In the past 10 games ...

[Kori Ellis]

Spurs opponents are shooting nearly 47%, which is 20th in the league during that time.

What's the reason for the Spurs drop off in FG% D?

Not enough Rasho? :)

[MoSpur]

It could be. Rasho is good at rotating on D. Nazr still doesn't get it. To me Bowen hasn't been himself. Guys are putting up big numbers on him. Sure he isn't going to stop or own guys on opposing teams night in and night out. However, it just seems more often now.

[leemajors]

i don't think bowen's intensity or defense has gone down a notch or two - he is still contesting every shot, he has just faced some great players who were hitting their shots. our d should bounce back soon enough as long as they keep at it. nazr does need to do something, anything to make up for his lapses though. missing rotations isn't the end of the world if you are helping duncan grab boards.

[Kori Ellis]

Ray Allen and Carmelo had good games against the Spurs(Bowen) in the last 10 days. But they aren't the reason the numbers have escalated.

I think FG% Defensive is a point of concern that has to be fixed before the postseason. As much as everyone makes fun of Dallas' D, they are holding opponents to 43% in the last 10 games (44% on the season).

[Shaolin-Style]

bring on more sho

[Spurologist]

Spurs opponents are shooting nearly 47%, which is 20th in the league during that time.

What's the reason for the Spurs drop off in FG% D?

Not enough Rasho? :)

Yes our D has dropped, but our record during that stretch is 7-3. We seem to be playing just good enough to win. Bruce has played excellent D, but some stars has just gone off on him. He can't do much when his oppostion is making contested jumpers. Nazr defense has been suspect at times, but he has been steady for the most part at the center position. Tim's lack of lateral movement against quicker frontline players is a concern. It's also about playing better on offense. A bad possesion out of an offense set can lead to easy buckets on the other end especially against teams like Golden State, Phoenix, LA, Houston.

The spurs need to take their D to the next level like they often do this time of year. You can't turn on the switch come playoff defensively (team defense). Ask Horry about the switch on offense.

[timvp]

Beno has been the primary backup point guard for the last ten games. But, but, but it's just a coincidence. Beno Udrih is the Michael Jordan of backup defensive point guards.

:drunk

[ChumpDumper]

I know he likes stability, but Pop has to be more flexible with the rotation. The roster is loaded and on any given night one guy from the Nazr/Rasho or Finley/Barry duos is going to be the better choice -- and it won't always jibe with his preconceived notions about matchups.

[timvp]

Points allowed per 100 possessions:

Parker -- 99.5
Van Exel -- 102.6
Beno -- 104.7

I wonder if those who said that Beno is not only a better defender than Van Exel but also a better defender than Parker still believe that.

[leemajors]

Beno has been the primary backup point guard for the last ten games. But, but, but it's just a coincidence. Beno Udrih is the Michael Jordan of backup defensive point guards.

:drunk

well before that it was van exel. he's not a better defender than beno is he?

[BigVee]

Surely a combo of things but Duncan's defense continues to deterioate. He slams the ball against the upright about 5 times a game now. Easy put backs because he doesn't rebound boost the percentage, etc. Not putting it all on him certainly. But, this year he is an average defender at best.....not the excellent one of the past.

[Kori Ellis]

Do you all how bad 47% is for the Spurs?

Normally they hover around 40-41 when things are going good.

The Nets are holding opponents to 38% or so in their last 10.

[timvp]

well before that it was van exel. he's not a better defender than beno is he?

They are close but I'd give the slight edge to NVE due to experience. Beno gets beat off the dribble and isn't always the fastest in his rotation.

[ShoogarBear]

First off, anyone who uses only FG% to determine individual defense is a fool. You can play the best defense possible against Kobe or Jordan, or even a lesser-tier shooter like Micahel Redd, and if they're on, forget about it, just be glad they don't get 50. "Being lit up" != "playing bad defense". Similarly, an Allen Iverson can be getting good looks and still go 6-20 and it doesn't mean you played great defense. So statistical arguments about individual defense are meaningless; you have to actually watch the game.

Having said that, Bruce's defense against Allen wasn't his best, but it wasn't horrible. And Allen was definitely hot. And he's got the quickest release in the game, so closing him out is tough.

The major problem with the Spurs defense I've seen is that the paint is no longer closed. Guards seem to be able to penetrate from the top of the key off PnRs a lot more, a mortal sin in Pop's system. And it seems that other forwards are having a much easier time getting into the paint. Maybe that's a result of less Rasho. Horry has also had more than a few lapses on interior defense. I'm thinking that the Spurs' biggest need isn't the "long 3" but an athletic 4.

