Amuseddaysleeper
04-29-2006, 03:13 PM
2006 NBA Playoffs
From Brendan McGovern,
Nine NBA Playoffs Numbers You Need to Know
Following the lessons of statistical history laid waste to our March Madness bracket this year, but we still believe in the nine statistical patterns listed below when it comes to predicting the NBA Title winner. Needless to say, things don't bode well for a darkhorse team breaking away to get to the NBA Finals, let alone win the whole thing. Yep, our incredibly forecast of a Kings-Pacers Final looks even worse now and it seems like we're headed toward another San Antonio Spurs championship.
1. Leave the Kids at Home: Since 1981, the youngest starting lineup to bring home an NBA title was the 2004 Detroit Pistons squad, whose front five averaged 27 years of age. Half the teams in this year's NBA Playoffs field will have younger starting fives by the start of the NBA Finals: Chicago (23.6), Milwaukee (24.8), L.A. Lakers (25.4), Washington (25.8), Sacramento and Cleveland (both 27).
2. First Time Here? Don't Get Comfy: Just once in the last 50 years has an NBA head coach won the NBA Title in his first year coaching in the NBA Playoffs: Paul Westhead in 1980 with the L.A. Lakers. This season, Mike Brown (Cleveland) and Terry Stotts (Milwaukee) will be making their first head coaching appearances in the NBA Playoffs.
3. No One-Year Wonders in the NBA: No team in the last 28 seasons has won an NBA title after failing to make the Playoffs the year before and just once in the last 27 seasons has a team made it to the NBA Finals after failing to make the Playoffs in the previous season: the 2002 New Jersey Nets. Playoff teams who failed to make it to the postseason last year: Cleveland, L.A. Clippers, L.A. Lakers and Milwaukee,.
4. Cinderellla Stuck on the Sidelines: The 1995 Houston Rockets were the only NBA champ in the last 36 years (!) to be seeded lower than No. 3 in their conference ... the defending champs were a 6-seed. The top three seeds in each conference this year are: Detroit, Miami and New Jersey in the East, and San Antonio, Phoenix and Seattle in the West. Bear in mind the new three-division automatic berth system that determines seeding at the top. Under the old system, Dallas would have been 3-seed in the West, and not Denver.
5. 3-Point Moderation: Since the introduction of the 3-Point shot in 1980, the only NBA champion to derive over 20% of their offense from 3-Pointers were the 1995 Houston Rockets, who got 22.8% of their offense from beyond the arc. This season, Phoenix (27.9%), Memphis (23.1%), Chicago (21.1%), Detroit (21.1%), Indiana (20.9%) and the Lakers (20.3%) have all generated over 20% of their points from the 3-Point territory.
6. Make 'em Miss: The last NBA champion to yield a higher shooting percentage to its opponent than its own shooting percentage were the 1978 Washington Bullets. Current Playoff teams who allow their opponents to shoot better than they do include Milwaukee (45.2% to 46.6%), Washington (44.7% to 46.6%) and Cleveland (45.4% to 45.5%).
7. What's the Point? Are prolific passing point guards really the key to success? Not since the 1988 L.A. Lakers has an NBA champion featured a player (Magic Johnson) who finished in the Top 5 in assists per game. That 17-year draught may make us think twice about how important Steve Nash (10.5 assists per game), Chauncey Billups (8.7) and Jason Kidd (8.4) will be to their team's title hopes.
8. Respect the Rebound: Not since the 1993 Chicago Bulls has an NBA champion not had one of the Top 10 rebounders in the league. The Playoff teams this year featuring one of the 10 leaders in rebounds per game (minimum 70 games or 800 rebounds): Detroit (Ben Wallace), Phoenix (Shawn Marion), San Antonio (Tim Duncan), L.A. Clippers (Elton Brand and Chris Kaman) and Milwaukee (Jamaal Magloire).
9. Take Your Foot Off the Gas: Just one NBA champion in the last 31 years -- the 1982 L.A. Lakers -- played at a heightened pace of two additional possessions per game over the league average. Playoff teams cruising over the NBA average of 90 possessions per game this season: Phoenix (95.2), Denver (93.6), Chicago (92.5), and Washington (92.1). (Pacing stats: KnickerBlogger.net)
Top 25 2006 NBA Free Agents ... and Beyond
The NBA has chimed in with its official list of Free Agents available this offseason, and so we felt it was time to update our rankings of this very mundane class of free-agent talent. You'll notice some interesting properties such as Francisco Elson, Keith Bogans and Jackie Butler are now classified as restricted free agents. Here's your refresher course...
