Ed Helicopter Jones
04-20-2006, 06:01 PM
Those numbers represent each team's respective won-loss records over the last 36 games of the season. Extrapolate that over a full 82 games and the Kings would have won 57 games and been the 2 seed in the West. The Spurs can't look past this team or they could be in trouble.
My thoughts on the Kings:
Mike Bibby: He's got a size advantage on Parker and can hit the big shots. When he gets hot he's hard to stop. His weakness is that when he's cold, he can be downright icy but he'll continue to fire away. Weakness 2: He can't keep up with Parker.
Bonzi Wells: Another one of those guys that can heat it up in a hurry. He's a great rebounder, and can play an overall complete game when he wants to. One of those guys with amazing talent who tends to play beneath his abilities most of the time. In fact, he's played so far beneath his talent that you almost forget he's on the Kings roster this year. Guys like that can be scary in a short playoff series if they suddenly decide to flip the switch, play like they can, and screw up an otherwise solid defensive game plan. If I'm Pop I put Bowen on him just long enough to frustrate him into a bad start.
Brad Miller: Not a great rebounder or defender, but can dig deep and do both when he needs to. The Kings tend to win when he's having a big night, and he's hit more than his share of buzzer-beaters. He's far better on the offense than either Nazr or Rasho. I'd expect to see Rasho guard him early and Duncan switch to defend him late in games depending on who's on the floor for Sacramento.
Ron Artest: Artest is one of those guys that completely influences the attitude of his teammates, and since he's been in Sacramento his attitude has been to play hard and do all the little things it takes to win. The Kings have responded by being a much more hard-nosed group since his arrival. This is one of two ways in which his game is similar to Manu's. The other? He doesn't need to score in order to influence the outcome of a game. My prediction (hope) is that his ego might betray him in this series.
Shareef Abdur-Rahim: No longer on the short list of guys who've gone their entire career without a playoff appearance, Shareef might be out to prove he's belonged in the post season all these years. He can get his points against the Spurs, but his rebounding and defense are somewhat suspect.
Kenny Thomas: Kenny could be a complete bust in this series, or could change the game with his quickness and his ability to get to the offensive glass. Has never put up great numbers against the much bigger Spurs but I've never thought Rick Adelman has fully utilized KT's strengths against this team. Tim Duncan will likely guard Brad Miller or Shareef in the 4th quarters which would leave Kenny to be guarded by Nazr Mohammed and Robert Horry. Kenny although shorter, can outrebound Nazr and Horry and get by them with his speed for layups or putbacks. Horry and Nazr would have to make Kenny pay on the other end of the floor. A possible X-factor.
Kevin Martin: Second year player who's emerging as a pretty good player. Another one of those Kings players that can be really hot or really not. 37% from 3 point line. Has the size and tools to be one of those guys who causes problems for the Spurs, although that hasn't proven true in the teams' regular season meetings. Good on the home floor.
Vitaly Potapenko: Has played a total of 32 minutes since arriving in Sacramento, but expect Rick Adelman to have noted Potapenko's ability to slap six hard fouls on Duncan from last year's Sonics series.
Coach Adelman: A great offensive coach, but not a great defensive one. When the offense is clicking the Kings are a tough team to beat. Expect him to only go seven deep, with an eighth (Potapenko) to be used to whack away at Tim Duncan later in the series. He's going to play his starters big minutes, with Shareef getting the call in place of Kenny Thomas in the 4th quarter of most games.
The Chopper's prediction: The Kings are not deep enough to hang for seven games with a focused and motivated Spurs team. The Spurs will need to play their patented (yet to this point in the season largely unseen) tough brand of defense in order to frustrate the Kings into abandoning their offensive gameplan. I'd expect Pop to really try to win these games in the paint where the Spurs should have a decisive size advantage. I'd also expect him to try to harass Bibby as he brings the ball upcourt, leaving the Kings with a shorter shot clock to get into their offensive sets. When the Spurs have the Kings down expect Artest to try to take the games over, to the detriment of the Kings gameplan, and their chance at victory. I expect the Kings to get hot enough, and the Spurs to let their guard down enough, to win one, if not two games at home. Bottom line for this series: If Tim Duncan can play like Tim Duncan the Kings have no one who can stop him.
