Missing the 2026 playoffs would be a monumental failure for this franchise. Here is why

[spursistan]

You don't get giftwrapped the greatest NBA prospect since Lebron James (maybe ever) to be still "talking lottery" three years on. So much for the 'I'm glad he is going to the Spurs and not some poverty franchise" argument..

From a historical perspective..

Pre-Lebron Cavs season: (17-65)

Year 1 Lebron Cavs : (35-65) (+18 wins) (missed the playoffs)
Year 2 Lebron Cavs: (42-40) (+7 wins) (missed the playoffs)
Year 3 Lebron Cavs: (50-32) (+8 wins) (4th seed) (def. Wizards 4-2 R1; lost to Pistons 3-4 in ECSF)

Pre-Anthony Davis Pelicans season: (21-45)

Year 1 Anthony Davis Pelicans: (27-55) (+6 wins) (missed the playoffs)
Year 2 Anthony Davis Pelicans: (34-48) (+7 wins) (missed the playoffs)
Year 3 Anthony Davis Pelicans: (45-37) (+11 win) (8th seed) (lost 0-4 to Warriors in R1)

Pre-Doncic Mavs season: (24-58)

Year 1 Doncic Mavs: (33-49) (+9 wins) (missed the playoffs)
Year 2 Doncic Mavs*: (43-32) (+10 wins) (7th seed) (lost 2-4 to Clippers in R1)
Year 3 Doncic Mavs* : (42-30) (-1 wins)(5th seed) (lost 3-4 to Clippers in R1)

* (Covid season)

Pre-Wembanyama Spurs season: (22-60)

Year 1 Wembanyama Spurs: (22-60) (+0 wins) (missed the playoffs)
Year 2 Wembanyama Spurs: (34-48) (+12 wins) (missed the playoffs)


The reality is: it is starting to look extremely awkward from an organizational standpoint. If/when Flagg makes the playoffs before Wemby does, expect a complete change of tune vis-a-vis this franchise in the media and the podcast ecosystem. The chorus of "they are wasting Wemby" will only grow from there..

It is a massive upcoming season. And it is incumbent on RC Bufford and Bright Wright to feel the urgency of the situation..

[CorrectCrusader]

To be fair to last season Wemby had a freak medical incident.

[spurraider21]

To be fair to last season Wemby had a freak medical incident.
i dont think spurs were even in the top 10 in the west at the time he went down

[T Park]

Did LeBron or Anthony Davis miss the last 3 months of the season In Their second years?

[KingKev]

It is still very much so in the cards.

[CorrectCrusader]

i dont think spurs were even in the top 10 in the west at the time he went down

I believe we were in the race before wemby started feeling the effects of the blood clot (end of december) and this is also pre-fox.

[TimmyBuckets]

We were in the play-in race last year before he got injured but still wasn't a guarantee for playin. Close play-in last year for sure. They got better this year so play-in is where they'll likely land. Playoffs there's a chance, but they're not going to be guaranteed playoff team like a top 6. If they're 6th in the league it's an overachievement.

[RC_Drunkford]

well I think as presently constructed we're a play-in team, but not a surefire playoff team. The plan should be to get in the first round and lose a series.

People can say "oh we were a play-in team last year" all they want, the fact is that all the other teams in the west are getting better.

[Mr. Body]

I feel like people don't remember that Wembanyama missed like half the season.

[bdictjames]

I think the difference is the NBA was geared more or less towards the playstyle of those players when they essentially flourished.

Wemby, generational talent as he is, 7'5 who can shoot threes and block shots - is still playing a position that has been long touted to be a hard one to fit in the modern NBA. It's harder to build around Wemby, as it is around LeBron, Luka, Shai, or Steph. We'll see our front office can build the right pieces around him though, or maybe even have him as a 1B (realistically speaking).

[spurraider21]

Spurs were 21-25 with wemby last year

[spursistan]

It is still very much so in the cards.
Getting KD was probably the only move securing us an outright playoffs spot (5th-6th seed).Whatever else we're doing, it's going to be a 7th-10th placing. Looks like they are going to ride with that risk..

