Bruno
03-06-2006, 09:36 AM
http://www.nysun.com/article/28586?page_no=1
By JOHN HOLLINGER
March 6, 2006
Too often, we measure the strength of a team by how well it does when everything is going right. The Golden State Warriors, for instance, look at last year's run after the Baron Davis trade - when their whole team was healthy and clicking - and think that's "normal" for them.
In truth, pro basketball teams are nearly always in a state of disrepair. Either somebody is hurt, or an important player is in a slump, or there's a rough patch of schedule, or something else is going on that keeps a team from reaching its peak. Only the rare exceptions (such as this year's Pistons) keep clicking for 82 games.
The real measure of a team is not how it does when all the stars are aligned, but rather how well it fares when it hits a few bumps in the road. That's why one key question I look at, when assessing championship contenders, is "How many things would have to go wrong for this team to no longer have a shot at the title?" Even for some of the league's best teams - Detroit, for example, or Phoenix - this number is surprisingly small.
But for the San Antonio Spurs, the number is very large indeed. The Spurs have had all kinds of things go wrong for them this year, yet here they are at 46-12. They're tied for the best record in the Western Conference after Thursday's key win over Dallas, and sit only one game behind Detroit in the loss column for the best record in the league.
In fact, this could be the best season in San Antonio's illustrious history. At their current pace, the Spurs would win a franchise-record 65 games - and even that may underestimate things. The Spurs have been picking up the pace of late, winning 25 of their past 30 games, and there's reason to believe they could perform even better down the stretch.
To see why, let's look at all the things that haven't gone San Antonio's way this season. We'll start with their best player, Tim Duncan.
Battling a persistent case of plantar fasciitis, Duncan hasn't been his usual dominant self, especially on offense. In the Spurs' 27 games since the start of the new year, he's broken the 20-point barrier only four times. His season scoring average of 19.1 is the lowest mark of his pro career, as are his 48.1% shooting and 2.1 blocks.
The good news, such as it is, is that it appears the injury isn't getting any worse. While it's painful and limits Duncan at times, he can stay on the court and may be able to improve his output once he gets used to his new limitations. However, chances are he won't be back at full strength until he gets a month or two to rest over the summer.
Then there's Manu Ginobili. The sparkplug behind San Antonio's championship run a year ago, Ginobili has been in and out of the lineup all season with a variety of injuries. His daring playing style probably contributes to this problem, because he's constantly drawing contact and contorting his body at odd angles to finish his drives.
At 28, Ginobili is at an age where many players of this type begin breaking down. While his overall output hasn't declined much, his availability has: Manu has missed 13 games this season and played sparingly in several others. Even when he plays, he's averaging two minutes per game fewer than a year ago.
Beyond the two stars, the Spurs' free agents have been disappointments too. San Antonio was overjoyed in the offseason to bring in two veteran warhorses to solidify the bench: Michael Finley and Nick Van Exel. With that duo firing away, the Spurs figured, their second unit would have more firepower than the previous season's mildly disappointing group.
It hasn't worked out that way. At 34, Van Exel is having his third straight poor shooting year and isn't creating shots with nearly the frequency he once did; put simply, he seems to have very little left in the tank. Finley, 33, hasn't fared much better, shooting a career low 39.4% and, like Van Exel, creating dramatically fewer opportunities than in previous seasons.
If all that isn't bad enough, the Spurs have worsened things with a few self-inflicted wounds. Until late February, they started Rasho Nesterovic ahead of the more productive Nazr Mohammed. And they have kept Finley and Van Exel in the rotation ahead of two players, Brent Barry and Beno Udrih, who have been more productive in their limited minutes.
That's a lot of wrongs, yet the 46-12 record it adds up to is very, very right. How have the Spurs done it? With one glaring exception to the everything went-wrong premise: Tony Parker. The blindingly fast Frenchman has put his career into another gear, becoming the Spurs' leading scorer (19.3 ppg) ahead of both Ginobili and Duncan while shooting a sizzling 55.0% from the floor.
The key for Parker has been the complete abandonment of his jump shot. A year ago Parker, took two 3-pointers per game but made only 27.6%. He also attempted a great many mid-range jumpers when defenders went under the screen against the pick-and-roll, and his accuracy wasn't much better. As a result, Parker wasn't useful as more than a third option behind Duncan and Ginobili.
This year, however, he's had a realization. Parker is so fast that even if a defender goes under the screen and tries to meet him on the other side, he can still get to that spot faster nine times out of 10 and either draw a foul or earn a lay-up. Thanks to his amazing jets, the 6-foot-2-inch, 177-pound Parker is one of the league's leaders in points in the paint.
In the bigger picture, the Spurs' success isn't just about Parker - it's about a team that accumulated so many assets that one or two of them were extremely likely to play at a high level. The decline of Duncan and the injuries to Ginobili would have been disastrous for teams lacking the secondary weapons to overcome such a huge loss. In San Antonio, however, Parker and others pick up the slack, and it ends up being a mere speed bump on the way to another successful season.
Thus, while Detroit's blistering start caught our attention and Dallas and Phoenix are writing amazing stories this season, San Antonio is quietly piling up wins despite injuries to its two best players. That, in a nutshell, is the difference between the Spurs and the rest of the league. Every other team enters the season hoping that if everything goes right, they'll contend for a title. The Spurs enter the season knowing that even if lots of things go wrong, they'll still contend for a title. And that's why, come June, the smart money is on San Antonio.