It just makes you appreciate even more what an old, creaky David Robinson was still able to accomplish.

[boutons_]

Let's see, Kori sets 'em up, and timvp knocks 'em down? :)

The Rowan and Martin of SpursTalk!

Tim anchors the defense, and he's clearly not doing that as well as past years, either due to PF or due to policy of keeping Tim from getting injured.

Nazr of course is totally counter-productive on defense, and if he's not scoring nor getting RBs as in vs Sonics, why TF isn't Rasho in there more? He can't do any worse than Nazr's zero contribuion.

Remember a few games where "Razr" was giving us a big double double? Where's that gone?

Spurs have given up a lot of points in the paint this season, and lost the paint a lot vs nearly always winning the paint and RBs last season.

And it's not "just one game" as the homer's love to whine.
It's this whole month of March and before.

I think the Champions are bored, resting on their laurels. They won't "stoop to conquer" during the season. It's a very common problem of Champions and a major obstacle to repeating.

Bad RBs, mediocre defense, just bad hustle all around.

[ShoogarBear]

And, also, as BigVee correctly points out, Tim Duncan isn't Tim Duncan these days.

[Kori Ellis]

The major problem with the Spurs defense I've seen is that the paint is no longer closed. Guards seem to be able to penetrate from the top of the key off PnRs a lot more, a mortal sin in Pop's system. And it seems that other forwards are having a much easier time getting into the pain. Maybe that's a result of less Rasho. Horry has also had more than a few lapses on interior defense. I'm think that the Spurs' biggest need isn't the "long 3" an athletic 4.

:tu

[timvp]

Too bad Rasho doesn't rebound and is too soft offensively. If he played 38 minutes a game, the Spurs would be setting FG% defense records.

[Bandit2981]

I think lately its been their transition defense. Unless the spurs are gearing up to play Phoenix, it doesnt seem like they have the same mindset to get back in transition from game to game, and thats where teams have been killing us. Ive noticed a lot of confusion about who picks up who when running back on defense as well, causing horrible mismatches and over-rotating which frees up the lane and wide open jumpers. Other than that, the Spurs need to shore up their pick and roll defense and not allow so many mismatches from switches like a Parker on a Nowitzski. Personally, i'd rather see more 'hedges' ran than switches.

[ShoogarBear]

If this keeps up, we may be seeing Ian Mahinmi maybe a year earlier than the plan.

[boutons_]

Tim was damn good looking, very mobile, really sprinting down court, these past 2 or 3 games. But his aggressiveness on defense was still kinda like Andrei K. Rather stepping into the penetrator's path, trying to alter the shot, he let's the penetrator by and tries to block the shot.

Of course, Nazr just back-peddles down the paint and right out of play, even out of bounds. Nazr loves his body, won't put it on anyone else's body. The "Nazr manoevre", quickly becoming a legend. :lol

[Kori Ellis]

Too bad Rasho doesn't rebound and is too soft offensively. If he played 38 minutes a game, the Spurs would be setting FG% defense records.

Nazr is only averaging 4 rebounds per game in his last five. So I'm not sure that his stellar rebounding numbers are still something to brag about.

[wildbill2u]

As far as Bowen goes, lots of times when his man has a lot of points, it isn't because bowen hasn't guarded him well and turned him into the baselines for the bigs to pick up. He's done his job by slowing their star up, but if the big doesn't practice the system and pick him up, Bowen's man is gonna show bigger numbers than we're used to.

By the way, It's not just defense. How many recent games did we lose the rebound war as well?

[jcrod]

Less Rasho, more Horry. Horry is not a very good defender or rebounder.

[jcrod]

Manu also seems to have dropped his defensive intensity.

[wildbill2u]

Nazr is only averaging 4 rebounds per game in his last five. So I'm not sure that his stellar rebounding numbers are still something to brag about.

Yeah, I'd rather see some consistent numbers on rebounds and a little defense than one night where he takes down 20 rebounds followed by five games of obscurity.

[leemajors]

hopefully boobgate isn't helping the defensive lapses...

[BigVee]

I'm afraid the Spurs are going to get lit up by Brand and Kaman tonight. No inside defense or rebounding.

[ChumpDumper]

I'm thinking that the Spurs' biggest need isn't the "long 3" but an athletic 4.Yeah, I always included the tweeners in there. Doesn't seem like much can be done about that this season. TJ Cummings is looking very Udonis-like these days, but he's still damn skinny.

