Sunday Stat Mini-Session: Myth Busting "Trae Young is better than Fox"

[scott]

Have seen an increased degree of chatter from folks stating that we should have gone after Trae Young instead of Swipa, and that "Young is better than Fox"

Let's put this to the test.

First of all, we need to consider that to get Trae, it would have likely cost all of the Atlanta picks.

So say for a moment that you think Trae is a better player (which he isn't and I'll show that below)... would folks here prefer Trae over Fox to the tune of giving up all of the ATL picks? I sure as hell wouldn't.

But as far as "Trae is better than Fox"... let's see what other opinions and (more importantly) factual data tells us:



Source
Fox Rank
Young Rank


The Ringer Top 100 Players (Updated 2/27)
21
30


CBS Preseason Top 100 Players
27
35


ESPN Preseason Top 100 Players
26
37




So all three of these publications are in agreement that Fox > Young.

What do the advanced stats say?



Stat
Fox
Young


VORP
1.3
0.8


CraftedWARP
4.46
3.2


LEBRON WAR
4.79
4.15


CraftedPlusMinus
1.8
0.6


CraftedOPM
2.1
3.0


CraftedDPM
-0.3
-2.4


BPM
0.5
-0.4


OBPM
1.4
2.4


DBPM
-0.8
-2.9


DARKO
1.6
1.5


DARKO O-DPM
2.3
3.4


DARKO D-DPM
-0.7
-2.0


DRIP
1.8
1.0


O-DRIP
2.3
2.7


D-DRIP
-0.5
-1.7


LEBRON
1.2
0.6


O-LEBRON
1.44
2.30


D-LEBRON
-0.29
-1.67




Almost every advanced statistical measure points to Fox being a better player. Young is a better offensive player, but by virtue of being one of the the absolute worst defenders in the league (2nd percentile CraftedDPM, 4th percentile D-LEBRON) whereas Fox is more of a middle of the road defender, is a worse overall player than Fox... which aligns with the fact that every publication rates Fox as the better player in their own rankings.

Let's also for a moment consider what things would look like on the court had we traded for Trae instead of Fox and played him the exact same way...

Your starting lineup is CP3/Trae/Vassell/Barnes/Biyombo. We're giving up 140 points per game, and Trae is struggling to play off-guard. We have 2 guys who get relentlessly hunted on D (Young and Vassell) while CP3 is forced to guard bigger SGs. Our rebounding suddenly looks even worse. People are upset because we look like shit with Trae (which also wouldn't be fair to Trae, who's put in a terrible position).

Fox is a better player than Trae Young, but our team has no spacing and he's forced to play SG. Hopefully the FO does more to address this in the offseason than just moving Castle into the starting lineup. Let's see how Swipa looks next year.

[TD 21]

Fox, in addition to needing surgery on a finger, is basically being put in the same position Murray was with the Hawks: Undersized SG/POA defender among starters, neither of which he's suited for.

With the off season to recuperate, Paul off the roster and Sochan likely back to starting (On This Season And Looking Ahead To The Off Season (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=304942)), expect him back to his usual fringe All-Star level next season.

[spurs10]

Good info! Thanks!

[ismael-robert]

Nah the comparison isn't trae it's lavine who just shat on him/us

[MaNu4Tres]

Trae is one of th most overrated players in modern NBA history.

Spurs FO never was really in on Trae... at all.

[exstatic]

Nah the comparison isn't trae it's lavine who just shat on him/us

The best ability is availability. Lavine has only played 70 games or more 3 times in 11 years, and has two seasons of less than 30 games played.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Fox, in addition to needing surgery on a finger, is basically being put in the same position Murray was with the Hawks: Undersized SG/POA defender among starters, neither of which he's suited for.

With the off season to recuperate, Paul off the roster and Sochan likely back to starting (On This Season And Looking Ahead To The Off Season (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=304942)), expect him back to his usual fringe All-Star level next season.

This. Plus Wemby being back and hopefully the Spurs getting a defensive minded 3 & D next season (Barnes is 3 and no D, Keldon is no 3 and no D, Vassell is sometimes 3 and no D, sometimes 3 and sometimes D or no 3 and no D sometimes!).. we should unlock the best version of Fox. The dream pair of new Spurs would be Cam Johnson and Cooper Flagg (with Keldon leaving). But the Spurs must prioritise that player type next season.

[ambchang]

Are people really complaining about getting fox over Trae young and zach lavine? Are we serious about this?

[exstatic]

Are people really complaining about getting fox over Trae young and zach lavine? Are we serious about this?

People on this forum with pretzel logic anything to hate on PATFO.