By JOHN HOLLINGER
March 6, 2006
Too often, we measure the strength of a team by how well it does when everything is going right. The Golden State Warriors, for instance, look at last year's run after the Baron Davis trade - when their whole team was healthy and clicking - and think that's "normal" for them.
In truth, pro basketball teams are nearly always in a state of disrepair. Either somebody is hurt, or an important player is in a slump, or there's a rough patch of schedule, or something else is going on that keeps a team from reaching its peak. Only the rare exceptions (such as this year's Pistons) keep clicking for 82 games.
The real measure of a team is not how it does when all the stars are aligned, but rather how well it fares when it hits a few bumps in the road. That's why one key question I look at, when assessing championship contenders, is "How many things would have to go wrong for this team to no longer have a shot at the title?" Even for some of the league's best teams - Detroit, for example, or Phoenix - this number is surprisingly small.
But for the San Antonio Spurs, the number is very large indeed. The Spurs have had all kinds of things go wrong for them this year, yet here they are at 46-12. They're tied for the best record in the Western Conference after Thursday's key win over Dallas, and sit only one game behind Detroit in the loss column for the best record in the league.
In fact, this could be the best season in San Antonio's illustrious history. At their current pace, the Spurs would win a franchise-record 65 games - and even that may underestimate things. The Spurs have been picking up the pace of late, winning 25 of their past 30 games, and there's reason to believe they could perform even better down the stretch.
To see why, let's look at all the things that haven't gone San Antonio's way this season. We'll start with their best player, Tim Duncan.
Battling a persistent case of plantar fasciitis, Duncan hasn't been his usual dominant self, especially on offense. In the Spurs' 27 games since the start of the new year, he's broken the 20-point barrier only four times. His season scoring average of 19.1 is the lowest mark of his pro career, as are his 48.1% shooting and 2.1 blocks.
The good news, such as it is, is that it appears the injury isn't getting any worse. While it's painful and limits Duncan at times, he can stay on the court and may be able to improve his output once he gets used to his new limitations. However, chances are he won't be back at full strength until he gets a month or two to rest over the summer.
Then there's Manu Ginobili. The sparkplug behind San Antonio's championship run a year ago, Ginobili has been in and out of the lineup all season with a variety of injuries. His daring playing style probably contributes to this problem, because he's constantly drawing contact and contorting his body at odd angles to finish his drives.
At 28, Ginobili is at an age where many players of this type begin breaking down. While his overall output hasn't declined much, his availability has: Manu has missed 13 games this season and played sparingly in several others. Even when he plays, he's averaging two minutes per game fewer than a year ago.
Beyond the two stars, the Spurs' free agents have been disappointments too. San Antonio was overjoyed in the offseason to bring in two veteran warhorses to solidify the bench: Michael Finley and Nick Van Exel. With that duo firing away, the Spurs figured, their second unit would have more firepower than the previous season's mildly disappointing group.
It hasn't worked out that way. At 34, Van Exel is having his third straight poor shooting year and isn't creating shots with nearly the frequency he once did; put simply, he seems to have very little left in the tank. Finley, 33, hasn't fared much better, shooting a career low 39.4% and, like Van Exel, creating dramatically fewer opportunities than in previous seasons.
If all that isn't bad enough, the Spurs have worsened things with a few self-inflicted wounds. Until late February, they started Rasho Nesterovic ahead of the more productive Nazr Mohammed. And they have kept Finley and Van Exel in the rotation ahead of two players, Brent Barry and Beno Udrih, who have been more productive in their limited minutes.
That's a lot of wrongs, yet the 46-12 record it adds up to is very, very right. How have the Spurs done it? With one glaring exception to the everything went-wrong premise: Tony Parker. The blindingly fast Frenchman has put his career into another gear, becoming the Spurs' leading scorer (19.3 ppg) ahead of both Ginobili and Duncan while shooting a sizzling 55.0% from the floor.
The key for Parker has been the complete abandonment of his jump shot. A year ago Parker, took two 3-pointers per game but made only 27.6%. He also attempted a great many mid-range jumpers when defenders went under the screen against the pick-and-roll, and his accuracy wasn't much better. As a result, Parker wasn't useful as more than a third option behind Duncan and Ginobili.
This year, however, he's had a realization. Parker is so fast that even if a defender goes under the screen and tries to meet him on the other side, he can still get to that spot faster nine times out of 10 and either draw a foul or earn a lay-up. Thanks to his amazing jets, the 6-foot-2-inch, 177-pound Parker is one of the league's leaders in points in the paint.
In the bigger picture, the Spurs' success isn't just about Parker - it's about a team that accumulated so many assets that one or two of them were extremely likely to play at a high level. The decline of Duncan and the injuries to Ginobili would have been disastrous for teams lacking the secondary weapons to overcome such a huge loss. In San Antonio, however, Parker and others pick up the slack, and it ends up being a mere speed bump on the way to another successful season.
Thus, while Detroit's blistering start caught our attention and Dallas and Phoenix are writing amazing stories this season, San Antonio is quietly piling up wins despite injuries to its two best players. That, in a nutshell, is the difference between the Spurs and the rest of the league. Every other team enters the season hoping that if everything goes right, they'll contend for a title. The Spurs enter the season knowing that even if lots of things go wrong, they'll still contend for a title. And that's why, come June, the smart money is on San Antonio.