Who will WIN the 2024 Presidential Election? (regardless of who you want to win)

[Millennial_Messiah]

Who do you BELIEVE will win? Regardless and irrespective of who you WANT to win.

Gun to your head, you have to bet your house and all your money, your future earnings, and your genitalia on one candidate or the other to win... who will be called President by November 6th?

[ChumpDumper]

The only one who's going to be called president by that date is Biden.

President-elect isn't even going to be called by anyone but Trump and his cult.

[Winehole23]

against my settled preference for not predicting, I'll throw it out there that I think it's possible that Harris wins and it isn't very close -- not a blow out, but a decisive win.

[Winehole23]

my hunch is that Harris is reaching a lot of people who don't usually vote, and that the "shy voter" dynamic might break in her favor this time.

it's pretty hard to overstate what a bad campaign Trump is running and how bad he looks on the stump

[baseline bum]

I'll say Trump because I expect only the worst out of this nation.

[Blake]

If only someone would post quirky polls to help us decide.

[baseline bum]

my hunch is that Harris is reaching a lot of people who don't usually vote, and that the "shy voter" dynamic might break in her favor this time.

it's pretty hard to overstate what a bad campaign Trump is running and how bad he looks on the stump

If Trump was running his 2016 campaign he'd easily win. Though I'm still concerned about the 'she's a woman and a negro' shy voter.

[baseline bum]

it's pretty hard to overstate what a bad campaign Trump is running and how bad he looks on the stump

Harris is also running a terrible campaign, the same Trump is a pig campaign Clinton ran. If she wants to win she should be running on these two things:

1. Donald Trump will defund and thus kill Social Security. Once he gets it defunded it'll never be funded again when it would need 60 votes in the senate, so Social Security dies.
2. Trump will kill the $2000 Medicare Part D out of pocket annual maximum that Biden signed into law and which takes effect in 2025.

These two things should make for a landslide Harris win so the only logical explanation is that Democrat donors would like to see both happen since Harris won't hammer Trump over these two things.

[Winehole23]

Harris is also running a terrible campaign, the same Trump is a pig campaign Clinton ran. If she wants to win she should be running on these two things:

1. Donald Trump will defund and thus kill Social Security. Once he gets it defunded it'll never be funded again when it would need 60 votes in the senate, so Social Security dies.
2. Trump will kill the $2000 Medicare Part D out of pocket annual maximum that Biden signed into law and which takes effect in 2025.

These two things should make for a landslide Harris win so the only logical explanation is that Democrat donors would like to see both happen since Harris won't hammer Trump over these two things.Those are great points, but there are so many things to hate Trump for that he already did.

I think the Medicare home care plan is a great idea, I wish Harris would mention it more.

[CosmicCowboy]

I think Harris clearly wins the popular vote but Trump squeaks by in the electoral college. We won't know for sure until days after the actual election.

[CosmicCowboy]

Money/markets clearly think Trump is going to win. Crypto spikes today...he'll, DJT jumped 15% today.

[baseline bum]

I think Harris clearly wins the popular vote but Trump squeaks by in the electoral college. We won't know for sure until days after the actual election.

American slavery delivers you guys the win again!

[CosmicCowboy]

American slavery delivers you guys the win again!

He's not my guy. I was just asked for a prediction of the outcome. Neither side has a good candidate.

[baseline bum]

He's not my guy. I was just asked for a prediction of the outcome. Neither side has a good candidate.

He's a useful idiot for getting the judges you like and Project 2025 implemented.

[CosmicCowboy]

*sigh* project 2025 is mostly bullshit.

[CosmicCowboy]

Trump has his devoted followers. Kamala doesn't have devoted followers, all she has is Trump haters. Should be interesting.

[baseline bum]

*sigh* project 2025 is mostly bullshit.

Not your guy but running interference for him :lol

[CosmicCowboy]

Whatever. Was asked for an observation and gave it. FWIW no matter who wins I hope house/senate/ presidency are divided. The more gridlock the less damage the Federal government can do.

[baseline bum]

Whatever. Was asked for an observation and gave it. FWIW no matter who wins I hope house/senate/ presidency are divided. The more gridlock the less damage the Federal government can do.

Same Heritage Foundation that has been guiding every GOP president since Reagan, same Heritage Foundation that gave you the judges you always defend while claiming you don't like Trump.

[TSA]

my hunch is that Harris is reaching a lot of people who don't usually vote, and that the "shy voter" dynamic might break in her favor this time.pure hopium :lmao

[TSA]

Harris is cooked. Trump, decisively. Wouldn’t be shocked if he wins the popular vote too.

[TSA]

If only someone would post quirky polls to help us decide.

Ah yes…those quirky ABC, NBC, and Gallup polls.

[Thanos]

The oligarchy wins. Every time.

[baseline bum]

Wouldn’t be shocked if Comet Ping Pong had a basement where you could go fuck kids.

FIFY

[baseline bum]

The oligarchy wins. Every time.

Happens when you have two right wing parties in a nation whose constitution enshrines the two party system into law.

[CosmicCowboy]

Yesterday desperate pandering to black males was hilarious. Let's promise to give all this free shit to 5.6% of the population and hope no one else notices LOL.

[pgardn]

Yesterday desperate pandering to black males was hilarious. Let's promise to give all this free shit to 5.6% of the population and hope no one else notices LOL.

And executives, Oil Companies, Billionaires... Yeah no one notices?

[CosmicCowboy]

And executives, Oil Companies, Billionaires... Yeah no one notices?

Anglos, Hispanics, Asians etc. Why suddenly all this free shit specifically and only for black males? The desperate pandering was laughably obvious. Even funnier was thinking charlemaine the GOD would resonate with all black males. The black church pastors and their congregations are irrelevant now? Lol.

[SnakeBoy]

Don't know who's going to win. I'm voting for Trump but hoping Kamala wins. I think she could destroy the Dems for a generation.

[pgardn]

Anglos, Hispanics, Asians etc. Why suddenly all this free shit specifically and only for black males? The desperate pandering was laughably obvious.

So its not obvious the pandering to the ultra rich companies and CEOs etc... taxes???? So yeah this pandering to black males... meh... What exactly does it COST?
You have not seen any pandering to fkn nuts from the red team? Obviously your pets were not eaten.

[pgardn]

Don't know who's going to win. I'm voting for Trump but hoping Kamala wins. I think she could destroy the Dems for a generation.

Cool.
So we dont have to worry about an Emperor?

[CosmicCowboy]

So its not obvious the pandering to the ultra rich companies and CEOs etc... taxes???? So yeah this pandering to black males... meh... What exactly does it COST?
You have not seen any pandering to fkn nuts from the red team? Obviously your pets were not eaten.

Agree the pets getting eaten was pretty stupid.

[hater]

Where the Netanyahu option?

He will win hands down.

[Leetonidas]

My gut tells my Trump is gonna win. Really hope I'm wrong though

[pgardn]

Agree the pets getting eaten was pretty stupid.

And backing down from stupid? Not a hint of it.

So yeah...

[Millennial_Messiah]

Whatever. Was asked for an observation and gave it. FWIW no matter who wins I hope house/senate/ presidency are divided. The more gridlock the less damage the Federal government can do.

If Trump wins (and likely even in a narrow Harris victory scenario) the GOP still keeps a House majority and Senate majority. A Trump win would likely net the GOP 54+ Senate seats because Trump voters in the rust belt aren't really gonna vote against McCormick/Rogers/Hovde and those three will also slightly outperform Trump in the college educated suburban vote.

It would take a Harris landslide to win the House and even then the GOP is still getting 51 or 52 Senate seats in that scenario. Allred, Osborn, Tester don't have a snowball's chance in hell.


Don't know who's going to win. I'm voting for Trump but hoping Kamala wins. I think she could destroy the Dems for a generation.
Oh sure, Kamala winning would absolutely be worse for the Dems and better for the GOP in the long run, because they'll put up more likeable candidates with similar populist appeal and policy when Trump is gone from politics, and also the 2026 purple governorships would also swing back red for sure in that case. This year however is the juicier year for Senate seats though. The absolute worst case scenario for Dems is a narrow Harris win in the electoral college but the GOP still gets 54-55 senate seats due to anti-Trump split ticketing in the rust belt that the polls aren't quite capturing but happened in 2016 and 2020. In addition to a GOP House majority which would only get bigger in 2026 with a Harris victory. Vance goes back to the senate and his presidential run career is over, Trump is done with politics for good, and you're probably looking at DeSantis and Youngkin as your 2028 front runners, who are infinitely more popular in the suburbs.

[SnakeBoy]

Cool.
So we dont have to worry about an Emperor?

Well see this is what makes me torn. The lib meltdown if Trump wins would be epic.

[florige]

Idk too still early to tell imo. If Harris can get the Dem voters out she will probably win. We’ll see how everything looks next week after this week. Trump had a bad week. Thankfully for Harris she didn’t pull a Hillary and start stalling a week before the election

[pgardn]

Where the Netanyahu option?

He will win hands down.

He is a criminal walking around in his own country just like Trump.

[pgardn]

Well see this is what makes me torn. The lib meltdown if Trump wins would be epic.

Yeah those libs that lean towards democracy.
I mean they ARE lunatics? right?

[SnakeBoy]

Where the Netanyahu option?

He will win hands down.

I think we're going to war with Iran regardless. Camala thinks they're our greatest threat and Trump believes the bs that they tried to assassinate him :lol

[florige]

My gut tells my Trump is gonna win. Really hope I'm wrong though


For some reason I feel that this time around Harris is the one underperforming in the polls not Trump.

[SnakeBoy]

Yeah those libs that lean towards democracy.
I mean they ARE lunatics? right?

If you believed in democracy, you would want your party to have open primaries

[CosmicCowboy]

I had to watch the Fox interview. She certainly didn't help herself there. Wasn't near as entertaining as the Trump Blumberg interview. I dont necessarily agree with him but he was pretty much taking adversarial questions head on instead of ducking and dodging like Kamala did today.

[CosmicCowboy]

If you believed in democracy, you would want your party to have open primaries

You mean Kanala that got less than 5% in a real primary and had to drop out before Iowa?

[Millennial_Messiah]

Idk too still early to tell imo. If Harris can get the Dem voters out she will probably win. We’ll see how everything looks next week after this week. Trump had a bad week. Thankfully for Harris she didn’t pull a Hillary and start stalling a week before the election

On the contrary; Trump had a good week. Betting markets flipped from Harris to Trump over the past 7 days and BTC went from 59K to near 68K. Harris' interview was a wash at best.

Betting markets never had Trump ahead in 2020 or 2016, but we'll see.


Money/markets clearly think Trump is going to win. Crypto spikes today...he'll, DJT jumped 15% today.
Crypto didn't spike today; more like Friday, Monday and yesterday morning. DJT jumped by like 10% over the past week in betting markets, not 15% today.



Harris is also running a terrible campaign, the same Trump is a pig campaign Clinton ran. If she wants to win she should be running on these two things:

1. Donald Trump will defund and thus kill Social Security. Once he gets it defunded it'll never be funded again when it would need 60 votes in the senate, so Social Security dies.
2. Trump will kill the $2000 Medicare Part D out of pocket annual maximum that Biden signed into law and which takes effect in 2025.

These two things should make for a landslide Harris win so the only logical explanation is that Democrat donors would like to see both happen since Harris won't hammer Trump over these two things.
Trump is a populist, not Reagan or Bush; so 1 and 2 are bullshit.

The truth in your post is that, yes, Democrat donors are big money crapitalists these days so yes, they would like to see everything privatized so the largely-jewish oligarchy can get rich and more powerful and John Smith on Main Street can get poorer.

[CosmicCowboy]

Georgia reported record turnout today. Not sure what that means except people are tuned in.

[pgardn]

I had to watch the Fox interview. She certainly didn't help herself there. Wasn't near as entertaining as the Trump Blumberg interview. I dont necessarily agree with him but he was pretty much taking adversarial questions head on instead of ducking and dodging like Kamala did today.

Trump does have the luxury of being as nutty right wing as possible.
Just gotta get those white folk out of the Trailer Park while sober. Off the gubment payout till the end of the month. Not working on Tuesday bonus.