"Restricted" signifies that a player's current team can match any contract offer made by another team. "Team Option" and "Player Option" mean the team or player has the right to void the player's current contract, making him an unrestricted free agent.
Here's our list of the Top 25 NBA Free Agents for 2006, updated following the events of the past season:
Ben Wallace, PF/C, Detroit
Jason Terry, PG, Dallas
Peja Stojakovic, SF, Indiana (Player option)
Al Harrington, PF, Atlanta
Mike James, Toronto (Player option)
Chris Wilcox, PF, Seattle (Restricted)
Nene, PF/C, Denver (Restricted)
Drew Gooden, PF, Cleveland (Restricted)
Bonzi Wells, SG/SF, Sacramento
Matt Harpring, SG/SF, Utah
Joel Przybilla, C, Portland
Ronald Murray, Cleveland
Speedy Claxton, PG, New Orleans
Vladimir Radmanovic, SF/PF, LA Clippers
Jared Jeffries, Washington (Restricted)
James Posey, SG/SF, Miami (Player option)
Nazr Mohammed, C, San Antonio
Reggie Evans, PF, Denver
Keith Van Horn, SF/PF, Dallas
Sam Cassell, PG, LA Clippers
Alonzo Mourning, Miami
Fred Jones, Indiana (Restricted)
Ruben Patterson, Denver (Player option)
Bobby Jackson, PG/SG, Memphis
Francisco Elson, Denver (Restricted)
There's not much to be had in terms of impact or long-term development, but the money will surely still fly and the 25 names listed above and the masses on The Best of the Rest page will surely benefit.
Ben Wallace with the Bulls? Peja Stojakovic a Bobcat? Drew Gooden pulling down franchise player money? Don't be shocked if we see these changes once the heat starts playing its tricks on GMs around the NBA.
The Best of the Rest - NBA Free Agents by Position
POINT GUARD
David Wesley, Houston
Marcus Banks, Minnesota
Chucky Atkins, Memphis
Jason Hart, Sacramento (Player option)
Jannero Pargo, Chicago
Gary Payton, Miami
Tony Delk, Detroit
Nick Van Exel, San Antonio
Jacque Vaughn, New Jersey
Milt Palacio, Utah
Anthony Carter, Minnesota
Keith McLeod, Utah (Team option)
Rick Brunson, Seattle
Howard Eisley, LA Clippers
Lindsey Hunter, Detroit
Royal Ivey, Atlanta
Andre Emmett, Miami (Restricted)
Moochie Norris, Houston
Darrick Martin
Jeff McInnis, New Jersey (Player option)
Eddie Gill, Indiana
Darrell Armstrong, Dallas
Troy Bell
Mike Wilks, Cleveland
Mateen Cleaves, Seattle
Alvin Williams, Toronto (Player option)
Anthony Goldwire, LA Clippers
Antonio Burks, Memphis (Restricted)
Lionel Chalmers
Aaron Miles, Golden State
Anthony Roberson, Memphis (Team option)
Horace Jenkins
SHOOTING GUARD
Keith Bogans, Houston (Restricted)
John Salmons, Philadelphia (Restricted)
Derek Anderson, Miami (Player option)
DerMarr Johnson, Denver
DeShawn Stevenson, Orlando (Player option)
Greg Buckner, Denver (Player option)
Anfernee Hardaway, Orlando
Jimmy Jackson, SG, Phoenix
Lamond Murray, New Jersey
Aaron McKie, LA Lakers (Player option)
Richie Frahm, Houston
Eric Piatkowski, Chicago
Linton Johnson, New Jersey
Matt Carroll, Charlotte (Team option)
Voshon Lenard, Portland
Shandon Anderson, Miami
Rawle Marshall, Dallas (Team option)
Awvee Storey, Washington (Restricted)
Stacey Augmon, Orlando
Andre Owens, Utah (Restricted)
Charles Smith, Portland
Bernard Robinson, Charlotte (Restricted)
Alex Acker, Detroit (Restricted)
Kevin Burleson, Charlotte (Restricted)
Reece Gaines, Milwaukee
Tony Bobbitt, LA Lakers (Restricted)
Jermaine Jackson
Von Wafer, LA Lakers (Team option)
Alan Anderson, Charlotte (Team option)
Devin Green, LA Lakers (Restricted)
SMALL FORWARD
Jumaine Jones, Charlotte
Tim Thomas, Phoenix
Rasual Butler, New Orleans
Devean George, LA Lakers
Trevor Ariza, Orlando (Restricted)
Justin Reed, Minnesota (Restricted)
Devin Brown, Utah (Team option)
Walter McCarty, LA Clippers
Laron Profit, LA Lakers
Jiri Welsch, Milwaukee (Restricted)
Qyntel Woods, New York
