How big is the gap between Flagg and Harper?

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Both are great prospects but curious to hear from those that have seen a decent amount of both.

[Dejounte]

https://x.com/tyler_rucker/status/1922122038006743271?s=46

Flagg is a Tatum level star
Harper has a range to become a Cade level star to a JDub level star. Folks are saying Harden but to shoot as well as Harden does, Harper has a LONG way to go

Everyone after Harper has questions of whether they can become a star or not. Harper and Flagg both have “definite” stardom tagged to them.

The gap between Harper’s max potential and current Giannis is big though

[LeBowen]

https://x.com/tyler_rucker/status/1922122038006743271?s=46

Flagg is a Tatum level star
Harper has a range to become a Cade level star to a JDub level star. Folks are saying Harden but to shoot as well as Harden does, Harper has a LONG way to go


Tatum in his 4th year: 26.4/7.4/4.3 on 46/38/87
Cade in his 4th year: 26.1/6.1/9.1 on 47/36/85

Just saying...

Also, Cade's defense is still questionable, Harper's passes the eye test, we can't know for certain until we see him in the NBA.


The gap between Harper’s max potential and current Giannis is big though

So is everyone's because peak Giannis has a top10 player ever case if we're talking just basketball ability.
The gap in the asking price is also big because anyone thinking Giannis wouldn't cost either both Harper and Castle with a couple more picks or Harper and a haul of picks is delusional.


Before the lottery we were considering all the playmakers in the draft because we needed a backup PG for the future.
Harper is definitely overqualified for the job, but we shouldn't overthink it.
Listen to everyone's offers, would be dumb not to and teams are certainly already calling, but unless it's a big overpay, I think we'll see Harper in Spurs uniform.

[CGD]

And to get to the subtext of what your asking: no, Dallas isnt taking Harper over Cooper.

[Mal]

Flagg has perfect fit for Spurs. Harper would require some thinking to fit him, Castle, Fox, Vassell.

[thiste]

And to get to the subtext of what your asking: no, Dallas isnt taking Harper over Cooper.

Do you think there is a world where Mavs & Spurs make that trade happen? Since both of them fit a lot better with the other team. What would Spurs need to give up?

[stnick2261]

The gap is big, but I don't think it's "Castle" big. I would add stuff to trade up because Flagg is a better fit, but I would be happy just drafting Harper and not thinking twice about it.

[tbdog]

Well Luka for young deal was just an extra first. If the mavs prefer Harper but want to maximize their return, I assume the cost would be their 2030 pick back and perhaps that ALT pick.

[mo7888]

Well Luka for young deal was just an extra first. If the mavs prefer Harper but want to maximize their return, I assume the cost would be their 2030 pick back and perhaps that ALT pick.

If they put that on the table we couldn't pass....

[exstatic]

Flagg has perfect fit for Spurs. Harper would require some thinking to fit him, Castle, Fox, Vassell.

The Friendship coalition is expendable.

[mo7888]

The Friendship coalition is expendable.

Yep... If we keep the pick we should expect to see Devin and Keldon moved this summer.

[Mal]

The Friendship coalition is expendable.

Part of the thinking process

[Uriel]

How big is the gap between Cade Cunningham and Scottie Pippen?

[exstatic]

Yep... If we keep the pick we should expect to see Devin and Keldon moved this summer.

Certainly Devin. Keldon is cheap, short term, and has already accepted a role.

[LeBowen]

I tried looking in at it in every possible way, but the Mavs are still fucked, tbh.

https://i.imgur.com/r3bbAgj.png

#1 pick gets $11.5M in his first year.

They have their own '26, '31, '32 picks, '29 LAL.
'28 OKC swap, '29 HOU swap, '30 SAS swap.
Can't trade '26 because '27 is gone to CHA, top2 protected.

Kyrie is out for the year, Flagg is the player you always get, but there's no feasible way of getting some legit playmaking on that roster.
And even if they do, AD will inevitably get injured, Klay is washed and noone else is reliable.
Some solid young players in there, but you don't treadmill with AD.

They'll barely be under the second apron which is at $204M after they get Flagg. Kyrie's contract kills any hope of contending the next season.

If Mavs ownership had any reason in them, they'd fire Nico and get a new GM in, start fresh.
Trade AD and Klay and build the right way.

Nico will probably flip PJ Washington and someone else for a solid point guard, but that's going to last for a couple of seasons at the most and then what?
Flagg will be in the exact same situation Luka was in.

[exstatic]

I tried looking in at it in every possible way, but the Mavs are still fucked, tbh.

https://i.imgur.com/r3bbAgj.png

#1 pick gets $11.5M in his first year.

They have their own '26, '31, '32 picks, '29 LAL.
'28 OKC swap, '29 HOU swap, '30 SAS swap.
Can't trade '26 because '27 is gone to CHA, top2 protected.

