Spurs vs. Mavs: The Chess Match

[timvp]

I just finished re-watching the first two games against the Mavericks and I must say that the chess match going on between Pop and AJ is quite interesting. The adjustments have been genius on both sides. Not since the Pop versus Phil Jackson battles have we witnessed such a well coached series after two games.

The first adjustment made was by Pop and it was before the series even started. Ever since 2000 when Dirk started to establish himself in the league, the Spurs have always switched on pick-and-rolls against the Mavs. Always. That is why you’d often see AJ matched up against Dirk, or in recent years Parker guarding Dirk.

In Game 1, Pop changed it up and that chess move devastated the Mavs’ game plan. Instead of switching on the pick-and-rolls, the Spurs utilized the defensive system that they employ against the Utah Jazz. Basically what the Spurs are doing is they are sending over a bigman to help on pick-and-rolls and the two players involved are not switching at all. What this does is it forces the point guard to drive into the lane with the bigman waiting there while the player who set the screen stays guarded throughout the play.

Why Pop did this was to make sure that Dirk didn’t get open or even get switched off onto a smaller player. Bowen would ignore the pick-and-roll and wouldn’t help at all. Instead, he’d just follow Dirk as he faded to the corner. The Spur who was guarding the player going around the screen was supposed to fight around the screen with little to no help.

That drastic change in strategy nullified the Mavs game plan in Game 1. You could see that they came into the game with the idea of isolating Dirk against the smaller defender after the pick-and-rolls. The Mavs had a series of plays developed to take advantage of that. When the Spurs changed up the strategy that they’ve used for half a decade, it caught the Mavs totally off guard.

That change in the way the Spurs guarded the pick-and-rolls was a genius adjustment and pretty much won Game 1 for the Spurs. AJ and the Mavs weren’t expecting it at all and couldn’t adjust mid-flight.

In Game 2, the Mavs were ready and they just trashed that defense. What they did, which was very, very smart, was they just stopped running any of the plays they usually run for Dirk. Instead, they concentrated on other mismatches. With Bowen on Dirk, the Mavs knew that a bigman was going to be on Josh Howard. The Mavs ran isolations and pick-and-rolls using Howard and the Spurs couldn’t stop it. Howard was just too fast for either Horry or Duncan.

The Mavs also found the weakness in the Spurs’ pick-and-roll defense -- and that was covering the point guard. What they would do is they’d space the opposite bigman and make him travel a long distance to come and help. By the time the help got there on the pick-and-rolls, the point guard was already in the paint. By then, the guard either had a layup or had an easy kick to spot-up shooter. Using Dirk as a decoy, the Mavs just attacked the Spurs right down the middle.

When the Mavs did use Dirk, they’d use him coming off of screens. Knowing that Bowen can get around any screen, the Mavs instead used twin screeners to make it impossible for Bowen to get around. They’d slow down Bowen with a guard and then the center would be there to wipe him out. And since the Spurs were told not to switch at all, Dirk would be wide open.

That game plan in Game 2 by the Mavs was gold. The Spurs couldn’t handle any of that defensively with the way they were guarding Dallas. Even if the Spurs played perfect defense (which they were far from doing), AJ had the Mavs running perfect plays to counteract it. There was no way the Spurs were winning that game.

Now heading into Game 3, the ball is in Pop’s court to adjust. The Spurs can’t use the same game plan and expect to win. Howard would continue to go off and the point guards for the Mavs would keep streaking down the lane.

What to do?

1. Switch Bowen onto Howard.
Pros: Bowen could most likely do a very good job of controlling Howard. There’s a reason why the Mavs are undefeated when Howard scores at least 20 points. If you put Bowen onto him, the Spurs could play more standard defense and would have far fewer mismatches.
Cons: Dirk could explode. You’d have to guard Dirk with either Horry or Duncan and that could get ugly. Dirk is explosive and is having his the best year of his career. You’d have to pencil in Dirk for 40 if the Spurs switch Bowen off of him.

2. Play Small Ball
Pros: I hated small ball against the Kings, but against the Mavs it actually makes some sense. I don’t love it but it could be needed to try to stop Dallas. If you keep Bowen on Dirk, going small and putting Finley or Barry on Howard could be the answer. To be sure that Howard doesn’t go off, you might have to actually start the small ball lineup.
Cons: Small ball isn’t Spurs Basketball. Rebounding and blocked shots would suffer. Tim Duncan would be more likely to get into foul trouble.

3. Switch on pick-and-rolls
Pros: The Spurs know how to do this. They switched on pick-and-rolls against the Mavericks from 2000 until Game 1. In that time span, it always worked well for the Spurs. It would force Dirk to try to post-up smaller defenders and that’s something he hasn’t been great at in his career.
Cons: This could also get Dirk going. He’d spend a lot of time with players like Tony and Manu on him and he can shoot right over them. It’d also force the bigs to try to handle the point guards, which is harder since the Mavs aren’t Nash driven anymore. Since Nash wasn’t overly fast and he hurts you more passing, turning him into a scorer made sense. Now that Nash is gone, it’s more difficult to justify this scheme.

