***** All Inclusive 2025 Election Night Thread *****

[Millennial_Messiah]

Quarter term election, so general discussions on VA/NJ state elections, some state and local elections nationwide, SA prop stuff, NYC mayor (Mamdani's gonna win), California proposition 50 (should be closer than polls think), general discussion thread for this.

Go Jack Ciattarelli. Kick her ass. It's going to be razor thin. Also go Jason Miyares, let's beat that homicidal terrorist wannabe Jones into submission.

[Winehole23]

is calling your opponent a terrorist normal now?

[koriwhat]

is calling your opponent a terrorist normal now?

How about Hitler? :lmao

[Winehole23]

How about Hitler? :lmaoThat's not my deal, comparing Trump to Hitler is passé

I think Trump is in his own category already

[ChumpDumper]

How about Hitler? :lmao

Take it up with JV Vance and Lil Marco.

[Winehole23]

Take it up with JV Vance and Lil Marco.the Vought/Miller/Rubio troika seems to be operating the unruly sock-puppet, but JD Vance plays footsie with real-deal neo-nazis

[ChumpDumper]

the Vought/Miller/Rubio troika seem to be operating the unruly sock-puppet, but JD Vance plays footsie with real-deal neo-nazis

I thought they were the ones who called Trump Hitler.

[Winehole23]

I thought they were the ones who called Trump Hitler.they did

but turns out, they like it

[Millennial_Messiah]

is calling your opponent a terrorist normal now?

He literally threatened to murder elected officials AND children. Calling children and unborn babies fascists and Nazis and saying they should die. He's not a human.

My predictions -

Spanberger (D) +6
Hashmi (D) +7
Miyares (R) +6
VA house of delegates - small D majority
VA state senate - small D majority, maybe status quo map


Ciattarelli (R) + 0.7%
NJ Attorney general - R + 1.5%
NJ state house - D majority
NJ state senate - D majority


Mamdani + 22%


California Proposition 50 (D) - Yes +7%
[please vote against it]


San Antonio elections:

-Prop A: Yes +11%
-Prop B: Yes +13%

[Winehole23]

I don't see anything about unborn children there

Sounds like he had a grudge against one guy, two years ago

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nsnkdpcf2div4vcgys2ceiak/bafkreigzdvaizfw4i4e4pz7qyo7s2i5vygtumelwjygcvxvac oe4yevz2a@jpeg

[Winehole23]

to be sure, saying stuff like that is politically damaging and should be

but that's a far cry from terrorism

[Millennial_Messiah]

Jack Ciattarelli is winning, tbh. :tu


Sears, Cuomo et al. have no chance though.

[SnakeBoy]

Jack Ciattarelli is winning, tbh. :tu


Sears, Cuomo et al. have no chance though.

Spanberger is weak and would be a great opportunity for the GOP but Sears is just a terrible candidate. Mamdani is great for the GOP, so that's a win. Don't know anything about Ciattarelli but a nailbiter in blue NJ doesn't bode well for the Dems no matter the outcome.

[SnakeBoy]

How did ya'll vote on the Texas props?

No on prop 15, yes on all others for me

[Winehole23]

same pattern in reverse for me

[SnakeBoy]

same pattern in reverse for me

Really, no on everything except the anti-vaxxer one...that's weird

[Winehole23]

I did not mean to be exact in my flip response to you

Got me

[Winehole23]

I didn't see an antivax measure, Prop 7?

[Winehole23]

https://tx.omniballot.us/sites/48453/default/app/sampleBallot/sample-ballot

[SnakeBoy]

Lib media has already started, if Dems win in blue cities & states...it's a referendum on Trump lol

[Winehole23]

Lib media has already started, if Dems win in blue cities & states...it's a referendum on Trump lolwhere do the people live?


The nation's urban population increased by 6.4% between 2010 and 2020 based on 2020 Census data and a change in the way urban areas are defined, according to the new list of urban areas (https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/12/29/2022-28286/2020-census-qualifying-urban-areas-and-final-criteria-clarifications) released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Despite the increase in the urban population, urban areas, defined as densely developed residential, commercial, and other nonresidential areas, now account for 80.0% of the U.S. population, down from 80.7% in 2010. This small decline was largely the result of changes to the criteria for defining urban areas implemented by the Census Bureau, including raising the minimum population threshold for qualification from 2,500 to 5,000. The rural population — the population in any areas outside of those classified as urban — increased as a percentage of the national population from 19.3% in 2010 to 20.0% in 2020.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/urban-rural-populations.html

[SnakeBoy]

I didn't see an antivax measure, Prop 7?

Prop 15 Parental Rights Amendment

[Winehole23]

Prop 15 Parental Rights AmendmentI did not vote for that

[Winehole23]

sorry, gassed out

goofed on the numeration

just assumed i voted the opposite of you, which is roughly correct

[SnakeBoy]

Sounds like you didn't vote...too busy monitoring a dead internet forum

[Winehole23]

uh huh

you're monitoring it too

:lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

Lib media has already started, if Dems win in blue cities & states...it's a referendum on Trump lol

I've been telling conservative people in NYC for months to vote for Cuomo because the mad red hatter guy has always had exactly zero chance.

But, Mamdani winning would probably be good for conservatives... best case is Mamdani wins AND Ciattarelli wins and tons of conservative people from NY move to NJ and flip that seat from light blue to pink rather quickly.... otherwise they'll just be moving to PA and NC which isn't a bad thing either.

[Winehole23]

I've been telling conservative people in NYC for months to vote for Cuomo because the mad red hatter guy has always had exactly zero chance.but Sliwa didn't withdraw

[Millennial_Messiah]

but Sliwa didn't withdraw

I've been calling for him to withdraw since springtime. He's literally a multi time loser for the same exact position. The definition of insanity is to do the exact same thing multiple times and expect different outcomes.

Adams did the right thing, but even he did probably a little too late. But Spoiler Sliwa is a dipshit and probably wants Mamdani to win by proxy because he loves the country more than NYC and he might have a point there. Because Mamdani victory could push more than half of NYC's conservative ~20-30% population into swing states like PA and NC that they're already moving to and have been since Covid and could cause a ripple effect in the electoral college that's anathema to Democrats. Could even be enough to make a difference in NC's senate race next year with Cooper vs Whatley.

If Ciattarelli wins, then NJ likely gets a lot of the Mamdani conservative NYC exodus boost. If not, PA and NC are likely the biggest destinations, since Florida is pretty much full and too expensive at this point.

[Millennial_Messiah]

He literally threatened to murder elected officials AND children. Calling children and unborn babies fascists and Nazis and saying they should die. He's not a human.

My predictions -

Spanberger (D) +6
Hashmi (D) +7
Miyares (R) +6
VA house of delegates - small D majority
VA state senate - small D majority, maybe status quo map


Ciattarelli (R) + 0.7%
NJ Attorney general - R + 1.5%
NJ state house - D majority
NJ state senate - D majority


Mamdani + 22%


California Proposition 50 (D) - Yes +7%
[please vote against it]


San Antonio elections:

-Prop A: Yes +11%
-Prop B: Yes +13%

I still like these predictions tbh. prop 50 is going to be a lot closer than the polls expect.

[Winehole23]

I still like these predictions tbh. prop 50 is going to be a lot closer than the polls expect.are you familiar with the track record of your predictions here?

[Winehole23]

you pour out the sweat of your life backing losers at a ratio approaching one

[SnakeBoy]

I've been telling conservative people in NYC for months to vote for Cuomo because the mad red hatter guy has always had exactly zero chance.

But, Mamdani winning would probably be good for conservatives... best case is Mamdani wins AND Ciattarelli wins and tons of conservative people from NY move to NJ and flip that seat from light blue to pink rather quickly.... otherwise they'll just be moving to PA and NC which isn't a bad thing either.

