The Post Injury Rotation + One (Relatively) Minor Move

[scott]

Been thinking about this some more, coming off 3 straight wins, a +.500 record past the 20% mark of the season, and the only team in the league with 3 wins versus the top 3 teams in the west. Do I think we are legit contenders in the West? No, but I do think we can be a playoff team *AND* doing so could be in the best interest of the franchise's long term goals.

First, let's start with some facts:

The current Starting Lineup remains the #1 5-man lineup in the entire league in terms of Net Rating (min. 75 minutes played), and by a significant margin. Not only is this lineup as good offensively as the other top lineups, but it's WAY better defensively.




GP
MIN
OFFRTG
DEFRTG
NETRTG
TS%
PIE


Paul-Castle-Champ-Barnes-Wemby
9
87
128.9
98.9
30.0
67.4
64.8


Horford-Holiday-Brown-Tatum-White
8
137
127.0
105.7
21.3
67.6
58.6


Jokic-Murray-Porter-Braun-Watson
4
80
135.2
114.7
20.4
67.7
59.7


Gorgon-Jokic-Murray-Porter-Braun
5
118
131.7
116.8
14.9
63.5
57.0




One main reason why this lineup works, in my opinion: Only one "non-shooter" in the lineup in Castle, who is improving rapidly in that area. Castle has had some rough shooting nights as of late, but even then I'd still say he is not a shooting liability, and he's hit some clutch 3s in both of the last two games.

We can all see with our own eyes the massive drop off when we go to our bench, which is not surprising since we don't have a lot of depth.

Yes, you might be able to upgrade the starting 5 further (and by proxy, improve the bench unit) by moving Vassell and Sochan into the starting 5, but I'd argue you gain more by leaving the starting 5 as is and inserting Devin and Jeremy into a 6th and 7th man role, at least until this starting 5 starts being less effective.

I propose moving to a rotation that looks like this:

Guard: CP3 and Castle starting in a primary 3 man rotation with Vassell. Tre picking up spot minutes as fatigue, foul trouble, injury, off-nights, etc. dictate
Forward: Champ and Barnes starting, with Keldon* and Jeremy in the rotation. Spot Mamu minutes as necessary.
Center: Wemby with Collins and Bassey in matchup dependent backup roles. Mamu spot minutes in small ball lineups.

The closing lineup could eventually evolve into a 3-guard lineup with CP3, Castle and Vassell with Sochan or Barnes at the 4 depending on circumstances.

You'll note I have an asterisks next to Keldon's name above... and there is a reason for that.

I'd be looking at moving Keldon to add a key piece for this playoff push. There is no strong reason to go out of our way to dump Collins, Branham or Wesley... they are fine, you just simply play others and each of those guys can actually be valuable contributors in limited roles and used in the right situations. Keldon, on the other hand, fills too important of a role and (IMO) is not up to the challenge.

I like Keldon. He brings energy and excitement... but he's too low IQ, too inconsistent, doesn't fit the defensive identity, and his 3pt shot cannot be relied upon. We should look to move him for a 3&D wing. That can be someone who plays the 3 or 4 - the nice thing about Sochan and Barnes is they provide that flexibility. Keldon is playing a 3/4 role anyway (one he really isn't that nicely suited for though).

Here are some ideas:

Idea #1

Spurs Trade Keldon Johnson and the CHA 2025 FRP (Lotto Protected) plus some SRPs to BKY for Dorian Finney-Smith

Ironically, DFS is actually in the #5 best Net Rating Lineup in the league after the 4 I posted above (Schroder-DFS-Claxton-Cam J-Cam T). You'd think eventually the Nets would realize they should be tanking though... but maybe not. If they are tanking, then Keldon would be a nice tank commander for them and they can add some more draft capital. DFS is shooting 41% from 3 this year on 5.6 attempts/game. He does have a player option for next year at $15.3MM, but he would save us about $3.5 on the cap next year and get us out of one more years of Keldon after the end of DFS's deal. Trade Machine says this trade works.

Idea #2

Spurs Trade Keldon Johnson and some SRPs to MIA for Duncan Robinson

I actually don't know why Miami would make this trade other than to simply shake things up. I'm happy to throw in the CHA pick, and I might even consider the CHI pick. Salaries are about equal, it shaves 1 year off our commitment to Keldon, but it injects some real shooting into our lineup and Robinson actually grades out a better defender in Crafted DPM compared to Keldon. This also works in the trade machine.

Idea #3

Spurs Trade Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins and some TBD draft capital to DEN for Michael Porter Jr.

I actually don't really like this trade (and it's bigger a trade than I really want to make), but MPJ is very good archetype fit. I don't really want to get rid of Collins like this, but he's required to make the deal work. We'd have to go out and get more C depth if we did this. I don't think Denver does this, because I think they actually like MPJ - but this does help break his bad contract into more easily manageable chunks and it gives them a little more depth. Don't think they'd want another, even worse, version of Westbrook on their team though.

There aren't a lot of options out there right now, but I think this is along the lines of what we should be doing.

I want to see if fighting to win a first round playoff series this year (even if we lose that series in 6 or 7). I think that experience and picking #20 will be more impactful than missing the play-in and getting pick #13.

I'm sure lots of folks will disagree... I look forward to hearing your takes.

