Amuseddaysleeper
04-27-2006, 05:04 PM
Here you guys go!
Dirk and Prince are hot; LeBron and Bibby are notBy John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Archive
Man, it's tough being an underdog in the NBA playoffs, huh? Through 16 first-round games, the underdogs are a rousing 3-13, and a lot of the losses haven't been close. Half of the first set of games ended with the home team winning by double figures.
But while many of the first-round series aren't providing much in the way of excitement (Lakers-Suns being a glorious exception), we still have the game within the game to discuss.
One of the great things about the opening week of the playoffs is figuring out which guys have brought their A Game for the postseason and which ones failed to dial it up.
Yes, we're working with small samples, but sometimes they can be telling. A number of players have, over the course of their careers, consistently outperformed their regular-season numbers in the playoffs (once you adjust for the slower pace, increased competition, etc.), while an equal number have taken their games in the opposite direction come April. Reggie Miller and Robert Horry would be obvious examples of the former group, while Damon Stoudamire and Clifford Robinson fall in the latter group.
So which players have come out strong this year, and which ones are lagging behind? It's time to answer that today with a playoff edition of who's hot and who's not. The computer printouts please:
HOT: Lamar Odom (PER 20.49). We've all focused on Kobe Bryant in the first two games of the Lakers-Suns series, and deservedly so, but all that attention has distracted us from the brilliant play of Odom -- the highest-rated Laker through two games. Let's face it, the Lakers are a much more effective team when Odom is active and involved, and in the first two games of the Phoenix series he's been as active and involved as he has all season.
Odom had back-to-back 20-point games for only the fourth time this season as L.A. earned a split in Phoenix, and he did it while shooting 63 percent and pulling down 21 boards in the two games. Not to mention, he made the signature play of Game 2 -- diving on a loose ball and passing it to Kobe for a momentum-swinging dunk and foul (I know, I know, the foul call was bogus) to secure a Laker win.
NOT: Shawn Marion (PER 13.40). Arguably the Suns' best player in the regular season, Marion has inarguably not been himself in the first two playoff games. Credit Odom with some of that, because Lamar has been diligent about racing back on D and taking away Marion's easy transition hoops. But the Matrix has been out of sorts in the halfcourt too, yanking down only 16 rebounds in the first two games after averaging 11.8 in the regular season, and struggling to a 43.3 percent mark from the floor. As the series shifts to L.A., Mike D'Antoni's biggest challenge will be figuring out how to swing the Odom-Marion matchup back in Phoenix's favor.
HOT: Tony Parker (PER 27.19). Most lists with "Tony Parker" and "hot" in them involve a certain Desperate Housewife, but not this one. Parker has been hot enough on his own, ripping the Kings for 47 points in the first two playoff games to put San Antonio up 2-0. It's particularly encouraging for the Spurs since Parker's past few playoffs have been shaky at best -- in fact, it was one of the reasons the club went after Nick Van Exel in the offseason. With Tim Duncan still subpar thanks to his ongoing bout with plantar fasciitis, this is the postseason when Parker has to step up. So far, so good.
NOT: Mike Bibby (PER 11.74) and Brad Miller (PER 2.87). Sacramento's role players played out of their minds in Game 2, as Bonzi Wells, Kevin Martin and Shareef Abdur-Rahim combined for 81 points and 29 rebounds. But the Kings still lost because their two best players in uniform -- Ron Artest was serving his one-game suspension -- failed to show up. Bibby shot 3-for-16 with five turnovers on Monday, while Miller went 2-for-8 for the second straight game. He now has 11 points and four rebounds for the series.
Here's the kicker: They were even worse on defense than on offense. Brent Barry (22 points) repeatedly beat Bibby on simple curls and dribble drives, culminating in the game-tying 3-pointer at the end of regulation. And, of course, he was only assigned to Barry because Rick Adelman dared not put him on Parker after the beating Bibby took in Game 1. Actually, this is nothing new. Bibby hasn't played defense in about five years, and I don't know why he gets a free pass on this.
As for Miller, I'm a huge fan of his, but the guy has been completely AWOL on defense. His "help" defense against Parker's drives to the basket in the first two games largely consisted of helping to inbound the ball after it fell through the net. In fact, if I'm Nazr Mohammed, I'm wondering if Miller can do for me what he did for Jerome James a year ago.