Mamdani win hands the GOP a ready made boogeyman. It energizes the left, sets the stage for deeper Democratic divides heading into '28. Hopefully another we wuz robbed:cry primary.

[Winehole23]

moar sweaty rationalizing

:lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

Mamdani win hands the GOP a ready made boogeyman. It energizes the left, sets the stage for deeper Democratic divides heading into '28. Hopefully another we wuz robbed:cry primary.

lots of reasons for the GOP optimistic about Mamdani victory, Cuomo is the status quo candidate.


are you familiar with the track record of your predictions here?
they missed -but not by a lot compared to others like Spurtacular and Chris- (i had 269-269) - in 2020 and were spot-on in 2021 and 2024, I think I had Rogers narrowly beating Slotkin by 0.1% and he lost by 0.1% or 19,000 votes...... else was pretty perfect.... nailed the McCormick narrow victory over Casey and no one else did....... your point?


DDHQ just called VA Gov for Spanberger, they're always first to call and have about a 99.2% accuracy track record, lowest of everyone but still, this early, it's likely she won close to or double digits

[SnakeBoy]

moar sweaty rationalizing

:lol

You don't want to talk about Dem party politics I know. Just waiting to do what your told.

[Winehole23]

Dems look to flip both statewide offices in Georgia

https://www.wjcl.com/article/georgia-election-results-public-service-commission/69080230

[Winehole23]

You don't want to talk about Dem party politics I know. Just waiting to do what your told.what do you want me to talk about? y'all getting creamed today?

[Winehole23]

early projection


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gvnnsnxmmmbqnduybhxpc25o/bafkreifzyo2on52h25556whlco3gmgyfkbgfvnemrn77wnpjr nqh3n7b4y@jpeg

[Winehole23]

Dems flipping 10 HoD seats in VA?

https://projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states/va/en-home.html

[Winehole23]

You don't want to talk about Dem party politics I know. Just waiting to do what your told.I think it's disdvantageous for Dems that Jeffries and Schumer both come from the insanely factional NY politics scene. They have a hard time seeing the national picture.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:36eqtmzysqf7wsslczw4uxcd/bafkreifqyb5nrp6p3jsr7kkyh7ajh7d2t4vd6qdnma2haj3qd tbdeo6v4e@jpeg

[Winehole23]

you were close on this one, M_M

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:snfeagonimg4aom2thvsorkp/bafkreifzrzeyjyqiteedxtpiervbi7zp3g37z4ao5b4bczc6o 2pddgfiv4@jpeg

[Winehole23]

every county in VA shifted blue relative to last year


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:movn6xzezospl7lnkhy7nzpt/bafkreicsucpmamw2gkvtetr7jkznu6fleego2boup6outzkec erlbjmty4@jpeg

[Winehole23]

Pennsylvania voters approved the retention of three state Supreme Court justices, NBC News projects, preserving Democrats’ 5-2 majority on the battleground state’s high court.


Justices Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht all survived an up-or-down vote to keep their seats on the bench. Dougherty and Wecht each won another 10-year term, while Donohue will serve until 2027, when she’ll reach the mandatory retirement age of 75 for justices.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/pennsylvania-supreme-court-vote-election-race-retains-justices-rcna238914

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:222rnvnta2lbl364bog2plxw/bafkreiaudsndsesq7wv5gpc2i2lj6fd7pz4hoho4lvfqgssft rw55vkd6i@jpeg

[Winehole23]

Cuomo got rinsed


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:5z65vn7dmzojjfxmdpchxyf4/bafkreihnsd36t43dfdylmvmqq4bpsafo5qnh3en4rhh4argnv b2mkwks2q@jpeg

[Winehole23]

if the trend holds, Dems will have 63 seats in the VA House of Delegates


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:3egflaufsw5agnaltvx4vlfy/bafkreib327jfa4welrij5e2cs5hpxqog7gm7yv6ofk52tpwnx leh2giahu@jpeg

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:y4bbj2ob5ayyt5nqkho7vuw6/bafkreic4kh6snilauc6arvudirbfyikcocp4je3eulnmnprr3 z6cr7ogem@jpeg

[Winehole23]

Earle-Sears should have focused more on kitchen-table issues. Bathroom bills and transphobia were perhaps too exotic and provincial for Virginia voters.

[DMX7]

Cuomo got rinsed


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:5z65vn7dmzojjfxmdpchxyf4/bafkreihnsd36t43dfdylmvmqq4bpsafo5qnh3en4rhh4argnv b2mkwks2q@jpeg

This is why I gave up on the Democrat party. Sad to say it -- I thought I would be a lifer.

[Winehole23]

This is why I gave up on the Democrat party. Sad to say it -- I thought I would be a lifer.bye

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nztbvvo2gl4227zuxjf7gog3/bafkreifns7bauknqdiievb4kfv2iurp2tkettnzgmnux4npaw nmk2klpp4@jpeg

[DMX7]

bye

Bye

[Spurs Homer]

This is why I gave up on the Democrat party. Sad to say it -- I thought I would be a lifer.

what a snowflake…

whaaa whaaaa…why do the ultra rich have to pay 1 percent more!

[Winehole23]

better take away Trump's phone for a little while


https://media3.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbnZvYm11azdoNDdybTIyMDlyejNqdjd pZ2h5MjVlenhiZG81aGN5OSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfY nlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/ZZO4GlQRTD7J4BHtRG/giphy.gif

[Winehole23]

Dems look to flip both statewide offices in Georgia

https://www.wjcl.com/article/georgia-election-results-public-service-commission/69080230first Democratic wins for statewide office in Georgia since 2006

[Winehole23]

Jack Ciattarelli is winning, tbh. :tuSherrill up by 13 points with 78% counted

https://election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2025-11-04/states/New%20Jersey

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:cijxbu6xk3niyxvrrmedpgiv/bafkreiahowbioogagfvf2x357lkxg2uwdmk3cb76bjiejkxrv 6im4ywrny@jpeg

[DarrinS]

Congrats?

[Winehole23]

hope he can afford the bodyguards



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:6guagmhjwdanmotimn45j3pq/bafkreihwzgzsi7go3mufg7u6fx3hk63ooxmosqgjjydf6nwad 7wye5luvy@jpeg

[ChumpDumper]

This is why I gave up on the Democrat party. Sad to say it -- I thought I would be a lifer.

:lol weren't you a Berniebro?

What's wrong with this guy?

[Winehole23]

Congrats?Suburbs moving 5-10% for Dems nationally would be electoral armageddon for Rs in 2026. That's what happened in VA and NJ today.

[DMX7]

:lol weren't you a Berniebro?

lol, no.

I found Bernie to be better than Hillary -- which isn't saying much other than the state of the Democrat party.

[GAustex]

What’s the hold up on Q?
Corrupt Travis County finger on the scales?

[ChumpDumper]

lol, no.

I found Bernie to be better than Hillary -- which isn't saying much other than the state of the Democrat party.
So what's wrong with this guy?

[ChumpDumper]

What’s the hold up on Q?
Corrupt Travis County finger on the scales?

:lol any election you don't win is rigged, eh?

[Millennial_Messiah]

Sherrill up by 13 points with 78% counted

https://election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2025-11-04/states/New%20Jersey
yeah, that and especially the terrorist Jay Jones result was very unexpected

I mean I thought Sherrill could win, like close to a coin flip, but nobody even on the left expected her to win by near double digits

the GOP really didn't turn out..... this Groyper movement is a problem, lots of infighting within the GOP since Charlie Kirk was murdered.


Suburbs moving 5-10% for Dems nationally would be electoral armageddon for Rs in 2026. That's what happened in VA and NJ today.
East coast government bureaucrats don't represent suburbs in the rust belt or the southwest or even NC, and the left is pretty maxed out in the Atlanta suburbs too tbh...