[SnakeBoy]

I had to watch the Fox interview. She certainly didn't help herself there. Wasn't near as entertaining as the Trump Blumberg interview. I dont necessarily agree with him but he was pretty much taking adversarial questions head on instead of ducking and dodging like Kamala did today.

Haven't watched either but I did watch the Trump Andrew Schulz podcast. That shit was hilarious.

[CosmicCowboy]

On the contrary; Trump had a good week. Betting markets flipped from Harris to Trump over the past 7 days and BTC went from 59K to near 68K. Harris' interview was a wash at best.

Betting markets never had Trump ahead in 2020 or 2016, but we'll see.


Crypto didn't spike today; more like Friday, Monday and yesterday morning. DJT jumped by like 10% over the past week in betting markets, not 15% today.

Just google DJT stock. Up 15.52% today.

[pgardn]

If you believed in democracy, you would want your party to have open primaries

Oh sure.
You can say that for 2016.

But you cant say that now. But not after 2o16. And you are worried about open primaries? allrighty then..

"No one can question the limitations of the President!"

What party has run under this banner created after their party won the presidency?

[Millennial_Messiah]

Just google DJT stock. Up 15.52% today.

I don't think that TrumpCoin will ever gain any traction even if he wins. It'll go the way of Truth Social or Google Glasses

[CosmicCowboy]

I don't think that TrumpCoin will ever gain any traction even if he wins. It'll go the way of Truth Social or Google Glasses

DJT stock IS Truth Social.

[pgardn]

DJT stock IS Truth Social.

So its up 15% from its initial evaluation?

[CosmicCowboy]

Oh sure.
You can say that for 2016.

But you cant say that now. But not after 2o16. And you are worried about open primaries? allrighty then..

"No one can question the limitations of the President!"

What party has run under this banner created after their party won the presidency?

Executive orders by the Executive have gotten completely out of control. Surprising that the Legislature has allowed it. Congress is still the one that is supposed to make the laws and the Executive is supposed to enforce it, not make their own laws. And that applies to both sides.

[CosmicCowboy]

Hell no. Talking about the trend that money thinks Trump is gonna win.

[hater]

I think we're going to war with Iran regardless. Camala thinks they're our greatest threat and Trump believes the bs that they tried to assassinate him :lol

Yes

A big war in the ME is inevitable at this point


Question is will it start before or after the elections??

Keep in mind the first victim of this big war will be the worlds economy as oil will surge to $200 a barrel within weeks and on its way to $400

Now will Bibi attack or wait?

Who knows. Gazans will start mass dying of hunger in the next couple of weeks. As no food has gone in Gaza in October. Children will die off first of course.

Will Bibi be content with tens of thousands of dead children for the next few weeks? Or will that not be enough to satisfy his blood lust???

We will find out soon...

[pgardn]

Executive orders by the Executive have gotten completely out of control. Surprising that the Legislature has allowed it. Congress is still the one that is supposed to make the laws and the Executive is supposed to enforce it, not make their own laws. And that applies to both sides.

So tell me who I quoted? from both sides?

[CosmicCowboy]

Yes

A big war in the ME is inevitable at this point


Question is will it start before or after the elections??

Keep in mind the first victim of this big war will be the worlds economy as oil will surge to $200 a barrel within weeks and on its way to $400

Will they use roads?

[pgardn]

Hell no. Talking about the trend that money thinks Trump is gonna win.

So is this volatile would you say? day to day?
What will make Truth Social more valuable if Trump wins? He gonna gubment fund it? Or people just think he will.
Its a complete shit platform much like X has become a cesspool.

[CosmicCowboy]

So tell me who I quoted? from both sides?

Actions speak louder than words. Student loan forgiveness/vote buying in defiance of the Supreme court?

[pgardn]

Yes

A big war in the ME is inevitable at this point


Question is will it start before or after the elections??

Keep in mind the first victim of this big war will be the worlds economy as oil will surge to $200 a barrel within weeks and on its way to $400

No it is not.
Oh yes.
Define big war.

Next time a conflict occurs you will post 1000 soldiers died when it was actually 4 just like you always do X man.

[hater]

Will they use roads?

Israel cant even enter a few kms into lebanon so no :lol

Roads will not be used. Israel is only good for one thing and thats bombing civilians from thousands of feet in the air :lol

[pgardn]

Actions speak louder than words. Student loan forgiveness/vote buying in defiance of the Supreme court?

"Dont worry my Christian brothers, there will be no need to VOTE after the next election."

Yeah, just not on the same level. At least the blue team tried to claim loan debt would stimulate the economy. And there were some reasons to believe it.

Please dont try to equate the two parties. They are not equal. I have been driven blue. I used to think the red team really believed that integrity and hard work will get you somewhere in this country.

[baseline bum]

I think we're going to war with Iran regardless.

2025 gonna be like Threads 1984

[SnakeBoy]

Yes

A big war in the ME is inevitable at this point


Question is will it start before or after the elections??

Keep in mind the first victim of this big war will be the worlds economy as oil will surge to $200 a barrel within weeks and on its way to $400

Now will Bibi attack or wait?

Who knows. Gazans will start mass dying of hunger in the next couple of weeks. As no food has gone in Gaza in October. Children will die off first of course.

Will Bibi be content with tens of thousands of dead children for the next few weeks? Or will that not be enough to satisfy his blood lust???

We will find out soon...

My guess is Biden won't give Bibi the green light until after the election. That still leaves plenty of time for Iran to respond so we can attack Iran to "protect" Israel. Whether it's Trump or Harris they'll want to get the party started before either take office. The warmongers will finally get the war they've been dreaming of for decades. Upside is that we'll be welcomed as liberators :lol

[florige]

On the contrary; Trump had a good week. Betting markets flipped from Harris to Trump over the past 7 days and BTC went from 59K to near 68K. Harris' interview was a wash at best.

Betting markets never had Trump ahead in 2020 or 2016, but we'll see.


Crypto didn't spike today; more like Friday, Monday and yesterday morning. DJT jumped by like 10% over the past week in betting markets, not 15% today.



Trump is a populist, not Reagan or Bush; so 1 and 2 are bullshit.

The truth in your post is that, yes, Democrat donors are big money crapitalists these days so yes, they would like to see everything privatized so the largely-jewish oligarchy can get rich and more powerful and John Smith on Main Street can get poorer.


I meant bad week with his weird town hall where he swayed back and forth for a 1/2 hour and the rhetoric of him using the military against radical leftists. But after 2016 I really don’t know anymore . He’s under performed in the polls the last two elections so we’ll see how it goes

[SnakeBoy]

Oh sure.
You can say that for 2016.

But you cant say that now. But not after 2o16. And you are worried about open primaries? allrighty then..

"No one can question the limitations of the President!"

What party has run under this banner created after their party won the presidency?

Oh boy, ya'll are gonna cry like babies if Trump wins.

Okay fuck it, fuck long term political strategy, I'm changing my mind and hoping for a Trump win. If it happens, I'll probably get dabeetus from eating so much popcorn but it'll be worth it.

[baseline bum]

Trump is a populist, not Reagan or Bush; so 1 and 2 are bullshit.


LOL low information voter. Trump literally defunded Social Security, and in 2020 he ran on making his defunding permanent.

[baseline bum]

Oh boy, ya'll are gonna cry like babies if Trump wins.

Okay fuck it, fuck long term political strategy, I'm changing my mind and hoping for a Trump win. If it happens, I'll probably get dabeetus from eating so much popcorn but it'll be worth it.

I hope the nation riots and gets burned to the ground if he wins the electoral college.

[florige]

If Trump was running his 2016 campaign he'd easily win. Though I'm still concerned about the 'she's a woman and a negro' shy voter.


I don’t think that Trump necessarily ran a good campaign in 2016, I think that Hillary just ran a very bad/lazy one since everyone including Trump thought she was going to win easily. How are you gonna not campaign at all in a swing state?

[baseline bum]

I don’t think that Trump necessarily ran a good campaign in 2016, I think that Hillary just ran a very bad/lazy one since everyone including Trump thought she was going to win easily. How are you gonna not campaign at all in a swing state?

Trump ran a great campaign in 2016, hitting Hillary from the left at Bannon's direction on things like healthcare and taxes while she completely ignored policy and ran on him being a piece of shit. They were obviously all lies but they fooled people like SnakeBoy who was insistent Trump would govern as a Democrat.

[Blake]

He's not my guy. I was just asked for a prediction of the outcome. Neither side has a good candidate.

I'll accept neither side as a both sides post.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Trump ran a great campaign in 2016, hitting Hillary from the left at Bannon's direction on things like healthcare and taxes while she completely ignored policy and ran on him being a piece of shit. They were obviously all lies but they fooled people like SnakeBoy (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=12109) who was insistent Trump would govern as a Democrat.
What do you mean by democrat though? Like Mondale, Dukakis, or even Slick Willie?

Today's democrats are not looking out for the white working class union voter on main street who struggles to pay bills, seniors needing social security and medicare, and taxing the rich. Today's dems are not populist. Today's dems are very crony crapitalist and elitist and funnel billions and trillions through the big majority-jewish asset managers so the big bosses can get richer and the average citizen gets poorer through high inflation and consumption costs of basic necessities like gas and groceries due to high logistical costs and they use "muh save the planet" as the false-flag excuse.


I don’t think that Trump necessarily ran a good campaign in 2016, I think that Hillary just ran a very bad/lazy one since everyone including Trump thought she was going to win easily. How are you gonna not campaign at all in a swing state?

The thing is, in 2016 people weren't talking about MI or (especially) WI being swing states. They were talking about the core swing states being FL/NC/OH (all must win for Trump but not Hillary) with an outside shot of a very narrow pathway for Trump through pulling off either New Hampshire AND Nevada or Colorado with a very slim outside shot at Pennsylvania. They were, of course, all wrong. But MI and WI weren't in the picture and were consistently polling Hilldawg +8 or better all the way up through e-day.


LOL low information voter. Trump literally defunded Social Security, and in 2020 he ran on making his defunding permanent.
The immigrants illegally on social security and young and able U.S. citizen workers who shouldn't be on SS, have depleted SS, not Trump or GOP policy.


Actions speak louder than words. Student loan forgiveness/vote buying in defiance of the Supreme court?
Agreed. :tu whether you argue whether it might "stimulate the economy" or not, it sets a horrid precedent and is horridly unfair for those who paid their way through school or went on meritorious scholarships.


I hope the nation riots and gets burned to the ground if he wins the electoral college.
So, openly supporting terrorist activity, eh? :lol Do us all a favor and never mention Jan. 6, 2021 again.

[florige]

Trump ran a great campaign in 2016, hitting Hillary from the left at Bannon's direction on things like healthcare and taxes while she completely ignored policy and ran on him being a piece of shit. They were obviously all lies but they fooled people like SnakeBoy who was insistent Trump would govern as a Democrat.


While you’re right he was going after policy sorta. But iirc he was going after her character too about her emails, and the whole Banzhai debacle. I think in 2016 he was maybe able to stay on message sorta better, but he was always painting her out to be a crook to the 3rd degree. But you are right she got right in the mud with him and he slung it better. I still think she ran a lazy campaign and relied on people like the Obama’s to carry her over the finish line. I remember Michelle Obama speaking at a Hillary rally in VA and the crowd started chanting “four more years” Thats kinda when i started worrying kinda. But i still thought she would pull it off despite all of that . Harris isn’t pounding the messages right imo. They need to tell her to let go of that project 2025 stuff. Until there is something directly linking Trump to it I would stop talking about it

[ChumpDumper]

Trump's going to win.

Insecure males and the women who think it will make their lives easier.

[baseline bum]

Today's democrats are not looking out for the white working class union voter on main street who struggles to pay bills, seniors needing social security and medicare, and taxing the rich. Today's dems are not populist. Today's dems are very crony crapitalist and elitist and funnel billions and trillions through the big majority-jewish asset managers so the big bosses can get richer and the average citizen gets poorer through high inflation and consumption costs of basic necessities like gas and groceries due to high logistical costs and they use "muh save the planet" as the false-flag excuse.


