Closing the gap...

[exstatic]

Latest Gallup Poll results (http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/03/gallup.poll/index.html)

(CNN) -- President Bush and his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, are about even among likely and registered voters in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, released Sunday.

The poll showed Kerry and Bush tied at 49 percent each among likely voters interviewed. Among registered voters Bush had 49 percent and Kerry 47 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was favored by 1 percent in each group.

The margin of error in each case was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

By contrast, Bush was ahead of Kerry among likely voters 52 percent to 44 percent in the Gallup poll conducted September 24-26. Among registered voters in that poll, the spread was 53 percent for Bush and 42 percent for Kerry. Nader had 3 percent among each group.
:wink

[Marcus Bryant]

Until this poll releases its internals so we can have a better look at the sample mix then I remain skeptical. Also, if this is not reflected in the state level polls which come out over the next week then this poll won't mean much.

A Newsweak editor was quoted a few months back as claiming that the national media wanted Bush out and that was worth "15 points" to Kerry. Judging by the chicanery of the latest Newsweak poll I have a greater appreciation for the man's comments.

May sound crazy, but after Dan Rather told us some memos were written with MS Word back in 1972 I wouldn't be surprised. The national media needs an exciting race to write about and they are personally inclined to oppose any Republican president.

[exstatic]

Funny. You had NO problem with Gallup's polling methods here (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3635&page=1&pp=20) , even going so far as to use LAST weeks numbers in your post to rebut the immediate post-debate numbers. Guess it wasn't important THEN how they did their sampling, but now that Kerry closed the gap to two points, it's suspect polling methods. :rolleyes

[Marcus Bryant]

Sure, I assumed those methods were correct. Like I said, let's take a look at the sample detail before you start jacking off.

Also, I've been rather clear for quite some time that I think what is happening on a state by state basis in the polls is far more significant.

The Gallup poll showed Kerry getting a negative 7 point bounce from the Demo convention. Does that strike you as correct?

I'm sure you thought that was accurate then.

[attyjackiechiles]

This poll should make conservatives nervous, pompous, obnoxious!

[exstatic]

The Gallup poll showed Kerry getting a negative 7 point bounce from the Demo convention. Does that strike you as correct?
It is what it is. If next week's poll shows a Bush bounce, I'm not going to suddenly question the Gallup methodology. Besides, there is only one poll that matters: the one where you go in and select the candidate of your choice.

[exstatic]

This poll should make conservatives nervous, pompous, obnoxious!

That seems a bit redundant.

[Marcus Bryant]

I didn't question the poll's findings that a majority thought Kerry "won" the debate because he was more articulate.

But I think it is perfectly valid to question the methodology, regardless of who is shown up or down. I didn't believe the national polls showing that Bush had a 14 point bounce or whatever from the GOP convention.

What is the media's best interest? Controversy, drama, and excitement. What better way to get that than to have Bush get an enormous bounce out of the GOP convention and then have the challenger come on strong at the end? Look at the Newsweak sample from after the GOP convention (40% GOP, 30% Demo) showing Bush up big. Then look at the Newsweak sample after the debate (GOP 34%, Demo 37%) with a portion of the sample excluding the South and conducted on a Friday night when undoubtedly a lot of men were not at home sitting by the phone. Hence the absurd result that had Kerry up over Bush among men 47% to 45%. Not even Bob Dull did that poorly among men in 1996.

Again, if the state polls showed a marked change over the next week then I will believe this race has indeed changed. Until then it looks like a rather transparent effort on the part of the Beltway media to change this race.


This poll should make conservatives nervous, pompous, obnoxious!

Much more descriptive of the Left, to say the least.

[CommanderMcBragg]

Much more descriptive of the Left, to say the least.

Pompous indeed!

[Yonivore]

This poll should make conservatives nervous, pompous, obnoxious!
How does one or, in this case, how does a poll make someone "pompous" or "obnoxious?"