[DAF86]

And this is exactly what will happen if they don't start taking seriously the overall lack of shooting of the roster.

[CorrectCrusader]

Spurs were 21-25 with wemby last year

15-15 at Christmas which is where I consider the wemby sickness cutoff

[spurraider21]

15-15 at Christmas which is where I consider the wemby sickness cutoff
mitch already said that anything before the ASB would be "reaching" as it relates to the DVT

[CorrectCrusader]

mitch already said that anything before the ASB would be "reaching" as it relates to the DVT

We have eyes, we all saw what happened in january.

[spursistan]

Early West power rankings

TIER 1 (+55 wins)

1-OKC
2-Houston

TIER 2 (50-54 wins)

3-Denver
4- Minnesota

TIER 3 (45-49 wins)

5- Lakers
6- Warriors
7- Clippers

TIER 4 (40-44 wins)

8- Spurs
9-Dallas
10- Memphis

Tier 5 (Sub-40 wins Lottery)

11- Pelicans
12- Suns
13- Kings

Tier 6 (Sub-30 wins Lottery)

14- Blazers
15- Jazz


* Spurs path to higher seed is few injuries setbacks to the 2 old teams above them (Clippers/GSW)

[LeBowen]

Tier 3 teams are overrated with Lakers and Warriors being fundamentally flawed.
Unless major moves happen, I'd be disappointed if we finish below either.
Mavs and Grizzlies are easily better than those veteran teams.

[SpursFan86]

It definitely takes some squinting through rose-tinted homer glasses to get there but...

- Wemby stays healthy and takes leap forward becoming a legit top 5-10 player in the league.
- Fox shows that last year's medicore play was almost entirely related to his hand issues. He proves he's still a top 25-35 type guy in the league and the PnR game with Wemby is dominant.
- Castle takes a step forward in his sophomore season and a smaller, more natural role on offense allows his efficiency to jump + defense takes a step forward.
- Harper is as good as advertised and immediately comes in and helps out.
- Vassell actually looks like an efficient player with his smaller role + shows some of the defensive abilities people thought he had when he was drafted.
- Sochan somehow manages to be a respectable shooter from deep (35% on modest volume, doesn't hesitate every time he's left open).
- Kornet is one of the best backup bigs in the league and gives us 48 minutes of elite interior defense with Wemby.
- New coaching additions transform the team's strategy (particularly on defense with Sweeney/Williamson) and push us forward.

Now...all of those things happening simultaneously would probably have the same likelihood as me winning the lottery. That being said, something like 5 or 6 of the 8 bullet points I listed happening is a little more reasonable and would probably result in us being at least a 45ish win team and a legitimate playoff (not play-in) team.

I still don't love the FO's view of seemingly banking on all of the above rather than being a little more aggressive, but I can somewhat understand it. Just still holding out hope we make at least one other somewhat meaningful move.

[spursistan]

Tier 3 teams are overrated with Lakers and Warriors being fundamentally flawed.
Unless major moves happen, I'd be disappointed if we finish below either.
Mavs and Grizzlies are easily better than those veteran teams.
We've seen it in the playoffs. Warriors are always a Curry sprained ankle away from going on a 3-10 tailspin. Clippers are better built to manage Kawhi's unavailability. I think injuries will always play role when the margins are this thin in the middle of the conference..

[Mugen]

Tier 3 teams are overrated with Lakers and Warriors being fundamentally flawed.
Unless major moves happen, I'd be disappointed if we finish below either.
Mavs and Grizzlies are easily better than those veteran teams.

I don't think we're better than the Lakers/Warriors right now tbh. I'd have to see Wemby take another leap to start the year before I feel good about that call.

[Mugen]

Tier 1 - Playoff Locks
OKC
MIN
DEN
HOU

Tier 2 - Enough talent to get out of play in
Warriors
Lakers
Clippers
Mavs
Grizz

Tier 3 - Play In Contenders
Spurs
Blazers
Pelicans

It's just going to be another bloodbath in the West this year tbh.