4. Make them shoot
Pros: This version of the Mavs isn’t nearly as deadly from the outside as past versions. They have some good shooters but they aren’t loaded with great shooters like they used to be. The Spurs could theoretically play the same style of defense but just back off the shooters. Make players like Josh Howard and Devin Harris beat you with their shooting ability. By sagging in the lane, the Spurs could turn the Mavs into a jump shooting team.
Cons: This one is obvious. If the Mavs hit those shots, the Spurs would be in trouble. Howard is a much improved shooter and a player like Jason Terry could become deadly from the perimeter. With the Mavs being at home, this is risky because a few shots could get the arena rocking.

Those are the four options that Pop has right now. I’m sure AJ is preparing for each of them. Honestly, I don’t know which one I prefer. Luckily they are all doable and each plan would force the Mavs to change what beat the Spurs in Game 2.

If it were up to me, I’d use option number three and make Dirk beat the Spurs while being guarded by a smaller player. He hasn’t consistently burned the Spurs yet and I’d be willing to play with that fire.

Offensively, the Spurs are fine. Tim Duncan is playing great. For the Spurs to have even more success, Tony and Manu are going to have to step up. The way AJ has the Mavs defending the three-point line, you can forget about beating them from long range. The Mavs are conceding the middle of the lane and are trying to force Tony and Manu to finish at the rim over Diop/Dampier/Mbenga. It’s a good strategy when the backcourt isn’t playing at 100%, but if Tony or Manu get on a roll, they could easily drop 30.

What I also found interesting is that AJ used Phil Jackson-like double-teams on Duncan in the first two games. He was playing him straight up early on and then sending doubles from odd angles as the game progressed. Duncan used to have trouble against that strategy but he’s handled it exceptionally well in the first two games. He’s seeing where the doubles are coming from and not having any trouble.

It still does worry me that the strategy could work and lead to a fourth quarter collapse offensively for the Spurs. I’ve seen it work when the Lakers ran it for years and there’s always a chance it could work again. AJ will let Duncan get going early and then hope that when the fourth quarter hits, Duncan gets tentative when the double-teams are coming hard and doesn’t know where to pass it and then the shooters aren’t in their normal positions and start missing.

(Oh and F AJ for using Lakers style defense against the Spurs when he was part of the meltdowns against the same exact style defense :flipoff)

Spurs fans better buckle up and be prepared for a long series. These Mavs are not going to roll over and die. They are too well coached and their coaches know too much about the Spurs’ weaknesses. Plus, players like Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard are no pushovers. These Mavs can play and it’s possible that they beat the Spurs.

Possible. But it ain’t happenin’.

Time for the Spurs and Spurs fans to sack up. The Spurs are taking on their protégé. It’s not going to be easy.

F AJ. F _allas. F Cuban. F Mav Fans.

Believe.


http://www.kossuleht.ee/duncan1playoffs2003_3.jpg

[Cant_Be_Faded]

great post timvp, I say option 3 as well. Option 1 is close though, especialy if we insist on continuing to start Horry. Damn, it really depends on the way the refs are gonna fucking call the game though....if they call it tight, options 1 and 2 could be disasterous

[1Parker1]

(Oh and F AJ for using Lakers style defense against the Spurs when he was part of the meltdowns against the same exact style defense )

:lol Excellent Post, as always, Timvp. I personally like Option 1 the best. Dirk getting his doesn't worry me so much as the Mavs spreading their offense with Dirk, Howard, Harris, etc. each getting 20+. I think if Manu and Parker play to their ability, that can more than offset Dirk's production and also make it harder for Harris at the other end.

[sprrs]

Great post. Option 1 is the one I'd go with. Dirk would probably explode, but if the offense runs more through him it wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

[A-Train]

Go with #3 and start your regular season lineup of Nazr or Rasho at the 5 spot. Also start Bowen on Howard. The Spurs need to concentrate on defending the paint, hitting the glass, and shutting down the supporting cast. Turning the Mavs into a one dimensional jumpshooting team with Dirk forced to carry the load has worked well in the past. That's Spurs Basketball.

[Solid D]

Mix it up, I say. Switch sometimes, don't sometimes. The Spurs do well when they give different looks. The Spurs have done some pretty wild defenses over the years. I've even seen them sag back to a 2-3 with at least one big out front when the Mavs run high screens. Bring doubles from different places. Change it up. That's how the Spurs win.

I miss Malik against the Mavs. Too bad Horry and Oberto can't fill that role more.

[A-Train]

Mix it up, I say. Switch sometimes, don't sometimes. The Spurs do well when they give different looks. The Spurs have done some pretty wild defenses over the years. I've even seen them sag back to a 2-3 with at least one big out front when the Mavs run high screens. Bring doubles from different places.

I miss Malik against the Mavs. Too bad Horry and Oberto can't fill that role more.

You and me both. Malik was the perfect fit against them.

[Kori Ellis]

Mix it up, I say. Switch sometimes, don't sometimes.

Then we better keep Nazr off the floor. He doesn't know the basic defense, switching back and forth might cause his brain to explode :lol

I agree that they maybe should start out by switching and then late in the game stay.

[A-Train]

Anyways, I think you need that 2nd big on the floor, a shotblocker. The Spurs gave up way too many easy layups on defense and had too many one and done trips on offense. Spurs Basketball is built on interior defense and size inside. Even Nazr could understand that his role was to protect the paint. Now's the time for him and Rasho to earn their $.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

God damn nazr's bball IQ is the 8th wonder of the world.


