Post your breakdowns: Pistons vs. Spurs

[Leetonidas]

Assuming they meet in the finals (which they may not, but assuming they do), here is my breakdown of the two teams and what I figure will happen in the series.

Let's start off with our 2005 NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs.

Likely players on the playoff roster:

Tim Duncan
Tony Parker
Nazr Mohammed
Bruce Bowen
Manu Ginobili
Michael Finley
Nick Van Exel
Robert Horry
Brent Barry
Beno Udrih
Rasho Nesterovic
Fabricio Oberto

Player Analysis:

1. Tim Duncan: Two-time MVP, Three-time Finals MVP, Three-time NBA Champion. Greatest Power Foward in NBA History, arguably one of the best players of all time and today. Averages over 20 and 10 for his career. All-Star every year of his career.

2. Tony Parker: Two-time NBA Champion. Lightning quick, can probably get from one end of the court to the other faster than any other player. Leads the league in Point Guards with points and the paint and is #3 in FG%.

3. Nazr Mohammed: One-time NBA Champion. Offense rebounding machine. Can put up decent numbers on the offensive end, plays physical, slow on defense, and is a terrific free-throw shooter.

4. Bruce Bowen: Two-time NBA Champion. Best one-on-one and perimeter defender in the NBA today. Frustrates most opponents, shoots amazingly well from three, particularly in the corner, and can put the ball on the floor. Has a decent mid-range game.

5. Manu Ginobili: Two-time NBA Champion, Gold Medalist with the Argentinian National Team. One of the most intense and tenacious players in the game. Players outstanding defense, creates on offense, shoots the three, does all the intangibles, and shoots well from the free-throw line. Plays astronomically when needed.

The rest of the guys...

6. Michael Finley: Great jump shooter.

7. Nick Van Exel: Not afraid of crunch time, can step up and hit big shots. Great three point shooter for his career.

8. Robert Horry: Mr. Clutch. Six-time NBA Champion. Hits the big shots when they're needed the most. Great defender.

9. Brent Barry: One-time NBA Champion. Excellent passer, excellent shooter, excellent free throw shooter, knows how to run the point, good ball handling, smart play making.

10. Beno Udrih: One-time NBA Champion. Knows how to to run the point. Can get to the rim and shoots very well, especially from three point land. Great passer.

11. Rasho Nesterovic: One-time NBA Champion. Excellent post defender. Plays outstanding defense in the low block.

12. Fabricio Oberto: Yet to be determined, but appears to be a good player and a good passer.


On to the 2005 Eastern Conference Champion Detroit Pistons.


Likely players on the playoff roster:

Ben Wallace
Chauncey Billups
Rip Hamilton
Rasheed Wallace
Tayshaun Prince
Tony Delk
Antonio McDyess
Maurice Evans
Carlos Delfino
Lindsey Hunter
Dale Davis
Kelvin Cato

Player Analysis:

1. Ben Wallace: One-time NBA Champion. Best defensive big man in the game. Great around the rim, amazing defender, smart player.

2. Chauncey Billups: One-time NBA Champion. Pistons' Mr. Clutch. Runs the offense brilliantly and can hit the three with ease. Makes smart plays, good passer, amazing free throw shooter, great player all around.

3. Rip Hamilton: One-time NBA Champion. Probably the best player in the NBA moving without the ball. Great shooter and great three point shooter.

4. Rasheed Wallace: One-time NBA Champion. Awesome defender, especially on Tim Duncan, can shoot the three, long so he can rise up over the top of players, very emotional, steps his game up when needed.

5. Tayshaun Prince: One-time NBA Champion. Good three point shooter, crafty with the ball, good defender, long and lanky and can really bother shots.

The rest of the guys...

6. Tony Delk: I myself don't know much about Delk, but it looks like he can put up points and can shoot the ball.

7. Antonio McDyess: Great shooting big man, plays well down low and can defend pretty well.

8. Maurice Evans: Not very sure about Mo. I hear he brings good energy but that he overall is not very good (according to some Piston fans on the forum, anyway).

9. Carlos Delfino: Excellent defender, I don't know much else about Delfino, except the he gets upset easily and is a little spoiled.

10. Lindsey Hunter: Great backup point guard. Good shooter, and overall good player.

11. Dale Davis: Physical big man.

12. Kelvin Cato: In the few games I've ever seen Cato in, he never showed me much. Piston cans can help me with their bench analysis.


Head to Head matchups:

Tim Duncan vs. Rasheed Wallace: Tim Duncan could probably win this battle if 100% healthy, but Tim is not, and Rasheed has always bothered Tim on defense. Tim will still score his points, but he will need more shots to do it. Tim and Rasheed will pretty much cancel each other out, in my opinion.

Winner: Tie

Tony Parker vs. Chauncey Billups: Although I don't think Tony will be on Chauncey that much (because I believe Bowen will guard Billups), I believe that Tony will average more points, but Chauncey will put up better games all around. I don't think there's a clear cut winner in this case, especially if Bowen is on Billups, so I think it's a wash.

Winner: Tie

Bruce Bowen vs. Rip Hamilton: Rip is obviously better offensively but I doubt Bowen will be on Rip. Tony will probably guard Rip, and I think Tony has the speed to stay ahead of him, but Hamilton will most likely average 17-21 points per game in the series.

Winner: Rip Hamilton

Nazr Mohammed vs. Ben Wallace: They both rebound well. Nazr can score better but Ben is a beast in the paint on defense. I think Ben's play will ignite the Pistons crowd and thus giving the edge to Wallace.

Winner: Ben Wallace

Manu Ginobili vs. Tayshaun Prince: As we saw in the Finals last year, I don't think Prince will be able to contain Ginobili at all. Manu will probably end up with Finals MVP if Tim is below 80%.

Winner: Manu Ginobili

Spurs bench vs. Pistons bench: Spurs get the edge here. The Spurs have proven veterans on their bench and while the Pistons do have a few good players, the Spurs have great shooters in Finley, Barry, Horry, Van Exel, and Udrih, as well as crunch time performers like Horry and Van Exel.

Winner: Spurs bench

Gregg Popovich vs. Flip Saunders: Pop gets this one easy. Until Flip can prove it in the playoffs, he won't get much credit. Pop has three rings and a coach of the year award under his belt and Saunders has only been out of the first round once.

Winner: Gregg Popovich

Overall: I see these two teams as equals almost, but I give the Spurs 9.8 and the Pistons a 9.75. It can go either way in this series, and Tim Duncan's play will be very key against Rasheed. Our bench MUST produce.

My prediction: Spurs over Pistons in 6 games. :)

[ALVAREZ6]

Spurs in 5

[Leetonidas]

Spurs in 5

I would prefer it, but I wanted to be realistic.

[ALVAREZ6]

Something tells me that TP, Manu, and Tim are gonna go crazy.

[JamStone]

When did Tony Parker get his third NBA championship?

[Leetonidas]

When did Tony Parker get his third NBA championship?

:domokun

Typo, sorry.

[ALVAREZ6]

We've had so many Spurs vs. Pistons threads lately, it would be pretty funny if this match-up never happens.

[Leetonidas]

I wanted to do a team match up analysis, which I have not seen yet, and get some opinions from other people.

[Winnipeg_Spur]

If Duncan and Rasheed cancel each other out, Detroit will win, and in much fewer than 7, IMO.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

You might as well pencil Horry into the starting lineup in that potential match-up...

There is no way he plays less minutes than Nazr...

[JMarkJohns]

"Both teams play hard, my man... Both team play hard."

