Tonights supposed big storms?

[Vashner]

Update from the Spurstalk Weather Alert Team

Uh... I don't see BEEP yet but it's moist out there. Other than every weatherman trying to get a jump on this.

Also that Smoke from Mexico. Why do they burn this time of year? I guess they wait till the winds start blowing north. I hate that it's harsh and stinks.

Nothing on radar, little water vapor on satellite. Potential I guess.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

You can see the dryline really clearly on the WV imagery. Thats going to be the focus. It's not going to be a line but smaller supercells that form along that line. And when they do form later today when its hotter, they're going to be strong with big ass hail and isolated tornados. A lot of people won't get rain, but those that do will have some nastiness to deal with.

[Everybody Wants Some]

everybody wants some

[greyforest]

everybody wants some

horray a gimmick account

[Vashner]

Seriously I was not making up that story of hearing a tornado last week. It was over devils den (behind Ingram mall). But it looked like it was about 1000 feet in the air (the funnel we saw). I guess there is no way to see if there was any rotation there at Friday 7:40 pm? I don't know of where you can get an archive like that.

[travis2]

It's been a while since I covered this part of rain physics...

But it seems to me that the presence of the smoke over SA would likely lessen the severity of the storms by providing a source of condensation nuclei earlier in the formation path...

Of course, if the storms form and get bad somewhere where there's no smoke contamination, all bets are off.

How far does the plume extend, anyway?

[Vashner]

I think they burn to enrich the soil. But gahhh does it stink..

Looking at visual satellite it's hard to tell what's smoke and what's cloud.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFVS.JPG

[MannyIsGod]

Not to mention smoke would provide a layer that reflects sunlight and lowers atmospheric heating. If the temps get to 95 along that dryline (and they will) there will be more than enough lift smoke or no smoke to get things going.

What would be interesting would be the effect the smoke plume would have on hail formation. Theres already a very large hail threat from south of San Antonio up through the Arkansas/Oklahoma region.

[MannyIsGod]

I don't think that smoke cloud is as thick as you think it is. I've seen really no mention of it.

[Vashner]

It does not smell as bad as uh.. 2002 I think was really bad.

[travis2]

hmmmm...if the cell gets big in an area without much particulate matter...and then moves into such an area...gosh, I don't know, but it seems possible that it could increase the amount of hail produced (but not any increase in size)...it could also cause the cell to rain itself out in the lower levels and thus "snuff" the storm out...

[Vashner]

Well this rain pattern has kept us out of restrictions for now. The lakes are filling up. Guadalupe flow way above normal. Good news..

Aquifer level - 670.04

Comal flow - 310 (little above normal.. and it was real slow a couple weeks ago)

[MannyIsGod]

I wonder what levels the smoke is usually at. I would assume it would be at the upper levels, if so I'm not sure it would have much of a retardent affect on lift.

[MannyIsGod]

That flow needs to pick the fuck up. Memorial day is coming up, and we all know what that means. My fat ass needs to sit in a tube.

[SpursWoman]

Well this rain pattern has kept us out of restrictions for now. The lakes are filling up. Guadalupe flow way above normal. Good news..

Aquifer level - 670.04

Comal flow - 310 (little above normal.. and it was real slow a couple weeks ago)


And it can keep coming until the 3rd of July. We still have a living room full of un-lit fireworks that we were banned from shooting off on New Year's. :fro


Any chance of something happening right about 5:30? :angel :lol

[Vashner]

Comal stays steady most of the time cause it's the worlds smallest river :)

Above the canyon dam right now the water is good so should be sweet for anyone that wants to hit it at Bergheim Campgrounds. (http://www.bergheimcampground.com/)

I don't think the Army has increased the flow yet cause the lake is just now filling up and some city built a HUGE pump there sucking out water now.

Besides tubing right after the dam.. it smells like poop cause the water comes from the bottom of the dam. But I guess that's where the rowdy's like to drink etc.

[SA210]

Game days have been a little wet lately, haven't they?

I'm glad I don't have a Dish.

[travis2]

I wonder what levels the smoke is usually at. I would assume it would be at the upper levels, if so I'm not sure it would have much of a retardent affect on lift.


I'm not looking at it in terms of lift...I'm only looking at in terms of providing something new/larger for the raindrop/hailstone to coalesce around...

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah I get that and I'm with you. The more particulate the heavier (or the larger amount of) the drops/hail the more lift it takes to keep a storm sustained is what I'm saying.

[travis2]

Ah...OK. In that case, I could see it as a lift killer, if there's enough of it. Basically killing the lift by removing (through earlier condensation) anything that could be lifted.

[CosmicCowboy]

Also that Smoke from Mexico. Why do they burn this time of year?

Fire is the "natural" (and cheap) Herbicide. They leave the dry winter grass/crop tops on and then wait for the spring weeds to sprout...after they have all sprouted, they light off the dry grass/tops which burns and kills the weeds. The ash also acts as natural fertilizer.

The indians did brush control in North America in the same way. That is why the buffalo grasslands/prairies extended from the Texas gulf coast all the way to Montana for hundreds of years...it wasn't until we wiped out the indians and started putting up fences that the brush country as we know it came to be...as late as 1890 it was still rolling grassland from San Antonio to Corpus Christi...not the brush thickets you see now...

[MannyIsGod]

Its on.

If SA is gonna get anything its gonna come up 35 from Laredo. The Fredricksburg storms look mean though. Typical big hail droping super cells.

For whatever reason, I don't think we'll get anything tonight though. We'll see though.

[Vashner]

They jinxed it by insisting it was gonna blowuptuate tonight.

Edit: Hum clouds are building over Bexar. Maybe it will rain later..?