Today's Democrats put a $2000 a year out of pocket cap on drug prices seniors pay in Medicare Part D and today's Democrats finally made moves to have Medicare negotiate prices on ten drugs. Today's Democrats also capped insulin at $35 a month for people on Medicare. It's a far cry from a sane single payer system that so much of the rest of the rich world has figured out is the most effective solution both on quality and price since it's only for seniors but it's way more than the GOP offers so get the fuck out of here acting like Trump would do anything for the people here. ROFL bringing up populism while simping for a billionaire whose only legislation passed was a tax cut for himself and the rest of the American oligarchy. It's the funniest shit in the world seeing his nazi base glorify him for being tough on illegal immigration when he still hires illegals. It's just pure racism, making life shittier for illegal immigrants while still wanting to hire them to undercut American labor. Blaming inflation on non-existent steps to curb global warming instead of corporate price gouging and cartels is some ignorant shit too.

[pgardn]

What do you mean by democrat though? Like Mondale, Dukakis, or even Slick Willie?

Today's democrats are not looking out for the white working class union voter on main street who struggles to pay bills, seniors needing social security and medicare, and taxing the rich. Today's dems are not populist. Today's dems are very crony crapitalist and elitist and funnel billions and trillions through the big majority-jewish asset managers so the big bosses can get richer and the average citizen gets poorer through high inflation and consumption costs of basic necessities like gas and groceries due to high logistical costs and they use "muh save the planet" as the false-flag excuse.





The thing is, in 2016 people weren't talking about MI or (especially) WI being swing states. They were talking about the core swing states being FL/NC/OH (all must win for Trump but not Hillary) with an outside shot of a very narrow pathway for Trump through pulling off either New Hampshire AND Nevada or Colorado with a very slim outside shot at Pennsylvania. They were, of course, all wrong. But MI and WI weren't in the picture and were consistently polling Hilldawg +8 or better all the way up through e-day.


The immigrants illegally on social security and young and able U.S. citizen workers who shouldn't be on SS, have depleted SS, not Trump or GOP policy.


Agreed. :tu whether you argue whether it might "stimulate the economy" or not, it sets a horrid precedent and is horridly unfair for those who paid their way through school or went on meritorious scholarships.


So, openly supporting terrorist activity, eh? :lol Do us all a favor and never mention Jan. 6, 2021 again.


This entire retort is a joke.

Starting with the first paragraph. Like Republicans are looking out for anything? The Republicans are a party of one man''s whimsical fkn old demented personality.

Save muh planet? You want to swim in your own shit apparently and dont see the consequences. Do you have any clue how much we are paying right now for our stupidity with our own air and water?

There is so much ignorance...
There are no real Republicans anymore, there are cultists of which you are a part of.
Lies about immigration. Neither party has made an attempt to really tackle the problem just like Health Care.
One party wants government out of our lives yet enacts the strictest government rules on personal freedom.
Basic Civil Rights would never get a whiff of a chance under this new cult.
" Oh but I get to say anything I want even if I ask for help with a lynching and I can shit in the backdoor stream that leads to my neighbors downstream" These are Republican ideas of rights.
The people I am surrounded by can go to hell, muh rights.

And you dare chant USA... You have not a clue about basic societies functioning and how this even came about. "Into the woods, this is my land; stay off it and see you later, only if you step foot near me. Dont"
I know you are an outcast but at least be serious...

[Blake]

Oh boy, ya'll are gonna cry like babies if Trump wins.

Okay fuck it, fuck long term political strategy, I'm changing my mind and hoping for a Trump win. If it happens, I'll probably get dabeetus from eating so much popcorn but it'll be worth it.

Lol "changing your mind" as if you weren't voting Trump from day 1

[Blake]

I hope the nation riots and gets burned to the ground if he wins the electoral college.

Not enough January 6 maga style rioters on the left

[Winehole23]

Not enough January 6 maga style rioters on the leftit's true: the left isn't passionate enough to kill people and try to knock over the US government.

not a problem on the right, though.

[SnakeBoy]

I hope the nation riots and gets burned to the ground if he wins the electoral college.

Me too. Won't be the nation libs burn just their own shitty blue districts same as they always do. It's a joy to watch libs shit on themselves cuz muh rights :cry

[SnakeBoy]

Trump ran a great campaign in 2016, hitting Hillary from the left at Bannon's direction on things like healthcare and taxes while she completely ignored policy and ran on him being a piece of shit. They were obviously all lies but they fooled people like SnakeBoy who was insistent Trump would govern as a Democrat.

For the most part he did. With the notable exception of the court appointments, kept his word on that. He's moved the GOP left and Dems are moving right in response. It's fascinating to watch a realignment play out in real time. Strange you are moving right along with the Dems considering how much you complain about the party moving right. I guess the old saying is correct...shitlibs do what shitlibs do.

[SnakeBoy]

Lol "changing your mind" as if you weren't voting Trump from day 1

I said hoping not voting. Read the posts for context.

[ChumpDumper]

:lol the boiling resentment in every snacks post

[SnakeBoy]

:lol the boiling resentment in every snacks post

I don't resent you being a shitlib I'm glad. Makes for win/win elections from my perspective. We've had this conversation already.

[ChumpDumper]

We've seen your boiling resentment already.

[SnakeBoy]

We've seen your boiling resentment already.

You're gonna cry like a baby if Trump wins

[Millennial_Messiah]

it's true: the left isn't passionate enough to kill people and try to knock over the US government.

not a problem on the right, though.

Not enough January 6 maga style rioters on the left

Summer 2020.



Today's Democrats put a $2000 a year out of pocket cap on drug prices seniors pay in Medicare Part D and today's Democrats finally made moves to have Medicare negotiate prices on ten drugs. Today's Democrats also capped insulin at $35 a month for people on Medicare. It's a far cry from a sane single payer system that so much of the rest of the rich world has figured out is the most effective solution both on quality and price since it's only for seniors but it's way more than the GOP offers so get the fuck out of here acting like Trump would do anything for the people here. ROFL bringing up populism while simping for a billionaire whose only legislation passed was a tax cut for himself and the rest of the American oligarchy. It's the funniest shit in the world seeing his nazi base glorify him for being tough on illegal immigration when he still hires illegals. It's just pure racism, making life shittier for illegal immigrants while still wanting to hire them to undercut American labor. Blaming inflation on non-existent steps to curb global warming instead of corporate price gouging and cartels is some ignorant shit too.


Obamacare made insurance companies and doctors richer and the average US Citizen poorer. It's undeniable.


Realistically they should axe Medicaid and install Medicare for All with a $500-1000 deductible and individual max out of pocket of $2,000 per year (per individual) with copays of $20/40 ish for PCP and specialist, 20%ish co-insurance after deductible up to max out of pocket.

I don't believe everything should be 100% free, that would clog up the medical systems with schmucks and hoboes and people with paper cuts. Once you meet the $2,000 max out of pocket, then yes everything should be free for the remainder of calendar year.

I do believe "Medicare Part D" should be abolished and prescription drugs should be $10/20 copay for generics (30/90 day) & should count towards the individual $2,000 max out of pocket as part of the calendar year medical plan, rather than being a separate charge.

Under my policy plan, it doesn't matter how much insulin or any specific drug or procedure costs, because no matter what each individual person is only responsible for no more than $2,000 per year for all official medical care including inpatient, outpatient, imaging, office visits, and prescriptions.

[baseline bum]

For the most part he did. With the notable exception of the court appointments, kept his word on that. He's moved the GOP left and Dems are moving right in response. It's fascinating to watch a realignment play out in real time. Strange you are moving right along with the Dems considering how much you complain about the party moving right. I guess the old saying is correct...shitlibs do what shitlibs do.

How has Trump moved the GOP to the left? Making them an unmistakable blood and soil nazi party? Taking away women's right to abortion in half the nation? Court appointments straight out of the Heritage Foundation recommendations is easily the most consequential thing Trump has done. Defunding Social Security? Project 2025? Don't know where you get that I'm moving right just because I hate Trump more than Harris and Biden. The only non-right wing thing he has done is tariffs on China which would have been great back in 1992 to save our manufacturing base but the horse is long out of the barn and is two towns over now so too late to close that door.

[baseline bum]

Obamacare made insurance companies and doctors richer and the average US Citizen poorer. It's undeniable.


ACA is shitty no doubt, especially after Lieberman and likely a few other Democrat senators who wanted him to be their lighting rod killed the public option, but that's a lie saying ACA is why healthcare costs have spiraled out of control when it's a long term trend that started blowing up to hell around the turn of the century before anyone knew who the magic negro was.

[hater]

Me too. Won't be the nation libs burn just their own shitty blue districts same as they always do. It's a joy to watch libs shit on themselves cuz muh rights :cry

Watching the BLM riots online was fun as fuck :lmao

It was basically modern Circus Maximus :lmao

I still remember a few legendary fatalities. Like when that old man was pushed by the cops and broke the back of his head into pieces. Or when BLM attacked a store owner and bashed his head like a watermelon

BLM v 2.0 would be fun imo :lol

[baseline bum]

Me too. Won't be the nation libs burn just their own shitty blue districts same as they always do. It's a joy to watch libs shit on themselves cuz muh rights :cry

LOL thinking the rioters are liberals. Also always cracks me up when white people say 'why are those ######s burning down their own community' like it's their community when they're renting from some corporate landlord and the neighborhood is filled with Targets and Walmarts who take money out of the community while paying starvation wages.

[Winehole23]

Boogaloo boy set the Minneapolis 3rd Precinct on fire -- not libs

[ChumpDumper]

You're gonna cry like a baby if Trump wins

Nah, I've seen people like you all my life.

[ChumpDumper]

LOL thinking the rioters are liberals. Also always cracks me up when white people say 'why are those ######s burning down their own community' like it's their community when they're renting from some corporate landlord and the neighborhood is filled with Targets and Walmarts who take money out of the community while paying starvation wages.

Dude, Mookie threw that trash can through Sal's window.

[baseline bum]

Boogaloo boy set the Minneapolis 3rd Precinct on fire -- not libs

Boogaloo Boy from Boerne

[Leetonidas]

Watching the BLM riots online was fun as fuck :lmao

It was basically modern Circus Maximus :lmao

I still remember a few legendary fatalities. Like when that old man was pushed by the cops and broke the back of his head into pieces. Or when BLM attacked a store owner and bashed his head like a watermelon

BLM v 2.0 would be fun imo :lol

Seek help

[LkrFan]

When Rump is losing FauxNoose
1847018324959379831

[Chucho]

Kamala Harris has this in the bag. With the Feds deliberately being slow, negligent and nefarious in doling out support and aid to the Mid Atlantic and South Atlantic hurricane crises zones to purposely keep the Carolinas and Florida electoral votes away from Trump and the fact Trump is an evolving human shit-show, there's no way she can lose this.


Really hard to not like Kamala at this point in the race. She's going to be a great wartime leader and has a fully expendable generation with little to no real life experience yet enough volume from which to draft soldiers from. Crime will finally be looked at under the proper lenses again and many a young minority criminal will be filling private penitentiaries, giving Big Corporate's customers American goods at fair prices and securing the inner cities and ghettos of Murica a little bit more.

She's got my vote.

[hater]

Seek help

Nope

After the Gaza genocide. A simple BLMayhem with spectacular fatalities is a G rated movie :lmao

Ce la vi

[Winehole23]

BLM was the biggest mass political protest movement since the early-mid 2000s, and not because it was the most violent -- violence is just more available in the news than totally peaceful manifestations, which were the norm. Violence was the exception, ergo much more prominent in people's minds.

The anticapitalist left in Seattle and Portland have specific beefs with LE and the government going back at least to the 1990s, and sure enough, the most spectacular and sustained violence in 2020 were in those two places. Elsewhere, it subsided as the police violence ramped up. A similar procedure was used to subdue the OCCUPY movement.

Elsewhere, it was not really that bad apart from twitchy, rioting cops.

[Blake]

Me too. Won't be the nation libs burn just their own shitty blue districts same as they always do. It's a joy to watch libs shit on themselves cuz muh rights :cry

Did you find joy in January 6?