[Dre_7]

My finals breakdown:

Tony Parker vs. Jason Williams. TP is easily better

Bruce Bowen vs. D Wade. D Wade will get his points, but will have to work hard for them. Hopefully that will have some effect at the end of games.

Manu vs. James Posey. Posey is a good defender but Manu should be able to win this matchup.

Duncan vs Haslem. Duncan easily dominates this matchup. Most likely Shaq will be forced to play more against Duncan. Mourning will also play against Duncan.

Nazr vs. Shaq. Shaq will dominate. Expect Rasho to get alot of PT in this years Finals.

Benches. Spurs bench > Heat bench

[Amuseddaysleeper]

If Duncan and Rasheed cancel each other out, Detroit will win, and in much fewer than 7, IMO.


i agree with that post. and sadly, duncan and sheed DO cancel each other out. also fin fin lacks the consistency we need from him to help us get past the pistons and they know how to stop parker for the most part as he always gets off to a hot start against them but detroit then closes the lane. Detroit in 6, the championship is theirs to lose

[jochhejaam]

Tony Parker vs. Chauncey Billups: Although I don't think Tony will be on Chauncey that much (because I believe Bowen will guard Billups), I believe that Tony will average more points, but Chauncey will put up better games all around. I don't think there's a clear cut winner in this case, especially if Bowen is on Billups, so I think it's a wash.

Winner: Tie
Not to take anything away from Tony (he's having a great year) but Tony's game is in the paint and driving into the paint isn't a good place to be against the pistons if your a small guard. They're long and atheletic and tend to clog up the paint.
Chaucey's also picked up his game a couple notches with legitimate talk of him being MVP.
Noticeable edge to Billups IMO

If Bowen guards Billups that puts Parker on Hamilton (mismatch) and Manu on Tayshaun ? (another mismatch) so I'm not sure how that will work out either.

(looks like you put a lot into the post Balla, well done)

[smeagol]

i agree with that post. and sadly, duncan and sheed DO cancel each other out. also fin fin lacks the consistency we need from him to help us get past the pistons and they know how to stop parker for the most part as he always gets off to a hot start against them but detroit then closes the lane. Detroit in 6, the championship is theirs to lose
Is that you, rascal?

[smeagol]

As we saw in the Finals last year, I don't think Prince will be able to contain Ginobili at all. Manu will probably end up with Finals MVP if Tim is below 80%.
Manu needs to step it a couple of notches for this to happen.

I like how Tony is starting to hit shots in the clutch, although I'm still morecomfortable with Manu or TD handling the ball in the last minutes of the 4th Q.

[Samr]

The Pistons seem to have that "no one wants us to win" mentality that has generated a lot of anger and, dare I say, jealousy towards the Spurs. I think this may be their downfall.

The Pistons will come into the series with a chip on their shoulder, and when push comes to shove, anger gets in the way of intelligence and execution.

Spurs in 6.

[theroc5]

i wana say first off we dont no 100 percent if these spurs will be in the finals though it pretty much looks like it. secondly the pistons have a tough time with the nets and the heat are still there as well. if they do how ever meet in the nba finals this is what i think.

parker vs rip- i think with billups improving alot pop will put bowen on billups so that leaves parker vs rip and i think parker is quick enough to stay with rip and i think parker wil create more for his team. though rips still going to get some shots i dont think he will have the ball in his hands as much. i like to look at the last play of game 5 of the nba finals.
advantage parker

manu vs prince-as we saw last yr manu out matched prince and since they are both the same player as last yr i say manu
advantage manu

bowen vs billups-billups is going to get some clutch shots and is going to get his points but bowen is going to make every point he gets hard.
advantage billups

duncan vs rasheed-duncan was worse off last yr then this yr and duncans only going to get better, duncan usally out plays rasheed and td is the best pf of all time so i would give it to duncan. even if they cancel each other out parker and manu are good enough to make up for it. duncans going to get 20pts 14 reb a game while wallace will be more like 11 pts 8 reb
advantage duncan

nazr vs ben-bens a beast on defense though nazr can score better i think ben will help his team more.
advantage ben

bench-not hard at all, horry and mcdyess are pretty similar but we also have barry(on fire unlike last year) finely, nve rasho beno ect

chemistry-pretty much equal

offense-spurs can put up points if they want to jsut look at the fg percentage but they choose more of a half court style. the pistons seem to do a little of both so ima say its even

defense-last yr i would say it was even but this yr it seems every game the pistons get a tad worse. so spurs win

clutch-we do have horry but billups to me is a tad better in the clutch as well with the rest of the pistons team overall

coach- i dont think in any bodys mind that you would say flip>pop. pop is a better coach and has been there before. he stresses on d more and d wins ships

hca in the finals is over rated. i think it might help us having the 2-3-2 layout

well i figure we will steal the 1st or 2nd game as imo we play better on the road than at home in the playoffs. then we have 3 games at home where we gotta win atleast 2. so say the series is now 3-2 in favor of us. we have two games to win the ship. there are no back to backs and these spurs just keep on improving. these pistons arent the same pistons we saw in december and these spurs arent the same spurs we saw in december.
that being said lets not forget that the pistons still have the nets and heat that stand in there way. i think that it might help us a tad more if we have this lay out, it puts pressure on them and wait we still are the nba champs!
No matter what GO SPURS GO!

i say spurs in 6 but a whole lot can change from april to june...alot

[theroc5]

Manu needs to step it a couple of notches for this to happen.

I like how Tony is starting to hit shots in the clutch, although I'm still morecomfortable with Manu or TD handling the ball in the last minutes of the 4th Q.
manu is averaging 15pts and 4 assits this season compared to last seasons 16pts and 4 assits per game. with all of his injurys this season i see no need to worry about manu come playoff time. he really takes his game to another level come post season

[Amuseddaysleeper]

man how sweet would it be for the spurs to repeat for the first time ever

i could see pistons-spurs being a lakers-celtics series for the 2000's

[theroc5]

ya this yr means so much, i just want to repeat so bad. this yr means more to the spurs and there fans then any other yr. it would put a staple on the spurs dynasty and duncans legacy. 4 titles in 8 yrs... wow

[exstatic]

Here's my analysis: the games will be decided on the floor. Any "paper analysis" isn't worth what it's written on. On paper, the Colts should have won the NFL championship last year, yet they didn't reach the Superbowl.

What you have is two teams that have deep playoff experience. Detroit has won once, lost in 7, and advanced to the ECF in '03.. SA's current core group has won twice and gone deep three other times.

The Spurs have three starters that have been together since Fall 2001: Tony, Bruce and Tim. Add Manu to the mix the next year, and you have a solid core of players together over 4 years. That kind of cohesion can't be bought, and gets you through deep playoff runs and road playoff games.

I like our chances, and I'm sure the Detroit fans like theirs, too. Let's get it on. :cooldevil

[Leetonidas]

Not to take anything away from Tony (he's having a great year) but Tony's game is in the paint and driving into the paint isn't a good place to be against the pistons if your a small guard. They're long and atheletic and tend to clog up the paint.
Chaucey's also picked up his game a couple notches with legitimate talk of him being MVP.
Noticeable edge to Billups IMO

If Bowen guards Billups that puts Parker on Hamilton (mismatch) and Manu on Tayshaun ? (another mismatch) so I'm not sure how that will work out either.

(looks like you put a lot into the post Balla, well done)

Well, Tony's midrange game is improving a lot, and so is his free throw shooting. I say tie because I'm fairly sure that Bowen will be on Billups. Bowen guarded Billups sometimes during the Finals with Tony on Rip. Manu played on Prince throughout the whole series.