Pop needs to bust out Tiger Style and the Liquid Swords if he wants to win in Dallas.

[diego]

yeah, mix it up, but i've got to say i like option 4. before the mavs were a deadly sharpshooting team, now they've changed, so make them shoot. i mean if we are really buying into this whole master vs protege thing we should try strategies teams use on us, which is close the paint and make them shoot.

plus you have to take into account they have a lot of young players who might crumble under the pressure of throwing up bricks at home.

can't wait till tomorrow, i'll finally get to watch a game!

[MannyIsGod]

Credit AJ with watching game footage of the Kings series and noticing just how bad our rebounding is right now. In reality, the Spurs need to do a couple of things LJ didn't mention.

1) Get some fast breaks so that Dallas can't crash the offensive glass. Or seal off the damn weakside whoever is playing the four needs to seal that off after the rotations. Our guards need to be able to pick up those long boards off long misses as well.

2) I may be sick if I see another Mavs corner three in transition. Thats a huge leak they need to plug as well.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Credit AJ with watching game footage of the Kings series and noticing just how bad our rebounding is right now. In reality, the Spurs need to do a couple of things LJ didn't mention.

1) Get some fast breaks so that Dallas can't crash the offensive glass. Or seal off the damn weakside whoever is playing the four needs to seal that off after the rotations. Our guards need to be able to pick up those long boards off long misses as well.

2) I may be sick if I see another Mavs corner three in transition. Thats a huge leak they need to plug as well.


credit the mavericks transition D too
That corner three bull shit was just stupid spurs ball. Stupid stupid ball.

[Islymore]

I think Bowen on Howard would be a good switch. I cant think that the Mavs have not considered it for the nehimxt game - but I dont know Avery. I do think that that would allow Dirk to go off in the pts and I'm not certain if "letting Dirk get his" is the way to go, I gotta agree with an above poster - I think alternating Bowen on Howard/Dirk would be beneficial to the Spurs...

Im not certain how that would work over the whole 48 mins, due to the fact that while Bowen is on Howard, Dirk might get his pts... and when Bowen is on Dirk, Howard might get his pts... And Im not certain how that will play out for either team.

I gotta agree with the weakside D, I wasnt expecting the Mavs to be able to get any 3 shots off with open looks. The transition shots are hurting the Spurs too, I look forward to seeing how Pop switches the game to fit the Spurs Saturday. And seeing what move the Lil General makes to challenge the Spurs on the homecourt.

[timvp]

I don't think that saying a "mix" is a viable answer. These are basic defensive principals the Spurs have to have going into the game. Pop isn't one to adjust his defensive strategy mid game. He sometimes will throw out a zone for a possession here or a trap there, but he sticks with his strategy 95% of the time during a game.

Transition defense is something the Spurs supposedly are working on over this break. It's a good thing too because they gave up some easy baskets. But the big problem was their halfcourt defense where the Mavs scored whenever they wanted. If the Spurs can get back and force the Mavs to beat them in a slow down pace, they should have success ... as long as they don't use the strategy from games one and two.

[CosmicCowboy]

1) Get some fast breaks so that Dallas can't crash the offensive glass. Or seal off the damn weakside whoever is playing the four needs to seal that off after the rotations. Our guards need to be able to pick up those long boards off long misses as well.

The sad thing is, Mavs were sagging to stop the fast break. They were crashing the glass because of small ball. We just weren't getting the rebounds.

Nice post LJ...

[ploto]

I like #1- definitely put Bruce on Howard- but mine has the wrinkle I proposed before the series began--start Rasho on Dirk. Let Rasho use his length and size to deny Dirk getting the ball- force Dirk to make more difficult passes over a big man. I want to leave Tim on Diop because we need Tim inside rebunding and rotating and blocking shots. It also gives Tim the freedom because Diop is not much of the offense. I know Dirk will get by Rasho a few times, but I have seen Rasho do a really nice job before on Rasheed Wallace. I prefer that to Tim on Dirk, pulling him away from the basket. Rasho's presence would also help with the transition defense problems. He might be a big slow guy, but Rasho knows how to get back on defense.

[Solid D]

I don't think that saying a "mix" is a viable answer. These are basic defensive principals the Spurs have to have going into the game. Pop isn't one to adjust his defensive strategy mid game. He sometimes will throw out a zone for a possession here or a trap there, but he sticks with his strategy 95% of the time during a game.

Throwing a zone out there isn't the only thing Pop does to mix things up. I liked your first post timvp, but this one needs some serious checking, my friend. Whether it is doubling the ball, trapping corners, doubling a hot scorer with a big, or sending doubles from different places to mix things up is what the Spurs do when they are at their best. Example, moving Bowen to defend Chauncey Billups at the end of game 5 and game 7 of the Finals is mixing it up, even if it is part of an overall game strategy.

[Condemned 2 HelLA]

credit the mavericks transition D too
That corner three bull shit was just stupid spurs ball. Stupid stupid ball.