[SpursBills]

Of all the players on this roster, Keldon Johnson has disappointed the most this season, by far. The man is at a -3.4 EPM (-1.3 O/-2.1 D, 11th percentile) and has gotten worse year after year. The season is still young yes, but he's in his 6th year and still does the exact same shit game after game. For reference, Malaki Branham is at -2.3, Blake Wesley -4.3 (!), and Zach Collins who the entire board (myself included) loves to shit on is at -1.0. I am concerned he will probably not be able to be a part of a defensive team moving forward.

[spurraider21]

I always had questions about Keldons long term standing here but i also didn’t think he’d regress like he has

[Dejounte]

Whoever they trade Keldon for will have to be convincingly good with no risk of being a bad fit on this team. The voices on the team have remarked how much of a difference Keldon makes in the locker room, that it’s going to be hard to easily give that up if he is truly the heart and soul of the team. It could very well have a ripple effect on the mood of the players, and how well they respond in the face of defeat without Keldon there to lift them up. Obviously, they’re all professionals so you’d hope they’d get over it— but it’s no guarantee, tbh. Of the proposals, MPJ is the only one that I feel wouldn’t hurt the morale of the team too much because he’d play well enough to make a positive impact.

[heyheymymy]

Fantastic data-supported analysis, scott.

Pretty realistic scenarios you proposed. Not sure I'd pull the trigger but Idea # 1 caught my attention at least.

I feel like the Nuggets need depth/help but not sure they'd do that deal.

I agree with you that Keldon seems to be the trade block feature right now though. Best trade value that's also least likely to be in the Spur's long term plans. I love KJ and think he could be useful to keep as well, but you gotta figure he's the piece you can best part with for a reasonable return. Zollins, Bran, those will require sweeteners possibly or yield much more neutral returns.

Be realistic about the return piece. It would be awesome to get our cherry on top and you start salivating seeing the Jrues Bridges and the OGs flying around. I'd love for the Spurs to pry a big fish too but even just a nice fit role player would tilt the scales tremendously in SAs favor.

Also wonder if the franchise maybe likes the chemistry right now and wouldn't want to change anything. Spurs are weird sometimes. But who is that Mills or Diaw type that comes in unexpectedly?

[scott]

Whoever they trade Keldon trade will have to be convincingly good with no risk of being a bad fit on this team. The voices on the team have remarked how much of a difference Keldon makes in the locker room, that it’s going to be hard to easily give that up if he is truly the heart and soul of the team. It could very well have a ripple effect on the mood of the players, and how well they respond in the face of defeat without Keldon there to lift them up. Obviously, they’re all professionals so you’d hope they’d get over it— but it’s no guarantee, tbh. Of the proposals, MPJ is the only one that I feel wouldn’t hurt the morale of the team too much because he’d play well enough to make a positive impact.

This is a great point.

[scott]

To further drive things home for me, during yesterday's game versus GSW never at any point did I think to myself "wow, we could really use what Keldon Johnson offers right now"

While Collins gave us literally nothing yesterday, I could at least say to myself "it would be helpful if Collins were actually contributing" - but with Keldon, just not having him available was the best possible outcome... and that says a lot.

[jesterbobman]

I've had similar thoughts on keeping the starting 5, with the debate being between building long term connections between main young pieces (Dev / Castle / Sochan / Wemby) and solid play this year, and I think Vassell and Sochan off the bench probably works best, given how well the starting 5 has performed. You can always mix and match a bit so you have chances for those guys to work together.

I think that gives a better bench unit, allows Sochan to be a bit more of a playmaker and the primary PNR threat, and you have a bit more size in the second unit, so you can play Collins up at the level / Bassey in drop. I think Keldon works better in that group as a SF, rather than as a PF next to Collins, where his lack of rim protection is a real issue as part of the two man pair.

Other option that'll be brought up is Cam Johnson, which is probably something like the DFS trade + additional assets (Chicago and Charlotte?). Same idea.

[RC_Drunkford]

I actually disagree and think they should absolutely try to play the CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby line up. Just to build cohesion for the future and see how it works. Vassell should be able to replace Champagnie pretty easily. If more spacing is required, Sochan has to go to the bench and Barnes slides into the starting line up. I get not breaking up a line up that works, but we have to think long term here.

CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby
Tre Jones/Champagnie/Keldon/Barnes/Bassey (one can dream he takes Zach Collins' spot)

Champangie/Barnes subbing in for Vassell/Sochan early would still allow you to play the best line up for some minutes til Wemby goes to the bench, if he can be out there longer than 6 minutes.

As for trades I was thinking about it as well, but don't really see anything that moves the needle much. Finney-Smith makes some sense, but he's 31 already. Cam Johnson's shooting and offball movement would be nice, but from what I've read he's not that good defensively either. He can basically only guard 3s and gets abused by smaller and bigger players, so I don't know how much he would help this team.

As we all know Markkanen would really be the one to take this team to another stratosphere.

[baseline bum]

I actually disagree and think they should absolutely try to play the CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby line up. Just to build cohesion for the future and see how it works. Vassell should be able to replace Champagnie pretty easily. If more spacing is required, Sochan has to go to the bench and Barnes slides into the starting line up. I get not breaking up a line up that works, but we have to think long term here.

CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby
Tre Jones/Champagnie/Keldon/Barnes/Bassey (one can dream he takes Zach Collins' spot)

Champangie/Barnes subbing in for Vassell/Sochan early would still allow you to play the best line up for some minutes til Wemby goes to the bench, if he can be out there longer than 6 minutes.

As for trades I was thinking about it as well, but don't really see anything that moves the needle much. Finney-Smith makes some sense, but he's 31 already. Cam Johnson's shooting and offball movement would be nice, but from what I've read he's not that good defensively either. He can basically only guard 3s and gets abused by smaller and bigger players, so I don't know how much he would help this team.

As we all know Markkanen would really be the one to take this team to another stratosphere.

Can't say I'd be excited about the dropoff in defense swapping Champagnie for Vassell in the starting lineup. Maybe if it gets Victor to quit jacking up hero-ball threes early in the game it could be worth it I guess.

[RC_Drunkford]

Can't say I'd be excited about the dropoff in defense swapping Champagnie for Vassell in the starting lineup. Maybe if it gets Victor to quit jacking up hero-ball threes early in the game it could be worth it I guess.

who says Vassell is a bad defender?

[Mugen]

who says Vassell is a bad defender?

He's been an average defender at best for a while now tbh.

[KingKev]

Keldon isn’t getting you much if anything in a trade.

[Mugen]

I actually disagree and think they should absolutely try to play the CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby line up. Just to build cohesion for the future and see how it works. Vassell should be able to replace Champagnie pretty easily. If more spacing is required, Sochan has to go to the bench and Barnes slides into the starting line up. I get not breaking up a line up that works, but we have to think long term here.

CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby
Tre Jones/Champagnie/Keldon/Barnes/Bassey (one can dream he takes Zach Collins' spot)

Champangie/Barnes subbing in for Vassell/Sochan early would still allow you to play the best line up for some minutes til Wemby goes to the bench, if he can be out there longer than 6 minutes.

As for trades I was thinking about it as well, but don't really see anything that moves the needle much. Finney-Smith makes some sense, but he's 31 already. Cam Johnson's shooting and offball movement would be nice, but from what I've read he's not that good defensively either. He can basically only guard 3s and gets abused by smaller and bigger players, so I don't know how much he would help this team.

As we all know Markkanen would really be the one to take this team to another stratosphere.

Pretty much agree with this. I think you have to start Vassell and Sochan if they're healthy and you're not managing their minutes.

And I think Castle has earned keeping his starting role.

[scott]

I actually disagree and think they should absolutely try to play the CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby line up. Just to build cohesion for the future and see how it works. Vassell should be able to replace Champagnie pretty easily. If more spacing is required, Sochan has to go to the bench and Barnes slides into the starting line up. I get not breaking up a line up that works, but we have to think long term here.

CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby
Tre Jones/Champagnie/Keldon/Barnes/Bassey (one can dream he takes Zach Collins' spot)

Champangie/Barnes subbing in for Vassell/Sochan early would still allow you to play the best line up for some minutes til Wemby goes to the bench, if he can be out there longer than 6 minutes.

As for trades I was thinking about it as well, but don't really see anything that moves the needle much. Finney-Smith makes some sense, but he's 31 already. Cam Johnson's shooting and offball movement would be nice, but from what I've read he's not that good defensively either. He can basically only guard 3s and gets abused by smaller and bigger players, so I don't know how much he would help this team.

As we all know Markkanen would really be the one to take this team to another stratosphere.

That lineup will still get plenty of run, it just won't be the starting 5 (though I'd envision it being the closing 5).

One of the premises I'm operating on is that our Starting 5 doesn't need to be any better. It's already 15 points better in Net Rating than the best 5-man lineup in the league last season (min 500 minutes played). If I drop that threshold down to 200 minutes played, it's still the second best 5-man lineup in the league (4 points behind the best lineup of Batum-Harris-Embiid-Melton-Maxey).

There just isn't much better this starting 5 can be... and Vassell would improve the bench more than Champ would.

Finney-Smith being 31 is actually a feature, not a bug. I'm not looking for a blockbuster trade or long-term player here. Just a savvy vet who's going to give us smart minutes while our Young Core is allowed to grow. It still lets us go after Markk in the offseason.

[DAF86]

I actually disagree and think they should absolutely try to play the CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby line up. Just to build cohesion for the future and see how it works. Vassell should be able to replace Champagnie pretty easily. If more spacing is required, Sochan has to go to the bench and Barnes slides into the starting line up. I get not breaking up a line up that works, but we have to think long term here.

CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby
Tre Jones/Champagnie/Keldon/Barnes/Bassey (one can dream he takes Zach Collins' spot)

Champangie/Barnes subbing in for Vassell/Sochan early would still allow you to play the best line up for some minutes til Wemby goes to the bench, if he can be out there longer than 6 minutes.

As for trades I was thinking about it as well, but don't really see anything that moves the needle much. Finney-Smith makes some sense, but he's 31 already. Cam Johnson's shooting and offball movement would be nice, but from what I've read he's not that good defensively either. He can basically only guard 3s and gets abused by smaller and bigger players, so I don't know how much he would help this team.

As we all know Markkanen would really be the one to take this team to another stratosphere.

I was halfway into writing this exact same post, untill I saw this.

