boutons_
04-22-2006, 03:29 PM
NBA Postseason Is a Favorite Time of the Year
By Michael Wilbon
Saturday, April 22, 2006; E01
There's no George Mason in pro basketball. Nobody is going to come swooping in out of the blue to win the NBA championship or even get to the Finals. There are no Cinderellas. One-man teams and playoff newcomers won't be around long, so forget about Kobe and LeBron beyond the second round, if that. The No. 8 seeds in these playoffs -- Milwaukee and Sacramento -- have less chance of advancing than a No. 16 seed in the NCAA tournament.
That doesn't mean there won't be suspense, just not that wild, how-could-that-happen kind of result. Seven-game series are designed to reward the best team, not the best story, not the sentimental pick. The one-and-only Charles Barkley says this field is as wide open as he's seen in years -- other than at the top, where Detroit and San Antonio look like absolute certainties to reach the NBA Finals for the second consecutive season.
Miami, New Jersey and Dallas are long shots, but it's possible they could reach the Finals. Anybody else would be a true stunner, even division winners such as Phoenix and Denver.
Ron Artest can talk all he wants about leading Sacramento past defending champion San Antonio in a first-round matchup out west, but it's unlikely Artest will lead the Kings to more than one victory in that series. Milwaukee has even less chance to take a game from Detroit in the first round.
If you're looking for entertaining series, which is to say close games featuring great players, it's Mavericks vs. Grizzlies, Suns vs. Lakers, Nuggets vs. Clippers and Cavaliers vs. Wizards that you want.
The trendy pick is to take Kobe Bryant over the Phoenix Suns. Kobe, folks point out, averaged 40.5 points per game against the Suns in the regular season. The Suns don't have anybody who can even challenge Kobe, it's true. But the Lakers don't have anybody to challenge Steve Nash and Shawn Marion and Raja Bell and Boris Diaw and Eddie House and Leandro Barbosa, either. Kobe might very well average 46, 47 points per game in this series, and it still doesn't mean the Lakers will win more than two games. If Phil Jackson sends Kobe out to guard Nash, the Suns will be prepared to simply let Diaw help run the offense. As great as Kobe and Jackson are, let's not forget they led the Lakers to seventh place in the West, not second, not even fifth. They'll regret having to rely on Kwame Brown, even though the Suns have nobody of consequence within five inches and 40 pounds of him.
While the other team in L.A., the Clippers, appears quite happy to have avoided the Mavericks in the first round, the Grizzlies seem just fine with playing Dallas. Yes, Dallas had the third-best record in the league this season, but the Grizzlies have Pau Gasol, Mike Miller and a defender in Shane Battier who is willing to go out and do the dirty work against Dirk Nowitzki. This could be a long, torturous series for Dallas.
The Clippers asked for the Nuggets in the first round, and better be careful now that they've got Denver. Elton Brand is making his playoff debut, and the Clippers have one of the great if unsung playoff performers of this generation in Sam Cassell. But the Nuggets have a truly clutch player in Carmelo Anthony, which matters at this time of year.
The Spurs, Suns, Mavericks and Nuggets will advance in the Western Conference.
The Suns will beat the Nuggets (or Clippers for that matter) but lose to the Spurs in the conference finals. The only thing that can derail the Spurs would be if Tim Duncan's injured foot forces him to the sideline.
In the East, the Pistons, Heat, Nets and Wizards will advance.
Just about the only people picking the Wizards are writers in Washington, which either means we're "homers" or the folks adoring LeBron James are ignoring just how much playoff experience matters. Neither team is going to play anything approaching playoff defense, which is why LeBron will average close to a triple-double and Gilbert Arenas will average 35, 36 points per game in the series. If the Wizards can figure out a way to steal a game on the road either today or Tuesday, Washington will win.
The Wizards, subsequently, have no chance against the Pistons in the second round, even if they did sweep Detroit, 3-0, in the regular season. Detroit has too much size, too much toughness and too much experience in big games to lose to a Wizards team that is far too light in the defense and toughness areas.