[SequSpur]

spurs in four. wtf.

[anthologyct]

Tim Duncan vs. Rasheed Wallace: Tim Duncan could probably win this battle if 100% healthy, but Tim is not, and Rasheed has always bothered Tim on defense. Tim will still score his points, but he will need more shots to do it. Tim and Rasheed will pretty much cancel each other out, in my opinion.

Winner: Tie

Tony Parker vs. Chauncey Billups: Although I don't think Tony will be on Chauncey that much (because I believe Bowen will guard Billups), I believe that Tony will average more points, but Chauncey will put up better games all around. I don't think there's a clear cut winner in this case, especially if Bowen is on Billups, so I think it's a wash.

Winner: Tie

Manu Ginobili vs. Tayshaun Prince: As we saw in the Finals last year, I don't think Prince will be able to contain Ginobili at all. Manu will probably end up with Finals MVP if Tim is below 80%.

Winner: Manu Ginobili


TexasBalla1001,

I agree with everything, except for 3 things ...........

Duncan vs. 'Sheed:
I don't care, Duncan is the greatest PF to play the game in the last 25 years. I know 'Sheed does a great job on him and all. And in fact, 'Sheed is my favorite player ............ but in crunch time, Duncan gets the calls ....... 'Sheed gets the techs. As well as my boy plays Duncan, I gotta give Tim the adavantage.

Advantage: Duncan, (however, ever so slight)


Parker vs. Billups:
In the matchup of Parker vs. Billups, its not about points ........... it's how and when you score .......... and, the way you control the game. Parker will not ever be as good a point guard as Chauncey Billups is now.

Advantage: Billups


Manu vs. Tayshaun "Stretch Armstrong" Prince
In a potential Spurs vs. Pistons rematch ....... I don't care about the Bench, Coaching, or the other matchups on the floor ......... how well Tayshaun Prince performs will determine if we win the title or not. Tay was an afterthought in the offense last year .............. this year under Flip, he's been more aggressive.........like a new player all-together. I'm tryin' not to sound like a HOMER here ........... But I really expect Tayshaun to match Manu's aggressiveness. That's why I think this match-up will be a tie.

Advantage: Tie

[jochhejaam]

Well, Tony's midrange game is improving a lot, and so is his free throw shooting. I say tie because I'm fairly sure that Bowen will be on Billups. Bowen guarded Billups sometimes during the Finals with Tony on Rip. Manu played on Prince throughout the whole series.

I only meant a mismatch as far as Manu guarding Prince (hoping that Prince can exploit the length disparity), guarding Manu obviously has to be done by committee.

[Leetonidas]

TexasBalla1001,

I agree with everything, except for 3 things ...........

Duncan vs. 'Sheed:
I don't care, Duncan is the greatest PF to play the game in the last 25 years. I know 'Sheed does a great job on him and all. And in fact, 'Sheed is my favorite player ............ but in crunch time, Duncan gets the calls ....... 'Sheed gets the techs. As well as my boy plays Duncan, I gotta give Tim the adavantage.

Advantage: Duncan, (however, ever so slight)


Parker vs. Billups:
In the matchup of Parker vs. Billups, its not about points ........... it's how and when you score .......... and, the way you control the game. Parker will not ever be as good a point guard as Chauncey Billups is now.

Advantage: Billups


Manu vs. Tayshaun "Stretch Armstrong" Prince
In a potential Spurs vs. Pistons rematch ....... I don't care about the Bench, Coaching, or the other matchups on the floor ......... how well Tayshaun Prince performs will determine if we win the title or not. Tay was an afterthought in the offense last year .............. this year under Flip, he's been more aggressive.........like a new player all-together. I'm tryin' not to sound like a HOMER here ........... But I really expect Tayshaun to match Manu's aggressiveness. That's why I think this match-up will be a tie.

Advantage: Tie

I agree with that minus the last one. Manu and Tayshaun are not tied. I put a tie for Duncan and Sheed because of Sheed's defense. I know Tim's a better player, but if he can't move the way he normally would, it won't matter.

Chauncey will probably win out between him and Parker, but I meant more of what they do for their teams.

[callo1]

Pretty much the same as it was last year save a few changes.

TP is playing better this year with his mid-range game, but the Pistons will shut down most of his penetration probably.

TD is getting a bit healthier, but I expect about the same from him as last year.

Hopefully Manu continues to get his game back.

The biggest differnece I see for the Spurs this year is Finley. I expect that Finley will have a very good playoff run. He can easily be the X factor for this team, especially if Manu isn't at 100%.

I hope Beno has matured and won't be a turnover machine like he was in last years Finals. If so, I would love to see Brent be backup PG.

No telling what will happen with Nick, but even though he hasn't played well lately, I still wouldn't mind seeing the ball in his hand late in a game...theres just something about that guy when its all on the line.

I think Rasho will play much better in his backup role than he did in last years Finals. Last year he looked kinda lost in the Finals, but he just seems to be more agressive this year.

Bowen's continued evolution of his midrange game certainly give us hope for good play out of him. You know he will bring the defense, but more offense would be a big plus.

[vsnba]

Detroit needs three body to contain Duncan , both Wallace and Macdyes

[slayermin]

I think Pop will put TP on Billups most of the game but will sic Bruce on Mr. Big Shot in crunchtime. Hamilton has turned into a money player too but he isn't the killer like Billups.

Also, even Mr. Big Shot is human. He missed a big free throw down the stretch in game seven last year. Probably because Bruce was in his head a little.

[FromWayDowntown]

Assuming that any of this comes to fruition, considering the way the teams match-up head-to-head strikes me as a horrendous means to analyze a series. For instance, the comparison of the Spurs bench vs. the Pistons bench (or comparing particular players on each bench) had nothing to do with Antonio McDyess killing the Spurs on side pick-and-rolls in games 3 and 4 of last year's Finals. What matters is the way that the schemes match up and how well the players function within those schemes to make plays that matter.

Is Robert Horry better than Rasheed Wallace? Absolutely not. Did Robert Horry make the big play in Game 5 when Rasheed Wallace made a huge mistake? Absolutely.

I think there are a number of schematic issues that arise in a Spurs-Pistons matchup, but I think the most important from the Spurs standpoint are two things: (1) the ability of Tony Parker to hit the 15-18 jumper on a consistent basis and make the Pistons aggressively defend the high pick-and-roll or the elbow pick-and-roll; and (2) the ability of the Spurs to put bodies on the Pistons after missed shots and end possessions. Do both of those things, and the Spurs create great opportunities for themselves.

Of course, this all depends on about a million things happening between now and early June; the Spurs just need to worry about winning in Utah on Tuesday.

[Dre_7]

I still think MIA is coming out of the east.

[exstatic]

If the Pistons think that Tony is Tony from last year, they're done. Teams know that he wants to score in the lane, and he does it anyway. One of the opposing coaches commented that Tony was the only player he ever saw working on layups and finishing in the lane in warmups. The killer is his new jumpshot. It started falling in Late January or early February, so Detroit hasn't seen it yet in person. It's not 3 point range (yet), but it's solid and consistant, with good rotation, out to about 18-20 feet. He took apart LA with it one game. If you play off him and let him hit a few, you're in for a long fucking night, whoever's gym you're in. If he gets into a rhythm, he'll go for 30+ on you because you won't be able to decide how to play him once the jumper is falling.