I was screaming about that all game long on Tuesday night.
The Mavs were in place for every rebound, back on defense when they didn't get the offensive board, and forced the Spurs outside everytime down court. Those were perfect opportunities wasted that they SHOULD HAVE taken full advantage of with the Mav big men in foul trouble all night long.
You'd think that they're turning back into that "finesse" team that they were tagged as being for all those annoying years.
:cuss

[Solid D]

I do like a general defensive game strategy of showing hard and long off high screens when the Spurs switch and putting a butt into Howard when the ball goes up.

[picnroll]

When they posted that Harris and Terry were going to start I said Horry was going to get killed by Howard.

Bowen is going to have to take away Howard and keep him off the offensive boards. Parker is going to have to fight through those picks and stay in front of Harris or the big jump Harris and drive him out like they use to do with Parker. Finley and Manu are going to have to bust their humps doing a Bowen imitation on Dirk. If Manu can't get it done on the offensive end he needs to make it up with D. If Manu and Finley can't get it done then it's Horry and Duncan.

[Islymore]

Yeah but how is Rasho when it comes to fouling? I dont know bc I dont watch every Spurs game and the few that I did watch, I dont remember him particularly standing out. Would Rasho on Dirk create a problem for Rasho and fouls or would that be better defensively? And leaving Dirk with Rasho on him, would that give him more freedom to get open looks? That might shut Howard down... but Howard has never scored more than 30 against a team, while Dirk has that ability.... and might be able to do it if he gets enuf open looks... Is that possible against Rasho? (Including all the fouls pts he might get)

[Guru of Nothing]

How about I just crank up the volume on my lucky Spurs-watching CD to eleven?

[Solid D]

How about I just crank up the volume on my lucky Spurs-watching CD to eleven?

Can't hurt.

[timvp]

Throwing a zone out there isn't the only thing Pop does to mix things up. I liked your first post timvp, but this one needs some serious checking, my friend. Whether it is doubling the ball, trapping corners, doubling a hot scorer with a big, or sending doubles from different places to mix things up is what the Spurs do when they are at their best. Example, moving Bowen to defend Chauncey Billups at the end of game 5 and game 7 of the Finals is mixing it up, even if it is part of an overall game strategy.


Yeah, but those are superficial looks and not the basic philosophy going into a game. Whether to double someone or to throw a press or a trap is a in-game decision. How to guard the pick-and-roll and drastic changes of who guards who is something different. And in my defense, I did mention trapping in that paragraph you quoted :)

Plus switching Bowen onto Billups was part of the game plan. They did the same thing in Games 5 and 6. It wasn't really a mid-game adjustment. It's like when Tim used to guard Shaq in the fourth ... that was part of the gameplan going into the game.

Basically what I'm attempting to say is the Spurs need to figure out their foundation defensively going into Game 3. Throwing in a few wrinkles here and a few traps there will come naturally like it does every game.

What I don't want to see (and what would be tough to make work) would be Bowen guarding Howard and then switching over to Dirk and then the Spurs switching pick-and-rolls and then it just being overly confusing to the Spurs' defense. The genius of a Pop defense is its simplicity.

[ShoogarBear]

I actually like a modified version of 1. Bsically the strategy would be to let Dirk get his but don't let anybody else beat you, similar to what we did with Amare last year. In fact, it has an even better chance of success with all the isolation Dallas runs. Dallas has already shown this year (against the Warriors) that they're capable of losing even if Dirk gets 50.

Dirk has been relatively well controlled in both games, and the Spurs are almost down 0-2. Nowitzki hasn't been the problem. Howard and Stackhouse and Harris have.

[mookie2001]

2. Play Small Ball
Pros: I hated small ball against the Kings, but against the Mavs it actually makes some sense. I don’t love it but it could be needed to try to stop Dallas. If you keep Bowen on Dirk, going small and putting Finley or Barry on Howard could be the answer. To be sure that Howard doesn’t go off, you might have to actually start the small ball lineup.
Cons: Small ball isn’t Spurs Basketball. Rebounding and blocked shots would suffer. Tim Duncan would be more likely to get into foul trouble.


4. Make them shoot
Pros: This version of the Mavs isn’t nearly as deadly from the outside as past versions. They have some good shooters but they aren’t loaded with great shooters like they used to be. The Spurs could theoretically play the same style of defense but just back off the shooters. Make players like Josh Howard and Devin Harris beat you with their shooting ability. By sagging in the lane, the Spurs could turn the Mavs into a jump shooting team.
Cons: This one is obvious. If the Mavs hit those shots, the Spurs would be in trouble. Howard is a much improved shooter and a player like Jason Terry could become deadly from the perimeter. With the Mavs being at home, this is risky because a few shots could get the arena rocking.






http://www.kossuleht.ee/duncan1playoffs2003_3.jpg
I strongly object
to me if you stop playing small ball, EVERY problem not referee related is solved

its like the 1st rule of basketball fundamentals; it enrages me

when duncan shoots (like the mavs are letting him do), he better make it because there is NO way any spur is getting a tip or rebound

and of course on d they cant buy a rebound either

but mostly its defense, a big part of bowens game is forcing guys to beat him right into a shotblocker, he gets his game limited too

but I agree 100% on letting those bastards shoot, they should back the fuck off them when theyre on the perimeter, give the refs no chance to call a bullshit foul, and not let them get to the rim where another foul will promptly be called

[E20]

Excellent anaylsis.