[CubanMustGo]

I'm afraid the Spurs are going to get lit up by Brand and Kaman tonight. No inside defense or rebounding.

I agree. If they let Kaman light them up like last time it'll be ugly.

[Bruno]

It's just a stat on 10 regular season games and it's not that bad as it looks, you should consider that :
- 2 games were against Suns where the defensive strategy is to defend the 3 pt line.
- 1 game was a b2b and the 4th in 5 days (Lakers)
- 1 game was a b2b in altitude against a physical team (Denver)
- Some games were blowout.

I don't say it's perfect but you should look behind the stats.
Spurs are 7-3 on the last ten with a difficult schedule, nothing scary.

[Kori Ellis]

It's just a stat on 10 regular season games and it's not that bad as it looks, you should consider that :
- 2 games were against Suns where the defensive strategy is to defend the 3 pt line.
- 1 game was a b2b and the 4th in 5 days (Lakers)
- 1 game was a b2b in altitude against a physical team (Denver)
- Some games were blowout.

I don't say it's perfect but you should look behind the stats.
Spurs are 7-3 on the last ten with a difficult schedule, nothing scary.


You can take any 10 games of the season and you'll find back to backs or other reasons why the field goal percentage D might not be good. But the fact remains that recently it's worse than the rest of the season and it is a point of concern.

[CubanMustGo]

You can take any 10 games of the season and you'll find back to backs or other reasons why the field goal percentage D might not be good. But the fact remains that recently it's worse than the rest of the season and it is a point of concern.

Yeah. As someone else (several?) said, there have been an awful lot of uncontested layups. THAT is not typical Spurs basketball.

[timvp]

Nazr is only averaging 4 rebounds per game in his last five. So I'm not sure that his stellar rebounding numbers are still something to brag about.

Over those five games, Nazr is averaging 8.5 defensive rebounds per 48 minutes. Rasho is averaging 3.5 defensive rebounds per 48 minutes over the same time frame.

The Spurs can't even play Rasho anymore because he rebounds at the rate of a bad rebounding point guard.

[Kori Ellis]

Also, in the last 10 games, they've had the Rockets twice, Hornets, Sonics, and Blazers. Not exactly a rough group of teams.

[Kori Ellis]

Over those five games, Nazr is averaging 8.5 defensive rebounds per 48 minutes. Rasho is averaging 3.5 defensive rebounds per 48 minutes over the same time frame.

The Spurs can't even play Rasho anymore because he rebounds at the rate of a bad rebounding point guard.

Per 48 minutes stats don't mean jack in this circumstance. Bottomline is Nazr is only giving 4 rebounds per game. Is that enough in your opinion to make up for sucky D?

[Bruno]

You can take any 10 games of the season and you'll find back to backs or other reasons why the field goal percentage D might not be good. But the fact remains that recently it's worse than the rest of the season and it is a point of concern.

Except that a b2b at Denver isn't exactly the same thing than a b2b at Atlanta and Spurs play Phoenix only 4 times a year.
I just think it's just a bad statiscal stretch and I will be curious to see this stat for the next ten games.

[Kori Ellis]

I will be curious to see this stat for the next ten games

Me too.

[aaronstampler]

I probably agree with most people here. It's a combination of several things. Duncan's not the defender he's been in the past because of age/injury, the defensive rebounding is horrible and people are getting easy putbacks, Nazr isn't the defender Rasho is (even when Rasho is beat, he'll at least foul people.) Also, something I'm not sure other people mentioned, is that Starship Nine (aka TP) might be expaning a little too much of his focus on the other 47 feet of the floor.

If Pop let Manu handle the ball in more sets, maybe TP would have more energy on D. PGs have been lighting us up lately.

[ChumpDumper]

Bruno are you in the states? I don't remember. I can only say watching these games lately has been pretty embarrassing as far as defense goes.

[timvp]

Per 48 minutes stats don't mean jack in this circumstance. Bottomline is Nazr is only giving 4 rebounds per game. Is that enough in your opinion to make up for sucky D?

Nazr''s averaging 5.4 rebounds in his last five games. That's more than his per game average.

Yeah, Nazr isn't a very good defender but Rasho isn't the answer. You can't depend on a player that soft in the playoffs. Rasho is useful against teams like Houston and Miami. Other than those two teams, he shouldn't leave the bench.

[tim_duncan_fan]

not another rasho>nazr thread. nazr is the better player. Just let it go people.
:rolleyes

[timvp]

We'll see how Rasho plays versus Kaman tonight. You might be able to add the Clipeprs as a team that Rasho could see minutes against.

