***** All Inclusive 2026 Election Night Thread *****

[Millennial_Messiah]

I guess get this started while primary season kicks off.



Jasmine Crockett just accused Talarico of cheating :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:jnonaaedk7xmoo7egbd7vstc/bafkreihu2qud7rpgrxqgons3d2bieeai6sbwqqovwqp6kyu4y jeodwaqny@jpeg




She still lost. And looks like Cornyn is going to hold on after all.


You think Talarico has a shot in the general vs. Cornyn? I doubt it, it's Texas

[SnakeBoy]

Paxton might win the runoff...depends on the Hunt voters

[ChumpDumper]

Paxton might win the runoff...depends on the Hunt voters

Whom do you personally want to win?

[Millennial_Messiah]

Whom do you personally want to win?

Well, Talarico beat crock-a-shitt 78-22% in both Travis and Williamson counties, netting a 120k+ raw vote lead in Austin alone, so I'm gonna guess you voted for him.

I actually think Cornyn could lose vs Talarico. Apathy in the maga base. And Talarico has eaten decently into the moderate conservative bloc, i.e. Cornyn's base.

[lokomail99rr]

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[SnakeBoy]

Whom do you personally want to win?

Don't like either much but Paxton I suppose, don't care too much about it though

[SnakeBoy]

Well, Talarico beat crock-a-shitt 78-22% in both Travis and Williamson counties, netting a 120k+ raw vote lead in Austin alone, so I'm gonna guess you voted for him.

I actually think Cornyn could lose vs Talarico. Apathy in the maga base. And Talarico has eaten decently into the moderate conservative bloc, i.e. Cornyn's base.

No chance Talarico wins

[Winehole23]

school board crazies lose


turns out bigotry and censorship aren't super popular


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:7vj2towokzui3hgna5u5u46f/bafkreih6u7w563vhmtte2rh5gasbreb27hvqfojx6o4oy5ebp z6gfsf5aihttps://boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ballot/may-2026-elections-guide/

[Winehole23]

Chip Roy loses Tx AG primary runoff to Mayes Middleton

https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/26/mayes-middleton-chip-roy-texas-republican-runoff-attorney-general/

[Blake]

Paxton might win the runoff...depends on the Hunt voters

Depended on the Trump endorsement. This is still clearly a magatard state.

[Blake]

Chip Roy loses Tx AG primary runoff to Mayes Middleton

https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/26/mayes-middleton-chip-roy-texas-republican-runoff-attorney-general/

Yup MAGA Mayes won easily. If/ when he wins the office, we can say more goodbyes to alternative energy sources.

[Winehole23]

Yup MAGA Mayes won easily. If/ when he wins the office, we can say more goodbyes to alternative energy sources.Texas is a national leader in wind and solar energy (*checks notes*) right now

[Millennial_Messiah]

Yup MAGA Mayes won easily. If/ when he wins the office, we can say more goodbyes to alternative energy sources.

So what will Abbott blame the next time we get a severe snowstorm or even worse, an insane heat wave and we don't have power for a week?

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:on5oeywiqx32fh2zau473wz6/bafkreidycuex6hftecfsb45bjwoxywqjhugzt32pktzmouuoc d6aq46w5m

[Winehole23]

call for people to die over [checks notes] reality TV idiot Spencer Pratt coming in third in an LA mayoral election

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:uayevtgtbwot25zhocjzb6lv/bafkreidkv2y4jbqejxeixjaop4gxs6tagnkde6eyanqjned47 neih6o4hm

[Winehole23]

premature loss of a FL House seat


Two-term Republican Rep. Paula Stark (https://www.flhouse.gov/Sections/Representatives/custom/details.aspx?MemberId=4878&LegislativeTermId=91) has appeared to not qualify for re-election in House District 47, so Democrats would win back a blue seat they have long sought out.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/801795-paula-stark-fails-to-qualify-for-hd-47-giving-democrats-an-early-win/

[Winehole23]

NEW POLL 📊 Fox News Senate Polls (June/July)

