Three Doors: Scenarios for Success

[Chinook]

(Dumb title, I know. But I have a couple of similar ideas I might make threads for, so I wanted a name to connect them all.)

With all the talk about a Giannis trade, I've been thinking a lot of opportunity cost and hypotheticals. Most of the folks advocating for the trade believe the Spurs should be willing to sacrifice future building blocks if it means taking the opportunity to open a real championship window immediately. Most of the folks against it believe the best opportunity to make a deal like that hasn't come yet,


The other day, I started thinking about that concept in terms of changes to the past rather than a decision for the future. Eventually, I sorted the idea into three different scenarios, which I thought I'd pose to the forum. Each of these makes a guarantee of sorts, and they each come with different benefits and risks. Hopefully, I'm able to make a poll so we can look at votes.


Scenario 1: The Spurs win another title during one of the 14 years they didn't win during Duncan's career. If this is your choice, what year would you choose? For me there are a few options:


Scenario 2: The Spurs enjoy the services of a completely healthy and drama-free Kawhi from 2016-2017 through 2018-2019. So Kawhi still walks to LAC in 2019, but in the meantime, there's no Uncle Dennis or degenerative knee condition.


Scenario 3: Wemby is guaranteed to spend his entire career in San Antonio. This is NOT with a guarantee of health like with Kawhi, but I'm not trying to "Monkey's Paw" this either. I'm assuming he's going to have a pretty normal amount of durability.


I think for me, I'd pick Scenario 1. It would have been really cool had they been able to go all the way in 2016. They were very close to winning a couple of those games against OKC, and I think they were a good match-up for the Warriors. That roster was crazy stacked too with David West, Andre Miller and awful Kevin Martin. It also could have changed the legacies or Durant, Lebron, Curry and Irving if the Spurs had beaten OKC, GS and CLE in Duncan's swan song.


At the same time, Peak Kawhi is arguably the second-best player to ever play for the Spurs (Wemby will hopefully take that crown, but it's not close to a guarantee), so getting his entire peak would have been amazing. The Spurs might've three-peated considering how the playoffs went those three seasons. Even if it's just one ring, those were also great teams. I would have definitely loved to see Rudy Gay get a ring with the Spurs.


Then of course, the third choice doesn't need much explanation. If you think Victor will be a legit GOAT candidate, then knowing you'll have him for his entire career would be an amazing relief. If you trust that Wright can figure out a way to get a supporting cast around Wemby for enough seasons, this may be the option that leads to the most titles. Plus, they're in the future, so we would have something to look forward to rather than just having a richer past.


But anyway, what do you all think?

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Without a doubt option 3. Mostly for the excitement ahead. I don’t know whether the Spurs would be able to create a 10 year title window for Wemby’s prime with this new CBA, and repeating certainly seems harder than ever but I’m very happy with the way things have turned out in terms of assets so there’s hope.

If I had to choose between the other 2 I’d take one and the year would be 2004 , so Timmy, Pop, Manu and TP would have a three peat on their resumes.

[lefty20]

Option 3 every day, and twice on Sundays.

[Guru of Nothing]

I'll take a remaining lifetime of lays over a fleeting memory of banging Britney Spears in her prime. Maybe you could sway me with psychedelics and Angie Dickinson ... send drugs first

[RC_Drunkford]

I'm taking the scenario that results in the most rings and that should be Victor playing his entire career here.

[Spursfanfromafar]

The past is only prelude. All that matters is the present and the future. Victor staying with the Spurs is the only logical option.

[SpursBills]

3
1 (2002 probably - denies Lakers 3-peat, Spurs get a repeat in 2003, Duncan 6 Kobe 4, etc. etc.)
2

[CGD]

Being greedy, but I would have liked the championship in 2004 to add a “three peat” to the legacy.

My second is Kawhi. I think the LMA/Leonard pairing could have been formidable in that stretch. Up until the Zara moment, you could tell we were the only team that really made Kerr/Warriors nervous. They really never went “through us” on their way to a championship, more “around us.” The Toronto championship adds fuel to this.

