mcornelio
04-21-2006, 09:56 AM
Spurs, Nuggets at risk for playoff upsets
Health of Duncan, Martin are among top things to watch in postseason
COMMENTARY
By Matt Guokas
NBCSports.com contributor
Updated: 9:49 a.m. ET April 21, 2006
The NBA playoffs could hold a few surprises starting as early as the first round as some of the matchups like the Spurs-Kings and Nuggets-Clippers could be determined by the health of star players.
Spurs seek clean bill of health
The West is totally up for grabs as there is not one team -- not even defending NBA champion San Antonio -- that sticks out to me as a overwhelming favorite.
San Antonio has to be concerned because it has been a tough year for Tim Duncan, who has been nagged by injuries and who has been playing hurt.
Duncan hasn't shown he's been at 100 percent, and his numbers point to that as he averaged career lows in points (18.6), rebounds (11.0), blocks (2.03), and field goal percentage (.484).
The playoffs are a long grind, and Duncan is so important to the Spurs that if he is not right physically, San Antonio is definitely in jeopardy of not getting a crack at a second straight championship.
Manu Ginobili has also battled injuries, missing 17 regular-season games. He too must stay healthy in the playoffs. If Duncan and Ginobili cannot bring their best games, the Spurs' title defense will be a flawed one.
The Spurs have been relying so much on point guard Tony Parker, who has had a fabulous regular season, but come playoff time he usually steps back a little bit, and he's not nearly as effective a player during the postseason.
When playing against Parker in a series, opponents can prepare for him and try and take certain things away from him, while also going at him from the other end of the floor and making him defend.
The top-seeded Spurs will encounter a Sacramento team that saw its season turn around after a Jan. 25 trade that sent Peja Stojakovic to the Pacers in exchange for Ron Artest. By adding Artest, the Kings got a player who helps them win games at both ends of the floor.
Upon acquiring Artest, the identity of the Kings changed. Their defense greatly improved. Sacramento went from allowing opponents 100.2 points per game before obtaining Artest to limiting teams to 94.0 points per game after his arrival.
Before Artest came to Sacramento, the Kings allowed opponents to shoot .461 from the field. After his arrival, that percentage dropped to .444.
Artest can greatly affect a game as can Mike Bibby, and Brad Miller, who is a tough guy to handle because he is a big man who can go outside and shoot the ball, pass the ball, and put it on the floor enough to create things -- and that's a weapon most teams don't have.
Historically, Sacramento has been very tough in its own building so if the Kings can steal a game in San Antonio, they become all the more dangerous. I'm not saying Sacramento is going to knock off the Spurs, but if it happened, it wouldn't shock me.
Nuggets' chances not golden
The Nuggets won the Northwest Division and so they get the third seed, but not homecourt advantage against the sixth-seeded Clippers, whose 47 wins are three more than the Nuggets totaled.
Denver struggled at the end of the season, losing its last four games, and I don't think the Nuggets get out of the first round. They are a mess right now because Kenyon Martin has been hurt for a lot of the season, and when he has played he has been inconsistent.
After dealing with a variety of leg injuries, there's obvious concern on the Nuggets part over just how much Martin can given them, especially in a matchup against Elton Brand.
Denver's Carmelo Anthony has had a fabulous year, and I expect him to play very well, but in the playoffs teams have more time to prepare for opponents, so they will be looking to take some things away from Anthony that they might not be able to do during the regular season.
In a lot of areas, the Nuggets just don't look like an effective team to me, and they could spell an early exit from the playoffs.
Miami needs Mourning
In hopes of winning an NBA title, the Heat last offseason revamped their roster around Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade, but Miami has had a hard time keeping its complimentary players healthy, especially Alonzo Mourning, whom they desperately need to backup Shaquille O'Neal.
O'Neal missed 23 games this season making Mourning's presence all the more important. But Mourning is sidelined indefinitely after suffering a torn right calf on March 22. If Mourning comes back to see action in the playoffs, I think the Heat are in good shape. But if he doesn't, Miami needs to be concerned over how to spell O'Neal and over keeping him from going down.
In addition to Mourning missing time, James Posey and Jason Williams have also been injured. I think the Heat would like to have Gary Payton and Antoine Walker coming off the bench so they are not overexposed minutes-wise, but they haven't been able to do that because they have had so many injuries.
If Williams isn't physically sound enough to handle the bulk of the work at point guard, then Payton has to play 30 to 35 minutes a game, and that's big trouble for the Heat. Williams is a solid three-point threat and has the ability to push the ball so Miami is hoping he stays healthy enough to get through the playoffs.