CP3, Vassell, Castle, Sochan and Wemby is the way to go. If it doesn't work, then you can plan accordingly coming into next season. Let's figure out if our suppossed core pieces can co-exist with each other.

[exstatic]

That lineup will still get plenty of run, it just won't be the starting 5 (though I'd envision it being the closing 5).

One of the premises I'm operating on is that our Starting 5 doesn't need to be any better. It's already 15 points better in Net Rating than the best 5-man lineup in the league last season (min 500 minutes played). If I drop that threshold down to 200 minutes played, it's still the second best 5-man lineup in the league (4 points behind the best lineup of Batum-Harris-Embiid-Melton-Maxey).

There just isn't much better this starting 5 can be... and Vassell would improve the bench more than Champ would.

Finney-Smith being 31 is actually a feature, not a bug. I'm not looking for a blockbuster trade or long-term player here. Just a savvy vet who's going to give us smart minutes while our Young Core is allowed to grow. It still lets us go after Markk in the offseason.

Isn’t Batum on the clippers this year? And Tobias Harris on the Pistons?

[scott]

Isn’t Batum on the clippers this year? And Tobias Harris on the Pistons?

Highlighted the relevant qualifier for you:
"It's already 15 points better in Net Rating than the best 5-man lineup in the league last season (min 500 minutes played). If I drop that threshold down to 200 minutes played, it's still the second best 5-man lineup in the league (4 points behind the best lineup of Batum-Harris-Embiid-Melton-Maxey)."

[100%duncan]

A few points:

-Spurs should definitely push for the playoffs. A quarter of the season done so far, 1 east game played, and we're at 9-8. That's already a fringe playoff team. And yes, losing in the first round would be way better than having a higher pick even in a very good draft. This team and this core needs to be playing important games ASAP. Which is why I hope we can also get a good run in the in-season tournament, as these are pseudo-important games.

-I agree with the others. While you don't really want to fix what's not broken, I also think that it's more important to get your supposed core for the future much needed reps now. So I think the SL should be CP3, Castle, Dev, Sochan, Wemby, and the closing line-up would be almost identical just depending on some adjustments and match-ups. Although I see the reasoning of Scott, the bench would still be much better with Barnes and Champ anyway. Why not make your starting 5 even more dangerous, given that that's your core for the future.

-Re: keldon's absence. I kinda felt bad, I didnt even notice he wasn't playing until he was shown around the 3rd quarter. If as fans, we don't really notice his any positives from him, how much more the other FOs? While your packages seem somewhat realistic aside from MPJ, I think Keldon even has less value in the league now. His biggest value in a trade isn't anywhere near about his skills on the court (even for tanking teams tbh, you'd still want players that you can build upon) but rather his contract solely.

[BacktoBasics]

I’m don’t think we’ve seen Vassell and Sochan play together this season. The lineups are improving but I feel like we need to see what we’d look like healthy before fully determining what a Keldon trade should return.

[jesterbobman]

And, the other big spend on an older guy who might be washed is Keldon / BRanham / Wesley (makes money work) / Chicago pick +??? for Khris Middleton. No reason for the Bucks if he's not cooked, but if they want to fill the draft asset cupboard a little and have a chance to reset around Giannis its probably a Middleton trade.

[Dejounte]

And, the other big spend on an older guy who might be washed is Keldon / BRanham / Wesley (makes money work) / Chicago pick +??? for Khris Middleton. No reason for the Bucks if he's not cooked, but if they want to fill the draft asset cupboard a little and have a chance to reset around Giannis its probably a Middleton trade.

That would be a helluva veteran to learn from. It would be like the Rockets vets with Steven Adams, FVV, Dillon Brooks but way better. Our trio of vets will pave the way for the future.

[Guru of Nothing]

What are the range of outcomes with a lineup of Wemby, MPJ, Sochan, Castle, and Vassell (sorted by height)? Suddenly I have Bob McAdoo on the brain.

[ginobilized]

Nice work and mahalo!

This is a great problem to have. There's a chance that we might possess some more really strong lineups with Sochan and Vassell back.

My best (highly uneducated) guess is that it comes down to the Spurs fully playing their hand with what they've got. Sometimes it seems they subscribe to the Sunk Costs Fallacy.
If a move does come down the line, I like your ideas, especially DFS. To me the real find would be an upgrade of Collins that is on-par with the talent of the 2nd team, whoever that might be.

3 upgrades from last season and we are so much better. 3 more upgrades and continued improvement and we are contenders.

I've been a Castle fan from last season, but, his presence and skills have been beyond my expectations. 2nd night of a b2b, but, that was the best inaugural defense of Steph Curry anyone could hope for.

Hope is now in the room. That's my takeaway from this season thus far.

[CGD]

A few points:

-Spurs should definitely push for the playoffs. A quarter of the season done so far, 1 east game played, and we're at 9-8. That's already a fringe playoff team. And yes, losing in the first round would be way better than having a higher pick even in a very good draft. This team and this core needs to be playing important games ASAP. Which is why I hope we can also get a good run in the in-season tournament, as these are pseudo-important games.