Final tally: Spurs win a hard-fought series 4-1.
My thoughts on the Kings:
Mike Bibby: He's got a size advantage on Parker and can hit the big shots. When he gets hot he's hard to stop. His weakness is that when he's cold, he can be downright icy but he'll continue to fire away. Weakness 2: He can't keep up with Parker.
Bonzi Wells: Another one of those guys that can heat it up in a hurry. He's a great rebounder, and can play an overall complete game when he wants to. One of those guys with amazing talent who tends to play beneath his abilities most of the time. In fact, he's played so far beneath his talent that you almost forget he's on the Kings roster this year. Guys like that can be scary in a short playoff series if they suddenly decide to flip the switch, play like they can, and screw up an otherwise solid defensive game plan. If I'm Pop I put Bowen on him just long enough to frustrate him into a bad start.
Brad Miller: Not a great rebounder or defender, but can dig deep and do both when he needs to. The Kings tend to win when he's having a big night, and he's hit more than his share of buzzer-beaters. He's far better on the offense than either Nazr or Rasho. I'd expect to see Rasho guard him early and Duncan switch to defend him late in games depending on who's on the floor for Sacramento.
Ron Artest: Artest is one of those guys that completely influences the attitude of his teammates, and since he's been in Sacramento his attitude has been to play hard and do all the little things it takes to win. The Kings have responded by being a much more hard-nosed group since his arrival. This is one of two ways in which his game is similar to Manu's. The other? He doesn't need to score in order to influence the outcome of a game. My prediction (hope) is that his ego might betray him in this series.
Shareef Abdur-Rahim: No longer on the short list of guys who've gone their entire career without a playoff appearance, Shareef might be out to prove he's belonged in the post season all these years. He can get his points against the Spurs, but his rebounding and defense are somewhat suspect.
Kenny Thomas: Kenny could be a complete bust in this series, or could change the game with his quickness and his ability to get to the offensive glass. Has never put up great numbers against the much bigger Spurs but I've never thought Rick Adelman has fully utilized KT's strengths against this team. Tim Duncan will likely guard Brad Miller or Shareef in the 4th quarters which would leave Kenny to be guarded by Nazr Mohammed and Robert Horry. Kenny although shorter, can outrebound Nazr and Horry and get by them with his speed for layups or putbacks. Horry and Nazr would have to make Kenny pay on the other end of the floor. A possible X-factor.
Kevin Martin: Second year player who's emerging as a pretty good player. Another one of those Kings players that can be really hot or really not. 37% from 3 point line. Has the size and tools to be one of those guys who causes problems for the Spurs, although that hasn't proven true in the teams' regular season meetings. Good on the home floor.
Vitaly Potapenko: Has played a total of 32 minutes since arriving in Sacramento, but expect Rick Adelman to have noted Potapenko's ability to slap six hard fouls on Duncan from last year's Sonics series.
Coach Adelman: A great offensive coach, but not a great defensive one. When the offense is clicking the Kings are a tough team to beat. Expect him to only go seven deep, with an eighth (Potapenko) to be used to whack away at Tim Duncan later in the series. He's going to play his starters big minutes, with Shareef getting the call in place of Kenny Thomas in the 4th quarter of most games.
The Chopper's prediction: The Kings are not deep enough to hang for seven games with a focused and motivated Spurs team. The Spurs will need to play their patented (yet to this point in the season largely unseen) tough brand of defense in order to frustrate the Kings into abandoning their offensive gameplan. I'd expect Pop to really try to win these games in the paint where the Spurs should have a decisive size advantage. I'd also expect him to try to harass Bibby as he brings the ball upcourt, leaving the Kings with a shorter shot clock to get into their offensive sets. When the Spurs have the Kings down expect Artest to try to take the games over, to the detriment of the Kings gameplan, and their chance at victory. I expect the Kings to get hot enough, and the Spurs to let their guard down enough, to win one, if not two games at home. Bottom line for this series: If Tim Duncan can play like Tim Duncan the Kings have no one who can stop him.
Final tally: Spurs win a hard-fought series 4-1.