[Blake]

When Rump is losing FauxNoose
1847018324959379831

Yeah the fox News magatards already started scribbling down how stupid she looks before the interview began. They couldn't wait.

[SnakeBoy]

Did you find joy in January 6?

The fedsurrection was a pretty funny couple of hours

[hater]

The fedsurrection was a pretty funny couple of hours

It was hilarious

And the Demoretard meltdown even more

Ocasio Cortez crying that she was gonna get raped :lmao :lmao

[Blake]

The fedsurrection was a pretty funny couple of hours


It was hilarious

And the Demoretard meltdown even more

Ocasio Cortez crying that she was gonna get raped :lmao :lmao

Thanks for confirming why everybody just makes fun of you guys

[ChumpDumper]

The fedsurrection was a pretty funny couple of hours

:lmao always a conspiracy theory

[Barfunk]

All I know is if you want to *PROGRESS* towards a religious theocratic dictatorship and police state, you vote for the modern right-wing party/Trump etc, point blank period. If the extreme right-wing were to somehow ever get control of the military (probably unlikely, fortunately), we are in big big trouble.

[LkrFan]

Yeah the fox News magatards already started scribbling down how stupid she looks before the interview began. They couldn't wait.

100% :tu

[LkrFan]

The fedsurrection was a pretty funny couple of hours

Like your uncle Raphael Ted Cruz, yo ass woulda been hiding in a broom closet. Probably sitting on a broomstick too :lol

[z0sa]

Heart wants neither, but Harris is the lesser of two evils.

Brain and gut says inflation alone has handed Trump the presidency. He has no real policy or agenda and will follow the Republican establishment wherever their river courses.

Harris needs massive turnout but it feels like she's going to get the HRC treatment. I admit, it's even possible Trump wins the popular vote (based upon 2020 results, which could easily be an outlier, admittedly). Crazy to think but this nation is full of people who refuse to pay taxes for the shit they want and will believe anything. We've got a massive critical thinking problem and the billionaires on both sides are taking full advantage. There is no bad option for them.

[SnakeBoy]

Heart wants neither, but Harris is the lesser of two evils.

Brain and gut says inflation alone has handed Trump the presidency. He has no real policy or agenda and will follow the Republican establishment wherever their river courses.

Harris needs massive turnout but it feels like she's going to get the HRC treatment. I admit, it's even possible Trump wins the popular vote (based upon 2020 results, which could easily be an outlier, admittedly). Crazy to think but this nation is full of people who refuse to pay taxes for the shit they want and will believe anything. We've got a massive critical thinking problem and the billionaires on both sides are taking full advantage. There is no bad option for them.

Not just billionaires. I'd say the top 10% are voting for their best interest with either party. The other 90% are deciding if shit tastes better with red or blue sauce.

[florige]

Heart wants neither, but Harris is the lesser of two evils.

Brain and gut says inflation alone has handed Trump the presidency. He has no real policy or agenda and will follow the Republican establishment wherever their river courses.

Harris needs massive turnout but it feels like she's going to get the HRC treatment. I admit, it's even possible Trump wins the popular vote (based upon 2020 results, which could easily be an outlier, admittedly). Crazy to think but this nation is full of people who refuse to pay taxes for the shit they want and will believe anything. We've got a massive critical thinking problem and the billionaires on both sides are taking full advantage. There is no bad option for them.




I think her campaign knows this and that’s why they are having all the dem top tiers campaigning for her these last few weeks to try and turn out the vote. I think she has to continue pushing these interviews to continue to get her face out there some way somehow. People already had a predetermination on Hillary they pretty much hated her guts and the whole email nonsense didn’t help matters any. Nothing she could had done would change people’s mind to come out and vote even after Obama. Harris doesn’t really have that problem, what she has is she doesn’t have that Bill Clinton, Obama recognition to get voters out possibly. But we’ll see. Thankfully for her this little stall has happened three weeks out and not the week before like it did Hillary in 2016 . She still has some time but not much. She just needs to hope that Trump keeps being out on the stump saying and doing really stupid stuff

[z0sa]

I think her campaign knows this and that’s why they are having all the dem top tiers campaigning for her these last few weeks to try and turn out the vote. I think she has to continue pushing these interviews to continue to get her face out there some way somehow. People already had a predetermination on Hillary they pretty much hated her guts and the whole email nonsense didn’t help matters any. Nothing she could had done would change people’s mind to come out and vote even after Obama. Harris doesn’t really have that problem, what she has is she doesn’t have that Bill Clinton, Obama recognition to get voters out possibly. But we’ll see. Thankfully for her this little stall has happened three weeks out and not the week before like it did Hillary in 2016 . She still has some time but not much. She just needs to hope that Trump keeps being out on the stump saying and doing really stupid stuff

Trump saying stupid stuff endears him to the legions of stupid people in this country. There's no reason, none, that it should even be close, but people simply don't care as long as they can keep borrowing on their great great grandchildren's heads and their conspiracy theories are taken at face value as fact.

Let's not forget the fact that Kamala is a woman.

Never thought I'd be on the Boutons train, but this country is fucked/unfuckable.

[Ef-man]

538 poll on favorable or unfavorable opinion of the 34 count felon

Unfavorable:52.2%
Favorable:43.3%

Oof

Favorable or unfavorable opinion of Harris
Unfavorable:47.2%
Favorable:46.6%

[TSA]

538 poll on favorable or unfavorable opinion of the 34 count felon

Unfavorable:52.2%
Favorable:43.3%

Oof

Favorable or unfavorable opinion of Harris
Unfavorable:47.2%
Favorable:46.6%538 polling aggregate. Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

"For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

oof

[TSA]

There's no reason, none, that it should even be close
Harris is the worst Dem candidate to run in decades.

[z0sa]

Harris is the worst Dem candidate to run in decades.

Still far better than Trump.

[ChumpDumper]

Harris is the worst Dem candidate to run in decades.

:lol Trump swayed to music for 40 minutes instead of taking questions at his own town hall

[Chucho]

Trump saying stupid stuff endears him to the legions of stupid people in this country. There's no reason, none, that it should even be close, but people simply don't care as long as they can keep borrowing on their great great grandchildren's heads and their conspiracy theories are taken at face value as fact.

Let's not forget the fact that Kamala is a woman.

Never thought I'd be on the Boutons train, but this country is fucked/unfuckable.

We're alright for the time being. We've got another 50 or so years before it really hits the fan. And, if we really come out throwing haymakers in this almost inevitable war we're gonna be entering after the election, we can prolong the eventual downfall maybe 100-150 more years.

This war will be good for us, no matter who leads us into it.

[z0sa]

We're alright for the time being. We've got another 50 or so years before it really hits the fan. And, if we really come out throwing haymakers in this almost inevitable war we're gonna be entering after the election, we can prolong the eventual downfall maybe 100-150 more years.

This war will be good for us, no matter who leads us into it.

I've got kids and a family. I don't want any retarded wars our Republican "friends" want to drag us into over their lack of critical thinking and common sense.

Any civil war here would immediately be acted upon by China and Russia is conventional means that would destroy our alliances and likely our country.

PS we have nukes which could easily fall into the wrong hands as well.

There's no good outcome from another civil war. Especially over vague, baseless conspiracy theories and outright lies.

[Ef-man]

538 polling aggregate. Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

"For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

oof

9% unfavorable rating is not within MoE.

Oof

[Blake]

Not just billionaires. I'd say the top 10% are voting for their best interest with either party. The other 90% are deciding if shit tastes better with red or blue sauce.

They should be deciding if they like the sauce with mild shit or the fire/Diablo shit.

[Blake]

Harris is the worst Dem candidate to run in decades.

Trump is the worst overall candidate to run in decades. This should be simple for everyone.

[TSA]

538 poll on favorable or unfavorable opinion of the 34 count felon

Unfavorable:52.2%
Favorable:43.3%

Oof

Favorable or unfavorable opinion of Harris
Unfavorable:47.2%
Favorable:46.6%

Gallup?!?! :wow

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1848793694880903591

oof

[Ef-man]

Gallup?!?! :wow

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1848793694880903591

oof

poll vs polls

Oof

[SnakeBoy]

Trump is the worst overall candidate to run in decades. This should be simple for everyone.

Hillary atm

Kamala takes the title if she loses

[TSA]

poll vs polls

Oof

Trying to compare 538's lol aggregate to the best polling around.

oof

[Ef-man]

Trying to compare 538's lol aggregate to the best polling around.

oof

poll vs polls

Oof

[TSA]

poll vs polls

Oof

Favorable/Unfavorable polls vs Battleground polls

https://x.com/mattmargolis/status/1848722153534796078

41llBu0c2fU

[Ef-man]

Favorable/Unfavorable polls vs Battleground polls

https://x.com/mattmargolis/status/1848722153534796078

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExM3VoOHA0bTB4djN4eGltbjZid2pqdzg 5bzRwdzJ2cHE5N25xMzVvayZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfY nlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/9QXZQJEtE7697Ul5NN/giphy.gif


Also from RCP - Polls from Battle Ground States favor Harris by +0.9%

Harris - 49.3%
Felon - 48.4%

Oof

[TSA]

Also from RCP - Polls from Battle Ground States favor Harris by +0.9%

Harris - 49.3%
Felon - 48.4%

Oof

RCP Battlegrounds Trump +1.2

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

stupid fuck :lmao


https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExM3VoOHA0bTB4djN4eGltbjZid2pqdzg 5bzRwdzJ2cHE5N25xMzVvayZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfY nlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/9QXZQJEtE7697Ul5NN/giphy.gif

[TSA]

https://x.com/MadAboutSkin01/status/1848832874788835410

oof

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1848825534249157118

oof

[Chucho]

I've got kids and a family. I don't want any retarded wars our Republican "friends" want to drag us into over their lack of critical thinking and common sense.

Any civil war here would immediately be acted upon by China and Russia is conventional means that would destroy our alliances and likely our country.

PS we have nukes which could easily fall into the wrong hands as well.

There's no good outcome from another civil war. Especially over vague, baseless conspiracy theories and outright lies.

Wait...you think the Republicans are going to win?!?!

No sir. The Democrats have this wrapped up and I'm all for it, to be honest.

[Millennial_Messiah]

https://x.com/MadAboutSkin01/status/1848832874788835410

oof

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1848825534249157118

oof

Florida is going to get called at poll closing this time, and Virginia is not, which will dictate the tenor of the race early imo.

I think Virginia margin is lean D roughly similar to 2016.

[Blake]

Hillary atm

Kamala takes the title if she loses

Nope. Hillary at least had experience as a politician and as secretary of state. Trump had.... the Apprentice.

[SnakeBoy]

Nope. Hillary at least had experience as a politician and as secretary of state. Trump had.... the Apprentice.

Lost to a game show host = worst candidate

[Blake]

Lost to a game show host = worst candidate

She won the popular vote. So will Kamala. It's our voting system that is shit.

[benefactor]

I fell for the polls in 2016. I'm not making that mistake again. This election is going to be who wins to "hold your nose" vote. it's hard to argue that Kamala is the worst of the two terrible candidates. The only people can't see what Trump is are his cult. Everyone else knows exactly what he is. That can somewhat be said about Kamala too, but the sheet that follows Trump around is much longer...sort of Clinton...but worse

[Winehole23]

day before the election, 2020


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaecnaoXUAAPMx8?format=jpg&name=900x900

[TSA]

day before the election, 2020


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaecnaoXUAAPMx8?format=jpg&name=900x900

That’s from a betting market dipshit :lol

Not a single pollster or aggregate map heading into the 2020 election looked anything like that. All of their maps had Biden winning handily.

You’re searching for any scrap of hopium you can find winehole. You need to stop frequenting hopiumchronicles.com and start figuring out how you’re going to cope.

[TSA]

She won the popular vote. So will Kamala. It's our voting system that is shit.

There’s a good chance Trump wins the popular vote. What will be your excuse then?

[z0sa]

Wait...you think the Republicans are going to win?!?!

No sir. The Democrats have this wrapped up and I'm all for it, to be honest.

Didn't realize you were trolling. Have fun with that.

[Blake]

There’s a good chance Trump wins the popular vote. What will be your excuse then?

Define good in percent.