HOT: Guys from Argentina: Two of the best players in the postseason thus far have come from south of the equator. Despite his Bulls being down 0-2, Andres Nocioni (PER 22.33) has been absolutely brilliant for Chicago. He knocked down 13-of-15 from the floor in Chicago's Game 2 defeat, and that came on the heels of an 18-point, 16-rebound performance in Game 1. His overall numbers are 24 points, 11 boards and 60 percnet shooting, and if he keeps that up the Bulls should get off the schneid in Chicago.
But "Red Bull" hasn't even been the best Argentinian. That honor goes to Manu Ginobili (PER 26.61). After an indifferent regular season when he was hampered by injuries, the Spurs' swingman reasserted himself in Game 2 against Sacramento. Not only were his 32 points a season-high, but he pulled it off in only 35 minutes of action. And stylistically, it marked the return of El Contusion to last year's playoff form. He repeatedly beat defenders with his lefty drives and then slammed himself into opponents to draw fouls, earning 12 free-throw attempts. Plus, he took the time to hand out nine assists and didn't have a single turnover.
NOT: Guys from Cincinnati: It's not a great time to be a Bearcat. First Cincy dumps Bob Huggins, then Jessica Simpson dumps Nick Lachey (a noted Bearcats fan), and now George Karl dumps Kenyon Martin. The Nuggets coach discounted K-Mart after he was limited all season by knee problems (he had microfracture surgery in the offseason), upsetting Martin to the point that he yanked himself from Game 2 against the Clippers and earned a suspension for at least the next two games.
Martin hasn't been the only disappointing Cat. Two of his Nuggets' teammates, DerMarr Johnson (PER 2.75) and Ruben Patterson (PER 0.77), attended the same school, and between them they have eight points so far in the playoffs. Another Bearcat, Nick Van Exel (PER 8.95), missed all five of his shots in Game 2 for San Antonio and is at 23.1 percent for the playoffs, redeeming himself only with a perfectly placed towel toss on the top of Jalen Rose's head while the Knicks' forward was moonlighting as a sideline reporter for TNT. And poor Jason Maxiell hasn't even left the bench yet for Detroit.
HOT: Tayshaun Prince (PER 21.40). If you haven't watched much of the Pistons-Bucks demolition, I can't say I blame you. But here's the salient fact from that series: Prince is killing Bobby Simmons (PER 8.46). Maybe he's mad that Bobby got more money this summer, or maybe he just has better help. All I know is Tayshaun's numbers in the first two games are 18.5 points, 7.5 boards and 53.9 percent shooting, while Bobby has 16 points combined and hasn't taken a foul shot. There's plenty of blame to go around for the Milwaukee side, but if Simmons doesn't at least play Prince to a draw in his first-ever postseason series then the Bucks truly have no chance.
NOT: Memphis' supporting cast. The Grizzlies opened the playoffs with two lackluster efforts, and the pundits are throwing darts at Pau Gasol. That comes with the turf because he's Memphis's star player, but actually he's been great -- his 20.0 points and 4.5 assists are right in line with what he did all season (as is his 22.71 PER).
The problem is the other Grizzlies, especially Mike Miller and Chucky Atkins. Miller (PER 11.18) was Memphis's second-leading scorer in the season but missed several wide-open 3-pointers in Game 2 -- airballing one of them -- and only had 18 points in the first two games.
As for Atkins, his inability to penetrate is a major reason the Griz have so much trouble getting a decent shot, and like Miller his 3-pointers aren't falling. Overall, his playoff PER is a pathetic -1.32 -- yes, that was a minus sign. Throw in the struggles of Shane Battier (3.81) and Bobby Jackson (4.21), add a few illegal screens to the mix, and you have a big reason Memphis went a whopping 16 straight possessions without scoring in the second quarter of Game 2.
