Jimcs50
04-21-2006, 10:16 PM
By David DuPree, USA TODAY
San Antonio Spurs (1) vs. Sacramento Kings (8)
Season series: Spurs won 2-1.
Best matchup:Tony Parker vs. Mike Bibby. Parker gets into the paint as well as any point guard and is shooting 54.8% from the field, and Bibby averaged a career-high 21.1 points.
Big numbers: The Spurs were an NBA-best 10-2 in games decided by three or fewer points and had the best road record in the league, 29-12. The Kings were 18-22 before Ron Artest came and 26-14 with him.
Deciding factor: San Antonio's experience, depth and defense will wear the Kings down.
Difference-maker:Tim Duncan. His scoring may have been a career-low 18.6, but his influence is still dominating.
Who wins and why: The Spurs in five games. They're healthier than at any time this season.
*****
Dallas Mavericks (4) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (5)
Season series: Mavericks won 3-1.
Best matchup:Dirk Nowitzki vs. Pau Gasol. The power forwards set the tone for their respective teams. Gasol is more inside-oriented than the jump-shooting Nowitzki.
Big numbers: Mavericks' 34-7 home record was second in the league, but they were next to last in assists. The Grizzlies held opponents to a league-low 88.5 points a game, and Gasol was the only player in the league to average at least 4.5 assists and 1.5 blocked shots.
Deciding factor: The Mavericks' bench could be the best in the NBA, and their defense can be stifling.
Difference-maker:Josh Howard is the Mavericks' wild card. He does everything at both ends.
Who wins and why: The Mavericks in six games. The Grizzlies can play a little defense, too, but Dallas has too many offensive weapons.
*****
Denver Nuggets (3) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (6)
Season series: Clippers won 3-1.
Best matchup:Andre Miller vs. Sam Cassell. Cassell can still control a game as well as any point guard, and Miller can score big when he has to.
Big numbers: The Nuggets forced 16.1 turnovers a game, third in the league, and have a league-high six players averaging 12 or more points. The Clippers were the worst team in the league at forcing turnovers, only 12.8 a game, but were No. 1 in blocked shots with 6.13 a game.
Deciding factor: The Clippers' rebounding strength will wear the Nuggets down.
Difference-maker: Elton Brand could be the most consistent player in the NBA. He never has a bad game, doesn't force things and leads by example.
Who wins and why: The Clippers in seven games. The home court means a lot, and Los Angeles has it.
*****
Phoenix Suns (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)
Season series: Suns won 3-1.
Best matchup:Shawn Marion vs. Lamar Odom. The power forwards with the finesse games are expected to do everything at both ends and usually deliver big.
Big numbers: Phoenix not only led the league in scoring but in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and three-point percentage as well, but was 0-7 in games decided by three or fewer points. Point guard Smush Parker was the only Laker to start every game, and Bryant made 8.7 free throws a game, the most of anyone in the playoffs.
Deciding factor: The Lakers will swarm Steve Nash and try to control the tempo and not give the Suns those uncontested three-pointers.
Difference-maker:Kobe Bryant averaged 40.5 points in the four regular-season games against the Suns and could go for more now.
Who wins and why: The Lakers in six games. The Suns don't have much of an inside game, and the Lakers' Kwame Brown is finally playing to his potential.
******
Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (8)
Season series: Pistons won 3-1.
Best matchup: Richard Hamilton vs. Michael Redd. Two of the league's best pure shooters move without the ball but can also get their shots off the dribble and will try to run each other into screens all series long.
Big numbers: The Pistons committed a league-low 11.4 turnovers a game and had the best home record (37-4) and the second-best road record (27-14). Milwaukee's Andrew Bogut led all rookies in rebounding (7.0), field-goal percentage (53.3) and blocked shots (0.83).
Deciding factor: Rasheed Wallace and Ben Wallace are matchup nightmares and should control the paint, making everything the Bucks get hard to come by.
Difference-maker:Chauncey Billups manages the game at both ends better than any other point guard in the NBA — and makes more big shots, too.
Who wins and why: The Pistons in four games. It's all business now, and they have a point to prove.
*****
Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Washington Wizards (5)
Season series: Wizards won 3-1.
Best matchup:LeBron James vs. Caron Butler. James might be the best player in the entire league and is primed for his first playoff appearance, but Butler is a tough, clever defender and a major scoring threat who won't be intimidated.
Big numbers: The Cavaliers were 5-0 in overtime games and were the only team with at least four players averaging more than six rebounds (LeBron James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden and Donyell Marshall). The Wizards were the highest-scoring team in the East (101.7) and made more free throws than any other team, 23.0 a game.