[Supergirl]

Spurs in 7 again. They won't have homecourt advantage.

I predict: They win 1 of 2 on the road in the first two. 2 of 3 on their homecourt, and then another 1 of 2 in Detroit.

[FromWayDowntown]

If the Pistons think that Tony is Tony from last year, they're done. Teams know that he wants to score in the lane, and he does it anyway. One of the opposing coaches commented that Tony was the only player he ever saw working on layups and finishing in the lane in warmups. The killer is his new jumpshot. It started falling in Late January or early February, so Detroit hasn't seen it yet in person. It's not 3 point range (yet), but it's solid and consistant, with good rotation, out to about 18-20 feet. He took apart LA with it one game. If you play off him and let him hit a few, you're in for a long fucking night, whoever's gym you're in. If he gets into a rhythm, he'll go for 30+ on you because you won't be able to decide how to play him once the jumper is falling.

Agreed. But while Tony isn't (apparently) Tony from last year, neither, it would seem, is Tim Duncan of this year the Tim Duncan from last year. The question should a Spurs/Pistons series come to pass, is whether the improvement in Tony's play can offset whatever reductions may exist in Tim's play.

Still, I think the more important thing is to focus on dealing with getting this division clinched and then worrying about a first round opponent. Just as Jim jinxes games with his threads, I have a major fear that a thread like this will bring bad karma.

In fact, I'm superstitious enough to be done posting here.

:smchode:

[Leetonidas]

Agreed. But while Tony isn't (apparently) Tony from last year, neither, it would seem, is Tim Duncan of this year the Tim Duncan from last year. The question should a Spurs/Pistons series come to pass, is whether the improvement in Tony's play can offset whatever reductions may exist in Tim's play.

Still, I think the more important thing is to focus on dealing with getting this division clinched and then worrying about a first round opponent. Just as Jim jinxes games with his threads, I have a major fear that a thread like this will bring bad karma.

In fact, I'm superstitious enough to be done posting here.

:smchode:

Amused brought his pessemistic ideas here. I think we'll be fine. :sombrero:

[anthologyct]

Guys, y'all are sleepin' on Tayshaun Prince ........... this is not last year's Prince.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Guys, y'all are sleepin' on Tayshaun Prince ........... this is not last year's Prince.


tayshaun seems worse this year to me. they completely ignored him from the offense up until recently feels like

but i'm not a pistons fan so i'm probably wrong about him

[Kori Ellis]

Guys, y'all are sleepin' on Tayshaun Prince ........... this is not last year's Prince.

True. He's worse offensively.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

True. He's worse offensively.

thats what i thought

[Kori Ellis]

4 percent dropoff in both FG% and FT%
Less points, less blocks, less assists, less rebounds than last season.

[timvp]

True. He's worse offensively.

And defensively.

[Trainwreck2100]

I'm going to play the role of cwalk


Parker<<<<<<Billups
Superman<<<<<Rip
Jesus<<<<<<<Prince
The Incredible Hulk=Ben Wallace
King Kong<<<<<<Rasheed

[Amuseddaysleeper]

4 percent dropoff in both FG% and FT%
Less points, less blocks, less assists, less rebounds than last season.

k, so i despite manu's sketchy season the starting 5 matchups will be


TD = sheed (and maybe sheed should get a slight edge if only b/c sheed can get his shot off over TD anytime but not vice versa)

parker < billups

manu > tayshaun

bruce > rip (bruce can shut him down)

nazr << ben

(sigh)

but i still come to pistons in 6 :depressed

[timvp]

TD = sheed

:lmao

[Amuseddaysleeper]

:lmao


hold up timvp, i know TD is the better player but here's my thing

sheed can guard TD better than anyone int he league. sheed can block td's shot anytime PLUS get his shot off over TD anytime he wants to. ask duncan and he'll admit that much himself. which is why a lot of people will go with the canceling out of sheed and duncan. duncan will however get more blocks and boards than sheed. but his FG% will be low when goin up against sheed

[dragonfly]

The Spurs have three starters that have been together since Fall 2001: Tony, Bruce and Tim. Add Manu to the mix the next year, and you have a solid core of players together over 4 years. That kind of cohesion can't be bought, and gets you through deep playoff runs and road playoff games.


I think team chemistry on the game day will be the deciding factor. I see good chances for Spurs to win in 6. But as many has posted here - it's a lot of basketball to be played before the finals.

[timvp]

hold up timvp, i know TD is the better player but here's my thing

sheed can guard TD better than anyone int he league. sheed can block td's shot anytime PLUS get his shot off over TD anytime he wants to. ask duncan and he'll admit that much himself. which is why a lot of people will go with the canceling out of sheed and duncan. duncan will however get more blocks and boards than sheed. but his FG% will be low when goin up against sheed

Ask anyone in the NBA whether they'd want Sheed or a one-legged Tim Duncan on their team and you'd get a unanimous answer.

[Dre_7]

This is all futile. The Heat WILL win the east!

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Ask anyone in the NBA whether they'd want Sheed or a one-legged Tim Duncan on their team and you'd get a unanimous answer.

thats a fair assessment

[Amuseddaysleeper]

This is all futile. The Heat WILL win the east!

if the pistons aren't playing in this years playoffs then yes

even the suns and mavs could beat the heat in a playoff series let alone the pistons

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

The Heat might not make it out of the second round. And even if they do, that's going to be a tough, long series...

[timvp]

Detroit versus New Jersey in the ECF.

Book it.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

Detroit versus New Jersey in the ECF.

Book it.


I agree. Miami just doesn't have it this year...

[Dre_7]

We shall see.

[FreshPrince22]

Pistons in 3.

Ohh, and I'd bet you'll see Rip on Manu. He has really picked up his defense against the quick slashers, so I'm guessing he'll be on him now.

Billups >> Parker
Rip < Manu
Prince > Bowen
Sheed < Duncan (probably equal if Timmy doesn't get better)
Ben >> Nazr

Dice > You

:lol

[JamStone]

Pistons offense v. Spurs defense: I think when the Pistons play their best basketball, move the ball from side to side, get everyone involved, Flip's offense is pretty tough to defend. Pop's defense forces the ball to the baselines and tries to use the baseline as another defender. Pistons have great baseline jumpshooters. Bruce Bowen and Manu Ginobili are excellent perimeter defenders. Tim Duncan is a smart and great help defender. Rasheed spaces the floor well to cause defenses to adjust.

EDGE: slight edge to Pistons offense

Spurs offense v. Pistons defense: Tony Parker has been amazing this season. His midrange jumpshot has complemented his dribble penetration to keep defenses honest. When Manu Ginobili is healthy, his spontaneity and creativity keeps defenses on their heels. Tim Duncan is one of the top post offensive players in the league, even injured. Fortunately for the Pistons, with Rasheed and Ben, the Pistons can do a fairly adequate job on Tim with one-on-one coverage. Even though the Pistons have not been nearly as consistent defensively as last year, in recent weeks, the Pistons have been locking down teams better, and more especially in the second half and more specifically the fourth quarter even after giving up big first half offensive outputs. Detroit has been able to really stifle great offenses like Phoenix, Dallas, and a hot shooting Milwaukee ballclub in the second halves of their recent meetings. The Pistons, like the Spurs, are one of the best defensive teams in the league. And, when the Pistons play their best defense, they are great. Lindsey Hunter's healthy return has also given the bench some energy on the defensive end. When the Spurs click on all cylinders on offense, working inside out, driving and dishing, and everyone healthy, they are extremely difficult to stop.