[CosmicCowboy]

She won the popular vote. So will Kamala. It's our voting system that is shit.

Blake doesn't like the Constitution .

[ChumpDumper]

Blake doesn't like the Constitution .I wasn't a fan of the 3/5 clause either tbh.

[baseline bum]

Not just billionaires. I'd say the top 10% are voting for their best interest with either party. The other 90% are deciding if shit tastes better with red or blue sauce.

I know this is just lazy trolling with your false equivalences shitposting, but the law capping out of pocket costs for prescription drugs in Medicare Part D to $2000 a year that Biden signed into law and which takes effect in 2025 is huge for the bottom 90% on Medicare. It's clear Trump will remove that cap the first chance he gets. It's also clear Trump will murder Social Security since he has defunded it before and ran in 2020 on making that defunding permanent. He'll still do it in 2025 if elected, but this time around he's smart enough to not run on 'Let's Kill Social Security!' Pretty obvious Trump is by far the worse option for the bottom 90% even if it is emotionally fulfilling to hate ######s and Mexicans for his nazi base.

[Millennial_Messiah]

day before the election, 2020


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaecnaoXUAAPMx8?format=jpg&name=900x900

NC/GA and FL/TX going red by >96% but Alaska by only 89% chance, suuuuuure. California at 95% blue but Colorado at 99% blue and Tennessee at 97% red. I can believe the rust belt numbers outside of Ohio but that map is bullshit.


I fell for the polls in 2016. I'm not making that mistake again. This election is going to be who wins to "hold your nose" vote. it's hard to argue that Kamala is the worst of the two terrible candidates. The only people can't see what Trump is are his cult. Everyone else knows exactly what he is. That can somewhat be said about Kamala too, but the sheet that follows Trump around is much longer...sort of Clinton...but worse
Trump wins the "hold your nose" vote by dictator margins tbh.

[Winehole23]

That’s from a betting market dipshit :lolthat was my point

[Winehole23]

2016 was a miss, 2020 badly underestimated Biden's level of support, and 2022 was another miss

seems foolish to rely overmuch on polls



To those five basic sentiment issues, political polling has additional problems:


1. Landline phones
2. Voter intentionality
3. Mobile phones & Caller ID
4. Voter turnout
5. Voter participation


Let’s briefly consider each.
https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Landline.png (https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Landline.png)1. Landlines: In 2000, 95% of American households still had a landline phone. Today, it is merely 27% (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/06/23/landline-telephone-holdouts/).

Losing three-quarters of households is an enormous decrease, and this radically impacts who pollsters can reach. (I am ignoring text and online polls as they are even worse than phone polls). It’s fair to conclude that this makes creating a representative pool of American voters very challenging.

2. Intentionality: I believe most (many?) people who respond to polls answer honestly. The problem is, people often don’t know what they genuinely believe. (Behavioral finance helps explain why this is so).

Everybody is focused on the undecided. Yes, these “Persuadables” matter. But my guess is they make up less than 7% of voters – maybe even less than 3%. What truly matters to outcomes is who and how many people actually cast a vote. Regardless of whether you are a hardcore political partisan or an independent, you may say you are going to vote — but the data shows that a third of you fail to do so. This behavior is what swings presidential elections.

https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Unknown-callers.png (https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Unknown-callers.png)

3. Mobile phones (Caller ID): Who is answering unknown calls on their mobile phone? Unless you are expecting a call from someone whose number you don’t have – delivery, contractor, doctor, etc. – your phone (like mine) is probably set to “Silence Unknown Callers.” These go straight to voicemail — and if they don’t leave a message, its probably spam.

Who answers calls from unknown people and spends 20 minutes answering questions? I suspect they are not a representative pool of American voters.

4. Voter participation: The United States has one of the lowest percentages (https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/how-does-us-voter-turnout-compare-rest-worlds) of eligible voters who actually participate in presidential elections (it’s even worse for state and local elections, as well as non-POTUS election years).

PBS (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/voter-turnout-united-states), citing data from the United States Election Project (https://www.electproject.org/), reported that “only 36% of registered voters cast ballots during the 2014 election cycle, the lowest turnout in a general election since 1942.”

In 2020, after a massive voter registration drive, the Census estimated that 168.3 million people were registered to vote. This was two-thirds (66.7%) of the total voting-age population. Most modern developed democracies have much higher voter registration rates. The United Kingdom has 91.8% (2019 parliamentary election); Germany, Australia, and Canada also have over 90% of eligible voters registered. Sweden and Japan automatically register citizens once they become eligible—they run a near 100% voter registration rate.

A surprising number of Americans assume they’re registered—and many are not. The 80 million eligible people not registered is a giant variable when it comes to polls. No wonder the margin of error is actually double what is typically estimated.

https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/turnout.png (https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/turnout.png)

5. Voter turnout: The key challenge for pollsters is that people have no idea what their behavior will be in the future. This is why polls are merely “fair” a month and “kind of accurate” a week or so out, but they are completely useless a year, six months, or even two months before most elections.

Since 1980, turnout in presidential elections has ranged from 50% to 67% of the voting-age population (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/11/01/turnout-in-u-s-has-soared-in-recent-elections-but-by-some-measures-still-trails-that-of-many-other-countries/). The 2020 presidential election had the highest voter turnout in decades, at 66.8%, but this still pales in comparison to most other Western Democracies.

Who gets up off the couch, goes to the local school or library, and casts their vote? The answer is a giant unknown. What is known is that a third to half of eligible voters don’t. This is also why a 2-3% margin of error is laughably wrong—it’s much closer to a 6-8% margin of error.

For any early poll to be accurate, it must accomplish 5 difficult tasks:


1. Reach a representative audience
2. Have people accurately self-identify
3. Use unbiased polling questions
4. Receive honest answers
5. Get accurate predictions of people’s own future behaviors.


The first four all create errors – pollsters can take steps to compensate (in part) for those issues, but it’s still fraught with mistakes.

The last one is devastating to polling accuracy.
Bad Polling is a Behavioral Problem - The Big Picture (https://ritholtz.com/2024/10/bad-polls/)

[TSA]

2016 was a miss, 2020 badly underestimated Biden's level of support, and 2022 was another miss

seems foolish to rely overmuch on polls


Bad Polling is a Behavioral Problem - The Big Picture (https://ritholtz.com/2024/10/bad-polls/)

All the misses when Trump has run have favored the D candidate. To think they've fixed their polling for 2024 is pure hopium :lol

2016 badly underestimated Trump. 2020 badly underestimated Trump.

https://x.com/KellyannePolls/status/1848774203295584589

[Winehole23]

All the misses when Trump has run have favored the D candidate. To think they've fixed their polling for 2024 is pure hopium :lol

2016 badly underestimated Trump. 2020 badly underestimated Trump.

https://x.com/KellyannePolls/status/1848774203295584589I don't have hope the polls have been fixed. I think they're still wonky.

[Winehole23]

Does this signify a Trump collapse in just three days?

I don't think so.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gakibk3WIAEBnO0?format=jpg&name=small

[TSA]

Does this signify a Trump collapse in just three days?

I don't think so.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gakibk3WIAEBnO0?format=jpg&name=small

A Harris lead of only 2% in a National Poll is an easy electoral college win for Trump :lol

[TSA]

I don't have hope the polls have been fixed. I think they're still wonky.

They haven't been fixed. Gallup polled the electorate as R+1 this year. Tons of polls being put out are polled at D+5 and higher. Literal hopium polls.

[Winehole23]

A Harris lead of only 2% in a National Poll is an easy electoral college win for Trump :lolonly if you assume the poll predicts what will happen on election day. three days ago it had Trump up by three points.

[Winehole23]

They haven't been fixed. Gallup polled the electorate as R+1 this year. Tons of polls being put out are polled at D+5 and higher. Literal hopium polls.interesting, according to you, the polls are only accurate if they show Trump winning

[TSA]

only if you assume the poll predicts what will happen on election day. three days ago it had Trump up by three points.

That poll you linked from TIPP is a daily poll :lol

[TSA]

interesting, according to you, the polls are only accurate if they show Trump winning

I don't think they are accurate and I think they are still underestimating Trump like they always have, I think he's winning by even more than the polls say.

[Winehole23]

That poll you linked from TIPP is a daily poll :lolyes it is

[Winehole23]

I don't think they are accurate and I think they are still underestimating Trump like they always have, I think he's winning by even more than the polls say.yeah, you've already made up your mind what the outcome will be, based on polls and vibes. for better and for worse, voters have the final say, I wonder if you'll believe them if Trump loses again.

[Winehole23]

Q poll went from +4 Trump to +3 Harris in two weeks.

Is Trump cratering, or is the poll struggling to find purchase on levels of support?

1849149064237199494

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1849149064237199494

[TSA]

Q poll went from +4 Trump to +3 Harris in two weeks.

Is Trump cratering, or is the poll struggling to find purchase on levels of support?

1849149064237199494

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1849149064237199494

I was waiting for you to latch on this latest hopium poll :lmao

https://x.com/chriswithans/status/1849159231070691702

You cry about "red team polls" and then blindly repost garbage like this without looking at the sample.

https://x.com/DavidGiglioCA/status/1849158971409772636

https://x.com/MythicalExegete/status/1849163709895028927

[ChumpDumper]

Methodology important now.

[TSA]

Methodology important now.

Cope harder.

[SnakeBoy]

I know this is just lazy trolling with your false equivalences shitposting, but the law capping out of pocket costs for prescription drugs in Medicare Part D to $2000 a year that Biden signed into law and which takes effect in 2025 is huge for the bottom 90% on Medicare. It's clear Trump will remove that cap the first chance he gets. It's also clear Trump will murder Social Security since he has defunded it before and ran in 2020 on making that defunding permanent. He'll still do it in 2025 if elected, but this time around he's smart enough to not run on 'Let's Kill Social Security!' Pretty obvious Trump is by far the worse option for the bottom 90% even if it is emotionally fulfilling to hate ######s and Mexicans for his nazi base.

Look at you, convincing yourself the blue sauce makes the shit taste good. That's why they call you shitlibs. As long as you keep eating it, they'll keep serving it to you.

[ChumpDumper]

Cope harder.

With what?

I already think Trump is going to win.

You're the one who "didn't care" about methodology until now.

Stay miserable.:tu

[ChumpDumper]

Look at you, convincing yourself the blue sauce makes the shit taste good. That's why they call you shitlibs. As long as you keep eating it, they'll keep serving it to you.

:lol another sore winner

[TSA]

With what?

I already think Trump is going to win.

You're the one who "didn't care" about methodology until now.

Stay miserable.:tu

Stay projecting :tu

[UNT Eagles 2016]

With what?

I already think Trump is going to win.

You're the one who "didn't care" about methodology until now.

Stay miserable.:tu

Whine hole does not.

[ChumpDumper]

Stay projecting :tu

Stay Q :tu

[Winehole23]

I was waiting for you to latch on this latest hopium poll :lmao

https://x.com/chriswithans/status/1849159231070691702

You cry about "red team polls" and then blindly repost garbage like this without looking at the sample.

https://x.com/DavidGiglioCA/status/1849158971409772636

https://x.com/MythicalExegete/status/1849163709895028927it's like you ignored my actual take

[Winehole23]

Whine hole does not.I honestly don't know who will win

[SnakeBoy]

:lol another sore winner

lol already giving in to hopelessness

It's not going to soften the blow if he wins. You'll still cry like a baby.

[baseline bum]

Look at you, convincing yourself the blue sauce makes the shit taste good. That's why they call you shitlibs. As long as you keep eating it, they'll keep serving it to you.

Snakes again with the content free posting we have come to expect.

[TSA]

lol already giving in to hopelessness

It's not going to soften the blow if he wins. You'll still cry like a baby.

It's his current coping method, pretend he doesn't care while constantly projecting.

In the same post he just told me he thinks Trump is going to win and then called me the miserable one.

https://libertymaniacs.com/cdn/shop/products/kiss-cut-stickers-5.5x5.5-default-63863ac66f59f_5000x.jpg?v=1669741259

[ChumpDumper]

lol already giving in to hopelessness

It's not going to soften the blow if he wins. You'll still cry like a baby.
Nah, Watergate and the Business Plot broke me if we're getting right down to it.