Deciding factor: If Brendan Haywood can hold his own against Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and the Wizards don't give Damon Jones and Marshall open three-point shots, the Cavaliers will sputter.
Difference-maker:Gilbert Arenas can take over a game in a LeBron James sort of way and is a matchup nightmare.
Who wins and why: The Wizards in six games. They have confidence from having won the season series, and their offense is so explosive and Cleveland's defense very suspect.
*****
New Jersey Nets (3) vs. Indiana Pacers (6)
Season series: Pacers won 2-1.
Best matchup:Richard Jefferson vs. Peja Stojakovic. Jefferson will run, run, run and dare Stojakovic to keep up while Stojakovic has one of the quickest releases around.
Big numbers: The Nets were 27th in field-goal percentage (44.0) and 28th in three-point percentage (33.0). Twelve players started at least 15 games for the injury-plagued Pacers, and Stephen Jackson (81) and Anthony Johnson (53) were the only players to start in at least 50 games.
Deciding factor:Jason Kidd can still control the tempo of the game at both ends of the floor and leads the league in triple-doubles.
Difference-maker:Vince Carter, who has often struggled in the postseason, is playing better than ever and his teammates feed off him.
Who wins and why: The Nets in six games. Their big three of Kidd, Jefferson and Carter is too much, and Clifford Robinson off the bench always has something up his sleeve.
*****
Miami Heat (2) vs. Chicago Bulls (7)
Season series: Heat won 2-1.
Best matchup:Dwyane Wade vs. Ben Gordon. Gordon is streak-shooting, three-point bombing scoring machine, but Wade is more polished and versatile.
Big numbers:Shaquille O'Neal averaged career-lows of 20.0 points and 9.2 rebounds, but he won his seventh field goal percentage title (60.0). The Bulls held opponents to a league-low 42.6% shooting, and they take a league-high six-game winning streak into the playoffs.
Deciding factor: A title-hungry O'Neal, on a mission to show he can still dominate in the postseason, will dominate the Bulls' thin frontcourt.
Difference-maker: Antoine Walker. If his shot is on, the Heat usually have an easy time because he stretches opponents' defenses.
Who wins and why: The Heat in five games. Wade and O'Neal complement each other so well, and if Alonzo Mourning can be effective (calf injury), the Bulls will be looking over their shoulders all series long.
San Antonio Spurs (1) vs. Sacramento Kings (8)
Season series: Spurs won 2-1.
Best matchup:Tony Parker vs. Mike Bibby. Parker gets into the paint as well as any point guard and is shooting 54.8% from the field, and Bibby averaged a career-high 21.1 points.
Big numbers: The Spurs were an NBA-best 10-2 in games decided by three or fewer points and had the best road record in the league, 29-12. The Kings were 18-22 before Ron Artest came and 26-14 with him.
Deciding factor: San Antonio's experience, depth and defense will wear the Kings down.
Difference-maker:Tim Duncan. His scoring may have been a career-low 18.6, but his influence is still dominating.
Who wins and why: The Spurs in five games. They're healthier than at any time this season.
*****
Dallas Mavericks (4) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (5)
Season series: Mavericks won 3-1.
Best matchup:Dirk Nowitzki vs. Pau Gasol. The power forwards set the tone for their respective teams. Gasol is more inside-oriented than the jump-shooting Nowitzki.
Big numbers: Mavericks' 34-7 home record was second in the league, but they were next to last in assists. The Grizzlies held opponents to a league-low 88.5 points a game, and Gasol was the only player in the league to average at least 4.5 assists and 1.5 blocked shots.
Deciding factor: The Mavericks' bench could be the best in the NBA, and their defense can be stifling.
Difference-maker:Josh Howard is the Mavericks' wild card. He does everything at both ends.
Who wins and why: The Mavericks in six games. The Grizzlies can play a little defense, too, but Dallas has too many offensive weapons.
*****
Denver Nuggets (3) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (6)
Season series: Clippers won 3-1.
Best matchup:Andre Miller vs. Sam Cassell. Cassell can still control a game as well as any point guard, and Miller can score big when he has to.
Big numbers: The Nuggets forced 16.1 turnovers a game, third in the league, and have a league-high six players averaging 12 or more points. The Clippers were the worst team in the league at forcing turnovers, only 12.8 a game, but were No. 1 in blocked shots with 6.13 a game.
Deciding factor: The Clippers' rebounding strength will wear the Nuggets down.
Difference-maker: Elton Brand could be the most consistent player in the NBA. He never has a bad game, doesn't force things and leads by example.
