.

The map I drew looks more favorable for Dems than it is. The Northwest seat is trending right and pretty quickly and the light blue seats in the Chicagoland outskirts are more red down ballot.

If you apply the 2022 Congress results to it it's a 10-7 map (all 6 rural districts are red and the Joliet district is also red), but fair and proportional aren't the same. Chicagoland's population is where 11 out of the 17 seats come from and all of them are going to be blue.


I agree with not cracking Delmarva (the dems did have one early 2021 proposal that sneaked Annapolis in to Harris's district but it was thrown out in court) though it's pretty hard to decide which is fairer because Charles county is pretty black like PG and has less in common with the other three counties in your MD-05.
Charles County is cracked on my map, the black parts of it are drawn into the Prince Georges County seat. It's literally drawn in a way to make the 5th district as red as possible without totally nuking communities of interest (by doing something like cracking the Delmarva peninsula), so idk how one could argue that it's not fair.

[Will Hunting]

On a side note, Baltimore County - not city - is going to largely decide the split ticket margin between Trump and Hogan. They tend to be much more down ballot conservative.
Dude the difference between Hogan and Trump isn't going to be just Baltimore County :lol, Hogan overperforms in all of the suburb counties near DC and Baltimore (Howard, Anne Arundel, even Montgomery). Even in Prince George's, Trump got 8% in 2020 while Hogan got 30% in 2018.

He's going to lose handily though. It might have been interesting if Republicans cleared the field in MD and Hogan ran as an independent the way the Dems cleared the field in Nebraska for Osborn (who's not going to win but he's scared Fischer enough that the GOP establishment is spending money there now).

[Millennial_Messiah]

The Pritzker map (and every other in every other state) has the same population in every district. It's illegal to have population deviations in congressional districts outside of deviations that are tiny (like less than 1%). Pritzker drawing a map that deviates in population would be retarded since that's literally the only way to get a map thrown out in federal court.

The map I drew looks more favorable for Dems than it is. The Northwest seat is trending right and pretty quickly and the light blue seats in the Chicagoland outskirts are more red down ballot.

If you apply the 2022 Congress results to it it's a 10-7 map (all 6 rural districts are red and the Joliet district is also red), but fair and proportional aren't the same. Chicagoland's population is where 11 out of the 17 seats come from and all of them are going to be blue.


Charles County is cracked on my map, the black parts of it are drawn into the Prince Georges County seat. It's literally drawn in a way to make the 5th district as red as possible without totally nuking communities of interest (by doing something like cracking the Delmarva peninsula), so idk how one could argue that it's not fair.
Well, that, or drawing non-contiguous districts. My apology on the Pritzker map, I recall from 3 years ago the one for Illinois they had on DRA differed by up to 0.5% (still under the 1% threshold, but higher deviation than most states) but I guess they fixed that, either it was a glitch or the IL legislature fixed it, one of the two. I agree the Driftless IL seat based around Moline is the part of IL that is zooming rightward, the light blue seats in the Chicagoland outskirts could go either way but Dems are slightly favored. The other pink seat should go red most years and the seat in the middle appears to be a pure toss up because of the college towns but the college student voters are low propensity especially in midterms.

As for Maryland. It's a pretty good map and at least the West Panhandle finally gets representation. It looks like you cracked Baltimore City though, which is odd because it has slightly less than a district in population and is a COI in of itself.



Dude the difference between Hogan and Trump isn't going to be just Baltimore County :lol, Hogan overperforms in all of the suburb counties near DC and Baltimore (Howard, Anne Arundel, even Montgomery). Even in Prince George's, Trump got 8% in 2020 while Hogan got 30% in 2018.

He's going to lose handily though. It might have been interesting if Republicans cleared the field in MD and Hogan ran as an independent the way the Dems cleared the field in Nebraska for Osborn (who's not going to win but he's scared Fischer enough that the GOP establishment is spending money there now).
I agree Alsobrooks is going to win but I don't believe by a safe margin. He'll win Anne Arundel, make Howard close and cut into Montgomery whites but it won't be enough. Alsobrooks "looks" like Kamala so she'll win all of Kamala's black voters and MD is a very black heavy state.

