Point differential

[Rummpd]

Right now Spurs at 7.11 per game vs. Pistons at 7.05. (www.nba.com stats)

John Holllinger once showed a stat on ESPN Insider, team with highest Pt differential wins championship about 55% of the time.

One of the reasons, many analysts (including myself) thought there was probably no way Pistons were going to win 70 is their Pt diff was always significantly under 10 pts. per game.

In recent hix, only Chicago's 72 win club (+ last years SAS through Duncan's injury) were over 10 PT for season I believe.

At one point this year, Detroit was more than 2 PTs diff over Spurs. Yet, they have really fallen back as they have had losses, but also many narrower wins than early on when they were steam-rolling opponents. Right now the Pistons are also about +2 in offensive points per game over Spurs. Meanwhile, the Spurs are on average the much better defending team (however, Pistons like Spurs only team I have seen that at their best can truly lock teams down still.).

Expecting some Mavs fan to jump in an say what about us (?) - let me state for the record that true "lock down" defense wins championships, and Mavs have not shown enough on that side of ball, yet, for me to move into true elite category. Perhaps, in a year or so as Josh Howard is an excellent defender but he and others have to cover for some weak links.

Suddenly, the Nets are locking down teams - can that last?

[SilverPlayer]

good call....still makes it pretty even money for the finals of Spurs vs Pistons. I'd be interested to know pt differential on the road vs. at home. That would help deteremine how important HCA will be.

[Solid D]

Yeah, we had a thread discussing this last week also. The Spurs actually were at +10.2 point diff. as late as February before Tim was injured in 2004-05 season.

The Pistons are still very good at executing down the stretch and that counts in the playoffs.

[Rummpd]

Sorry I missed that thread, but should point out Spurs also very good this year in close games and I believe might lead league in that category.

Spurs not as dominant as past years perhaps yet, but have not blown as many big leads and appear to be more clutch.

Spurs even seem to hit FTs when they need to.

[dmac]

as long as we beat everyone by at least 1, I'll be happy.

[anthologyct]

Right now Spurs at 7.11 per game vs. Pistons at 7.05. (www.nba.com stats)

John Holllinger once showed a stat on ESPN Insider, team with highest Pt differential wins championship about 55% of the time.

One of the reasons, many analysts (including myself) thought there was probably no way Pistons were going to win 70 is their Pt diff was always significantly under 10 pts. per game.

In recent hix, only Chicago's 72 win club (+ last years SAS through Duncan's injury) were over 10 PT for season I believe.

At one point this year, Detroit was more than 2 PTs diff over Spurs. Yet, they have really fallen back as they have had losses, but also many narrower wins than early on when they were steam-rolling opponents. Right now the Pistons are also about +2 in offensive points per game over Spurs. Meanwhile, the Spurs are on average the much better defending team (however, Pistons like Spurs only team I have seen that at their best can truly lock teams down still.).

Expecting some Mavs fan to jump in an say what about us (?) - let me state for the record that true "lock down" defense wins championships, and Mavs have not shown enough on that side of ball, yet, for me to move into true elite category. Perhaps, in a year or so as Josh Howard is an excellent defender but he and others have to cover for some weak links.

Suddenly, the Nets are locking down teams - can that last?


With tonight's lose to the Kings, the Spurs' + point differential has dropped to 6.9 ............. so does that mean that the Pistons with its +7.05 differential now have that 55% chance of beating San Antonio?

Now, while I'll agree with Hollinger, I don't think it makes much of a difference when you're talking about less than 1/100th of a point ....... 7.11-7.05 = 0.06. Probably, in the modern era of basketball, when the 2 teams met in the finals, the reason the winning point differential team won was because they had a higher margin than just 0.06. Don't you think?

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Stats really don't matter right now. This team would get killed by Detroit the way it's playing right now. They all need to get their shit together.

[SequSpur]

Stats don't mean shit. Look at Duncan.

[Rummpd]

Health factors in - Spurs have to be down a point a game vs. Pistons on average just due to that. Some coaches go for the kill each game, Pop does not and woe and behold a Spurs who shoots in last seconds to run up a score.

