ducks
06-07-2006, 07:23 PM
ESPN NBA Insider - 6/7/06
Chad Ford Blog:
Redick rising like a Rocket
• For Chad Ford's preview of the Top 10 players to watch at the Orlando pre-draft camp, click here.
From the NBA's perspective, one of the biggest questions of the college basketball season was this: Will J.J. Redick be a good pro?
Can college basketball's Player of the Year become an elite NBA player? Or is he little more than a sharp-shooting role player, like Kyle Korver and Steve Kerr?
Scouts have leaned toward the latter all year. Their concerns? His size for a shooting guard, his lack of athleticism, his defensive inadequacies and the one-dimensional nature of his game.
But is there a point when you overthink a guy? His success at Duke was so dominant that the question must be asked, if he can do it against the best players in college basketball every night, why can't he do it in the pros?
The early word back from workouts in places like Houston, Utah and Boston has been surprisingly positive.
Sources with all three teams have said the same thing to me. Redick is better than they thought he would be. He's tested well in the athletic drills teams take him through. His defense has been aggressive in one-on-one sessions. He's shown the ability to create and make his own shot against some of the best college players in the draft.
Even a guy who's been scouted and scouted and scouted can surprise folks.
"I'm actually not a huge believer in individual workouts," one NBA executive said. "However, I think we learned a lot about that kid and it was all good. In almost every area, including shooting, he was better than we thought. You can watch him in games and see that he can really play. But it wasn't until the workouts that you could really see that he may be able to do some of those same things against NBA athletes. He's not going to be the MVP of the league or anything. But he's going to be a good player in the league."
How good? Good enough that Redick appears to be in the conversation with the Celtics at No. 7 and in serious consideration by the Rockets at No. 8.
In my first mock draft, I put Redick at No. 8, because he appeared to be a good fit for the Rockets. With Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady getting double-teamed on a nightly basis, Redick should have plenty of wide open jumpers. No one in the draft would be better at hitting them.
But after Redick's workout, I think the Rockets see him as a kid who could eventually become the third best player on their team and as a gritty competitor who should be able to step right in and contribute. There's no question the Rockets want to be back in the playoff hunt next season. Besides Redick, Brandon Roy, who's unlikely to slip to No. 8, is probably the only guy in the draft who could play for the Rockets right now.
If the Rockets don't take Redick at No. 8, he'll likely go to either the Magic at No. 11 or the Jazz at No. 14. But until I hear differently, I think that 8 may be Redick's magic number.
• Adam Morrison had his first workout for an NBA team over the weekend. He flew to Charlotte and worked out against Memphis' Rodney Carney. A source in Charlotte said both worked out well but that it was Morrison who shined.
Why? The Bobcats wanted to see him play against a long, athletic player. The question on everyone's mind, much as with Redick, is whether he can continue to get and make his shot at the next level.
Morrison scored time and time again against Carney, prompting Carney to say after the workout, "A lot of people say, 'Oh, Adam can't go one-on-one.' Adam can go one-on-one. He is a very fierce competitor. He will make shots and is a very offensive-minded guy and will get down and score on you. I have nothing but good things to say about Adam."
From everything I'm hearing, the Bobcats were leaning toward Rudy Gay over Morrison before the workout. Do they still feel the same way now?
• The hot rumor here at the pre-draft camp is that UConn's Josh Boone decided to keep his name in the draft after receiving a promise from the New York Knicks that they'd draft him in the first round if he were still on the board.
Boone announced on Monday that he was hiring an agent and ending his college eligibility.
Remember, Knicks president Isiah Thomas gave a promise to a somewhat similar player, Arizona's Channing Frye, last season.
The Knicks have two first-round picks this year, No. 20 and No. 29.
• In our ongoing Marcus Williams weight watch, IMG trainer Joe Abunassar told us that Williams is now down to 212 and will be 210 when he weighs in at the physicals on Saturday.
Abunassar has been flying to L.A. to help train Williams and said that he's now in the best shape of his life.
"Is he the most athletic kid in the draft? No." Abunassar asked. "But he's quicker than people think. Marcus has lots of speeds and he knows when to use them. Watch him at UConn. People had trouble staying in front of him on the defensive end. He really knows how to play and when you know how to play, your game becomes more efficient and you find ways to take advantage of the defense."
High risers Johnson, Diaz impress
posted: Tuesday, June 6, 2006 | Feedback
CLEARWATER, Fla. -- Patrick O'Bryant, Cedric Simmons, Kyle Lowry and Thabo Sefolosha are high-level sleepers in the draft, as discussed in an earlier blog. O'Bryant, in fact, might merit consideration as the No. 1 pick.
The pair of prospects I saw later on Monday are also moving up in the draft -- in this case, from the second round to potentially the first round.
On Monday in Clearwater, Miami's Guillermo Diaz and Florida State's Alexander Johnson went through a pretty grueling workout with personal coach David Thorpe of the Pro Training Center.
Diaz and Johnson entered the draft as second-round picks. But after their stellar workouts all over the country, both now have an excellent shot at landing in the first round, according to NBA GMs.
Both players skipped the Orlando pre-draft camp, a sign that their agent, Jason Levian, is confident they'll be selected in the first round.
Of the two prospects, Johnson is the more intriguing. He's a 6-foot-9 power forward who's been measured in workouts with a 39-to-40 inch vertical leap.
Johnson wasn't much of a prospect at Florida State after his first two years, in large part because of his weight. After his sophomore season, he sought out Thorpe, who had done an amazing job sculpting Udonis Haslem, and asked for help.
Thorpe put him on a strict diet and training regimen, and the results were astonishing.
Johnson came into Florida State at a chiseled 225 pounds this season and looked like a completely different player.
"It was so hard," Johnson said. "I'm from the South. I grew up my whole life eating fried foods. Catfish, chicken, collard greens. Coach showed me what I should be eating. I was like, what, no collard greens?"
Johnson salivates with each word. Clearly he loves his food. But his dedication to his game and his body overcame that.
What amazed Thorpe was how completely Johnson dove into the new lifestyle.
"I spoke with him on a Friday about diet. What he should be eating and what he should avoid," Thorpe remembers. "It was a very preliminary conversation. But a few hours later, Alexander called me on the phone and said, 'Coach Thorpe, I'm at Quizno's and I want to know if I can get cheese on this sandwich.' It was at that point I knew the kid had a chance."
Johnson's weight loss has improved his perimeter game remarkably. He is much quicker, runs up and down the floor, can cut to the basket and really gets off the floor now.
His game, in many ways, now resembles that of Denver's Kenyon Martin. While Johnson doesn't have Martin's attitude, it doesn't mean that he's not tough. The kid loves to get physical and can bang.
Johnson also demonstrated a very solid jump shot for a big guy -- he showed some NBA 3-point range, and was excellent from 12-to-15 feet. He ran many of the same drills that the smaller Diaz did and showed that he can shoot off the dribble or spotting up.
He also proved to be in excellent shape. His coach ran the most grueling workout I've seen this spring, and Johnson looked like he could've gone for more.
It's not hard to see why teams are intrigued. While it's clear that Johnson still needs more polish offensively and may need to add another five to 10 pounds to play in the post in the NBA, he's one of the few athletic big men that will be available in the second half of the first round -- and he's more NBA-ready than most of the other players in the draft.
Where could he go on draft night?
The Chicago Bulls had him in for a workout and came away very impressed. They need a player like Johnson at the four and could grab him with the 16th pick if they were to opt for Brandon Roy instead of Tyrus Thomas with the second pick.
The New Jersey Nets, picking No. 22 and No. 23, might be interested in Johnson, too. They have been looking for a Martin replacement ever since he left, and Johnson looks like he'd be great in their up-tempo offense. The Cavs at No. 25 and the Suns at No. 27 are also options.
Diaz is just as impressive on the floor. He's an elite athlete who has been said to have had a 50-inch vertical in high school.
Diaz says it isn't true. "But it was close," he says with a smile.
Diaz was once one of the best young volleyball players in the world, but he switched to basketball his senior year of high school.
In the short span of three years, he's proven to be an explosive scorer at Miami. Now he's trying to prove to NBA scouts that he's got what it takes to make the next big transition -- to point guard.
As I've written before, it's very difficult to show point guard skills in a workout. Diaz showed good ball-handling and excellent quickness in the workout. When he gets to the hoop, he really flies to the basket.
More impressive in a way is his jump shot. Diaz hasn't been pegged as a great shooter in college, in large part because of a questionable shooting percentage.
His workout made clear that Diaz is a much better shooter than previously thought, and feedback from a number of NBA workouts has backed that up. The problem for Diaz at Miami was shot selection rather than shooting form. His shooting ability shouldn't be an issue at the next level.
Diaz is in fantastic shape and seems to have shed a few pounds as well. At Miami, he played on rehabbed knee all year and didn't show some of the explosiveness everyone expected. However, that problem appears to be a thing of the past. He looks like the old Diaz again.