[LeBowen]

I don't think we're better than the Lakers/Warriors right now tbh. I'd have to see Wemby take another leap to start the year before I feel good about that call.

Both teams have size issues with tier1/2/4 teams all having great frontcourts.
Every additional year for those 35+ veterans is another decline.

Obviously we haven't proven shit, but I like Mavs and even Grizzlies better than Warriors/Lakers.

[TimmyBuckets]

Tier 1 - Playoff Locks
OKC
MIN
DEN
HOU

Tier 2 - Enough talent to get out of play in
Warriors
Lakers
Clippers
Mavs
Grizz

Tier 3 - Play In Contenders
Spurs
Blazers
Pelicans

It's just going to be another bloodbath in the West this year tbh.

Mavs in Tier 3. No Kyrie this year. Rookie Cooper and injury-prone AD.

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

I'll be happy if spurs finish .500 regardless of where it puts them seedwise

[CorrectCrusader]

It definitely takes some squinting through rose-tinted homer glasses to get there but...

- Wemby stays healthy and takes leap forward becoming a legit top 5-10 player in the league....

Do y'all have the memory of a goldfish? Wemby was a top 3 player before January.

[scott]

Assuming health, missing the 2026 playoffs should result in the kind of firings this franchise has avoided since the 90s. Not sure anyone even knows how to do it.

[Rev Hill]

TBH, the Spurs have added 2 rookies (albeit talented rookies) via the draft (call that what you want- offseason; strategic, planning, etc) and a journeyman Center (who's increased his skillset over the last 2+ years). I would hardly call that an A offseason at this point. B at best.

Right or wrong, I exclude the draft from the full offseason scoreboard. With that said, the Spurs have added Kornet. That's it. That's not near enough to be legit playoff contender. There are still gaps on this team. Anxious to see what BW hopefully has up his sleeve.

[SpursBills]

Thunder/Rockets is going to be an absolute banger next year if they meet in the playoffs.

Rockets are going to miss like 60% of their shots and then rebound half those misses with their massive frontline against OKC's small wings.

[SpursFan86]

Do y'all have the memory of a goldfish? Wemby was a top 3 player before January.

Wemby was not better than Jokic/Giannis/SGA :lol And regardless, you're really going to nitpick that one statement? The point is Wemby proving himself as one of the true best players in the league for the whole season will go a long way in terms of this team having playoff aspirations or not.

[ace3g]

Jan 3, 2025.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GgbCkwVW4AAbVXc?format=jpg&name=medium

[spursistan]

Assuming health, missing the 2026 playoffs should result in the kind of firings this franchise has avoided since the 90s. Not sure anyone even knows how to do it.
I shudder at the prospect of Cooper Flagg making it to the post-season before Wemby does. The ensuing narratives are going to be extremely uncomfortable to say the least. The reality is KD was right there for the taking, but they chose to play with risk of Wemby being out for 2-3 weeks essentially costing them a play-in spot in this stupidly deep conference..

[LeBowen]

I shudder at the prospect of Cooper Flagg making it to the post-season before Wemby does. The ensuing narratives are going to be extremely uncomfortable to say the least. The reality is KD was right there for the taking, but they chose to play with risk of Wemby being out for 2-3 weeks essentially costing them a play-in spot in this stupidly deep conference..

He wasn't gettable without two unprotected FRPs because the Rockets included better players than we would have.

[spurraider21]

We have eyes, we all saw what happened in january.
no reports of shoulder pain going back to those months. if it was DVT related, the clot would happen in the extremity first, and then there would potentially be a pulmonary embolism which could affect breating/stamina

[vy65]

i dont think spurs were even in the top 10 in the west at the time he went down

They weren't. If memory serves, they were on a skid that got accentuated by the Fox trade.

[KobesAchilles]

Our playoff hopes depend on Sochan learning how to shoot the ball…

[exstatic]

Our playoff hopes depend on Sochan learning how to shoot the ball…
Our playoff hopes depend on Wemby being healthy and Fox bouncing back from his pinky injury. If both of those things happen, we are in. The other players incremental progress will determine if we get a high seed or not.