Kyrie is out for the year, Flagg is the player you always get, but there's no feasible way of getting some legit playmaking on that roster.
And even if they do, AD will inevitably get injured, Klay is washed and noone else is reliable.
Some solid young players in there, but you don't treadmill with AD.

They'll barely be under the second apron which is at $204M after they get Flagg. Kyrie's contract kills any hope of contending the next season.

If Mavs ownership had any reason in them, they'd fire Nico and get a new GM in, start fresh.
Trade AD and Klay and build the right way.

Nico will probably flip PJ Washington and someone else for a solid point guard, but that's going to last for a couple of seasons at the most and then what?
Flagg will be in the exact same situation Luka was in.

They could always poach CP.

[spursparker9]

Harper would be the #1 pick in the 2024 draft easily and maybe the 2022 draft, 2021 draft

[LeBowen]

They could always poach CP.

Sure, as a backup.
But that team has no self-creation whatsoever, they need a high end starting PG.

[mo7888]

I tried looking in at it in every possible way, but the Mavs are still fucked, tbh.

https://i.imgur.com/r3bbAgj.png

#1 pick gets $11.5M in his first year.

They have their own '26, '31, '32 picks, '29 LAL.
'28 OKC swap, '29 HOU swap, '30 SAS swap.
Can't trade '26 because '27 is gone to CHA, top2 protected.

Kyrie is out for the year, Flagg is the player you always get, but there's no feasible way of getting some legit playmaking on that roster.
And even if they do, AD will inevitably get injured, Klay is washed and noone else is reliable.
Some solid young players in there, but you don't treadmill with AD.

They'll barely be under the second apron which is at $204M after they get Flagg. Kyrie's contract kills any hope of contending the next season.

If Mavs ownership had any reason in them, they'd fire Nico and get a new GM in, start fresh.
Trade AD and Klay and build the right way.

Nico will probably flip PJ Washington and someone else for a solid point guard, but that's going to last for a couple of seasons at the most and then what?
Flagg will be in the exact same situation Luka was in.

Exactly...that's why I threw out the AD trade last night. It may or may not be a good deal for us, but the main point was that Dallas has to consider moving AD because his value is worth more to other teams than it is to Dallas because they're screwed either way.

[Frenchfred]

So maybe, Dallas agree to a Flag for Harper if the Spurs find a way to take some of Irving or Klay’s contract off their plate giving them more room for the future.

[benefactor]

You know how we talk about the difference between superstar players and franchise players? That's the difference.

[KobesAchilles]

Flagg is just a bigger stronger and more athletic player. That is always going to be the case. Harper has better handles. But if Flagg pretty much flops than I still can’t see him being worse than Franz Wagner. If he hits then I see him being a very solid all star level player. Neither are good enough to lead a team to a title but it is always better to build around a bigger player than a smaller player. But both of their games are very different. Harper really could be a player just like his dad. And that would make us a contender.

[LeBowen]

So maybe, Dallas agree to a Flag for Harper if the Spurs find a way to take some of Irving or Klay’s contract off their plate giving them more room for the future.

That's what I suggested last night. It would set us back a year, but it would be worth it.
#2, '30 swap returned, one more FRP, Devin and Barnes for #1 and Kyrie's expiring.


You know how we talk about the difference between superstar players and franchise players? That's the difference.

Who's a superstar and who's a franchise player?
If we're going with S+ tier Wemby is going to be in, I'd say that just Jokic and Giannis are in there right now, with SGA, Luka (if he gets fit again) and Tatum (pre-injury) being just below in S tier.
Flagg can get to that S tier eventually.

[cd98]

Oddly, the rookie of the year will probably be on the Jazz or the Hornets because the first three will have small roles on playoff teams.

[benefactor]

Who's a superstar and who's a franchise player?
If we're going with S+ tier Wemby is going to be in, I'd say that just Jokic and Giannis are in there right now, with SGA, Luka (if he gets fit again) and Tatum (pre-injury) being just below in S tier.
Flagg can get to that S tier eventually.
I'm going with ceiling. Harper has a superstar ceiling. Flagg should have still been in high school doing what he did at Duke. He has a franchise player ceiling.

[vy65]

Does Flagg hit his top 1% potential playing with Wemby? Is there enough oxygen at the top?

[ambchang]

Flagg is somewhere between Pippen 0.8 and Pippen 1.2. That’s a hell of a projection.

I’d be ecstatic if Harper can turn out like Cade.

[exstatic]

Sure, as a backup.
But that team has no self-creation whatsoever, they need a high end starting PG.

They basically need a starting PG, and Uncle Chris still is that. He started all 82, and with a competent backup, he might do it again. Dallas has no means to get what you’re advocating.

[baseline bum]

Harper would be the #1 pick in the 2024 draft easily and maybe the 2022 draft, 2021 draft

I don't think he would have been taken over Banchero nor Chet. Tough call vs Cade.

[Ice009]

They basically need a starting PG, and Uncle Chris still is that. He started all 82, and with a competent backup, he might do it again. Dallas has no means to get what you’re advocating.