The GOP would be stupid to spend money on Fischer's race because it's going to be a Mike Lee 2022 redux. Plus, you've also got not only the POTUS but also Pete Ricketts on the ballot, I can't see Fischer underperforming Ricketts on the same ballot by much. Split ticketing post Trump era polarization in federal elections is massively overrated.

[Will Hunting]

As for Maryland. It's a pretty good map and at least the West Panhandle finally gets representation. It looks like you cracked Baltimore City though, which is odd because it has slightly less than a district in population and is a COI in of itself.
VRA reasons (you need two majority black seats in Maryland, plus let's not kid ourselves the white people in Baltimore City don't want to be covered by some 75 year black caucus hack who only cares about using his congressional staffer budget to pay his shawty :lol) and you need to do it to make MD-3 contiguous.


I agree Alsobrooks is going to win but I don't believe by a safe margin. He'll win Anne Arundel, make Howard close and cut into Montgomery whites but it won't be enough. Alsobrooks "looks" like Kamala so she'll win all of Kamala's black voters and MD is a very black heavy state.

The GOP would be stupid to spend money on Fischer's race because it's going to be a Mike Lee 2022 redux. Plus, you've also got not only the POTUS but also Pete Ricketts on the ballot, I can't see Fischer underperforming Ricketts on the same ballot by much. Split ticketing post Trump era polarization in federal elections is massively overrated.
Lee's performance was pathetic though. Running McMuffin as an independent clearly led to a lot of ticket splitting. Deb Fischer is also the quintessential do nothing senator

Obviously I'm not saying Osborn is gonna win, but clearing the field and running someone as an independent is clearly a strategy that's going to lead to more ticket splitting than running a Dem would. In 2014 Greg Orman did very well as an indy running against Pat Roberts in Kansas and McMuffin also objectively did well. We'll see how Osborn does this year. IMO Rs and Ds should both start doing this in states that aren't safe D or safe R but states they regularly lose by 5-10%.

[Ef-man]

Grifters gonna grift

Elon Musk — who has $260 billion — will be charging Helene victims $400 for internet service

Billionaire Elon Musk – the richest man in the world — recently announced Hurricane Helene victims would get free internet service through his company Starlink. But there's one major catch: Come November, they'll have to pay.

Tech publication the Register reported Tuesday that Starlink's offer of free satellite-powered internet service to areas impacted by Helene has a hefty price tag. While the normal residential subscription of $120/month has been waived for the first 30 days of service, anyone in the affected area hoping to use Starlink to get online and connect with resources will still have to pay for the hardware to actually set up an internet connection. When taking into account the cost of shipping along with taxes, hurricane victims can expect to pay roughly $400.

[Will Hunting]

Grifters gonna grift

Elon Musk — who has $260 billion — will be charging Helene victims $400 for internet service

Billionaire Elon Musk – the richest man in the world — recently announced Hurricane Helene victims would get free internet service through his company Starlink. But there's one major catch: Come November, they'll have to pay.

Tech publication the Register reported Tuesday that Starlink's offer of free satellite-powered internet service to areas impacted by Helene has a hefty price tag. While the normal residential subscription of $120/month has been waived for the first 30 days of service, anyone in the affected area hoping to use Starlink to get online and connect with resources will still have to pay for the hardware to actually set up an internet connection. When taking into account the cost of shipping along with taxes, hurricane victims can expect to pay roughly $400.
:lol do you have a link?

[Will Hunting]

Charles Koch or someone else needs to sit musk down and explain that billionaire sociopaths are supposed to help republicans win behind the scenes with financing and dark money PACs with folksy names like “Americans for prescription drug pricing freedom.” They’re not supposed to tweet 50 times a day about how they as a billionaire oligarch really relate to the Republican Party more than democrats.

[ChumpDumper]

:lol do you have a link?

https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/08/free_starlink_hurricane_helene/

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZQb6JnasAAUaz0?format=jpg&name=large

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZcoMwYWwAE5fwK?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Blake]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZcoMwYWwAE5fwK?format=jpg&name=900x900

Lol the fuck?