"He's a very quiet guy, but he's the straw that stirs the drink," Thorpe said. "He's the guy who settles everything. He's got a great rapport with the other players. He's a motivator. He tries to make everyone better. He's always resolving conflicts. He's a leader. He's breathing spirit into the hearts and minds of others."
The two big issues for Diaz are position and experience. It's going to be difficult to prove to teams that he's a point guard -- a position he never played in college -- in workouts. Given that he's measuring about 6-1 in shoes, he's small for a combo guard.
Diaz was planning on playing at the pre-draft camp in Orlando to show off his handle. However, he couldn't get a promise from the pre-draft camp administrators that he would get a chance to play the point.
He might not need to.
"In our league these days, you need guys who can get to the basket, and either score a bucket or get to the foul line," one NBA GM told Insider. "You also need a kid who can step back and hit an open jumper. I think the league has evolved. Guys like Diaz couldn't have played in the league six or seven years ago. Today, I think teams need guys like Diaz."
Scouts also worry about his basketball IQ. It's not that Diaz lacks smarts, it's just that he's behind on basketball development. He's played top-level hoops for only three years.
He sometimes gets confused by complex defenses. He hasn't learned some small things, like keeping his head up when he ball-fakes and getting the ball into his shooting hand before he rises for a jumper off the dribble. Such problems can be fixed, but Diaz is less ready to contribute now than some other players in the draft.
Right now Diaz has earned very positive buzz from workouts in Phoenix, Sacramento, Minnesota and Houston. The Lakers are also fans. He's got a number of chances to land in the first round. If he slips into the second round, he's probably one of the first players off the board.
Sleepers: O'Bryant, Lowry, Thabo
posted: Tuesday, June 6, 2006 | Feedback
SARASOTA, Fla. -- Pretend for a second there were no mock drafts. No Top 100s. No consensus about which players should be candidates for the No. 1 position.
If you just sat in a gym watching prospects play, who would leap out at you?
After spending some time in the gym with LSU's Tyrus Thomas on Friday, I came away pretty convinced that Thomas is one of the best two or three prospects in the draft -- maybe the best.
Most NBA GMs agree. It's not much of reach.
However, after spending an hour in the gym Monday with Bradley's Patrick O'Bryant, I had a very similar reaction. O'Bryant looks like the kind of prospect who should be a candidate to be the No. 1 pick in the draft.
The only difference? No one has mentioned O'Bryant as a No. 1 candidate.
Let me be the first.
As I watched him work out, I had to keep asking myself, why isn't this guy getting mentioned as a potential top pick in the draft?
Physically, he reminds me a lot of a young Tyson Chandler. Similar size, body and athleticism.
The difference is that O'Bryant already looks much more polished offensively than Chandler has ever looked.
Here's the case for O'Bryant: He's a 7-footer with long arms. He has a nice frame that easily could carry another 25 or 30 pounds of muscle.
He's an excellent athlete with springy legs. He runs up and down the floor like a deer. I know that phrase is used too often to describe guys who run well. Here, I mean it more literally. The kid takes long strides, has a bounce in his step and glides effortlessly across the court -- it's truly reminiscent of how a deer runs.
Defensively, he's good. He rebounds the ball well and is an excellent shot-blocker.
His ability on the offensive end surprised me. He showed a number of post moves, including a sky hook. That's right, a sky hook.
Where'd that come from?
"My high school coach was a little old school," O'Bryant said. "He made me shoot 400 of those every practice till my arms fell off. He wanted me to be Kareem [Abdul-Jabbar]."
So why isn't the 7-0, athletic, coordinated, defensively and offensively gifted center not being mentioned as the potential No. 1 pick?
The Toronto Raptors need a center in the worst way. The Chicago Bulls sure could use one, too. The Portland Trail Blazers are in dangerous of losing Joel Przybilla, their only decent center. And what about the Atlanta Hawks? Couldn't they use another big man?
You'd think, but to date, O'Bryant hasn't worked out for any of those teams. The New Orleans Hornets, Seattle SuperSonics, Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz are the only teams that have worked him out.
I talked to the GMs of two of those teams, and both said they were impressed with O'Bryant's athleticism and size but felt he was pretty raw and needed to work on his body.
OK. Can't argue with that. The kid is raw, and he needs to hit the weight room. And he played less than half of the season at Bradley, certainly not a breeding ground for great NBA big men.
The other knock? Some NBA scouts believe O'Bryant isn't the most motivated player in the draft. Will he put in all the hard work he needs to become a great player?
All are legitimate concerns for the big guy. But I'm still asking: In a draft supposedly devoid of centers, how could this guy slip through the cracks?
It might not happen much longer. On Wednesday, O'Bryant will have an open workout at the Orlando camp for all 30 teams.
My prediction: I think at the end of the day, O'Bryant sneaks into the top five on draft night.
You want upside? No one in the draft at his height has his athleticism and skill.
Yes, he's a risk without a long track record. But in a draft supposedly void of superstar talent, O'Bryant might make teams think twice.
Here's my take on four other interesting players at IMG on Monday:
Cedric Simmons, North Carolina State: Simmons also was very impressive. So impressive that his workout raised the question, what's the big difference between him and Thomas?
Simmons is roughly an inch taller (Simmons is measuring 6-10 in shoes). He has a bigger, more muscular body (235 lbs. versus 220). He has a similarly long wingspan (7-3). Like Thomas, he's an excellent athlete.
Thomas is more polished on the perimeter. He's a better ball handler and perimeter shooter. And although both are athletic, Simmons doesn't get up the way Thomas does.
However, Simmons is more skilled on the block right now. He's more physical and has more experience.
I think the comparisons to a young Theo Ratliff are dead on. Not only does Simmons look a lot like Ratliff, but he also carries himself like him.
Simmons might never be a great offensive player, but his toughness, rebounding, shot-blocking and athleticism should keep him in the league for a long time, the same way that combo did for Ratliff.
Kyle Lowry, Villanova: Lowry is still testing the waters, although he told me Monday that he's leaning toward staying in the draft.
Lowry is built like an NFL defensive back, with huge shoulders, a thick chest and big calves. He's strong, physical and explosive. He's a blur on the floor and it's clear he's going to be a nightmare in the NBA on the defensive end.
In the type of workout I saw Monday, it was impossible to gauge his point guard skills. He did run a few drills up and down the floor throwing lobs to Simmons, but not much else. His ballhandling was excellent in some agility drills.
The one thing that stood out to me was how well Lowry shot the ball. He has had a rep as a poor shooter in college, but he looked as though he could sink his shot with ease from everywhere on the floor Monday.
I'm surprised Lowry hasn't gotten more buzz in the draft. He is a legit point guard, has NBA strength and speed, and is a great defender. Also, his jump shot is better than advertised. The 76ers, Wizards, Nets and Cavs, among other teams, could use a player like him in the backcourt.
Once he declares, expect his stock to rise.
Thabo Sefolosha, Switzerland: Sefolosha is getting a lot of buzz from international scouts, who claim he's one of the sleepers in the draft.
After watching him work out Monday, I can see why. He's a prototypical small forward in the pros. He's somewhere between 6-7 and 6-8 with a huge wingspan (I swear his fingertips were touching the tops of his knees) and good athleticism.
His body type reminded me a little of the Pistons' Richard Hamilton. He's thin, but not too thin.
Sefolosha has earned a rep in Europe as a guy who does nothing great but everything well. That's what he showed Monday, as well.
He shot the ball very well from midrange all the way out to the NBA 3-point line. He was a little streaky at times with the long ball, but that's to be expected considering he started shooting from that far away only two days ago.
He's a very smooth player with an excellent handle and good court vision. He flies up and down the floor, uses his feet well and can really defend.
"I think the kid has the potential to be a Boris Diaw-type player down the road," one NBA international scout told me. "He's really got all the tools. He's not a huge scorer, but all the little things he does don't show up on the box score."
Look for Sefolosha to start getting attention from the Warriors at No. 9, the Hornets at No. 15, the Kings at No. 19, the Nets at No. 23, the Cavs at No. 25 and the Lakers at No. 26.
Darius Washington, Memphis: There isn't a lot to add about Washington after his workout Monday.
He obviously has an NBA-ready body and is very quick. He also knows how to score, both off the dribble and with the jump shot.
Washington also looked as though he had lost some weight and was in great playing condition.
The problem is that very few teams in the NBA believe he's a point guard. He has too much of a scoring mentality for the taste of many scouts. A mere workout can't change that impression.
He'll try to answer those questions when he plays in Orlando at the predraft camp. If he can change minds, he could sneak into the first round. If he can't, it isn't out of the question that he could slip out of the draft altogether.
Orlando update and false promises
posted: Friday, June 2, 2006 | Feedback
GMs are already grumbling about the quality of this year's Orlando camp. Official invites went out late last week, but a surprising number of bubble first-rounders are choosing not to participate this year.
While prospects still have a week to change their minds, at the moment it appears that Shannon Brown, Paul Davis, Guillermo Diaz, Alexander Johnson, Quincy Douby, Richard Roby, Dee Brown and Mike Gansey are all skipping the camp.