Stats can be used for anything, as an epidemiologist by training, I "can smudge anything" to a point and agree there is overlap and not much difference in small margins.

Now Hollinger is all about stats and he does make some credible arguements but the game is not just stats.

Still I believe the championship now goes still through Pistons and Spurs and health will be the key factor - to win Spurs need it and if Pistons lose a key starter *particularily in back court, their season could flame out big time.

I would guess that if top three Point Diff were tablulated for each season the eventual championship came out of that group around 80% of time and someday might write that story for a site I write for after the appropriate research.

[FreshPrince22]

haha... The Pistons are the worst garbage time team in the history of the league. I put absolutely no stock in that stat.

Look at it like this... Darko Milicic played about 139 minutes as a Piston this year (garbage time). He was -94 in those minutes. Alex Acker has played 4 minutes (all of them after Darko was traded in garbage time) and he is -19 on the season. That's -113 in garbage time alone which equals out to -1.53 on the overall point differential. (All numbers from 82games.com)

So you think poor garbage time play from guys like Darko, Acker, Amir Johnson, and Arroyo are going to hurt our chances at a title? :lol Keep grasping at every straw you can find.

[JamStone]

Even at 80%, that means 1 out of every 5 years, the NBA champion does not have a great point differential.

Stats are good reference points and make for good discussion topics sometimes.

But, in sports, there is always that chance that a cursed Boston Red Sox team come from down 3-1 to beat the Yankees in a playoff series. There's always that chance that an injured Willis Reed on one leg leads his team to a championship. There's always a chance that a heavily favorred Georgetown team falls to a fearless but far less talented Villanova team in the NCAA tournament. There's always a chance that an unheralded Detroit Pistons team defeats an LA Lakers team with four future Hall of Famers in the NBA Finals.

Stats are fun to look up, reference, and even support a point. Stats don't play the games. The point differential means squat, in my opinion. Look up the Houston Rockets' point differential and even their win totals when they won the championships in the mid 90s.

And, HEALTH is a factor for every single team in professional sports. Being relatively healthy is always important for championship teams, every year.

[Rummpd]

What do you put stock in? Props were given to your team and no insults - Pistons a very good team but still have to show they can get there with FlipFlop as their coach - the only one on the Pistons one can make fun of due to hideous playoff record.

Plus your starters play more minutes so don't give me that garbage time *&^% and have been blessed with good health.

Hope we see you in the finals and the best team will win, i.e. the Spurs

[FreshPrince22]

What do you put stock in?

Wins and Losses.

[unstandable]

Point differential doesn't tell you much. Last season the Spurs were +7.8 while the Pistons were +3.9. That's a pretty massive difference, yet the Finals proved the teams to be as close to evenly matched as it gets.

[JamStone]

You didn't really insult the Pistons until this last post. I didn't insult the Spurs once in my post. Why the hostility, Rummpd?

My post just said stats aren't everything.

And, don't pretend to be all cavalier with "I gave your team props and no insults" with all the subtle undertones you write with. Come on man, most of the props were back-handed compliments, and you know it. Your posts are always full of subtle jabs to discredit what the Pistons have done and to rationalize why the Spurs are still better.

Get over yourself, man.

Waaaa waaaa waaaa, the Pistons have been healthy all year ...
Waaaa waaaa waaaa, we have just as good a point differential and even 5-100ths of a point better than those lucky Pistons ...
Waaaa waaaa waaa, wait til one of the Pistons' starters gets hurt and watch their season flame out ...
Waaaa waaaa waaa, I've waited three months for the Spurs to get a .05 better point differential than the Pistons so I could make this post ....


Are you serious???

Again, get over yourself.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

Down goes Frazier, down goes Frazier!!

Seriously, you guys fucking crack me up...

:fro

[anthologyct]

Pistons a very good team but still have to show they can get there with FlipFlop as their coach - the only one on the Pistons one can make fun of due to hideous playoff record.