-I agree with the others. While you don't really want to fix what's not broken, I also think that it's more important to get your supposed core for the future much needed reps now. So I think the SL should be CP3, Castle, Dev, Sochan, Wemby, and the closing line-up would be almost identical just depending on some adjustments and match-ups. Although I see the reasoning of Scott, the bench would still be much better with Barnes and Champ anyway. Why not make your starting 5 even more dangerous, given that that's your core for the future.

-Re: keldon's absence. I kinda felt bad, I didnt even notice he wasn't playing until he was shown around the 3rd quarter. If as fans, we don't really notice his any positives from him, how much more the other FOs? While your packages seem somewhat realistic aside from MPJ, I think Keldon even has less value in the league now. His biggest value in a trade isn't anywhere near about his skills on the court (even for tanking teams tbh, you'd still want players that you can build upon) but rather his contract solely.

Good take

[KobesAchilles]

I mean our bench unit is set with KJ, Vassell, Collins, Sochan, and Wesley. You could switch out Bassey for Collins. Nobody on the Spurs really have cache to demand to be a starter. Even our highest paid player in Vassell is only like 27 million and him going to the bench wouldn’t be breaking the bank. That unit should provide a spark and be able to maintain a lead when we sub out Wemby. And they can just insert themselves as a starter is any injury occurs

[exstatic]

And, the other big spend on an older guy who might be washed is Keldon / BRanham / Wesley (makes money work) / Chicago pick +??? for Khris Middleton. No reason for the Bucks if he's not cooked, but if they want to fill the draft asset cupboard a little and have a chance to reset around Giannis its probably a Middleton trade.

That Chicago pick could be as high as #9. Don’t want to give that for washed/injured Middleton.

[Mr. Body]

Steph and Vic are both 20. Other players are also very young. No sense in spending on a player who won't be around. They already got Paul and Barnes just for salary and that's working great.

[cutewizard]

Guys, we all know the Spurs FO are kinda conservative

So I think they will wait until after the 2025 draft.......

[Spurs Homer]

hahahahahahahahaha!

you guys doing it again...throwing out keldons name and still under the false illusion that vassell is NOT garbage...


hahahahahahahahahaha!

[T Park]

Cam Johnson is the guy to get. Won’t cost much. Fills multiple needs. Good character guy.

He’s who you start. Let Champ come off the bench where he’s the best fit.

Cam Johnson should’ve been acquired yesterday.

[scott]

I like Cam as a player, but he won’t come cheap.

[RC_Drunkford]

He's been an average defender at best for a while now tbh.

average is not bad. I wouldn't say Champagnie is miles better on D than Devin. Devin is a good team defender, he's just not a point of attack defender. With Castle and Sochan in the line up he can just guard the corner 3 guy and collapse when neccessary. He will need reps to get there, since he hasn't played much with this new defensive scheme we are running. Of course it makes sense to let him play the Manu role, but I'd start him and see how it works first.

[rankingtear]

The old reliable trade package of Zollins/Keldon and CHA 1st.

[Ice009]

Cam Johnson is the guy to get. Won’t cost much. Fills multiple needs. Good character guy.

He’s who you start. Let Champ come off the bench where he’s the best fit.

Cam Johnson should’ve been acquired yesterday.

Cam sounds good, but I haven't really watched him play much. I also don't like what RC_Drunkford said about his defense not being good. Not sure I like the sounds of that. Sounds like he'd fit in offensively, but not sure defensively. I guess it would depend on how much he costs.

Really good thread btw. I'm starting to feel some real excitement with the team so far this season (it's early, hopefully they continue it on and play even better). As for the starting lineups, I really am 50/50 on leaving it how it is, but also would like to see how it goes with that was projected to be the starting lineup. I guess best way to go it keep the current lineup and see how long that goes really well. Stephon has to continue to start, though, IMO regardless on any other lineup changes.

[KingKev]

The old reliable trade package of Zollins/Keldon and CHA 1st.

Could be building blocks for a bid deal I swear :lol

[LeBowen]

I'm putting players who are currently healthy as nominal starters, doesn't mean anything.

CP3/Tre - mutually exclusive at point.
Castle/Devin - can play together, one slides to SF.
Champagnie/Keldon - completely different players, Keldon shouldn't be playing in lineups that lack spacing.
Barnes/Jeremy - obviously not the same role, I'd say that Jeremy and Castle were intended to be mutually exclusive due to spacing, but with Castle's improvements, I honestly have no idea how it plays out.
Wemby/Collins - We all want Bassey, coaching staff doesn't. At least not yet.

Bassey, Branham and Wesley as third stringers.

Castle simply has to start because he's excedeed every possible expectation and we can only benefit long term from his development.
Devin probably starts ahead of Champagnie when he's at peak conditioning, but that won't happen for a while.
We can't really bench Champagnie for Jeremy because spacing would take too big of a hit. I'd say the same applies to Barnes. I expect Jeremy to come off the bench.
Collins has to go, we want Bassey!

I'd say we have a lot of solid role players, but not enough high end players. Not that big of an issue this season, I expect a lot of different rotations depending on matchups and in-game performance.
Youngest team in the league with deep rotation can run most veteran teams off the floor on any given night.
I don't expect the play-offs without a trade or two, even though things look good so far, especially with all the injuries.

I'm also along the lines of Scott's ideas. If we're to actually compete, get another shooter with size, then we can talk.
MPJ is probably staying until the end of the season because he's been good as of late and Nuggets are somewhat back on track.

