Nbadan
10-14-2004, 06:29 PM
Dow's Decline Points to Possible Kerry Victory: John Dorfman
Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- If the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues its current decline, we may be inaugurating John Kerry as president.
That's a prediction based on data developed by James Stack, a market pundit from Whitefish, Montana. Stack notes that in 24 of the 26 U.S. presidential elections since 1900, the direction of the stock market in the two months preceding the vote accurately predicted the election.
A gain in the Dow Jones Industrials predicted a victory by the incumbent party. If the Dow fell, the incumbent party lost. The only two exceptions were 1956 (when the Dow dropped 2.8 percent but Dwight D. Eisenhower won re-election) and 1968 (when the Dow rose 3.1 percent but Hubert Humphrey and the incumbent Democrats lost to Richard Nixon).
So far, the Dow has a total return of negative 1.9 percent after dividends from Sept. 2 through Oct. 12.
Politics and stocks intersect in two ways. You can buy stocks that may get a short-term or intermediate-term lift from one candidate's victory. Or you can watch stocks in the days leading up to the election to see if the market is giving a hint as to who will win.
...the rest of the article is at:
Bloomberg (http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_dorfman&sid=a4v7LzsIOS9M)
The big money is starting to talk and its saying, "Kerry"
Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- If the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues its current decline, we may be inaugurating John Kerry as president.
That's a prediction based on data developed by James Stack, a market pundit from Whitefish, Montana. Stack notes that in 24 of the 26 U.S. presidential elections since 1900, the direction of the stock market in the two months preceding the vote accurately predicted the election.
A gain in the Dow Jones Industrials predicted a victory by the incumbent party. If the Dow fell, the incumbent party lost. The only two exceptions were 1956 (when the Dow dropped 2.8 percent but Dwight D. Eisenhower won re-election) and 1968 (when the Dow rose 3.1 percent but Hubert Humphrey and the incumbent Democrats lost to Richard Nixon).
So far, the Dow has a total return of negative 1.9 percent after dividends from Sept. 2 through Oct. 12.
Politics and stocks intersect in two ways. You can buy stocks that may get a short-term or intermediate-term lift from one candidate's victory. Or you can watch stocks in the days leading up to the election to see if the market is giving a hint as to who will win.
...the rest of the article is at:
Bloomberg (http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_dorfman&sid=a4v7LzsIOS9M)
The big money is starting to talk and its saying, "Kerry"