HOT: Nenad Krstic (PER 23.68). New Jersey's rapidly improving big man has been huge in the first two games against Indiana -- in fact, he's the Nets' second-leading scorer after Vince Carter. Through two games, his averages of 21 points, eight boards and 57.1-percent shooting helped the Nets earn a split despite horrendous shooting from Jason Kidd and the usual terrible production from New Jersey's bench. If he can turn New Jersey's "Big Three" into a "Big Four," the Nets could stick around for awhile.
NOT: Jermaine O'Neal (PER 4.38). But for one quarter, O'Neal's playoffs would be a complete washout thus far. O'Neal blew up for 11 points in the fourth to lead Indiana to a Game 1 win over the Nets, but the other seven quarters have been disastrous. He only has 16 points combined in those stanzas, and overall he has more turnovers than rebounds. With Stephen Jackson, Peja Stojakovic and Jamaal Tinsley all hobbled (what else is new for Indy?), the Pacers desperately need their alleged go-to guy to be something better than horrendous in tonight's Game 3.
HOT: Gregg Popovich. How about that play call at the end of regulation? With the Spurs down 119-116 in the final seconds of Monday's Game 2, Popovich ran the misdirection play to end all misdirection plays, setting up Ginobili on the left wing and having him drive baseline as a decoy. Barry then came down off the wing toward the corner and ran his defender, Bibby, right into a Duncan screen. Bibby never saw it coming -- who the heck sets a screen 20 feet from the basket on the weak side? -- and was steamrolled, and Barry nailed the open 3-pointer from the corner to tie the game.
Actually, Pop was on fire all evening on Monday. The Spurs continually scored out of timeouts thanks to play calls like the one that got Barry wide open, and (as we'll discuss below) his switch to a rarely-used smallball alignment allowed the Spurs to regain control in the fourth quarter and overtime.
NOT: Rick Adelman. Ho hum. Another year, another Kings' playoff disappointment. Adelman will take some heat for not fouling with his team up by three in the final seconds, but that was probably the right call given how much time still remained. Instead, what got my attention were two other moves that have received little comment in the press thus far. First, he had Bibby on the floor for the Spurs' game-tying play, even though Bibby was worthless on defense the entire night (and season, for that matter). Wouldn't Francisco Garcia have been a more logical play there?
And second, why didn't Kenny Thomas get the ball? Dick Stockton and Reggie Miller completely glossed over this, but San Antonio played smallball for the last eight minutes, 37 seconds of the fourth quarter and the entire overtime, with Michael Finley lining up as its "power" forward.
That meant Finley was guarding Thomas for more than 13 minutes -- more than a quarter of basketball. In all that time Thomas got exactly one shot -- and it came on a put-back, not on a scripted play. So in other words, despite holding a huge advantage on the blocks that they should have exploited mercilessly, the Kings didn't get Thomas the ball down low once in all that time. And in a related story, Sacramento was outscored 44-30 in that stretch.
HOT: Dirk Nowitzki (PER 31.13). What's more impressive -- that he rang up consecutive 31-point games to help Dallas crush Memphis twice, or that he didn't need 20 shots in either game to get there? Nowitzki is killing the Grizzlies by getting himself at the line, an underrated facet of the German giant's game that was a major reason he had the league's highest PER this season.
In two games against Memphis he's taken 29 free-throw attempts, abusing taller defenders like Lorenzen Wright and Gasol off the dribble while punishing the smaller Battier on post-ups and turnarounds. Here's the other underrated thing that makes him great: With all that ballhandling, he only has two turnovers in the playoffs so far. That's why his playoff PER also ranks No. 1 at the moment.
NOT: LeBron James (PER 15.68). Like everybody else in the media, I am holding the kid to an amazingly high standard, because no 21-year-old has ever been this good before. That said, here's what worried me about Monday. It wasn't the missed shots or the turnovers, it was that it was the first time he's ever looked tired to me. Look at that jump ball play again -- he couldn't get off the mark when Eric Snow tapped the ball, which is why he had to leap after the ball to save it in the first place.
For me, that was the whole fourth quarter in a nutshell -- he just didn't look like he had any zip in his legs. For those of you in the Connecting Dots business, LeBron averaged a league-high 42.5 minutes per game this year and played all 48 minutes in Game 1 -- even though he probably didn't need to. Maybe Game 2 was just "one of those nights," as James suggested afterward ... or maybe the Cavs are wearing him out.