GEORGIA:
🔵 Ossoff 56% (+13)
🔴 Collins 43%

NORTH CAROLINA:
🔵 Cooper 53% (+9)
🔴 Whatley 44%

OHIO:
🔵 Brown 53% (+8)
🔴 Husted 45%

IOWA:
🔵 Turek 50% (+4)
🔴 Hinson 46%

[Winehole23]

I hope El0n Musk is as effective helping Republicans this year as he was last year in Wisconsin


Today, Chris Taylor is sworn in to replace Rebecca Bradley on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, giving liberals a 5-2 majority. As recently as 2020, conservatives had a 5-2 edge on the court, but four straight double-digit victories for liberals shifted the balance—and the court could go 6-1 next year.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qnfczqupihw2zzgdronwtgkp/bafkreiedmz7d3hixzxbvju6dmpjzgjz2rpxwypbwuarq7lpf6 fiicywjie

[Winehole23]

Kansas voters Tuesday overwhelmingly rejected a proposal to rewrite the state constitution and elect Kansas Supreme Court justices, spiking a plan long coveted by Republicans who want more conservative rulings on issues including abortion and school funding.


About 62% of Kansans were voting “no” on the constitutional amendment with 546,640 votes counted as of 10:30 p.m.
https://kansasreflector.com/2026/08/04/kansas-voters-reject-constitutional-amendment-on-judicial-selection-by-wide-margin/

[Winehole23]

story here is that the Trump endorsed candidate in MI08 GOP primary, Hassan, lost to a nobody who suspended his campaign a month ago


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:alqdxbp33ceoyly2o46nvcrc/bafkreibmupkpyjpnp454u4hy4gb2s3opuuz4inhaai7xslm2s mpdtpozba

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qnfczqupihw2zzgdronwtgkp/bafkreiedmz7d3hixzxbvju6dmpjzgjz2rpxwypbwuarq7lpf6 fiicywjietax positivity in reddest Missouri


The governor’s top priority, backed by $17.2 million from donors who never had to identify themselves and it couldn’t even clear 20%https://missouriindependent.com/2026/08/05/what-tuesdays-primary-results-say-about-amendment-5-and-the-next-missouri-senate/

[Millennial_Messiah]

story here is that the Trump endorsed candidate in MI08 GOP primary, Hassan, lost to a nobody who suspended his campaign a month ago

which is also why abdul el sayed is going to lose pretty big. Even a ton of white moderates especially over 45 don't really want a Muslim senator. And a ton of the democrats especially blacks and older moderates who voted for Stevens aren't voting for him.

...of course the generation of voters who were born before 9/11 in places like Ann Arbor will vote for him by a dictator margin, but it won't be nearly enough. Mike Rogers is a very strong candidate with no scandals who lost by 19,000 votes in 2024 to an establishment juggernaut with tons of money.

even though this "Amir Hassan" black guy claims to be a christian. Allegedly. But it's indeed odd to be a black guy with an Arabic name in America and not be part of Farrakhan's cult.

as for the Missouri thing, that's absolutely bizarre that that high of the population in any party would vote to tax me harder daddy.

[Winehole23]

even though this "Amir Hassan" black guy claims to be a christian. Allegedly. But it's indeed odd to be a black guy with an Arabic name in America and not be part of Farrakhan's cult.No, it's not


as for the Missouri thing, that's absolutely bizarre that that high of the population in any party would vote to tax me harder daddy.No it isn't

Missourians understand that government pays for good stuff, without which people struggle and suffer more

The math isn't hard: the more public goodies, the more public good

[Winehole23]

Ohio - 7th House Polling:

�� Poindexter: 47%
�� Miller: 33%

(Trump + 11 District)

co/efficient / Aug 6, 2026

(Republican Pollster)

(Current model result has OH-7 at DEM 51% - GOP 49%)unitedstatespolling.com/p/the-republ...

[Millennial_Messiah]

No, it's not

No it isn't

Missourians understand that government pays for good stuff, without which people struggle and suffer more

The math isn't hard: the more public goodies, the more public good

so basically you're acknowledging that a large chunk of the Trump base are fairly openly socialists.


pretty sure the lack of a state income tax doesn't stop Texas from having nice roads, highways, etc, and Texas doesn't have nearly the tourism argument that Florida or even Tennessee does.


unitedstatespolling.com/p/the-republ...

yeah, I believe that poll though. Bernie Moreno is quite popular amongst the GOP in Ohio and it's his daughter and, sadly, baby granddaughter.

