Mavs<Spurs
06-03-2006, 02:47 AM
It appears that Mavs vs Heat for our NBA Finals.
I am concerned about the matchups. I hate the Mavs, but there are some good reasons to believe that the Mavs can beat the Heat. However, I think that it is slightly more likely that the Heat will win.
Things which should scare Heat fans (and/or Mavericks haters like me):
(a)The quickness and athleticism of the guards/small forwards of Dallas.
(1) Miami does not defend the perimeter well. Dallas' guards may be able to score at will on the perimeter or break down Miami's defense.
(2) Miami does not get back well on transition defense. Therefore, Dallas may get a lot of easy hoops in transition.
(3) Miami turns the ball over. This will lead to the problems associated with
(2).
(4) and most importantly, if the Dallas guards get into the paint, it is very likely that they will get Shaq in foul trouble. If that happens, Miami is finished.
(b) Dirk will be tough for Miami to defend. Haslem can guard him reasonably well, but if Dirk gets it going, then nobody can stop him. However, it may be more difficult for Dirk to score in the paint.
(c) Dallas actually probably plays better defense than the Heat. However, Miami did play better defense this series against the Pistons (although Pistons did miss a lot of open shots). Also, Mavs defense against the Suns has not been stellar.
However, Heat do have some obvious major advantages on their side.
The first advantage is so big that he is hard to miss (unless your last name is Jones and you played on the Heat last year), namely Shaq who had 28 points, 16 rebounds and 5 blocks in game 6.
Shaq vs Dampier, Diop, Mbenga (whenever he is eligible to play). That sounds like as many points as Shaq wants every game. If you foul him every time and put him on the line, you are saying that your defense is so bad that you cannot hold the Heat to a lower field goal percentage than he will shoot at the free throw line (a guess at his career free throw average = 50%). You put yourself in the penalty and give him opportunities to score every time down the court (ie instead of a turnover) . So, hack a Shaq does not seem like a very good strategy (at least most of the game) since the math does not seem to work.
Clearly, we can make the basketball game a contest between the worst free throw shooters on both teams (ala Shaq vs Ben). I will refrain from what I think of those who would force us to watch this type of game (David Stern knows that will dramatically shrink revenue- hence he will be motivated to stop this- perhaps 1 year you might be able to get away with this).
The second advantage is Wade. Other than when he was sick in game 6, he shot about 60 + % over the first 5 games. Other than game 5, Dirk was not as efficient. Wade gets to the rim against everybody. His size, strength and quickness are not matched by anybody on the Mavs roster. No one player has all 3 of these qualities to the same extent that Wade has.
Miami scores more in the paint than Dallas. Hence, Miami will shoot a higher percentage than Dallas. Shaq shoots about 60 % from the field. So, either understand and accept that Shaq will score every time or quadruple team him and leave everybody else wide open except Wade. But the other 3 unguarded players can make wide open 12 foot shots. Hence, they will score whenever they feel like it.
Now, will Shaq throw Dirk in the basket with the ball? That is the question.
smallball here on the part of Dallas is a mistake. Probably Heat can score on every possession. However, to make that absolutely certain, tell Avery to go small and see what Shaq does. Good luck with that.
Avery says that the Mavericks don't play very well or win very often when their opponents shoot over 50%. I don't think that the Mavericks have a prayer of holding the Heat below 50%.
So, those are the advantages Miami has.
My conclusion is that it is Too easy for Miami to score (not due to bad defense [I admit Dallas is a good defensive team (normally) and greatly improved] but due to the fact that there is no defense for Shaq). So, I think that Miami is a slight favorite to win it all.
Dallas fans, I am loathe to say this, but you all have a great team (that was hard to write). In my opinion, Miami's chances are 50.1 % to win it all and Dallas' chances are 49.9 % and Spurs' and Pistons' chances are 0. And to many people, equally compelling or more compelling arguments can be made (for example by you) for why Dallas is the favorite.