Rummpd,

Name 1 playoff series that Flip's team lost that they were favored to win. When you look at the teams he's lost to over the years, (Champion Spurs, Rockets with Hakeem, Barkely, Drexler, The Laker Dynasty, the '00 Blazers, The Kings, The 2x Finals Jazz team, etc .........) it's amazing that Flip even won as much as he did. And once the finally put some good pieces around Garnett to at least have a chance at success, they ran into the '04 Lakers. Tough luck.

It's been universally agreed by pros that Flip's teams overachieved in the regular season & playoffs.

Now I'm not sayin' that Flip has the same credentials as Pop or LB, but he's not that bad.

[Rummpd]

I seriously believe that a very small minority of Pistons fans have an incredilbe inferiority complex despite the reality that their team has won 3 titles in recent memory (including the BadBoy years), have a great team, have a reviving city, have great management and I believe that it comes from the fact, that when push came to shove the Spurs withstood in a historic 7th game the best shot of the Pistons, and won the title last year.

The fact is though they are both great teams.

As such, the Pistons could well win it this year even with Flip as the coach and then we can all move on about him too.

That being said if the Pistons do not win the title after their historic start and they way they were being portrayed it may well be considered one of the biggest flame outs ever for a team without a major injury.

I personally still believe they will not win - but could well be wrong.

Why?

Spurs depth and a TD that with rest will be dealing with plantar fasciitis but at least not two bad ankles, an improved Parker, a reviving Ginobili.

Moreover, while I was in Nevada discussing it with some bookies recently at a conference in Reno, to a man they also favored the Spurs or were seeing fans of other teams hedge their bets with a Spurs play.

Finally, it looked for awhile like the Pistons would sleep through their conference to get to the finals, now that is not going to happen = other teams have improved and the Pistons have seemingly lost some of their intimidation factor.

Time will tell and again I respect the Pistons and their fans but some are very defensive when they don't have to be (as Mavs fans should be).

[JamStone]

Rummpd,

Did you read your last post when I didn't even mention the Spurs in my last post? That's getting defensive.

Every post you make is defensive if it's even remotely inferred that the Pistons might beat the Spurs in the Finals this year ... which, by the way, my post didn't.

First time all season the Spurs have a better point differential, and you start this thread. Defensive?

When the Pistons started out as well as they did, you wrote a fucking article early in the season for that crap site Hoopsworld to claim how much better the Spurs still were than the Pistons. Defensive?

It seems like half your posts on this site takes subtle jabs on the Pistons and how great the Spurs have, qualifying how injured they've been. Defensive?

After a loss, you want your own fellow Spurs fans to chill because everything will be okay after you finish your fellatio duties on every Spurs player, coach, and staff member. Defensive?

Rummpd, you're a fucking little Napolean when it comes to any harsh criticism of the Spurs, deserved or not. But, I digress ... I don't mean to get OFFENSIVE.

[FreshPrince22]

I seriously believe that a very small minority of Pistons fans have an incredilbe inferiority complex


:lol This coming from the guy who created this thread about point differential to make yourself feel better about your Spurs having a worse record than the Pistons and having been beaten badly in both meetings between the teams.

But you're right. It's Pistons Fans that have the inferiority complex. :drunk

This stuff is nonsense. The games decide who wins.

[Dunc]

Jamstone and Freshprince22, I just want you guys to know that you make me proud everytime you post :)

[Rummpd]

This is a Spurs forum is it not?

Boy talk about defensive, at no point have I the Pistons are not a formidable team - just that they were never as good as their record, and many writers said the same thing.

No more subtle jabs - I hope we really see all you in the finals. It would be good match up, but again, the team with the top superstar, better coach,and deeper bench should win out.
Pistons will have HCA and deserve it. Bring it on.

[SpursWoman]

Moreover, while I was in Nevada discussing it with some bookies recently at a conference in Reno, to a man they also favored the Spurs or were seeing fans of other teams hedge their bets with a Spurs play

Right. Because no one has ever bet on the Spurs and lost their money. Everyone on the planet can bet on the Spurs..but unless Detroit's entire starting line up gets hit by a bus carrying all of these people to their bookies, that is in no way going to effect the outcome of any game(s).

They are just *feelings*... of which that and $5,646 might get you a grande latte at Starbuck's. :fro