The feedback Shannon Brown has been getting from teams puts him solidly in the first round. He could go as high as No. 14 to the Jazz and is unlikely to slip past No. 26 to the Lakers. The Pacers at No. 17, the Kings at No. 19 and the Knicks at No. 20 are also possibilities.
Speaking of the Knicks and Brown, it appears that my source in New York may have fed me a bit of misinformation about him. Another source claims that Brown played very well in the workout -- so well that the Knicks decided to leak a little bad info. Too bad for Shannon -- as I said Thursday, the Knicks are not a great fit.
Johnson also has gotten strong feedback from his workouts, and it looks like he's got a great shot at going in Round 1. He's worked out well for the Nets, Bulls, Nuggets and Sonics. He's a legit possibility at No. 16 to Chicago and at No. 22 or No. 23 to the Nets.
Douby has the talent of a first-rounder and has been doing a lot of workouts to generally positive reviews. There are rumors he already has a first-round promise (see the next item below), but I have my doubts.
Diaz has been impressive in workouts, and there are a few teams that might draft him (starting with the Kings at No. 19 and the Lakers at No. 26). However, if a few things don't go his way, he could slip.
Dee Brown isn't a likely first-rounder at this point. However, given the serious injury he suffered at the camp last year, you can understand why he wouldn't want to risk injury again.
It seems that Davis, Roby and Gansey could help their stock by playing, which makes their decisions to skip the camp a little more puzzling.
Davis is the type of player who looks much better in a five-on-five game than he does in a workout. Roby and Gansey are just bubble guys at the moment.
So who is going to be there? There is no official list yet, but after talking to agents for a number of players, here's a look at who could be in:
James Augustine, Will Blalock, Curtis Stinson, Bobby Brown, Allan Ray, Denham Brown, Arron Afflalo, Steve Novak and Brad Newley.
Two other underclassmen who have not hired agents, UCLA's Jordan Farmar and UConn's Josh Boone, are still considering their options. I have my doubts that either will play.
Farmar is solidly in the first round. Boone may have been disappointing in a group workout in Chicago but seems to have found a team, the Knicks, willing to draft him in the first round. Multiple sources claim that both New York and New Jersey are seriously looking at taking him in the early 20s. If that's true, you can bet he'll skip Orlando and use a strained shoulder as the excuse.
• It's about this time of year that we start hearing rumors about promises or draft guarantees. Every year one or two of them turn out to be real. Most are bogus.
The first two players to get mentioned as possibly having guarantees are Rutgers guard Quincy Douby and Ukrainian forward Olexsiy Pecherov.
Pecherov's agent, Steve Heumann, told me on the phone that Pecherov does not have a deal in place.
"He's flying over to the U.S. and is starting individual workouts with teams," Heumann said. As Heumann pointed out, the fact that he's working out for several teams is an indication that no deal has been made.
Heumann's partner, Marc Fleisher, said they did have a place for Pecherov. "We do have a team who drafts later in the first round who wanted to shut him down," Fleisher said. "So I think I know the team he won't get past. But we felt like he's got the potential to go much higher once teams see him work out."
Fleisher, you may remember, represented Russian Yaroslav Korolev last spring. Korolev received a promise from the Clippers in May and was drafted No. 12 by L.A., as promised.
As for Douby, the rumor is that he hired an agent after receiving a promise from the Bulls at No. 16.
If that's true, why is he still working out for teams? Douby has more workouts scheduled the next few weeks, for teams both ahead of and below the Bulls. So it looks like this "promise" is bogus too.
• In an effort to get the latest and best info out, here is an update on Marcus Williams, formerly of UConn; at his workout in Houston on Tuesday, Williams weighed in at 215 pounds.
Last week I reported that Williams had weighed in at 220 for a workout in Boston. So, in the course of a week he's already shed five pounds.
The general consensus on the workout in Houston that also featured Mardy Collins and Guillermo Diaz was that everyone played well.
The weight issue for Williams might not be an issue after all.
At UConn, Williams was listed at 205, but three NBA execs said they think that was an underestimate. According to these sources, he was probably closer to 215 in college and still very effective. So, according to two of the executives, his weight really isn't much of an issue. Furthermore, as he continues to work out, his weight will probably get closer and closer to his ideal playing weight, they said.
"Would we like his body to be better? Sure," one NBA executive said. "But the guy is the smartest player in the draft. He knows how to play basketball. That's what you want in a point guard. The conditioning will get much better once he's in an NBA system. People were worried about the same thing with Deron Williams and Carmelo Anthony, and it turned into a nonissue. The kid has a chance to be special."
• We told you last week that Adam Morrison was working out for four teams. Here's his schedule: Charlotte on June 6, Portland on June 15, Chicago on June 19 and Toronto on June 21. Morrison will reserve the last week for workouts for any teams that might move up in the draft.
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Updated: June 7, 2006, 2:39 PM ET
10 to watch at the Orlando NBA pre-draft camp
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By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
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ORLANDO, Fla. -- The first-ever Orlando pre-draft camp opened on Tuesday to a chorus of boos from NBA executives.
Many at the Milkhouse here at Disney's Wide World of Sports called it the worst pre-draft camp ever.
Jordan Farmar
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Farmar is trying to ice his first-round status with good play in Orlando.
Why the dour faces?
Moving the event from GM-friendly Chicago to kid-friendly Orlando was a major topic of conversation. But what really bothered them was a perceived lack of talent here.
Of the 62 players here, only one, UCLA's Jordan Farmar, is rated as a first-rounder in Insider's Mock Draft.
And 15 players ranked No. 31 or lower in Insider's Top 100 chose not to play.
Two players, Texas' Daniel Gibson and Cal's Leon Powe, pulled out of the camp on Tuesday.
Thirteen other players not currently ranked by Insider as first-rounders also took a pass. They include Pittsburgh's Aaron Gray, Colorado's Richard Roby, UConn's Josh Boone, Cincinnati's James White, Michigan State's Paul Davis, West Virginia's Mike Gansey, Illinois' Dee Brown, Nevada's Nick Fazekas, Arizona's Hassan Adams, UCLA's Arron Afflalo, UCLA's Ryan Hollins and West Virginia's Kevin Pittsnogle.
Another, Texas' P.J. Tucker, was unable to play because of injury. Add in a number of international players who are elsewhere because of team commitments or visa issues, along with the 30 players ranked in the first round, and there are roughly 50 draft-eligible players who aren't playing in Orlando.
That leaves about 10 draft spots for the 62 players who are here.
The lack of talent at the camp led to some frank dialogue among executives at the league's competition meeting here on Monday. Several executives told Insider that there was discussion about potentially dumping the draft camps altogether because of the number of top players who refuse to play in them.
Other executives argued that NBA teams should do away with individual workouts, forcing prospects to play in front of everyone if they want to be drafted. Others argued for the elimination of private workouts, meaning that any team that has a workout must notify and invite every other team in the league to attend.
"The system is broken," one NBA GM told Insider. "We've got to do something. No decisions were made because, frankly, no one can agree how to fix it. The only thing we agree on is that the system as it stands is broken."
Don't buy into all of the pessimism, however. There are a number of players here who could make a NBA roster.
It speaks to the depth of this year's draft that, even with 50 players not here, I could easily come up with 10 players who could work their way up the draft charts with a great camp and another 20 who could be second rounders.
Who will NBA GMs be watching? Insider polled a dozen executives to get the names of the players they're most interested in.
Jordan Farmar, PG, UCLA
Not only is Farmar the best prospect in the camp, he's the best one to play in a pre-draft camp in a while.
Farmar is a pure point guard who led UCLA to the NCAA championship game. He's ranked by many NBA teams as the second- or third-best point guard in the draft.
So why is he here? Because he's still unsure whether he's staying in the draft and wants to get all the information he can. If he plays well (scouts want to see him shoot the ball better and defend), he could move himself up the draft board. If he stinks, he'll be able to return to UCLA and work on his game. Either way, Farmar wins.
James Augustine, PF, Illinois
In a draft devoid of athletic bigs outside of the lottery, Augustine will be watched closely by executives. His numbers were never impressive at Illinois, but he always was overshadowed by Illinois' fantastic guards. The same thing could happen here in Orlando -- big men rarely fare well here because the guards dominate the ball. However, if he can show a little offense to go along with his nonstop motor and excellent athleticism, he could rise.
Will Blalock, PG, Iowa State
I've been slowly warming to Blalock all year, but it wasn't until last week at a workout in Chicago that I came away convinced that he could be an NBA player. Blalock has the right combination of court vision, athleticism, offensive skills and length to be a good point guard in the pros. And he really can defend. He could have a Luther Head-type rise if he plays well.
Bobby Brown, G, Cal-State Fullerton
Brown is in a similar situation to Blalock's. He is athletic, can score the ball and should look great in these types of showcases. Several teams already have come away impressed with his workouts. If he can show teams here that he's a true point guard, and not just a two guard in a point guard's body, he, too, has a shot of sneaking into the first round.
