Spurs at All-Star Break. Advanced Statistics (EPM)

[Spursfanfromafar]

https://imgur.com/a/f31LGdjI scraped EPM data for all players as of Feb 13, 2025. And here's how this looks like (the full unfiltered version) -

https://i.imgur.com/l0OXrsK.png
Our guy, Wemby will be among the most-rounded two-players list, a huge net plus in both Offense and Defense.

Here's a filtered image for the Spurs alone -

https://i.imgur.com/DY9pF6V.png
Some points based on the above -

1. Keldon & Bassey are the worst players in the team in terms of being high net minuses in both offense and defense.
2. Jordan MacLaughlin hasn't played at all for the Spurs and so we can give him a pass. But other large net minuses include Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie and Malaki Branham.
3. Castle and Sochan have contributed a lot on defense and are net positives there. Their offense is still below par but they aren't far away from being plus two-way players. Castle, especially has been trending upwards and rightwards on both defense and offense.
4. Paul, Fox and Mamu are net positives on offense and aren't far away from being positives on defense. Fox in particular, is almost there.
5. Barnes is good on offense but terrible on defense (worse than Keldon!). In sum, it makes little sense in starting four net negatives in Fox, Paul, Barnes and Vassell alongwise Wemby. At least one of Castle or Sochan would be a huge boost to the defense if either of them start alongside Wemby.

Here are the images for the main contenders to show what we lack and how far the Spurs are from contending.

1. OKC Thunder - (very few net minus defenders).

https://i.imgur.com/STK7EmI.png

[BatManu20]

Get Keldon off this team tbh.

[Spursfanfromafar]

2. Cavaliers - (Very few net minus on offense) and a good set of net plus on offense and defense.

https://i.imgur.com/bvkAmwP.png

3. Celtics - (Very solid defensively) and a lot of two-way players-

https://i.imgur.com/fkLW1lA.png
4. Grizzlies - (Again a lot of solid two-way players)

https://i.imgur.com/FacxghR.png

5. Nuggets - (One mega superstar plus a bunch of good defenders and good offensive players) -

https://i.imgur.com/5Tg1J3n.png

Let me know if you guys want more. I have this as an interactive only on my local machine.

[cutewizard]

You could make a journal article on this good Sir

And publish in peer reviewed one

[Extra Stout]

This jibes with what I’ve seen across a variety of advanced metrics.

Wemby is elite. Fox is near-elite though he treads water on defense. Paul for all the crap he gets on here is still productive. Castle is rising quickly. Barnes is a bad defender but still useful. Sochan struggles offensively but is still useful. Champagnie is a cheap end-of-bench piece.

The rest of the roster is utter trash. Vassell and Johnson are especially bad because they have relatively high salaries and are seen as part of the core despite being huge negatives. They are huge negatives in part because of their attitude and approach to the game, which infects other players, even Wemby.

You are what your record says you are, and the Spurs are no exception.

Only some of the bad defense is lack of talent. Much of it is poor coaching and dysfunctional culture.

[Leetonidas]

OP did more analysis in this thread than our FO does, guarantee it :lol

I'm half kidding but one has to wonder. Do we not have staff that look at these models? If so how can they justify starting and playing 4 net negative players so many minutes? Either they are mismanaged and don't look at the data or they are willfully ignoring it

[rankingtear]

Young core is on schedule. 21 years old and younger. Just a jumpshot away.

[rankingtear]

OP did more analysis in this thread than our FO does, guarantee it :lol

I'm half kidding but one has to wonder. Do we not have staff that look at these models? If so how can they justify starting and playing 4 net negative players so many minutes? Either they are mismanaged and don't look at the data or they are willfully ignoring it

Spacing.

[Leetonidas]

Spacing.

Spacing means jack shit when you're getting demolished on defense and crushed on the glass...

[rankingtear]

Spacing means jack shit when you're getting demolished on defense and crushed on the glass...

ok...

[Mal]

Good stuff, I need start looking closer at those. Many things matches the eye test.

[RC_Drunkford]

OP did more analysis in this thread than our FO does, guarantee it :lol

I'm half kidding but one has to wonder. Do we not have staff that look at these models? If so how can they justify starting and playing 4 net negative players so many minutes? Either they are mismanaged and don't look at the data or they are willfully ignoring it

I have asked myself this for a long time. But then again this franchise is lead by a 76-year old, so that should answer the question.

[scott]

Great stuff, thanks OP! Do you have a Dunksandthrees subscription? How do you like it?

Also, is this Estimated EPM or Actual EPM?

[Spursfanfromafar]

Great stuff, thanks OP! Do you have a Dunksandthrees subscription? How do you like it?

Also, is this Estimated EPM or Actual EPM?

Actual EPM.

[BacktoBasics]

I would like to revisit this graph if Fox plays the rest of the season and doesn’t get shut down for finger surgery. The addition of another dynamic player particularly offensively could move the needle for a few of these players.

With that said I expect a pretty good roster turnover this offseason. Especially the end of the bench and 8-10.