What’s the hold up on Q?
Corrupt Travis County finger on the scales?
Tragic County has been fucked longer than any other county in Texas. I'd suggest moving at least to Williamson or something.

[Winehole23]

Williamson County is purple, believe it or not


President/Vice-President


Donald J. Trump / JD Vance (REP): 154,853 votes (50.21%)
Kamala D. Harris / Tim Walz (DEM): 147,171 votes (47.71%)
Chase Oliver / Mike Ter Maat (LIB): 2,541 votes (0.82%)
Jill Stein / Rudolph Ware (GRN): 2,527 votes (0.82%)
Write-in: 1,349 votes (0.44%)

U.S. Senator


Ted Cruz (REP): 146,024 votes (47.85%)
Colin Allred (DEM): 150,489 votes (49.32%)
Ted Brown (LIB): 8,384 votes (2.75%)
Write-in: 245 votes (0.08%)

[Millennial_Messiah]

speaking of NC, thousands of conservatives have already pledged to move there from VA over protesting the Jay Jones vote, and probably many more on the way

Whatley for Senate.


Williamson County is purple, believe it or not
well yeah, and I think IIRC it narrowly went Biden in 2020, tons of Austin liberals have been priced out of Austin and into Round Rock, but at least the county as a whole still has common sense and isn't an echo chamber.

[ChumpDumper]

speaking of NC, thousands of conservatives have already pledged to move there from VA over protesting the Jay Jones vote, and probably many more on the wayOK

[Millennial_Messiah]

OK

NC is going to see floods of conservatives relocating inbound over the upcoming few months, between the rich New Yorkers fleeing the Zohran-pocalypse and pissed off Virginians who, rightfully, can't stand that the DC metro has completely taken over their once reliably red confederate state.

The thing with Florida is that Florida is pretty much full and too expensive at this point, and given the geology there there really isn't that much more room for Florida to grow and build physically. Those who missed their chance to move to Florida over COVID are probably looking at waitlists to get a home in Florida, and 1/3 of the price to get a house right away in NC, which has plenty of spare land and property. If anything those suburbs trend red pretty heavily. The western red appalachian parts of Virginia likely bleed population to NC when it's a convenient move, too.

First TX, then FL, then NC, conservatives are building their coalition one state at a time, we don't need no stinkin' Virginia or New Jersey or New York to win national elections. Arizona probably isn't moving back left any time fast after zooming right off a cliff between 2020 and 2024.

If the GOP can lock down Pennsylvania it's a lost cause for the Democrats to win President ever again.

[Winehole23]

yeah, that and especially the terrorist Jay Jones result was very unexpected

I mean I thought Sherrill could win, like close to a coin flip, but nobody even on the left expected her to win by near double digits

the GOP really didn't turn out..... this Groyper movement is a problem, lots of infighting within the GOP since Charlie Kirk was murdered.That's called an enthusiasm gap.


East coast government bureaucrats don't represent suburbs in the rust belt or the southwest or even NC, and the left is pretty maxed out in the Atlanta suburbs too tbh...I think you might be underestimating the negative effects of another year of Republican misrule. A five percent movement overall will flip Republican majorities in both bodies in 2026.

[ChumpDumper]

NC is going to see floods of conservatives relocating inbound over the upcoming few months, between the rich New Yorkers fleeing the Zohran-pocalypse and pissed off Virginians who, rightfully, can't stand that the DC metro has completely taken over their once reliably red confederate state.How many millions?

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2qwpeisxhznwdjfylihurdp4/bafkreie5jk6cnk4muoynbxqiakccrztgpdj7cldcrqcdpigrf vvjcpr3dm@jpeg

[Winehole23]

Bill Ackman bends the knee


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ynhvprwsjim3ttkefxsttf7y/bafkreietatv4xlhabwhgxxsh3xnmlqy6ona7xgssun6vvgs4i f3n4vgzqi@jpeg

[Millennial_Messiah]

That's called an enthusiasm gap.

I think you might be underestimating the negative effects of another year of Republican misrule. A five percent movement overall will flip Republican majorities in both bodies in 2026.
:lol

you clearly don't know how the Senate works and polarization. 24 states voted for Trump by 13% or more, they aren't in danger of flipping blue at any federal level state-wide. In 2026 your very very best case is winning NC and holding GA and MI and none of those are a better than 50% shot. Well, maybe GA is if they nominate someone stupid again like in 2022. But you're also playing defense in open seats like NH which was narrower than you thought in 2016 and 2024. And all of that only gets you to a 48-seat minority. You think Maine's going to flip? It's not, they have ranked choice voting which favors the incumbent, and she's a very popular and powerful incumbent, even if she does have a moderate voting record (by design and necessity) but even if somehow you did take out Collins you're only up to 49 seats and that's still an unlikely inside straight.

As far as the House goes, it will literally come down to gerrymandering wars on both sides and how courts especially the supreme court rule on issues like the voting rights act section 2, and that doesn't look good for the Democrats, but good news for Democrats is as of tonight with a blue state trifecta in VA you're probably going to get to draw out 2 Republicans if the state court there allows for it, which isn't a guarantee given about half the VA state supreme court is Republican appointed.

California Prop. 50 I'm expecting will pass tonight, and the CA Dems and Newsom are expected to draw out 4-5 Republicans there. But if VRA section II is gutted then the confederate state GOP will be ruthless everywhere except Georgia because Kemp is spineless. The House is a pure toss up and really depends right now on the maps.


How many millions?
Eh maybe 250k-400k, which would easily make the state reliably dark pink to red, given that Trump won the state by an average of 200k votes across all three elections anyway

Whatley would edge out Cooper even in a blue wave (say D+5) environment hypothetically in 2026


no, you're underestimating the people. the same kind of thermostatic reaction to inflation and Biden's senility could happen to trump and Republicans in 2026.

Culture wars have ruined the Democrats' voter edge with moderates they had in 2008 and the Obama era. Inflation and Biden's senility had little effect on the 2022 midterms, in fact the Dems did just fine. Again the house will depend on the maps but even say a D+5 national environment in 2026 similar to 2018, won't win them more than a cap of 48 senate seats. Heck, in 2018 the Ds in a blue wave year LOST net Senate seats because of post-Obama polarization that legacy red state blue senators could not overcome. Senate elections are very federalized, this isn't the Reagan era or even the 2000s, blue senate candidates don't win in deep red states and red senate candidates don't win in deep blue states, if the Scott Brown Massachusetts race were held even in a R-favorable year like 2021 instead of 2009 then he'd lose by 20% because the race would be hyper-nationalized.


turning gerrymanders into dummymanders.
there's a possibility there could be some dummymandering in both directions in the House but it's very improbable to flip a Trump+15 or Biden+15 seat in any case, and that does nothing to back up your ignorant Senate argument.


He's not moving to North Carolina?
:lmao of course not, he's a liberal secular Ashkenazi Jewish Democrat, he supported Cuomo all the way. Far from a conservative. He and other Wall Street hedge fund jewish types are probably scared of Mamdani, which is funny.


"young men are MAGA voters"
state to state thing, but east coast bureaucrats and their friends/families regardless of age are very likely to vote blue

VA/NJ is not Arizona or Michigan or Wisconsin.


1985915075895369980

https://x.com/Timodc/status/1985915075895369980
nothing to do with Spanberger, she was always going to win, Sears was an atrociously incompetent challenger.

Everything to do with pedo-homicidal maniac Jay Jones.

[Winehole23]

the big money and the legacy media, so out of touch with the people

[Winehole23]

:lol

you clearly don't know how the Senate works and polarization. 24 states voted for Trump by 13% or more, they aren't in danger of flipping blue at any federal level state-wide. In 2026 your very very best case is winning NC and holding GA and MI and none of those are a better than 50% shot. Well, maybe GA is if they nominate someone stupid again like in 2022. But you're also playing defense in open seats like NH which was narrower than you thought in 2016 and 2024. And all of that only gets you to a 48-seat minority. You think Maine's going to flip? It's not, they have ranked choice voting which favors the incumbent, and she's a very popular and powerful incumbent, even if she does have a moderate voting record (by design and necessity) but even if somehow you did take out Collins you're only up to 49 seats and that's still an unlikely inside straight.