[CGD]

To me, the argument for going all in during this Wemby window is less the concern he leaves, but more one of injury/diminished capacity. We’ve simply never seen a human being of his profile do this.

[Chinook]

To me, the argument for going all in during this Wemby window is less the concern he leaves, but more one of injury/diminished capacity. We’ve simply never seen a human being of his profile do this.

Yeah, I hope that people aren't seriously concerned about him walking at this point. He's still years away from that really being a possibility. My push-back against the idea that Wemby may have a shortened career is that that wouldn't mean he's ready earlier. Let's say a normal superstar is ready at like year six and then is good enough through year 12 before dropping off for the last three to eight years. If Wemby is going to fall off by year nine, that means the Spurs have a three- or four-year window to win titles with him, not that you get the six- or seven-year window early. So it's critical that the Spurs put themselves in position to move VERY quickly when the time comes. That means they absolutely cannot trade a bunch of picks too early on for Giannis or Jaylen Brown (who doesn't even make sense anyway). If Wemby's going to have a long prime, then maybe there's time to work their way out of a bad trade. But if he doesn't, then they could be blowing their chances altogether.

[CGD]

^ For the record I dont think the Spurs are balls to the wall on a Giannis trade. Feels like, as with Fox, they want to be ready in case it gets nasty between the Buck/Giannis and they can come in with a respectable, but not over the top offer. But I dont think they'll get in a bidding war with Houston and Brooklyn for him.

[mo7888]

It's tough for me. I'll reluctantly take 3 over 1. If I take one I don't know what the team looks like now although it would be without Wemby in this scenario. Could we have a competitive team now if we rook #1? Could Flagg be our guy? Since I don't know I'll go wirh #3 and look forward.

[Seventyniner]

Show me a goat behind one door and I will switch my choice.

[Chinook]

Show me a goat behind one door and I will switch my choice.

I did mention Tim in Scenario 1...

[SpursFan86]

I’d pick option 3 just for the sake of it providing serious entertainment and enjoyment for the next decade (hopefully more), but option 1 is damn appealing too.

Imagine if we win in 2004 or 2006. Either one would mean Timmy has a 3-peat to his name and an insane 4 titles in 5 years run which is unprecedented in the modern era.

Could also pick 2013 to erase “it still hurts :cry“ and subtract a title from LeBron. Although I’d argue 2014 doesn’t have that same otherworldly level of elation if we don’t suffer through 2013.

[jsandiego]

Looking to the past, any additional year the Spurs win the title changes the landscape of the history of the league.

1998 - Rookie TD title gives him 6 rings, best rookie performance since Magic's Game 6 w/o Kareem, only star to beat Jordan and LeBron in the Finals. It means MJ and Scottie only get 5, and retribution for DRob on Rodman for ruining the 1995 run. In addition to 6 rings, you still have the argument they almost won in 2004, 2006, 2012, and 2013.

2000 OR 2002 - TD gets a repeat title and kobe/shaq lose a title. Shaq gets humiliated in his MVP season. Tim/kobe are 3-3 vs. each other. Still have the "almost won" years of 2004, 2006, 2012, and 2013.

2004 - Spurs get a 3-peat and we never hear of Fisher's 0.4 again. Tim 6 > Kobe 4 > Shaq 3. Pistons the big loser here as well.

2006 - Spurs get a 3-peat.

2008 - Spurs get a repeat, kobe 3-3 vs. Tim.

2009 or 2010 - kobe doesn't repeat, stays at 4 rings, 3-3 vs. Tim.

2011 - Manu doesn't break his arm and Dirk loses his ring. My least favorite option.

2012 - We were on a 20 game winning streak before losing 4 straight to OKC.

2013 - Avenge Ray Allen shot and we never hear about it again. Repeat against LeBron.