Miller is a punkhead. He needs to drop out or be expelled. I believe the deadline is next Wednesday in Ohio. I would just expel him. George Santos was expelled for far less, even though the Republicans in that situation knew that his seat was 99.99% likely to be replaced by Tom Suozzi and the Dems.

[Winehole23]

so basically you're acknowledging that a large chunk of the Trump base are fairly openly socialists.


pretty sure the lack of a state income tax doesn't stop Texas from having nice roads, highways, etc, and Texas doesn't have nearly the tourism argument that Florida or even Tennessee does.Missouri said no

Get over it




yeah, I believe that poll though. Bernie Moreno is quite popular amongst the GOP in Ohio and it's his daughter and, sadly, baby granddaughter.

Miller is a punkhead. He needs to drop out or be expelled. I believe the deadline is next Wednesday in Ohio. I would just expel him. George Santos was expelled for far less, even though the Republicans in that situation knew that his seat was 99.99% likely to be replaced by Tom Suozzi and the Dems.don't hold your breath

[Winehole23]

Justin Pearson has won the Democratic primary for Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District.

As part of the "Tennessee Three," Pearson gained national attention in 2023 when Republicans attempted to expel him for his gun control advocacy after the Covenant School shooting.

[Winehole23]

so basically you're acknowledging that a large chunk of the Trump base are fairly openly socialists.taxation isn't socialism, dummy

[Winehole23]

bye, Andy Ogles


Republican Rep. Andy Ogles (Tenn.) is projected to fall short in a Thursday primary for the 5th Congressional District, delivering a blow to President Trump, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).


Former Tennessee Commissioner of Agriculture Dr. Charlie Hatcher. the lone Republican challenger in the race, is set to defeat Ogles, who was backed by the president.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5999917-ogles-defeat-tennessee-house-primary/amp/

[Winehole23]

Rep. Max Miller resists calls to drop reelection bid amid bitter custody battlehttps://www.wosu.org/podcast/snollygoster/2026-08-06/rep-max-miller-resists-calls-to-drop-reelection-bid-amid-bitter-custody-battle

[Winehole23]

"music man"

[Winehole23]

Knox County is Tennessee's 3rd largest county, and it voted for Trump by 20%. It has a GOP-run school board known for banning books & approving controversial charter schools.

Democrats last night flipped control of the school board in Knox County.

[Winehole23]

Maine Senate Race (Fox News):

��Jackson 48%
��Collins 46%

Aug 6-10, 2026

[Winehole23]

extreme enthusiasm gap

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:lzfzawdilrmsfikvr4c6ytk4/bafkreibfu7xqolndldxlfmvnwfdav5wtvmvksz25hxbeqo5z5 wiym5kklu

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:lzfzawdilrmsfikvr4c6ytk4/bafkreihlwizjtq4ckbwlgrazgv4nfkdfx2cqpv75ym27cqgqk se2er6arq

[Winehole23]

GOP pollster


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:zjkfkzunzinds2ozg6uidsiv/bafkreibwzrhhgv6q6powrcon2osl4sj2fw2nsskf23ed64urv i3q4yczbq

[Winehole23]

59-40 Trump 2024 district

not over, but wild overperformance


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cy6qwhuegarwmgp5ege5ca5s/bafkreiftvin7b6mdku6bgxlx5sdhqqak3oagunsu2j5ybuhoy pilryl3by

[Blake]

59-40 Trump 2024 district

not over, but wild overperformance

I'm guessing a runoff is coming

[Winehole23]

Vindman loses to a progressive minnow with less than $1M in the bank


Angie Nixon, a progressive firebrand from Jacksonville who was arrested for staging a sit-in at the governor’s office to protest the state’s controversial congressional redistricting maps, defied the odds to win the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

She ran a come-from-behind, frugal campaign against Alex Vindman, a key witness in President Trump’s first impeachment who had a $16 million war chest, and defeated him 55-45% to go on to face Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody in November.