[Bruno]

Bruno are you in the states? I don't remember. I can only say watching these games lately has been pretty embarrassing as far as defense goes.

Nop, I'm in France but I watch almost all Spurs games.

[Kori Ellis]

not another rasho>nazr thread. nazr is the better player. Just let it go people.
:rolleyes

Umm... It's not about Rasho and Nazr. It's about the Spurs sucky team D as of late. As many have said, there's a variety of factors, Tim, Nazr, our point guards.

So keep your rolleyes to yourself.

[Bruno]

Yeah, Nazr isn't a very good defender but Rasho isn't the answer. You can't depend on a player that soft in the playoffs. Rasho is useful against teams like Houston and Miami. Other than those two teams, he shouldn't leave the bench.

The end of the True center in nba is the end of Rasho.

[ChumpDumper]

not another rasho>nazr thread. nazr is the better player. Just let it go people.
:rolleyesWell he needs to play like it then.

5.4 rpg is quite a bit lower than his average as a starter. It's the main reason he's starting, so he needs to pick it up.

[Kori Ellis]

Nazr''s averaging 5.4 rebounds in his last five games. That's more than his per game average.

Yeah, Nazr isn't a very good defender but Rasho isn't the answer. You can't depend on a player that soft in the playoffs. Rasho is useful against teams like Houston and Miami. Other than those two teams, he shouldn't leave the bench.

Okay, five rebounds not four, my bad. Is five rebounds what you expected of him as a starter? Rasho averages 4.3 rebounds as a starter. So the rebounding difference which you claim is huge doesn't really exist if Nazr is going to only average 5 per game.

[Bruno]

Take it for what it's worse but opponents eFG is 2.5% higher on the court with Nazr on the court than with Rasho on the court.

[ploto]

When Nazr was first moved into the starting line-up, Rasho still played noticeable minutes. The first 4 games Rasho came off the bench, he averaged over 16 minutes a game and opponents shot 39%. In the past 10 games, Rasho has averaged right at 10 minutes per game, and opponents are shooting over 47%.

RASHO:
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.
on court: 96.2
off court: 102.8
BIG DIFFERENCE!

Effective FG% Allowed
on court 44.3%
off court 46.3%

NAZR:
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.
on court 102.9
off court 98.8

Effective FG% Allowed
on court 46.8%
off court 44.8%

Just no denying-- the defense gives up fewer points and the opponent shoots lower FG% when Rasho is in the game. Period.

Also interesting- but not surprising. The Spurs as a team rebound better offensiely with Nazr in than out, but better defensively with Nazr out than in. Conversely- with Rasho offensive rebounds are better out than in, but defensive rebounding is better in than out.

Using the Suns as an excuse plays right into this premise-- Rasho didn't play at all against them. :)

[ploto]

Plus, you can't use Tim as the excuse. Tim is actually physically better than before the All-Star break, and the defense is worse.

[ShoogarBear]

Also, something I'm not sure other people mentioned, is that Starship Nine (aka TP) might be expaning a little too much of his focus on the other 47 feet of the floor.
I've mentioned before in other threads that Parker's D has definitely taken a step back this year. Last year he was superb for long stretches. This year, I guess he's had to conserve his energy on that end.

But I still think the major problem right now is in the paint.
We may have to face the fact that is not just a short-term problem. Even after Tim's foot is better, it's obvious that neither Rasho nor Nazr is the One Solution at center.

Our options would seem to be:
-Keep Rasho and Nazr (if we can) and hope for improvement, or better alchemy of the two by Pop. Unlikely, I'd say.
-Look for an upgrade. Who is out there who's available?
-Think about bringing Mahinmi in faster.

[ploto]

Yeah, I'd rather see some consistent numbers on rebounds and a little defense than one night where he takes down 20 rebounds followed by five games of obscurity.
My belief has always been that even on a bad night- Rasho gives you defense. On a bad night, Nazr gives you nothing.

[leemajors]

i think javtokas would be a better stopgap than ian. dude is 19 or 20 and may not be much help at this point, even if he is making strides improvement-wise in europe. at least javtokas has some experience professionally.

[ChumpDumper]

Our options would seem to be:
-Keep Rasho and Nazr (if we can) and hope for improvement, or better alchemy of the two by Pop. Unlikely, I'd say.
-Look for an upgrade. Who is out there who's available?
-Think about bringing Mahinmi in faster.Well, Javtokas' team runs a very similar defense....

[timvp]

Just no denying-- the defense gives up fewer points and the opponent shoots lower FG% when Rasho is in the game. Period.