Eric Williams, Toronto (Player option)
Toni Kukoc, Milwaukee
Lee Nailon, Philadelphia
Ronald Dupree, Minnesota (Restricted)
Ryan Bowen, Houston (Player option)
Maciej Lampe, Houston (Restricted)
George Lynch
Adrian Griffin, Dallas
Calbert Cheaney, Golden State
Shavlik Randolph, Philadelphia (Restricted)
Matt Barnes, Philadelphia
Bryon Russell, Denver
Ndudi Ebi
Donta Smith, Atlanta (Team option)
Sean Banks, New Orleans
Terrence Morris, Orlando
POWER FORWARD
Darius Songaila, Chicago (Player option)
Jackie Butler, New York (Restricted)
Alan Henderson, Cleveland
Jackson Vroman, New Orleans (Restricted)
Clifford Robinson, New Jersey (Team option)
Stanislav Medvedenko, LA Lakers
Lawrence Roberts, Memphis (Team option)
Samaki Walker, Indiana
Sean Marks, San Antonio
Aaron Williams, New Orleans
Brandon Bass, New Orleans (Team option)
Bo Outlaw, Orlando
Josh Powell, Dallas (Team option)
Jared Reiner, Phoenix
Lonny Baxter, Houston
CENTER
Melvin Ely, Charlotte (Restricted)
Lorenzen Wright, PF/C, Memphis
Kelvin Cato, Detroit
Jarron Collins, Utah
DJ Mbenga, Dallas (Restricted)
Mario Kasun, Orlando (Restricted)
Scot Pollard, Indiana
Michael Olowokandi, C, Boston
Jake Voskuhl, Charlotte
Antonio Davis, Toronto
Brian Grant, Phoenix
Ervin Johnson, Milwaukee
Loren Woods, Toronto
Boniface N'Dong, LA Clippers (Restricted)
Michael Bradley, Philadelphia
Curtis Borchardt, Boston (Restricted)
Ha Seung-Jin, Portland (Restricted)
Jamal Sampson, Sacramento
Pat Burke, Phoenix
Zendon Hamilton, Cleveland
Earl Barron, Miami
From Brendan McGovern,
Nine NBA Playoffs Numbers You Need to Know
Following the lessons of statistical history laid waste to our March Madness bracket this year, but we still believe in the nine statistical patterns listed below when it comes to predicting the NBA Title winner. Needless to say, things don't bode well for a darkhorse team breaking away to get to the NBA Finals, let alone win the whole thing. Yep, our incredibly forecast of a Kings-Pacers Final looks even worse now and it seems like we're headed toward another San Antonio Spurs championship.
1. Leave the Kids at Home: Since 1981, the youngest starting lineup to bring home an NBA title was the 2004 Detroit Pistons squad, whose front five averaged 27 years of age. Half the teams in this year's NBA Playoffs field will have younger starting fives by the start of the NBA Finals: Chicago (23.6), Milwaukee (24.8), L.A. Lakers (25.4), Washington (25.8), Sacramento and Cleveland (both 27).
2. First Time Here? Don't Get Comfy: Just once in the last 50 years has an NBA head coach won the NBA Title in his first year coaching in the NBA Playoffs: Paul Westhead in 1980 with the L.A. Lakers. This season, Mike Brown (Cleveland) and Terry Stotts (Milwaukee) will be making their first head coaching appearances in the NBA Playoffs.
3. No One-Year Wonders in the NBA: No team in the last 28 seasons has won an NBA title after failing to make the Playoffs the year before and just once in the last 27 seasons has a team made it to the NBA Finals after failing to make the Playoffs in the previous season: the 2002 New Jersey Nets. Playoff teams who failed to make it to the postseason last year: Cleveland, L.A. Clippers, L.A. Lakers and Milwaukee,.
4. Cinderellla Stuck on the Sidelines: The 1995 Houston Rockets were the only NBA champ in the last 36 years (!) to be seeded lower than No. 3 in their conference ... the defending champs were a 6-seed. The top three seeds in each conference this year are: Detroit, Miami and New Jersey in the East, and San Antonio, Phoenix and Seattle in the West. Bear in mind the new three-division automatic berth system that determines seeding at the top. Under the old system, Dallas would have been 3-seed in the West, and not Denver.