In the governor’s race, frontrunners Byron Donalds, the President Trump-endorsed congressman from Naples, and David Jolly, a former Republican-turned-Democrat who is one of Trump’s biggest critics, both easily won their primaries and will now face off against each each other to succeed Gov. Ron DeSantis. DeSantis is term-limited from seeking a third term.
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2026/08/18/nixon-stuns-vindman-in-dem-senate-race-donalds-jolly-face-off-for-governors-mansion/

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:yr6tximkbhfbrzmk3s6az3fe/bafkreib5exzt37jdq5bdplvdhogsnfdtwsapqrxc4e5nwu55a fq5q4d6kq

[Blake]

Vindman loses to a progressive minnow with less than $1M in the bank

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2026/08/18/nixon-stuns-vindman-in-dem-senate-race-donalds-jolly-face-off-for-governors-mansion/

What a weird victory. Favors the Republicans there I think.

[Winehole23]

What a weird victory. Favors the Republicans there I think.the incumbent is Republican and would have been favored anyway

the most motivated Dem voters didn't like Vindman -- primaries are weird

[Blake]

the incumbent is Republican and would have been favored anyway

the most motivated Dem voters didn't like Vindman -- primaries are weird

The whole Florida voting scene is weird. No idea what to expect from the governor's race.

[Winehole23]

in 2025-2026, Dems are outperforming 2024 by ~12% in legislative elections


In total since Trump’s return, Dems flipped 31 GOP seats in legislative elections (both regular and special). The GOP flipped zero.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JGk1r1VXnxBrAIVHz1C5HTB5jxCO6Zw4QNPivdhyWHw/

[Winehole23]

^^^ Bluemageddon in November if the pattern holds

[Winehole23]

Tight Senate race in Arkansas


Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner holds a slim lead over incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, but the race is within the statewide survey’s margin of error of 4.7%.

The new Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll of 1,217 likely voters shows Shoffner with 47.4% support compared to Sen. Tom Cotton’s 44% and Libertarian Jeff Wadlin’s 3%. Undecided voters stand at 5.6% in the latest statewide survey, which was conducted Aug. 11-12, 2026. Respondents were asked:https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-tight-race-for-us-senate-between-cotton-shoffner/

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreiayu32jyy7rokwaqowoun7f5eaofzpbs4c4miy6drvwv gggyykorq

[Winehole23]

Katie Hobbs up by 13 points over Biggs in AZ polling


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:5jb2734ccyccx6a3hjjuzhrr/bafkreiayvftcwysrsccqgp4rrnyx2vvjsmcox2wgtx3wdp56e 7sldjzl44

[Winehole23]

Hobbs gets 15% of Republicans in that poll

[Blake]

Katie Hobbs up by 13 points over Biggs in AZ polling

Good sign I think for the 2028 electoral college

[Winehole23]

lol


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:kdgcvfaickr7turpo6suzbqp/bafkreie2cp3z2jbmq47ugozvanc5cmgrq7gtqpc4bfmfd7ec4 jaz543zmu

[Millennial_Messiah]

don't forget, August is statistically historically the worst month polling-wise, by far, for Republicans..... I'll never forget August 2016 in-person when Hillary was pretty consistently beating Trump in Georgia (HRC +4) and even in Texas (statistical tie) in polls, plus leading WI/MI/OH/PA by double digits... also polls have been absolute garbage this entire midterm primary cycle.


summer polls consistently over-sample college students and career academics who are the bluest and most progressivist of respondents who have a poor turnout tendency in the fall.


Good sign I think for the 2028 electoral college

don't hold your breath. Hobbs may win, but if she does it'll be ~1-3% tops. AZ was a big polling miss to the left in 2024, both Kamala and Gallego underperformed polling averages there by about 6%.



Tight Senate race in Arkansas

https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-tight-race-for-us-senate-between-cotton-shoffner/
August polls.


in 2025-2026, Dems are outperforming 2024 by ~12% in legislative elections

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JGk1r1VXnxBrAIVHz1C5HTB5jxCO6Zw4QNPivdhyWHw/
August polls.


taxation isn't socialism, dummy
Indeed it is. Keynesian economic policy is inherently Communist-lite.