I was going to say that he might just got to Dallas, but I didn't want to bring it up. I think he's going to be interested in wanting to play with Cooper Flagg and Anthony Davis.

[baseline bum]

Flagg is somewhere between Pippen 0.8 and Pippen 1.2. That’s a hell of a projection.

I’d be ecstatic if Harper can turn out like Cade.

I think of Flagg more as Rasheed with a better motor, which is a monster of a player. I know he doesn't have Sheed's height but they have virtually the same wingspan.

[spursistan]

Higher vertical than Flagg. For a guard, Harper has elite athleticism measurements so far..

https://x.com/DraftExpress/status/1922313664926830765

[SpursGenius]

Higher vertical than Flagg. For a guard, Harper has elite athleticism measurements so far..

https://x.com/DraftExpress/status/1922313664926830765
Harper only one inch behind with way better reach

[024]

I can see why Flagg is the presumed #1 pick but I don't see why many think Harper is far behind. Someone that crafty offensively with great athleticism and size will bound to have a low floor and high ceiling in the NBA.

Flagg is more versatile, a better 2 way player, and can play both forward positions but nothing specifically jumps out in terms of skill set. His self-creation looks clunky at times. Can easily see him fall into a second or third option role whereas I can see the potential of Harper running the offense of a team. Still would pick Flagg if given the chance but I don't see the gap being as large as people think.

[jesterbobman]

Flagg is in a tier by himself. He was arguably the best player in College last year, and he's the youngest player in the draft. His upside is something like Tatum / Kawhi with healthy knees, and he was a better prospect than either of those two. He was both a very good offensive and defensive player, and should be able to fill spots on the floor and provide help at 3/4.

I love Harper. I love big guards who are on balance, have good footwork and can drive, the size gives a lot of positional flexibility. I would trade 2, 14 and cancel the swap for Flagg and not think too hard about it.

[Uriel]

Flagg is rated 83 in 2K. Harper 80. So the difference is 3.

[spurraider21]

I don't think he would have been taken over Banchero nor Chet. Tough call vs Cade.
right before that draft wasnt the rumor that jabari smith was gonna go #1?

[baseline bum]

right before that draft wasnt the rumor that jabari smith was gonna go #1?

Yeah I remember the hype being that the draft would go

1. Smith
2. Holmgren
3. Ivey
4. Banchero

but that turned out bullshit. Glad Banchero went #1 because I was pissed the Spurs weren't trying to trade up to #4 to get him back when it looked like he would slip there.

[spursparker9]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OUxl3qlpVA

[spursparker9]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbIdB7xEhR0

[mo7888]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OUxl3qlpVA

I sure hope Nico thinks like this guy..

[spursparker9]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoM2XXuDR_k

[LeBowen]

I'll go with a homer stance, but what's Flagg's generational talent trait? He looks like a surefire all-star without any real red flags (pun intended), but what's his S+ tier talent that would make him generational?
Doesn't have Lebron's athleticism, KD's scoring ability or nephew's hands/strength. I can definitely see a Pippen 2.0, but not the best player in the league, even if we exclude Wemby.

Meanwhile Harper's 70% at the rim that was just posted in that other topic is a generational attribute combined with his size and footwork.
Guards never get all-time great superstar labels in the draft.
SGA, Curry, Harden and got picked after inferior wings just because "can't teach size argument", Haliburton and Brunson are leading their teams, every elite team has elite ballhandlers who can create out of nothing.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Both will be stars.

But either can be better than the other.

That's why Dallas and Spurs will hesitate to trade. if you gamble wrong, you regret for lifetime.

[Spurs Homer]

not sure if this is old news and im not in da loop like you guys...but..
go to the 3:00 mark and check out his answer to how he thinks he fits with the dallas roster?

apologies if this is old news -


https://youtu.be/syLcOVvQlTo?si=Sejsuh2tWcG9t-NQ

[Spurs Homer]

wherever i end up...wherever it is...? wut?

lol mavs

[baseline bum]

Does Flagg hit his top 1% potential playing with Wemby? Is there enough oxygen at the top?

I think so, he has a really diverse offensive game and he'd have a lot of freedom defensively with Victor behind him at the rim. Would have been a dream pairing, Duncan-Robinson level but hitting their primes together.

[baseline bum]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoM2XXuDR_k

That's kind of old. Early season looked like an outside shot Harper could work his way to #1 on the draft boards but once Flagg's three point shot came around it was over.

[exstatic]

I'll go with a homer stance, but what's Flagg's generational talent trait? He looks like a surefire all-star without any real red flags (pun intended), but what's his S+ tier talent that would make him generational?
Doesn't have Lebron's athleticism, KD's scoring ability or nephew's hands/strength. I can definitely see a Pippen 2.0, but not the best player in the league, even if we exclude Wemby.