EDGE: Tie

3-point shooting: Last year, I think the 3-point shooting may have helped determined the outcome of the series. This year, I'm hoping the same, as Detroit has an offense and personnel to really excel with the 3-point shot. The Pistons have been a top three shooting team from the arc all season. In the playoffs, however, Horry, Finley, and Van Exel might turn this aspect of the game into their own version of a corporate takeover. Those three and Barry and Manu are all dangerous from outside, while the Pistons really only have Chauncey and Rasheed, and maybe Tayshaun.

EDGE: Pistons ... based on the regular season so far, but with hesitation

Rebounding: Last year, Tim Duncan was a possessed animal on the glass. In the two meetings this regular season, the Pistons used their rebounding advantage to help win the two games. Nazr Mohammed is starting to get into form. And, Bruce Bowen has shown recent glimpses as to being a more than adequate rebounder for his size and position. Tim Duncan's PF is cause for concern, but he still gets around 10 rebounds a game. Wallace, Rasheed, and Prince are almost always good for 20 rebounds a game. McDyess has been much better on the glass recently as well.

EDGE: Pistons

Bench depth: Two former all stars and three former long-time NBA starters come off the bench for the Spurs. The Pistons have McDyess and Lindsey Hunter and a whole punch of unproven players or past-their prime vets. The Pistons will likely use a 7-8 man rotation unless there is foul trouble and it is yet to be determined whether Mo Evans, Carlos Delfino, or maybe even Tony Delk will be that 8th player. In recent weeks, the Pistons bench is playing a little more and are contributing more as well. Flip's indecision on the set rotation is a concern for some Pistons fans. Spurs have one of the top 3 benches in the NBA.

EDGE: Spurs

Free throws: Ben Wallace is awful. Tim and Tony can hit them, but every once in a while, for some reason, they miss important free throws down the stretch. Chauncey is a 90% free throw shooter. Rip Hamilton is an 85% free throw shooter. The Pistons keep the ball in their hands at the end of close games.

EDGE: Pistons

Coaching: Pop has proven it with three different teams. He's a great coach and motivator. Flip has failed countless times. He has yet to really prove he can make proper adjustments in the playoffs, especially on the spur (no pun intended) of the moment.

EDGE: Spurs by a mile

Turnovers: The Detroit Pistons turn the ball over the least in the NBA, and by a large margin.

EDGE: Pistons

Health: The Detroit core of players are the luckiest group of athletes over the last two years in terms of serious injury and overall health. The Spurs have been banged up all season long, which really makes their record all the more impressive. Tim's foot problems will be tested throughout a grueling playoff run. Manu has had some very good games, but lingering injury seems to have affected him quite a bit this season as well. The Pistons starters seem to keep on trucking. And, Pistons fans knock on wood in the hopes that it continues not only for this season, but for seasons to come.

EDGE: Pistons



The San Antonio Spurs were the better team last year before the series, during the series, and after the series. In most aspects of the game, they were the better team.

This season, I think the Detroit Pistons are the better team in most aspects of the game. That does not guarantee victory should the two teams meet. We don't even know if the two teams will meet at all yet. But, if they do, I think this year, the Pistons have a very good chance against the Spurs. I think they are the better team this season. The Spurs are the defending champs, so the Pistons will have to prove that they are better in order to dethrone them, IF they earn the opportunity by reaching the Finals.

[freedom&justice]

The Heat might not make it out of the second round. And even if they do, that's going to be a tough, long series...

Yeah. Jersey plays them tough, and that Heat defense can't contain RJ or Vince very well let alone Kidd. I think it goes to seven.

[JamStone]

In the playoffs, the Heat might sweep the Nets again. I really don't think New Jersey can beat the Heat in a seven game series.

[freedom&justice]

In the playoffs, the Heat might sweep the Nets again. I really don't think New Jersey can beat the Heat in a seven game series.

I don't think the heat will sweep the nets, though with Shaq and probably a healthy Alonzo, you never know. Last year's heat team is much better than this year's IMO but they also have a better coach..it's a toss up, I guess. I just hope the nets give the heat a tougher time, at the very least.

[Kori Ellis]

In the playoffs, the Heat might sweep the Nets again. I really don't think New Jersey can beat the Heat in a seven game series.

NJ is playing really good D lately. I don't think the Heat have any chance to sweep them. I think it will be a long series.

[polandprzem]

NJ-Mia

Great series. I wouldn't mind 7 games. And NJ wants a rematch that also can motivate them. It will.
The keys Jefferson, Krtic, Mourning, J-Will

[Vashner]

Yea.. .pre-mature post tulations...

It's like you hash it over too much..

It's gonna be a battle.. don't over analyze it... WAR is HE LL !!

[gospursgojas]

6. Tony Delk: I myself don't know much about Delk, but it looks like he can put up points and can shoot the ball.

Delk has a 50 pt game under his belt I belive....when he was with Phoenix

Too bad the Pistons only play 7

I say Spurs in 6

[jochhejaam]

True. He's worse offensively.
True, he hasn't played up to what I believe his potential is this year. I think Flip's still trying to effectively utilize his abilities. He's taken too many outside jumpers this year and that's not his game, he's better when he aggressively takes it to the basket which he's done very successfully the last 2 games.

Flip stressed a few games ago that the Pistons were relying too heavily on the outside jumper, that would be fine if we didn't have anyone capable of getting to the basket but Hamilton, Billups and Tayshaun are all capable of taking it to the hole. I'm sure we all know that you need an inside threat to open up the outside.

Hopefully Tay's recent success (21 pts/6 rbds over the last 3 games) is not an aberration but a trend that will carry over to the playoffs.

[1Parker1]

Detroit versus New Jersey in the ECF.

Book it.


They have no bench!

[101A]

The Spurs WILL win the championship.

(I read this in an article published last year, which also predicted the Spurs would win the ring - been searching for the article, ain't found it yet)

The three most reliable statistics for predicting an NBA champion are:

1. Point Differential
2. Opp. FG %
3. # Games won by > 10 pts.

Spurs lead in #1, are 3rd in #2, and they lead in #3.

Also, although it is not part of the prediction model; Spurs are still consistently blowing teams out, Detroit not so much anymore.

Breaking it down position by position might sometimes work for the 1st game of a series, but it irrelevent over the course of a series. With two evenly matched, teams, coaching and defensive adjustments are going to make an enormouse difference. Last year; Pop V. LB was a very close matchup; I don't believe Flip can hang; and his playoff record suggests as much - as his team's productivity historically has diminished, not improved throughout a series.

[1Parker1]

Blowing out teams consistently? That's not going to happen often in the playoffs...those games are going to be close. Pistons have shown their ability to come back from behind and beat good teams, down 17, down 15, down 20 points. Spurs have had few games like that this season it seems. Maybe because they're blowing out more teams. Not that it really matters either way I guess, it all rests on Manu and Tim anyways.

[smeagol]

Maybe because they're blowing out more teams. Not that it really matters either way I guess, it all rests on Manu and Tim anyways.
1P1, is that you or has an Argie taken over your keyboard? :spin

We are going toneed TP slashingto the basket and hitting some outside shots if we want to beat the Pistons.

[1Parker1]

1P1, is that you or has an Argie taken over your keyboard? :spin

We are going toneed TP slashingto the basket and hitting some outside shots if we want to beat the Pistons.

:lol Well TP hitting his outside shot in that series would just be a bonus. I still think we'd need a healthy Duncan and an X-factor in Manu to beat the Pistons without HCA.