The authoritarian and racist streaks run very deep in this country and we're in another upswing for your team. It's telling that all you guys really care about is getting back at us for Black President, et.al. Seems pretty hopeless in itself.

[ChumpDumper]

It's his current coping method, pretend he doesn't care while constantly projecting.

In the same post he just told me he thinks Trump is going to win and then called me the miserable one.
I do care quite a bit. I just haven't figured out why people like you can't. Win or lose, you are and will be the same angry conspiracy monger you've been since Black President.

[CosmicCowboy]

I vote in Guadalupe County since moving to the lake and I have never seen early voting turnout like I saw today. It was an hour and a half just to get in the door.

[SnakeBoy]

Snakes again with the content free posting we have come to expect.

If Kamala wins are you immediately going back to crying about how the Dems only care about the ollyagawky or are you going to carry water for her for a while first?

[baseline bum]

If Kamala wins are you immediately going back to crying about how the Dems only care about the ollyagawky or are you going to carry water for her for a while first?

So butthurt I won't call Harris equally shitty as Trump

[Blake]

I vote in Guadalupe County since moving to the lake and I have never seen early voting turnout like I saw today. It was an hour and a half just to get in the door.

The trumpcruztards out there are crazy scared of boys getting transitioned against their will and then turned into an unstoppable girls volleyball force.

[Blake]

Look at you, convincing yourself the blue sauce makes the shit taste good. That's why they call you shitlibs. As long as you keep eating it, they'll keep serving it to you.

You don't even hold your nose when you swallow it though. It's like you enjoy the taste.

[CosmicCowboy]

Funny thing about voting today. I'm pretty sure the lady checking you in was a Trumper. I automatically handed her my voter registration and my drivers license. Both were current and the address matched. After she gave me both back and I put them away she tried to stump me with a "trick" question and asked me to tell her the street I lived on. I was like WTF? guess she didn't like my long hair LOL.

[Spurs Homer]

Funny thing about voting today. I'm pretty sure the lady checking you in was a Trumper. I automatically handed her my voter registration and my drivers license. Both were current and the address matched. After she gave me both back and I put them away she tried to stump me with a "trick" question and asked me to tell her the street I lived on. I was like WTF? guess she didn't like my long hair LOL.

of course you are a long-haired trumper


:lmao

[CosmicCowboy]

of course you are a long-haired trumper


:lmao

Meh, shoulder length. Didn't vote for President. They both suck. And don't give me the 'she doesn't suck as bad as he does". They both suck.

[baseline bum]

Meh, shoulder length. Didn't vote for President. They both suck. And don't give me the 'she doesn't suck as bad as he does". They both suck.

ROFL still a Trump defender to the end.

[baseline bum]

Last Democrat presidential candidate Cosmic would have voted for over Trump is probably Governor Wallace

[Blake]

Meh, shoulder length. Didn't vote for President. They both suck. And don't give me the 'she doesn't suck as bad as he does". They both suck.

Pretty amazing that just because she's a democrat that gives her equal suck power with a guy that thinks people's pets are getting eaten by illegals

[Spurs Homer]

Meh, shoulder length. Didn't vote for President. They both suck. And don't give me the 'she doesn't suck as bad as he does". They both suck.


Hope you are honest enough to admit this to your kids, grandkids, friends and other loved ones…

because you are a piece of shit who does not support democracy or the usa.

[baseline bum]

Pretty amazing that just because she's a democrat that gives her equal suck power with a guy that thinks people's pets are getting eaten by illegals

Well Trump incited a failed coup to install himself president after losing the 2020 election, but Kamala is a ###### woman who supports communist programs like Medicare and Social Security and didn't stay home and make babies, so same bullshit.

[CosmicCowboy]

Hope you are honest enough to admit this to your kids, grandkids, friends and other loved ones…

because you are a piece of shit who does not support democracy or the usa.

I have no problem admitting that election 2024 they both sucked.

[Spurs Homer]

I have no problem admitting that election 2024 they both sucked.

You know damn well that democracy is each and every one of ours responsibility.
You are not a stupid person but your refusing to vote against a dictator who has told you to your face that he would destroy our democracy

says a lot about your faithfulness to democracy and to the usa.

An american with integrity would do their part and at the very least - vote against the guy threatening our democracy-

not my democracy, not your democracy, not dems democracy or republicans democracy


Our democracy. You could not even do that one small thing. One necessary duty.

[baseline bum]

You know damn well that democracy is each and every one of ours responsibility.
You are not a stupid person but your refusing to vote against a dictator who has told you to your face that he would destroy our democracy

says a lot about your faithfulness to democracy and to the usa.

An american with integrity would do their part and at the very least - vote against the guy threatening our democracy-

not my democracy, not your democracy, not dems democracy or republicans democracy


Our democracy. You could not even do that one small thing. One necessary duty.

Cosmic doesn't care about any of that shit. You're talking to a guy who doesn't want to prosecute criminal conspiracies because muh shareholders would take a hit.

[Spurs Homer]

Cosmic doesn't care about any of that shit. You're talking to a guy who doesn't want to prosecute criminal conspiracies because muh shareholders would take a hit.

Im fully aware of his positions…

yet, if trump ends up back in power- people like cc will not escape the wrath of a dictator and rich people like cc will actually have more to lose than non-rich citizens because he has more money that a regime could go after and actually would feel like any wealth created belongs to them…

[Winehole23]

His attorney Jason Squires said Kelly was a retired aerospace engineer who at one time had top security clearance, had no criminal record and was not a flight risk.Man arrested in Arizona DNC office shootings had over 200 guns at his home | AP News (https://apnews.com/article/tempe-arizona-dnc-office-shootings-6f93528b571cd4c148dfd1612600854a)

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Meh, shoulder length. Didn't vote for President. They both suck. And don't give me the 'she doesn't suck as bad as he does". They both suck.

I'm a shoulder length too and I'm strongly considering voting this time around

for Trump and Mike Rogers for Senate, Paul Hudson for House

[z0sa]

The "Kamala is just as bad as Trump" people aren't only living in an alternate, non-factual reality - they're actively engaged in fascism at this point.

Harris sucks, I was one of the first to call it here. She still does.

You don't hear jack about how she, the sitting VP, won't transfer power peacefully or call the election a fraud and actively engage in attempting to undo it if she loses. Fucking hypocrites can't even acknowledge you lost in 2020.

Trump is literally trying to undo our "constitutional republic" (it's sad y'all are so in the weeds that calling our country a fucking democracy is a "libtard talking point").

There's hundreds of examples of him being not only unfit for office, but actively engaged in fascist rhetoric.

You'd have to be an uneducated dolt to deny it. Therefore, "muh taxes" or no-longer-low-key racism doesn't justify your bullshit takes. Neither does him "peacefully" (didn't happen, liar) transferring power in January '20. He didn't, and if it wasn't for Mike Pence and blind-sided Republicans, he wouldn't have. He's built a coalition of like-minded "conservatives" (cultists) who will be happy to contest the election, top to bottom, now.

The only thing likely saving this country from immediately descending into at least some limited forms of anarchy is Trump's age. If he was Hitler's age in '41, we'd just be fucked. That said, he's set the precedent and it's going nowhere.

[Ef-man]

2016 was a miss, 2020 badly underestimated Biden's level of support, and 2022 was another miss

seems foolish to rely overmuch on polls


Bad Polling is a Behavioral Problem - The Big Picture (https://ritholtz.com/2024/10/bad-polls/)

Interesting read on GOP influenced polls and setting up another "we were ahead" claim from the felon


With the United States' 2024 presidential election less than two weeks away, many of the national and battleground state polls highlighted on FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics continue to show a very close race.

National polls released on October 22 show Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leading GOP rival Donald Trump by 4 percent (Morning Consult) or 3 percent (Reuters/Ipsos and YouGov), but Trump has a 1 percent lead in a Rasmussen poll that came out the same day. Rasmussen, like Trafalgar and Quantus, is a right-wing pollster.

In an article published by The New Republic on October 23, journalists Greg Sargent and Michael Tomasky emphasize that GOP-aligned pollsters, according to critics, are making a concerted effort to create the impression of Trump enjoying momentum during the final days of his 2024 campaign.

Sargent and Tomasky point out that the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight and others deny that right-wing pollsters are significantly affecting their polling averages. But an important question to ask, according to Sargent and Tomasky, is: "Why include GOP-leaning polls in the averages in the first place?"

"Take Pennsylvania," the New Republic journalists note. "We examined all the polls from October that FiveThirtyEight includes in its averages. As of October 22, there have been 19 polls conducted wholly in the month of October so far. Eleven are either from right-leaning firms or from firms polling for right-wing news outlets such as the Daily Mail and The Telegraph…. We should emphasize: We don't know which firms are 'correct.'"

Sargent and Tomasky continue, "In any case, they're all within the margin of error. But the pattern here is clear: many right-leaning pollsters and their clients are producing polling that is narrowly more pro-Trump."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-flood-of-gop-aligned-polls (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-flood-of-gop-aligned-polls-are-pushing-election-forecasts-in-trump-s-favor/ar-AA1sMqF8)


Also
“Red Wave” Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages in Trump’s Favor?

Last month, a GOP-friendly polling firm presented itself, and its data, in a highly unusual way. Rather than maintain a nominally neutral public-facing profile, this pollster acted more like a cavalry brigade for Donald Trump’s campaign. And the firm did so explicitly, openly, and proudly.

It all went down in mid-September, at a time when the FiveThirtyEight polling averages showed the slightest of leads for Kamala Harris in North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump. Her edge was short-lived: The averages moved back to favoring Trump. And Quantus Insights, a GOP-friendly polling firm, took credit for this development. When a MAGA influencer celebrated the pro-Trump shift on X (formerly Twitter), Quantus’s account responded: “You’re welcome.”

The implication was clear. A Quantus poll had not only pushed the averages back to Trump; this was nakedly the whole point of releasing the poll in the first place.
https://newrepublic.com/gop-polls-rigging-averages (https://newrepublic.com/article/187425/gop-polls-rigging-averages-trump)

[ElNono]

Still far better than Trump.

And Shillary

[ElNono]

:lmao these posts


Harris is cooked. Trump, decisively. Wouldn’t be shocked if he wins the popular vote too.


There’s a good chance Trump wins the popular vote. What will be your excuse then?








Cope harder.

[CosmicCowboy]

Wow, lots of hysterical hyperbole about me not voting for Harris. I didn't like either one so I didn't vote for either one. As to y'alls futile protest votes for Harris, here is a little reality check. Trump is gonna win Texas whether you voted for Harris (a candidate you know is a shitty candidate) or not.

[TSA]

:lmao these posts

:lmao these posts


Sorry, but as things stand, Trump isn't winning PA, IMVHO, that's pure wishcasting. He won in '16 when he was a complete unknown, but 2020 is a far better indicator. I actually suspect he'll lose by a wider margin this time around.

And without Pennsylvania, his avenues to a win get much dimmer. He would need to win both AZ and GA



I give Dennison a 3% chance of winning PA. NV is not in play either, IMHO

https://x.com/KellyannePolls/status/1848774203295584589

I stand by my belief he's got a good chance to win the popular vote. I don't want an ELE bet with you because you're a good dude and I don't want to see you have to kill your account. How about a bet on popular vote and winner gets to choose what goes under your username?

[TSA]

Interesting read on GOP influenced polls and setting up another "we were ahead" claim from the felon


With the United States' 2024 presidential election less than two weeks away, many of the national and battleground state polls highlighted on FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics continue to show a very close race.

National polls released on October 22 show Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leading GOP rival Donald Trump by 4 percent (Morning Consult) or 3 percent (Reuters/Ipsos and YouGov), but Trump has a 1 percent lead in a Rasmussen poll that came out the same day. Rasmussen, like Trafalgar and Quantus, is a right-wing pollster.

In an article published by The New Republic on October 23, journalists Greg Sargent and Michael Tomasky emphasize that GOP-aligned pollsters, according to critics, are making a concerted effort to create the impression of Trump enjoying momentum during the final days of his 2024 campaign.