Dirk and Prince are hot; LeBron and Bibby are notBy John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Archive
Man, it's tough being an underdog in the NBA playoffs, huh? Through 16 first-round games, the underdogs are a rousing 3-13, and a lot of the losses haven't been close. Half of the first set of games ended with the home team winning by double figures.
But while many of the first-round series aren't providing much in the way of excitement (Lakers-Suns being a glorious exception), we still have the game within the game to discuss.
One of the great things about the opening week of the playoffs is figuring out which guys have brought their A Game for the postseason and which ones failed to dial it up.
Yes, we're working with small samples, but sometimes they can be telling. A number of players have, over the course of their careers, consistently outperformed their regular-season numbers in the playoffs (once you adjust for the slower pace, increased competition, etc.), while an equal number have taken their games in the opposite direction come April. Reggie Miller and Robert Horry would be obvious examples of the former group, while Damon Stoudamire and Clifford Robinson fall in the latter group.
So which players have come out strong this year, and which ones are lagging behind? It's time to answer that today with a playoff edition of who's hot and who's not. The computer printouts please:
HOT: Lamar Odom (PER 20.49). We've all focused on Kobe Bryant in the first two games of the Lakers-Suns series, and deservedly so, but all that attention has distracted us from the brilliant play of Odom -- the highest-rated Laker through two games. Let's face it, the Lakers are a much more effective team when Odom is active and involved, and in the first two games of the Phoenix series he's been as active and involved as he has all season.
Odom had back-to-back 20-point games for only the fourth time this season as L.A. earned a split in Phoenix, and he did it while shooting 63 percent and pulling down 21 boards in the two games. Not to mention, he made the signature play of Game 2 -- diving on a loose ball and passing it to Kobe for a momentum-swinging dunk and foul (I know, I know, the foul call was bogus) to secure a Laker win.
NOT: Shawn Marion (PER 13.40). Arguably the Suns' best player in the regular season, Marion has inarguably not been himself in the first two playoff games. Credit Odom with some of that, because Lamar has been diligent about racing back on D and taking away Marion's easy transition hoops. But the Matrix has been out of sorts in the halfcourt too, yanking down only 16 rebounds in the first two games after averaging 11.8 in the regular season, and struggling to a 43.3 percent mark from the floor. As the series shifts to L.A., Mike D'Antoni's biggest challenge will be figuring out how to swing the Odom-Marion matchup back in Phoenix's favor.
HOT: Tony Parker (PER 27.19). Most lists with "Tony Parker" and "hot" in them involve a certain Desperate Housewife, but not this one. Parker has been hot enough on his own, ripping the Kings for 47 points in the first two playoff games to put San Antonio up 2-0. It's particularly encouraging for the Spurs since Parker's past few playoffs have been shaky at best -- in fact, it was one of the reasons the club went after Nick Van Exel in the offseason. With Tim Duncan still subpar thanks to his ongoing bout with plantar fasciitis, this is the postseason when Parker has to step up. So far, so good.
NOT: Mike Bibby (PER 11.74) and Brad Miller (PER 2.87). Sacramento's role players played out of their minds in Game 2, as Bonzi Wells, Kevin Martin and Shareef Abdur-Rahim combined for 81 points and 29 rebounds. But the Kings still lost because their two best players in uniform -- Ron Artest was serving his one-game suspension -- failed to show up. Bibby shot 3-for-16 with five turnovers on Monday, while Miller went 2-for-8 for the second straight game. He now has 11 points and four rebounds for the series.
Here's the kicker: They were even worse on defense than on offense. Brent Barry (22 points) repeatedly beat Bibby on simple curls and dribble drives, culminating in the game-tying 3-pointer at the end of regulation. And, of course, he was only assigned to Barry because Rick Adelman dared not put him on Parker after the beating Bibby took in Game 1. Actually, this is nothing new. Bibby hasn't played defense in about five years, and I don't know why he gets a free pass on this.
As for Miller, I'm a huge fan of his, but the guy has been completely AWOL on defense. His "help" defense against Parker's drives to the basket in the first two games largely consisted of helping to inbound the ball after it fell through the net. In fact, if I'm Nazr Mohammed, I'm wondering if Miller can do for me what he did for Jerome James a year ago.
