Florida Clayton Jr

[SpursGenius]

22 and old for first rounder. But baller. Jay Williams says he should be number 2 behind Flagg despite Mock drafts late first and early second.

[Mr. Body]

Couple years ago Caleb Love went super hot and got UNC into the final game. Sometimes these undersize SGs get hot for some games.

[exstatic]

22 and old for first rounder. But baller. Jay Williams says he should be number 2 behind Flagg despite Mock drafts late first and early second.

22 year olds in the lottery are fools gold, and a bad bet.

[tim_duncan_fan]

Pretty much all of business is buy low, sell high. You want this guy? Be the team who gets him as the first pick of the second round; otherwise, draft for the usual alchemic function between high potential and need.

[Maddog]

I posted this a while back
https://www.theringer.com/2024/11/26/nba/dalton-knecht-los-angeles-lakers-prospect-age-rookie

[exstatic]

I posted this a while back
https://www.theringer.com/2024/11/26/nba/dalton-knecht-los-angeles-lakers-prospect-age-rookie

Everyone needs to read this. It’s a good numerical analysis using real data over a decent period of time.

[mo7888]

22 and old for first rounder. But baller. Jay Williams says he should be number 2 behind Flagg despite Mock drafts late first and early second.

I love his game, but that way too high. He's gets interesting in the 20's.

[SpursGenius]

hopefully lasts to Spurs second round pick but wont.

[BackHome]

You know Spurs will probably trade our second round pick as our G League is full of potential calls ups.

[scott]

I posted this a while back
https://www.theringer.com/2024/11/26/nba/dalton-knecht-los-angeles-lakers-prospect-age-rookie

It's an interesting article, but there is a pretty glaring hole in some of the data that should cause most readers to scratch their heads. The performance::age curves are inconsistent, for FRPs and Lotto picks, there is a dip in performance vs. expectations for 20 year olds and then performance increases for 21 year olds (and likewise for 19 year olds for Non-Lotto FRPs). The begs the question of whether there are other factors at play that are creating a bias in the data, because there is not a clearly distinguishable correlation between age and performance relative to expectation. Part of that may be because there is a rather steep expectation curve, so by simply breaking FRPs into two categories (lotto v non-lotto) there is still a significant degree of sample bias at play. Indeed, the expectations for the 30th pick are closer to the expectations of the 10th pick than the 10th pick is close to the 1st pick.

It would be fascinating to break the data down on a pick-by-pick basis, but then your sample size is too small and everything would start to fall apart.

What is clear, however, is that 22+ year olds underperform consistently and there are only a few exceptions. So by picking a 22+ year old you're really putting faith in your own ability to pick winners and losers, which is a bold yet precarious position to take!

[jjspur]

Anyone still think the spurs are taking 2 first rounders or will they trade the Atlanta pick for something down the road or a player ? The current roster will have a few players leaving, so there are a lot of different options. Same situation as last year, just a bit better draft.

[SupremeGuy]

Spurs need bigs tbh

[spurraider21]

Anyone still think the spurs are taking 2 first rounders or will they trade the Atlanta pick for something down the road or a player ? The current roster will have a few players leaving, so there are a lot of different options. Same situation as last year, just a bit better draft.
id be disappointed if they didnt use both picks to improve the team. if they're going to move one, it should be for a player, not a future pick

[SpursBills]

Depends on how you feel about Payton Pritchard and where he gives you appropriate value. Short combo guard, limited athleticism, flamethrower. Pritchard's got more dawg and had better than expected development, but Clayton has a relatively rare combination of accuracy and volume specifically for self created (unassisted) 3 pointers, which is very valuable in the modern NBA. Pritchard was a huge steal in the second round, but in the lottery he'd probably be a reach for an excellent 6th-7th man who can get exploited defensively. I'd agree that mid-20's seems about the right range for him, and if he's available anywhere in the second round he's an auto draft / trade up target for me.

[Atl Spur]

Buddy has that Brunson feel impact wise to me; I’d be surprised if he doesn’t have a nice career. High IQ and deadeye shooter that can play pg and sg ( next to a castle type ).

[Spursfanfromafar]

Depends on how you feel about Payton Pritchard and where he gives you appropriate value. Short combo guard, limited athleticism, flamethrower. Pritchard's got more dawg and had better than expected development, but Clayton has a relatively rare combination of accuracy and volume specifically for self created (unassisted) 3 pointers, which is very valuable in the modern NBA. Pritchard was a huge steal in the second round, but in the lottery he'd probably be a reach for an excellent 6th-7th man who can get exploited defensively. I'd agree that mid-20's seems about the right range for him, and if he's available anywhere in the second round he's an auto draft / trade up target for me.

If the Spurs end up trading their 12-15th pick to the Nets for Cam Johnson (with Barnes/Johnson) going away..they can also prise one of the Nets' mid 20ish picks. And Clayton Jr can be a good pick there, IMO.

Good chance of this happening if the Spurs' own pick lands in the top 3.

[cd98]

I saw him making nice passes and he obviously was a great shooter during the tournament. Still, I hope a team does pick him second and push more of the young talent our way.

[jjspur]

Not good enough to take at 16 but not bad enough to take at 38. If the spurs could somehow make a trade for a 22- 28 ish 1st round pick, that's probably the sweet spot for him. He's a little bit older, but the guy helped himself immensely during the tournament. I can see him having a Derrick White NBA career.

[Atl Spur]

16 would be just fine…..

[exstatic]

16 would be just fine…..

He got jammed in the PnR by a college defense. Don’t even think he got a shot off in the first half.

Second round grade.

[paperboy77]

Everyone needs to read this. It’s a good numerical analysis using real data over a decent period of time.

Sum it up bro!

[exstatic]

Sum it up bro!

In a nutshell? Don’t draft 22-23 year olds before the second round.

[Atl Spur]

I beg to differ but who knows right?

[mo7888]

In a nutshell? Don’t draft 22-23 year olds before the second round.

So we should have passed on Derrick White? Got it...

[GAustex]

Clayton’s ability to hit long shots off the dribble and the clutch gene is intriguing

[exstatic]

So we should have passed on Derrick White? Got it...

Well, he was almost a second rounder. He also took forever to develop, to the point they offloaded him for Branham and a swap.

[mo7888]

Well, he was almost a second rounder. He also took forever to develop, to the point they offloaded him for Branham and a swap.

So, we offloaded him for 2 firsts? Not bad value for a late 20's draft pick. I also think that's about where Clayton Jr gets picked. I think AtlSpur is the only person I've seen suggesting getting him with the Atlanta pick and that's way to high.