As far as the House goes, it will literally come down to gerrymandering wars on both sides and how courts especially the supreme court rule on issues like the voting rights act section 2, and that doesn't look good for the Democrats, but good news for Democrats is as of tonight with a blue state trifecta in VA you're probably going to get to draw out 2 Republicans if the state court there allows for it, which isn't a guarantee given about half the VA state supreme court is Republican appointed.

California Prop. 50 I'm expecting will pass tonight, and the CA Dems and Newsom are expected to draw out 4-5 Republicans there. But if VRA section II is gutted then the confederate state GOP will be ruthless everywhere except Georgia because Kemp is spineless. The House is a pure toss up and really depends right now on the maps.No, I still think you're underestimating the people. The same kind of thermostatic reaction to inflation and Biden's senility in 2024 could happen to Trump and Republicans in 2026, turning gerrymanders into dummymanders.

[Winehole23]

"young men are MAGA voters"


Spanberger wins men 18-29 by 14%, Sherrill by 10%, and Mamdani by a stunning 40%.

[ChumpDumper]

Bill Ackman bends the knee


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ynhvprwsjim3ttkefxsttf7y/bafkreietatv4xlhabwhgxxsh3xnmlqy6ona7xgssun6vvgs4i f3n4vgzqi@jpeg

He's not moving to North Carolina?

[ChumpDumper]

1985915075895369980

https://x.com/Timodc/status/1985915075895369980

[SnakeBoy]

bye

You became an old, scared Democrat :lol


I consider myself (sort of) a whig, in both American and British senses.

There is no political party that suits me that I am aware of. The LP-USA is run by crackpots and nitwits. I respect the Constitution Party, but their emphasis on Christianity is a wrong turn IMO.

I'm basically a political fossil. I don't really see that changing.

[Winehole23]

You became an old, scared Democrat :lolThe world changed, so did I

I feel optimistic, you guys are all sweaty tonight

:lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

The world changed, so did I

I feel optimistic, you guys are all sweaty tonight

:lol

it's too bad you flipped, because your take on the Constitution Party minus shitass christianity was actually pretty based :lol

heck, the current GOP and their consistent bible thumping and jacking off to Israel pisses me the fuck off, but they're still far less evil than the other side.

[Winehole23]

it's too bad you flipped, because your take on the Constitution Party minus shitass christianity was actually pretty based :lolit's not 2010 anymore

[Winehole23]

lol deflecting from the L by talking about me

[Millennial_Messiah]

it's not 2010 anymore

you act like the tea party which was essentially the same thing as maga just less organized around a central strongman, wasn't a thing in 2010 :lol


lol deflecting from the L by talking about me
most of these Ls were expected, the post-election year is always a blue map for the most part.

i'd like to know what went through the brain-rotted minds of anyone who voted for Youngkin in 2021 and also voted for Jay Jones in 2025..... since the biggest topic of 2021 was "it's about the kids".

[Winehole23]

you act like the tea party which was essentially the same thing as maga just less organized around a central strongman, wasn't a thing in 2010 :lolAstroturfed, media darlings, never a mass movement

Taxes were a fig leaf for being racist clowns, definite similarity with MAGA in that respect

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ojwszrpcvhwuhl4nhwactd2y/bafkreiaikzszl3cdgodjsxqn527ctwxjc7qnb4zrnvmg266r3 u7vns26me@jpeg

[Winehole23]

Trump crying hard


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ep4zjgwunggbrulratfpfj7h/bafkreigsl7doy3wtpk34mtvb34xtdosgmfdhbtsqdutnflola wclnbu7v4@jpeg

[Winehole23]

if the trend holds, Dems will have 63 seats in the VA House of Delegates


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:3egflaufsw5agnaltvx4vlfy/bafkreib327jfa4welrij5e2cs5hpxqog7gm7yv6ofk52tpwnx leh2giahu@jpegIn 2017, the Virginia House of Delegates was 34 D/66 R.

[GAustex]

Marxist city council and commie major posturing that q went down.

[Winehole23]

Marxist city council and commie major posturing that q went down.unsurprising in an off-year election with no major candidates on the ballot, but honestly even in a national election year something like that might not pass

[GAustex]

unsurprising in an off-year election with no major candidates on the ballot

It’s rare c of a turns down a tax increase

I do not recall it happening

[GAustex]

C of a is way out of the norm in per cap tax rate in God Bless Texas

[DarrinS]

Good luck NYC

[DarrinS]

Over 2M already left there, but I'm sure under this new leadership all will be fine

[Winehole23]

C of a is way out of the norm in per cap tax rate in God Bless TexasStands to reason, Travis County has been growing fast for 40 years at least

[Winehole23]

Over 2M already left there, but I'm sure under this new leadership all will be fineover what time span?

[ChumpDumper]

most of these Ls were expectedYou were wrong on about half the statewide races

[SnakeBoy]

it's too bad you flipped, because your take on the Constitution Party minus shitass christianity was actually pretty based :lol


He used to have some pretty solid takes even if I generally disagreed with him on the bigger picture. Weird thing is he spent the Biden years crying continuity not change and now he's just vote blue no matter who. TDS is a powerful drug.

[Winehole23]

Dems reportedly broke the GOP supermajority in the Mississippi Senate in special elections today

[DarrinS]

over what time span?

And nearly 1M prepared to leave.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/nearly-1m-new-yorkers-prepare-to-flee-if-mamdani-wins-election/ar-AA1PIDJR

[SnakeBoy]

The world changed, so did I

I feel optimistic, you guys are all sweaty tonight

:lol

You'll be back to crying about the end of the world tomorrow

pretend W's are short lived

1,172 days remaining

[Winehole23]

Turns out bigotry, incompetence and shrill transphobia aren't all that popular in the short run


Bucks County, Pennsylvania, was ground zero for the conservative takeover of school boards & anti-LGBTQ policies in 2021, on the Central Bucks and Pennridge boards.

Dems flipped both boards back in 2023.

Tonight, Dems have ousted *all* Republicans from both school boards.

[DarrinS]

Turns out bigotry, incompetence and shrill transphobia aren't all that popular in the short run

Nah, just. Get the fuck out

[Winehole23]

You'll be back to crying about the end of the world tomorrow

pretend W's are short lived

1,172 days remainingI don't think the world is ending

I think y'all are losing badly right now

How much of the next three years you spend continuing to lose is partly up to y'all, and partly on the sufferance of voters

[Winehole23]

Nah, just. Get the fuck outGo tell Bucks and Pennridge, I didn't do anything

[SnakeBoy]

And nearly 1M prepared to leave.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/nearly-1m-new-yorkers-prepare-to-flee-if-mamdani-wins-election/ar-AA1PIDJR

Those that can afford it have already begun


As Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani surges ahead in New York City’s mayoral race, residents are racing to secure homes in the leafy, affluent enclaves of Connecticut and Westchester County — driven by anxieties over potential policy shifts that could reshape the city’s economic and social fabric.

Real-estate brokers in these suburban markets report a frenzy reminiscent of the early pandemic exodus, with properties vanishing in days amid fierce competition and all-cash deals that push prices far beyond expectations.