[Winehole23]

Not only have you never been great at political predictions here, M_M, your record is absolutely dismal

Not sure I can recall a poster who got it wrong more consistently -- you have a pronounced weakness for wishcasting

[Winehole23]

True that August polls aren't worth much, though

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cphgfu544qoxz4mzia2iqmyz/bafkreicelsjx5bm5wzpdlxvkyvp37bfk33zuikmfu6hg4efvz zzvwlikqi

[Blake]

lol

Trump trying to figure out how to pocket that cash

[ChumpDumper]

Trump trying to figure out how to pocket that cashHe's going to spend the money on ads for...







































...himself.
















































lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

I'd take out a home equity loan to bet on Paxton at this point. It's the week before Labor Day and it's probably your last chance to bet against Talarico before the polls turn sharply against him and the rest of the Democrats in contested Senate seats.

still think Cooper and Ossoff win straight up but it will be way narrower than the current pre-fall polls show, i'd put strong wagers on Cooper/Ossoff to NOT "cover the spread" (i think it's -8.5 for Cooper and -9.5 for Ossoff currently) per se

[Blake]

I'd take out a home equity loan to bet on Paxton at this point.

But you won't

[ChumpDumper]

I'd take out a home equity loan to bet on Paxton at this point. It's the week before Labor Day and it's probably your last chance to bet against Talarico before the polls turn sharply against him and the rest of the Democrats in contested Senate seats.

still think Cooper and Ossoff win straight up but it will be way narrower than the current pre-fall polls show, i'd put strong wagers on Cooper/Ossoff to NOT "cover the spread" (i think it's -8.5 for Cooper and -9.5 for Ossoff currently) per seShow your actual bets.

[Winehole23]

Trump net Hispanic approval in selected states:

FL: -9.9
NM: -20.8
CA: -45.9
TX: -46.2 (!!!)
AZ: -55.3https://lacc.fiu.edu/lpof_-national_-survey_-final.pdf

[Winehole23]

outlier poll, but may be concerning for some

TPPF is a conservative policy shop



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:wjvc76fsrmfqqtx5vuia7lrf/bafkreickfn6scpwv3io57otzabm4glqsbyc7uutpmim6id63r vhhykv4u4https://www.texaspolicy.com/press/tppf-and-overton-insights-release-findings-from-texas-poll

[Winehole23]

same poll


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:wjvc76fsrmfqqtx5vuia7lrf/bafkreianir3rtscjuksr2puieq3gyemyv3gm6lmbfkzmcuhez nk3h56z3i

[Winehole23]

RCP

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:wjvc76fsrmfqqtx5vuia7lrf/bafkreig4uhbm66xvdvgsvdrbd32nibgcgueua6gnqfyoexvhy a3ilh3oba

[Winehole23]

Beto never got closer than 5 points

[Winehole23]

Bluemageddon type numbers


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:r2wew37repqtwhf63wysczrn/bafkreif6evihrna7jqlsasoug6yag7ksyurtrwmv54wpy6h3l jigihodaqhttps://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_SlcWdVd.pdf

[Millennial_Messiah]

Show your actual bets.

Right now I currently just have bets on Ricketts beating Osborn in Nebraska. A bit of a safe one I get it, but I got it for an under 70 cent moneyline and now it's like 73-74 cents and will only go up. People forget that not only the Omaha district gets to vote in Nebraska. It's still a deep red state. The western two-thirds of the state have, like, no democrats.

[Millennial_Messiah]

same poll<br><br>lots of undecideds and that was Cornyn not Paxton. I get it, Cornyn is more moderate, but he's also not going to turn out the base if he had won the primary, and he hasn't won in a midterm year since 2014, a full year before Trump got into politics. Midterm years are all about turnout dynamics because turnout is a given in presidential election years like 2020 and 2024. A moderate like Cornyn might actually underperform Paxton in a situation where Trump won Texas by 14% under two years ago. We'll see, but either way Talafreako is going to lose.