[poopbox]

I feel like people don't remember that Wembanyama missed like half the season.

Had a losing record and was the 10th seed with him playing.

[vy65]

I'll make the case why missing the play-offs and play-in is the most likely outcome. I'm somewhat optimistic and believe they'll be in the play-in games, but don't think they'll win them to advance to the playoffs. All of which is to say: using some combination of the friendship crew + draft capital to get talent could moot this entire conversation. And for those preaching "don't skip steps," you cannot have Wemby/Castle/Harper continue to watch the playoffs from home while Chet/Cooper/Amen get that experience.

Going in reverse order, these teams should not be expected to be in playoff/playin contention: Utah, New Orleans. That's it. And, there's a remote chance, but still a chance, that New Orleans is in playoff/playin contention if Zion remains healthy, DJM comes back, and Queen pans out. Don't think that's likely, so we'll keep them at the bottom rung.

Next tier: Sacramento, Portland, Phoenix, San Antonio, and Memphis.

I think Sacramento is clearly the worst of these 4 having not made any meaningful moves (lol Schroeder). Phoenix has Booker, who can be a top-10 player. I like the Maluach pick up for them. They have depth with the Mark Williams signing. They added some defense with Brooks. I'm low on Jalen Green and losing KD does hurt. But they do have talent. I'll be conservative and put them 12th in the conference. I'll put San Antonio at 11 because you can argue that Portland has more talent overall. I like them getting Jrue. I like them losing Ayton. Deni Avdija is playing his way into being an allstar. Scoot could level up. So could Clingan. And Sharpe too. They have an elite defender in Camara. Wemby is obviously better than anyone they have, but is Fox that much better than Avdija? Castle that much better than Camara? Factor in injury exposure, and it's not hard to see Portland ending up better than San Antonio, especially with the way the Blazers ended the season.

Memphis is interesting. Ja has been not great recently. They got rid of Bane. But JJJ is still a great player/former DPOY. Ja could return to form. GG Jackson and Edey could take a step. Coward could turn out to be the steal of the draft. There's a pathway there for them to have a (much) better season.

Next tier. Dallas, Lakers, Warriors, Clippers.

Dallas has the depth to sustain Kyrie being out all year. With Kyrie, they're a top 4 team. The Lakers have Lebron and Luka. The Warriors have Steph and Jimmy. The Clippers have Kawhi and Harden (and BroLo). Even with regression to the old guys due to age, they're super-stars who have consistently taken their teams to the playoffs. They have enough experience to offset regression due to age.

Next tier. Minnesota, Denver, Houston, OKC.

This is obvious.

[LeBowen]

I'll make the case why missing the play-offs and play-in is the most likely outcome. I'm somewhat optimistic and believe they'll be in the play-in games, but don't think they'll win them to advance to the playoffs. All of which is to say: using some combination of the friendship crew + draft capital to get talent could moot this entire conversation. And for those preaching "don't skip steps," you cannot have Wemby/Castle/Harper continue to watch the playoffs from home while Chet/Cooper/Amen get that experience.

Going in reverse order, these teams should not be expected to be in playoff/playin contention: Utah, New Orleans. That's it. And, there's a remote chance, but still a chance, that New Orleans is in playoff/playin contention if Zion remains healthy, DJM comes back, and Queen pans out. Don't think that's likely, so we'll keep them at the bottom rung.

Next tier: Sacramento, Portland, Phoenix, San Antonio, and Memphis.