Paul Millsap, PF, Louisiana Tech
The guy led the NCAA in rebounding for three straight years, so why aren't more NBA people impressed? The early reports from his workouts were that he was not in great shape and he struggled. He also is going to measure short and isn't the best athlete in the world.
However, when Millsap is on, he's got the chance to be, at the very least, a Reggie Evans-type of player in the pros. All he needs to do is gather a ton of rebounds against the better competition here in camp and the buzz will follow.
Allan Ray, SG, Villanova
Next to Farmar, Ray might be the best player here. He's a very good shooter and an excellent athlete who can score off the dribble. He's undersized to play the two in the pros, but with the new rule changes, we're starting to see players like Ray excel. If he can show a good handle and good shot selection here, he'll get some buzz.
Darius Washington, G, Memphis
Washington was once ranked as the second-best high school point guard in the country behind Sebastian Telfair. However, after two solid seasons for Memphis, his stock actually has dropped.
Washington is strong, quick and athletic and he knows how to score. However, scouts see him as a 6-1 shooting guard, the second coming of Dajuan Wagner. He's going to have to resist the urge to drop 25 on one of these teams and settle for a few 10-assist games if he wants to move up.
Brad Newley, SG, Australia
Newley is a big-time scorer from Australia who won the NBL All-Star MVP award his rookie year. He's a good shooter, but what will surprise some people is his toughness and his ability to get to the basket. The big question for Newley -- how will he adjust to the speed and athleticism in the U.S. game?
Taj Gray, PF, Oklahoma State
Gray was pegged as a potential first-round prospect for most of the year. He's a good athlete who plays a coveted position.
His biggest problem? Scouts expected him to be a lot more dominant than he ended up being this season. His numbers actually slipped a little bit from those of his junior season.
Still, if Florida State's Alexander Johnson is getting first-round buzz, why can't Gray get some? His measurements might mean a lot more than how he plays on the floor.
Curtis Stinson, G, Iowa State
The guy had a great year. His scoring and assists were both impressive, but not impressive enough to convince scouts that he's a point guard at the next level. If he gets to play point here (unfortunately, he's been placed on the same roster with former teammate Blalock and another hot shot point guard, Gerry McNamara), he could really help his stock. But right now, it looks like he'll be stuck at the two. Sometimes you have to wonder what the camp organizers are thinking. Every NBA guy in the gym wants to see Stinson at the one.
Others to watch: Solomon Jones, F/C, South Florida; Steven Smith, SF, LaSalle; Marcus Slaughter, F, San Diego State; Pops Mensah-Bonsu, F, George Washington; Steve Novak, F, Marquette; David Noel, F, North Carolina; Morris Almond, G/F, Rice; Eric Hicks, F, Cincinnati; Dwyane Mitchell, G, Louisiana-Lafayette; Matt Haryasz, F, Stanford; Renaldo Balkman, F, South Carolina; Tedric Hill, F, Gulf Coast CC; Chris Quinn, PG, Notre Dame; Louis Amundson, F, UNLV; Bobby Jones, F, Washington; Viktor Keirou, G, Russia; Sean Dockery, G, Duke; Brandon Bowman, F, Georgetown; Denham Brown, G/F, UConn; Rashad Anderson, G, UConn; Daniel Horton, G, Michigan; J.P. Batista, F/C, Gonzaga
Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.
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Chris Broussard Blog:
The Heat just won't be beat
posted: Wednesday, June 7, 2006 | Feedback
I could easily make a case on paper for the Dallas Mavericks to beat Miami and win the NBA title.
I could point to their two thrashings of the Heat -- one by 13, one by 36 -- in the regular season.
I could point to their two big men -- DeSagana Diop and Erick Dampier -- who, while not world-beaters, have the size, defensive ability and 12 fouls to at least get in Shaq's way.
I could point out that their two quick and aggressive point guards, Jason Terry and Devin Harris, could have field days against Miami's perimeter defense. Detroit couldn't exploit that because Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton aren't slashers, but Harris will be at the rim aplenty (at least until Shaq or Zo puts him on his rump).
And, of course, I could point to Dirk Nowitzki, who is basically unguardable.
I admit that, on paper, there are reasons to believe Dallas will prevail.
But basketball is not played on paper. It's certainly not played in newspapers, where reporters always give us the obligatory matchup comparison in which the team that accumulates the most checkmarks is the supposed winner.
There are intangibles that factor into the outcome of basketball games and series. So as far as I'm concerned, folks can make like D-Wade on a breakaway and stuff their stats and their matchups and their theories.
I felt the same way when Phoenix faced the L.A. Clippers. I could have talked for hours about how the Clippers were equipped to beat the Suns, how they had the formula to destroy Phoenix. Heck, if Kwame Brown and Lamar Odom did damage inside, what would Elton Brand and Chris Kaman do?
Plus, the Clips had the savvy, veteran leadership of Sam Cassell, the slicing scoring of Corey Maggette, the outside shooting of Cuttino Mobley and Vladimir Radmanovic¸ and one of the best defenses in the league. They could play fast, play slow and play defense.
On paper, it was L.A. all the way.
But I had a feeling, a notion, something speaking to my heart, that told me Phoenix would win. So I picked the Suns in seven, and Voilà!
Well, that sneaking suspicion, that voice inside me, is back, and it's telling me to go with Miami in six.
Shaq's going to go crazy, especially against his favorite punch line, Dampier. D-Wade's going to go wild. 'Zo is going to contribute. J-Will will hit 3s. James Posey will be a defensive spark and drop some triples, as well. Antoine Walker will make 3s and plays at just the right time. Haslem will continue to be Pat Riley's black Kurt Rambis.
Heading into this season, there were only two questions about Miami: Will Shaq be healthy come playoff time, and will the Heat ever get all those egos on the same page? No one with a measurable hoops IQ questioned their talent because everyone knew Miami was loaded.
Well, both questions have been answered in the affirmative. Shaq is playing his best ball in two years, and the Heat are clicking at just the right time.
So nobody's beating them. Period.
I've heard a lot the past two weeks about what was wrong with Detroit. Admittedly, the Pistons did not play well, but when Miami's on top of its game (which it is), it's simply a better team than Detroit. So the Heat did not advance because the Pistons fell apart. They advanced because they're better. Pure and simple.
And they're better than Dallas, as well.
Put stock in the regular-season routs if you like, but do so at your own peril. Miami was just 2-12 against all division winners this season, including just 2-6 against New Jersey and Detroit. Yet the Heat whipped both in the playoffs.
This is a different Heat team from the one that worked out the kinks from November to March. Walker has settled in as the third option, forgetting about being a star and simply filling his role.
And I, for one, am tired of people sleeping on the dude. Folks act as if he's just a gunner, a scrub. Have you forgotten how he led Boston deep into the playoffs a few years back, and how he resurrected the Celtics after being traded from Atlanta last season. Walker is an All-Star-caliber player who can not only hit the 3 but also make great basketball plays by driving and dishing and rebounding.
Perhaps most important, he's giving 100 percent effort defensively for probably the first time in his career. He's still far from a solid defender, but his effort and energy are making up for many of his deficiencies on that end of the floor.
And speaking of that end of the floor, Shaq also is putting forth more effort than usual. He's guarding pick-and-rolls correctly about half the time, a huge increase for the Diesel.
Like the rest of the Heat players, those two have been motivated and inspired by Riley.
Beyond that, Shaq, 'Zo and G.P. are thoroughly psyched about getting the opportunity to win it all, so they're not about to let anyone in that locker room slack off or get out of line.
Strategically, Miami can win whether the pace is fast or slow. Folks who think the Heat can't run fail to realize they ranked sixth in the league in points per game (99.9) this season -- and that was when they weren't at their best.
The Mavericks -- for all those who think they're going to run Miami off the court -- actually scored less than the Heat, averaging just 99.1 ppg.
And Dallas' much improved defense? Yeah, it's 15 times better than the Charmin style the Mavs played for the past decade, but it is by no means stellar.
Dallas has no answer for Dwyane Wade. Trust me, Josh Howard can't hold him.
And look for Riley to tinker with the Heat offense if Diop and Dampier try to front Shaq in the post, as they often did with Tim Duncan.
Whenever one of the Mavs centers got on Duncan's hip and began to front, Ginobili, Parker or whoever had the ball on the wing drove baseline and got to the rim because the big man was no longer in position to cut him off at the baseline.
I'm sure Riley has recognized that and will tell Wade and Jason Williams to drive baseline whenever that happens. That will only make Wade even more unstoppable.
If all that's not enough to convince you, it might be as simple as this: There are three superstars on the court who are head and shoulders above everybody else, and two of them play for Miami.
Jump on the Mavericks' bandwagon if you like. Chalk the Heat's E.C. title up to Detroit's foibles if you will. Sleep on the Heat's supporting cast if you want.
But at the end of this series, you'll be saluting Miami, and screaming, "Dang, that Broussard sure knows his stuff."