[Ef-man]

Another conspiracy for ST crazies: "MJT" is top of this topic as she is the one who revealed to the world the existence of Jew Space Lasers.

Wake up sheeple, the truth is out there, this is not a conspiracy, "Q" warned us about this and hillary's children eating cabal, am not hiding in korea, why do you not listen to me, answer me, answer me, answer me!!!

[Leetonidas]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZcoMwYWwAE5fwK?format=jpg&name=900x900

This bitch is so fucking stupid. Can't wait until her and the rest of her maga minions are a thing of the past

[pgardn]

Charles Koch or someone else needs to sit musk down and explain that billionaire sociopaths are supposed to help republicans win behind the scenes with financing and dark money PACs with folksy names like “Americans for prescription drug pricing freedom.” They’re not supposed to tweet 50 times a day about how they as a billionaire oligarch really relate to the Republican Party more than democrats.

Good luck with that.
Same with Trump shutting his mouth.

[baseline bum]

This bitch is so fucking stupid. Can't wait until her and the rest of her maga minions are a thing of the past

She's not stupid, she's evil. She doesn't believe the shit she says. White supremacy isn't going anywhere in the US, there will be more of her to replace her in the future.

[pgardn]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZcoMwYWwAE5fwK?format=jpg&name=900x900

Im not sure what she is getting at?
She is worried the government will try to control weather?
We already have on smaller scales so what is the purpose of this question?
If we could disperse Milton and get rain to areas that badly need it we would not carry it out? Too much government control? I dont get it...

[pgardn]

She's not stupid, she's evil. She doesn't believe the shit she says.

Could you explain the question? for why?

[baseline bum]

Could you explain the question? for why?

I don't get what you're asking. She's a university educated woman knowing wild conspiracy theories drive turnout among the uneducated while the GOP voters in the top 10% income bracket could give a shit as long as they get their tax cut and/or brown people get punished.

[pgardn]

I don't get what you're asking. She's a university educated woman knowing wild conspiracy theories drive turnout among the uneducated while the GOP voters in the top 10% income bracket could give a shit as long as they get their tax cut and/or brown people get punished.

Is this question involving a conspiracy theory? And if so what?

[ChumpDumper]

She's not stupid, she's evil. She doesn't believe the shit she says. White supremacy isn't going anywhere in the US, there will be more of her to replace her in the future.

1844009348252782881

https://x.com/ItWasNotRigged/status/1844009348252782881

[Blake]

Yah, the fear mongering is real. And we're all paying for it.

But it's been that way since the dawn of time

[Joseph Kony]

Yep, the entire republican platform is based on fear mongering. which is funny, considering this is the same group of morons that were crying about wearing masks and didn't care when millions of people were dying and told us to quit living in fear, yet this is the same group of people that are terrified of immigrants, have to carry guns everywhere to feel safe, have leaders that think they cant get groceries without getting raped or shot, think their pets are being eaten, etc. :lol just a bunch of sniveling pussies imho

[Spurminator]

Yep, the entire republican platform is based on fear mongering. which is funny, considering this is the same group of morons that were crying about wearing masks and didn't care when millions of people were dying and told us to quit living in fear, yet this is the same group of people that are terrified of immigrants, have to carry guns everywhere to feel safe, have leaders that think they cant get groceries without getting raped or shot, think their pets are being eaten, etc. :lol just a bunch of sniveling pussies imho

I laugh every time I see one of their "NO FEAR" Trump yard signs. Like sure buddy, you're so brave, tell me again how tranny prisoners are coming for your children.

[Thanos]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZcoMwYWwAE5fwK?format=jpg&name=900x900

But why would “they” destroy their own retirement community. Also wouldn’t the space lasers be more efficient?

[Winehole23]

1844030939082686595

https://x.com/hoofnmane/status/1844030939082686595

[Millennial_Messiah]

VRA reasons (you need two majority black seats in Maryland, plus let's not kid ourselves the white people in Baltimore City don't want to be covered by some 75 year black caucus hack who only cares about using his congressional staffer budget to pay his shawty :lol) and you need to do it to make MD-3 contiguous.