I think Sacramento is clearly the worst of these 4 having not made any meaningful moves (lol Schroeder). Phoenix has Booker, who can be a top-10 player. I like the Maluach pick up for them. They have depth with the Mark Williams signing. They added some defense with Brooks. I'm low on Jalen Green and losing KD does hurt. But they do have talent. I'll be conservative and put them 12th in the conference. I'll put San Antonio at 11 because you can argue that Portland has more talent overall. I like them getting Jrue. I like them losing Ayton. Deni Avdija is playing his way into being an allstar. Scoot could level up. So could Clingan. And Sharpe too. They have an elite defender in Camara. Wemby is obviously better than anyone they have, but is Fox that much better than Avdija? Castle that much better than Camara? Factor in injury exposure, and it's not hard to see Portland ending up better than San Antonio, especially with the way the Blazers ended the season.

Memphis is interesting. Ja has been not great recently. They got rid of Bane. But JJJ is still a great player/former DPOY. Ja could return to form. GG Jackson and Edey could take a step. Coward could turn out to be the steal of the draft. There's a pathway there for them to have a (much) better season.

Next tier. Dallas, Lakers, Warriors, Clippers.

Dallas has the depth to sustain Kyrie being out all year. With Kyrie, they're a top 4 team. The Lakers have Lebron and Luka. The Warriors have Steph and Jimmy. The Clippers have Kawhi and Harden (and BroLo). Even with regression to the old guys due to age, they're super-stars who have consistently taken their teams to the playoffs. They have enough experience to offset regression due to age.

Next tier. Minnesota, Denver, Houston, OKC.

This is obvious.

Year 3 Wemby + Fox will be better than Lebron/Luka, Curry/Jimmy and nephew/Harden.

[timtonymanu]

For sure! A big test for the franchise here. They’ve been in no pressure situations since Nephew bailed and the players NOW need to perform to see if they’re worth keeping around. It’s great they got away from Pop when they did. He would have been the wrong coach with his nonchalant, “it’s just basketball” mentality for players like Harper and Bryant’s development. Now they have a young and hungrier coach and actual good coaching assistants.

Getting off of Keldon and Vassell’s contract will be even better. The team still really is far away from being a playoff threat. Right before Wemby went down for the season, we were losing games to the 12 win Hornets. So I’m not quite convinced we are penciled in for a playoff spot.

[exstatic]

For sure! A big test for the franchise here. They’ve been in no pressure situations since Nephew bailed and the players NOW need to perform to see if they’re worth keeping around. It’s great they got away from Pop when they did. He would have been the wrong coach with his nonchalant, “it’s just basketball” mentality for players like Harper and Bryant’s development. Now they have a young and hungrier coach and actual good coaching assistants.

Getting off of Keldon and Vassell’s contract will be even better. The team still really is far away from being a playoff threat. Right before Wemby went down for the season, we were losing games to the 12 win Hornets. So I’m not quite convinced we are penciled in for a playoff spot.

Something was clearly wrong with Wemby for the last month or so that he played. Just after new years, we were 18-16, and in spot #8. Then, the bottom fell out. He didn’t suddenly forget how to play, and the league didn’t suddenly figure him out, either.

[timtonymanu]

Something was clearly wrong with Wemby for the last month or so that he played. Just after new years, we were 18-16, and in spot #8. Then, the bottom fell out. He didn’t suddenly forget how to play, and the league didn’t suddenly figure him out, either.

Indeed and if anything is wrong with him, everything goes out the door! And everything I said before would be moot.

[SupremeGuy]

LMAO

Mitch, as long as he doesn't let poop auto-pen shit, will make this team a contender. Not play-in bullshit. Legit threat.

[Jordan Jackson]

Assuming health, missing the 2026 playoffs should result in the kind of firings this franchise has avoided since the 90s. Not sure anyone even knows how to do it.

If they miss the playoffs they have built in excuses that they’ve been leaning on. “No skipping steps” “brick by brick” “we’re following the OKC”’model by building a sustainable winner.

Pick one. But no one is getting fired. You can bet on that.

[SpursBills]

Didn't the spurs play a pretty soft schedule to start the year last year? I seem to remember being excited around new year's this past season with the Spurs record and then having cold water poured over my optimism when a couple posters pointed out that the schedule was pretty soft.