Sargent and Tomasky point out that the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight and others deny that right-wing pollsters are significantly affecting their polling averages. But an important question to ask, according to Sargent and Tomasky, is: "Why include GOP-leaning polls in the averages in the first place?"

"Take Pennsylvania," the New Republic journalists note. "We examined all the polls from October that FiveThirtyEight includes in its averages. As of October 22, there have been 19 polls conducted wholly in the month of October so far. Eleven are either from right-leaning firms or from firms polling for right-wing news outlets such as the Daily Mail and The Telegraph…. We should emphasize: We don't know which firms are 'correct.'"

Sargent and Tomasky continue, "In any case, they're all within the margin of error. But the pattern here is clear: many right-leaning pollsters and their clients are producing polling that is narrowly more pro-Trump."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-flood-of-gop-aligned-polls (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-flood-of-gop-aligned-polls-are-pushing-election-forecasts-in-trump-s-favor/ar-AA1sMqF8)


Also
“Red Wave” Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages in Trump’s Favor?

Last month, a GOP-friendly polling firm presented itself, and its data, in a highly unusual way. Rather than maintain a nominally neutral public-facing profile, this pollster acted more like a cavalry brigade for Donald Trump’s campaign. And the firm did so explicitly, openly, and proudly.

It all went down in mid-September, at a time when the FiveThirtyEight polling averages showed the slightest of leads for Kamala Harris in North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump. Her edge was short-lived: The averages moved back to favoring Trump. And Quantus Insights, a GOP-friendly polling firm, took credit for this development. When a MAGA influencer celebrated the pro-Trump shift on X (formerly Twitter), Quantus’s account responded: “You’re welcome.”

The implication was clear. A Quantus poll had not only pushed the averages back to Trump; this was nakedly the whole point of releasing the poll in the first place.
https://newrepublic.com/gop-polls-rigging-averages (https://newrepublic.com/article/187425/gop-polls-rigging-averages-trump)

Got any more RCP Battleground polls to post? :lmao

[TSA]

:lmao these posts

https://x.com/Mark_R_Mitchell/status/1849428604980969842

These are all the National Polls he's leading in. Not sure why you think my statements are lmao.

[TSA]

Sorry, but as things stand, Trump isn't winning PA, IMVHO, that's pure wishcasting. He won in '16 when he was a complete unknown, but 2020 is a far better indicator. I actually suspect he'll lose by a wider margin this time around.

https://x.com/TonerousHyus/status/1849446422757683709

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1849444779899130011



NV is not in play either, IMHO

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1849155259807179103

[TSA]

https://x.com/Mark_R_Mitchell/status/1849428604980969842

These are all the National Polls he's leading in. Not sure why you think my statements are lmao.

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1849427771568591287

[baseline bum]

Wow, lots of hysterical hyperbole about me not voting for Harris. I didn't like either one so I didn't vote for either one. As to y'alls futile protest votes for Harris, here is a little reality check. Trump is gonna win Texas whether you voted for Harris (a candidate you know is a shitty candidate) or not.

So who is the last Democrat presidential candidate you'd vote for over Trump? Wallace? LOL thinks Dems are equally as bad as a guy who incited a (thankfully failed) coup when he lost the election last time. If that's your take what the fuck did you even vote for since all state seats are safe GOP and Cuellar is really likely to win TX-28?

[ChumpDumper]

So who is the last Democrat presidential candidate you'd vote for over Trump? Wallace? LOL thinks Dems are equally as bad as a guy who incited a (thankfully failed) coup when he lost the election last time. If that's your take what the fuck did you even vote for since all state seats are safe GOP and Cuellar is really likely to win TX-28?

No guyz, this is just a normal election with two normal candidates from whom I will be choosing or not normally.

[SnakeBoy]

Wow, lots of hysterical hyperbole about me not voting for Harris. I didn't like either one so I didn't vote for either one. As to y'alls futile protest votes for Harris, here is a little reality check. Trump is gonna win Texas whether you voted for Harris (a candidate you know is a shitty candidate) or not.

They don't care about any of that. They're in full hive mind party loyalty mode. It's a commie thing I guess.

[Blake]

Wow, lots of hysterical hyperbole about me not voting for Harris. I didn't like either one so I didn't vote for either one. As to y'alls futile protest votes for Harris, here is a little reality check. Trump is gonna win Texas whether you voted for Harris (a candidate you know is a shitty candidate) or not.

Lol "hysterical hyperbole".

Good of you to not vote for Harris to further cement Trump's victory in Texas

[Blake]

They don't care about any of that. They're in full hive mind party loyalty mode. It's a commie thing I guess.

Could this be any richer

[Ef-man]

Got any more RCP Battleground polls to post? :lmao

As of October 22, there have been 19 polls conducted wholly in the month of October so far. Eleven are either from right-leaning firms or from firms polling for right-wing news outlets such as the Daily Mail and The Telegraph



Strange that in several other recent polls show Harris ahead:
-In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47%-44% advantage over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.

Harris is up by three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) with third-party candidates on the ballot and respondents are given the options of choosing “other,” “not sure” or “would not vote,” a one-point dip in her lead from the groups’ previous survey taken Oct. 12-15.

Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, but down from her 51%-45% lead in the two polls prior to last week.

-A Reuters/Ipsos poll, also released Tuesday, found Harris with a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but two points when using rounded figures, within the poll’s two-point margin of error); last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll also found her with a three-point lead, 45% to 42%.

-Harris is up one point, 45% to 44%, in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters taken Oct. 14-18 (margin of error 3.1), as Trump has narrowed the margins since the groups’ last poll taken in August that found Harris ahead by five points.

-Harris also led Trump by just one point—49%-48%—in Emerson College’s poll of likely voters published Friday, after Harris posted two-point leads in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.

[TSA]

You're sucking down the same "red poll flooding" that winehole is :rollin This theory has been debunked by owners of 538, RCP, and Nate Silver.


As of October 22, there have been 19 polls conducted wholly in the month of October so far. Eleven are either from right-leaning firms or from firms polling for right-wing news outlets such as the Daily Mail and The Telegraph

Strange that in several other recent polls show Harris ahead:
-In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47%-44% advantage over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.

Harris is up by three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) with third-party candidates on the ballot and respondents are given the options of choosing “other,” “not sure” or “would not vote,” a one-point dip in her lead from the groups’ previous survey taken Oct. 12-15.

Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, but down from her 51%-45% lead in the two polls prior to last week.

-A Reuters/Ipsos poll, also released Tuesday, found Harris with a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but two points when using rounded figures, within the poll’s two-point margin of error); last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll also found her with a three-point lead, 45% to 42%.

-Harris is up one point, 45% to 44%, in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters taken Oct. 14-18 (margin of error 3.1), as Trump has narrowed the margins since the groups’ last poll taken in August that found Harris ahead by five points.

-Harris also led Trump by just one point—49%-48%—in Emerson College’s poll of likely voters published Friday, after Harris posted two-point leads in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.

Look at the quality of the polls you're pointing to

https://atlas-intel.s3.amazonaws.com/content/654fa659-9daf-4537-a3fd-d6cc04705afb.png

Then look at how these polls are weighted. Hopium polls with D+5 when the actual electorate is closer to R+1 per Gallup.

I don't expect you to acknowledge or understand this because you've already shown you don't understand even basic polling averages.


Also from RCP - Polls from Battle Ground States favor Harris by +0.9%

Harris - 49.3%
Felon - 48.4%

Oof


RCP Battlegrounds Trump +1.2

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

stupid fuck :lmao


https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExM3VoOHA0bTB4djN4eGltbjZid2pqdzg 5bzRwdzJ2cHE5N25xMzVvayZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfY nlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/9QXZQJEtE7697Ul5NN/giphy.gif

[Ef-man]

You're sucking down the same "red poll flooding" that winehole is :rollin This theory has been debunked by owners of 538, RCP, and Nate Silver.



Look at the quality of the polls you're pointing to

https://atlas-intel.s3.amazonaws.com/content/654fa659-9daf-4537-a3fd-d6cc04705afb.png

Then look at how these polls are weighted. Hopium polls with D+5 when the actual electorate is closer to R+1 per Gallup.

I don't expect you to acknowledge or understand this because you've already shown you don't understand even basic polling averages.

19 polls conducted wholly in the month of October so far, eleven are either from right-leaning firms or from firms polling for right-wing news outlet
Trafalgar, AtlasIntel, Rasmussen :lmao

"Debunked" :lmao
https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExOTVkdXc5MXJrOHhtZ2UzeWgyMWlkNnE 1M3E2NDg4Z2RvaDJsdGhwMCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfY nlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/K8zzqui9viWT6/giphy.gif

[TSA]

As of October 22, there have been 19 polls conducted wholly in the month of October so far. Eleven are either from right-leaning firms or from firms polling for right-wing news outlets such as the Daily Mail and The Telegraph



Strange that in several other recent polls show Harris ahead:
-In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47%-44% advantage over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.

Harris is up by three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) with third-party candidates on the ballot and respondents are given the options of choosing “other,” “not sure” or “would not vote,” a one-point dip in her lead from the groups’ previous survey taken Oct. 12-15.

Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, but down from her 51%-45% lead in the two polls prior to last week.

-A Reuters/Ipsos poll, also released Tuesday, found Harris with a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but two points when using rounded figures, within the poll’s two-point margin of error); last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll also found her with a three-point lead, 45% to 42%.

-Harris is up one point, 45% to 44%, in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters taken Oct. 14-18 (margin of error 3.1), as Trump has narrowed the margins since the groups’ last poll taken in August that found Harris ahead by five points.

-Harris also led Trump by just one point—49%-48%—in Emerson College’s poll of likely voters published Friday, after Harris posted two-point leads in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.

The keepers of the averages insist that the impact is very minimal. Outfits like FiveThirtyEight; Split Ticket, the Times’ in-house polling tracker; and Nate Silver’s forecast all take methodological steps ostensibly to ensure that “garbage-in” polls don’t lead to “garbage-out” results. These include downgrading the “weight” of polls thought to be systematically biased so they have less influence on the averages than high-quality polls do. (FiveThirtyEight has detailed criteria for determining whether pollsters are high quality, including empirical accuracy and methodological transparency.) Another step is adjusting for a particular pollster’s “house effects” to downplay biases.

Is all this working? The keepers of the averages say yes. G. Elliott Morris, who runs FiveThirtyEight, recently calculated that if the averages only include high-quality polls—and not GOP-aligned ones—the results are in some states less than one-half a point different. The Times’ Cohn, who recently acknowledged that we’re seeing a “deluge of polls from Republican-leaning firms” in the averages, ran a similar calculation and found the results moving only imperceptibly.

We see no reason to doubt the accuracy of those calculations. If news consumers are going to trust the curation of high-quality polls that outlets like FiveThirtyEight conduct, then it’s also understandable if they give some weight to these reassurances. And given the larger context here—that is, how inexact a science even high-quality polling tends to be—one can see why aggregators would suggest that tiny shifts in the averages, even ones seeded by GOP polls, don’t warrant too much concern.

https://newrepublic.com/article/187425/gop-polls-rigging-averages-trump

[CosmicCowboy]

As of October 22, there have been 19 polls conducted wholly in the month of October so far. Eleven are either from right-leaning firms or from firms polling for right-wing news outlets such as the Daily Mail and The Telegraph



Strange that in several other recent polls show Harris ahead:
-In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47%-44% advantage over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.

Harris is up by three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) with third-party candidates on the ballot and respondents are given the options of choosing “other,” “not sure” or “would not vote,” a one-point dip in her lead from the groups’ previous survey taken Oct. 12-15.

Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, but down from her 51%-45% lead in the two polls prior to last week.

-A Reuters/Ipsos poll, also released Tuesday, found Harris with a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but two points when using rounded figures, within the poll’s two-point margin of error); last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll also found her with a three-point lead, 45% to 42%.

-Harris is up one point, 45% to 44%, in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters taken Oct. 14-18 (margin of error 3.1), as Trump has narrowed the margins since the groups’ last poll taken in August that found Harris ahead by five points.

-Harris also led Trump by just one point—49%-48%—in Emerson College’s poll of likely voters published Friday, after Harris posted two-point leads in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.