Yeah but my map was both contiguous and had not just two but three black majority districts out of 8 total, which is fair because MD is a black heavy state and concentrated (unlike those stupid snake districts in the south which should be taken out of VRA section 2 by SCOTUS, but the black concentration COIs should indeed be protected and not cracked, while the narrow black belts spread west to east across the state need not) and my MD-07 district (Baltimore City plus a couple of the blackest surrounding precincts) is indeed black majority.


Lee's performance was pathetic though. Running McMuffin as an independent clearly led to a lot of ticket splitting. Deb Fischer is also the quintessential do nothing senator

Obviously I'm not saying Osborn is gonna win, but clearing the field and running someone as an independent is clearly a strategy that's going to lead to more ticket splitting than running a Dem would. In 2014 Greg Orman did very well as an indy running against Pat Roberts in Kansas and McMuffin also objectively did well. We'll see how Osborn does this year. IMO Rs and Ds should both start doing this in states that aren't safe D or safe R but states they regularly lose by 5-10%.
I agree with all this except for the fact that Trump and Ricketts are both on the ballot in this specific case. In most cases, in midterm years where you're not running with a concurrent special senate election this would definitely apply (unless somehow you can put up 2 similar independent candidates that are strong, but that's hard to find). But in this case the GOP doesn't need to spend because Trump and Ricketts will carry Fischer to a >R+15% win.

[z0sa]

1844030939082686595

https://x.com/hoofnmane/status/1844030939082686595

:lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) here's a few blue pipe dream maps I made a few weeks ago that are clean, evenly distributed and legal, let me know what you think. Keep in mind Dems have governorship of all these states:


https://i.imgur.com/KGotw8R.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/BgMOjKX.jpg


https://i.imgur.com/RY1Zf5Y.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/cDSrpsc.jpg


https://i.imgur.com/H1I3XZE.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/zGKzdI4.jpg

[StormLuva]

FUUUUUUUUUUCCCCKKKK YES!!!

Category 5 direct hit on Tampa!! OMGGGG Me and MannyIsGod's wet dream...Death, Destruction!..err, I mean this is very fascinating for research purposes! Of course, I uhhh certainly wouldn't want anyone to get hurt. e = mc^2 or something like that

[Blake]

Yep, the entire republican platform is based on fear mongering. which is funny, considering this is the same group of morons that were crying about wearing masks and didn't care when millions of people were dying and told us to quit living in fear, yet this is the same group of people that are terrified of immigrants, have to carry guns everywhere to feel safe, have leaders that think they cant get groceries without getting raped or shot, think their pets are being eaten, etc. :lol just a bunch of sniveling pussies imho

I believe Jesus will save me from anything. I just need muh gun just in case.

[pgardn]

Yep, the entire republican platform is based on fear mongering. which is funny, considering this is the same group of morons that were crying about wearing masks and didn't care when millions of people were dying and told us to quit living in fear, yet this is the same group of people that are terrified of immigrants, have to carry guns everywhere to feel safe, have leaders that think they cant get groceries without getting raped or shot, think their pets are being eaten, etc. :lol just a bunch of sniveling pussies imho

Aha...

Now I sort of get it.
It was so excessively contradictory I could not work my way through the way those questions fit together.

[pgardn]

I believe Jesus will save me from anything. I just need muh gun just in case.

It is written Jesus wants you to have your gun.
This is very effective defense when also having to turn the other cheek and what not.

[SnakeBoy]

These natural disasters are just awful

[Ef-man]

These natural disasters are just awful

But are they “Jew Space Laser” natural, as “MJT” might say?

[pgardn]

These natural disasters are just awful

Crocodile admits tears are indeed reptilian.

