Okay stat analyzers, explain this...

[Solid D]

Last season, the Spurs held opponents to around 16 assists/game while dealing out 21+/game themselves. They were league leaders most of the year with a +5 (or there-abouts) assist differential.

This season the Phoenix Suns lead the league with a whopping 27 assists/game while also ranking 1st just ahead of the Spurs in opposition apg at 15.94/game. That gives PHX a bloated +11.05 :wow assist differential per game. The Pistons (4.93) and Spurs (4.00) currently are the nearest to PHX in this category, ranking a distant 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Meaningless aberration or significant indicator?

Why?

[Jimcs50]

Last season, the Spurs held opponents to around 16 assists/game while dealing out 21+/game themselves. They were league leaders most of the year with a +5 (or there-abouts) assist differential.

This season the Phoenix Suns lead the league with a whopping 27 assists/game while also ranking 1st just ahead of the Spurs in opposition apg at 15.94/game. That gives PHX a bloated +11.05 :wow assist differential per game. The Pistons (4.93) and Spurs (4.00) currently are the nearest to PHX in this category, ranking a distant 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Meaningless aberration or significant indicator?

Why?


Steve Nash

[Kori Ellis]

Steve Nash

He was there last season too.

[Solid D]

Steve Nash

You've addressed half of the issue...the 27 assists per game.

[Despot]

Amare used to create his own shots, thereby stealing possible assists, now they have more chances to set each other up? This coupled with a still fast paced offense.

Easy to create you own shot against phx, thus the low opp assist #'s.

[strangeweather]

Last season, the Spurs held opponents to around 16 assists/game while dealing out 21+/game themselves. They were league leaders most of the year with a +5 (or there-abouts) assist differential.

This season the Phoenix Suns lead the league with a whopping 27 assists/game while also ranking 1st just ahead of the Spurs in opposition apg at 15.94/game. That gives PHX a bloated +11.05 :wow assist differential per game. The Pistons (4.93) and Spurs (4.00) currently are the nearest to PHX in this category, ranking a distant 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Meaningless aberration or significant indicator?

Why?

IMO, assist differential is fairly meaningless, because assists per game and assists allowed per game don't compare in the same way that, say, points scored and points allowed do.

Assists allowed is very important, because it normally demonstrates how effective a team's defense is at taking opponents out of their offense.

Strictly speaking assists allowed per 100 possessions would be a more accurate number, and the fact that Phoenix is allowing so few assists despite the high number of possessions in an average Phoenix game seems to say that they're defending incredibly well.

Despite the excellent W-L record, the Spurs still aren't playing as well as Pop would like, and I think that's demonstrated in their assists allowed (which can improve some), and in the fact that their assists per game isn't as good as it could be. Hopefully the numbers will be better by the all-star break.

[Solid D]

Despot, you make a valid point as did Jim for the offensive side of the court. What about the other end? Why so low? It's not as though the Suns aren't playing any defense and letting teams run at will.

[Frenchise player]

Incredible stat, it can't last much longer but it is still unbelivable after 15 games.
The 27 assists/game isn't that surprising. Steve Nash is still the best passer in the league and Boris Diaw is really making an impact. Phoenix has two tremendous playmaker, one inside and the other outside of the paint, that's unique in the league. Diaw and Nash average more than half of those assists. They dish to good scorers who have just to finish the job.

But the defensive stat is the most impressive. Part can be explained by the global defensive improvement of the team. But another reason may be their love for advantaging matchup. When they put Diaw as center and Marion as PF, the other teams may want to force one on one matchup to take advantage of the size advantage. That tactic doesn't lead to many assist.

This early in the season some games like the one vs Portland may affect too much the stats for them to last very long, but it is rather impressive that the Suns are playing this well without their franchise player.

[boutons]

In absence of Amare or any dominant goto big guy, I think the Suns have had to make a big adjustment which includes sharing the ball, moving without the ball, resulting in the huge AST stats. Credit has to go to Mike for coaching them that way and for getting the Suns to buy into his coaching.

Starting out 4-5 and looking pretty lost without Amare's 26 and 9, they have streaked to 12-5. Their AST stats are truly amazing, and Steve makes only 11 of those 27 AST.

Suns are
@Clips (for the Pacific div leader's spot),
@Mavs,
@Grizz

... in the next 7 days, so we'll see if they can keep their win streak going.

======== edit:

What does AST per 100 possessions indicate?
imo, not much. who are cares about AST per possesions that don't score?