Chad Ford Blog:
Redick rising like a Rocket
• For Chad Ford's preview of the Top 10 players to watch at the Orlando pre-draft camp, click here.
From the NBA's perspective, one of the biggest questions of the college basketball season was this: Will J.J. Redick be a good pro?
Can college basketball's Player of the Year become an elite NBA player? Or is he little more than a sharp-shooting role player, like Kyle Korver and Steve Kerr?
Scouts have leaned toward the latter all year. Their concerns? His size for a shooting guard, his lack of athleticism, his defensive inadequacies and the one-dimensional nature of his game.
But is there a point when you overthink a guy? His success at Duke was so dominant that the question must be asked, if he can do it against the best players in college basketball every night, why can't he do it in the pros?
The early word back from workouts in places like Houston, Utah and Boston has been surprisingly positive.
Sources with all three teams have said the same thing to me. Redick is better than they thought he would be. He's tested well in the athletic drills teams take him through. His defense has been aggressive in one-on-one sessions. He's shown the ability to create and make his own shot against some of the best college players in the draft.
Even a guy who's been scouted and scouted and scouted can surprise folks.
"I'm actually not a huge believer in individual workouts," one NBA executive said. "However, I think we learned a lot about that kid and it was all good. In almost every area, including shooting, he was better than we thought. You can watch him in games and see that he can really play. But it wasn't until the workouts that you could really see that he may be able to do some of those same things against NBA athletes. He's not going to be the MVP of the league or anything. But he's going to be a good player in the league."
How good? Good enough that Redick appears to be in the conversation with the Celtics at No. 7 and in serious consideration by the Rockets at No. 8.
In my first mock draft, I put Redick at No. 8, because he appeared to be a good fit for the Rockets. With Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady getting double-teamed on a nightly basis, Redick should have plenty of wide open jumpers. No one in the draft would be better at hitting them.
But after Redick's workout, I think the Rockets see him as a kid who could eventually become the third best player on their team and as a gritty competitor who should be able to step right in and contribute. There's no question the Rockets want to be back in the playoff hunt next season. Besides Redick, Brandon Roy, who's unlikely to slip to No. 8, is probably the only guy in the draft who could play for the Rockets right now.
If the Rockets don't take Redick at No. 8, he'll likely go to either the Magic at No. 11 or the Jazz at No. 14. But until I hear differently, I think that 8 may be Redick's magic number.
• Adam Morrison had his first workout for an NBA team over the weekend. He flew to Charlotte and worked out against Memphis' Rodney Carney. A source in Charlotte said both worked out well but that it was Morrison who shined.
Why? The Bobcats wanted to see him play against a long, athletic player. The question on everyone's mind, much as with Redick, is whether he can continue to get and make his shot at the next level.
Morrison scored time and time again against Carney, prompting Carney to say after the workout, "A lot of people say, 'Oh, Adam can't go one-on-one.' Adam can go one-on-one. He is a very fierce competitor. He will make shots and is a very offensive-minded guy and will get down and score on you. I have nothing but good things to say about Adam."
From everything I'm hearing, the Bobcats were leaning toward Rudy Gay over Morrison before the workout. Do they still feel the same way now?
• The hot rumor here at the pre-draft camp is that UConn's Josh Boone decided to keep his name in the draft after receiving a promise from the New York Knicks that they'd draft him in the first round if he were still on the board.
Boone announced on Monday that he was hiring an agent and ending his college eligibility.
Remember, Knicks president Isiah Thomas gave a promise to a somewhat similar player, Arizona's Channing Frye, last season.
The Knicks have two first-round picks this year, No. 20 and No. 29.
• In our ongoing Marcus Williams weight watch, IMG trainer Joe Abunassar told us that Williams is now down to 212 and will be 210 when he weighs in at the physicals on Saturday.
Abunassar has been flying to L.A. to help train Williams and said that he's now in the best shape of his life.
"Is he the most athletic kid in the draft? No." Abunassar asked. "But he's quicker than people think. Marcus has lots of speeds and he knows when to use them. Watch him at UConn. People had trouble staying in front of him on the defensive end. He really knows how to play and when you know how to play, your game becomes more efficient and you find ways to take advantage of the defense."
High risers Johnson, Diaz impress
posted: Tuesday, June 6, 2006 | Feedback
CLEARWATER, Fla. -- Patrick O'Bryant, Cedric Simmons, Kyle Lowry and Thabo Sefolosha are high-level sleepers in the draft, as discussed in an earlier blog. O'Bryant, in fact, might merit consideration as the No. 1 pick.
The pair of prospects I saw later on Monday are also moving up in the draft -- in this case, from the second round to potentially the first round.
On Monday in Clearwater, Miami's Guillermo Diaz and Florida State's Alexander Johnson went through a pretty grueling workout with personal coach David Thorpe of the Pro Training Center.
Diaz and Johnson entered the draft as second-round picks. But after their stellar workouts all over the country, both now have an excellent shot at landing in the first round, according to NBA GMs.
Both players skipped the Orlando pre-draft camp, a sign that their agent, Jason Levian, is confident they'll be selected in the first round.
Of the two prospects, Johnson is the more intriguing. He's a 6-foot-9 power forward who's been measured in workouts with a 39-to-40 inch vertical leap.
Johnson wasn't much of a prospect at Florida State after his first two years, in large part because of his weight. After his sophomore season, he sought out Thorpe, who had done an amazing job sculpting Udonis Haslem, and asked for help.
Thorpe put him on a strict diet and training regimen, and the results were astonishing.
Johnson came into Florida State at a chiseled 225 pounds this season and looked like a completely different player.
"It was so hard," Johnson said. "I'm from the South. I grew up my whole life eating fried foods. Catfish, chicken, collard greens. Coach showed me what I should be eating. I was like, what, no collard greens?"
Johnson salivates with each word. Clearly he loves his food. But his dedication to his game and his body overcame that.
What amazed Thorpe was how completely Johnson dove into the new lifestyle.
"I spoke with him on a Friday about diet. What he should be eating and what he should avoid," Thorpe remembers. "It was a very preliminary conversation. But a few hours later, Alexander called me on the phone and said, 'Coach Thorpe, I'm at Quizno's and I want to know if I can get cheese on this sandwich.' It was at that point I knew the kid had a chance."
Johnson's weight loss has improved his perimeter game remarkably. He is much quicker, runs up and down the floor, can cut to the basket and really gets off the floor now.
His game, in many ways, now resembles that of Denver's Kenyon Martin. While Johnson doesn't have Martin's attitude, it doesn't mean that he's not tough. The kid loves to get physical and can bang.
Johnson also demonstrated a very solid jump shot for a big guy -- he showed some NBA 3-point range, and was excellent from 12-to-15 feet. He ran many of the same drills that the smaller Diaz did and showed that he can shoot off the dribble or spotting up.
He also proved to be in excellent shape. His coach ran the most grueling workout I've seen this spring, and Johnson looked like he could've gone for more.
It's not hard to see why teams are intrigued. While it's clear that Johnson still needs more polish offensively and may need to add another five to 10 pounds to play in the post in the NBA, he's one of the few athletic big men that will be available in the second half of the first round -- and he's more NBA-ready than most of the other players in the draft.
Where could he go on draft night?
The Chicago Bulls had him in for a workout and came away very impressed. They need a player like Johnson at the four and could grab him with the 16th pick if they were to opt for Brandon Roy instead of Tyrus Thomas with the second pick.
The New Jersey Nets, picking No. 22 and No. 23, might be interested in Johnson, too. They have been looking for a Martin replacement ever since he left, and Johnson looks like he'd be great in their up-tempo offense. The Cavs at No. 25 and the Suns at No. 27 are also options.
Diaz is just as impressive on the floor. He's an elite athlete who has been said to have had a 50-inch vertical in high school.
Diaz says it isn't true. "But it was close," he says with a smile.
Diaz was once one of the best young volleyball players in the world, but he switched to basketball his senior year of high school.
In the short span of three years, he's proven to be an explosive scorer at Miami. Now he's trying to prove to NBA scouts that he's got what it takes to make the next big transition -- to point guard.
As I've written before, it's very difficult to show point guard skills in a workout. Diaz showed good ball-handling and excellent quickness in the workout. When he gets to the hoop, he really flies to the basket.
More impressive in a way is his jump shot. Diaz hasn't been pegged as a great shooter in college, in large part because of a questionable shooting percentage.
His workout made clear that Diaz is a much better shooter than previously thought, and feedback from a number of NBA workouts has backed that up. The problem for Diaz at Miami was shot selection rather than shooting form. His shooting ability shouldn't be an issue at the next level.
Diaz is in fantastic shape and seems to have shed a few pounds as well. At Miami, he played on rehabbed knee all year and didn't show some of the explosiveness everyone expected. However, that problem appears to be a thing of the past. He looks like the old Diaz again.