[Solid D]

timvp, things are starting to blur a bit now.

Remember the Spurs win in March vs. Dallas? Bowen on Dirk, then Tim, then Manu, then Bruce again. They switched it up.

[timvp]

timvp, things are starting to blur a bit now.

Remember the Spurs win in March vs. Dallas? Bowen on Dirk, then Tim, then Manu, then Bruce again. They switched it up.

IIRC, Bruce always matched up with him but the Spurs were switching pick-and-rolls. That's how Dirk ended up on Manu and even Parker sometimes. The only way Bowen wasn't on him was if he was on the bench or it was in transition.

The Spurs weren't running different guys at him as the primary defender ... they were just switching everything. That'd go under the "switch on the pick-and-roll" strategy.

I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure Bowen was always the primary defender that game. I'll take a look at that game to make sure.

:smokin

[Solid D]

Okay. That's fine. If you look at the highlights here, you can see Timmy on Dirk and Manu on him. The Duncan ones don't really look like they came after switches.

http://www.nba.com/games/20060302/DALSAS/boxscore.html

Also, see CBS Sportsline commentary. I didn't see this prior to my intial comments but it seems to support the notion that Pop did "mix it up" a bit.
http://cbs.sportsline.com/columns/weblogs/entry/3928/032006

Updated: Mar/03/2006 04:11 AM
Spurs big winners
San Antonio and Dallas put on a good show in one of the more highly anticipated games of the season. Maybe not as fun to watch as the Phoenix Suns or the impromptu dunk contest Denver sprung on Detroit the other night, but still, it had a playoff feel and was tight throughout.

These two meeting in the Western Conference Semis is inevitable, and the Spurs were the big winners on Thursday night in evening up the standings, but don’t fool yourself into thinking what you saw is going to repeat itself come mid-to-late May. Here, however, is what you can take out of the 98-89 result:

1. Bruce Bowen will be in Dirk Nowitzki’s nightmares for the next few months, and he’ll be in his shorts all series. Last year, the Rockets frustrated Nowitzki with Tracy McGrady and Phoenix went after him with Shawn Marion. Athleticism and tenacity can get the better of Nowitzki, and by employing Bowen despite the size disadvantage, Gregg Popovich played his best card. He also mixed things up by rotating Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, so it’s clear his primary objective is to keep the Big German from getting off.
2. Robert Horry looked slow and rusty, especially early, yet he ended up being one of the Spurs more effective players. So what else is new? Horry has coasted through the regular season for years now and then emerged as a key figure when it counts. He did it again Thursday, and will do it again when these two meet. Gametime decision -- ha.

3. Nazr Mohammed is a far more effective post threat than Rasho Nesterovic, and it now becomes clear that his recent insertion into the starting lineup is meant to ensure Nowitzki has to work on the defensive end. The steady Mohammed had three offensive boards and played an effective game under the basket.

4. Even though Tim Duncan looks to be about 80 percent, he’s still remarkably effective. You almost wonder if the Spurs shouldn’t give him the next month off and hope that plantar fasciitis subsides some so he can be a little sharper. That, of course, is unlikely.

5. The Mavericks missed Devin Harris (thigh injury) greatly. The second-year guard is big and quick, and might be able to slow down Tony Parker some. Parker, like he’s done the entire year, held the fort down until the creaky legs warmed up. Jet Terry isn’t big enough to make too great an impact on the improved Parker, but perhaps Harris can. Doesn’t Parker’s running teardrop look like he’s delivering it while slipping on a wet floor?

6. Josh Howard showed no signs of nursing his recently sprained ankle and will have a huge impact on the series.

7. Michael Finley sees that Dallas’ uniform and treats it the way a bull does a red cape. He came out and delivered numerous big baskets and may end up being the x-factor in the Mavs’ elimination the way former teammate Steve Nash was last year for his new team.

8. Finally, the way it's shaping up, believe this series will go seven. San Antonio is typically unbeatable at home, yet was having trouble taking hold of the game despite the fact the Mavs' first nine 3-pointers. The Spurs know that’s not going to be a recurring theme, and they’re very aware how difficult a place Dallas’ American Airlines Center is to play at.

[J.T.]

I say go with #1. I have been saying before this series even started that the Amare Defense would beat the Mavs.

[A-Train]

timvp, things are starting to blur a bit now.

Remember the Spurs win in March vs. Dallas? Bowen on Dirk, then Tim, then Manu, then Bruce again. They switched it up.

What I remember is that Mohammed started and played 30 minutes. Rasho saw some time too.

[milkyway21]

Cons: Dirk could explode. You’d have to guard Dirk with either Horry or Duncan and that could get ugly. Dirk is explosive and is having his the best year of his career. You’d have to pencil in Dirk for 40 if the Spurs switch Bowen off of him.

2. Play Small Ball
Pros: I hated small ball against the Kings, but against the Mavs it actually makes some sense. I don’t love it but it could be needed to try to stop Dallas. If you keep Bowen on Dirk, going small and putting Finley or Barry on Howard could be the answer. To be sure that Howard doesn’t go off, you might have to actually start the small ball lineup.
Cons: Small ball isn’t Spurs Basketball. Rebounding and blocked shots would suffer. Tim Duncan would be more likely to get into foul trouble.

