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10-07-2004, 11:09 PM
Week 5 preview: Record time

by Cris Carter, Yahoo! Sports
October 7, 2004




• Compare Cris' picks to other Yahoo! Sports experts

Week 5 has a couple of good divisional matchups: Giants vs. Cowboys in Dallas, Dolphins vs. Patriots in New England and Rams vs. Seahawks in Seattle.

Regardless of where Miami is in the standings, the Dolphins-Patriots games are always very, very close. This Sunday's meeting has added importance because the Patriots are trying to stay undefeated and win an NFL-record 19th straight.

The Seahawks are trying to prove that their 3-0 record is legitimate, while the Giants want to let people know that their 3-1 start is not a fluke.


THE PICK SIX
1. Miami at New England - Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) Preview

Dolphins
4th, AFC East
Record: 0-4 at Patriots
1st, AFC East
Record: 3-0

The Dolphins haven't had one piece of good luck all season. From Ricky Williams' retirement to A.J. Feeley's sub-par play, everything that could have possibly gone wrong with Miami's offense has happened. Knowing that Bill Belichick will have his team super-focused – and outside of the theory "Any given Sunday" – the Patriots have too much going for them. I don't think the game will be lopsided, though.

Prediction: New England. Miami's offense puts its defense on the field too long and turns the ball over, allowing teams to score against its defense. That makes life very, very difficult.


2. N.Y. Giants at Dallas - Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX) Preview

Giants
2nd, NFC East
Record: 3-1 at Cowboys
3rd, NFC East
Record: 2-1

A win on the road against Bill Parcells and the Cowboys will help build the case that the Giants are for real. The only way you can really make believers out of people is to keep winning over the long haul because every team has a stretch where they don't play well. The question is when you get into one of those slumps, can you shorten it?

Prediction: Dallas. The Giants are a plus-10 in turnover ratio. I don't think they can continue that pace.


3. St. Louis at Seattle - Sunday, 4:15 p.m. ET (FOX) Preview

Rams
2nd, NFC West
Record: 2-2 at Seahawks
1st, NFC West
Record: 2-1

When people talk about the best teams in the league, they don't always mention Seattle. I believe the Seahawks are among the NFL's best because they have great balance. Everyone knows they have a good offense, but Seattle's defense is playing spectacular, giving up the least amount of points in the NFL (4.3 a game).
The Seahawks are awfully difficult to run against. And anytime you can stop the Rams from running the ball early, Mike Martz will immediately go to the pass. That's not a winning formula for St. Louis. Even though Marc Bulger and the receivers pile up a lot of yards, the Rams win by rushing Marshall Faulk 20 times a game.

Prediction: Seattle. I don't believe Martz will have the patience to stick with the running game against Seattle's defense. In big games, the Rams tend to get pass-happy.


4. Detroit at Atlanta - Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX) Preview

Lions
T-1st, NFC North
Record: 2-1 at Falcons
1st, NFC South
Record: 4-0

The Falcons are 4-0 and that doesn't include Michael Vick having a great game. He had one in Week 2 against St. Louis when he ran for 109 yards, but other than that, he's been average. But he's the leader of the team, and the No. 1 stat for a quarterback is victories.
I know Vick isn't happy because he's used to being the marquee guy by making all the throws and making all the runs, but the Falcons have a winning formula now with coach Jim Mora. Vick doesn't have to do all those things anymore for Atlanta to win. If he can be patient and continue to allow the team to run the football and play great defense, I think it will help him – and the Falcons – in the long run.

Prediction: Atlanta. The Lions are 2-1, but I don't think they're as good as their record indicates. Plus, they have five starters questionable for the game. Even though they had a bye week, they're still banged-up.


5. Carolina at Denver - Sunday, 4:15 p.m. ET (FOX) Preview

Panthers
3rd, NFC South
Record: 1-2 at Broncos
1st, AFC West
Record: 3-1

The Panthers have really dug themselves a hole and Denver isn't exactly the place you want to go to try and get a win. Playing with three new starters on the offensive line has made it very difficult for Carolina to gain the cohesiveness it had last year. Stephen Davis has missed the last two games, too, preventing the Panthers from being the dominant, physical football team they want to be.
The Broncos have been shutting teams down in the fourth quarter, giving up less than 100 yards combined over the first four weeks. Mike Shanahan addressed the defense in the offseason and, by doing so with the trade for Champ Bailey, has improved the front seven – which is now one of the best in the league.