Yeah, I don't think anybody could deny that. Rasho is good defensively and is always in the right spots. Problem is he's bad at rebounding in a crowd and is soft as tissue paper on offense.

Truth is Rasho would work as a regular season starter and the Spurs would probably have a better record than they do now. But Pop and the Spurs know that Rasho starting won't win a title. You can't have a soft center and go thru teams like Detroit, Denver or even Dallas.

Nazr is just as bad as Rasho but Nazr isn't soft. Rasho has gone to the line 28 times in 1342 minutes this year. That's just disgusting.

[ploto]

You are not going to find someone to come in and learn and execute the Spurs defense the way Rasho does quickly. I know it will make people mad, but what Nazr brings is more replaceable by someone like Robertas.

[ShoogarBear]

Maybe it's just me, but I don't see Javtokas as ever amounting to anything more than a younger Tony Massenburg-type . He'll give you a physical presence, which is a nice piece to have, but is not somebody you'd want to have out there for more than 15 minutes a night.

[ploto]

Yeah, I don't think anybody could deny that. Rasho is good defensively and is always in the right spots. Problem is he's bad at rebounding in a crowd and is soft as tissue paper on offense.

Truth is Rasho would work as a regular season starter and the Spurs would probably have a better record than they do now. But Pop and the Spurs know that Rasho starting won't win a title. You can't have a soft center and go thru teams like Detroit, Denver or even Dallas.

Problem is-- can you get past the Clippers or the Lakers in the FIRST round with Nazr?

[timvp]

Problem is-- can you get past the Clippers or the Lakers in the FIRST round with Nazr?

Spurs won a championship last year with Nazr playing and Rasho cheerleading. Harsh, but I wouldn't change it up now, especially when the Spurs will probably have to face many of the same teams this postseason.

[leemajors]

Maybe it's just me, but I don't see Javtokas as ever amounting to anything more than a younger Tony Massenburg-type . He'll give you a physical presence, which is a nice piece to have, but is not somebody you'd want to have out there for more than 15 minutes a night.

have you seen him play much? he can cover a bit of space and rebound. i would like them to give it a try.

[ShoogarBear]

For this year, it's on Pop to determine when we need Nazr and when we need Rasho. I don't think you can just say one or the other is the starter and leave it at that.

I'd like to see more situation substitutions between the two, depending on what's happening on the court. Maybe it's just me, but it seems that isn't the case.

[Bruno]

Maybe it's just me, but I don't see Javtokas as ever amounting to anything more than a younger Tony Massenburg-type . He'll give you a physical presence, which is a nice piece to have, but is not somebody you'd want to have out there for more than 15 minutes a night.

Nazr or Rasho don't play more than 15 minutes when they are substitute.
I can see Spurs keeping Rasho or Nazr (they won't keep both) and sign Javtokas as a cheap backup.

[timvp]

For this year, it's on Pop to determine when we need Nazr and when we need Rasho. I don't think you can just say one or the other is the starter and leave it at that.

I'd like to see more situation substitutions between the two, depending on what's happening on the court. Maybe it's just me, but it seems that isn't the case.

I think Pop needs to go back to the playoff rotation soon. Buy some time with Nazr and then sub with Horry.

[ShoogarBear]

have you seen him play much? he can cover a bit of space and rebound. i would like them to give it a try.


Nazr or Rasho don't play more than 15 minutes when they are substitute.
I can see Spurs keeping Rasho or Nazr (they won't keep both) and sign Javtokas as a cheap backup.

I've seen him play some, but not a tremendous amount. He's mobile, but shorter than both Nazr and Rasho, and has even less offensive game than Rasho, except for putbacks. I have no idea how good he'd be defensively, but I'm guessing he won't be as effective as Rasho.

So . . . a guy who's physical, but not as good as Rasho on defense and not as good as Nazr on offense. Not really the long-term solution either.

[ShoogarBear]

I think Pop needs to go back to the playoff rotation soon. Buy some time with Nazr and then sub with Horry.

This is of course assuming that Horry has also decided it's time to go back to the playoff rotation and starts boxing out and playing better defense.

[timvp]

Maybe it's time to move Duncan to center next season and go out and get a power forward. Centers are too expensive and not worth the price tag anymore.

[ShoogarBear]

Maybe Duncan will pull a Soriano when told he's the full-time center.

[ChumpDumper]

Wasn't Oberto supposed to be our starting center by now?

[timvp]

Wasn't Oberto supposed to be our starting center by now?

He couldn't be much worse than Rasho or Nazr.

[ShoogarBear]

Hmm, we should bump those threads . . .