[LeBowen]

Are people really complaining about getting fox over Trae young and zach lavine? Are we serious about this?

Just a coping mechanism because people can't take all the losing anymore.

Fwiw, Trae would probably carry a bad team to more wins than Fox, but if you're to have anything that resembles actual team basketball, Fox is a way better player to have.
Heliocentric players won't win you shit unless they have a case for the best player in the league.
Trae's defense is also something that just can't work in the playoffs and diminishes a lot of his offensive output.

Is Fox perfect as a player? Obviously not. But he's a great second option for Wemby, it's just that we need Wemby to be healthy and the coaching staff to actually do something useful.

[DAF86]

Nah the comparison isn't trae it's lavine who just shat on him/us

Crofl, Lavine isn't better than Young, let alone Fox. Stop being prisoner of the moment, tbh.

[Kevin]

Fox>Trae>Lavine>Dev


Lavine is better than Dev and both players are injury prone. Wish the Spurs had traded Dev for Lavine. As I said in other threads Lavine is the player people think or hope Dev is or will be. Off ball sniper with some ability to get to the hoop, draw fouls, with play making while being below average on defense.

[exstatic]

Fox>Trae>Lavine>Dev


Lavine is better than Dev and both players are injury prone. Wish the Spurs had traded Dev for Lavine. As I said in other threads Lavine is the player people think or hope Dev is or will be. Off ball sniper with some ability to get to the hoop, draw fouls, with play making while being below average on defense.

…Who makes $50M a year

[Kevin]

…Who makes $50M a year

Lavine will make about 47M per year over the next two years. Dev will make about 26M over the next four years. Factoring in contract length its pretty debatable which deal you'd rather have. Dev has been pretty bad this season shooting 43% with horrible defense.

If Dev doesn't bounce back next year I'd easily rather have Lavine.

[BatManu20]

LaVine is also 30 years old and doesn't fit Wemby's timeline as well as Fox does, on top of the his bloated contract. We got Fox for pennies on the dollar too. Anyone complaining about that is kidding themselves. That's a deal you make 100 times out of 100.

[RC_Drunkford]

Fox is just worlds better defensively than Trae and LaVine. He‘s the best fit for our roster out of those 3

[exstatic]

Lavine will make about 47M per year over the next two years. Dev will make about 26M over the next four years. Factoring in contract length its pretty debatable which deal you'd rather have. Dev has been pretty bad this season shooting 43% with horrible defense.

If Dev doesn't bounce back next year I'd easily rather have Lavine.

You act like those are the only two choices. Spurs luckily made a better one in Fox.

[Dex]

Nah the comparison isn't trae it's lavine who just shat on him/us

So basically, you are overreacting over one good game he had against us (without Wemby) and ignoring the rest of his underwhelming career?

[Kevin]

You act like those are the only two choices. Spurs luckily made a better one in Fox.

The Spurs could plausibly have had both Fox and Lavine this deadline if they were wiling to move Dev is my point.

If Dev doesn't bounce back next season he quickly needs to be seen as neutral value asset at best. A lot of people myself included still give him quite a bit positive value despite his warts as player.

[LeBowen]

The Spurs could plausibly have had both Fox and Lavine this deadline if they were wiling to move Dev is my point.

If Dev doesn't bounce back next season he quickly needs to be seen as neutral value asset at best. A lot of people myself included still give him quite a bit positive value despite his warts as player.

Lavine isn't the type of player Spurs need.
Neither is Devin, but that's besides the point.

Spurs need multiple 6'8+ wings who can shoot the ball and are at least neutral defenders.
Whether it be via draft, free agency or trades, wings are the #1 priority.

Fox/Castle/Wemby core needs wings. Even if you want to keep starting Devin we need wings.
If Jeremy is to start he needs a wing partner who can shoot.

[Kevin]

Lavine isn't the type of player Spurs need.
Neither is Devin, but that's besides the point.

Spurs need multiple 6'8+ wings who can shoot the ball and are at least neutral defenders.
Whether it be via draft, free agency or trades, wings are the #1 priority.

Fox/Castle/Wemby core needs wings. Even if you want to keep starting Devin we need wings.
If Jeremy is to start he needs a wing partner who can shoot.

Whole roster needs to be rebuilt outside of Wemby/Fox/Castle and maybe Champ since he's on such a cheap deal for years to come. The rest of the roster is offense versus defense role players like KJ/Dev/Sochan/Mamu/Bassey or just plane suck like Mal and Blake. Spurs got ungodly lucky winning the Wemby lotto or there would be no end in sight right now.