EDIT:
Now that I look back over it, it looks like as of 1/3 when the Spurs were 18-16, they had played 14 road games and 20 home games, and of the 18 wins, only 5 were to future playoff teams (HOU, MIN, OKC, LAC, DEN), so it's entirely possible that their true quality was not as good as their record suggested. Still, this was pre-Fox trade so I would expect the Spurs would be at minimum a play-in team and ideally more than that

[TimmyBuckets]

What makes this team a legit contender? Firmly in playoff is 6th seed and you're contending at that point. Guaranteed playoff seed is contention in my book. I just don't see this team there yet. I'm thinking 7th seed at best, with anything above that being cherry on top. If they're in 4th by end of the season, Mitch deserves COY.

[KobesAchilles]

Our playoff hopes depend on Wemby being healthy and Fox bouncing back from his pinky injury. If both of those things happen, we are in. The other players incremental progress will determine if we get a high seed or not.
You could be right. We could make the playoffs if we have strong seasons from both of them. I just think that even though Wemby covers up a lot of our flaws, he can’t cover for 2 weak positions and imo we are weak at the SF and PF positions. If Sochan learns how to shoot however then we are only weak with one position.

[poopbox]

If they miss the playoffs they have built in excuses that they’ve been leaning on. “No skipping steps” “brick by brick” “we’re following the OKC”’model by building a sustainable winner.

Pick one. But no one is getting fired. You can bet on that.

Well following the "okc model" means the spurs win between 40 and 57 games this year, cause this is around the time the players around SGA also started playing really well and OKC stepped on the gas.

[CorrectCrusader]

Wemby was not better than Jokic/Giannis/SGA :lol And regardless, you're really going to nitpick that one statement? The point is Wemby proving himself as one of the true best players in the league for the whole season will go a long way in terms of this team having playoff aspirations or not.

Wemby was above Giannis EPM by december by a pretty wide margin. You said top 5-10 player, I'm saying Wemby is already there and more.

[spursistan]

I would be extremely disappointed if the Spurs don't leapfrog the Grizzlies and position themselves early as the second best team in the Southwest division. Both JJJ and Edey are on course to miss the start of season.They lost Bane and Morant regression and in-and-out of lineup act has ruined whatever chemistry they're building..

https://x.com/JarenJJMuse/status/1940214287202664798

[ChumpDumper]

If everyone's healthy, this is a playoff team.

Easy.

[SpursFan86]

Wemby was above Giannis EPM by december by a pretty wide margin. You said top 5-10 player, I'm saying Wemby is already there and more.

Alright man, if you want to act like Wemby being a top 3 player in the league is some sort of foregone conclusion because of 2 months of EPM then be my guest :lol

I listed a bunch of things that could go right with the Spurs next year and help propel them into legitimate playoff team status. One of those things was Wemby staying healthy and playing like a top 5-10 player in the league consistently for the whole season. If you think he’s already done that or that that’s a given then we’ll agree to disagree.

[scott]

Alright man, if you want to act like Wemby being a top 3 player in the league is some sort of foregone conclusion because of 2 months of EPM then be my guest :lol

I listed a bunch of things that could go right with the Spurs next year and help propel them into legitimate playoff team status. One of those things was Wemby staying healthy and playing like a top 5-10 player in the league consistently for the whole season. If you think he’s already done that or that that’s a given then we’ll agree to disagree.

I like your list of things that have to go right. Like you said, not all of them need to happen - but the strong majority of them do, as the roster is currently constructed (with health being the top variable, IMO).

It will be interesting to see how quickly the Spurs FO reacts if some of those things don’t go right. For example, if Devin doesn’t adapt to a new role or Jeremy doesn’t show shooting improvement, will the Spurs be willing and able to quickly pivot, or will they continue to hope the leopard changes its spots and we just have to live with it? That will be a key driver in this whole thing.

[tbdog]

If Wemby is to 10 player, he was kinda getting there last year, then yeah.

[Ice009]

I like your list of things that have to go right. Like you said, not all of them need to happen - but the strong majority of them do, as the roster is currently constructed (with health being the top variable, IMO).