[smeagol]

The Pistons are crazy good. We will need everybody (that includes the bench guys too) firing with all cylinders if we are going to beat them. If both teams get to the finals, it will be a remake of last year.

Spurs in 7.

[1Parker1]

^Well, except for maybe the Spurs wouldn't have HCA in Game 7 like last year. Here's hoping Pistons go on a 3 game losing streak and Sheed gets a tech every game (since he now has to miss every other game per tech!)

[ctpsb]

I personally think you throw out the matchups. I believe it all comes down to home-court. Do the Spurs win at least one in Detroit while winning all here? I think that's a big question in a 2-3-2 format. Am I wrong??

[JamStone]

The Spurs WILL win the championship.

(I read this in an article published last year, which also predicted the Spurs would win the ring - been searching for the article, ain't found it yet)

The three most reliable statistics for predicting an NBA champion are:

1. Point Differential
2. Opp. FG %
3. # Games won by > 10 pts.

Spurs lead in #1, are 3rd in #2, and they lead in #3.

Also, although it is not part of the prediction model; Spurs are still consistently blowing teams out, Detroit not so much anymore.




Not a bad formula to be used as a barometer of championship chances. But, instead of just stating how the Spurs are #1 or #2 in each category, perhaps it is better to compare the two teams in this discussion.


1. Point Differential

Spurs: +7.1
Pistons: +7.1 (had the lead throughout the majority of the season)


2. Opp FG%

Spurs: .432
Pistons: .451

Spurs are better defensively. Pistons seem not to play their best defense until the second half of games. That must be addressed in the playoffs.


3. # Games won by > 10 pts (including 10 point wins, I assume)

Spurs: 27
Pistons: 25

[austinfan]

^Well, except for maybe the Spurs wouldn't have HCA in Game 7 like last year. Here's hoping Pistons go on a 3 game losing streak and Sheed gets a tech every game (since he now has to miss every other game per tech!)

I read somewhere that the technical count gets reset for the playoffs, so unless Sheed goes ballistic against the Nets, he won't have that problem to deal with against the Spurs. ITA with 101A, though, that it'll be all about the coaching and defensive adjustments in a Spurs-Pistons series. We're just too closely matched otherwise.

[DDS4]

Spurs offense v. Pistons defense: Tony Parker has been amazing this season. His midrange jumpshot has complemented his dribble penetration to keep defenses honest. When Manu Ginobili is healthy, his spontaneity and creativity keeps defenses on their heels. Tim Duncan is one of the top post offensive players in the league, even injured. Fortunately for the Pistons, with Rasheed and Ben, the Pistons can do a fairly adequate job on Tim with one-on-one coverage. Even though the Pistons have not been nearly as consistent defensively as last year, in recent weeks, the Pistons have been locking down teams better, and more especially in the second half and more specifically the fourth quarter even after giving up big first half offensive outputs. Detroit has been able to really stifle great offenses like Phoenix, Dallas, and a hot shooting Milwaukee ballclub in the second halves of their recent meetings. The Pistons, like the Spurs, are one of the best defensive teams in the league. And, when the Pistons play their best defense, they are great. Lindsey Hunter's healthy return has also given the bench some energy on the defensive end. When the Spurs click on all cylinders on offense, working inside out, driving and dishing, and everyone healthy, they are extremely difficult to stop.

EDGE: Tie.

The only point of yours I disagree on. Slight edge to the Spurs.

Just like you said before that the Spurs can't stop the Pistons offense if they are on....the same can be said in reverse. When the Spurs are on, their ball movement is second to none. And it's predicated on Tim dishing out to open shooters and not necessarily his one-on-one matchup with Sheed/Ben.

If anything, the Spurs are a better jumpshooting team with the new additions compared to last year.

[zeleni]

This is all futile. The Heat WILL win the east!

New Jersey Nets

Flip hasn't got a chance.

[FreshPrince22]

Not a bad formula to be used as a barometer of championship chances. But, instead of just stating how the Spurs are #1 or #2 in each category, perhaps it is better to compare the two teams in this discussion.


1. Point Differential

Spurs: +7.1
Pistons: +7.1 (had the lead throughout the majority of the season)



3. # Games won by > 10 pts (including 10 point wins, I assume)

Spurs: 27
Pistons: 25

Those are thrown off by our horrid garbage time play. For Example, Darko played about 139 minutes for the Pistons this year, and he was -94 during that strech. I know for a fact they have pissed away at least 5-6 15-16 point leads down to the 5-9 point range, and it also kills their point differential. -94 points over about 60 games (when Darko was here) takes almost 1.5 off your point differential. That doesn't even count guys like Acker, who had played a whopping 4 minutes (post-Darko) and is a laughable -19. Just a thought.

[101A]

Not a bad formula to be used as a barometer of championship chances. But, instead of just stating how the Spurs are #1 or #2 in each category, perhaps it is better to compare the two teams in this discussion.


1. Point Differential

Spurs: +7.1
Pistons: +7.1 (had the lead throughout the majority of the season)


2. Opp FG%

Spurs: .432
Pistons: .451

Spurs are better defensively. Pistons seem not to play their best defense until the second half of games. That must be addressed in the playoffs.


3. # Games won by > 10 pts (including 10 point wins, I assume)

Spurs: 27
Pistons: 25


The thing about statistics as a barometer - is you simply take them at face value, and don't try to explain WHY they are what they are. The predicter exists that if you dominate in those three categories, regardless of WHY you tend to win the NBA championship.

As a Detroit fan, it would concern me that, yes, Detroit DID lead in the FG % for a great amount of the season (as well as "blow-out" wins, but by the end that is changing). I feel more comfortable as a Spurs fan with the reversed role (of course if Pop begins to let the team coast, Detroit could easily take the lead in each of those categories, making the statistical choice based on those barometers more of a toss-up, since Detroit simply isn't on the map of opponent fg% this season).

[tlongII]

Pistons in 5. The Spurs will be in big trouble.

[JamStone]

The thing about statistics as a barometer - is you simply take them at face value, and don't try to explain WHY they are what they are. The predicter exists that if you dominate in those three categories, regardless of WHY you tend to win the NBA championship.

As a Detroit fan, it would concern me that, yes, Detroit DID lead in the FG % for a great amount of the season (as well as "blow-out" wins, but by the end that is changing). I feel more comfortable as a Spurs fan with the reversed role (of course if Pop begins to let the team coast, Detroit could easily take the lead in each of those categories, making the statistical choice based on those barometers more of a toss-up, since Detroit simply isn't on the map of opponent fg% this season).


I don't believe Detroit ever led in the FG%, but I know they have led in point differential and were among the top in 10+ point wins. As you said, by the end of the season, who knows which team will end up being the leader in those categories. And, while they are good indicators, I hardly believe they are always guaranteed predictors. There were a few teams--I think Rockets may have been one--that had better Opp. FG% last year. And, I doubt the Pistons were among the top in point differential or 10+ pt wins in 2004 when they won it all.

My point in actually listing the numbers of the two teams with respect to those three categories you brought up was to show that Detroit was fairly close in all three categories. Opp. FG% is quite behind, but I think most would agree that Detroit is still one of the best defensive teams when they really play. I must admit especially earlier in the season, their defense was somewhat disappointing, but easy to swallow because of all of the wins.

And, it has already been brought up, but the Pistons had several (at least four games off the top of my head) in which they had more than a ten point lead in the closing minutes of a game where the end of the bench gave up a lot of points to make the wins less than 10 pt wins. I don't remember the opponent, but I do remember a game in which the "scrubs" let a 12 pt lead fall to a 3 pt win.

