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MaNuMaNiAc
06-08-2006, 03:37 PM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/gregory_sica/06/06/south.america/index.html



Who will step up in the South America-Europe rivalry?

It seems like an obvious fact, but it's still amazing: No World Cup has ever been won by a country outside of Europe or South America. In fact, nine of the 17 finals have been battles between representatives of each continent. This year's Cup isn't likely to be any different. In fact, the majority of the countries from the remaining four continents don't stand a chance, and it's more than likely that Brazil will win a record sixth championship. That would put South America two up on Europe.

Sounds easy, right? Not exactly.

The Europeans seem to have a notable advantage over their South American counterparts. Not only will the World Cup be played on European soil, but also the continent will be represented by 14 teams, compared to South America's four.

The World Cup has been hosted by a European nation on nine occasions, and all but one (Brazil in 1958, in Sweden) were won by Europeans. Realistically, South America's only hopes this year lie with Brazil and Argentina, countries that have won a combined seven Cups and look as strong as ever.

"It would be better if Ronaldinho is the star, while Argentina claims the World Cup, possibly defeating the Brazilians in the final," says Argentina's Lionel Messi. Has "The Flea" given us an insight into what might be the championship match?

It's much too early to anticipate Messi's dream final, but we can assess the possibilities of both sides, as well as those of fellow South Americans Paraguay and Ecuador.

Paraguay, which will take part in its third consecutive World Cup, knows that inexperience isn't an excuse anymore. Much of its squad participated in the '98 and '02 campaigns, when Paraguay bowed out in the round of 16 against top-quality opposition in France and Germany, respectively.

Traditionally defensive, Paraguay has kept its solidarity but has improved significantly in an attacking sense. The emergence of Roque Santa Cruz, Nelson Haedo Valdez and Julio Dos Santos makes the team more dynamic than in past World Cups. Head coach Anibal Ruiz has promised his side won't stay back too much, preferring to adopt attacking tactics in order to make the most of the speed he has up front.

Paraguay finds itself in what is likely to be a highly contested group that includes England, Sweden and debutantes Trinidad and Tobago. Although both European teams are favorites to advance to the second round, Paraguay has enough talent to proceed.

It's crucial that the Paraguayans have a positive result in its first group match against England, which should help facilitate its passage to the second round. Expect a compact Paraguay to play on the counterattack, while slowly advancing to control the midfield and looking for empty spaces to exploit England's defense.

Ecuador enters its second World Cup low with morale -- it has only won once in its past nine matches, including a disappointing 2-1 loss against lowly Macedonia last week. Signs don't look good for the Ecuadorians, although surprisingly, they have a good chance of advancing to the second round.

Besides host Germany, they face manageable competition in Poland and Costa Rica. A victory over the Poles in their opener is essential, although they must be aware that Poland is very quick on the counterattack, something La Tri struggles to cope with. The clash with Costa Rica promises to be an open contest, as both teams play a similar type of game. Ecuador is highly unlikely to upset the Germans on home soil.

Unless something goes very wrong, Brazil will win a historic sixth World Cup. This is by far the strongest team in the tournament. The Brazilians are brilliant in all aspects of their game, and it seems they can only get better. Although they faced relatively weak sides in preparation matches, they displayed some awesome attacking soccer. If that trend continues, it should get them through to the second round without breaking a sweat.

The Seleção is the team to beat, meaning that it is under enormous pressure. At 5-2 odds, there hasn't been such a clear favorite since the outstanding Brazil side of 1982, which won its group in style before being eliminated in the quarterfinals by eventual champion Italy.

The Brazilians are highly aware of the possible threat from their group opponents. In fact, they were held to draws by Croatia and Japan last year and often meet up with tough sides that are similar in characteristics to Australia. Still, Brazil is clearly superior to its rivals and should find its rhythm as early.

On paper, Argentina is the second-most capable side in the tournament. But that doesn't guarantee results. As was the case in '02, the Argentines find themselves in the Group of Death alongside Ivory Coast, the Netherlands and Serbia and Montenegro. It's going to be a fight, but the Albiceleste have a good chance to claim the top spot. In order for that to happen, head coach José Pekerman knows his team must not only play attractive soccer, but effective soccer as well.

For some reason, Argentina sees Ivory Coast as being its most difficult group opponent, while paying little attention to the Netherlands or Serbia, sides that are hoping to win back fans after their notable absences in '02.

Argentina looks particularly strong and demonstrated its depth in last week's clear 2-0 victory over Angola. The Argentines dominated the match with good collective play, as well as some early signs of things to come in the attack.

If South America is to retain its World Cup dominance, it will likely be up to Argentina or Brazil to work their magic. In Germany, that task is going to be a fun challenge to watch.