Horry is not the best option to guard Howard. Bowen is. So if Tim guards Dirk he'd likely be on early foul trouble. And that's scares me. If Tim will be in early foul trouble the Mavs could expode...

How about Horry on Dirk? Then late in the game have Tim switch roles.

just don't let Brent Barry guard Stackhouse he looked uncertain and lost in game 1, might happen again in game 3.

as for speedy Harris we need a faster player on him. Not Finley. Maybe TP?


Then we better keep Nazr off the floor. He doesn't know the basic defense, switching back and forth might cause his brain to explode

Through two games, the Spurs' "center" combination of Rasho Nesterovic and Nazr Mohammed has totaled one point in 23 minutes. So much for the tradition of twin towers in San Antonio.

so frustrating :cry Nazr was kind of tentative. In the last playoffs he dominated in the offensive rbds. And I was amazed. Now he's nowhere to be found in that area.

[gospursgojas]

Option 1 would be the Spurs best bet....

Let Dirk get his, Howard will NOT be able to score against Bruce, and when he goes to the bench neither will Stack. With the rest tony hopfully will be able to guard Harris or Terry, and the same goes for Manu.

This would be like what the Spurs did against the Suns last year with Amare...

[CosmicCowboy]

LJ...you need to sticky this thread.

[FromWayDowntown]

It's just my opinion, but I think this group of Spurs plays screens best when, as Solid D mentioned, there's a long and hard show to hedge the ball coming over the top. Whether that creates a switch or just gives the ball defender a beat to catch up and trap the ball is a different question; I think the Spurs are at their defensive best when they don't switch screens. But, to me, that brings up the Spurs major defensive weakness, which is the inability of the guards to really fight through solid screens up high. I think Pop has gone to switching a lot in the last few seasons, mostly because he doesn't have a strong point guard (ala AJ) who is capable of fighting through the screen -- that, and missing David Robinson, who played screen and roll defense better than perhaps any big man in NBA history (certainly better than any big I've ever seen).

I think a major problem in both games so far has been that the Spurs indecision or lack of aggressiveness in playing defense through screens has created the need for wing defenders to sag into the lane to aid in stopping the ball. I don't have the benefit of having re-watched either game, but it appeared to me in Game 2 that on several occasions, particularly when Brent Barry was matched up with Stackhouse, he came into the middle to offer a hand with penetration and left Stackhouse alone in corners for unconstested 3's. That's a recipe for disaster. I think the solve to that is to go away from small ball -- to have a second big to defend the rack when a guard is able to exploit a problem with the defense on screens. At the same time, while it's useful for wings to sink a bit and help to defend the middle, I don't think you want to give great looks to guys who are hot from the arc. If you have a second big in the game, he can contest things at the rim by rotating while eliminating the need for the wings to commit to that kind of help.

And, as much as everyone wants to talk about Bowen moving to Howard or staying on Dirk, I thought the most curious move in Game 2 was the fact that Pop generally left Manu on Harris and put Parker on Terry. How much of that was the product of Tony's fatigue and injury and how much of that was a deliberate strategy by Pop arising from some other decision, I don't know. I do think, though, that Parker is a much more formidable matchup for Harris. If you can keep Harris out of the lane, a lot that went well for Dallas in Game 2 might not be available in later games.

[A-Train]

Just an observation but I'm struck by the dearth of Mav Fan mental dribbles in this thread. Once you start talking basketball....

[CosmicCowboy]

bump

no way this thread should drop off the page.

[Kori Ellis]

Though Bowen may see some time on Howard tonight, he's still expected to spend most of his minutes guarding Nowitzki.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/basketball/nba/spurs/stories/MYSA051306.7C.BKNspurs.notebook.2edf954.html

[whottt]

4. Make them shoot
Pros: This version of the Mavs isn’t nearly as deadly from the outside as past versions. They have some good shooters but they aren’t loaded with great shooters like they used to be. The Spurs could theoretically play the same style of defense but just back off the shooters. Make players like Josh Howard and Devin Harris beat you with their shooting ability. By sagging in the lane, the Spurs could turn the Mavs into a jump shooting team.
Cons: This one is obvious. If the Mavs hit those shots, the Spurs would be in trouble. Howard is a much improved shooter and a player like Jason Terry could become deadly from the perimeter. With the Mavs being at home, this is risky because a few shots could get the arena rocking.

Those are the four options that Pop has right now. I’m sure AJ is preparing for each of them. Honestly, I don’t know which one I prefer. Luckily they are all doable and each plan would force the Mavs to change what beat the Spurs in Game 2.

If it were up to me, I’d use option number three and make Dirk beat the Spurs while being guarded by a smaller player. He hasn’t consistently burned the Spurs yet and I’d be willing to play with that fire.



Werd....I was noticing this myself...the Spurs are the far superior shooting team...in the paint and out of it.


We need to do to them what teams have always done to us...


Pack the paint...a fitting way to beat AJ.

This include Dirk...Dirk will get his points but Dirk is not clutch...never has been never will be. Ya he's hit a game winner or so...but everyone hits one every thousand or so tried.


Bottom line is that Tim Duncan is a better go to guy that Nowitzki...and Parker is a better paint scorer than anyone on the Mavs...these are the deciding factors of the series.