5. 3-Point Moderation: Since the introduction of the 3-Point shot in 1980, the only NBA champion to derive over 20% of their offense from 3-Pointers were the 1995 Houston Rockets, who got 22.8% of their offense from beyond the arc. This season, Phoenix (27.9%), Memphis (23.1%), Chicago (21.1%), Detroit (21.1%), Indiana (20.9%) and the Lakers (20.3%) have all generated over 20% of their points from the 3-Point territory.
6. Make 'em Miss: The last NBA champion to yield a higher shooting percentage to its opponent than its own shooting percentage were the 1978 Washington Bullets. Current Playoff teams who allow their opponents to shoot better than they do include Milwaukee (45.2% to 46.6%), Washington (44.7% to 46.6%) and Cleveland (45.4% to 45.5%).
7. What's the Point? Are prolific passing point guards really the key to success? Not since the 1988 L.A. Lakers has an NBA champion featured a player (Magic Johnson) who finished in the Top 5 in assists per game. That 17-year draught may make us think twice about how important Steve Nash (10.5 assists per game), Chauncey Billups (8.7) and Jason Kidd (8.4) will be to their team's title hopes.
8. Respect the Rebound: Not since the 1993 Chicago Bulls has an NBA champion not had one of the Top 10 rebounders in the league. The Playoff teams this year featuring one of the 10 leaders in rebounds per game (minimum 70 games or 800 rebounds): Detroit (Ben Wallace), Phoenix (Shawn Marion), San Antonio (Tim Duncan), L.A. Clippers (Elton Brand and Chris Kaman) and Milwaukee (Jamaal Magloire).
9. Take Your Foot Off the Gas: Just one NBA champion in the last 31 years -- the 1982 L.A. Lakers -- played at a heightened pace of two additional possessions per game over the league average. Playoff teams cruising over the NBA average of 90 possessions per game this season: Phoenix (95.2), Denver (93.6), Chicago (92.5), and Washington (92.1). (Pacing stats: KnickerBlogger.net)
Top 25 2006 NBA Free Agents ... and Beyond
The NBA has chimed in with its official list of Free Agents available this offseason, and so we felt it was time to update our rankings of this very mundane class of free-agent talent. You'll notice some interesting properties such as Francisco Elson, Keith Bogans and Jackie Butler are now classified as restricted free agents. Here's your refresher course...
"Restricted" signifies that a player's current team can match any contract offer made by another team. "Team Option" and "Player Option" mean the team or player has the right to void the player's current contract, making him an unrestricted free agent.
Here's our list of the Top 25 NBA Free Agents for 2006, updated following the events of the past season:
Ben Wallace, PF/C, Detroit
Jason Terry, PG, Dallas
Peja Stojakovic, SF, Indiana (Player option)
Al Harrington, PF, Atlanta
Mike James, Toronto (Player option)
Chris Wilcox, PF, Seattle (Restricted)
Nene, PF/C, Denver (Restricted)
Drew Gooden, PF, Cleveland (Restricted)
Bonzi Wells, SG/SF, Sacramento
Matt Harpring, SG/SF, Utah
Joel Przybilla, C, Portland
Ronald Murray, Cleveland
Speedy Claxton, PG, New Orleans
Vladimir Radmanovic, SF/PF, LA Clippers
Jared Jeffries, Washington (Restricted)
James Posey, SG/SF, Miami (Player option)
Nazr Mohammed, C, San Antonio
Reggie Evans, PF, Denver
Keith Van Horn, SF/PF, Dallas
Sam Cassell, PG, LA Clippers
Alonzo Mourning, Miami
Fred Jones, Indiana (Restricted)
Ruben Patterson, Denver (Player option)
Bobby Jackson, PG/SG, Memphis
Francisco Elson, Denver (Restricted)
There's not much to be had in terms of impact or long-term development, but the money will surely still fly and the 25 names listed above and the masses on The Best of the Rest page will surely benefit.
Ben Wallace with the Bulls? Peja Stojakovic a Bobcat? Drew Gooden pulling down franchise player money? Don't be shocked if we see these changes once the heat starts playing its tricks on GMs around the NBA.