[timvp]

Slide Duncan to center and sign Chris Wilcox. :smokin

(Or Melvin Ely)

[Kori Ellis]

Slide Duncan to center and sign Chris Wilcox. :smokin

(Or Melvin Ely)

Chris Wilcox here would be damn sweet.

[ploto]

Spurs won a championship last year with Nazr playing and Rasho cheerleading. Harsh, but I wouldn't change it up now, especially when the Spurs will probably have to face many of the same teams this postseason.
Denver and Seattle??? :lol

[timvp]

Chris Wilcox here would be damn sweet.

Yeah too bad it'd cost too much for Holt.

The Clippers got murdered on that trade...

[timvp]

Denver and Seattle??? :lol

Spurs will probably end up playing Denver or Phoenix and then the Pistons.

[ChumpDumper]

I wouldn't say they got murdered - especially if they are able to keep Radman, who can't get more than the midlevel from them. It'll be interesting to see Wilcox's price tag this summer.

[ploto]

Spurs will probably end up playing Denver or Phoenix and then the Pistons.
1/2 does not = many

[Melmart1]

Nazr reminds me of that pretty ring that you buy that the salesperson swears is real. It's shiny and pretty and you wear it and love it. Then you go home, take it off and realize your finger turned green. All that glitters is not gold, Spurs fans. Sometimes it's gold electroplate. Nazr Mohammed= Gold electroplate.

[slayermin]

Probably due to a lack of physicality.

[ShoogarBear]

Nazr reminds me of that pretty ring that you buy that the salesperson swears is real. It's shiny and pretty and you wear it and love it. Then you go home, take it off and realize your finger turned green. All that glitters is not gold, Spurs fans. Sometimes it's gold electroplate. Nazr Mohammed= Gold electroplate.

Actually, more like a pretty ring that you traded for an old family heirloom that half your family said was ugly but dammit maybe it was small but it was real and had a lot of good memories attached.

[timvp]

Actually, more like a pretty ring that you traded for an old family heirloom that half your family said was ugly but dammit maybe it was small but it was real and had a lot of good memories attached.

:lmao

[Kori Ellis]

Actually, more like a pretty ring that you traded for an old family heirloom that half your family said was ugly but dammit maybe it was small but it was real and had a lot of good memories attached.

:lmao

[timvp]

I'd take Duncan and that heirloom as a front court right now. . .

[Melmart1]

:lol Leave it to Shoogar...

[Rick Von Braun]

Yeah, I don't think anybody could deny that. Rasho is good defensively and is always in the right spots. Problem is he's bad at rebounding in a crowd and is soft as tissue paper on offense.

Truth is Rasho would work as a regular season starter and the Spurs would probably have a better record than they do now. But Pop and the Spurs know that Rasho starting won't win a title. You can't have a soft center and go thru teams like Detroit, Denver or even Dallas.

Nazr is just as bad as Rasho but Nazr isn't soft. Rasho has gone to the line 28 times in 1342 minutes this year. That's just disgusting.

This is a very good observation, and I sadly agree with it.

The data from 82games.com give us some interesting information for discussion. The following is the complete set of points per 100 possesions in offense, defense and the net differential when the players are ON the floor, sorted by net differential between offense and deffense



Player Offense Defense Net-Diff
Manu Ginobili 113.1 100.6 12.6
Brent Barry 108.7 97.4 11.3
Tony Parker 110.4 99.5 10.8
Robert Horry 109.2 99.1 10.1
Tim Duncan 109.2 99.6 9.7
Rasho Nestvic. 105.7 96.2 9.5
Bruce Bowen 110.1 101.1 9.0
Nazr Mohammed 109.5 102.9 6.6
Michael Finley 105.1 100.1 5.0
Beno Udrih 108.7 104.7 4.1
Fabr. Oberto 102.5 102.4 0.1
Nick Van Exel 100.8 102.6 -1.8
Sean Marks 100.8 108.9 -9.6


Please note that the more minutes a player is on the floor, the more precise are the conclusions we could draw. This basically means deductions based on these data are more precise for TP, TD, Bowen, Manu and Finley, and less for the rest.

There are a couple of observations that I would like to make, which may be surprising to some in here:

1. Brent Barry has actually the second best differential of the team, and the second best defense per 100 possesions. Pop should try to slowly increase Brent's minutes at the expense of Finley's to see if he can keep this up with increased minutes.