Meanwhile Harper's 70% at the rim that was just posted in that other topic is a generational attribute combined with his size and footwork.
Guards never get all-time great superstar labels in the draft.
SGA, Curry, Harden and got picked after inferior wings just because "can't teach size argument", Haliburton and Brunson are leading their teams, every elite team has elite ballhandlers who can create out of nothing.

He’s not generational. Neither is Flagg . That term is massively overused. Since the turn of the millennium, there have been 3 generational prospects: LeBron, Zion, and Wemby. That’s it. There’s a difference between generational and a clear #1, which is what Flagg is, and what AD was.

[baseline bum]

I'll go with a homer stance, but what's Flagg's generational talent trait? He looks like a surefire all-star without any real red flags (pun intended), but what's his S+ tier talent that would make him generational?
Doesn't have Lebron's athleticism, KD's scoring ability or nephew's hands/strength. I can definitely see a Pippen 2.0, but not the best player in the league, even if we exclude Wemby.

Meanwhile Harper's 70% at the rim that was just posted in that other topic is a generational attribute combined with his size and footwork.
Guards never get all-time great superstar labels in the draft.
SGA, Curry, Harden and got picked after inferior wings just because "can't teach size argument", Haliburton and Brunson are leading their teams, every elite team has elite ballhandlers who can create out of nothing.

To me Flagg is Rasheed with a better motor. He's not Dame shooting the three or Duncan on the block or Giannis facing up and bulling to the rim but he's a jack of all trades who has a lot of ways to attack efficiently. Same way Sheed was, so many tools. And Rasheed with a motor is terrifying.

[CGD]

not sure if this is old news and im not in da loop like you guys...but..
go to the 3:00 mark and check out his answer to how he thinks he fits with the dallas roster?

apologies if this is old news -


https://youtu.be/syLcOVvQlTo?si=Sejsuh2tWcG9t-NQ

It’s basic media training my dude. Also, the ESPN numb nuts keep trying to peg him on the Dallas question, but I’m pretty sure there are rules about how much he can talk about specific teams. It was like when they kept asking the Spurs about Wemby’s fit after the draft, and the Spurs kept hedging answers even though we all knew Wemby was the pick. These analysts should know better.

[Spurs Homer]

It’s basic media training my dude. Also, the ESPN numb nuts keep trying to peg him on the Dallas question, but I’m pretty sure there are rules about how much he can talk about specific teams. It was like when they kept asking the Spurs about Wemby’s fit after the draft, and the Spurs kept hedging answers even though we all knew Wemby was the pick. These analysts should know better.

got you...i must have brain farted into a belief it was officially a done deal and dallas was his team...

which will probably happen - but of course - this was not the actual draft - duh!

[Arguendo]

https://x.com/tyler_rucker/status/1922122038006743271?s=46

Flagg is a Tatum level star
Harper has a range to become a Cade level star to a JDub level star. Folks are saying Harden but to shoot as well as Harden does, Harper has a LONG way to go

Everyone after Harper has questions of whether they can become a star or not. Harper and Flagg both have “definite” stardom tagged to them.

The gap between Harper’s max potential and current Giannis is big though
Yeah, 2nd all of this, both have franchise level upside but Flagg have more and an easier path.

The thing with Harden that I don't think people realize is he is very likely the best ever at getting to the line while taking tons of 3s.
Harden's career FTr is an absurd 51%, in the range with Giannis and Butler at 52% and 53%, but Giannis only takes 14% of his shoots from 3, while Jimmy only 19%. FTr and 3PAr are typically inverse, Wemby's FTr plummetted this yr bc his 3PAr highrocketed.
Harden's taken 47% of his shots from 3 and still goes to the line 51% of the time. That's insane. For reference, Shaqs FTr was 58% and a huge chunk of that was initial.

Where I'm really high on Castle (to maybe reach star) and now Harper (to maybe reach SS) is FTr, forcing the issue, drawing fouls, getting free points. Castle was at 38% FTr at UConn, translated to top 30 in all-nba last yr at 35%, #15 overall excluding part-time Cs who always dominate FTr.
Harper was at 42% at Rutgers, that's SGA level. And FTr tends to translate bc its a factor of play style and body control.
Between Fox, Castle and Harper Spurs guards are gonna draw a ton of fouls. All 3 could be top 50 in FTr and I almost expect top 30 for Castle and Harper. Excited.

[Arguendo]

They basically need a starting PG, and Uncle Chris still is that. He started all 82, and with a competent backup, he might do it again. Dallas has no means to get what you’re advocating.
CP3 is their best bet, maybe he takes min to keep starting, and healthy AD + Flagg w/CP3 and Co will fight for POs.
That #1 slot money with Flagg maxxed is $13.8M, that puts then more than $1M into the second apron as it stands now. They don't have any assets and shouldn't trade them anyways for a stop-gap, 40y/o CP3 is prolly the best PG they can actually get.