[carina_gino20]

i'm leaning on 1 and 4. So far, Bowen has done a very good job on Dirk but as much as I would like to see that, there's an immediate problem called Josh Howard that needs to be addressed. 4 also makes sense because unless Dallas shoots 55+% the whole game, they're bound to miss. Seeing those Mavs go for layup after layup in Game 2 just made me sick.

[strangeweather]

I agree with 1 & 4. Then I would switch Bowen back to Dirk for the fourth quarter.

[ploto]

Though Bowen may see some time on Howard tonight, he's still expected to spend most of his minutes guarding Nowitzki.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/basketball/nba/spurs/stories/MYSA051306.7C.BKNspurs.notebook.2edf954.html
Key word being expected.

[ShoogarBear]

I only like 4 if Stackhouse is taking the shots. Jason Terry has beat us before from the outside (remember the Hawk losses).

However, keeping the option open to switch Bruce onto Dirk in the 4th, ala Billups and Bosh, is good.

[Rick Von Braun]

Nice ball discussion...

A tangential comment: Have you noticed the complete lack of Mavs' fans in this discussion? I guess timvp is right... Mavs' fans are the bottom part of the fan chain :rolleyes

[ShoogarBear]

If you look, Mav fans are never even viewing this thread. It overloads their three functioning synapses.

[clubalien]

What I find funny is that someone mentioned the strategy of let dirk get his and shut down everyone else. Then we had a reply of well if you do that dirk will go crazy with 60 points(obvioulsy not true), but now all a sudden it is listed as an option.

That said this is one of the better threads on spurstalk.
"Just win, baby"

[Cant_Be_Faded]

If we end up playing small ball today, we are going to get rocked.

[spurster]

I'd go primarily with Option 1. If Dirk gets his, and the Spurs can shut down the rest, then the Spurs win. Also, once the Mavs get used to watching Dirk, the Spurs can change their defense in crunch time to better control Dirk.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I just finished re-watching the first two games against the Mavericks and I must say that the chess match going on between Pop and AJ is quite interesting. The adjustments have been genius on both sides. Not since the Pop versus Phil Jackson battles have we witnessed such a well coached series after two games.

The first adjustment made was by Pop and it was before the series even started. Ever since 2000 when Dirk started to establish himself in the league, the Spurs have always switched on pick-and-rolls against the Mavs. Always. That is why you’d often see AJ matched up against Dirk, or in recent years Parker guarding Dirk.

In Game 1, Pop changed it up and that chess move devastated the Mavs’ game plan. Instead of switching on the pick-and-rolls, the Spurs utilized the defensive system that they employ against the Utah Jazz. Basically what the Spurs are doing is they are sending over a bigman to help on pick-and-rolls and the two players involved are not switching at all. What this does is it forces the point guard to drive into the lane with the bigman waiting there while the player who set the screen stays guarded throughout the play.

Why Pop did this was to make sure that Dirk didn’t get open or even get switched off onto a smaller player. Bowen would ignore the pick-and-roll and wouldn’t help at all. Instead, he’d just follow Dirk as he faded to the corner. The Spur who was guarding the player going around the screen was supposed to fight around the screen with little to no help.

That drastic change in strategy nullified the Mavs game plan in Game 1. You could see that they came into the game with the idea of isolating Dirk against the smaller defender after the pick-and-rolls. The Mavs had a series of plays developed to take advantage of that. When the Spurs changed up the strategy that they’ve used for half a decade, it caught the Mavs totally off guard.

That change in the way the Spurs guarded the pick-and-rolls was a genius adjustment and pretty much won Game 1 for the Spurs. AJ and the Mavs weren’t expecting it at all and couldn’t adjust mid-flight.

In Game 2, the Mavs were ready and they just trashed that defense. What they did, which was very, very smart, was they just stopped running any of the plays they usually run for Dirk. Instead, they concentrated on other mismatches. With Bowen on Dirk, the Mavs knew that a bigman was going to be on Josh Howard. The Mavs ran isolations and pick-and-rolls using Howard and the Spurs couldn’t stop it. Howard was just too fast for either Horry or Duncan.

The Mavs also found the weakness in the Spurs’ pick-and-roll defense -- and that was covering the point guard. What they would do is they’d space the opposite bigman and make him travel a long distance to come and help. By the time the help got there on the pick-and-rolls, the point guard was already in the paint. By then, the guard either had a layup or had an easy kick to spot-up shooter. Using Dirk as a decoy, the Mavs just attacked the Spurs right down the middle.

When the Mavs did use Dirk, they’d use him coming off of screens. Knowing that Bowen can get around any screen, the Mavs instead used twin screeners to make it impossible for Bowen to get around. They’d slow down Bowen with a guard and then the center would be there to wipe him out. And since the Spurs were told not to switch at all, Dirk would be wide open.

That game plan in Game 2 by the Mavs was gold. The Spurs couldn’t handle any of that defensively with the way they were guarding Dallas. Even if the Spurs played perfect defense (which they were far from doing), AJ had the Mavs running perfect plays to counteract it. There was no way the Spurs were winning that game.

Now heading into Game 3, the ball is in Pop’s court to adjust. The Spurs can’t use the same game plan and expect to win. Howard would continue to go off and the point guards for the Mavs would keep streaking down the lane.