In Greenwich, long home to the well-heeled, available listings have dwindled to historic lows, hovering around 117 from more than 800 a few years earlier. It has fueled intense rivalries even for multimillion-dollar estates.

https://nypost.com/2025/10/29/real-estate/nyc-buyers-are-fleeing-amid-fears-of-a-mamdani-win/

[Winehole23]

He used to have some pretty solid takes even if I generally disagreed with him on the bigger picture. Weird thing is he spent the Biden years crying continuity not change and now he's just vote blue no matter who.taking down Trump's criminal fascist regime is more important than anything right now, so yeah

[Winehole23]

And nearly 1M prepared to leave.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/nearly-1m-new-yorkers-prepare-to-flee-if-mamdani-wins-election/ar-AA1PIDJR"nobody wants to live in NYC" :cry

[DarrinS]

"nobody wants to live in NYC" :cry

Would you?

[Winehole23]

Would you?If I could afford it, sure. i do have family there.

One of the safest big cities in the world, unparalleled availability of culture and business opportunities

[DarrinS]

I guess were going to see how awesome NYC is going to become

[Winehole23]

Trump was 27 points underwater with Hispanics as of last month (https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/donald-trump-approval-october-2025#race)


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ltjrnyaxxua6bstlgayvu4j7/bafkreifvy37erdlofyrnrbaylgjkeuhihwoo6kwk3svcpy7y5 r6qcm2rze@jpeghttps://www.npr.org/2025/08/29/nx-s1-5512661/a-newly-approved-redistricting-plan-will-test-the-texas-gops-reach-with-latinos

[Winehole23]

I guess were going to see how awesome NYC is going to becomeNYC is going to be fine

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ftuhmc4ivc4usf7qkx5sp4r7/bafkreihrzdebrrpjfhqdl27mhfwlz72knc36xrevx476jzwym 2g23jl4xy@jpeg

[DarrinS]

NYC is going to be fine

I'm sure

[Winehole23]

Texas Republicans melting down


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:nabpxh57dor5jlxw6cyxfpog/bafkreifjy7szh556znq7gpze7n6mltlq5mr64i2sd4rtaqfgc qhpxkfyru@jpeg

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:nabpxh57dor5jlxw6cyxfpog/bafkreifblvbnyddteznntor7a5dkqw4ta3ne3jp3jgtoae65d 3frsqm4fa@jpeg

[Winehole23]

I'm surewhy wouldn't it be?

it has already survived a succession of horrible mayors this century

[DarrinS]

I'm moving to Utah, so the libs can implode. Don't care

[Winehole23]

I'm moving to Utah, so the libs can implode. Don't carebon voyage

[DarrinS]

Yeah, they've had horrible democrat mayors.

[Winehole23]

I hear it's beautiful country in Utah

[DarrinS]

bon voyage

Cool. Thanks

[ChumpDumper]

And nearly 1M prepared to leave.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/nearly-1m-new-yorkers-prepare-to-flee-if-mamdani-wins-election/ar-AA1PIDJR
:lolK

[Winehole23]

Republicans filling their pants at the prospect of democracy

:lol


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:oe5k5kgdudinkw6jpzzfcw4q/bafkreibkqhaybfxt3gpdfzpduqyep5tjxquimdmg7nc2o32hu cruu3lavi@jpeg

[DarrinS]

Cartoon character. At least I don't live there.

[ChumpDumper]

Cartoon character. At least I don't live there.

Trump is indeed a cartoon character. At least I don't worship him.

[GAustex]

Republicans filling their pants at the prospect of democracy

:lol


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:oe5k5kgdudinkw6jpzzfcw4q/bafkreibkqhaybfxt3gpdfzpduqyep5tjxquimdmg7nc2o32hu cruu3lavi@jpeg

Get rid of 60 vote thing?

[Winehole23]

Virginia last had 60 Democratic delegates in 1989

They ended up with 64 today, a thirteen seat swing and a supermajority (3/5th in VA)

[Winehole23]

Get rid of 60 vote thing?are you ready for majority rule when you lose next year?

because getting rid of the 60 vote thing pretty much guarantees that outcome

[DarrinS]

Trump is indeed a cartoon character. At least I don't worship him.

Cool story

[Winehole23]

Dems just won a supermajority in the NJ Assembly

[ChumpDumper]

Cool story

As cool as your NYC exodus fantasy.

You're extremely bitter tonight.

[DarrinS]

How about this? Fuck your side and your dumb ideas.

ACA subsidies? Why didn't you do that when you had power?

[ChumpDumper]

How about this? Fuck your side and your dumb ideas.

ACA subsidies? Why didn't you do that when you had power?
:lol that's when they were done.

Why did you end them?

[Winehole23]

nervous and sweaty


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ilyxejcmhg2qwqomgu2umi5v/bafkreihaly2kldenue2ew2ov6xweeri7lfdltiicy7gqts6cq y6qmbdeum@jpeg

[ChumpDumper]

nervous and sweaty


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ilyxejcmhg2qwqomgu2umi5v/bafkreihaly2kldenue2ew2ov6xweeri7lfdltiicy7gqts6cq y6qmbdeum@jpeg

I think it's mostly gonna depend on whom Erica Kirk marries.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:awzzrtrcrvpnxi3ph2sbhxwv/bafkreiakrif3ondle5lpfycymqclstzooip6h7rq7j4otu3ex uhw2x5yt4@jpeg

[Winehole23]

hilarious weeping and wailing


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:hfrtjnhcfzvyrht2atilf3yw/bafkreia34wr6a44z6we35cb4dztlozdajji5zvlyknj5lantw ayduyogxi@jpeg

[Winehole23]

I think it's mostly gonna depend on whom Erica Kirk marries.not sure if serious...

[ChumpDumper]

not sure if serious...

It currently makes the most sense to me.

[Winehole23]

Shorter Ramaswamy: too much identity politics, not enough kitchen table issues


"We got our a--es handed to us in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City. Democrats swept all three," said Ramaswamy.
"There’s two key lessons for Republicans, listen carefully," he went on.

"Our side needs to focus on affordability. Make the American dream affordable, bring down costs: electric costs, grocery costs, healthcare costs and housing costs. And lay out how we’re going to do it," he said.

"Number two, cut out the identity politics, it doesn’t suit Republicans, it’s not for us, that’s the woke left’s game, not ours," Ramaswamy went on.

"We don’t care about the color of your skin or your religion. We care about the content of your character, that’s who we are," he said.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ramaswamy-lists-key-lessons-gop-after-electoral-blowout-got-a-handed-to-us

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:x7nc3bhvqv5j4dy62zdt6xse/bafkreiepdvcbqxwo6desnagftsxzba6nvlptpctfznddlzwxx epkjebmfa@jpeg

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gkhlgiv6hsui5gqyye2zrbd3/bafkreiarnnuulu227yr6xehtaha64qntd43tzgfjrjgxl2gk7 zl66mcfa4@jpeg

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qi4hgu7e4urnz2uya5oyj7td/bafkreifyc3c3butfa6ljimbuagytzhfvo7hoaw2n7ddx7gkrm vnshwzoae@jpeg

[Millennial_Messiah]

Trump was 27 points underwater with Hispanics as of last month (https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/donald-trump-approval-october-2025#race)


Hispanics aren't a monolith.

Tejanos and Cubanos are consistently drastically to the right of, say, Hispanics generally concentrated in big coastal and mid-atlantic east coast cities.

That said, if Cuellar is on the ballot next year, he likely holds on to his seat. GOP is trying to convict him on some felonies and force him out, which would be a flip.


Virginia last had 60 Democratic delegates in 1989

They ended up with 64 today, a thirteen seat swing and a supermajority (3/5th in VA)
The governor and state legislature will propose a gerrymandered House map next year but the state supreme court which leans (R) will veto it, tbh.


Dems reportedly broke the GOP supermajority in the Mississippi Senate in special elections today
Well, that only would have mattered if Presley won in 2023, the Dems still have no ability to stop MS from drawing out that blue house seat once SCOTUS axes VRA II.


You were wrong on about half the statewide races
2. But definitely big margin miss, and actually overestimated Mamdani a bit.


Atheism is its own secular "religion". If you don't believe well then you do believe in something other than the narrative that God created this universe, so what is it you believe in exactly?