Another thing I'd consider is getting Vucevic. He's not a great defender, but he'd be the best rebounder on the team and he's shooting 46% from 3pt on 4.4 attempts. If he'd be willing to come off the bench, that is.
But then again, Bulls would probably ask to get their pick back.

NOLA's season seems to be done and they probably realize they're better off just tanking and getting another high pick.
Collins+Keldon+FRP for Ingram is still interesting to me. If we can get rid of two bad contracts for one FRP and have a trial period for Ingram I'd consider it a win. NOLA can't really get a FRP anywhere else.
They have 0 centers available so even Collins would be useful and Keldon can be kept as a locker room leading tank commander.
I still there's a good player in there if we're talking Ingram and who knows, if he does well maybe he accept a team-friendly extension in line what he's getting now.
Don't forget that we're talking about a 23/6/6 forward who can be solid defensively when engaged.

[exstatic]

I'm putting players who are currently healthy as nominal starters, doesn't mean anything.

CP3/Tre - mutually exclusive at point.
Castle/Devin - can play together, one slides to SF.
Champagnie/Keldon - completely different players, Keldon shouldn't be playing in lineups that lack spacing.
Barnes/Jeremy - obviously not the same role, I'd say that Jeremy and Castle were intended to be mutually exclusive due to spacing, but with Castle's improvements, I honestly have no idea how it plays out.
Wemby/Collins - We all want Bassey, coaching staff doesn't. At least not yet.

Bassey, Branham and Wesley as third stringers.

Castle simply has to start because he's excedeed every possible expectation and we can only benefit long term from his development.
Devin probably starts ahead of Champagnie when he's at peak conditioning, but that won't happen for a while.
We can't really bench Champagnie for Jeremy because spacing would take too big of a hit. I'd say the same applies to Barnes. I expect Jeremy to come off the bench.
Collins has to go, we want Bassey!

I'd say we have a lot of solid role players, but not enough high end players. Not that big of an issue this season, I expect a lot of different rotations depending on matchups and in-game performance.
Youngest team in the league with deep rotation can run most veteran teams off the floor on any given night.
I don't expect the play-offs without a trade or two, even though things look good so far, especially with all the injuries.

I'm also along the lines of Scott's ideas. If we're to actually compete, get another shooter with size, then we can talk.
MPJ is probably staying until the end of the season because he's been good as of late and Nuggets are somewhat back on track.

Another thing I'd consider is getting Vucevic. He's not a great defender, but he'd be the best rebounder on the team and he's shooting 46% from 3pt on 4.4 attempts. If he'd be willing to come off the bench, that is.
But then again, Bulls would probably ask to get their pick back.

NOLA's season seems to be done and they probably realize they're better off just tanking and getting another high pick.
Collins+Keldon+FRP for Ingram is still interesting to me. If we can get rid of two bad contracts for one FRP and have a trial period for Ingram I'd consider it a win. NOLA can't really get a FRP anywhere else.
They have 0 centers available so even Collins would be useful and Keldon can be kept as a locker room leading tank commander.
I still there's a good player in there if we're talking Ingram and who knows, if he does well maybe he accept a team-friendly extension in line what he's getting now.
Don't forget that we're talking about a 23/6/6 forward who can be solid defensively when engaged.

He’s wanting the full boat. That’s why N.O. Is trying to trade him. He probably won’t get it, but whoever is left holding that contract likely sees him walk. Players get butthurt when they don’t get what they want. Just look at Klay Thompson. He took less $$ over more years from Dallas when GS wouldn’t meet his number and years.

[LeBowen]

He’s wanting the full boat. That’s why N.O. Is trying to trade him. He probably won’t get it, but whoever is left holding that contract likely sees him walk. Players get butthurt when they don’t get what they want. Just look at Klay Thompson. He took less $$ over more years from Dallas when GS wouldn’t meet his number and years.

I'd also be asking for a full max if I was staying and NOLA and knowing I'll never actually compete.
Players joining current Spurs would see greatness in the making and if they got the right character, they'd definitely want to be a part of that.
If he doesn't, then we got rid of Collins and Keldon for just one bad FRP and we'd have less than $100M on the books next summer, with cap going all the way up to $155M and just Tre to potentially re-sign.

I can't overstate how much I want to get rid of those two before the next season starts. :lol

[Spursfanfromafar]

If the Spurs are going to trade Keldon.. they should not just look for a 3 and D player but someone who can drive and kick/ score at the rim and can draw fouls. Cameron Johnson can possibly do that and if the Nets are willing to trade. Otherwise just a plain vanilla 3 and D player is redundant..that role is performed by Champagnie.

[Vince Carter's ankle]

I mean our bench unit is set with KJ, Vassell, Collins, Sochan, and Wesley. You could switch out Bassey for Collins. Nobody on the Spurs really have cache to demand to be a starter. Even our highest paid player in Vassell is only like 27 million and him going to the bench wouldn’t be breaking the bank. That unit should provide a spark and be able to maintain a lead when we sub out Wemby. And they can just insert themselves as a starter is any injury occurs
your hate on Sochan won't make him a bench player
don't dream about it

[LeBowen]

If the Spurs are going to trade Keldon.. they should not just look for a 3 and D player but someone who can drive and kick/ score at the rim and can draw fouls. Cameron Johnson can possibly do that and if the Nets are willing to trade. Otherwise just a plain vanilla 3 and D player is redundant..that role is performed by Champagnie.