I still love the Spurs and I still love the Pistons!!!
Go Heat!!!
I am concerned about the matchups. I hate the Mavs, but there are some good reasons to believe that the Mavs can beat the Heat. However, I think that it is slightly more likely that the Heat will win.
Things which should scare Heat fans (and/or Mavericks haters like me):
(a)The quickness and athleticism of the guards/small forwards of Dallas.
(1) Miami does not defend the perimeter well. Dallas' guards may be able to score at will on the perimeter or break down Miami's defense.
(2) Miami does not get back well on transition defense. Therefore, Dallas may get a lot of easy hoops in transition.
(3) Miami turns the ball over. This will lead to the problems associated with
(2).
(4) and most importantly, if the Dallas guards get into the paint, it is very likely that they will get Shaq in foul trouble. If that happens, Miami is finished.
(b) Dirk will be tough for Miami to defend. Haslem can guard him reasonably well, but if Dirk gets it going, then nobody can stop him. However, it may be more difficult for Dirk to score in the paint.
(c) Dallas actually probably plays better defense than the Heat. However, Miami did play better defense this series against the Pistons (although Pistons did miss a lot of open shots). Also, Mavs defense against the Suns has not been stellar.
However, Heat do have some obvious major advantages on their side.
The first advantage is so big that he is hard to miss (unless your last name is Jones and you played on the Heat last year), namely Shaq who had 28 points, 16 rebounds and 5 blocks in game 6.
Shaq vs Dampier, Diop, Mbenga (whenever he is eligible to play). That sounds like as many points as Shaq wants every game. If you foul him every time and put him on the line, you are saying that your defense is so bad that you cannot hold the Heat to a lower field goal percentage than he will shoot at the free throw line (a guess at his career free throw average = 50%). You put yourself in the penalty and give him opportunities to score every time down the court (ie instead of a turnover) . So, hack a Shaq does not seem like a very good strategy (at least most of the game) since the math does not seem to work.
Clearly, we can make the basketball game a contest between the worst free throw shooters on both teams (ala Shaq vs Ben). I will refrain from what I think of those who would force us to watch this type of game (David Stern knows that will dramatically shrink revenue- hence he will be motivated to stop this- perhaps 1 year you might be able to get away with this).
The second advantage is Wade. Other than when he was sick in game 6, he shot about 60 + % over the first 5 games. Other than game 5, Dirk was not as efficient. Wade gets to the rim against everybody. His size, strength and quickness are not matched by anybody on the Mavs roster. No one player has all 3 of these qualities to the same extent that Wade has.
Miami scores more in the paint than Dallas. Hence, Miami will shoot a higher percentage than Dallas. Shaq shoots about 60 % from the field. So, either understand and accept that Shaq will score every time or quadruple team him and leave everybody else wide open except Wade. But the other 3 unguarded players can make wide open 12 foot shots. Hence, they will score whenever they feel like it.
Now, will Shaq throw Dirk in the basket with the ball? That is the question.
smallball here on the part of Dallas is a mistake. Probably Heat can score on every possession. However, to make that absolutely certain, tell Avery to go small and see what Shaq does. Good luck with that.
Avery says that the Mavericks don't play very well or win very often when their opponents shoot over 50%. I don't think that the Mavericks have a prayer of holding the Heat below 50%.
So, those are the advantages Miami has.
My conclusion is that it is Too easy for Miami to score (not due to bad defense [I admit Dallas is a good defensive team (normally) and greatly improved] but due to the fact that there is no defense for Shaq). So, I think that Miami is a slight favorite to win it all.
Dallas fans, I am loathe to say this, but you all have a great team (that was hard to write). In my opinion, Miami's chances are 50.1 % to win it all and Dallas' chances are 49.9 % and Spurs' and Pistons' chances are 0. And to many people, equally compelling or more compelling arguments can be made (for example by you) for why Dallas is the favorite.
I still love the Spurs and I still love the Pistons!!!
Go Heat!!!