Zogby: Kerry 46%, W 45%, Kerry Leads (49%-44%) In Newly Registered Voters

[Nbadan]

Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: No Movement in Presidential Race; Dead-Heat Continues, Kerry, 46% - Bush, 45%; Early Indicators Show Kerry Ahead Among Newly Registered Voters (49%-44%), New Reuters/Zogby Poll Reveals


A day after the second presidential debate, Senator John Kerry and President George W. Bush remain statistically tied with Kerry holding a slight edge over Bush (46%- 45%) , according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The telephone poll of 1216 likely voters was conducted from Thursday through Saturday (October 7- 9, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: “This is so much like 2000 it's scary. Kerry's precarious lead -- if you can call it that -- remains. He leads in big cities 56% to 37%, but Bush is ahead in both the suburbs (49%-44%) and rural areas (54%-36%). The two are tied in small cities at 45%.

"There is a lot of campaigning to go. Remember that in 2000, the lead changed several times in October.”

Zogby (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=881)

[dcole50]

Meh. I've learned not to trust these polls. The margin of error is always too large. Bush will be leading next poll, then Kerry, then Bush, etc.

[Yonivore]

Meh. I've learned not to trust these polls. The margin of error is always too large. Bush will be leading next poll, then Kerry, then Bush, etc.
Not in Nbadanallah's brain.

In his world, Kerry leads all polls and, if not, they're not polls worth quoting...even if they were last week.

[Nbadan]

I have posted past Presidential Poll results before. Harris and Zogby are the most accurate polls out there..


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic challenger John Kerry (news - web sites) expanded his slight lead over President Bush (news - web sites) to three points in a tight race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Monday.

The Massachusetts senator held a 47-44 percent lead over Bush in the latest three-day tracking poll, up two points from Sunday. Bush's support dropped one point and Kerry's support rose one point in the new poll.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20041011/us_nm/campaign_poll_dc&cid=1896&ncid=2043

[Yonivore]

I have posted past Presidential Poll results before. Harris and Zogby are the most accurate polls out there..
Until they go against your candidate, of course. Then they're trash.

[Nbadan]

Until they go against your candidate, of course. Then they're trash.

Unlike Fox News, I don't interpret the news, I just report it.

[Yonivore]

Unlike Fox News, I don't interpret the news, I just report it.
Of course. That's why you mentioned the Washington Post poll that has Bush up by 5 and, it's also why you mentioned that Zogby is a partisan Demoncrat.

[Nbadan]

A partisan democrat? WTF are you smoking?

I guess the latest USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll results (10-11 Kerry up 1) are just partisan also?


Kerry/ Edwards Bush/ Cheney Nader/ Camejo Other None No opinion
Likely Voters
2004 Oct 9-10 ^ 49 48 1 * *

Registered Voters
2004 Oct 9-10 ^ 48 48 1 * 1

National Adults
2004 Oct 9-10 ^ 48 46 2 * 1

Likely Voters
2004 Oct 9-10 ^ 50 48 * * 2

USA Today (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm)

Hey Yoni, wasn't it you who was predicting that it would be a runaway for W in October? It's not happening.

[Yonivore]

Zogby wrote well-poisoning article predicting Kerry the victor about two months ago.

That doesn't speak to him being a non-partisan pollster.

And, I stand by my prediction. Bush by 10 or more points on November 2.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Oh no, Kerry is up with the margin of error in a poll, Bush should just give up.

[Nbadan]

Oh no, Kerry is up with the margin of error in a poll, Bush should just give up.

Will W give up or will members of his administration surrender?

[Marcus Bryant]

Weakend polling. Neither pollster has released much in the way of sample characteristics. Most likely the men in the sample were comprised of a larger than normal amount of elderly men. Going by the fact that Gallup shows a lower favorability rating than most polls have shown recently for Bush as well as a more positive rating for Kerry it would seem that Gallup oversampled Demos. Thus, it would be nice if they released the party registration breakdown as well as the presidential preference by the participants' gender.

Since Cheney is campaigning in New Jersey today and Bush is in New Mexico it doesn't seem like the Bush campaign believes they are truly down nationally.