Prediction: Denver. People don't usually talk about the Broncos having one of the best defenses in the league. But in the next couple of weeks, people will start to say that.


6. Minnesota at Houston - Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX) Preview

Vikings
1st, NFC North
Record: 2-1 at Texans
3rd, AFC South
Record: 2-2

The Texans were very disappointed by their Week 1 loss to San Diego and feel like they should be 3-1. They go up against a Vikings team with no experience at running back – Michael Bennett and Moe Williams are hurt and Onterrio Smith has been suspended. So if Houston can take away Randy Moss, there's a great chance to upset Minnesota.

Prediction: Minnesota. I like the matchup of Moss vs. Aaron Glenn. That's 6-foot-4 vs. 5-9, folks. Of course, the Texans will double-team Moss, but there's no way Vikings coach Mike Tice won't find Moss on Glenn and let Daunte Culpepper play alley-oop.





THE OTHER GAMES
Oakland (2-2) at Indianapolis (3-1) - Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) Preview

The Raiders had eight false starts last week. The RCA Dome is not the place where you want your offensive line to be jumping all around. Also, Oakland has lost 13 straight on the road. Playing the Colts in Indy isn't the place where you want to snap that kind of streak.
Prediction: Indianapolis.

Tampa Bay (0-4) at New Orleans (2-2) - Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX) Preview

With the Saints, you never know which team is going to show up. Every week, it's a different team. They played absolutely horrible football in Arizona last Sunday. But can Tampa Bay get New Orleans to perform that poorly with Chris Simms as the quarterback? That'll be hard to do since the Buccaneers can't run the ball.
Prediction: New Orleans.

Cleveland (2-2) at Pittsburgh (3-1) - Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) Preview

The Steelers have gotten back to the style that they played six, seven, eight years ago, with a dominant running game and a solid defense. If you look at tape of the Browns, you'd say, "Man, this team is awful," but they find a way to hang around. Still, Cleveland has very few explosive players on offense and gives up a lot of big plays on defense.
Prediction: Pittsburgh.

Buffalo (0-3) at N.J. Jets (3-0) - Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS) Preview

If the Bills had any semblance of a consistent passing game, they'd be 3-1 and one of the league's surprises like the Giants. But all they've gotten is disappointing efforts from Drew Bledsoe, who has yet to bounce back from a terrible season last year. A struggling offensive line hasn't helped matters.
Prediction: N.Y. Jets.

Jacksonville (3-1) at San Diego (2-2) - Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS) Preview

The Jaguars are a young team, so it'll be interesting to see how they bounce back from their first loss of the season. Jacksonville, however, runs into a San Diego team that's playing some good football and flying high after its big win over Tennessee. The Chargers' defense is much improved and they're starting to get some production out of the receiving corps to go with LaDainian Tomlinson. Also, Drew Brees is starting to manage the game. Before, he was making a lot of bad decisions with the football, but now he's making a lot of good throws.
Prediction: San Diego.

Arizona (1-3) at San Francisco (0-4) - Sunday, 4:15 p.m. ET (FOX) Preview

I truly believe that the 49ers are the worst team in the league. On the other hand, the Cardinals have played well enough to win three of their four games. They're playing hard and playing very physical football, but they only have one weapon on offense – Emmitt Smith. On Sunday, the defense will bail Arizona out by forcing a lot of turnovers.
Prediction: Arizona.

Baltimore (2-2) at Washington (1-3) - Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) Preview

I don't know how many more fumbles Clinton Portis has left in him. But trust me, if he fumbles against Baltimore, Ray Lewis will be right there to scoop up the ball. It has already been a long week for Jamal Lewis, but I like Baltimore because I don't think Ray Lewis will let the Ravens drop to 2-3.
Prediction: Baltimore.



Cris Carter is Yahoo! Sports' NFL analyst. Send him a question or comment for potential use in a future column or webcast.

Updated on Friday, Oct 8, 2004 12:10 am EDT

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