[mo7888]

CP3 is their best bet, maybe he takes min to keep starting, and healthy AD + Flagg w/CP3 and Co will fight for POs.
That #1 slot money with Flagg maxxed is $13.8M, that puts then more than $1M into the second apron as it stands now. They don't have any assets and shouldn't trade them anyways for a stop-gap, 40y/o CP3 is prolly the best PG they can actually get.

They'll need to move PJ taking back less salary to get under that apron.

[Seventyniner]

They'll need to move PJ taking back less salary to get under that apron.

Teams can now trade players into another team's MLE, so Dallas could just offload PJ for nothing if they get desperate. PJ is a good enough player that the receiving team shouldn't demand additional assets.

[mo7888]

Teams can now trade players into another team's MLE, so Dallas could just offload PJ for nothing if they get desperate. PJ is a good enough player that the receiving team shouldn't demand additional assets.

Interesting...that's good to know..

[RC_Drunkford]

They'll need to move PJ taking back less salary to get under that apron.

CP3 for PJ Washington sign and trade :stirpot:

[mo7888]

CP3 for PJ Washington sign and trade :stirpot:

I don't hate it. It'd benefit both teams.

[rjv]

honestly, flagg is #1 but not head and shoulders above harper. this is not a case of Wemby and everyone else, where if healthy, he has the best career of that class, hands down. harper is right there on flagg's heels.

[paperboy77]

Don't know enough about either one but to me Flagg seems to be the sure #1 choice. Only thing I'll say is that the comps I've seen online are insane. Kawhi Leanord, KG... a combination. To me he's gonna be an 18, 8, 3 assists maybe a steal and a block plus defend his position. What's he really great at?

[Brazil]

Flagg has perfect fit for Spurs. Harper would require some thinking to fit him, Castle, Fox, Vassell.

if Spurs pick Harper it is unlikely Vassell stay unless Mitch considers Harper needs G league playing time :lol

[spurraider21]

CP3 for PJ Washington sign and trade :stirpot:
do the spurs have sufficient rights w/ paul to do a sign and trade?

[Extra Stout]

if Spurs pick Harper it is unlikely Vassell stay unless Mitch considers Harper needs G league playing time :lol

Fox 32 minutes
Castle 32 minutes
Vassell 28 minutes
Harper 28 minutes
Champagnie 24 minutes

1 through 3 that adds up to 144 and I don’t see the problem.

Wembanyama 32 minutes
????? 16 minutes

That’s a problem.

????? 32 minutes
Barnes 16 minutes

That’s a problem.

Sochan and Johnson should be deep-bench and out of the rotation.

[exstatic]

Yeah, 2nd all of this, both have franchise level upside but Flagg have more and an easier path.

The thing with Harden that I don't think people realize is he is very likely the best ever at getting to the line while taking tons of 3s.
Harden's career FTr is an absurd 51%, in the range with Giannis and Butler at 52% and 53%, but Giannis only takes 14% of his shoots from 3, while Jimmy only 19%. FTr and 3PAr are typically inverse, Wemby's FTr plummetted this yr bc his 3PAr highrocketed.
Harden's taken 47% of his shots from 3 and still goes to the line 51% of the time. That's insane. For reference, Shaqs FTr was 58% and a huge chunk of that was initial.

Where I'm really high on Castle (to maybe reach star) and now Harper (to maybe reach SS) is FTr, forcing the issue, drawing fouls, getting free points. Castle was at 38% FTr at UConn, translated to top 30 in all-nba last yr at 35%, #15 overall excluding part-time Cs who always dominate FTr.
Harper was at 42% at Rutgers, that's SGA level. And FTr tends to translate bc its a factor of play style and body control.
Between Fox, Castle and Harper Spurs guards are gonna draw a ton of fouls. All 3 could be top 50 in FTr and I almost expect top 30 for Castle and Harper. Excited.

James Harden is a 36% career 3 point shooter. It’s not like trying to match Steph Curry.

[RC_Drunkford]

do the spurs have sufficient rights w/ paul to do a sign and trade?

he's on the team until they renounce his cap hold. So a sign and trade would be possible if he wants to go to a team that doesn't have the money to sign him. Then again at his age he'd probably play for vet minimum if it's a contender. Maybe Brian Wright can pull a rabbit out the hat.

[Brazil]

Fox 32 minutes
Castle 32 minutes
Vassell 28 minutes
Harper 28 minutes
Champagnie 24 minutes

1 through 3 that adds up to 144 and I don’t see the problem.

Wembanyama 32 minutes
????? 16 minutes

That’s a problem.

????? 32 minutes
Barnes 16 minutes

That’s a problem.

Sochan and Johnson should be deep-bench and out of the rotation.

What I mean is that Spurs are full of guards, Vassell is the one who has value and expendable in the 4. If you keep everybody you have to deal with who plays GT or in the 4th, would also mean plenty of small balls other than Victor. You have also Fox is usually playing 37/38 mpg, with the Spurs he was at 34 not sure he will be thrilled to see his minutes go down further. Even without Vassell it's a headache.

