View Full Version : Hey Nbadan!

08-30-2004, 12:21 PM
Checked Rassmussen lately? Bush got a bigger pre-convention bounce than Kerry got, post-convention.

That's gotta smart, eh?

Oh yeah, for the first time, Bush is ahead in Electoral votes on both, Rassmussen and Election Projection...

Bush in a landslide...and, remember, I called it way back in February.

Oh yeah, just why is Kerry hiding this week? Seems he should be out there adding "balance" to the Republican message. Hmmm...interesting question, I think.

08-30-2004, 12:25 PM
"I called it way before you did"

08-30-2004, 12:31 PM
Nah, actually, I predicted a two-term Bush presidency when he was still in his first term as Texas Governor...but, lacking proof, I'll just have to point back to February when I started making the claim here.

Tommy Duncan
08-30-2004, 12:49 PM
Practically speaking, for Kerry to win he needs to have a sudden conversion to opposing the Iraq war and then hammer Bush on that incessantly for the next 2 months so that Bush has to start defending his decision to invade and in general looks like something other than a decisive leader. Otherwise, Kerry is done. Incumbent presidents who are voted out of office look like Jimmy Carter and George Herbert Walker Bush. Presidents who had low job approval ratings (in the 30s), looked weak, were facing strong challengers (Reagan and Clinton) who hammered them relentlessly on the major issues of the day, and who did not have their party base enthused and consolidated behind them.

08-30-2004, 01:15 PM
IMO, it looks as if Kerry has some major work ahead if he's going to pull this election out.

Look for Bush to talk about 9/11, 9/11, the war on terrorism, oh and did I mention 9/11?

08-30-2004, 01:22 PM
i thought polls didnt matter, and the most important one was on november 2nd? i guess that doesnt apply when they show Bush with a lead

08-30-2004, 01:27 PM
I'm sure that was more of a dig on NBADan's incessant posting of polls when Kerry shows to be on top than what it's results are.

Of course, that is Yonivore. So maybe not. :lol

Tommy Duncan
08-30-2004, 01:29 PM
I'm not going by the polls save for the president's job approval rating. In many respects the Kerry campaign adopted a strategy that an incumbent would use. One that has him positioned like his opponent, only a little bit better. I cannot recall the last time a challenger used such a strategy and won. Challengers win by being bold and aggressive against incumbents who have weak approval among the population and who have weak support in their own party.

08-30-2004, 01:33 PM
bush will be ahead for a little while, then kerry will start gaining again, and it will go back and forth until the week before the election, when people will finally settle on a choice...hows that for a prediction

Tommy Duncan
08-30-2004, 01:42 PM
Kerry will only have a chance of winning if he can put Bush consistently on the defensive, specifically about how Bush has prosecuted the war on terrorism.

The problem for the Kerry campaign is (as I have pointed out before) the next two weeks are very favorable to Bush. He could very well solidify a lead from now to the 3rd anniversary of 9/11 and hold it over the next 7 weeks.

Kerry has not defined the election. Bush has. Kerry needs to change this quick for his sake.

08-30-2004, 01:45 PM
a lot of republicans claim that democrats may underestimate Bush, and that could be dangerous...however, i think the same could be said about Kerry...i wouldnt underestimate him either...it will be a fun next 2 months, thats for sure

Tommy Duncan
08-30-2004, 01:50 PM
I might think that about Kerry if George W. Bush wasn't the best defender of Kerry on the central issue of Kerry's own campaign.

Kerry needs to come up with a better strategy than "I'm not Bush" or this election will be over at the end of this week.

08-30-2004, 04:20 PM

"Of course, that is Yonivore.
Hey! I resemble that remark!

Actually, it was a dig at Nbadan. I've been following RasmussenReports.com ever since he was throwing it around as the definitive poll several months ago. I'm not sure about ElectionProjection.com, but I think he introduced the forum to them as well.

Bush in a landslide. --Source: Yonivore's gut instinct.

Never misunderestimate George W. Bush! That man has a strategerie.