Rather, I think its AST/FG that shows how strong team play is.

normalizing the AST offense:

Spurs are 373 AST / 684 FGM = 55 AST / 100 FGM

Suns are 459 AST / 697 FGM = 66 AST / 100 FGM < winner

normalizing the AST defense:

Spurs allow 301 AST / 612 FGM = 49 AST / 100 FGM

Suns allow 271 AST/ 631 FGM = 42 AST / 100 FGM < winner


Suns are definitely better in the AST game compared to Spurs.
And I think this season's Spurs are worse in AST vs last season's Spurs.

[Despot]

Despot, you make a valid point as did Jim for the offensive side of the court. What about the other end? Why so low? It's not as though the Suns aren't playing any defense and letting teams run at will.

Style of basketball played, I must admit that I haven't seen many Suns games yet this year, seeing the scores so far, defense seems improved, but it seems that they are still controlling the pace of the game, which they are used to on offense, hence better efficiency and passing on the run creating easy assists. When a team is not as used to a fast pace, instead of passing the rock on the break, they keep it themselves, or throw the ball away creating TO's instead of assists, or simply missing layups. Another reason may be is that when teams fall behind quickly, shot selection suffers, and they may start hoisting up shots w/o passing.

So, I really don't feel that low opp. assist numbers necessarily validates a teams defense. Do I think it can indicate so??? Yes, see the spurs, flailing arms, disrupting traffic, Blocks, kicked balls, general irritations breaks up assists. Do I believe that good defense is the reason the Suns keep that stat so low? No.
Maybe after I see more Suns games, my opinion will change.

What is the number of assists per game for each of the teams in the league. Do teams vary significantly from 16 per game?

[whottt]

I happen to think assist differential and opp assists are very important stats...especially with regards to the Spurs. The Spurs D seems to be predicated on disrupting opposition passing lanes and when they have their D really turned up they stifle the opponent's assists opportunities.

IIRC the last two times the Spurs won the NBA title they lead the NBA in opp assists allowed per game and differential.

What does this mean with Phoenix? Phoenix should have a pretty high differential due to their offense, the surprising factor is their asssists allowed per game...I chalk it up to an early season fluke due to good ball handling and shooting on their part, thus limiting their opponents assist opportunities. Not to mention the fact that most teams are probably trying to stay in a half court offense against them....and probably this early in the season a lot of teams are still prone to playing one on one basketball...something very easy to do against a soft Suns D...


I am almost certain they will not finish the season leading in opp assists allowed per game. But it won't surprise me if they finish the year leading in differential.

[101A]

Suns have only played 15 games - and 10 of those were on their home floor.

They have only beaten 3 teams with better than 500 records - and only one of those on the road (G.S. last night)

I'm not saying they are not legit, but the stats probably won't hold as the schedules equalize.

[Solid D]

Some good thoughts here, so far. I must say, nothing against anyone else, but Frenchise Player has game and some excellent observations.

I agree that Diaw has made a huge difference in this team, as has Raja Bell and even James Jones. They create matchup problems. The Spurs have spent the past couple of years looking for length at the wing positions and the Suns have a glut of them. The Suns are currently 7th in opp. FG% and over the past 9 games they are holding their opponents just under 90 ppg.

[Solid D]

I would also add that PHX transition D is so much better this year. Over the last 10 games leading up to the Golden St. game, the Suns were averaging allowing only 9 fast break ppg. The last time the Suns lost vs. the Spurs, they held the Spurs 7 fast break points.

[Useruser666]

The Suns have no oine to create their own shot, hence a good portion of their makes are from assists(Nash). No Amare, and the defense that was there might have been figured out (a weakness) since it was new last year.

[MiNuS]

Phoenix will continue to look great in diff with assisists due to them not playing defense.

They are like a team that has premature ejaculation problems.They're too quick to shoot. No patience.

[Despot]

^^^ LOL

I still would like to know what the number off assists the rest of the teams in the league are holding opponents to, anyone have a site??

[ShoogarBear]

Okay.

I have a relatively complete and sophisticated statistical analysis I did from the basketballreference.com database to determine exactly which stats do and do not correlate with championships. I did this is back in May but never got around to writing it up.

This weekend, I will redo it including the 2004-2005 stats and post the thing.

Now that I have written tis, I guess I have to do it.

[sandman]

Amare used to create his own shots, thereby stealing possible assists, now they have more chances to set each other up? This coupled with a still fast paced offense.

Now I am going to have to go look it up, but I believe that when Nash was out for a few games last year, Amare couldn't score to save his life.

If taking lobs for dunks and hiding behind the weak-side defender for dump offs from Nash drives is creating his own shot, then Nazr is a nimble-footed, velvet-handed gazelle.