[pgardn]

Now I get MTGs crap

I had no idea. Fkn idiots…

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lyzw7xwxo

False claims suggesting that Hurricane Milton was “engineered” and that the weather in Florida is being “manipulated” have been spreading on social media.
There is no technology that allows humans to create and control hurricanes.
But on platforms like X and TikTok, posts alleging - without evidence - that the US government is secretly controlling the weather have been viewed millions of times.
Many were published by accounts known for spreading conspiracy theories, as well as misinformation about Covid-19 or vaccines.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Now I get MTGs crap

I had no idea. Fkn idiots…

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lyzw7xwxo

False claims suggesting that Hurricane Milton was “engineered” and that the weather in Florida is being “manipulated” have been spreading on social media.
There is no technology that allows humans to create and control hurricanes.
But on platforms like X and TikTok, posts alleging - without evidence - that the US government is secretly controlling the weather have been viewed millions of times.
Many were published by accounts known for spreading conspiracy theories, as well as misinformation about Covid-19 or vaccines.

False correlation theory.

The MTG stuff about lizards and space lasers is obviously fucking retarded, but we reserve the right to choose to not get clot shots/ turbo cancer jabs. My body, my choice. Just like a woman should be entitled to abortion up to a reasonable amount of time, maybe up to half the pregnancy with no exception reasons needed, with exception for health/life of the mother after that. Abortion should be safe, legal, rare. Covid shots and flu shots should be up to the individual, never mandatory, not by governments, not by private companies. I made the same "A" in organic chemistry in college as did Fauci's rich, hypocritical disciples. The baby vaccines are mostly safe and proven to be effective and no, they don't cause autism. What causes autism is geriatric pregnancies and especially stuff like C-sections, taking medicine and drugs and drinking while pregnant (especially early on when you don't know you're pregnant, which is largely caused by the massive increase in non-marital unplanned pregnancies due to leftist counterculture nuking the American nuclear family, because if you're trying with a man you shouldn't be drinking or taking pills anyway). I also think being raised an only child can lead to social awkwardness, not necessarily autism but just being weird and socially awkward in general.

As a hobbyist meteorologist for 20 years the MTG conspiracy garbage is downright insulting and disgusting, but so are the so-called "leaders" scientists who openly and outwardly fundraise for Harris/Walz and spew nonsense propaganda about Project 2025 which isn't Trump's agenda and they know it, they just know it fearmongers their base.

[ChumpDumper]

False correlation theory.

The MTG stuff about lizards and space lasers is obviously fucking retarded, but we reserve the right to choose to not get clot shots/ turbo cancer jabs. My body, my choice. Just like a woman should be entitled to abortion up to a reasonable amount of time, maybe up to half the pregnancy with no exception reasons needed, with exception for health/life of the mother after that. Abortion should be safe, legal, rare. Covid shots and flu shots should be up to the individual, never mandatory, not by governments, not by private companies. I made the same "A" in organic chemistry in college as did Fauci's rich, hypocritical disciples. The baby vaccines are mostly safe and proven to be effective and no, they don't cause autism. What causes autism is geriatric pregnancies and especially stuff like C-sections, taking medicine and drugs and drinking while pregnant (especially early on when you don't know you're pregnant, which is largely caused by the massive increase in non-marital unplanned pregnancies due to leftist counterculture nuking the American nuclear family, because if you're trying with a man you shouldn't be drinking or taking pills anyway). I also think being raised an only child can lead to social awkwardness, not necessarily autism but just being weird and socially awkward in general.

As a hobbyist meteorologist for 20 years the MTG conspiracy garbage is downright insulting and disgusting, but so are the so-called "leaders" scientists who openly and outwardly fundraise for Harris/Walz and spew nonsense propaganda about Project 2025 which isn't Trump's agenda and they know it, they just know it fearmongers their base.When were we vaccinated people supposed to have died?

2022?

[Winehole23]

correct Republican lies on air, get a death threat

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZetnRDawAA50EL?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Millennial_Messiah]

correct Republican lies on air, get a death threat


Yikes. I believe in 1A and protection of free speech in virtually all forms, including hate speech, but death threats and serious violence and terrorist threats are the exception.

If people sent death threats, they need to go to jail. Not only is it insurrectionist, but it's absolutely ridiculous junk science.