The best series of the entire Eastern Conference playoffs likely will be Miami vs. New Jersey in the second round. Shaq and Pat Riley used to be synonymous with playoff magic. But it's been a long time (12 years) since Riley got a sniff of the Finals, and the slim-jim Shaq is trying to prove that at 34 he's not done. They'll have perhaps more than they can handle in the Nets. Vince Carter is particularly dangerous when he can score and leave the heavy lifting to Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson. Plus, the Nets have something -- okay, just a little something -- for Shaq in 7-footers Nenad Krstic and Jason Collins. If Miami goes out in the second round (to the Nets) there should be no end to the criticism heaped on Riley for so radically changing last year's team (which came one possession and one fluke injury to Dwyane Wade from making it to the NBA Finals) and dumping the coach (Stan Van Gundy).
With Miami not as good as last year and Dallas still needing an all-court helper for Nowitzki, we'll be left once again with Spurs vs. Pistons, perhaps a very un-sexy championship for the second straight season but a Finals series with the two most worthy challengers for the crown.
The Spurs will remain the best out West because Tony Parker has had a wondrous season. Problem for the champs is, Duncan and Manu Ginobili have been hobbled and less than their best all season. Ginobili missed 17 games and Duncan, for the first time in his nine-year career, has averaged less than 20 points for the season. He's been just a bit off form, winding up with his lowest shooting percentage and lowest rebounding average. It's fractions we're talking about, but it adds up, especially when the Pistons are better now than last year, and may be better than when they beat the Lakers to win the 2004 NBA championship.
The Pistons are obsessed with winning this time without Larry Brown, with winning a second time to show the first one wasn't all about the Lakers' dysfunction. The Pistons of Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton, Ben and Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince and new coach Flip Saunders have been the best team in the NBA since the first of November, and assuming reasonably good health, they're going to sip the champagne in the middle of June, too.
© 2006 The Washington Post Company
By Michael Wilbon
Saturday, April 22, 2006; E01
There's no George Mason in pro basketball. Nobody is going to come swooping in out of the blue to win the NBA championship or even get to the Finals. There are no Cinderellas. One-man teams and playoff newcomers won't be around long, so forget about Kobe and LeBron beyond the second round, if that. The No. 8 seeds in these playoffs -- Milwaukee and Sacramento -- have less chance of advancing than a No. 16 seed in the NCAA tournament.
That doesn't mean there won't be suspense, just not that wild, how-could-that-happen kind of result. Seven-game series are designed to reward the best team, not the best story, not the sentimental pick. The one-and-only Charles Barkley says this field is as wide open as he's seen in years -- other than at the top, where Detroit and San Antonio look like absolute certainties to reach the NBA Finals for the second consecutive season.
Miami, New Jersey and Dallas are long shots, but it's possible they could reach the Finals. Anybody else would be a true stunner, even division winners such as Phoenix and Denver.
Ron Artest can talk all he wants about leading Sacramento past defending champion San Antonio in a first-round matchup out west, but it's unlikely Artest will lead the Kings to more than one victory in that series. Milwaukee has even less chance to take a game from Detroit in the first round.
If you're looking for entertaining series, which is to say close games featuring great players, it's Mavericks vs. Grizzlies, Suns vs. Lakers, Nuggets vs. Clippers and Cavaliers vs. Wizards that you want.
The trendy pick is to take Kobe Bryant over the Phoenix Suns. Kobe, folks point out, averaged 40.5 points per game against the Suns in the regular season. The Suns don't have anybody who can even challenge Kobe, it's true. But the Lakers don't have anybody to challenge Steve Nash and Shawn Marion and Raja Bell and Boris Diaw and Eddie House and Leandro Barbosa, either. Kobe might very well average 46, 47 points per game in this series, and it still doesn't mean the Lakers will win more than two games. If Phil Jackson sends Kobe out to guard Nash, the Suns will be prepared to simply let Diaw help run the offense. As great as Kobe and Jackson are, let's not forget they led the Lakers to seventh place in the West, not second, not even fifth. They'll regret having to rely on Kwame Brown, even though the Suns have nobody of consequence within five inches and 40 pounds of him.