2. Rasho provides the best defense on the team, and subpar offense. Conversely, Nazr provides good offense and subpar defense (most people in here are in complete agreement with this statement). It is clear to all Spurs fans at this point that the ideal situation would be to have a Mohamesterovic as a player if we could combine them. Since we cannot, Pop has chosen to go with a guy with several deficiences (and in fact worst in the net-differential between offense/defense), but with enough athletic ability to dunk and fight for rebounds. Time will tell if this is the right move, but you can hardly go against what have worked in the past, i.e. last year's playoffs.

3. Bruce Bowen offense has dramatically improve this year at the expense of a decline in his defensive ability. I think I am not the only one that have noticed that Bruce is a tad slower this year. Nothing dramatically, but the beginning of the decline. The data backs this up quite nicely.

4. Tim defensive ability has also declined this year. The decline is not that notorious since he went from freaking increadible to pretty good. With the PF and all the injuries, I do not expect him to be better than pretty good this year. This is one of the most critical issues, since Tim is the anchor of the Spurs deffense (and completely irreplaceable in this regard) and he will not be able to compensate for the blunders of Nazr in defense, and the lack of Rasho rebounding. Our frontcourt may be weaker this year I think.

5. This is where I disagree with timvp. I will say this very clearly... Nick Van Exel is detrimental to this team if he plays for extended periods of time. If the Spurs use him for the occasional run, in a Steve Kerr type of veteran role, I am all for it. I think it is a luxury to have him on the bench for that type of role, bringing a player with balls big enough to take over a game when things are going south. However, if the Spurs play him extensively, he is capable of sinking the offense really bad, with poor ball distribution and horrid shot selection.

6. Beno Udrih is not as bad as some people think he is. While his defense is still subpar, his offense and ball distribution compensates for those shortcomings. Right now, I would give him the nod to be the primary back up at PG. As for his last playoffs' failures to bring up the ball when pressured and trapped by the opposing team, I think he has learned a lesson and this year the "Hunters" of the league would have a more difficult job catching him. I will not address the claims that Beno is better than TP in any aspect other than maybe ball distribution, since this is ludicrous.

7. In the playoffs, depending on the matchups, there is still a place for both Rasho and Nazr. In the case of Rasho, it is critical to match him up on the floor with Manu, since he is the most productive offensive player in the team, and he can compensate for Rasho's shortcomings (either by creating easy shots for him, or rather avoid giving him the ball much in offense).

[ploto]

7. In the playoffs, depending on the matchups, there is still a place for both Rasho and Nazr. In the case of Rasho, it is critical to match him up on the floor with Manu, since he is the most productive offensive player in the team, and he can compensate for Rasho's shortcomings (either by creating easy shots for him, or rather avoid giving him the ball much in offense).
Rasho is shooting 52% FG. So while you can get away with saying he is soft offensively because he doesn't go hard at the basket, his FG% and Nazr's are almost identical. Rasho has MANY skills on offense that Nazr does not possess. Nazr is a better offensive rebounder and gets to the line more. As for pairing Rasho with Manu, I totally agree, but it is Manu who benefits from the screens Rasho sets. Rasho is STILL far and away the best big on this team at sealing defenders off. Most importantly, the Spurs as a TEAM shoot a higher FG% with Rasho than Nazr in the game. What about that stat?

But I have a question-- people always throw out the Rasho is soft label, but what about Nazr-- I think he is soft DEFENSIVELY. When have you seen Nazr foul a guy to stop an easy basket and make the guy earn it at the line? His fouls are usually weak reach-in fouls.

[MI21]

Heirloom would never let the Spurs get this lethargic, disinterested and lackadaisical on the court, he would bring some emotion and get them into it.

[ShoogarBear]

RVB:

Interesting stats, as always, and we can discuss for a long time what they might mean, but the one thing I disagree with you on is that they "prove" anything.

Basketball is a five-on-five game and unless you can statistically correct for differences in combinations on the floor, there is no way you can make an absolute comparison of one player to another on the basis of these numbers. For instance, suppose for example Barry only played when there were four other starters on the floor (I know this isn't the actual case) and Finley only played with other bench players, then Barry's numbers would be skewed because theoretically he only played with better players. Similarly, to do this in a complete fashion you would also have to adjust for the five players on the court for the other team.

Hainvg said that, the numbers are probably a reasonable starting point, more so for the +/- value. But I view any statistic that says that Brent Barry is the second most effective defensive player for the Spurs with a huge deal of skepticism.

[Rick Von Braun]

RVB:

Interesting stats, as always, and we can discuss for a long time what they might mean, but the one thing I disagree with you on is that they "prove" anything.