[Useruser666]

You get back in transition defense quicker when the first player with the ball across half court shoots it!

[Useruser666]

Now I am going to have to go look it up, but I believe that when Nash was out for a few games last year, Amare couldn't score to save his life.

If taking lobs for dunks and hiding behind the weak-side defender for dump offs from Nash drives is creating his own shot, then Nazr is a nimble-footed, velvet-handed gazelle.

I was thinking more about the shooters in Johnson and Q.

[Despot]

Now I am going to have to go look it up, but I believe that when Nash was out for a few games last year, Amare couldn't score to save his life.

If taking lobs for dunks and hiding behind the weak-side defender for dump offs from Nash drives is creating his own shot, then Nazr is a nimble-footed, velvet-handed gazelle.


Amare with Nash out
1-14-05 26 points 48%
1-15-05 26 points 38%
1-17-05 16 points 28% Detroit
1-19-05 8 points 36% Ok, bad games
2-26-05 33 points 65%
2-27-05 27 points 64%

ESPN did not have the stats for the other game Nash missed

[2centsworth]

sample size is too small. but a possible explanation is that teams that play phoenix try to play one on one basketball instead of staying within their offense.

[sandman]

Oh, I agree that they had a much greater ability to create their own shots last year as compared to this year. I am just not agreeing with another poster who said that Amare creates his own shots. I highly doubt that their assist numbers will drop exclusively based on his return to the lineup.

The need to play team ball is a heavy demand for them this year, and so far they have done it well. Mike D seems to have taken this opportunity to infuse a team mentality as compared to where they were last year. As noted, the competition level has been mediocre and mostly in home games, so lets come back around in another 15 games and see if the numbers are the same.

[sandman]

Now I am going to have to go look it up, but I believe that when Nash was out for a few games last year, Amare couldn't score to save his life.

If taking lobs for dunks and hiding behind the weak-side defender for dump offs from Nash drives is creating his own shot, then Nazr is a nimble-footed, velvet-handed gazelle.


Amare

Let me rephrase...

If Amare is cosidered a shot creator by taking lobs and underneath passes from Nash drives, then Nazr is a big man with soft hands and quick feet. My apologies on the ambiguous sarcasm.

[Useruser666]

Let me rephrase...

If Amare is cosidered a shot creator by taking lobs and underneath passes from Nash drives, then Nazr is a big man with soft hands and quick feet. My apologies on the ambiguous sarcasm.

What percetage of Amares mfg are put backs?

[Solid D]

^^^ LOL

I still would like to know what the number off assists the rest of the teams in the league are holding opponents to, anyone have a site??

Check NBA.com sortable team stats. An average NBA team (say, 15th in rank) dishes out 20 assists/game. It's about the same for assists allowed (20 apg)for a middle of the pack team.

The leaders normally are up above 25 apg and the leaders in fewest assists allowed are around 16 apg.

[sandman]

What percetage of Amares mfg are put backs?

Well, last year he averaged 17 shots a game and almost 3 offensive rebounds a game. Assuming he went back up with every one of those rebounds, it is still only 20% of his shots, and 17 shots a game is not that many compared to many scorers in the league. Also consider that almost 30% of all of his points last year came from the charity stripe.

[Despot]

Check NBA.com sortable team stats. An average NBA team (say, 15th in rank) dishes out 20 assists/game. It's about the same for assists allowed (20 apg)for a middle of the pack team.

The leaders normally are up above 25 apg and the leaders in fewest assists allowed are around 16 apg.

Thanks! I was curious just how well they were supposedly doing, and if everyone was just overreacting to the point differential.
I still say it's an anomally, either because of the way they play or the competition they have played lately as posted by someone else earlier.
Either way, don't see it lasting the entire year.

[sandman]

Thanks! I was curious just how well they were supposedly doing, and if everyone was just overreacting to the point differential.
I still say it's an anomally, either because of the way they play or the competition they have played lately as posted by someone else earlier.
Either way, don't see it lasting the entire year.

Yep. Go on the road without your stud big man and you can get humbled pretty quickly.

[strangeweather]

sample size is too small. but a possible explanation is that teams that play phoenix try to play one on one basketball instead of staying within their offense.

That's a good alternative hypothesis.

[strangeweather]

What does AST per 100 possessions indicate?
imo, not much. who are cares about AST per possesions that don't score?

Rather, I think its AST/FG that shows how strong team play is.


You're right, per AST/FG is a better isolation of assists and overall team play.

I like looking at all sorts of team tendencies, all scaled by overall possessions -- how many FT they get, how many shots, assists, rebounds, etc.