"He's a very quiet guy, but he's the straw that stirs the drink," Thorpe said. "He's the guy who settles everything. He's got a great rapport with the other players. He's a motivator. He tries to make everyone better. He's always resolving conflicts. He's a leader. He's breathing spirit into the hearts and minds of others."
The two big issues for Diaz are position and experience. It's going to be difficult to prove to teams that he's a point guard -- a position he never played in college -- in workouts. Given that he's measuring about 6-1 in shoes, he's small for a combo guard.
Diaz was planning on playing at the pre-draft camp in Orlando to show off his handle. However, he couldn't get a promise from the pre-draft camp administrators that he would get a chance to play the point.
He might not need to.
"In our league these days, you need guys who can get to the basket, and either score a bucket or get to the foul line," one NBA GM told Insider. "You also need a kid who can step back and hit an open jumper. I think the league has evolved. Guys like Diaz couldn't have played in the league six or seven years ago. Today, I think teams need guys like Diaz."
Scouts also worry about his basketball IQ. It's not that Diaz lacks smarts, it's just that he's behind on basketball development. He's played top-level hoops for only three years.
He sometimes gets confused by complex defenses. He hasn't learned some small things, like keeping his head up when he ball-fakes and getting the ball into his shooting hand before he rises for a jumper off the dribble. Such problems can be fixed, but Diaz is less ready to contribute now than some other players in the draft.
Right now Diaz has earned very positive buzz from workouts in Phoenix, Sacramento, Minnesota and Houston. The Lakers are also fans. He's got a number of chances to land in the first round. If he slips into the second round, he's probably one of the first players off the board.
Sleepers: O'Bryant, Lowry, Thabo
posted: Tuesday, June 6, 2006 | Feedback
SARASOTA, Fla. -- Pretend for a second there were no mock drafts. No Top 100s. No consensus about which players should be candidates for the No. 1 position.
If you just sat in a gym watching prospects play, who would leap out at you?
After spending some time in the gym with LSU's Tyrus Thomas on Friday, I came away pretty convinced that Thomas is one of the best two or three prospects in the draft -- maybe the best.
Most NBA GMs agree. It's not much of reach.
However, after spending an hour in the gym Monday with Bradley's Patrick O'Bryant, I had a very similar reaction. O'Bryant looks like the kind of prospect who should be a candidate to be the No. 1 pick in the draft.
The only difference? No one has mentioned O'Bryant as a No. 1 candidate.
Let me be the first.
As I watched him work out, I had to keep asking myself, why isn't this guy getting mentioned as a potential top pick in the draft?
Physically, he reminds me a lot of a young Tyson Chandler. Similar size, body and athleticism.
The difference is that O'Bryant already looks much more polished offensively than Chandler has ever looked.
Here's the case for O'Bryant: He's a 7-footer with long arms. He has a nice frame that easily could carry another 25 or 30 pounds of muscle.
He's an excellent athlete with springy legs. He runs up and down the floor like a deer. I know that phrase is used too often to describe guys who run well. Here, I mean it more literally. The kid takes long strides, has a bounce in his step and glides effortlessly across the court -- it's truly reminiscent of how a deer runs.
Defensively, he's good. He rebounds the ball well and is an excellent shot-blocker.
His ability on the offensive end surprised me. He showed a number of post moves, including a sky hook. That's right, a sky hook.
Where'd that come from?
"My high school coach was a little old school," O'Bryant said. "He made me shoot 400 of those every practice till my arms fell off. He wanted me to be Kareem [Abdul-Jabbar]."
So why isn't the 7-0, athletic, coordinated, defensively and offensively gifted center not being mentioned as the potential No. 1 pick?
The Toronto Raptors need a center in the worst way. The Chicago Bulls sure could use one, too. The Portland Trail Blazers are in dangerous of losing Joel Przybilla, their only decent center. And what about the Atlanta Hawks? Couldn't they use another big man?
You'd think, but to date, O'Bryant hasn't worked out for any of those teams. The New Orleans Hornets, Seattle SuperSonics, Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz are the only teams that have worked him out.
I talked to the GMs of two of those teams, and both said they were impressed with O'Bryant's athleticism and size but felt he was pretty raw and needed to work on his body.
OK. Can't argue with that. The kid is raw, and he needs to hit the weight room. And he played less than half of the season at Bradley, certainly not a breeding ground for great NBA big men.
The other knock? Some NBA scouts believe O'Bryant isn't the most motivated player in the draft. Will he put in all the hard work he needs to become a great player?
All are legitimate concerns for the big guy. But I'm still asking: In a draft supposedly devoid of centers, how could this guy slip through the cracks?
It might not happen much longer. On Wednesday, O'Bryant will have an open workout at the Orlando camp for all 30 teams.
My prediction: I think at the end of the day, O'Bryant sneaks into the top five on draft night.
You want upside? No one in the draft at his height has his athleticism and skill.
Yes, he's a risk without a long track record. But in a draft supposedly void of superstar talent, O'Bryant might make teams think twice.
Here's my take on four other interesting players at IMG on Monday:
Cedric Simmons, North Carolina State: Simmons also was very impressive. So impressive that his workout raised the question, what's the big difference between him and Thomas?
Simmons is roughly an inch taller (Simmons is measuring 6-10 in shoes). He has a bigger, more muscular body (235 lbs. versus 220). He has a similarly long wingspan (7-3). Like Thomas, he's an excellent athlete.
Thomas is more polished on the perimeter. He's a better ball handler and perimeter shooter. And although both are athletic, Simmons doesn't get up the way Thomas does.
However, Simmons is more skilled on the block right now. He's more physical and has more experience.
I think the comparisons to a young Theo Ratliff are dead on. Not only does Simmons look a lot like Ratliff, but he also carries himself like him.
Simmons might never be a great offensive player, but his toughness, rebounding, shot-blocking and athleticism should keep him in the league for a long time, the same way that combo did for Ratliff.
Kyle Lowry, Villanova: Lowry is still testing the waters, although he told me Monday that he's leaning toward staying in the draft.
Lowry is built like an NFL defensive back, with huge shoulders, a thick chest and big calves. He's strong, physical and explosive. He's a blur on the floor and it's clear he's going to be a nightmare in the NBA on the defensive end.
In the type of workout I saw Monday, it was impossible to gauge his point guard skills. He did run a few drills up and down the floor throwing lobs to Simmons, but not much else. His ballhandling was excellent in some agility drills.
The one thing that stood out to me was how well Lowry shot the ball. He has had a rep as a poor shooter in college, but he looked as though he could sink his shot with ease from everywhere on the floor Monday.
I'm surprised Lowry hasn't gotten more buzz in the draft. He is a legit point guard, has NBA strength and speed, and is a great defender. Also, his jump shot is better than advertised. The 76ers, Wizards, Nets and Cavs, among other teams, could use a player like him in the backcourt.
Once he declares, expect his stock to rise.
Thabo Sefolosha, Switzerland: Sefolosha is getting a lot of buzz from international scouts, who claim he's one of the sleepers in the draft.
After watching him work out Monday, I can see why. He's a prototypical small forward in the pros. He's somewhere between 6-7 and 6-8 with a huge wingspan (I swear his fingertips were touching the tops of his knees) and good athleticism.
His body type reminded me a little of the Pistons' Richard Hamilton. He's thin, but not too thin.
Sefolosha has earned a rep in Europe as a guy who does nothing great but everything well. That's what he showed Monday, as well.
He shot the ball very well from midrange all the way out to the NBA 3-point line. He was a little streaky at times with the long ball, but that's to be expected considering he started shooting from that far away only two days ago.
He's a very smooth player with an excellent handle and good court vision. He flies up and down the floor, uses his feet well and can really defend.
"I think the kid has the potential to be a Boris Diaw-type player down the road," one NBA international scout told me. "He's really got all the tools. He's not a huge scorer, but all the little things he does don't show up on the box score."
Look for Sefolosha to start getting attention from the Warriors at No. 9, the Hornets at No. 15, the Kings at No. 19, the Nets at No. 23, the Cavs at No. 25 and the Lakers at No. 26.
Darius Washington, Memphis: There isn't a lot to add about Washington after his workout Monday.
He obviously has an NBA-ready body and is very quick. He also knows how to score, both off the dribble and with the jump shot.
Washington also looked as though he had lost some weight and was in great playing condition.
The problem is that very few teams in the NBA believe he's a point guard. He has too much of a scoring mentality for the taste of many scouts. A mere workout can't change that impression.
He'll try to answer those questions when he plays in Orlando at the predraft camp. If he can change minds, he could sneak into the first round. If he can't, it isn't out of the question that he could slip out of the draft altogether.
Orlando update and false promises
posted: Friday, June 2, 2006 | Feedback
GMs are already grumbling about the quality of this year's Orlando camp. Official invites went out late last week, but a surprising number of bubble first-rounders are choosing not to participate this year.
While prospects still have a week to change their minds, at the moment it appears that Shannon Brown, Paul Davis, Guillermo Diaz, Alexander Johnson, Quincy Douby, Richard Roby, Dee Brown and Mike Gansey are all skipping the camp.