It will be interesting to see how quickly the Spurs FO reacts if some of those things don’t go right. For example, if Devin doesn’t adapt to a new role or Jeremy doesn’t show shooting improvement, will the Spurs be willing and able to quickly pivot, or will they continue to hope the leopard changes its spots and we just have to live with it? That will be a key driver in this whole thing.

Yeah, things have to go right with the roles of some of these players and how they fit on the team. If it doesn't, you're right, I hope the FO doesn't just sit around and pass up deals waiting until the end of the season and then they can't get any sort of deal for those guys. If it's not working or fitting, they might need to make some hard calls. The flipside is, if they do nothing, there is a chance it all comes together after the trade deadline, but it's going to be a gamble waiting if it's not working before then.

[ambchang]

Being a top 10 player isn’t that much of an indication now. Evan mobley and Brunson made all nba 2nd team, Mitchell 1st team. Put those guys on the spurs instead of wemby and I don’t see playoffs.

[FkLA]

Imagine dreaming about adding Harper and KD/Giannis all off-season only to end up with Harper, Carter, Kornet. This franchise always trying to go out of their way to be the smartest guy in the room. :td


9th best odds to win the West according to Vegas btw

[LeBowen]

Imagine dreaming about adding Harper and KD/Giannis

Well said.
Because adding Giannis/KD without losing Harper of Castle was just that, dreaming.

Or are you going to play dumb and think our charity case offer of #14+Vassell+Barnes was anywhere close to #10+Green+Brooks?

[Chomag]

I do agree that Wemby won't be very happy if he has to watch Flagg and Chet playing in the playoffs while he is on the sideline.

We will have to see how serious this FO is at gathering a competitive team around him but time is starting to tick

[poopbox]

I like your list of things that have to go right. Like you said, not all of them need to happen - but the strong majority of them do, as the roster is currently constructed (with health being the top variable, IMO).

It will be interesting to see how quickly the Spurs FO reacts if some of those things don’t go right. For example, if Devin doesn’t adapt to a new role or Jeremy doesn’t show shooting improvement, will the Spurs be willing and able to quickly pivot, or will they continue to hope the leopard changes its spots and we just have to live with it? That will be a key driver in this whole thing.

I mean the "reaction" would be trading the players but...who would want them?

When we got the number 2 pick, and it was stated we were taking Harper, I assumed teams would call about Devin. I assumed teams would be like "we know Harper going to start playing off ball at the 2 since you got Fox at the point, that means less minutes for Devin, so let's talk about a trade." Man I can't find one report where anybody has called the Spurs about Devin. Because who wants an inconsistent 2 guard who is also hurt quite a bit?

I've seen people propose a Collins for Devin trade, but why would Utah do that? They just got Sexton and Clarkson out of there and have signed no one in free agency. They went straight bpa in the draft. They are going full youth movement. What use do they have for a player at any position going into his 6th year with multiple years left on his contract? Can't think of any.

The type of player Keldon is, terrible defensive player who gets buckets off the bunch semi efficiently is getting completely phased out of the league. Teams would rather score by committee than to have some all offense no defense 6th man doing it solo.

I just don't see what teams trade for any members of the POF crew.

[TD 21]

Definitely. As I've said, presuming relative health, there's no more excuses. I don't want to hear about the (strong, but overrated) depth of the West or "not skipping steps".

Yeah, the fit is still suspect, but six seasons out, should have the fifth (Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, Antetokounmpo, Doncic) best player in the league, 48 minutes of good - great playmaking and rim protection, along with decent depth, while relying on only one borderline old player.

Only the Thunder, Nuggets, Rockets, Timberwolves and probably Clippers should be definitively better.

Maybe the Warriors (Horford expected) and/or Lakers (Ayton, Melton expected) can pull something unexpected out of their ass and join them, but the Mavericks still have a dearth of play making/shooting and the Grizzlies are already banged up on their frontline and somewhat in disarray.



- Wemby stays healthy and takes leap forward becoming a legit top 5-10 player in the league.