[ChumpDumper]

Right now I currently just have bets on Ricketts beating Osborn in Nebraska. A bit of a safe one I get it, but I got it for an under 70 cent moneyline and now it's like 73-74 cents and will only go up. People forget that not only the Omaha district gets to vote in Nebraska. It's still a deep red state. The western two-thirds of the state have, like, no democrats.

Show me your actual bets.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Show me your actual bets.

I just bet about $27k to win about $40k tonight on Oklahoma beating Michigan tomorrow. I can't believe the moneyline is 64/36 lmao.

[Blake]

Is there a Kalshi on what else MM will claim he bet on other than the original thing he said everyone should bet the farm on?

[ChumpDumper]

I just bet about $27k to win about $40k tonight on Oklahoma beating Michigan tomorrow. I can't believe the moneyline is 64/36 lmao.Show us your actual bets.

[Winehole23]

Trafalgar Group is center right biased

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cphgfu544qoxz4mzia2iqmyz/bafkreiaqphjhcybkoneyusbzu5ka5findi2hzswy3ijdqwqpj mawtq4wry

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cphgfu544qoxz4mzia2iqmyz/bafkreih645rngzwpcwtbqor3pbirpqkpnxcqulpxmvt7n2hwa 7cchqehfu

[Millennial_Messiah]

Show us your actual bets.

They lost, but then I bet on AZ to beat the Chargers because the Chargers always have some kind of a stinker game early in the season and it was a huge value money line bet and I won that back + 3,300.

[Winehole23]

Senate polling update, per Nate Silver:

ALASKA 🔵 +1.2%
FLORIDA 🔴 +5.3%
GEORGIA 🔵 +8.4%
IOWA ⚪ +0.0% (TIED)
KANSAS 🔴 +3.6%
MAINE 🔵 +4.0%
MICHIGAN 🔵 +2.9%
MINNESOTA 🔵 +4.8%
NORTH CAROLINA 🔵 +8.7%
NEBRASKA 🔴 +0.9%
NEW HAMPSHIRE 🔵 +3.1%
OHIO 🔵 +4.1%
TEXAS 🔵 +2.4%

GENERIC BALLOT 🔵 +8.1%

[Millennial_Messiah]

Senate polling update, per Nate Silver:

ALASKA  +1.2%
FLORIDA  +5.3%
GEORGIA  +8.4%
IOWA ⚪ +0.0% (TIED)
KANSAS  +3.6%
MAINE  +4.0%
MICHIGAN  +2.9%
MINNESOTA  +4.8%
NORTH CAROLINA  +8.7%
NEBRASKA  +0.9%
NEW HAMPSHIRE  +3.1%
OHIO  +4.1%
TEXAS  +2.4%

GENERIC BALLOT  +8.1%

response bias - you can shift all those organically to the right by about 5%. though, I don't think Minnesota is really in play, and Ohio won't vote to the left of Maine, but the Dems may actually be in trouble in New Hampshire :lmao

[Millennial_Messiah]

https://i.imgur.com/k0g0W82.jpeg
ChumpDumper , since you wanted specificity

https://i.imgur.com/TKPA4s7.jpeg


the New York Giants one was literally just outsmarting the market. Because the average casual better doesn't know specifics about how football timing works in terms of two minute warning, 40 second playclocks, timeouts, etc. Literally the bet was made after the facemask so I made almost $1400 just to watch the Giants take a fucking knee three times. :lol

[Winehole23]

Dems +12 with likely voters and named candidates in Economist poll


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:a7ycduiplo3yssii7nicao6n/bafkreidy4geqsqmka3te6kgqqoair5ygh522d42kmgmv553km 232o6xji4

[Winehole23]

in line with NYT polling

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cphgfu544qoxz4mzia2iqmyz/bafkreie2qhtcdyt2rhn3p4p3s6x5kehikkahbf3oxjce6p4mj sigbkbgya

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:36eqtmzysqf7wsslczw4uxcd/bafkreibbufuylpp4gzk2vbxyefjqto7uxngyuoicxdiozc465 2c3kefghy

[Winehole23]

Rasmussen



Georgia - Senate Polling :

��Ossoff: 51%*
��Collins: 42%

Rasmussen / Sept 14, 2026

[Winehole23]

Marquette


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:cprxi3bvylajvrqvd6dd5qil/bafkreicwxgsnu4luyu5oh4mdgnwiqjt7n4p6br44fr5e7hlnn idrgjogzy


New Marquette Law School national survey finds Democrats expand lead on congressional ballot: 54% of likely voters say they will vote for a Democrat, while 41% say they will vote for a Republican.today.marquette.edu/2026/09/new-...

