Alberto Versus Wind Shear - Alberto Wins!

[Nbadan]

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2006/alberto2.jpg
And so it begins

Hurricane Warnings Issued


Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from Longboat Key (North of Sarasota) northward to the Ochlockonee River (South of Tallahassee) -- This includes the Tampa Bay/St. Pete area., Alberto is not a Hurricane yet, but may be upgraded later. Winds are now at 70MPH, just under Hurricane force.

The official forecast is now calling for a Category 1 hurricane making landfall, with winds of 75MPH at landfall. Alberto has won the war with the shearing.

The air force hurricane hunter plane found the center remofred northeast of where it was before, near the strongest convection, which means it may have some room for more strengthening, thus the hurricane warnings. Pressure has dropped to 997 mb.

Storm Surge will be more of an issue as well -- 8 to 10 feet in some areas east of where the system makes landfall. People in the coastal areas need to prepare now, and be prepared for this system. The Gulf coast in the warning area is a shallow shelf, and is very conductive to intensifying the effects of storm surge. If you are immediately along the coast east of the landfall point and in the warning area, I'd suggest leaving

FlHurricane (http://flhurricane.com/)

They were supposed to retire the names of major disasters, and there's already one named Alberto stirring in D.C.

Someone dropped the ball.

[MannyIsGod]

You're a dumbass.

[Nbadan]

You're a dumbass.

Is that all you got?

[Nbadan]

Let's see what ole Jeff Masters has to say about Alberto..


The latest report from the hurricane hunters found winds of 74 knots (85 mph) at flight level of 1500 feet, and a central pressure of 997 mb, down 4 mb from the 8am EDT penetration. After surviving some very strong wind shear last night, Alberto has reorganized, and a new center has formed under the deep convection on the east side of the storm. The old center is still visible on satellite imagery, drifting southward over the Gulf of Mexico. Spiral banding has appeared on both visible satellite imagery and the Tampa radar animation.

All this strengthening occurred in the face of strong wind shear of 20-30 knots, which is unusual. I was calling for a 10% chance of Alberto becoming a hurricane, but Alberto certainly has other ideas! The storm's central pressure was a very unimpressive 1006 mb last night when I thought the storm might get ripped apart, but the 9 mb drop in pressure since then is an impressive achievement for a storm under 20-30 knots of wind shear. The shear has not changed much in the past 12 hours, nor is it expected to do so over the next few days. This should limit Alberto's intensification. Hurricane Ophelia last year strengthened in the face of similar amounts of shear, and I anticipate that Alberto will grow no stronger than Ophelia. Maximum sustatined winds of 80 mph are probably the highest we will see from Alberto.

The major threat of damage with Alberto now appears to be storm surge, with a surge of 8 - 10 feet possible over portions of the west coast of Florida. The waters off the coast are very shallow for a long stretch, which allows a rather large surge to build up. High winds will be a problem for mobile homes, and cause moderate tree damage and power outages in the affected area. Heavy rain will also be a concern, but as I discussed yesterday, this may be more of a boon than a bane given Florida's moderate drought conditions. Rain amounts of up to six inches have fallen in portions of the Keys and Naples, Florida.

We'll update this blog later today as conditions warrant.

Jeff Masters
WUnderground (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=375&tstamp=200606)

Taking some of the sheer out of Manny's wind.

[MannyIsGod]

What wind is that? You're a dumbass. Look at the storm now. There's nothing to be worried about. Even Masters points out that the rain is needed.

YOU ARE A DUMBASS.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Sound the alarms!

[scott]

Good thing we had those mandatory evacuations.

[Trainwreck2100]

Way to go big guy

[Nbadan]

You weren't kidding, there are mandatory evacuations... :lol

By MITCH STACY


CEDAR KEY, Fla. Jun 13, 2006 (AP)— More than 20,000 people along Florida's Gulf Coast were ordered to clear out Monday as Alberto the first tropical storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season unexpectedly picked up steam and threatened to come ashore as a hurricane.

Forecasters posted a hurricane warning for the Gulf Coast and a tropical storm warning
from north of Daytona Beach to the Georgia-South Carolina line. Alberto, which could
begin battering the Gulf coast early Tuesday, was expected to cross through Florida and into Georgia.

--

Forecasters said Alberto would probably become only a weak Category 1 hurricane, meaning winds of 74 mph to 95 mph, because the warm water from which hurricanes draw their strength is not particularly deep in the area.

At 2 a.m. EDT, Alberto was centered about 85 miles west-southeast of Cedar Key, and
was moving northeast near 10 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. Its top sustained winds were at 65 mph.

ABC News (http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2069244)

[scott]

Sadly, I expect several unncessary evacuations this summer. Better safe than sorry I suppose.

[MannyIsGod]

People don't need to evacuate in most cases from a Cat 1 hurricane. A better safe than strategy is fine, but we don't need to go overboard.

[xrayzebra]

Hell manny, dan is savoring the fact he "almost" got it right. Except he didn't.