HOT: Guys from Argentina: Two of the best players in the postseason thus far have come from south of the equator. Despite his Bulls being down 0-2, Andres Nocioni (PER 22.33) has been absolutely brilliant for Chicago. He knocked down 13-of-15 from the floor in Chicago's Game 2 defeat, and that came on the heels of an 18-point, 16-rebound performance in Game 1. His overall numbers are 24 points, 11 boards and 60 percnet shooting, and if he keeps that up the Bulls should get off the schneid in Chicago.
But "Red Bull" hasn't even been the best Argentinian. That honor goes to Manu Ginobili (PER 26.61). After an indifferent regular season when he was hampered by injuries, the Spurs' swingman reasserted himself in Game 2 against Sacramento. Not only were his 32 points a season-high, but he pulled it off in only 35 minutes of action. And stylistically, it marked the return of El Contusion to last year's playoff form. He repeatedly beat defenders with his lefty drives and then slammed himself into opponents to draw fouls, earning 12 free-throw attempts. Plus, he took the time to hand out nine assists and didn't have a single turnover.
NOT: Guys from Cincinnati: It's not a great time to be a Bearcat. First Cincy dumps Bob Huggins, then Jessica Simpson dumps Nick Lachey (a noted Bearcats fan), and now George Karl dumps Kenyon Martin. The Nuggets coach discounted K-Mart after he was limited all season by knee problems (he had microfracture surgery in the offseason), upsetting Martin to the point that he yanked himself from Game 2 against the Clippers and earned a suspension for at least the next two games.
Martin hasn't been the only disappointing Cat. Two of his Nuggets' teammates, DerMarr Johnson (PER 2.75) and Ruben Patterson (PER 0.77), attended the same school, and between them they have eight points so far in the playoffs. Another Bearcat, Nick Van Exel (PER 8.95), missed all five of his shots in Game 2 for San Antonio and is at 23.1 percent for the playoffs, redeeming himself only with a perfectly placed towel toss on the top of Jalen Rose's head while the Knicks' forward was moonlighting as a sideline reporter for TNT. And poor Jason Maxiell hasn't even left the bench yet for Detroit.
HOT: Tayshaun Prince (PER 21.40). If you haven't watched much of the Pistons-Bucks demolition, I can't say I blame you. But here's the salient fact from that series: Prince is killing Bobby Simmons (PER 8.46). Maybe he's mad that Bobby got more money this summer, or maybe he just has better help. All I know is Tayshaun's numbers in the first two games are 18.5 points, 7.5 boards and 53.9 percent shooting, while Bobby has 16 points combined and hasn't taken a foul shot. There's plenty of blame to go around for the Milwaukee side, but if Simmons doesn't at least play Prince to a draw in his first-ever postseason series then the Bucks truly have no chance.
NOT: Memphis' supporting cast. The Grizzlies opened the playoffs with two lackluster efforts, and the pundits are throwing darts at Pau Gasol. That comes with the turf because he's Memphis's star player, but actually he's been great -- his 20.0 points and 4.5 assists are right in line with what he did all season (as is his 22.71 PER).
The problem is the other Grizzlies, especially Mike Miller and Chucky Atkins. Miller (PER 11.18) was Memphis's second-leading scorer in the season but missed several wide-open 3-pointers in Game 2 -- airballing one of them -- and only had 18 points in the first two games.
As for Atkins, his inability to penetrate is a major reason the Griz have so much trouble getting a decent shot, and like Miller his 3-pointers aren't falling. Overall, his playoff PER is a pathetic -1.32 -- yes, that was a minus sign. Throw in the struggles of Shane Battier (3.81) and Bobby Jackson (4.21), add a few illegal screens to the mix, and you have a big reason Memphis went a whopping 16 straight possessions without scoring in the second quarter of Game 2.
HOT: Nenad Krstic (PER 23.68). New Jersey's rapidly improving big man has been huge in the first two games against Indiana -- in fact, he's the Nets' second-leading scorer after Vince Carter. Through two games, his averages of 21 points, eight boards and 57.1-percent shooting helped the Nets earn a split despite horrendous shooting from Jason Kidd and the usual terrible production from New Jersey's bench. If he can turn New Jersey's "Big Three" into a "Big Four," the Nets could stick around for awhile.