It's like being "woke" and having a disdain for Christianity while creating an atmosphere for belief in the State and it's many corrupt disciples.
I don't believe in statism, nor communism, nor christianity or any religion, nor wokeism.

Atheism isn't a secular religion. You can argue Communism is, though. Atheism is, by definition, lack of a religion or hardcore nut belief system of any kind.

Proud to be a socially-lean right (probably centrist by 1960s-1990s standards) libertarian atheist. I've moved right politically only because the Left has moved too far left especially socially.


Never said they were, but Trump's ethnic cleansing policy doesn't seem to be keeping them inside the tent

Deporting illegal immigrants, regardless of race or which continent they're from, is not ethnic cleansing. If your first act on U.S. Soil is committing the crime of crossing illegally, without following the law the way legal immigrants have, then you should be deported and blacklisted, plain and simple.

If the GOP were, say, deporting illegals from Latin America and the Middle East but not from Europe because of skin color, then you'd maybe have a point, but they're not.


Epstein files must be really bad for Trump

I do believe this specific issue had a nonzero effect on last night's election turnout, tbh.

[Winehole23]

Hispanics aren't a monolith.

Tejanos and Cubanos are consistently drastically to the right of, say, Hispanics generally concentrated in big coastal and mid-atlantic east coast cities.

That said, if Cuellar is on the ballot next year, he likely holds on to his seat. GOP is trying to convict him on some felonies and force him out, which would be a flip.


The governor and state legislature will propose a gerrymandered House map next year but the state supreme court which leans (R) will veto it, tbh.Never said they were, but Trump's ethnic cleansing policy doesn't seem to be keeping them inside the tent

[Winehole23]

Rudy

:lmao


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:bumu6s332o24fppobse7j3ms/bafkreidatjorhlg2l2nlhj7ectlbnk5nzg3sjg3dxpu4ul73g zxuzo537m@jpeg

[Winehole23]

the cope

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2darfo36xds4oznvip7x2ux7/bafkreidbkvh35qfns4mud2u3pvcky2x4t6dmne7acqr2xcrti uhep7y2ha@jpeg

[Winehole23]

Aurora, Colorado

Came in third


The Trump-aligned Aurora City Council member at the center of the Tren de Aragua apartment-takeover debate has conceded the race after lagging behind two progressive candidates: Alli Jackson and Rob Andrews.

"I have served my hometown and all of you with every ounce of passion, loyalty, and heart that I have," she wrote in a post on X (https://x.com/danijurinsky/status/1986220781635051936?s=46), formerly Twitter.


“It’s a sea change for Aurora. We are going from having seven conservatives and three progressives to six progressives and four conservatives,” said Councilmember Alison Coombs, a self-described leftist who was not up for re-election this year.https://denverite.com/2025/11/05/aurora-city-council-elections-progressive-flip/

[Winehole23]

big, big shift in GA


Of the 22 counties Democrats flipped—the most populous of which were Paulding and Fayette on the outskirts of Atlanta—many were enabled by a substantial blue shift.


Seven of the counties that voted Democratic for public service commissioner gave Harris between 35% and 38% of the vote just a year earlier. Nine others gave Harris between 40% and 45%. The remaining six gave Harris between 46% and 49% of the vote.
https://almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-easily-outpace-2024-performance

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pn4oj3qoo5iw6vmvwgbg3d43/bafkreib2l55fpcv7ngrr3bpxcca2dmsv63fknsxd4ignnkjdh 3w5xmx2ky@jpeghttps://www.thebulwark.com/p/2025-elections-democracy-wave

[Millennial_Messiah]

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/2025-elections-democracy-wave


big, big shift in GA

https://almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-easily-outpace-2024-performance

GOP special election turnout has been dogshit for a decade. Not really big news. Next year will be more of an actual harbinger.

[Winehole23]

The GOP does seem to be treating the healthcare cliff as a problem now, and I think you can firmly place that on election results from last Tuesday

[Winehole23]

GOP special election turnout has been dogshit for a decade. Not really big news. Next year will be more of an actual harbinger.VA hasn't had 60 Democrats in the House of Delegates since the 1980s

if a legislative supermajority cuts no ice with you, by all means, hit the snooze bar

[Millennial_Messiah]

VA hasn't had 60 Democrats in the House of Delegates since the 1980s

if a legislative supermajority cuts no ice with you, by all means, hit the snooze bar

.....and yet the state supreme court still has a conservative majority, and Youngkin will be sure to keep that intact as best he can in the next ~2 months

ergo: the Democrats won't be able to gerrymander the snake district map they want.

60 seats isn't a supermajority in almost every other state.

it's an impressive win, but it's still a special election and Sears was a historically bad governor candidate for VA

[BadMotorscooter]

.....and yet the state supreme court still has a conservative majority, and Youngkin will be sure to keep that intact as best he can in the next ~2 months

ergo: the Democrats won't be able to gerrymander the snake district map they want.

60 seats isn't a supermajority in almost every other state.

it's an impressive win, but it's still a special election and Sears was a historically bad governor candidate for VA

MM with the bitchslap on Wine Ho.....lmao

[Winehole23]

Paul amendment goes down 78-22

Hemp products will be re-criminalized with a hard cap of .4mg THC per container


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cphgfu544qoxz4mzia2iqmyz/bafkreiculjoedru6dawzy25zrsdxbdvqjc66t4kxbj76mc47i yigbk2nvu@jpeg

[Winehole23]

“any intermediate hemp-derived cannabinoid products which are marketed or sold as a final product or directly to an end consumer for personal or household use”

[DMX7]

Mamdani was at the White House today. I didn't know Elise Stefanik had called him a "Jihadist". She is awful. How vile can you get?

[Winehole23]

Mamdani was at the White House today. I didn't know Elise Stefanik had called him a "Jihadist". She is awful. How vile can you get?

Poor Stefanik

She tries so hard to get Trump's attention, but he wouldn't piss on her if she was on fire

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ihoipofqy3zbh5iuxi5g4ptw/bafkreif3d7i43aahf5hnuuysyl6b6vcqfzyd2m2fykxjcfkx7 mf3tpkfni@jpeg

[DMX7]

Poor Stefanik

She tries so hard to get Trump's attention, but he wouldn't piss on her if she was on fire

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ihoipofqy3zbh5iuxi5g4ptw/bafkreif3d7i43aahf5hnuuysyl6b6vcqfzyd2m2fykxjcfkx7 mf3tpkfni@jpeg

Apparently Elise just doubled down on the claim, but that's how "Macho Man" GOP politics seem to work these days.

[Millennial_Messiah]

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/republican-matt-van-epps-wins-tennessees-7th-congressional-district/

:lol Tennessee AOC
:lol Democrats'
:lol can't win in a non-blue state with actual fair and transparent vote counting


Van Epps won by over 8%, which is bad for Dems for a special election, i.e. the party of special elections, even in a ~Trump + 20% seat.

[Winehole23]

Trump plus 22

It wasn't close, but that's not a good margin for Rs -- minus 14 points compared to last year

If that margin were generalized next year, Rs lose both the House and Senate

[Winehole23]

(House by ~50)

[GAustex]

Pfffttt

Rightlys knew we’re gonna smoke Tenn AOC

Lots didn’t show cause they knew it was a blow out

Lefties blew all that $$ (it’s what they do) on a lost cause

Reading anything into this other than a blow out is misguided

[Winehole23]

DON'T WRITE THAT WE WERE SCARED

[DarrinS]

DON'T WRITE THAT WE WERE SCARED

Calm down spaz

[ChumpDumper]

Congratulations guys! You did it!