My initial thought was 2004, but I ultimately think I'd go with 1998. Rookie TD dominating the league from the start with back-to-back titles, beating MJ? This vaults him to GOAT debates now that Tim = 6, MJ = 5, LeBron = 4, Kareem = 5, Magic = 5. The landscape completely shifts.

[spurraider21]

i dont understand why 2 is an option. you want 2 more years of kawhi, vs a guaranteed title in scenario 1. spurs would have had to have gone b2b to justify that choice over #1. or 2 years of kawhi vs a guaranteed ~15+ years of wemby (with typical health... maybe 2-3 years where he is out of commission where it counts, generously)

the fun convo to me is... if going with scenario 1, which year? i do like the swan song idea of spurs ringing in 2016 as duncan moves on, but id much rather stack another one during duncan's prime. i think the best choices are 2000, 2002, and 2004. both of these give us at least a b2b (with 04 giving us a 3peat).

2000 - Lets Robinson win again while he was still an all-star/all-nba caliber player. give the twin towers a legitimate 2 year stretch of dominance. would have them go through the shaq/kobe lakers as well. duncan missed those playoffs with a knee injury, so undoing that would be worth

2002 - gives timmy another ring squarely in his prime, beating shaq/kobe lakers. that would be more impressive than 2000, as this would be dethroning the b2b champs while shaq was still peak. would make for back to back seasons of duncan winning both league mvp and finals mvp

2004 - gives us a 3peat, once again has us beating the lakers, and a much more memorable finals win against those pistons as opposed to the pacers/nets in the previous examples. this also lets parker/manu get additional rings. in my headcanon this happens beacuse the 0.4 shot doesnt happen, which also cements duncan's shot as one of the more iconic shots in team/league history. we will have knocked the lakers out in b2b runs, and would be the ones who broke up the shaq/lakers marriage. going through the lakers in 03 and 04, while beating the pistons in 04 and 05 en route to a b2b2b would be one of the greater runs in league history. but it would also be a 3peat on the heels of the lakers 3peat. my biggest knock on this one is that unlike 00 and 02, you arent taking a ring from the lakers :lol

i'd probably say 02

otherwise, id much rather rather add a ring in 2012 or 2013 than adding one in 06, 08, 09, etc. let the beautiful game spurs get another one against miami. 2012 run would have been insanely dominant. and 2013 would have us either undoing the ray allen shot, or having us come up clutch in a tight game 7 giving us b2b, so probably that one.

[Leetonidas]

Hard to pick against option 3 given it's the present and future. Option 1 is a close second. I would have loved for SA to repeat in 15 or win it all in 16. Would have a big impact on not only how Tim is perceived but also would change how both Curry or Lebron's careers are looked at

Kawhi is a distant third

[Chinook]

i dont understand why 2 is an option. you want 2 more years of kawhi, vs a guaranteed title in scenario 1. spurs would have had to have gone b2b to justify that choice over #1. or 2 years of kawhi vs a guaranteed ~15+ years of wemby (with typical health... maybe 2-3 years where he is out of commission where it counts, generously)

I would take three years of Peak Kawhi in perfect health and committed to winning in SA over three years of any player currently in the league. We're talking about trading the farm for Giannis, but Kawhi in his last healthy Spurs season was very close to Giannis during his peak (2018-2019 through 2020-2021), and he didn't have the holes in his game that Giannis did.

So the choice in my mind is between:

1) One guaranteed title

2) A guaranteed three-year stretch with a top-three player in the league with a championship-level roster already around him and in an NBA where we already know the competition.

3) Guarantee that Wemby will stay but uncertainty around his progression, his health, his teammates or how the league will evolve around him.

I picked 1 and would rest peacefully if I could have 3, but I think folks are sleeping on 2. I don't think it's out of the question for the Spurs to have run the table during that stretch. The crash after that would've been bad as Leonard walked and the vets fell off, but then again, crashing out is what the Spurs should have wanted, because it would have lead to a more acute rebuild versus the decomposition that happened because of the DeRozan trade.

