Game 5 predictions

[Mavs<Spurs]

This series is kind of reminding a little bit of the Spurs/Pistons final last year.

Home team looks unbeatable.

I thought at first that Heat would beat the Mavs because the Heat would have higher percentage shots and they had 2 stars vs 1 star (and more depth and balance).

However, I knew the Heat turned the ball over a lot and that the Mavs were deep and athletic at the 2 and that the Heat didn't defend the screen and roll well and that the Heat would be in serious trouble if Shaq got in foul trouble.

I think that those factors were decisive in each game.

By the time it appears that one team has momentum, the series moves to the other team's home court. So, predicting the next game based upon momentum isn't accurate.

I am going to say (and watch me be totally wrong again on this series) that Dallas will bounce back and win game 5 by less than 10 and that Dirk will score 40 points and grab 10 rebounds.

Dallas was humiliated in game 4. That will motivate them. A big rout of a good opponent is often worse for the winner than a close win since the winner often becomes overconfident and the loser is angry and wants revenge.

If game 5 were in Dallas, I think Miami would be crushed. In Miami, it will be a competitive game.

Other opinions?

[dirk4mvp]

I thinks it's a must win. Nobody wants to be down 3-2, even with HCA. Dirk is gonna come out of his shell.

[Darrin]

106-105 in overtime. Antoine Walker misses the 3-pointer for the win. The Heat rebound and win game 6, and the Mavs close out the Heat in seven on their home floor.

Yea.

[Mavs<Spurs]

I can see that, Darrin.

Walker is one of the Mavs best players.

Game 5 (or better game 7), Mavs lead by 1, 23 seconds left on the shot clock and the game clock, Walker has the ball, he's tripled team near mid court, he heaves a 3, the backboard breaks...

[bulletedge]

It all depends on which Dallas team shows up. Not to mention Dirk.

I don't think that Miami is in Dallas' head as much as they are in their own head. Dirk knows much better than any of us how shitty he is shooting. And the Mavs know better than us how badly they have sucked since being up by 13 with six minutes to go in game 3. They know they have choked.

Gut check time for Dirk & Dallas. If they play like they did against the Spurs- or even the Suns- Dallas will pull this series out of the fire. If they don't get a handle on the mental aspect of the game and rediscover some confidence, it will be Miami in a cakewalk.

[Budkin]

I think it's gonna be a super tight game, much like Game 5 last year. If Miami pulls it out, they will have a decent chance to close out the series in Game 6, since the trophy will be in their grasp. If Dallas wins, this series is definitely over in Game 6 when the Mavs can close it out on their home floor.

[Extra Stout]

Mavs win Game 5 by 1.

[dirk4mvp]

JET will have game winning dunk to put the Mav's up by 15.

[Shank]

I have no idea now.

[Extra Stout]

JET will have game winning dunk to put the Mav's up by 15.
???

Are dunks worth 16 points now?

[MadDog73]

JET will have game winning dunk to put the Mav's up by 15.


???

Are dunks worth 16 points now?

:lol

[dirk4mvp]

???

Are dunks worth 16 points now?
No I just figured after he dunks, the refs will call 28 techs (they'll hit half of the ft's) on the Mavs and we'll be up 1 point.

[kalikot_boy_kr]

im praying mavs will go fishing! they are not a model of the basketball.....hehehe! so suck mavs suck!

[Mavs<Spurs]

I think it's gonna be a super tight game, much like Game 5 last year. If Miami pulls it out, they will have a decent chance to close out the series in Game 6, since the trophy will be in their grasp. If Dallas wins, this series is definitely over in Game 6 when the Mavs can close it out on their home floor.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking.

Extrastout has it close also.

What's also funny is that when you look back, it makes sense. (Hindsight is still 20-20).

Heat aren't a great road team and their weaknesses were therefore fatal in games 1 and 2.
Dallas would come in confident and play well in game 3. Wade has saved the Heat in the fourth and the change of venue would help change the momentum. After game 3's narrow win, the pressure would lessen some for Miami, they would gain some more confidence and the fact that they were back at home would give them a big win in as much as it was also natural for Dallas to have a let down on the road after their narrow loss in game 3 and the opportunity that was there for them.


In that vein, Dallas will be motivated by their poor performance in game 4, but at home the Heat won't be blown out (probably).

However, Heat are a good home team and Wade is capable of putting up these kinds of huge numbers and carrying them, especially when Shaq steps up like he did in game 4.

I will be very surprised if either team blows out the other team. If the Heat could only keep their turnovers down, they would be really tough to beat.

and then like the other poster I quoted says could have it exactly right:

a Heat win in game 5 and they know that all they have to do is win 1 game and they are the world champs. In that 1 game, Shaq could completely dominate as can Wade. And I really can see Wade as the player more likely to dominate in contrast to Dirk because of the nature of Wade's game. And in 1 game, Shaq could put up one of his old monster games (vintage)

Game 5 is a must win game for Heat to win the Finals. It isn't quite as much of a must game for Dallas since it is possible for them to win games 6 and 7 at home. Nevertheless, a Dallas loss in game 5 does mean it is more likely that Miami will win the Finals than Dallas. So, at this point we might look at Dallas as the underdog if Dallas doesn't win game 5, meaning Dallas isn't done if they lose game 5 but the probability is that they will not win the finals.

[awmyplace]

im praying mavs will go fishing! they are not a model of the basketball.....hehehe! so suck mavs suck!

Lol!

[Mavs<Spurs]

Lol!


I may be the only poster here that likes Shaq and Wade and even if they weren't playing the Mavs, I would go for them after the Spurs and after the Pistons.

But why do you all have to turn the ball over so much?

[kalikot_boy_kr]

my choice " i hate it".....hahhaha!

[Mavs<Spurs]

Who are the main culprits in terms of turning the ball over (Heat players)?

Is it Shaq and Wade?

Is this due to the fact that they handle the ball a lot?

Tim has high turnover games too.