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View Full Version : Getting Ready for the Stretch Run



Pooh
02-19-2004, 11:15 PM
By Conrad Brunner
Indianapolis, Feb. 16, 2004

Back to business.

Though they had a few extra days to anticipate, then enjoy, the frivolity of the NBA All-Star Weekend, the Pacers have little time to put it in the past. After an unusual 6 p.m. practice tonight scheduled to allow everyone as much time as possible to return to Indianapolis from their various vacation spots - the Pacers return to action Tuesday night in Conseco Fieldhouse. And it's not just a game, it's a big game against New Orleans, a budding rival in the Central Division.

With just 29 games left in the regular season, we take a look back, and ahead, to help you limber up for the stretch fun, er, run.

CHECKING OUT THE COMPETITION

By any standard, the Pacers are comfortably ahead of their competition in the Eastern Conference. At 39-14, they have a 6.5 game lead on Detroit (33-21) and a 7-game lead on New Jersey (31-20). They already have won the season series from the Pistons and are 2-1 against the Nets. At their current pace (a winning percentage of .736), they would finish 60-22, which would set a franchise NBA regular-season record. The top three teams in the East appear locked in, but New Orleans, Milwaukee and Toronto are all battling for the final homecourt advantage spot, while the Knicks, Celtics, 76ers, Heat and Cavs all are jockeying for the final playoff berths.

The Pacers have fared well against quality competition. They’re 19-10 against the other 15 teams currently in playoff position, 11-5 against the East and 8-5 against the West. Overall, they’re 11-6 against the Western Conference, the best such mark among East teams. The only other East teams with winning records against the West are Detroit (11-8) and Boston (9-8) . Eleven Western Conference teams have winning marks against the East, led by the Kings (15-2).

LOOKING DOWN THE STRETCH

With just 29 games remaining after this curiously timed “midseason” break (the All-Star Game was pushed back to avoid conflicting with the Super Bowl), the schedule favors the Pacers the rest of the way. They have 15 home games and 14 on the road, with just one prolonged road trip – a four-gamer to Golden State, the Clippers, Utah and Denver from March 2-7. They have just five more sets of back-to-backs. And just 10 of the final 29 games are against teams currently above .500.

WINNING THE NUMBERS GAME

The Pacers have a number of players among the league leaders. Jermaine O’Neal is third in double-doubles (32), fifth in blocked shots (2.65), eighth in rebounds (10.4) and 16th in scoring (20.3). Ron Artest is third in steals (2.06). Reggie Miller is third in assist-turnover ratio (4.0), ninth in 3-point percentage (.425) and 16th in free-throw percentage (.858) . Jeff Foster is 11th in rebounds per 48 minutes (14.7) and 14th in offensive rebounds per game (2.9). Austin Croshere ranks 12th in 3-point attempts per 48 minutes (2.83).

The team defense ranks third in the NBA in points allowed (84.8) , which would blow away the franchise record of 89.9 set in the 1997-98 season. The Pacers are also fifth against the 3-point shot (.326), eighth in steals (8.7) and eighth in turnovers forced (15.9).


CLEAR SPACE IN THE TROPHY CASE

After enjoying places of prominence during the All-Star Weekend with two players (starter O’Neal and reserve Artest) as well as the coaching staff - not to mention Slam-Dunk champion Fred Jones - the Pacers should be active in the postseason awards, as well. O’Neal is a legitimate MVP candidate. Artest is being mentioned for Defensive Player of the Year as well as Most Improved. Carlisle is a leading Coach of the Year candidate, and Harrington could win the Sixth Man award.

MORE MILLER MILESTONES

Having passed Charles Barkley to move into 14th on the NBA’s all-time scoring list earlier this season, Reggie Miller has a few more targets in his sights. He needs 13 more games played (he currently has 1,295) to pass Buck Williams into seventh place all-time. With 45,704, he needs 932 minutes to pass Robert Parish for seventh-place all-time. He might not make it this season; at his current average of 29.1 minutes, he needs 32 games to pass Parish. He won’t make any more moves up the scoring chart this year, however. He’s 771 points behind No. 13 Patrick Ewing, and would need to average 26.6 the rest of the year to get there.


THE PLUS-MINUS STORY

To no one’s surprise, O’Neal is the team leader in individual plus-minus both overall (plus 290 for the season) and per game (plus 5.7). Ron Artest is second (plus 273 overall, plus 5.4 per game). But the leader per-minute is Jeff Foster, who is plus 10.1 per 48 minutes played, followed by Jamaal Tinsley (plus 9.2) and Reggie Miller (plus 8.3).

Reserves were hot coming into the All-Star break. In the last three games, Anthony Johnson (plus 34), Fred Jones (plus 26) and Scot Pollard (plus 23) all posted major gains. Austin Croshere was plus 27 in the last two games. But the most consistent climber has been Tinsley. After a bad start in which he was minus 28 in his first five games, Tinsley has been plus 161 in his last 23 appearances. In that span, he has had just three games in which he posted a minus total. On the downside, Al Harrington has struggled of late, going minus 29 in his last 11 appearances.


ANOTHER KIND OF PLUS-MINUS

Coaches have long used their own plus-minus system to give a better perspective on where teams really rank. Teams get a plus for every road victory and a minus for every home loss. By that measure, the Pacers are plus 13 (18 road wins, five home losses), which is seven ahead of both New Jersey and Detroit (plus 6). No other East team is better than plus 1. Interestingly, Miami (minus 2) makes the biggest jump in the standings using this system. The Heat, 10th in the standings, are seventh in plus-minus because they’ve played 30 road games already, more than anyone in the NBA. So Miami could well be a factor in the playoff race as the schedule becomes more favorable.

Out West, Minnesota (plus 12) has a better standing than Sacramento (plus 10). The Kings have only played 23 road games, while the Timberwolves are 18-9 on the road, tied with the Pacers for the best mark in the league. The Spurs (also plus 10) are tied with the Kings in plus-minus, though they trail them by 3.5 games in the standings.