The Best of the Rest - NBA Free Agents by Position
POINT GUARD
David Wesley, Houston
Marcus Banks, Minnesota
Chucky Atkins, Memphis
Jason Hart, Sacramento (Player option)
Jannero Pargo, Chicago
Gary Payton, Miami
Tony Delk, Detroit
Nick Van Exel, San Antonio
Jacque Vaughn, New Jersey
Milt Palacio, Utah
Anthony Carter, Minnesota
Keith McLeod, Utah (Team option)
Rick Brunson, Seattle
Howard Eisley, LA Clippers
Lindsey Hunter, Detroit
Royal Ivey, Atlanta
Andre Emmett, Miami (Restricted)
Moochie Norris, Houston
Darrick Martin
Jeff McInnis, New Jersey (Player option)
Eddie Gill, Indiana
Darrell Armstrong, Dallas
Troy Bell
Mike Wilks, Cleveland
Mateen Cleaves, Seattle
Alvin Williams, Toronto (Player option)
Anthony Goldwire, LA Clippers
Antonio Burks, Memphis (Restricted)
Lionel Chalmers
Aaron Miles, Golden State
Anthony Roberson, Memphis (Team option)
Horace Jenkins
SHOOTING GUARD
Keith Bogans, Houston (Restricted)
John Salmons, Philadelphia (Restricted)
Derek Anderson, Miami (Player option)
DerMarr Johnson, Denver
DeShawn Stevenson, Orlando (Player option)
Greg Buckner, Denver (Player option)
Anfernee Hardaway, Orlando
Jimmy Jackson, SG, Phoenix
Lamond Murray, New Jersey
Aaron McKie, LA Lakers (Player option)
Richie Frahm, Houston
Eric Piatkowski, Chicago
Linton Johnson, New Jersey
Matt Carroll, Charlotte (Team option)
Voshon Lenard, Portland
Shandon Anderson, Miami
Rawle Marshall, Dallas (Team option)
Awvee Storey, Washington (Restricted)
Stacey Augmon, Orlando
Andre Owens, Utah (Restricted)
Charles Smith, Portland
Bernard Robinson, Charlotte (Restricted)
Alex Acker, Detroit (Restricted)
Kevin Burleson, Charlotte (Restricted)
Reece Gaines, Milwaukee
Tony Bobbitt, LA Lakers (Restricted)
Jermaine Jackson
Von Wafer, LA Lakers (Team option)
Alan Anderson, Charlotte (Team option)
Devin Green, LA Lakers (Restricted)
SMALL FORWARD
Jumaine Jones, Charlotte
Tim Thomas, Phoenix
Rasual Butler, New Orleans
Devean George, LA Lakers
Trevor Ariza, Orlando (Restricted)
Justin Reed, Minnesota (Restricted)
Devin Brown, Utah (Team option)
Walter McCarty, LA Clippers
Laron Profit, LA Lakers
Jiri Welsch, Milwaukee (Restricted)
Qyntel Woods, New York
Eric Williams, Toronto (Player option)
Toni Kukoc, Milwaukee
Lee Nailon, Philadelphia
Ronald Dupree, Minnesota (Restricted)
Ryan Bowen, Houston (Player option)
Maciej Lampe, Houston (Restricted)
George Lynch
Adrian Griffin, Dallas
Calbert Cheaney, Golden State
Shavlik Randolph, Philadelphia (Restricted)
Matt Barnes, Philadelphia
Bryon Russell, Denver
Ndudi Ebi
Donta Smith, Atlanta (Team option)
Sean Banks, New Orleans
Terrence Morris, Orlando
POWER FORWARD
Darius Songaila, Chicago (Player option)
Jackie Butler, New York (Restricted)
Alan Henderson, Cleveland
Jackson Vroman, New Orleans (Restricted)
Clifford Robinson, New Jersey (Team option)
Stanislav Medvedenko, LA Lakers
Lawrence Roberts, Memphis (Team option)
Samaki Walker, Indiana
Sean Marks, San Antonio
Aaron Williams, New Orleans
Brandon Bass, New Orleans (Team option)
Bo Outlaw, Orlando
Josh Powell, Dallas (Team option)
Jared Reiner, Phoenix
Lonny Baxter, Houston
CENTER
Melvin Ely, Charlotte (Restricted)
Lorenzen Wright, PF/C, Memphis
Kelvin Cato, Detroit
Jarron Collins, Utah
DJ Mbenga, Dallas (Restricted)
Mario Kasun, Orlando (Restricted)
Scot Pollard, Indiana
Michael Olowokandi, C, Boston
Jake Voskuhl, Charlotte
Antonio Davis, Toronto
Brian Grant, Phoenix
Ervin Johnson, Milwaukee
Loren Woods, Toronto
Boniface N'Dong, LA Clippers (Restricted)
Michael Bradley, Philadelphia
Curtis Borchardt, Boston (Restricted)
Ha Seung-Jin, Portland (Restricted)
Jamal Sampson, Sacramento
Pat Burke, Phoenix
Zendon Hamilton, Cleveland
Earl Barron, Miami