LeBron must turn up his defense
The Cavaliers, who get Washington in the first round, are banking on a big playoffs from LeBron James despite his recovering from a sprained left ankle. James will benefit from getting Larry Hughes back from injury since that takes a little pressure off him.
James is such a good player that even in those games where he is not shooting the ball well he still can find ways to score, get to the free throw line, and make plays for teammates.
The biggest area that he needs to pay attention to in the postseason is his defense. That's where he's been lagging, and maybe has even taken a step back from his first year in the league.
In his rookie season, James' individual defense was pretty strong at the end of games as he had a good sense that when matched against a top player he would have to shut him down.
His team defense has not moved forward. James has to by example show his teammates he understands where playoff games are won and lost -- and much of that is with team defense and getting key stops.
In the playoffs defense takes on an added premium, and James has the ability to play solid individual and team defense, but he must stay focused on doing so. When James was playing under former Cavaliers coach Paul Silas, I think Silas stayed on him pretty good about keeping up his defensive effort.
Hughes and Eric Snow understand the importance of good defense, especially in the playoffs, and they should set good examples for James to follow this postseason.
Pistons found wanting inside
If I had to pick a favorite to win the NBA title it would be the Pistons. They got off to a fabulous start this season, and this group is in its prime. They have had success, having been to the NBA Finals the last two seasons and winning one title.
They know the playoff routine well, and they know how to compensate when one or two players are not having good games. This season they have also been very fortunate in staying healthy.
But there are some things to watch in Detroit's bid for another NBA title. The Pistons have a reputation as being an outstanding defensive team, but the numbers don't bear that out.
Their field-goal percentage against has slipped, but I think it will pick up in the playoffs since they will have more attention to detail, and the games will slow down.
The thing that hurts the Pistons is they have no inside game. They try to get Rasheed Wallace to go into the post, and sometimes he does, but most times he doesn't.
Tayshaun Prince is probably their best threat in the low post, and any time they get a favorable matchup for him -- and they get it often --that's their one saving grace -- that they can go inside to Prince and he generally does some good things for them down low.
But overall Detroit doesn't score a lot of points in and around the basket. And that's a dangerous way to play because when a team doesn't go inside enough it doesn't pick up fouls and get chances at easy points from the free throw line.
The Pistons rely heavily on jump shooting from their guards and from Rasheed Wallace, and that can't fail them in the playoffs -- not if they are going to make a strong bid to once again win it all.
© 2006 NBC Sports.com
© 2006 MSNBC.com
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12408777/
Whadda You Think?
Health of Duncan, Martin are among top things to watch in postseason
COMMENTARY
By Matt Guokas
NBCSports.com contributor
Updated: 9:49 a.m. ET April 21, 2006
The NBA playoffs could hold a few surprises starting as early as the first round as some of the matchups like the Spurs-Kings and Nuggets-Clippers could be determined by the health of star players.
Spurs seek clean bill of health
The West is totally up for grabs as there is not one team -- not even defending NBA champion San Antonio -- that sticks out to me as a overwhelming favorite.
San Antonio has to be concerned because it has been a tough year for Tim Duncan, who has been nagged by injuries and who has been playing hurt.
Duncan hasn't shown he's been at 100 percent, and his numbers point to that as he averaged career lows in points (18.6), rebounds (11.0), blocks (2.03), and field goal percentage (.484).
The playoffs are a long grind, and Duncan is so important to the Spurs that if he is not right physically, San Antonio is definitely in jeopardy of not getting a crack at a second straight championship.
Manu Ginobili has also battled injuries, missing 17 regular-season games. He too must stay healthy in the playoffs. If Duncan and Ginobili cannot bring their best games, the Spurs' title defense will be a flawed one.
The Spurs have been relying so much on point guard Tony Parker, who has had a fabulous regular season, but come playoff time he usually steps back a little bit, and he's not nearly as effective a player during the postseason.
When playing against Parker in a series, opponents can prepare for him and try and take certain things away from him, while also going at him from the other end of the floor and making him defend.
The top-seeded Spurs will encounter a Sacramento team that saw its season turn around after a Jan. 25 trade that sent Peja Stojakovic to the Pacers in exchange for Ron Artest. By adding Artest, the Kings got a player who helps them win games at both ends of the floor.
Upon acquiring Artest, the identity of the Kings changed. Their defense greatly improved. Sacramento went from allowing opponents 100.2 points per game before obtaining Artest to limiting teams to 94.0 points per game after his arrival.
Before Artest came to Sacramento, the Kings allowed opponents to shoot .461 from the field. After his arrival, that percentage dropped to .444.
Artest can greatly affect a game as can Mike Bibby, and Brad Miller, who is a tough guy to handle because he is a big man who can go outside and shoot the ball, pass the ball, and put it on the floor enough to create things -- and that's a weapon most teams don't have.