The feedback Shannon Brown has been getting from teams puts him solidly in the first round. He could go as high as No. 14 to the Jazz and is unlikely to slip past No. 26 to the Lakers. The Pacers at No. 17, the Kings at No. 19 and the Knicks at No. 20 are also possibilities.
Speaking of the Knicks and Brown, it appears that my source in New York may have fed me a bit of misinformation about him. Another source claims that Brown played very well in the workout -- so well that the Knicks decided to leak a little bad info. Too bad for Shannon -- as I said Thursday, the Knicks are not a great fit.
Johnson also has gotten strong feedback from his workouts, and it looks like he's got a great shot at going in Round 1. He's worked out well for the Nets, Bulls, Nuggets and Sonics. He's a legit possibility at No. 16 to Chicago and at No. 22 or No. 23 to the Nets.
Douby has the talent of a first-rounder and has been doing a lot of workouts to generally positive reviews. There are rumors he already has a first-round promise (see the next item below), but I have my doubts.
Diaz has been impressive in workouts, and there are a few teams that might draft him (starting with the Kings at No. 19 and the Lakers at No. 26). However, if a few things don't go his way, he could slip.
Dee Brown isn't a likely first-rounder at this point. However, given the serious injury he suffered at the camp last year, you can understand why he wouldn't want to risk injury again.
It seems that Davis, Roby and Gansey could help their stock by playing, which makes their decisions to skip the camp a little more puzzling.
Davis is the type of player who looks much better in a five-on-five game than he does in a workout. Roby and Gansey are just bubble guys at the moment.
So who is going to be there? There is no official list yet, but after talking to agents for a number of players, here's a look at who could be in:
James Augustine, Will Blalock, Curtis Stinson, Bobby Brown, Allan Ray, Denham Brown, Arron Afflalo, Steve Novak and Brad Newley.
Two other underclassmen who have not hired agents, UCLA's Jordan Farmar and UConn's Josh Boone, are still considering their options. I have my doubts that either will play.
Farmar is solidly in the first round. Boone may have been disappointing in a group workout in Chicago but seems to have found a team, the Knicks, willing to draft him in the first round. Multiple sources claim that both New York and New Jersey are seriously looking at taking him in the early 20s. If that's true, you can bet he'll skip Orlando and use a strained shoulder as the excuse.
• It's about this time of year that we start hearing rumors about promises or draft guarantees. Every year one or two of them turn out to be real. Most are bogus.
The first two players to get mentioned as possibly having guarantees are Rutgers guard Quincy Douby and Ukrainian forward Olexsiy Pecherov.
Pecherov's agent, Steve Heumann, told me on the phone that Pecherov does not have a deal in place.
"He's flying over to the U.S. and is starting individual workouts with teams," Heumann said. As Heumann pointed out, the fact that he's working out for several teams is an indication that no deal has been made.
Heumann's partner, Marc Fleisher, said they did have a place for Pecherov. "We do have a team who drafts later in the first round who wanted to shut him down," Fleisher said. "So I think I know the team he won't get past. But we felt like he's got the potential to go much higher once teams see him work out."
Fleisher, you may remember, represented Russian Yaroslav Korolev last spring. Korolev received a promise from the Clippers in May and was drafted No. 12 by L.A., as promised.
As for Douby, the rumor is that he hired an agent after receiving a promise from the Bulls at No. 16.
If that's true, why is he still working out for teams? Douby has more workouts scheduled the next few weeks, for teams both ahead of and below the Bulls. So it looks like this "promise" is bogus too.
• In an effort to get the latest and best info out, here is an update on Marcus Williams, formerly of UConn; at his workout in Houston on Tuesday, Williams weighed in at 215 pounds.
Last week I reported that Williams had weighed in at 220 for a workout in Boston. So, in the course of a week he's already shed five pounds.
The general consensus on the workout in Houston that also featured Mardy Collins and Guillermo Diaz was that everyone played well.
The weight issue for Williams might not be an issue after all.
At UConn, Williams was listed at 205, but three NBA execs said they think that was an underestimate. According to these sources, he was probably closer to 215 in college and still very effective. So, according to two of the executives, his weight really isn't much of an issue. Furthermore, as he continues to work out, his weight will probably get closer and closer to his ideal playing weight, they said.
"Would we like his body to be better? Sure," one NBA executive said. "But the guy is the smartest player in the draft. He knows how to play basketball. That's what you want in a point guard. The conditioning will get much better once he's in an NBA system. People were worried about the same thing with Deron Williams and Carmelo Anthony, and it turned into a nonissue. The kid has a chance to be special."
• We told you last week that Adam Morrison was working out for four teams. Here's his schedule: Charlotte on June 6, Portland on June 15, Chicago on June 19 and Toronto on June 21. Morrison will reserve the last week for workouts for any teams that might move up in the draft.
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Updated: June 7, 2006, 2:39 PM ET
10 to watch at the Orlando NBA pre-draft camp
Insider
Ford
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
Archive
ORLANDO, Fla. -- The first-ever Orlando pre-draft camp opened on Tuesday to a chorus of boos from NBA executives.
Many at the Milkhouse here at Disney's Wide World of Sports called it the worst pre-draft camp ever.
Jordan Farmar
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Farmar is trying to ice his first-round status with good play in Orlando.
Why the dour faces?
Moving the event from GM-friendly Chicago to kid-friendly Orlando was a major topic of conversation. But what really bothered them was a perceived lack of talent here.
Of the 62 players here, only one, UCLA's Jordan Farmar, is rated as a first-rounder in Insider's Mock Draft.
And 15 players ranked No. 31 or lower in Insider's Top 100 chose not to play.
Two players, Texas' Daniel Gibson and Cal's Leon Powe, pulled out of the camp on Tuesday.
Thirteen other players not currently ranked by Insider as first-rounders also took a pass. They include Pittsburgh's Aaron Gray, Colorado's Richard Roby, UConn's Josh Boone, Cincinnati's James White, Michigan State's Paul Davis, West Virginia's Mike Gansey, Illinois' Dee Brown, Nevada's Nick Fazekas, Arizona's Hassan Adams, UCLA's Arron Afflalo, UCLA's Ryan Hollins and West Virginia's Kevin Pittsnogle.
Another, Texas' P.J. Tucker, was unable to play because of injury. Add in a number of international players who are elsewhere because of team commitments or visa issues, along with the 30 players ranked in the first round, and there are roughly 50 draft-eligible players who aren't playing in Orlando.
That leaves about 10 draft spots for the 62 players who are here.
The lack of talent at the camp led to some frank dialogue among executives at the league's competition meeting here on Monday. Several executives told Insider that there was discussion about potentially dumping the draft camps altogether because of the number of top players who refuse to play in them.
Other executives argued that NBA teams should do away with individual workouts, forcing prospects to play in front of everyone if they want to be drafted. Others argued for the elimination of private workouts, meaning that any team that has a workout must notify and invite every other team in the league to attend.
"The system is broken," one NBA GM told Insider. "We've got to do something. No decisions were made because, frankly, no one can agree how to fix it. The only thing we agree on is that the system as it stands is broken."
Don't buy into all of the pessimism, however. There are a number of players here who could make a NBA roster.
It speaks to the depth of this year's draft that, even with 50 players not here, I could easily come up with 10 players who could work their way up the draft charts with a great camp and another 20 who could be second rounders.
Who will NBA GMs be watching? Insider polled a dozen executives to get the names of the players they're most interested in.
Jordan Farmar, PG, UCLA
Not only is Farmar the best prospect in the camp, he's the best one to play in a pre-draft camp in a while.
Farmar is a pure point guard who led UCLA to the NCAA championship game. He's ranked by many NBA teams as the second- or third-best point guard in the draft.
So why is he here? Because he's still unsure whether he's staying in the draft and wants to get all the information he can. If he plays well (scouts want to see him shoot the ball better and defend), he could move himself up the draft board. If he stinks, he'll be able to return to UCLA and work on his game. Either way, Farmar wins.
James Augustine, PF, Illinois
In a draft devoid of athletic bigs outside of the lottery, Augustine will be watched closely by executives. His numbers were never impressive at Illinois, but he always was overshadowed by Illinois' fantastic guards. The same thing could happen here in Orlando -- big men rarely fare well here because the guards dominate the ball. However, if he can show a little offense to go along with his nonstop motor and excellent athleticism, he could rise.
Will Blalock, PG, Iowa State
I've been slowly warming to Blalock all year, but it wasn't until last week at a workout in Chicago that I came away convinced that he could be an NBA player. Blalock has the right combination of court vision, athleticism, offensive skills and length to be a good point guard in the pros. And he really can defend. He could have a Luther Head-type rise if he plays well.
Bobby Brown, G, Cal-State Fullerton
Brown is in a similar situation to Blalock's. He is athletic, can score the ball and should look great in these types of showcases. Several teams already have come away impressed with his workouts. If he can show teams here that he's a true point guard, and not just a two guard in a point guard's body, he, too, has a shot of sneaking into the first round.