[Winehole23]

lol gloating over a gimme

[Millennial_Messiah]

Trump plus 22

It wasn't close, but that's not a good margin for Rs -- minus 14 points compared to last year

If that margin were generalized next year, Rs lose both the House and Senate

Unfortunately for you, the dems are the party of special elections and off year, off beat elections, and the republicans do actually show up for general elections. In midterms a higher volume, generally more educated (but somewhat more moderate/pro choice) GOP electorate turns out, and in president elections it's the magacore base, oddly the more educated Republican voters tend to vote slightly more in the midterms than in presidential years but it's not by a lot, but it was enough to flip a few seats in CA and NY red in 2022 that flipped back blue in 2024. The magacore vote is comprised of a lot of evangelicals who don't give a damn about anything down-ballot. But the black democrat vote is often the exact inverse and also low turnout in midterms.

The democrats do well when they can zone in on a single election that they can put all their eggs in that the average conservative voter doesn't see as priority and maybe the national GOP party takes for granted, like the Alabama special election for Senate in 2017, no way in hell that should have ever gone blue but it did, which shows the Trump era GOP are actually slightly improving in special elections for what it's worth, though the democrats are still clearly the superior party there

The seat went to the incumbent by 21%, and you would expect the dems to overperform in a special election with an open seat with a GOP president, that's always how it's worked. The final margin was R+9 which, sure on the surface looks bad for Republicans, but when you take into account that the special election electorate is never as blue anywhere as any general election midterm or presidential, maybe you can average it out and say Dems overperform by half of that, so about 5% compared to what they did in 2024, which still is losing in the House given the new maps and the senate races will be individualized on a state by state case and absolutely no guarantee that the national generic popular vote will be the deciding factor of any of those outcomes, similar to the D's winning very specific Senate and Governor races in the R+4 environment of 2022.


basing projections on 2024 voting patterns may prove to be misguided
basing projections for 2026 on blue tsunami bloodbath midterms like 2006 which was definitely pre-polarization is beyond misguided, it's fallacy.

[Winehole23]

basing projections on 2024 voting patterns may prove to be misguided

[Winehole23]

how much America hates y'all hasn't sunk in yet

it will

[ChumpDumper]

Unfortunately for you, the dems are the party of special elections and off year, off beat elections, and the republicans do actually show up for general elections. In midterms a higher volume, generally more educated (but somewhat more moderate/pro choice) GOP electorate turns out, and in president elections it's the magacore base, oddly the more educated Republican voters tend to vote slightly more in the midterms than in presidential years but it's not by a lot, but it was enough to flip a few seats in CA and NY red in 2022 that flipped back blue in 2024. The magacore vote is comprised of a lot of evangelicals who don't give a damn about anything down-ballot. But the black democrat vote is often the exact inverse and also low turnout in midterms.

The democrats do well when they can zone in on a single election that they can put all their eggs in that the average conservative voter doesn't see as priority and maybe the national GOP party takes for granted, like the Alabama special election for Senate in 2017, no way in hell that should have ever gone blue but it did, which shows the Trump era GOP are actually slightly improving in special elections for what it's worth, though the democrats are still clearly the superior party there

The seat went to the incumbent by 21%, and you would expect the dems to overperform in a special election with an open seat with a GOP president, that's always how it's worked. The final margin was R+9 which, sure on the surface looks bad for Republicans, but when you take into account that the special election electorate is never as blue anywhere as any general election midterm or presidential, maybe you can average it out and say Dems overperform by half of that, so about 5% compared to what they did in 2024, which still is losing in the House given the new maps and the senate races will be individualized on a state by state case and absolutely no guarantee that the national generic popular vote will be the deciding factor of any of those outcomes, similar to the D's winning very specific Senate and Governor races in the R+4 environment of 2022.


basing projections for 2026 on blue tsunami bloodbath midterms like 2006 which was definitely pre-polarization is beyond misguided, it's fallacy.

So Trump and the Republicans are actually very popular and everything is going great?

[Winehole23]

midterm level turnout in an off year, I think MM is off on this

[Winehole23]

2022 midterms


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:zuddhk7vlinxj3374rzcv7p5/bafkreig2bdfs6n3oncbzx7gwug33ii64hnuc7va47qrwixt37 jak4d7slu@jpeg

2025 special election


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:zuddhk7vlinxj3374rzcv7p5/bafkreihydh3fesl2sh6xespb2k7xztis77artbuhwr56yjlv4 hd5msh7ke@jpeg

[Winehole23]

just pathetic spin by MM

[Millennial_Messiah]

2022 midterms



2025 special election
how much did the dems spend on yesterday's election compared to 2022?

not to mention they put up a dumpy noname sacrificial lamb black candidate compared to someone with a pulse this time

[Winehole23]

answer your own question

what was the relative spend?

[Winehole23]

still spinning

lol

[Winehole23]

Miami has a Democratic mayor for the first time in ~30 years


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreifgbcae64huih5vdhuzecahzojocujihkvywbbgyy3w6 32y3mmd7i@jpeg

[Spurs Homer]

lol

trump endorsement…

[Winehole23]

impressive trend this year


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:e4pu6hvm75bwvnahnxy5kufs/bafkreigve2kgngwikvobivu23ld2p2pcfs25jovvpszyva3nc 3hdro5xqy@jpeg

[Millennial_Messiah]

impressive trend this year

keyword is special election. The Democrats have been special election juggernauts for a long time now. 10+ years. The GOP just doesn't have the ground game for special elections and conservatives are apathetic and liberals are pumped for those. Voting has become a religion to liberals. Voting IS the left's religion. Which, by default, keeps them very competitive, regardless of awful policy. Conservatives would rather go to church for Tuesday prayer or read their stupid, antiquated, archaic, abrahamic mythology bible than go vote when it's not a midterm or presidential election, that's the unfortunate but true difference.

2017 U.S. Senate Alabama special election race was probably the most massive example, it's an R+32 state that went tilt blue, at the state wide level for a federal election no less. But there are examples all over the place, in early 2024 Dems were calling for eastern Ohio to flip back blue after the Youngstown area House seat went R+8 in the special election early 2024 after going R+24 in 2020, but then it went R+33 in the general election.

any election for any position that isn't held in November of an even numbered year will always have a blue bias, that's just facts, but it's never a harbinger for elections that are held in November in even numbered years.

Until (unless) the average conservative voters gets with the program and accepts science and the truth that the Bible is equally silly as Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny, then this will continue to be the case.

[Winehole23]

Keep coping, Republican support is cratering

[Winehole23]

Democrats, buoyed by Trump’s unpopularity and a fired-up base, flipped 21 percent of all the GOP-held seats that were on the ballot throughout 2025.


According to Bolts’ analysis, Democrats gained 25 state Senate and House seats that were held by the GOP, out of the 118 that were resolved this year in regular or special elections.


The swing is even stronger than in 2017, when Democrats flipped 20 percent of all GOP-held legislative seats up for election, per Bolts’ review of data compiled at the time by elections websites Ballotpedia (https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2017) and The Downballot (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit?gid=0#gid=0).
https://boltsmag.org/legislative-elections-results-2025/

[Winehole23]

Meanwhile, Republicans failed to flip any legislative seats this year, losing ground even in New Jersey, where they had high hopes, and failing to gain several districts in New York State that Trump carried last year. (The GOP did manage to flip a handful of seats in 2017.)


And the GOP may have gotten lucky this year: Most of the legislative elections that occurred in 2025 were for seats that Democrats already held, which limited their opportunity for gains. The Downballot (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JGk1r1VXnxBrAIVHz1C5HTB5jxCO6Zw4QNPivdhyWHw/edit?gid=415249345#gid=415249345) has found that, in special elections that both parties contested this year, Democrats performed 13 percentage points better on average than they did in the 2024 presidential race.