Historically, Sacramento has been very tough in its own building so if the Kings can steal a game in San Antonio, they become all the more dangerous. I'm not saying Sacramento is going to knock off the Spurs, but if it happened, it wouldn't shock me.
Nuggets' chances not golden
The Nuggets won the Northwest Division and so they get the third seed, but not homecourt advantage against the sixth-seeded Clippers, whose 47 wins are three more than the Nuggets totaled.
Denver struggled at the end of the season, losing its last four games, and I don't think the Nuggets get out of the first round. They are a mess right now because Kenyon Martin has been hurt for a lot of the season, and when he has played he has been inconsistent.
After dealing with a variety of leg injuries, there's obvious concern on the Nuggets part over just how much Martin can given them, especially in a matchup against Elton Brand.
Denver's Carmelo Anthony has had a fabulous year, and I expect him to play very well, but in the playoffs teams have more time to prepare for opponents, so they will be looking to take some things away from Anthony that they might not be able to do during the regular season.
In a lot of areas, the Nuggets just don't look like an effective team to me, and they could spell an early exit from the playoffs.
Miami needs Mourning
In hopes of winning an NBA title, the Heat last offseason revamped their roster around Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade, but Miami has had a hard time keeping its complimentary players healthy, especially Alonzo Mourning, whom they desperately need to backup Shaquille O'Neal.
O'Neal missed 23 games this season making Mourning's presence all the more important. But Mourning is sidelined indefinitely after suffering a torn right calf on March 22. If Mourning comes back to see action in the playoffs, I think the Heat are in good shape. But if he doesn't, Miami needs to be concerned over how to spell O'Neal and over keeping him from going down.
In addition to Mourning missing time, James Posey and Jason Williams have also been injured. I think the Heat would like to have Gary Payton and Antoine Walker coming off the bench so they are not overexposed minutes-wise, but they haven't been able to do that because they have had so many injuries.
If Williams isn't physically sound enough to handle the bulk of the work at point guard, then Payton has to play 30 to 35 minutes a game, and that's big trouble for the Heat. Williams is a solid three-point threat and has the ability to push the ball so Miami is hoping he stays healthy enough to get through the playoffs.
LeBron must turn up his defense
The Cavaliers, who get Washington in the first round, are banking on a big playoffs from LeBron James despite his recovering from a sprained left ankle. James will benefit from getting Larry Hughes back from injury since that takes a little pressure off him.
James is such a good player that even in those games where he is not shooting the ball well he still can find ways to score, get to the free throw line, and make plays for teammates.
The biggest area that he needs to pay attention to in the postseason is his defense. That's where he's been lagging, and maybe has even taken a step back from his first year in the league.
In his rookie season, James' individual defense was pretty strong at the end of games as he had a good sense that when matched against a top player he would have to shut him down.
His team defense has not moved forward. James has to by example show his teammates he understands where playoff games are won and lost -- and much of that is with team defense and getting key stops.
In the playoffs defense takes on an added premium, and James has the ability to play solid individual and team defense, but he must stay focused on doing so. When James was playing under former Cavaliers coach Paul Silas, I think Silas stayed on him pretty good about keeping up his defensive effort.
Hughes and Eric Snow understand the importance of good defense, especially in the playoffs, and they should set good examples for James to follow this postseason.
Pistons found wanting inside
If I had to pick a favorite to win the NBA title it would be the Pistons. They got off to a fabulous start this season, and this group is in its prime. They have had success, having been to the NBA Finals the last two seasons and winning one title.
They know the playoff routine well, and they know how to compensate when one or two players are not having good games. This season they have also been very fortunate in staying healthy.
But there are some things to watch in Detroit's bid for another NBA title. The Pistons have a reputation as being an outstanding defensive team, but the numbers don't bear that out.
Their field-goal percentage against has slipped, but I think it will pick up in the playoffs since they will have more attention to detail, and the games will slow down.
The thing that hurts the Pistons is they have no inside game. They try to get Rasheed Wallace to go into the post, and sometimes he does, but most times he doesn't.
Tayshaun Prince is probably their best threat in the low post, and any time they get a favorable matchup for him -- and they get it often --that's their one saving grace -- that they can go inside to Prince and he generally does some good things for them down low.
But overall Detroit doesn't score a lot of points in and around the basket. And that's a dangerous way to play because when a team doesn't go inside enough it doesn't pick up fouls and get chances at easy points from the free throw line.
The Pistons rely heavily on jump shooting from their guards and from Rasheed Wallace, and that can't fail them in the playoffs -- not if they are going to make a strong bid to once again win it all.
© 2006 NBC Sports.com
© 2006 MSNBC.com
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12408777/
Whadda You Think?