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:j2kmiyhld5btzozgzwy3lc2m/bafkreiddtnle62aktsqdbs2ypu5gb57nih5hbrkyj7gilt6pp m5w7kzq4a

[Winehole23]

imagine 1994, but with Rs losing


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbdhb35ccjzwuiz5eglnnpyr/bafkreigbfh6wuqwc7pe2clcjgxjcc4iv7xnvdu3tfzm72cb66 tu6rbec6yhttps://reconmr.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ReconMR-Texas-Poll-September-Release-Final.pdf

[Winehole23]

In 2022, Siena’s September Texas poll had Abbott leading Beto, 50-43, and their October poll had Abbott 52-43. He won, 55-44.

Beto led in just one public poll of that race, in November 2021, and never polled higher than 46 percent.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreiefiywq2i3ryizyjxyb7fgnppsq5esbzbh5rxkizw3li nseffbarq

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2026-early-voting/

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreifef6ifa7zbnqm6akt6v3p7yiuw5jjvwbf43wxlc3fb2 xmg43katu

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreidl2qtfnhz274tlwcijyry4dsyu4fli5jsjl6sl3sbxf vvmw4fgje

[Winehole23]

Tarrant County internal Republican polling, as reported by Quorum Report


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:5itlxtir2bn4wqjbppkisov3/bafkreicuccbb74gdapfk7ohsqrvqpn2jbkwbje6ya23dvmwnm slah5npfm

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4hdlnvs5tdrbwd3zjapjntus/bafkreiaeg6lntl2byppc2o2vqgjhexe3bdga7mllphtzcxasf cz4paemtm

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreiaqtxewhl3bvvqefpfwiffpoazv7ybpvwopry6rvx6w2 2wmhgojyq

[Winehole23]

Fox shifts 15 election forecasts towards the Dems

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cphgfu544qoxz4mzia2iqmyz/bafkreifqrpjk66j3pre4wzyrzyvqjstt2npumssgnfinla5c3 zhyyf562u

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4bwzn4ayvrvtiukfuwnz2i65/bafkreicblotvfdpi6xuql2qhjavdigjp4b5b5zqw35pln3esg 3ezzy7foe

[Winehole23]

midterms are a referendum on the government



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:h427qxhwbcs67frpiwx7nffh/bafkreiewybo54essyxtyw3ypytrvzwxs3ymvzuxjibpo6oby4 p7amm247i

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:bbp2b224lro3bfnzcqwwnkfo/bafkreigyoabkpec6px7il2ihdah537zb3aqdhftea4kbuz77q pfif3choe

[Winehole23]

GOP throws in the towel on NC Senate race


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:7vj2towokzui3hgna5u5u46f/bafkreih7ea2er65agbiwoarcpcninatrcf46llmoqqio7n3hk zmej72noq

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:q5wqr7zofdqyqwoki4cby36x/bafkreihumhwpjp7rcjqmy4ux77crc3yfotbxsfxplpcmiyl6a fcqomxqxq

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:3dobmrc6cl62xehkuscyv36p/bafkreidp2zmlegfrhm2ywntc7rwoaoc4eh5562elqk376ro3v viakmszqu

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:zjkfkzunzinds2ozg6uidsiv/bafkreiaei4au5babt2md4rvfhojp7dmaewj4klyrvewy35y7s adgtlblhm

[Blake]

Fox shifts 15 election forecasts towards the Dems

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cphgfu544qoxz4mzia2iqmyz/bafkreifqrpjk66j3pre4wzyrzyvqjstt2npumssgnfinla5c3 zhyyf562u

The huge political blitz that Republicans are rolling with regarding transgender and sports might be enough to fear monger the masses into voting all R again

[Winehole23]