[Winehole23]

Rs have flipped 0% of seats so far this year, Dems 21%

[Winehole23]

Apparently Elise just doubled down on the claim, but that's how "Macho Man" GOP politics seem to work these days.Didn't work

One of the most prominent Trump lickspittle courtiers will resign

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:45byt36fgdg4ocu3usqo7hv3/bafkreiebh2bywmyjv3fj2ma4mcgzraerrcsko5ywozyy6mrd3 xafr7jepa@jpeg

[Winehole23]

The Virginia legislature today passed four constitutional amendments, all by day 3 of 2026 session:

—protect abortion rights
—repeal the same-sex marriage ban
—allow mid-decade redistricting
—greatly expand voting rights restoration.

These will all go to 2026 referendums.

[Winehole23]

a repeal of Virginia's unique lifetime ban on voting for felons will be on the ballot in 2026


At the 1902 constitutional convention that enshrined the current system, politicians designed a lifetime ban to, in the words of a lawmaker from the time, “eliminate the darkie as a political factor” in Virginia and guarantee “the complete supremacy of the white race in the affairs of government.” Black people are massively overrepresented (https://www.prisonpolicy.org/profiles/VA.html) in Virginia’s prison population, leading to their massive overrepresentation in the pool of people exiting prison without voting rights; as recently as 2016, 22 percent of Black Virginians were barred from voting (https://www.sentencingproject.org/app/uploads/2022/08/6-Million-Lost-Voters.pdf) for life.https://boltsmag.org/virginia-constitutional-amendment-to-repeal-lifetime-ban-on-voting/

[Winehole23]

time to clean house


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:7xrcjv6ggctoft5gm4ur4qk5/bafkreibqffadtamtpfq3oj3xk3dldfkhzhpcuf5ohskqklgzm kumpzzf7m@jpeg

[Winehole23]

this district was Trump +17 in 2024


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:alqdxbp33ceoyly2o46nvcrc/bafkreiautkhiv7t2zmzjs6se263rgsc4ye2tjzavfxifrkzn6 xvx767pre@jpeg

[ChumpDumper]

Obvious Tarrant County Soros Fraud Machine.

[Winehole23]

A Dem hasn't held that Texas Senate seat since 1990, Taylor Rehmet just beat the R by 14 points

[ChumpDumper]

REPUBLICAN TEXAS ELECTION OFFICIALS CHEATED SO THE DEM WINS!

IT'S SO SIMPLE!

AND IT MAKES SENSE!

[Winehole23]

one wonders what a 30-point electoral swing in Texas would look like this fall

[Winehole23]

REPUBLICAN TEXAS ELECTION OFFICIALS CHEATED SO THE DEM WINS!

IT'S SO SIMPLE!

AND IT MAKES SENSE!Tarrant County has recently been a red team stronghold, seems there's a crack in the edifice

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:xxcbvm4arpbg2icwxxhhhul7/bafkreibu6siukl2qsh7uvxzeoskj6juzgxe2zr5wgqvvh3pee kovula3o4@jpeg

[Winehole23]

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K7qI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_pro gressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc2f3aa6 e-dc67-4761-b9ae-14d0aef12013_3000x1800.png


Since Trump took office, Democrats have flipped eight Republican-held state legislative seats in special elections across five states. Republicans have flipped zero Democratic seats.

The average swing across these eight flips is 19 points. Tonight’s 32-point swing in Texas blew past that.
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/blue-wave-watch-democrat-flips-trump

[ChumpDumper]

Well here's the new target for DHS.

2017829498436132989

https://x.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/2017829498436132989

[ChumpDumper]

A sign in White Settlement, probably.

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2026/02/01/multimedia/01nat-texas-elections-02-pljm/01nat-texas-elections-02-pljm-articleLarge.jpg

[ChumpDumper]

ST Trumptards will have to check in with their inevitable sour grapes. There are plenty of ways to downplay this election -- but it's all trumped by the amount of money they spent on it.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:cphgfu544qoxz4mzia2iqmyz/bafkreigiq5qaycskrsdm7sfhm6fwh7itjt2ty24dxesw7s6sp zxlx6peke@jpeg

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:cphgfu544qoxz4mzia2iqmyz/bafkreiezqamt5ehoeknmrwwq6nwvtpcpe6sy4hie5zd7wrpay acmxar4ty@jpeg

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:kjjhbsc3pp3vkqjsivk6z2yd/bafkreicmo2k5myc66h6kqg3zohi4nbgpzw3cxhcbz7pzlro3a x4tzbhhoa@jpeg

[Winehole23]

Louisiana House District 60 was a Trump +13 district in 2024

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:kgo45g7krpb5chiqyarhaxwv/bafkreihd3n3qooalapuds2mvbyq65by72ccznjkbcq6dg42m2 7gl5brlty@jpeg

[ChumpDumper]

I voted there too!

Along with 2000 Somali mules I drove down there!

[Winehole23]

early voting in Tarrant County


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:yazguwe4ju432ogxz5leedsl/bafkreiazawpnpi2xfl7da4tryvcpv3ngoyptrqhycy4byrczp hurdwdwwe@jpeg

[Winehole23]

EV tracker for Texas

Dems have already exceeded their 2022 EV total, Rs sit at about 53% of their 2022 EV tally so far

https://votehub.com/early-vote-tracker-tx-primary-26?state=tx-sen-26-dem

[Winehole23]

turnout is heavy for a primary election in many parts of Texas, but voting in Dallas County was stymied by new election changes that rerouted voters from high-volume locations to precincts

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections/2026/03/03/were-seeing-chaos-hundreds-turned-away-at-dallas-county-polls-amid-switch-to-precincts/




https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:zuddhk7vlinxj3374rzcv7p5/bafkreibqc2p2ituybintankfuunkhn2rpukgndnwlhhfmmbjo pqiiache4@jpeg

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:jnonaaedk7xmoo7egbd7vstc/bafkreihu2qud7rpgrxqgons3d2bieeai6sbwqqovwqp6kyu4y jeodwaqny@jpeg

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nabpxh57dor5jlxw6cyxfpog/bafkreiacv6mq26mpbtggeegbocunf5phpihukvfnjif2luklh 65rnep77m@jpeg

[Winehole23]

Wow, the Dem primary turnout among Hispanic voters in Texas is going to be giving the GOP sweats for the next 8 months.

Take Zapata County - turnout in the Dem primary there yesterday was 143% the total number of votes Harris won in the 2024 general election. That's wild.


Here are 4 districts the TX GOP gerrymandered to gain seats in November, with the Dem and GOP primary vote. Dems outvoted GOPs in every one of them.


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:5ylecjxog7qs5h32zdblqms4/bafkreifgp2xjdfrni6t3bqv6n4hmf42epc4n22zbu6mwch4ki kvcknuof4@jpeghttps://bsky.app/profile/tbonier.bsky.social/post/3mgaafwpxbc2q

[Winehole23]

Let's keep in mind, the GOP reportedly spent upwards of $80 million on their primaries in Texas, well more than double the amount spent by Dems.

[Winehole23]

Not every vote is in (the outlined counties don't have >95% counted, and Maverick hasn't reported at all), but this shows the swing between Harris' margin in '24 and the Dem margin in yesterday's primary turnout. You can see in south Texas the shifts were >100%.

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:5ylecjxog7qs5h32zdblqms4/bafkreidhmzheuvr5q6cqrvaiynscmtri4ezhd3ovfw7pa6mmk cjrf2nfoi@jpeg

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HClOF1kawAEpvba?format=jpg&name=900x900


The important thing to note is the primary vote totals. Talarico and Crockett earned over 2.2 million votes in the Democratic primary where Cornyn, Paxton and third-place Wes Hunt earned 2.05 million votes.For comparison, in 2018 Beto O’Rourke and two opponents earned just over 1 million Dem primary votes (https://x.com/natwilsonturner/status/2029244134926762204) and Ted Cruz et al. earned over 1.5 million GOP primary votes (https://x.com/natwilsonturner/status/2029244092778213799).

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HCmOlSzbYAAT7Eq?format=jpg&name=900x900