Hey how come the bushites haven't given an update on the Electoral votes?

[IcemanCometh]

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 280 Bush 239

Whats the ma-tter? Your guy not in the lead any-more? Want a cook-ie? (http://www.electoral-vote.com)

[JoeChalupa]

This morning I heard Bush is up by about 11...

[Marcus Bryant]

Small surprise Ice's site uses the polls favorable to Kerry.

Here's another:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/images/rcp%20electoral/10-6-04-REV1.JPG

If that puts Bush in a bad position electorally I probably should try some of Ice's crystal meth.

[IcemanCometh]

funny thats the one thats been posted here before by yonivore and his cronies as being the definitive site. they kept posting how bush was ahead after the rnc and kerry got no bonus from the dnc.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/graph.png

[Marcus Bryant]

Yonnivore speaks for...Yonnivore.

[IcemanCometh]

btw what your site shows is an incumbent with not enough electoral votes to win an election 1 month before the election. how could that possibly be a good sign

[Marcus Bryant]

Job approval ratings above 50% and he certainly has an edge electorally. Only one Bush state from 2000 is a tossup with a good chance for a Kerry pickup and that is New Hampshire. Perhaps Ohio but we shall see. As for Gore states in 2000 that are tossups and potential Bush pickups you have Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico. Bush has also been showing strength in those Republican bastions of New Jersey, Oregon and Maine. The last two incumbent presidents to lose both had job approval ratings in the 30s and shitty economies. They also were facing two of the top political talents this nation has seen over the last 30 years. The Bush 2000 states also picked up 7 electoral votes due to reapportionment.

[Yonivore]

Yonnivore speaks for...Yonnivore.
Thank you and, I will.

Yes, I've kept up with that site. It was originally posted here by Nbadanallah, though...

Anyway, I wouldn't take too much comfort in a temporary hiccup. Look at late September in that histography; Kerry stayed in the lead for about a day. Then, if you have any statistical ability, draw a trend line for both...it'll be disappointing for you, I assure.

Oh, one more factoid about that site. It doesn't use an average, it uses whatever polls are available for the day. The strategy, while it may work over a long period, is very unreliable for the short-term. Just look at the noise in those lines leading up to the reflected total for the most current day's polls.

[scott]

Small surprise Ice's site uses the polls favorable to Kerry.

Doesn't it go without saying that a site that has Kerry leading uses polls favorable to Kerry- and a site that has Bush leading uses polls favorable to Bush?

[Marcus Bryant]

You mean like CNN? (http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/08/electoral.map/index.html)

http://i.cnn.net/cnn/ELECTION/2004/special/president/electoral.map/popup.electoral.map1008.jpg

[scott]

Bush is leading, so the poll clearly favors Bush... this doesn't seem like it should be a difficult concept to grasp.

[Marcus Bryant]

The concept was not that an electoral map showing Bush or Kerry ahead would be based on state polls that show Bush or Kerry ahead respectively.

It was that the thread's originator would post such a map which selects the state polls which show Kerry ahead.

Duh.

Laters little hater.

[scott]

It was that the thread's originator would post such a map which selects the state polls which show Kerry ahead.

No shit? Well, thanks Echo!