[stnick2261]

We win the 2017 championship if nephew doesn't get injured, so I think that alone equals option #1. Good chance to repeat in 2018 as well.

Overall, I think the best outcome of those 3 options would be #3... a lifelong MVP caliber player to begin another long stretch of enjoyable games.

However, if you included a 4th option: Drafting Jokic in 2014 at #30 instead of Kyle Anderson (like I wanted at the time)... we could have had Nephew and Jokic both in their prime at the same time and never would have had the LMA/DDR down years. We could have extended the playoff streak to 28 seasons by now. (Most likely still able to draft Dejounte Murray in 2016 at #29)

[spurraider21]

I would take three years of Peak Kawhi in perfect health and committed to winning in SA over three years of any player currently in the league. We're talking about trading the farm for Giannis, but Kawhi in his last healthy Spurs season was very close to Giannis during his peak (2018-2019 through 2020-2021), and he didn't have the holes in his game that Giannis did.

So the choice in my mind is between:

1) One guaranteed title

2) A guaranteed three-year stretch with a top-three player in the league with a championship-level roster already around him and in an NBA where we already know the competition.

3) Guarantee that Wemby will stay but uncertainty around his progression, his health, his teammates or how the league will evolve around him.

I picked 1 and would rest peacefully if I could have 3, but I think folks are sleeping on 2. I don't think it's out of the question for the Spurs to have run the table during that stretch. The crash after that would've been bad as Leonard walked and the vets fell off, but then again, crashing out is what the Spurs should have wanted, because it would have lead to a more acute rebuild versus the decomposition that happened because of the DeRozan trade.
its really 2 years of kawhi you are adding (in addition to him not getting hurt in the WCF). its the 17-18 season he sandbagged, and then the 18-19 season he spent in toronto.

its obviously a great scenario but imo is not in the same ballpark as 1 or 3

[scott]

Is this some kind of trick where if we pick Option 1 or 2 it leads some success in the past, but it causes some kind of butterfly effect and we now live in some kind of post-apocalyptic wasteland?

Give me #3 please.

[LeBowen]

My biggest Spurs what if is the supposed Barkley trade that didn't happen because Terry Cummings busted his knee.
How many would've Chuck and Admiral won together?
We obviously wouldn't get Timmy.

[CorrectCrusader]

Scenario 4: Scenario 3 but Wemby becomes the GOAT.

[Dverde]

I’d pick Bryn Forbes passing Steph Curry for most three pointers

[RC_Drunkford]

My biggest Spurs what if is the supposed Barkley trade that didn't happen because Terry Cummings busted his knee.
How many would've Chuck and Admiral won together?
We obviously wouldn't get Timmy.

I still reminisce about Jermaine O‘Neal playing next to Tim

[KobesAchilles]

We win in 2006 and Tim gets a 3peat

[scott]

I still reminisce about Jermaine O‘Neal playing next to Tim

The Modern ST.com mind cannot comprehend the Jermaine O'Neal/Corey Maggette/Jason Kidd rumors back in the day. They made the #LauriThread look like child's play.

[Pauleta14]

The obvious answer in 3 because we don't live in the past.

However, I still haven't gotten over 2

[Dex]

Maybe recency bias, but I'm voting Wemby on this one.

One more ring for Timmy doesn't drastically change his legacy. Maybe a few more talking heads include him in the GOAT debate, but I still think they'd be taking Jordan or LeBron over him. He is still the best PF of All-Time and firmly in the Top 10.

Kawhi...eh. Maybe the Spurs win one more ring with him, maybe not. But he can fuck off with the way he handled his exit from San Antonio and I'm glad the Spurs aren't stuck paying huge money for him to rehab and/or under-perform in the playoffs for the last 5 years.

Wemby is the wildcard here, but if we can get 10 more years out of him (reasonably healthy) then he is the obvious answer. He could be our next Timmy...only time will tell.