People are using OKC as an example but they have 2 guards at +32 mpg one at 28 and a bunch at 22 in a context of a lot of games with significant amount of garbage time during RS. POs OKC is a clear 2 man guard rotation Shai and Jaren at +35 then you have 2 at 20 caruso and wallace.

It's a good problem to have but what Spurs need is as you wrote options of SF/PF and C tbh. So if you go harper I guess you trade Vassell to fill those needs

[Brazil]

James Harden is a 36% career 3 point shooter. It’s not like trying to match Steph Curry.

his point was FTs. Harden shoots a lot of 3s at 36% but goes to the line a lot thus efg% above .5

[benefactor]

There is absolutely no reason to keep Vassell...much less play him 30 fucking minutes. :lol

Be no longer chained by the power of friendship...break them and be made new.

[spurraider21]

his point was FTs. Harden shoots a lot of 3s at 36% but goes to the line a lot thus efg% above .5
free throws dont factor into efg%

[$pursDynasty]

Like a previous poster pondered, how much sweetner would the Mavs need to move from #1 to #2? How much besides #2 and #14? A boatload of #2's maybe a Spurs #1 down the line? Can that get it done? Flagg is a better fit for the Spurs if they are going long term development than Harper, and if Mav's see them anywhere near close in skill a swap might happen.

[LeBowen]

Like a previous poster pondered, how much sweetner would the Mavs need to move from #1 to #2? How much besides #2 and #14? A boatload of #2's maybe a Spurs #1 down the line? Can that get it done? Flagg is a better fit for the Spurs if they are going long term development than Harper, and if Mav's see them anywhere near close in skill a swap might happen.

I wouldn't offer more than #2, #14 and their '30 swap returned. Maaaaaybe one more FRP and whatever seconds they'd like.
But it's not happening.

[stnick2261]

Like a previous poster pondered, how much sweetner would the Mavs need to move from #1 to #2? How much besides #2 and #14? A boatload of #2's maybe a Spurs #1 down the line? Can that get it done? Flagg is a better fit for the Spurs if they are going long term development than Harper, and if Mav's see them anywhere near close in skill a swap might happen.

Flagg is a better fit on the Spurs and Harper is a better fit on the Mavs, so it would be beneficial for Dallas to trade down... but it would be a PR nightmare for their fans.

[Dex]

I wouldn't offer more than #2, #14 and their '30 swap returned. Maaaaaybe one more FRP and whatever seconds they'd like.
But it's not happening.

That is a huge haul for a player who we don't know is really going to be THAT good. I'd rather just take Harper and use the assets for something else.

[mo7888]

That is a huge haul for a player who we don't know is really going to be THAT good. I'd rather just take Harper and use the assets for something else.

If LeBowen's offer worked you'd make that trade 10 times out of 10..

[Kurgan]

Like a previous poster pondered, how much sweetner would the Mavs need to move from #1 to #2? How much besides #2 and #14? A boatload of #2's maybe a Spurs #1 down the line? Can that get it done? Flagg is a better fit for the Spurs if they are going long term development than Harper, and if Mav's see them anywhere near close in skill a swap might happen.

I don't think there's anything reasonable the Spurs can offer that would get it done. Mavs were given a lifeline with that 1st pick. Trading down for the 2nd would just get the fan base riled up again after they just spent the past few months looking like the laughing stock of the NBA.

[John B]

Seeing Castle working for greatness (and I don’t doubt he’ll get there with his work ethic), is there a room for a 3rd franchise type player like Flagg? I will argue that the Miami Heat was more of a LeBron/Wade and Bosh as super role player (his stats went down with LeBron as teammate). Would Flagg take a 3rd and seemingly less role in the future? While Dylan is a better fit as a creator like the Big 3. There are Pros on trading for Flagg for sure, if Flagg is okay to take that lesser role, because the Spurs is Wemby’s team. Can the Spurs have that many alphas in the team? The Big 3 was different because Timmy and Ginobili were team first, and later on TP embracing that concept. I get the impression that Flagg would want to play alongside Wemby, but to be he will be overshadowed in his entire career, and hopefully that will be fine if the Spurs decided to trade for him. Nice topic to ponder..

[Dex]

If LeBowen's offer worked you'd make that trade 10 times out of 10..

I'm already on record that I think Flagg is overhyped, so...I wouldn't. But I could be wrong, and am obviously am not in charge of any decisions.

If the Spurs had gotten #1 then yes, you obviously draft him. But I'm not selling the farm and future prospects to move up one spot over him.

[Arguendo]

I'll go with a homer stance, but what's Flagg's generational talent trait? He looks like a surefire all-star without any real red flags (pun intended), but what's his S+ tier talent that would make him generational?
Doesn't have Lebron's athleticism, KD's scoring ability or nephew's hands/strength. I can definitely see a Pippen 2.0, but not the best player in the league, even if we exclude Wemby.