[scott]

People get enamored by the most common archetype in the league... microwave scoring, no defense off-guard. We have a much rarer, much more valued SG archetype (two way SG) already in our team about to win ROTY, but we're wringing our hands over Zach Lavine?!?

[Kevin]

People get enamored by the most common archetype in the league... microwave scoring, no defense off-guard. We have a much rarer, much more valued SG archetype (two way SG) already in our team about to win ROTY, but we're wringing our hands over Zach Lavine?!?

I am not wringing my hands over Lavine I'd prefer him over Dev tho.

Yes of course the Spurs need a bunch of 3&D wings and PF's to round out the big three like every other contender. 3&D role players are like starting pitchers in baseball: you can never have enough.

[scott]

Whole roster needs to be rebuilt outside of Wemby/Fox/Castle and maybe Champ since he's on such a cheap deal for years to come. The rest of the roster is offense versus defense role players like KJ/Dev/Sochan/Mamu/Bassey or just plane suck like Mal and Blake. Spurs got ungodly lucky winning the Wemby lotto or there would be no end in sight right now.

I'd add Barnes to that list. He isn't a world beater, but he's a solid wing shooter who fits as a 5th option.

Sochan is still developing and has promise... not worth just giving up on but also has earned being considered part of any kind of core.

I appreciate the effort Keldon has brought post ASB in a tank-commander role... but that's all he's good for.

I swear if we run this team back and just add a couple of rookies, I'm going to lose my mind.

[scott]

I am not wringing my hands over Lavine I'd prefer him over Dev tho.

Yes of course the Spurs need a bunch of 3&D wings and PF's to round out the big three like every other contender. 3&D role players are like starting pitchers in baseball: you can never have enough.

Lavine is definitely better than Dev, and I agree with your statement that Lavine is what we hoped Dev would become... but we don't need either one of them. At this point, their USG would just be a detriment to our real Big 3.

[LeBowen]

I swear if we run this team back and just add a couple of rookies, I'm going to lose my mind.

Most likely outcome: draft one wing, get a PF in FA or via a smaller trade, cheap backup big, cheap veteran backup PG.

Starters:
Fox/Devin/Castle/PF/Wemby
Bench:
veteran PG, Champ, Keldon, Jeremy, backup big, with rookie getting over himself in Austin.

Pop doesn't officially retire and we have to watch some more Mitch Jonhson basketball.

[scott]

Most likely outcome: draft one wing, get a PF in FA or via a smaller trade, cheap backup big, cheap veteran backup PG.

Starters:
Fox/Devin/Castle/PF/Wemby
Bench:
veteran PG, Champ, Keldon, Jeremy, backup big, with rookie getting over himself in Austin.

Pop doesn't officially retire and we have to watch some more Mitch Jonhson basketball.

Can't wait for the Sniff Crew excuses about how it's best for us to tank just ONE MORE TIME and *next* season is the one where we make a leap for the playoffs! We be fools to miss out on the Dyabantsa sweepstakes!

I will be absolutely ruthless with the Muh Atlanta Picks crowd if that Swap fails to convey.

[kht]

Young is a step below Steph as a shooter and is a great passer. Young and Wemby would be godly. Beat some pretty good teams in the playoffs that they were underdogs in. Fox can't say the same.

But if you factor everything in... like you said, the assets it would take to get Young... and two-way factor, I'd take Fox all the way.

[spurraider21]

Lavine is definitely better than Dev, and I agree with your statement that Lavine is what we hoped Dev would become... but we don't need either one of them. At this point, their USG would just be a detriment to our real Big 3.
well, we hoped Dev would also be an ace defender.

at this point im hoping he becomes lonnie walker :lol

[cd98]

I've no doubt that Young would be great on this team. People can argue Fox v. Young. I am not going there because it doesn't really matter. It would have cost all the Atlanta picks plus some players to get Young and we got Fox for much less than that. Getting Fox was a no brainer. We are talking about two great starters and while I like what Young brings, Fox is certainly a great addition and a superior addition when you consider the cost.

[TekXX]

Until we get rid of the bums on this team, no one will look good.

[LeBowen]

Until we get rid of the bums on this team, no one will look good.

We have a lot of useless players, but coaching is a bigger issue, tbh.
If everyone looks bad, then it's on coaching.

As much as I hate Devin and Keldon, I'd rather run it back with this same roster and a top tier coach than have two more high end starters with Mitch/Pop in charge.

[scott]

We have a lot of useless players, but coaching is a bigger issue, tbh.
If everyone looks bad, then it's on coaching.

As much as I hate Devin and Keldon, I'd rather run it back with this same roster and a top tier coach than have two more high end starters with Mitch/Pop in charge.

:pop: what if I told you that you can have the worst of both worlds?