Unless Embiid makes a miraculous return to MVP form (good luck finding anyone who believes that), Wembanyama is already the fifth best player in the league behind the aforementioned four.

[spursistan]

Kyrie unlikely to play next season. AD already gone under the knife. Kidd lost his top 3 assistants this offseason (Sweeney, Dudley, Shammgod). Would be criminal if the Spurs finish behind this Mavs team in the West standings next season.


https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/1942635398829682772
https://x.com/Mavs_FFL/status/1941879308076654893

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

Retina oh shitttttt sorry AD

[RC_Drunkford]

Kyrie unlikely to play next season. AD already gone under the knife. Kidd lost his top 3 assistants this offseason (Sweeney, Dudley, Shammgod). Would be criminal if the Spurs finish behind this Mavs team in the West standings next season.


https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/1942635398829682772
https://x.com/Mavs_FFL/status/1941879308076654893

And their starting PG is D-Lo. I don't see the Mavs being better than the Spurs. Especially since Mr. Glass will miss more games as the season goes on.

[spurraider21]

Mavs still have a lot of depth. they are lacking the star power with Kyrie out, but its still a well built roster tbh

as a stopgap cheap starting PG, you could do way worse than DLo. AD is still a top 10-ish player (when he's out there, so yeah). But aside from that, all of Lively, Gafford, Washington, Flagg, Thompson, Christie are nice players. Naji Marshall is a fine rotation player. And then you add Cooper Flagg to all that.

[OldMan88]

That retina problem with AD is bad news. The long term chance of permanent blindness in that eye is pretty dramatic and could be caused by a rather insignificant blow to his head. He may or may not play again.

[TimmyBuckets]

Wemby was already a top 10 player no question. He'll be a top 5 player this upcoming season. If Fox is in form, that's already an incredible one-two punch. The rest is up to team defending the 3 and making shots. That's it. If that comes into play they'll make playoffs.

[tbdog]

In the last 6 months, Cissoko, Jones, Collins, CP3, Mamu, Bassey, Branham and Wesley are all gone. 8 players. And really only two (CP3 and Tre) are rotational players.

We have Fox, Harper, Kornet, and Onlynk are all rotational players. Fox obviously is much more than that. The point is, this is becoming a real team.

[tbdog]

That retina problem with AD is bad news. The long term chance of permanent blindness in that eye is pretty dramatic and could be caused by a rather insignificant blow to his head. He may or may not play again.

What's this news that I've missed.

[LeBowen]

With the additions of Kornet, Olynyk and McLaughlin it's obvious the goal is to compete.
Spurs wouldn't be getting veteran third stringers if there were no expectations to win right away.

240 minutes available, with not many players being guaranteed heavy minutes. I expect Harper and Castle to be guaranteed 20 to 25 minutes, but if they're not positive contributors on that given night, they won't be getting 30 or more.

Guaranteed minutes:
PG: Fox 33 / Harper 15
SG: Vassell 25 / Harper 5
SF: Castle 25 / Keldon 10 / Champagnie 5
PF: Barnes 20 / Sochan 15
C: Wemby 33 / Kornet 15

Wemby and Fox should be the only two players to have guaranteed 30+ minutes, everyone else needs to compete on nightly basis.
I'd like for Vassell to be down to 15 guaranteed minutes, but that won't happen.

Harper, Castle, Vassell and Barnes could get 30+ if they deserve it on that night.
Keldon and Champagnie could go up to 20, Sochan could go up to 30.
Olynyk will be a situational player used in certain matchups against teams with a lot of size.
Bryant will probably spend a lot of time in Austin, but I hope he'll start getting minutes in the second half of the season.

We don't need to go over weak links or our personal wishes again, we know that not having a legit PF is an issue, but this is the direction Wright has decided to go with Spurs roster building, at least for this upcoming season.
Hopefully we can get another Champagnie-like reclamation project down the road.

We have plenty of easily tradeable salaries if an opportunity to get an upgrade presents itself. Or if Spurs exceed expectations and are one or two players away from legit contention right away.