Meanwhile Harper's 70% at the rim that was just posted in that other topic is a generational attribute combined with his size and footwork.
Guards never get all-time great superstar labels in the draft.
SGA, Curry, Harden and got picked after inferior wings just because "can't teach size argument", Haliburton and Brunson are leading their teams, every elite team has elite ballhandlers who can create out of nothing.

I'm in the camp of he's not a generational talent today (as the youngest guy in the draft) the way Bron/Wemby/Zion where at draft. Think you're right that generational is way overused. He's 1/2 a tier down, clear #1 overall with obvious franchise potential. But if he played this last yr in HS, one more yr of hearing about him nightly, good chance he looks more generational next yr.

But his "generational trait" would be doing everything at a A/A+ level, his skillset is wide and deep.
Look at his advanced numbers, in what should have been his HS senior season, and where they'd rank in the NBA-
TS% .593 = 71st in NBA in 24-25', 51st outside of Centers
FTr .429 = 10th
ORB% 5.5 = 41st
DRB% 21.2 = 30th
TRB% 14.1 = 25th
Ast% 26.8 = 31st
STL% 2.8 = 5th
Blk% 4.9 = 9th
TOV% 11.5 = 82
USG% 30.9 = 11th

College numbers don't automatically translate, sometimes they're fluke #s or sometimes guys are older dominating 18 &19y/os or bad conferences. But FTr, Ast%, and TRB% often do translate, and Stock numbers have a good chance if your O can keep you on the floor. I don't think any of Flagg's numbers were flukey, top 4 conference, and he was at a massive age disadvantage.

126.3 ORtg, 89.5 DRtg. He was arguably best defensive player in college while carrying the load on O (#3 in DRtg behind a D specialist playing 20m/g and a Big West guy), #1 in O and D +/-. Splits of .48/.39/.84 while leading his freshman heavy team in every category to a Final 4.
And his age can't be overstated. He reportedly grew 1" between last yrs Hoop Summit and the Combine, coinflip if he's even done growing. He was the best college basketball player playing the first third his games before his 18th bday. Special. There's only one guy in the NBA with near that combo of Ast% and Stocks%...that's SGA and he doesn't board or block like Flagg.
Flagg doesn't score like him today, but he gets to the line like him and assists like him, may be a better 3pt shooter, and SGA didn't start finding his scoring grove until his 21y/o season. Flagg's got 2 yrs to start catching-up on that.

Flagg is a true 2-way guy and is an excellent creator for others and he's clearly not fully physically developed.
I would not be surprised if him and AD (stupidly assuming healthy) are the best 2-way combo in the entire NBA next yr, similar to how DRob and Timmy were in '98 Center ear but for this new switchable/position-less era.

But on draft night he still doesn't look as NBA defining as Bron, or Zion, or Wemby looked like they could be. That's generational, you define the generation, define what the NBA has to do to stop you.

[Arguendo]

To me Flagg is Rasheed with a better motor. He's not Dame shooting the three or Duncan on the block or Giannis facing up and bulling to the rim but he's a jack of all trades who has a lot of ways to attack efficiently. Same way Sheed was, so many tools. And Rasheed with a motor is terrifying.

Pippen looks like a much comp is better, he may have a lot of Rasheed skill-set, but his Ast% is more than double anything 'Sheed ever did. Actually higher than than anything Pippen ever did. PointForward level, better than Lamar Odom, but not at the LeBron/Luka/Joker level.
I think he's in the Pippen range on D (and drive/effort) but with more size/Rebs/Blocks/shooting and likely better passing. I think his D comp is in the Pippen/Kirilenko range with Tatum being a good O comp. Special and very young.

[kobyz]

I'm not so sure mavs not drafting Harper

[Arguendo]

They'll need to move PJ taking back less salary to get under that apron.
Agree, I didn't realize you could trade into the MLE now so that could really help Dal with salary.

That said, PJ is an expiring, so is Gafford, Klay is old, Naji is 28 and a 30% career guy. Max Christie is maybe their most valuable asset, your not getting a quality starting PG for PJ and Max Christie.
Losing PJ (or Gaff) just to shed salary is a step-back roster wise. Plus Minny needs a PG too, don't think Tyus takes a min deal again.
CP3 at min would really help either of those teams.

[Arguendo]

James Harden is a 36% career 3 point shooter. It’s not like trying to match Steph Curry.
You missed the point. Harden shoots a crazy high % of shots from 3 AND goes to the line for freebies better than anyone outside of Giannis and Butler.

Harden had a 5 yr run from '17-22' where he took more than 50% of his shots from 3 and went to the line on more than 50% of his shots. That's totally insane.
But he's sustained it, from '17 to now, an old Harden has taken more than 45% of his shots from 3 and goes to the line more than 45% of the time. Insane.
Curry's career yr at the line was 35%, only above 30% twice, 24% on his career. Harden was never been below 40%, above 50% 10 of 16 yrs, over 50% on his career..