We need more than just one 3-D player, imo.

Looking into the future, these are the long term pieces:

Castle/? (Tre probably gets another deal)
Devin/?
?/Champagnie
Jeremy/Barnes (I think he'll stay for another contract to be the veteran and team leader)
Wemby/?

If Tre stays, Spurs will probably get another combo guard to replace CP3 and then we'll need one legit wing. But that wing has to be a shooter.
Castle already looks like he'll be an expert at drawing fouls, Jeremy is always going to be an inside presence and there's Wemby.
If we had one more legit shooter who's not a bad defender in Keldon's place, we'd make the playoffs this season. And a legit backup big.

[Strategic]

I’m gonna have to wait until everybody on the roster has had some real burn before I can go there. By mid season one or two of the current guys should start falling through the cracks. The Spurs are bouncing off an off season where they picked up 3 really solid dudes. These additions have changed the look and hence the team’s arc. The needs are currently fluid. I don’t think either of the guys currently in street clothes with automatically be plugged into the starting 5.

[CorrectCrusader]

DFS would be a perfect fit on the current roster. thumbs up that trade

[RC_Drunkford]

NOLA's season seems to be done and they probably realize they're better off just tanking and getting another high pick.
Collins+Keldon+FRP for Ingram is still interesting to me. If we can get rid of two bad contracts for one FRP and have a trial period for Ingram I'd consider it a win. NOLA can't really get a FRP anywhere else.
They have 0 centers available so even Collins would be useful and Keldon can be kept as a locker room leading tank commander.
I still there's a good player in there if we're talking Ingram and who knows, if he does well maybe he accept a team-friendly extension in line what he's getting now.
Don't forget that we're talking about a 23/6/6 forward who can be solid defensively when engaged.

I'm not sure about the fit here tbh. Ingram shoots way better off the dribble than on catch and shoots. We don't really need another player who likes to dance with the ball in his hands on the perimeter, Wemby and Devin already do that type of stuff. He'd also never accept a 6th man role. Someone who moves more off the ball seems to be suited much better as we see with Barnes and his cuts for example.

[Duncan2177]

Been thinking about this some more, coming off 3 straight wins, a +.500 record past the 20% mark of the season, and the only team in the league with 3 wins versus the top 3 teams in the west. Do I think we are legit contenders in the West? No, but I do think we can be a playoff team *AND* doing so could be in the best interest of the franchise's long term goals.

First, let's start with some facts:

The current Starting Lineup remains the #1 5-man lineup in the entire league in terms of Net Rating (min. 75 minutes played), and by a significant margin. Not only is this lineup as good offensively as the other top lineups, but it's WAY better defensively.




GP
MIN
OFFRTG
DEFRTG
NETRTG
TS%
PIE


Paul-Castle-Champ-Barnes-Wemby
9
87
128.9
98.9
30.0
67.4
64.8


Horford-Holiday-Brown-Tatum-White
8
137
127.0
105.7
21.3
67.6
58.6


Jokic-Murray-Porter-Braun-Watson
4
80
135.2
114.7
20.4
67.7
59.7


Gorgon-Jokic-Murray-Porter-Braun
5
118
131.7
116.8
14.9
63.5
57.0




One main reason why this lineup works, in my opinion: Only one "non-shooter" in the lineup in Castle, who is improving rapidly in that area. Castle has had some rough shooting nights as of late, but even then I'd still say he is not a shooting liability, and he's hit some clutch 3s in both of the last two games.

We can all see with our own eyes the massive drop off when we go to our bench, which is not surprising since we don't have a lot of depth.

Yes, you might be able to upgrade the starting 5 further (and by proxy, improve the bench unit) by moving Vassell and Sochan into the starting 5, but I'd argue you gain more by leaving the starting 5 as is and inserting Devin and Jeremy into a 6th and 7th man role, at least until this starting 5 starts being less effective.

I propose moving to a rotation that looks like this:

Guard: CP3 and Castle starting in a primary 3 man rotation with Vassell. Tre picking up spot minutes as fatigue, foul trouble, injury, off-nights, etc. dictate
Forward: Champ and Barnes starting, with Keldon* and Jeremy in the rotation. Spot Mamu minutes as necessary.
Center: Wemby with Collins and Bassey in matchup dependent backup roles. Mamu spot minutes in small ball lineups.

The closing lineup could eventually evolve into a 3-guard lineup with CP3, Castle and Vassell with Sochan or Barnes at the 4 depending on circumstances.

You'll note I have an asterisks next to Keldon's name above... and there is a reason for that.

I'd be looking at moving Keldon to add a key piece for this playoff push. There is no strong reason to go out of our way to dump Collins, Branham or Wesley... they are fine, you just simply play others and each of those guys can actually be valuable contributors in limited roles and used in the right situations. Keldon, on the other hand, fills too important of a role and (IMO) is not up to the challenge.

I like Keldon. He brings energy and excitement... but he's too low IQ, too inconsistent, doesn't fit the defensive identity, and his 3pt shot cannot be relied upon. We should look to move him for a 3&D wing. That can be someone who plays the 3 or 4 - the nice thing about Sochan and Barnes is they provide that flexibility. Keldon is playing a 3/4 role anyway (one he really isn't that nicely suited for though).