When were we vaccinated people supposed to have died?

2022?

The theory was always 30 to 40 percent in ten years. So, essentially by 2031. However, while that number might end up being accurate, it ignores the confounding variable that the elderly disproportionately got the vaccine and were going to die within ten years anyway. For the younger demographic that percentage will be much lower, naturally.

The sharp increase in sudden death of otherwise-healthy, often young, individuals since 2021 is not to be denied nor overlooked. I mean, not a young person but look at Betty White, 99 and 11/12 months about to celebrate her birthday in Dec. 2021, celebrated getting her booster for the omicron variant and then died suddenly despite no health issues.

[pgardn]

Yikes. I believe in 1A and protection of free speech in virtually all forms, including hate speech, but death threats and serious violence and terrorist threats are the exception.

If people sent death threats, they need to go to jail. Not only is it insurrectionist, but it's absolutely ridiculous junk science.



The theory was always 30 to 40 percent in ten years. So, essentially by 2031. However, while that number might end up being accurate, it ignores the confounding variable that the elderly disproportionately got the vaccine and were going to die within ten years anyway. For the younger demographic that percentage will be much lower, naturally.

The sharp increase in sudden death of otherwise-healthy, often young, individuals since 2021 is not to be denied nor overlooked. I mean, not a young person but look at Betty White, 99 and 11/12 months about to celebrate her birthday in Dec. 2021, celebrated getting her booster for the omicron variant and then died suddenly despite no health issues.

False correlation theory.
It had to be the vax, what else could it be?
She was healthy.

Shes 99 fkn years old. Do you need a description of what all of her organs are like compared to yours?

JAMA

Among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older who experienced stroke after receiving either brand of the COVID-19 bivalent vaccine, there was no evidence of a significantly elevated risk for stroke during the days immediately after vaccination.

So your study for the omicron variant. or you just made the ASSOCIATION?
"not to be denied or overlooked?" Holy shit... You just punched yourself in the face.
Do you know that kids died at a young age who were not vaccinated? Real study that shows the CORRELATION?
You vax freaks just looked for anyone who died young, got vaxed, and made your conclusions.

There are people that have allergic reactions to getting vaccinated. Just like a lot of other allergens. These people thank you for your service as they rely on people around them not being foolish.
Its a PUBLIC health thing. You know, large groups of people together. Like cities, schools, churches etc... Dont worry though, people are still going on cruise ships and getting sick at a higher rate than those that dont that is SIGNIFICANT. But it makes no sense to you I guess.

[TSA]

False correlation theory.
It had to be the vax, what else could it be?
She was healthy.

Shes 99 fkn years old. Do you need a description of what all of her organs are like compared to yours?

JAMA

Among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older who experienced stroke after receiving either brand of the COVID-19 bivalent vaccine, there was no evidence of a significantly elevated risk for stroke during the days immediately after vaccination.

So your study for the omicron variant. or you just made the ASSOCIATION?
"not to be denied or overlooked?" Holy shit... You just punched yourself in the face.
Do you know that kids died at a young age who were not vaccinated? Real study that shows the CORRELATION?
You vax freaks just looked for anyone who died young, got vaxed, and made your conclusions.

There are people that have allergic reactions to getting vaccinated. Just like a lot of other allergens. These people thank you for your service as they rely on people around them not being foolish.
Its a PUBLIC health thing. You know, large groups of people together. Like cities, schools, churches etc... Dont worry though, people are still going on cruise ships and getting sick at a higher rate than those that dont that is SIGNIFICANT. But it makes no sense to you I guess.

Among both adolescents and children, myocarditis and pericarditis were documented only in the vaccinated groups, with rates of 27 and 10
cases/million after first and second doses respectively.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.05.20.24306810v1.full.pdf

[Blake]

Among both adolescents and children, myocarditis and pericarditis were documented only in the vaccinated groups, with rates of 27 and 10
cases/million after first and second doses respectively.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.05.20.24306810v1.full.pdf

Whoa 27 cases out of a million? Put me down now as anti vax!