National polls don't mean shit. At last report all the swing states were statistical ties at 49 and 49.

[TSA]

19 polls conducted wholly in the month of October so far, eleven are either from right-leaning firms or from firms polling for right-wing news outlet
Trafalgar, AtlasIntel, Rasmussen :lmao

"Debunked" :lmao
https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExOTVkdXc5MXJrOHhtZ2UzeWgyMWlkNnE 1M3E2NDg4Z2RvaDJsdGhwMCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfY nlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/K8zzqui9viWT6/giphy.gifTrafalgar, AtlasIntel, and Rasmussen were all top 5 most accurate pollsters of 2020 you stupid fuck :lmao

And yes...debunked.

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExOTVkdXc5MXJrOHhtZ2UzeWgyMWlkNnE 1M3E2NDg4Z2RvaDJsdGhwMCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfY nlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/K8zzqui9viWT6/giphy.gif

The keepers of the averages insist that the impact is very minimal. Outfits like FiveThirtyEight; Split Ticket, the Times’ in-house polling tracker; and Nate Silver’s forecast all take methodological steps ostensibly to ensure that “garbage-in” polls don’t lead to “garbage-out” results. These include downgrading the “weight” of polls thought to be systematically biased so they have less influence on the averages than high-quality polls do. (FiveThirtyEight has detailed criteria for determining whether pollsters are high quality, including empirical accuracy and methodological transparency.) Another step is adjusting for a particular pollster’s “house effects” to downplay biases.

Is all this working? The keepers of the averages say yes. G. Elliott Morris, who runs FiveThirtyEight, recently calculated that if the averages only include high-quality polls—and not GOP-aligned ones—the results are in some states less than one-half a point different. The Times’ Cohn, who recently acknowledged that we’re seeing a “deluge of polls from Republican-leaning firms” in the averages, ran a similar calculation and found the results moving only imperceptibly.

We see no reason to doubt the accuracy of those calculations. If news consumers are going to trust the curation of high-quality polls that outlets like FiveThirtyEight conduct, then it’s also understandable if they give some weight to these reassurances. And given the larger context here—that is, how inexact a science even high-quality polling tends to be—one can see why aggregators would suggest that tiny shifts in the averages, even ones seeded by GOP polls, don’t warrant too much concern.

https://newrepublic.com/article/187425/gop-polls-rigging-averages-trump

[TSA]

National polls don't mean shit. At last report all the swing states were statistical ties at 49 and 49.

As of yesterday's RCP average Trump is leading all swing states.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

[TSA]

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExM3VoOHA0bTB4djN4eGltbjZid2pqdzg 5bzRwdzJ2cHE5N25xMzVvayZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfY nlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/9QXZQJEtE7697Ul5NN/giphy.gif

[SnakeBoy]

National polls don't mean shit. At last report all the swing states were statistical ties at 49 and 49.

This is what makes it strange that so many libs are giving up and so many repugs are spiking the ball. Gonna be some hilarious reactions no matter which way it goes.

[Ef-man]

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExM3VoOHA0bTB4djN4eGltbjZid2pqdzg 5bzRwdzJ2cHE5N25xMzVvayZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfY nlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/9QXZQJEtE7697Ul5NN/giphy.gif

QTSA: I don't care that Trafalgar, AtlasIntel, Rasmussen are right leaning firms sucking Orange dick in the golf club showers!!!! I am hear for the entertainment!!! :lol

[SnakeBoy]

QTSA: I don't care that Trafalgar, AtlasIntel, Rasmussen are right leaning firms sucking Orange dick in the golf club showers!!!! I am hear for the entertainment!!! :lol

Rasmussen is a dem leaning poll

[Winehole23]

Rasmussen is a dem leaning pollodd that they recently got caught consulting secretly with team Trump, what's up with that?

[Ef-man]

Rasmussen is a dem leaning poll

According to Nate Silver in 2010, automated polling methods like Rasmussen's have been found to be more favorable towards Republicans when compared to polls conducted with traditional methods involving live interviewers.

[TSA]

Rasmussen is a dem leaning poll

And the other two were #1 and #3 most accurate pollsters of 2020. He's just scrounging around grasping for hopium wherever he can find it. Poor fella has taken a beating the last few days in here and he's clearly wounded.

[SnakeBoy]

According to Nate Silver in 2010, automated polling methods like Rasmussen's have been found to be more favorable towards Republicans when compared to polls conducted with traditional methods involving live interviewers.

lol 2010

Here
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/rcp-pollster-scorecard/

You can focus on '22 if you like but most polls erred to the right then. I'm not arguing Trump has it in the bag...it's a coinflip imo.

[TSA]

lol 2010

Here
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/rcp-pollster-scorecard/

You can focus on '22 if you like but most polls erred to the right then. I'm not arguing Trump has it in the bag...it's a coinflip imo.


https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExM3VoOHA0bTB4djN4eGltbjZid2pqdzg 5bzRwdzJ2cHE5N25xMzVvayZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfY nlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/9QXZQJEtE7697Ul5NN/giphy.gif

[ChumpDumper]

This doesn't seem like a possible thing.

1848774659950424571

https://x.com/SwannMarcus89/status/1848774659950424571

[TSA]

Sorry, but as things stand, Trump isn't winning PA, IMVHO, that's pure wishcasting. He won in '16 when he was a complete unknown, but 2020 is a far better indicator. I actually suspect he'll lose by a wider margin this time around.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

[Ef-man]

lol 2010

Here
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/rcp-pollster-scorecard/

You can focus on '22 if you like but most polls erred to the right then. I'm not arguing Trump has it in the bag...it's a coinflip imo.

Agree it will be close in swing states.

But because of right leaning polls, I expect the felon will say, “I was ahead in polls; I lost because they cheated.”

[Ef-man]

This doesn't seem like a possible thing.

1848774659950424571

https://x.com/SwannMarcus89/status/1848774659950424571

muh Trafalgar!!!!

[TSA]

This doesn't seem like a possible thing.

1848774659950424571

https://x.com/SwannMarcus89/status/1848774659950424571

With other pollsters, the voter contact pool is often of a dynamic size and may change depending on the response patterns observed, as discussed in the example constructed at the beginning of the article. For Trafalgar, however, the voter contact pool is usually fixed, and they repeatedly ping voters from that specially-selected pool until they obtain the desired sample, and then divide the sample size by the contact pool size (75,000 in this case) to calculate response rate.

https://split-ticket.org/2022/09/19/whats-going-on-with-trafalgars-polls/

[TSA]

But because of right leaning polls

:lol muh right wing polls

The keepers of the averages insist that the impact is very minimal. Outfits like FiveThirtyEight; Split Ticket, the Times’ in-house polling tracker; and Nate Silver’s forecast all take methodological steps ostensibly to ensure that “garbage-in” polls don’t lead to “garbage-out” results. These include downgrading the “weight” of polls thought to be systematically biased so they have less influence on the averages than high-quality polls do. (FiveThirtyEight has detailed criteria for determining whether pollsters are high quality, including empirical accuracy and methodological transparency.) Another step is adjusting for a particular pollster’s “house effects” to downplay biases.

Is all this working? The keepers of the averages say yes. G. Elliott Morris, who runs FiveThirtyEight, recently calculated that if the averages only include high-quality polls—and not GOP-aligned ones—the results are in some states less than one-half a point different. The Times’ Cohn, who recently acknowledged that we’re seeing a “deluge of polls from Republican-leaning firms” in the averages, ran a similar calculation and found the results moving only imperceptibly.

We see no reason to doubt the accuracy of those calculations. If news consumers are going to trust the curation of high-quality polls that outlets like FiveThirtyEight conduct, then it’s also understandable if they give some weight to these reassurances. And given the larger context here—that is, how inexact a science even high-quality polling tends to be—one can see why aggregators would suggest that tiny shifts in the averages, even ones seeded by GOP polls, don’t warrant too much concern.

https://newrepublic.com/article/187425/gop-polls-rigging-averages-trump

[ChumpDumper]

With other pollsters, the voter contact pool is often of a dynamic size and may change depending on the response patterns observed, as discussed in the example constructed at the beginning of the article. For Trafalgar, however, the voter contact pool is usually fixed, and they repeatedly ping voters from that specially-selected pool until they obtain the desired sample, and then divide the sample size by the contact pool size (75,000 in this case) to calculate response rate.

https://split-ticket.org/2022/09/19/whats-going-on-with-trafalgars-polls/

September had 1090 respondents.

October had 1084 respondents.

How can the percentages be exactly the same?

Are they going to be exactly the same for every single poll then?

[TSA]

September had 1090 respondents.

October had 1084 respondents.

How can the percentages be exactly the same?

Are they going to be exactly the same for every single poll then?

You should reach out to them and ask them and then report back here with your findings.

[ChumpDumper]

You should reach out to them and ask them and then report back here with your findings.

No. I'm asking you, poll guy.

September had 1090 respondents.

October had 1084 respondents.

How can the percentages be exactly the same?

Are they going to be exactly the same for every single poll then?

I guess the answer is yes?

[z0sa]

Wow, lots of hysterical hyperbole about me not voting for Harris. I didn't like either one so I didn't vote for either one. As to y'alls futile protest votes for Harris, here is a little reality check. Trump is gonna win Texas whether you voted for Harris (a candidate you know is a shitty candidate) or not.

Is the sitting VP going to contest the election if she "loses" and calls fraud? Not certify the election? Yes or no?

[TSA]

No. I'm asking you, poll guy.

September had 1090 respondents.

October had 1084 respondents.

How can the percentages be exactly the same?

Are they going to be exactly the same for every single poll then?

I guess the answer is yes?

Don't know and don't care. They are accurate pollsters.

"Ultimately, Cahaly points to his results. “Remember the error rate”, he says, “and none of the other firms can compare”

[ChumpDumper]

Don't know and don't care. They are accurate pollsters.

"Ultimately, Cahaly points to his results. “Remember the error rate”, he says, “and none of the other firms can compare”Accurate for what -- their last poll taken right before the election?

[ChumpDumper]

Don't know and don't care. They are accurate pollsters.
Your polling results this year [2022] were a lot less accurate than they were in 2020. You consistently overestimated Republican support by quite a bit — an average of 7.5 percent in the Senate races. In Michigan, you had Tudor Dixon beating Gretchen Whitmer by one percent, and she ended up losing by 12. You had Washington senator Patty Murray up by one, and she ended up winning by 15. And so forth.

Oof.

[z0sa]

Should the VP assemble fake electors for Texas and call it a blue state? That'd be okay, Trump did it with impunity and shouldn't even be prosecuted, amiright, red team?

[ChumpDumper]

Should the VP assemble fake electors for Texas and call it a blue state? That'd be okay, Trump did it with impunity and shouldn't even be prosecuted, amiright, red team?

Biden needs to set them up as an official act.:tu

[TSA]

As of yesterday's RCP average Trump is leading all swing states.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

Add Decision Desk to Trump leading all swing states

https://x.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1849514377935819140

oof

[z0sa]

Add Decision Desk to Trump leading all swing states

https://x.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1849514377935819140

oof

No matter, Republicans are fraudsters and won't win any swing state in reality. Then, she'll refuse to certify the election like Mike Pence should have. Constitutional Republicanism in the most pure vein at work, brother.

[z0sa]

Biden needs to set them up as an official act.:tu

Absolutely. He's protecting our Constitutional Republic. There can be no act more official.

[Blake]

You should reach out to them and ask them and then report back here with your findings.

Right, you would be all over looking into it if it were the other way around, crying conspiracy. That's how you operate.

[TSA]

Right, you would be all over looking into it if it were the other way around, crying conspiracy. That's how you operate.

There is not point for me looking further in to it. It doesn't matter if Trafalgar leans right, every person that runs a reputable polling aggregate said "red poll flooding" is insignificant to their polling aggregates. I do look into left leaning polls that you all post and laugh at their absurd D+5 sampling but I don't call it a conspiracy, I simply laugh at the hopium they try and feed you guys.

[TSA]

https://x.com/politico/status/1849197721514618902

:cry muh Hitler :cry