Basketball is a five-on-five game and unless you can statistically correct for differences in combinations on the floor, there is no way you can make an absolute comparison of one player to another on the basis of these numbers. For instance, suppose for example Barry only played when there were four other starters on the floor (I know this isn't the actual case) and Finley only played with other bench players, then Barry's numbers would be skewed because theoretically he only played with better players. Similarly, to do this in a complete fashion you would also have to adjust for the five players on the court for the other team.

But you can, and there are several methods used by NBA teams to do exactly what you suggest. They are called adjusted +/-, Winval, and many more. They all take into consideration the 4 players playing with subject being tested and the five opposing players. Several of the creators of those methods are now working for different NBA franchises.

That data however is not readly available to the public, so it is a little more difficult to get (I've got some data for the 02/03 and 04/05 seasons).


Hainvg said that, the numbers are probably a reasonable starting point, more so for the +/- value. But I view any statistic that says that Brent Barry is the second most effective defensive player for the Spurs with a huge deal of skepticism.

Regarding what it is usually referred in the statistical community as the laughing test, I agree with you. I did say in my disclaimer that conclusions for players that do not play significant minutes are less robust. In the case of Barry, he only plays 29% of the total possible minutes. In those bursts however, he did perform better than the casual fan percieves.

[leemajors]

Yeah too bad it'd cost too much for Holt.

The Clippers got murdered on that trade...

well they got something for him, better than nothing letting him walk this summer.

[ShoogarBear]

Rasho has MANY skills on offense that Nazr does not possess.

"Many"? He has more range. That's it.



When have you seen Nazr foul a guy to stop an easy basket and make the guy earn it at the line? His fouls are usually weak reach-in fouls.

Probably because he's out of position. If Nazr was in positiion, I'm sure he's just as capable of making those fouls as Rasho. :lol

[101A]

VERY encouraging stats as the Spurs prepare to enter the playoffs considering Manu, Tony, Tim & Horry's minutes will all GO UP once Pop doesn't have to "save them for the playoffs" anymore.

The Spurs, more than any other team, put a "different" team on the court in the playoffs.

[Hook Dem]

Last night, a different Spurs team showed up. They must have been reading this thread. Anyway, it was good to see the defense surface again.

[ploto]

"Many"? He has more range. That's it.

Rasho sets better screens, seals defenders off better, has better hands, is a better passer, reads defenses better, knows the plays better...

[velik_m]

I've seen him play some, but not a tremendous amount. He's mobile, but shorter than both Nazr and Rasho, and has even less offensive game than Rasho, except for putbacks. I have no idea how good he'd be defensively, but I'm guessing he won't be as effective as Rasho.

So . . . a guy who's physical, but not as good as Rasho on defense and not as good as Nazr on offense. Not really the long-term solution either.

as for shorter: he is 211 cm (6.11), Nazr is 6.10
Javtokas is definatly more athletic than Nazr and probably better shot blocker.
He's offense is mostly putbacks and dunks, almost no range (which is kind of wierd for Lithuanian)

[boutons_]

I don't know why "those Spurs" didn't show up vs Nuggs and Sonics, but better late than never. And no turning back. Spurs have serious payback to render Thu night.

I'm happy that Pop isn't happy with where the Spurs are at this point. :)

[ShoogarBear]

Rasho sets better screens, seals defenders off better, has better hands, is a better passer, reads defenses better, knows the plays better...

Then why is the Spurs offense so much worse with him in there?

[leemajors]

Then why is the Spurs offense so much worse with him in there?


is it worse? i know the rebounding is but i don't think the point totals vary all that much...

[Slomo]

Then why is the Spurs offense so much worse with him in there?Actually I'm not sure that the Spurs offense is worse with him on the floor. His offense is not that good, but I think that a nice percentage of the points in the paints were facilitated by him. If he would hussle more and get more offensive boards, then his offensive performance (points scored) would not even be a factor.

I will agree that what he does on the O is not enough (or that he could do more), but not that the Spurs O suffers because of him.

[boutons_]

Anything Rasho scores is gravy. Scoring off offensive rebounds/garbage would be great, but often when Rasho gets an offensive rebound, he kicks it out rather than try to put it back.

It's pretty clear that when Rasho was starting, or playing, he was not in there to be 4th or 5th scoring option but to defend, rebound, and facilitate scoring by the drivers and slashers.

[T Park]

but often when Rasho gets an offensive rebound, he kicks it out rather than try to put it back.



Some hate this.

Some love it.

Im indifferent, it would be nice if he went back up with it, but in a close game, it would be good to kick it back out, run some clock, and reset the offense through Ginobili or Duncan.