Paul Millsap, PF, Louisiana Tech
The guy led the NCAA in rebounding for three straight years, so why aren't more NBA people impressed? The early reports from his workouts were that he was not in great shape and he struggled. He also is going to measure short and isn't the best athlete in the world.
However, when Millsap is on, he's got the chance to be, at the very least, a Reggie Evans-type of player in the pros. All he needs to do is gather a ton of rebounds against the better competition here in camp and the buzz will follow.
Allan Ray, SG, Villanova
Next to Farmar, Ray might be the best player here. He's a very good shooter and an excellent athlete who can score off the dribble. He's undersized to play the two in the pros, but with the new rule changes, we're starting to see players like Ray excel. If he can show a good handle and good shot selection here, he'll get some buzz.
Darius Washington, G, Memphis
Washington was once ranked as the second-best high school point guard in the country behind Sebastian Telfair. However, after two solid seasons for Memphis, his stock actually has dropped.
Washington is strong, quick and athletic and he knows how to score. However, scouts see him as a 6-1 shooting guard, the second coming of Dajuan Wagner. He's going to have to resist the urge to drop 25 on one of these teams and settle for a few 10-assist games if he wants to move up.
Brad Newley, SG, Australia
Newley is a big-time scorer from Australia who won the NBL All-Star MVP award his rookie year. He's a good shooter, but what will surprise some people is his toughness and his ability to get to the basket. The big question for Newley -- how will he adjust to the speed and athleticism in the U.S. game?
Taj Gray, PF, Oklahoma State
Gray was pegged as a potential first-round prospect for most of the year. He's a good athlete who plays a coveted position.
His biggest problem? Scouts expected him to be a lot more dominant than he ended up being this season. His numbers actually slipped a little bit from those of his junior season.
Still, if Florida State's Alexander Johnson is getting first-round buzz, why can't Gray get some? His measurements might mean a lot more than how he plays on the floor.
Curtis Stinson, G, Iowa State
The guy had a great year. His scoring and assists were both impressive, but not impressive enough to convince scouts that he's a point guard at the next level. If he gets to play point here (unfortunately, he's been placed on the same roster with former teammate Blalock and another hot shot point guard, Gerry McNamara), he could really help his stock. But right now, it looks like he'll be stuck at the two. Sometimes you have to wonder what the camp organizers are thinking. Every NBA guy in the gym wants to see Stinson at the one.
Others to watch: Solomon Jones, F/C, South Florida; Steven Smith, SF, LaSalle; Marcus Slaughter, F, San Diego State; Pops Mensah-Bonsu, F, George Washington; Steve Novak, F, Marquette; David Noel, F, North Carolina; Morris Almond, G/F, Rice; Eric Hicks, F, Cincinnati; Dwyane Mitchell, G, Louisiana-Lafayette; Matt Haryasz, F, Stanford; Renaldo Balkman, F, South Carolina; Tedric Hill, F, Gulf Coast CC; Chris Quinn, PG, Notre Dame; Louis Amundson, F, UNLV; Bobby Jones, F, Washington; Viktor Keirou, G, Russia; Sean Dockery, G, Duke; Brandon Bowman, F, Georgetown; Denham Brown, G/F, UConn; Rashad Anderson, G, UConn; Daniel Horton, G, Michigan; J.P. Batista, F/C, Gonzaga
Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.
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Chris Broussard Blog:
The Heat just won't be beat
posted: Wednesday, June 7, 2006 | Feedback
I could easily make a case on paper for the Dallas Mavericks to beat Miami and win the NBA title.
I could point to their two thrashings of the Heat -- one by 13, one by 36 -- in the regular season.
I could point to their two big men -- DeSagana Diop and Erick Dampier -- who, while not world-beaters, have the size, defensive ability and 12 fouls to at least get in Shaq's way.
I could point out that their two quick and aggressive point guards, Jason Terry and Devin Harris, could have field days against Miami's perimeter defense. Detroit couldn't exploit that because Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton aren't slashers, but Harris will be at the rim aplenty (at least until Shaq or Zo puts him on his rump).
And, of course, I could point to Dirk Nowitzki, who is basically unguardable.
I admit that, on paper, there are reasons to believe Dallas will prevail.
But basketball is not played on paper. It's certainly not played in newspapers, where reporters always give us the obligatory matchup comparison in which the team that accumulates the most checkmarks is the supposed winner.
There are intangibles that factor into the outcome of basketball games and series. So as far as I'm concerned, folks can make like D-Wade on a breakaway and stuff their stats and their matchups and their theories.
I felt the same way when Phoenix faced the L.A. Clippers. I could have talked for hours about how the Clippers were equipped to beat the Suns, how they had the formula to destroy Phoenix. Heck, if Kwame Brown and Lamar Odom did damage inside, what would Elton Brand and Chris Kaman do?
Plus, the Clips had the savvy, veteran leadership of Sam Cassell, the slicing scoring of Corey Maggette, the outside shooting of Cuttino Mobley and Vladimir Radmanovic¸ and one of the best defenses in the league. They could play fast, play slow and play defense.
On paper, it was L.A. all the way.
But I had a feeling, a notion, something speaking to my heart, that told me Phoenix would win. So I picked the Suns in seven, and Voilà!
Well, that sneaking suspicion, that voice inside me, is back, and it's telling me to go with Miami in six.
Shaq's going to go crazy, especially against his favorite punch line, Dampier. D-Wade's going to go wild. 'Zo is going to contribute. J-Will will hit 3s. James Posey will be a defensive spark and drop some triples, as well. Antoine Walker will make 3s and plays at just the right time. Haslem will continue to be Pat Riley's black Kurt Rambis.
Heading into this season, there were only two questions about Miami: Will Shaq be healthy come playoff time, and will the Heat ever get all those egos on the same page? No one with a measurable hoops IQ questioned their talent because everyone knew Miami was loaded.
Well, both questions have been answered in the affirmative. Shaq is playing his best ball in two years, and the Heat are clicking at just the right time.
So nobody's beating them. Period.
I've heard a lot the past two weeks about what was wrong with Detroit. Admittedly, the Pistons did not play well, but when Miami's on top of its game (which it is), it's simply a better team than Detroit. So the Heat did not advance because the Pistons fell apart. They advanced because they're better. Pure and simple.
And they're better than Dallas, as well.
Put stock in the regular-season routs if you like, but do so at your own peril. Miami was just 2-12 against all division winners this season, including just 2-6 against New Jersey and Detroit. Yet the Heat whipped both in the playoffs.
This is a different Heat team from the one that worked out the kinks from November to March. Walker has settled in as the third option, forgetting about being a star and simply filling his role.
And I, for one, am tired of people sleeping on the dude. Folks act as if he's just a gunner, a scrub. Have you forgotten how he led Boston deep into the playoffs a few years back, and how he resurrected the Celtics after being traded from Atlanta last season. Walker is an All-Star-caliber player who can not only hit the 3 but also make great basketball plays by driving and dishing and rebounding.
Perhaps most important, he's giving 100 percent effort defensively for probably the first time in his career. He's still far from a solid defender, but his effort and energy are making up for many of his deficiencies on that end of the floor.
And speaking of that end of the floor, Shaq also is putting forth more effort than usual. He's guarding pick-and-rolls correctly about half the time, a huge increase for the Diesel.
Like the rest of the Heat players, those two have been motivated and inspired by Riley.
Beyond that, Shaq, 'Zo and G.P. are thoroughly psyched about getting the opportunity to win it all, so they're not about to let anyone in that locker room slack off or get out of line.
Strategically, Miami can win whether the pace is fast or slow. Folks who think the Heat can't run fail to realize they ranked sixth in the league in points per game (99.9) this season -- and that was when they weren't at their best.
The Mavericks -- for all those who think they're going to run Miami off the court -- actually scored less than the Heat, averaging just 99.1 ppg.
And Dallas' much improved defense? Yeah, it's 15 times better than the Charmin style the Mavs played for the past decade, but it is by no means stellar.
Dallas has no answer for Dwyane Wade. Trust me, Josh Howard can't hold him.
And look for Riley to tinker with the Heat offense if Diop and Dampier try to front Shaq in the post, as they often did with Tim Duncan.
Whenever one of the Mavs centers got on Duncan's hip and began to front, Ginobili, Parker or whoever had the ball on the wing drove baseline and got to the rim because the big man was no longer in position to cut him off at the baseline.
I'm sure Riley has recognized that and will tell Wade and Jason Williams to drive baseline whenever that happens. That will only make Wade even more unstoppable.
If all that's not enough to convince you, it might be as simple as this: There are three superstars on the court who are head and shoulders above everybody else, and two of them play for Miami.
Jump on the Mavericks' bandwagon if you like. Chalk the Heat's E.C. title up to Detroit's foibles if you will. Sleep on the Heat's supporting cast if you want.
But at the end of this series, you'll be saluting Miami, and screaming, "Dang, that Broussard sure knows his stuff."