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10-14-2004, 12:55 PM
Player Spotlight: Jason Kidd
by Ted Carlson - Senior Editor, Fanball.com
Wednesday, October 13, 2004

Fanball colleague Court Mann discussed a common fantasy conundrum – Kings' power forward Chris Webber – in last week's Player Spotlight column, and our subject in this article – Nets' point guard Jason Kidd – embodies many of the same issues. However, fantasy owners will find that Kidd is an even tougher player to rank than C-Webb.

Like Webber, Kidd possesses first-round fantasy stats. Over his decade-long career, Kidd has averaged 14.3 points, 9.4 assists, 6.4 rebounds, and 2.1 steals. While his scoring and shooting stats have never been stellar, Kidd's amazing and consistent combination of assist, rebound, and steal numbers are unparalleled.

Unlike Webber, who has never played more than 76 games, Kidd has been fairly healthy throughout his career. The All-Star point guard has logged 77 or more games in six of his 10 campaigns and averaged 72 games per season. However, that track record is due to take a Ricky Williams-sized hit in the near future.

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While some may have thought Kidd was just trying to increase his New York street cred, the noticeable limp he displayed in last year's playoffs was not an act. The cartilage damage in his left knee, which also caused him to miss 15 regular season games, led to surgery on July 1. Dr. David Altchek performed micro-fracture operation on the joint – a newer procedure that carries a growing list of participants. Knicks' guards Allan Houston and Anfernee Hardaway, former Nets' teammate Kerry Kittles, Hornets' forward Jamal Mashburn, and (you guessed it) Webber have all undergone the operation.

As opposed to some of those listed above, though, Kidd's operation occurred on a non-weight-bearing area of his bone. That variation should make a difference in terms of recovery time and long-term effects. That being said, though, patience is the key to overcoming micro-fracture surgery – just ask the list of players named above.

"You have to be really careful with this type of surgery," Hardaway recently told the Oregonian. "You really have to give the procedure a chance to work and for the knee to heal. If you don't, you're asking for trouble."

Hardaway, who had the procedure done in May of 2000, attempted to return in January 2001 but ended up appearing in only four games that season.

"I don't think six months was enough time for it to heal. I'm just now feeling like I'm getting back to where I was."

Houston had his operation in June 2003, fought hard to return from the surgery, and logged 49 minutes in the 2003-04 season opener. That's a decision he now regrets. Houston played in just 50 games last year and saw his points-per-game dip from 22.5 to 18.5. As we write, Houston is still rehabbing his knee and may not be ready for the start of the upcoming campaign.

"It definitely set me back," Houston told the New York Post about returning early from the surgery. "I hadn't built a foundation, a strength. I deceived myself."

We reminded you of Webber's 2003-04 woes last week, and fantasy owners probably don't want to be reminded of Mashburn's lost campaign. The Hornets' All-Star appeared in only 19 games last season, and his knee still hurts so much that he will not play this year and might retire.

We're not trying to deny that Kidd will have a full recovery, and reports still suggest that he could return in early December. However, it's pretty clear that Jason would be wise not to push his rehab too hard, and judging by Kidd's training camp comments, does anyone think that the point guard will come back one day sooner than necessary?

Here are a couple of those comments, which were printed and reprinted in numerous publications:

"We know we're not going to win a championship this year or next year. I mean, not with the caliber of guys that we have right now."

"I've had dreams of being traded."

Kidd has been involved in trade rumors over the past few weeks, and the trade deadline is on February 24. All signs point towards the Nets doing what they can to deal Kidd to another squad before that time. However, Jason is only one year into a six-year, $90-plus million contract, and he carries obvious injury concerns. So, the trade process would go much more smoothly if Kidd could show that he's recovered from the micro-fracture operation. He doesn't need to play through December, January, and most of February to earn a (fairly) clean bill of health, though.

All of this adds up to a nightmare when it comes to ranking Kidd for the fantasy season ahead. If he returns in early December, Kidd might miss only 15-20 games. But what if waits until February 1, which means that he'd miss 44 games?

Dealing with this risk/reward conundrum, we've currently ranked Kidd right around 20th amongst guards, with some variation depending on format. Once the elite (Steve Francis, Baron Davis, Allen Iverson, Stephon Marbury, and Gilbert Arenas) and second-tier (Dwyane Wade, Sam Cassell, Andre Miller, Steve Nash, Jason Terry, Mike Bibby) point guards are gone, Kidd starts to look tempting in fantasy drafts. Usually this lands Kidd somewhere in the late fifth or early sixth round of a 10-team league – or right about the time that all the squads have established a solid core of players and are ready to take risks.

Those teams that land Kidd, though, obviously need to cover themselves by loading up with other capable guards to fill in while Jason is out.