While the other team in L.A., the Clippers, appears quite happy to have avoided the Mavericks in the first round, the Grizzlies seem just fine with playing Dallas. Yes, Dallas had the third-best record in the league this season, but the Grizzlies have Pau Gasol, Mike Miller and a defender in Shane Battier who is willing to go out and do the dirty work against Dirk Nowitzki. This could be a long, torturous series for Dallas.
The Clippers asked for the Nuggets in the first round, and better be careful now that they've got Denver. Elton Brand is making his playoff debut, and the Clippers have one of the great if unsung playoff performers of this generation in Sam Cassell. But the Nuggets have a truly clutch player in Carmelo Anthony, which matters at this time of year.
The Spurs, Suns, Mavericks and Nuggets will advance in the Western Conference.
The Suns will beat the Nuggets (or Clippers for that matter) but lose to the Spurs in the conference finals. The only thing that can derail the Spurs would be if Tim Duncan's injured foot forces him to the sideline.
In the East, the Pistons, Heat, Nets and Wizards will advance.
Just about the only people picking the Wizards are writers in Washington, which either means we're "homers" or the folks adoring LeBron James are ignoring just how much playoff experience matters. Neither team is going to play anything approaching playoff defense, which is why LeBron will average close to a triple-double and Gilbert Arenas will average 35, 36 points per game in the series. If the Wizards can figure out a way to steal a game on the road either today or Tuesday, Washington will win.
The Wizards, subsequently, have no chance against the Pistons in the second round, even if they did sweep Detroit, 3-0, in the regular season. Detroit has too much size, too much toughness and too much experience in big games to lose to a Wizards team that is far too light in the defense and toughness areas.
The best series of the entire Eastern Conference playoffs likely will be Miami vs. New Jersey in the second round. Shaq and Pat Riley used to be synonymous with playoff magic. But it's been a long time (12 years) since Riley got a sniff of the Finals, and the slim-jim Shaq is trying to prove that at 34 he's not done. They'll have perhaps more than they can handle in the Nets. Vince Carter is particularly dangerous when he can score and leave the heavy lifting to Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson. Plus, the Nets have something -- okay, just a little something -- for Shaq in 7-footers Nenad Krstic and Jason Collins. If Miami goes out in the second round (to the Nets) there should be no end to the criticism heaped on Riley for so radically changing last year's team (which came one possession and one fluke injury to Dwyane Wade from making it to the NBA Finals) and dumping the coach (Stan Van Gundy).
With Miami not as good as last year and Dallas still needing an all-court helper for Nowitzki, we'll be left once again with Spurs vs. Pistons, perhaps a very un-sexy championship for the second straight season but a Finals series with the two most worthy challengers for the crown.
The Spurs will remain the best out West because Tony Parker has had a wondrous season. Problem for the champs is, Duncan and Manu Ginobili have been hobbled and less than their best all season. Ginobili missed 17 games and Duncan, for the first time in his nine-year career, has averaged less than 20 points for the season. He's been just a bit off form, winding up with his lowest shooting percentage and lowest rebounding average. It's fractions we're talking about, but it adds up, especially when the Pistons are better now than last year, and may be better than when they beat the Lakers to win the 2004 NBA championship.
The Pistons are obsessed with winning this time without Larry Brown, with winning a second time to show the first one wasn't all about the Lakers' dysfunction. The Pistons of Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton, Ben and Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince and new coach Flip Saunders have been the best team in the NBA since the first of November, and assuming reasonably good health, they're going to sip the champagne in the middle of June, too.
© 2006 The Washington Post Company