Here are some ideas:

Idea #1

Spurs Trade Keldon Johnson and the CHA 2025 FRP (Lotto Protected) plus some SRPs to BKY for Dorian Finney-Smith

Ironically, DFS is actually in the #5 best Net Rating Lineup in the league after the 4 I posted above (Schroder-DFS-Claxton-Cam J-Cam T). You'd think eventually the Nets would realize they should be tanking though... but maybe not. If they are tanking, then Keldon would be a nice tank commander for them and they can add some more draft capital. DFS is shooting 41% from 3 this year on 5.6 attempts/game. He does have a player option for next year at $15.3MM, but he would save us about $3.5 on the cap next year and get us out of one more years of Keldon after the end of DFS's deal. Trade Machine says this trade works.

Idea #2

Spurs Trade Keldon Johnson and some SRPs to MIA for Duncan Robinson

I actually don't know why Miami would make this trade other than to simply shake things up. I'm happy to throw in the CHA pick, and I might even consider the CHI pick. Salaries are about equal, it shaves 1 year off our commitment to Keldon, but it injects some real shooting into our lineup and Robinson actually grades out a better defender in Crafted DPM compared to Keldon. This also works in the trade machine.

Idea #3

Spurs Trade Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins and some TBD draft capital to DEN for Michael Porter Jr.

I actually don't really like this trade (and it's bigger a trade than I really want to make), but MPJ is very good archetype fit. I don't really want to get rid of Collins like this, but he's required to make the deal work. We'd have to go out and get more C depth if we did this. I don't think Denver does this, because I think they actually like MPJ - but this does help break his bad contract into more easily manageable chunks and it gives them a little more depth. Don't think they'd want another, even worse, version of Westbrook on their team though.

There aren't a lot of options out there right now, but I think this is along the lines of what we should be doing.

I want to see if fighting to win a first round playoff series this year (even if we lose that series in 6 or 7). I think that experience and picking #20 will be more impactful than missing the play-in and getting pick #13.

I'm sure lots of folks will disagree... I look forward to hearing your takes.

Idea #3 is a no brainer. :lol

[spurraider21]

i dont care for the Finney-Smith one.

Robinson gives us a legitimate sniper. i love how much more well rounded Champagnie has become, but the sharpshooting hasnt gotten to the elite level yet. like it or not, over the years there were plenty of games where McDermott gave us the jolt we needed to stay in a game. robinson can do that while being a less shit defender. he's still bad, but at least having played for Spo he understands general concepts of rotations and team defense. robinson has a 7 foot wingspan as well, so he's not quite as physically limited as some might think, even if he's not a great lateral mover. that's a move i'd like, but yeah, not sure why miami would want keldon.

MPJ also makes sense even though he's not a very multi-dimensional player. he might be the best floor spacer in the league other than curry, because of his quick release, movement shooting, and his length for the position. he's overpaid on his contract for sure, but as it stands we're already on the hook for a combined 35.5 mil to Keldon and Zach Collins for the 25-26 season. MPJ goes just a year beyond that. he's also still just 26. so yeah, i dont love his contract in a vacuum, but considering the contracts he'd be replacing, its not really a negative. but i also think theres no shot denver makes that move.

Cam Johnson is the one that is achievable and on a team that will be motivated to sell. just comes down to what compensation they want.

[KobesAchilles]

your hate on Sochan won't make him a bench player
don't dream about it
There’s no hate. I like him as a player. But I’d rather Barnes start over him this year.

[exstatic]

Idea #3 is a no brainer. :lol

If I’m trading for someone making $40M+, It’s going to be Markannen. Porter just sits in the corner on offense, and is pretty much a non factor on defense. In addition, he’s already had two back surgeries.

[LeBowen]

If I’m trading for someone making $40M+, It’s going to be Markannen. Porter just sits in the corner on offense, and is pretty much a non factor on defense. In addition, he’s already had two back surgeries.

Porter's contract ends before Wemby's extension kicks in.
Porter missed just 1 out of previous 109 regular season games.
He's a 6'10 career 41% 3pt shooter on really high volume for someone his size.
Not a great defender, but solid with a good setup around him and a very good rebounder, better than any of our wings.

He's averaging 18/7/3 on 50/40/80 this season, Nuggets aren't trading him for a couple of scrubs.
Idk how can someone averaging 18ppg on such shooting splits be a non-factor.

[lefty20]

I don't think there is any way the Nuggets are trading away MPJ with Murray struggling the way he is. MPJ is literally their 2nd most reliable scorer.

[spurraider21]

I don't think there is any way the Nuggets are trading away MPJ with Murray struggling the way he is. MPJ is literally their 2nd most reliable scorer.
yeah and on a team suffering from spacing issues, he is their spacing. i really dont see it.

[mystargtr34]

The old reliable trade package of Zollins/Keldon and CHA 1st.

I’m saving that for Giannis if I’m the Spurs

[100%duncan]

Are people here really saying no to MPJ? Ya'll are crazy tbh. I didn't entertain it because Denver would NEVER do it. BUT if they do pick up that phone on that offer, the call shouldn't even last 10 seconds :lol