The huge political blitz that Republicans are rolling with regarding transgender and sports might be enough to fear monger the masses into voting all R againmidterms are a referendum on the party in power

that party is led by a degenerate crook who's losing an unpopular war to a second-tier power, mashing buttons that cause prices to rise and fucking everything else up

I tend to doubt red baiting and trans panic will muddy that picture very much

[Winehole23]

Trump is cratering in Texas


The Fox poll finds Trump badly upside down at 44–55—remarkable in a state he carried (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-texas-president.html) by 14 points in 2024. Drill down, and it’s worse: Trump’s approval is underwater with non-college voters (47–53), meaning he’s losing the working class, and Latinos (38–61). He won the latter by 55–45 (https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/texas/general/president/0) two years ago.


And here’s a surprise: Trump is even underwater with Republicans who don’t identify as MAGA, or “non-MAGA Republicans,” at 46–53. Why does that matter? The Fox poll sheds light here too: Only 50 percent of non-MAGA Republicans are “extremely interested” in the election, which lags behind Texas likely voters overall (62 percent), and even further behind Democrats (67 percent).
https://newrepublic.com/article/216173/new-fox-poll-a-disaster-trump-rattles-fox-anchors-wake-up

[Blake]

midterms are a referendum on the party in power

that party is led by a degenerate crook who's losing an unpopular war to a second-tier power, mashing buttons that cause prices to rise and fucking everything else up

I tend to doubt red baiting and trans panic will muddy that picture very much

Sorry I wasn't clear I was referring specifically to Texas. Half of the ads I see from Republicans refer to "boys playing in girls sports".

I think in Texas it's enough of an issue for the fence riding simple minded folks to vote R.

[Winehole23]

Sorry I wasn't clear I was referring specifically to Texas. Half of the ads I see from Republicans refer to "boys playing in girls sports".

I think in Texas it's enough of an issue for the fence riding simple minded folks to vote R.Republicans have been doing this bit for like six or seven years

Eventually people will become relatively insensitive to it

[Winehole23]

nonzero chance of Blansas



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:uwu2axxotgetzx7ss4gjrq66/bafkreibqkusog27ygs6peeqbmtk7i7t5saez23ttqxvkqwtja yeway7efq

[Winehole23]

Today's Pew Poll

"extremely motivated to vote" was +1R in 2022

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:w4pkoieikw7mang5bggect3q/bafkreibmsoee3wtpzsdb7h6dw54tvkublf62qygb73ingetxm kdnmgqs5e

[Winehole23]

Trump +20 in 2024


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2tjnqjbnqampayvk4hez7q3h/bafkreidczpmujt3y2gu33vg6gv43f34j4z5ngbno27b73ji4z qys2v5uzi

[Blake]

Republicans have been doing this bit for like six or seven years

Eventually people will become relatively insensitive to it

You'd think...

2108316507180523906

[Winehole23]

It’s a record for a midterm in Georgia: roughly 185,000 people voted in person today, on Day 1 of early voting.

The prior record was set in 2022, with roughly 130,000 voters.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:bc4zz2vhpn3ck4p6tnj3wojt/bafkreibbdnyoor2rzmus7uxkwstqran2yi5h2h6czbgp3g4v5 a3ad4aiuu

[Winehole23]

In hindsight, gerrymandering everything into R +10 to 15 districts, heavily reliant on new coalition voters whose Abuela you were getting ready to deport and then shitting the bed economically probably wasn’t the best idea.

[Blake]

2110453086166929581

[Winehole23]

that guy is a douchenozzle, but appears to be safe in this election

[Blake]

that guy is a douchenozzle, but appears to be safe in this election

Sad

[Winehole23]

New Fox poll has Trump's approval on inflation at 22-77. Dems lead in generic ballot by 9 points, 54-45:www.foxnews.com/politics/fox... (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-cost-living-concerns-weigh-gop-midterms.amp)

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:25djycwtjyjocat746ytjvmf/bafkreieh23y35c5oaqqfuvlkocupotisqnabxqapfmwre6czh dfmutslru

[Blake]

2110498385228677403

Lol "great press conference"

[Blake]

2110462806092812471