At any rate, those stat categories as barometers for championship hopes are all well and good. The Spurs are absolutely one of the favorites to win it all. I think the Pistons are as well.

[101A]

I don't believe Detroit ever led in the FG%, but I know they have led in point differential and were among the top in 10+ point wins.

Yeah, meant to type Point Differential, didn't come out that way....



The Spurs are absolutely one of the favorites to win it all. I think the Pistons are as well.


Spurs and Pistons are the only favorites, agreed - also NO team had ever won the 3-5 games on their home floor in the finals until Detroit shattered that particular hook the Lakers had hung their hats on.

[JamStone]

i think one other team won 3-5, not sure which...

Not being the hometeam winning 3-5. Detroit in 2004 were the first to win all middle three games as the hometeam. There have been teams that have won the middle three on the road ... I think the Lakers did in 2001 against the Sixers and I know the Pistons did it in 1990 against Portland. But, only the 2004 Pistons to be the hometeam in the middle three were able to do that.

[SAGambler]

Just my 2 cents here, but as even as they are on paper, the playoffs can be long and hard. IMO, whoever makes it to the playoffs with the healthiest team and the least games played to get there, has to have the edge.

I still thnk Spurs in 6 or 7 at this point.

It may change, but Detroit has gotten into a bad habit of playing lazy the first half, and depending on turning it up the second half to barely scrape out a win.

If that trend continues, look for the Nets to win the East.

[DetroitSpursFan]

Spurs in 7, they win in Detroit. These teams are both really solid, they played a great, close series last year and there is no doubt another series will be just as close.

Detroit is better than last year, Chauncey, Rip, Sheed, Ben and Tay are playing better, McDyess is peaking, adding Davis, Delk, Mo, and Carlos (who wasnt on the playoff roster last year) is a big improvment.

Pistons can score with anyone, and their defense can stop any team anytime they want.

However I still think the Spurs are a better team. I think Manu and Tony are too quick for Detroit, they will get into the paint pretty easily. Bowen is the perfect player to shut down their leading scorer, Rip, and in crunch time switch him on Chauncey like we did in game 7. Pistons are a premiter shooting team, they dont score in the paint, that is not a good formula for playoff basketball. The Spurs bench is just so much better than Detroits, and I give the coaching edge to Pop, comapre their playoff records to see why.

Dont let those regular season games fool you, the spurs, kinda like the Pistons, will be a different team come playoff time, heck they are a different team now. Duncan and Sheed will have a solid series, Rip and Bowen will be a great matchup to watch, its gonna be a great fun series and I cant wait until June.

[JamStone]

Spurs in 6 or 7 on the winningest homecourt in the league? I'm not saying it couldn't happen. But, predicting that is rather bold. If you're going to pick the Spurs, pick them in 5 so they finish the Pistons off in San Antonio. The Spurs have never won a game 7 on the road. And, if it's a game 7 at the Palace, the odds are slim to none that they beat Detroit.

[Dre_7]

If Mourning (and obviously the rest of the Heat) are healthy, they WILL beat the Pistons. Book it!

[101A]

Spurs in 6 or 7 on the winningest homecourt in the league? I'm not saying it couldn't happen. But, predicting that is rather bold. If you're going to pick the Spurs, pick them in 5 so they finish the Pistons off in San Antonio. The Spurs have never won a game 7 on the road. And, if it's a game 7 at the Palace, the odds are slim to none that they beat Detroit.

What were the odds they would win game 5 last year?

What were the odds the Pistons would win game 6?

[JamStone]

Game 5 is not game 7. And, actually, I think the Spurs had pretty good odds of winning game 5 last year, because beating the Spurs in three straight games is pretty tough.

As for the Pistons winning game 6, the core of the Pistons have had a lot of road success in the playoffs in crucial games: winning game 6 in Orlando in the first round of the 2003 playoffs down 3-2; winning game 6 on the road in New Jersey in the 2004 EC Semifinals down 3-2; winning game 7 in Miami in the 2005 EC Finals. I think the odds of the Pistons winning game 6 were pretty good with reference to how they have played in the playoffs on the road in crucial, even elimination, game situations.

[Sportman]

THE FIRST POINT, people must think, should be if are the spurs going to be in the finals again and the same for pistons fans? :oops :oops

[101A]

Game 5 is not game 7. And, actually, I think the Spurs had pretty good odds of winning game 5 last year, because beating the Spurs in three straight games is pretty tough.

As for the Pistons winning game 6, the core of the Pistons have had a lot of road success in the playoffs in crucial games: winning game 6 in Orlando in the first round of the 2003 playoffs down 3-2; winning game 6 on the road in New Jersey in the 2004 EC Semifinals down 3-2; winning game 7 in Miami in the 2005 EC Finals. I think the odds of the Pistons winning game 6 were pretty good with reference to how they have played in the playoffs on the road in crucial, even elimination, game situations.

The point being, you made a statement that winning in 6 or 7 would mean the Spurs would have to win IN Detroit, like that is some unimaginable feat. No moreso than winning in SA or Detroit LAST year;

and, btw, the Spurs have had some reasonable success on the road in the playoffs, as well.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

The point being, you made a statement that winning in 6 or 7 would mean the Spurs would have to win IN Detroit, like that is some unimaginable feat. No moreso than winning in SA or Detroit LAST year;

and, btw, the Spurs have had some reasonable success on the road in the playoffs, as well.


i dont think he doubts the spurs could win a game in detroit but if the spurs have to win games 6 AND 7 in detroit it might be too much to overcome considering detroit has only lost twice at home all year. detroit faced a similiar problem last as winning 2 straight on the road to close the series against a team like SA is a pretty tough task.

[td4mvp21]

Spurs in 6 or 7 on the winningest homecourt in the league? I'm not saying it couldn't happen. But, predicting that is rather bold. If you're going to pick the Spurs, pick them in 5 so they finish the Pistons off in San Antonio. The Spurs have never won a game 7 on the road. And, if it's a game 7 at the Palace, the odds are slim to none that they beat Detroit.

Well, ALL Pistons fans were bold enough last year to say that you guys would win against the winningeste homecourt in the league.

[101A]

i dont think he doubts the spurs could win a game in detroit but if the spurs have to win games 6 AND 7 in detroit it might be too much to overcome considering detroit has only lost twice at home all year. detroit faced a similiar problem last as winning 2 straight on the road to close the series against a team like SA is a pretty tough task.


You're giving him too much credit. He was chastising ANY Spurs fan for picking Spurs in 6 or 7, saying essentially, that if it goes as far as 6, since it's on Detroit's floor, the Pistons would win. He didn't qualify it as you have.

[JamStone]

Actually, what I said was:

"Spurs in 6 or 7 on the winningest homecourt in the league? I'm not saying it couldn't happen. But, predicting that is rather bold. If you're going to pick the Spurs, pick them in 5 so they finish the Pistons off in San Antonio. The Spurs have never won a game 7 on the road. And, if it's a game 7 at the Palace, the odds are slim to none that they beat Detroit."


In fact, the Spurs have never won an ELIMINATION game 6 on the road. They've won game 6's before on the road, but only when they were up in the series.

My point is that it would be extremely difficult for the Spurs to win in 6 or 7 games against the Pistons if Detroit has HCA. And, yes I did "qualify" what I said by stating that it was possible ("not saying it couldn't happen").