Curry only shoots because he's the best ever, Harden only shoots OR drives AND goes to the line for freebies. Harden is the best ever at opening the court while getting to the line.

Free throws have a higher expected value than 3s. Getting to the line is the most value offensive tool in the NBA, at least in the regular season. It also directly limits the other teams D and players available.
Harden has scored over 8100 free points, Curry has scored less than 1/2 of that in the same number of yrs.
Free throws are valuable, Castle and Harper get to the line for free throws and accrue fouls, often on big D-fenders that then can't guard Wemby or the lane as tightly. That could prove to be Harper's most valuable NBA trait, a trait that often only 1st Ballot HOFers have.
That was my point.

[John B]

I'm not so sure mavs not drafting Harper

It’s a better fit for both clubs but Mavs fans would probably burn American Airline Arena. If ever they could trade down and get more picks or possibly Dylan + Giannis to Mavs, and Flagg to Spur, Bucks gets multiple 1st plus young players Vassell, Lively, etc. hopefully.

[dn0774]

You missed the point. Harden shoots a crazy high % of shots from 3 AND goes to the line for freebies better than anyone outside of Giannis and Butler.

Harden had a 5 yr run from '17-22' where he took more than 50% of his shots from 3 and went to the line on more than 50% of his shots. That's totally insane.
But he's sustained it, from '17 to now, an old Harden has taken more than 45% of his shots from 3 and goes to the line more than 45% of the time. Insane.
Curry's career yr at the line was 35%, only above 30% twice, 24% on his career. Harden was never been below 40%, above 50% 10 of 16 yrs, over 50% on his career..

Curry only shoots because he's the best ever, Harden only shoots OR drives AND goes to the line for freebies. Harden is the best ever at opening the court while getting to the line.

Free throws have a higher expected value than 3s. Getting to the line is the most value offensive tool in the NBA, at least in the regular season. It also directly limits the other teams D and players available.
Harden has scored over 8100 free points, Curry has scored less than 1/2 of that in the same number of yrs.
Free throws are valuable, Castle and Harper get to the line for free throws and accrue fouls, often on big D-fenders that then can't guard Wemby or the lane as tightly. That could prove to be Harper's most valuable NBA trait, a trait that often only 1st Ballot HOFers have.
That was my point.

Yo you convinced me, i'm in. Stack the team with foul merchants, new meta.

[Brazil]

free throws dont factor into efg%

u are right but point made remains valid nonetheless

[OldMan88]

Giving Wemby resting time during free throws would be a bonus. Both Castle & Harper will be drawing lots of fouls.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Yeah, 2nd all of this, both have franchise level upside but Flagg have more and an easier path.

The thing with Harden that I don't think people realize is he is very likely the best ever at getting to the line while taking tons of 3s.
Harden's career FTr is an absurd 51%, in the range with Giannis and Butler at 52% and 53%, but Giannis only takes 14% of his shoots from 3, while Jimmy only 19%. FTr and 3PAr are typically inverse, Wemby's FTr plummetted this yr bc his 3PAr highrocketed.
Harden's taken 47% of his shots from 3 and still goes to the line 51% of the time. That's insane. For reference, Shaqs FTr was 58% and a huge chunk of that was initial.

Where I'm really high on Castle (to maybe reach star) and now Harper (to maybe reach SS) is FTr, forcing the issue, drawing fouls, getting free points. Castle was at 38% FTr at UConn, translated to top 30 in all-nba last yr at 35%, #15 overall excluding part-time Cs who always dominate FTr.
Harper was at 42% at Rutgers, that's SGA level. And FTr tends to translate bc its a factor of play style and body control.
Between Fox, Castle and Harper Spurs guards are gonna draw a ton of fouls. All 3 could be top 50 in FTr and I almost expect top 30 for Castle and Harper. Excited.

Of course, Harden played his prime years during a period that the NBA was ridiculous in giving EVERY advantage to the offense and foul calls reached such a level that players stopped playing basketball and started playing "draw the foul". Harden was the maestro at this. I wonder how many of his free throws came off 3 point shots. The NBA is slowly returning to a more physical style and I believe FTr will decline across the board. While Harden still draws a ton of foul calls I don't believe anyone (even prime Harden) could achieve those numbers going forward.

[John B]

Of course, Harden played his prime years during a period that the NBA was ridiculous in giving EVERY advantage to the offense and foul calls reached such a level that players stopped playing basketball and started playing "draw the foul". Harden was the maestro at this. I wonder how many of his free throws came off 3 point shots. The NBA is slowly returning to a more physical style and I believe FTr will decline across the board. While Harden still draws a ton of foul calls I don't believe anyone (even prime Harden) could achieve those numbers going forward.

It depends on the star. Castle might get to that All-NBA caliber and he would get foul calls with all his hesi moves