Who wins and why: The Clippers in seven games. The home court means a lot, and Los Angeles has it.
*****
Phoenix Suns (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)
Season series: Suns won 3-1.
Best matchup:Shawn Marion vs. Lamar Odom. The power forwards with the finesse games are expected to do everything at both ends and usually deliver big.
Big numbers: Phoenix not only led the league in scoring but in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and three-point percentage as well, but was 0-7 in games decided by three or fewer points. Point guard Smush Parker was the only Laker to start every game, and Bryant made 8.7 free throws a game, the most of anyone in the playoffs.
Deciding factor: The Lakers will swarm Steve Nash and try to control the tempo and not give the Suns those uncontested three-pointers.
Difference-maker:Kobe Bryant averaged 40.5 points in the four regular-season games against the Suns and could go for more now.
Who wins and why: The Lakers in six games. The Suns don't have much of an inside game, and the Lakers' Kwame Brown is finally playing to his potential.
******
Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (8)
Season series: Pistons won 3-1.
Best matchup: Richard Hamilton vs. Michael Redd. Two of the league's best pure shooters move without the ball but can also get their shots off the dribble and will try to run each other into screens all series long.
Big numbers: The Pistons committed a league-low 11.4 turnovers a game and had the best home record (37-4) and the second-best road record (27-14). Milwaukee's Andrew Bogut led all rookies in rebounding (7.0), field-goal percentage (53.3) and blocked shots (0.83).
Deciding factor: Rasheed Wallace and Ben Wallace are matchup nightmares and should control the paint, making everything the Bucks get hard to come by.
Difference-maker:Chauncey Billups manages the game at both ends better than any other point guard in the NBA — and makes more big shots, too.
Who wins and why: The Pistons in four games. It's all business now, and they have a point to prove.
*****
Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Washington Wizards (5)
Season series: Wizards won 3-1.
Best matchup:LeBron James vs. Caron Butler. James might be the best player in the entire league and is primed for his first playoff appearance, but Butler is a tough, clever defender and a major scoring threat who won't be intimidated.
Big numbers: The Cavaliers were 5-0 in overtime games and were the only team with at least four players averaging more than six rebounds (LeBron James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden and Donyell Marshall). The Wizards were the highest-scoring team in the East (101.7) and made more free throws than any other team, 23.0 a game.
Deciding factor: If Brendan Haywood can hold his own against Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and the Wizards don't give Damon Jones and Marshall open three-point shots, the Cavaliers will sputter.
Difference-maker:Gilbert Arenas can take over a game in a LeBron James sort of way and is a matchup nightmare.
Who wins and why: The Wizards in six games. They have confidence from having won the season series, and their offense is so explosive and Cleveland's defense very suspect.
*****
New Jersey Nets (3) vs. Indiana Pacers (6)
Season series: Pacers won 2-1.
Best matchup:Richard Jefferson vs. Peja Stojakovic. Jefferson will run, run, run and dare Stojakovic to keep up while Stojakovic has one of the quickest releases around.
Big numbers: The Nets were 27th in field-goal percentage (44.0) and 28th in three-point percentage (33.0). Twelve players started at least 15 games for the injury-plagued Pacers, and Stephen Jackson (81) and Anthony Johnson (53) were the only players to start in at least 50 games.
Deciding factor:Jason Kidd can still control the tempo of the game at both ends of the floor and leads the league in triple-doubles.
Difference-maker:Vince Carter, who has often struggled in the postseason, is playing better than ever and his teammates feed off him.
Who wins and why: The Nets in six games. Their big three of Kidd, Jefferson and Carter is too much, and Clifford Robinson off the bench always has something up his sleeve.
*****
Miami Heat (2) vs. Chicago Bulls (7)
Season series: Heat won 2-1.
Best matchup:Dwyane Wade vs. Ben Gordon. Gordon is streak-shooting, three-point bombing scoring machine, but Wade is more polished and versatile.
Big numbers:Shaquille O'Neal averaged career-lows of 20.0 points and 9.2 rebounds, but he won his seventh field goal percentage title (60.0). The Bulls held opponents to a league-low 42.6% shooting, and they take a league-high six-game winning streak into the playoffs.
Deciding factor: A title-hungry O'Neal, on a mission to show he can still dominate in the postseason, will dominate the Bulls' thin frontcourt.
Difference-maker: Antoine Walker. If his shot is on, the Heat usually have an easy time because he stretches opponents' defenses.
Who wins and why: The Heat in five games. Wade and O'Neal complement each other so well, and if Alonzo Mourning can be effective (calf injury), the Bulls will be looking over their shoulders all series long.