What to do?

1. Switch Bowen onto Howard.
Pros: Bowen could most likely do a very good job of controlling Howard. There’s a reason why the Mavs are undefeated when Howard scores at least 20 points. If you put Bowen onto him, the Spurs could play more standard defense and would have far fewer mismatches.
Cons: Dirk could explode. You’d have to guard Dirk with either Horry or Duncan and that could get ugly. Dirk is explosive and is having his the best year of his career. You’d have to pencil in Dirk for 40 if the Spurs switch Bowen off of him.

2. Play Small Ball
Pros: I hated small ball against the Kings, but against the Mavs it actually makes some sense. I don’t love it but it could be needed to try to stop Dallas. If you keep Bowen on Dirk, going small and putting Finley or Barry on Howard could be the answer. To be sure that Howard doesn’t go off, you might have to actually start the small ball lineup.Cons: Small ball isn’t Spurs Basketball. Rebounding and blocked shots would suffer. Tim Duncan would be more likely to get into foul trouble.

3. Switch on pick-and-rolls
Pros: The Spurs know how to do this. They switched on pick-and-rolls against the Mavericks from 2000 until Game 1. In that time span, it always worked well for the Spurs. It would force Dirk to try to post-up smaller defenders and that’s something he hasn’t been great at in his career.
Cons: This could also get Dirk going. He’d spend a lot of time with players like Tony and Manu on him and he can shoot right over them. It’d also force the bigs to try to handle the point guards, which is harder since the Mavs aren’t Nash driven anymore. Since Nash wasn’t overly fast and he hurts you more passing, turning him into a scorer made sense. Now that Nash is gone, it’s more difficult to justify this scheme.

4. Make them shoot
Pros: This version of the Mavs isn’t nearly as deadly from the outside as past versions. They have some good shooters but they aren’t loaded with great shooters like they used to be. The Spurs could theoretically play the same style of defense but just back off the shooters. Make players like Josh Howard and Devin Harris beat you with their shooting ability. By sagging in the lane, the Spurs could turn the Mavs into a jump shooting team.
Cons: This one is obvious. If the Mavs hit those shots, the Spurs would be in trouble. Howard is a much improved shooter and a player like Jason Terry could become deadly from the perimeter. With the Mavs being at home, this is risky because a few shots could get the arena rocking.

Those are the four options that Pop has right now. I’m sure AJ is preparing for each of them. Honestly, I don’t know which one I prefer. Luckily they are all doable and each plan would force the Mavs to change what beat the Spurs in Game 2.

If it were up to me, I’d use option number three and make Dirk beat the Spurs while being guarded by a smaller player. He hasn’t consistently burned the Spurs yet and I’d be willing to play with that fire.

Offensively, the Spurs are fine. Tim Duncan is playing great. For the Spurs to have even more success, Tony and Manu are going to have to step up. The way AJ has the Mavs defending the three-point line, you can forget about beating them from long range. The Mavs are conceding the middle of the lane and are trying to force Tony and Manu to finish at the rim over Diop/Dampier/Mbenga. It’s a good strategy when the backcourt isn’t playing at 100%, but if Tony or Manu get on a roll, they could easily drop 30.

What I also found interesting is that AJ used Phil Jackson-like double-teams on Duncan in the first two games. He was playing him straight up early on and then sending doubles from odd angles as the game progressed. Duncan used to have trouble against that strategy but he’s handled it exceptionally well in the first two games. He’s seeing where the doubles are coming from and not having any trouble.

It still does worry me that the strategy could work and lead to a fourth quarter collapse offensively for the Spurs. I’ve seen it work when the Lakers ran it for years and there’s always a chance it could work again. AJ will let Duncan get going early and then hope that when the fourth quarter hits, Duncan gets tentative when the double-teams are coming hard and doesn’t know where to pass it and then the shooters aren’t in their normal positions and start missing.

(Oh and F AJ for using Lakers style defense against the Spurs when he was part of the meltdowns against the same exact style defense :flipoff)

Spurs fans better buckle up and be prepared for a long series. These Mavs are not going to roll over and die. They are too well coached and their coaches know too much about the Spurs’ weaknesses. Plus, players like Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard are no pushovers. These Mavs can play and it’s possible that they beat the Spurs.

Possible. But it ain’t happenin’.

Time for the Spurs and Spurs fans to sack up. The Spurs are taking on their protégé. It’s not going to be easy.

F AJ. F _allas. F Cuban. F Mav Fans.

Believe.


http://www.kossuleht.ee/duncan1playoffs2003_3.jpg

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Im Glad We Picked Our Second Best Option I Dunno About You Guys

[Solid D]

The Spurs made some very nice adjustments, figured some things out, and were in a position to win. The Spurs got a stop with 8 seconds left on Stack's shot over Manu but the Spurs didn't hustle to the ball. Bowen didn't box out Dirk and then the Spurs were called for a foul..to boot. The Spurs missed some big FTs including the late one by Manu, his only miss at the line all night, and that proved to be the difference. This could have been the Spurs win but it just didn't work out.

The Spurs playing small ball won three of the 4 quarters and they finally realized that Oberto is a decent option.

[Solid D]

The first team to four.