NOT: Jermaine O'Neal (PER 4.38). But for one quarter, O'Neal's playoffs would be a complete washout thus far. O'Neal blew up for 11 points in the fourth to lead Indiana to a Game 1 win over the Nets, but the other seven quarters have been disastrous. He only has 16 points combined in those stanzas, and overall he has more turnovers than rebounds. With Stephen Jackson, Peja Stojakovic and Jamaal Tinsley all hobbled (what else is new for Indy?), the Pacers desperately need their alleged go-to guy to be something better than horrendous in tonight's Game 3.
HOT: Gregg Popovich. How about that play call at the end of regulation? With the Spurs down 119-116 in the final seconds of Monday's Game 2, Popovich ran the misdirection play to end all misdirection plays, setting up Ginobili on the left wing and having him drive baseline as a decoy. Barry then came down off the wing toward the corner and ran his defender, Bibby, right into a Duncan screen. Bibby never saw it coming -- who the heck sets a screen 20 feet from the basket on the weak side? -- and was steamrolled, and Barry nailed the open 3-pointer from the corner to tie the game.
Actually, Pop was on fire all evening on Monday. The Spurs continually scored out of timeouts thanks to play calls like the one that got Barry wide open, and (as we'll discuss below) his switch to a rarely-used smallball alignment allowed the Spurs to regain control in the fourth quarter and overtime.
NOT: Rick Adelman. Ho hum. Another year, another Kings' playoff disappointment. Adelman will take some heat for not fouling with his team up by three in the final seconds, but that was probably the right call given how much time still remained. Instead, what got my attention were two other moves that have received little comment in the press thus far. First, he had Bibby on the floor for the Spurs' game-tying play, even though Bibby was worthless on defense the entire night (and season, for that matter). Wouldn't Francisco Garcia have been a more logical play there?
And second, why didn't Kenny Thomas get the ball? Dick Stockton and Reggie Miller completely glossed over this, but San Antonio played smallball for the last eight minutes, 37 seconds of the fourth quarter and the entire overtime, with Michael Finley lining up as its "power" forward.
That meant Finley was guarding Thomas for more than 13 minutes -- more than a quarter of basketball. In all that time Thomas got exactly one shot -- and it came on a put-back, not on a scripted play. So in other words, despite holding a huge advantage on the blocks that they should have exploited mercilessly, the Kings didn't get Thomas the ball down low once in all that time. And in a related story, Sacramento was outscored 44-30 in that stretch.
HOT: Dirk Nowitzki (PER 31.13). What's more impressive -- that he rang up consecutive 31-point games to help Dallas crush Memphis twice, or that he didn't need 20 shots in either game to get there? Nowitzki is killing the Grizzlies by getting himself at the line, an underrated facet of the German giant's game that was a major reason he had the league's highest PER this season.
In two games against Memphis he's taken 29 free-throw attempts, abusing taller defenders like Lorenzen Wright and Gasol off the dribble while punishing the smaller Battier on post-ups and turnarounds. Here's the other underrated thing that makes him great: With all that ballhandling, he only has two turnovers in the playoffs so far. That's why his playoff PER also ranks No. 1 at the moment.
NOT: LeBron James (PER 15.68). Like everybody else in the media, I am holding the kid to an amazingly high standard, because no 21-year-old has ever been this good before. That said, here's what worried me about Monday. It wasn't the missed shots or the turnovers, it was that it was the first time he's ever looked tired to me. Look at that jump ball play again -- he couldn't get off the mark when Eric Snow tapped the ball, which is why he had to leap after the ball to save it in the first place.
For me, that was the whole fourth quarter in a nutshell -- he just didn't look like he had any zip in his legs. For those of you in the Connecting Dots business, LeBron averaged a league-high 42.5 minutes per game this year and played all 48 minutes in Game 1 -- even though he probably didn't need to. Maybe Game 2 was just "one of those nights," as James suggested afterward ... or maybe the Cavs are wearing him out.