My earlier examples showed that the Detroit Pistons have had a history of being tough enough to get road wins when they faced elimination ... again 2003 against the Orlando Magic in game 6 at Orlando, after being down 3-1 in that series, game 6 IN New Jersey in the 2004 EC Semifinals being down 3-2, winning game 7 of the 2005 ECF AT Miami, even winning game 6 in San Antonio in the Finals last year when no other team in history had even won game 6 in the NBA finals on the road being down 3-2 in the 2-3-2 format.

That's why I think it is easier for a Pistons fan to be more confident that the Pistons could pull out a "must-win" game on the road than Spurs fans should be of the Spurs. When the Spurs get down in a playoff series, they lose on the road. Find me evidence to the contrary.

[DetroitSpursFan]

I never understood the argument "[insert team] has never won _______ [kind of game]". No baseball team had won a playoff series after being done 0-3, but then it happened (on the road too).

The Pistons never won a game 7 on the road until they beat the Heat last year. So what the Spurs have never won a game 7 on the road? They havent PLAYED a game 7 on the road with Duncan / Manu / Parker.

The better team will always win a best of 7 series. If game 7 is on the road, the better team, not neccessarily the home team, will take it, and I think San Antonio is the better team.

Plus I think it would be MORE bold to predict Spurs in 5 then Spurs in 7 - these teams are too good to let the series end in 5 games. It will go 7, and the Spurs will win in Detroit.

[JamStone]

If it goes 7 and it's at the Palace, I don't see the Spurs winning it.

[101A]

When the Spurs get down in a playoff series, they lose on the road. Find me evidence to the contrary.

Game 5 last year was as close to "being down" as a team could be, considering how 3 & 4 went.

Also, Spurs have "been down", dropping game 1 of series many times, only to come storming back. Typically the Spurs play from in front; taking control of series, and finishing teams off. Notable exception is Detroit last year; and conventional wisdom, all national pundits, and certainly Detroit Fan thought for SURE that that tough Detroit 7th game experience would rule the day.

Fact is, Detroit tightened, the Spurs extended; would HCA have made a difference? I don't know, and neither do you. All I know is, Detroit has made a big deal about that HCA all year, and has played their asses off to get it. How will they respond if the Spurs come in and pop em in the mouth in game 1, and wrench that hard-fought, absolutely essential, HCA away in 48 minutes? I'm betting not well.

[ObiwanGinobili]

Spurs in 6 @ auburn hills.

yes. I'm a believer.

[SpurForLife]

Spurs in 6 @ auburn hills.

yes. I'm a believer.


Me too.

[Vinnie_Johnson]

Pistons in six closing out at home sorry guys that's the way I see it.

[JamStone]

Game 5 last year was as close to "being down" as a team could be, considering how 3 & 4 went.

Also, Spurs have "been down", dropping game 1 of series many times, only to come storming back. Typically the Spurs play from in front; taking control of series, and finishing teams off. Notable exception is Detroit last year; and conventional wisdom, all national pundits, and certainly Detroit Fan thought for SURE that that tough Detroit 7th game experience would rule the day.

Fact is, Detroit tightened, the Spurs extended; would HCA have made a difference? I don't know, and neither do you. All I know is, Detroit has made a big deal about that HCA all year, and has played their asses off to get it. How will they respond if the Spurs come in and pop em in the mouth in game 1, and wrench that hard-fought, absolutely essential, HCA away in 48 minutes? I'm betting not well.


None of those examples, including game 5 last year was an ELIMINATION game. And, even if the Spurs lost game 5, the Spurs had the comfort of knowing they had the last two games at home. There is not the same kind of pressure as an elimination game 6 or 7 on the road, and you know it.

As for Detroit tightening in game 7 of last year ... ummmm what? The score was 57-57 after three quarters with Chauncey, Rasheed, and Dice all in foul trouble for long stretches of the game. Larry Brown made a coaching mistake by sliding Tayshaun over to the power forward position and that's when the Spurs really made their run. Spurs outplayed the Pistons in the fourth quarter. Bruce Bowen made a great defensive play on Chauncey to seal the game. If you think the Pistons tightened in game 7, that tells me you think they should have won, talent wise.

Spurs have been great over the last 8 years. But, when they've won, they have never had the elimination pressure in any series except last years finals AT HOME. They have never faced the adversity of having to win a game on the road in an elimination situation. The one time they did, they lost to the Lakers in 2004. In 2001, the Spurs got swept out of the WC finals. In 2002, the Spurs got were sent home by the Lakers again, this time in five games.

As great as the Spurs have been, they haven't really shown the propensity to win a tough game on the road in an elimination situation when they had to have it. So, if the Spurs and Pistons are both similarly good, and it's up to game 7 at the Palace where the Spurs have to win on the road, I would bet against them, just as much as I would put my money ON THE SPURS if it were in San Antonio.

[leemajors]

i think this is really a matter of team penis size averages.

[JamStone]

i think this is really a matter of team penis size averages.


We traded Darko and Arroyo for a 7-foot black man.

[Jimcs50]

It is going to be Spurs vs New Jersey.

This thread is pointless.

[smeagol]

It is going to be Spurs vs New Jersey.
That's every Spurs fan's wish. I don't see it happening. VC will choke as usual.

[DarkReign]

i think this is really a matter of team penis size averages.

LOL

Although, looking at the trends, Jam is right. Pistons are known and almost expected to gut out that one "MUST WIN" game. By 'must win', I mean to keep a series going. To have another chance. Game 7 is the end all, be all of any series. There is no second chance.

Spurs, not so much. If you punch them in the mouth early, they usually crumble. Get up 2 games on them and the series is over.

Basically, the Spurs had better win one of first 2 games on the Pistons court, because the Pistons are going to win at least one on yours.

BUT! This is all bullshit. Last I checked, the L-East just got a whooooole lot tougher seeing as Miami and NJ finally decided to play basketball. EC Finals are going to be TOUGH. I was very confident in the Pistons making the Finals again. Not so much anymore.

[ManuTim_best of Fwiendz]

NJ has had a good regular season run again, but I really don't care to take them seriously. Pistons are the only Non-Pretender. Heat could be an upset because Wade gives Pistons' a problem and Riley can outcoach unproven Flip. Coaching plays a bigger factor in playoffs than regular season games. Last year the Pistons were kind of cocky for the ECF then Wade woke them up. I like Wade too so it'd be cool to see him settle the score, because the Pistons act like they got a chip on their shoulder.

Still, Pistons are the real deal so:

If Spurs vs. Pistons

Pop has to deal with the new offensive schemes Flip set up in addition to the same ol' Pistons' defense.

Talent-wise Spurs have the edge. 3 Stars + Bench > Pistons 5 + Bench

Pistons stone-cold will to win > Spurs complacent game/doubts creep in, after a win nonsense. So damn annoying.

Manu + Horry intangibles > Chauncey's big shots

If Spurs correct their rebounding problem it'll be a close match-up, etc. Can't really predict anything really for a Spurs-Pistons rematch, we'll just have to wait and see. Last year's series was an ultimate grind. I dont know how a Spurs or Pistons fan could take it without ripping their hair out again. The Championship is much more worthy though if Pistons make it. It's so much better than the LEASTERN conference crap we had the previous 4 years.

It'd be cool to see Heat vs. Spurs because it'd be nice for Shaq to be back as an old foe. Though we don't know how Wade would be on the big stage. Ideally it'd be cool to see Wade vs. Parker and Gino trading spectacular plays. Pop the Winning coach of this era vs. Riley the winning coach of old.